Key USDA Acreage, Grain Stocks Reports Released Friday

Biden on Monday will launch Investing in America roadshow; What’s next for Russia, Putin?

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June 25, 2023 01:25 PM

Biden on Monday will launch Investing in America roadshow; What’s next for Russia, Putin?

Washington Focus

Congress is out two weeks for the July Fourth holiday. The chambers will hold pro forma sessions occasionally, which blocks the White House from making “recess appointments” to government positions. During these sessions, no business will be conducted.

President Joe Biden on Monday will launch the Investing in America roadshow with a big infrastructure funding announcement at the White House. This will kick off a three-week tour of the country, where Biden will be joined by vice-president Kamala Harris and senior cabinet members to trumpet the administration’s achievements and plans to replace creaking infrastructure, boost manufacturing capacity and nurture clean energy technology development.

Russia pulled back from the brink of a crisis after a deal was reached to end an insurrection by thousands of Wagner fighters who were advancing toward Moscow. The abrupt about-face follows a rare, remarkable challenge to the Kremlin that threatened to plunge the country into chaos and destabilize its already stumbling war efforts in Ukraine. We issued three special reports on the topic (Link, Link, Link). The last report wraps it all up, including some analysis and topics to watch ahead.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the U.S. has seen “more cracks emerge in the Russian facade” after mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin posed a “direct challenge to Putin’s authority” in his rebellion against Moscow’s military. Following an armed revolt against Russia that lasted less than 36 hours, Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group that had long been at odds with Vladimir Putin’s military forces, on Saturday ordered his troops to turn back from their march on Moscow, abandoning their rebellion to avoid bloodshed. In an interview on NBC News’ Meet the Press, Blinken said that “what we’ve seen is Russia having to defend Moscow, its capital, against mercenaries of its own making,” adding that “in and of itself, that’s extraordinary… We’ve also seen rise to the surface profound questions about the very premises for this Russian aggression against Ukraine that Prigozhin surfaced very publicly, as well as a direct challenge to Putin’s authority,” he said. Blinken added: “So I think we’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian facade. It is too soon to tell exactly where they go, and when they get there, but certainly we have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead.”

“Prigozhin himself, in this entire incident, has raised profound questions about the very premises for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in the first place,” Blinken said during a Face the Nation interview, referring to a video in which Prigozhin said Russian leaders had lied to the public about the rationale for last year’s invasion.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announces results of its annual stress tests. This year’s framework examines how American banks would cope with a severe global recession and extra strain in property markets. For the first time the biggest banks have been subjected to an additional market shock of greater inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, Jerome Powell takes part in a panel discussion Wednesday at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, along with the heads of the central banks of Britain, the euro area and Japan.

The Supreme Court, in an 8-1 ruling Friday, revived the Biden administration’s immigration guidelines that prioritize which noncitizens to deport, dismissing a challenge from Texas and Louisiana, which argued the policies conflicted with immigration law.

More SCOTUS rulings are expected Tuesday.

Monday, June 26

• National security, global supply chains and global instability. The Institute of World Politics (IWP) holds a discussion on “Policy to Practice: Revitalizing National Security Amidst Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Economic Instability.”

• Columbia River Power System. House Natural Resources Water, Wildlife and Fisheries field hearing on “The Northwest at risk: the environmentalist’s effort to destroy navigation, transportation, and access to reliable power.”

• Cosmetics, medical devices. The Washington International Trade Association (WITA) holds a virtual FDA Boot Camp event on “New Cosmetics Regulations and the Latest on Food, Drugs and Medical Devices,” the last of a three-part series.

• Dams and fish biodiversity. The Henry L. Stimson Center holds a virtual discussion on “Dam Development and Fish Biodiversity Loss,” as part of the Mekong Water Data Hour series.

• Water management and climate. The Middle East Institute (MEI) holds a virtual discussion on “Water Management and Environmental Sustainability,” as part of Climate Week, June 26-30.

• Ukraine situation impact on asylum policies. The Brookings Institution holds a virtual discussion on “Asylum in Europe: Can the Ukraine response shape a better policy approach?”

• Development in Latin America, Caribbean. The Atlantic Council holds a discussion on “Unlocking Development in LAC (Latin America and the Caribbean): What Role and Opportunities for the Private Sector.”

• Europe defense. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual discussion on a new report titled “Transforming European Defense.”

Tuesday, June 27

• European Central Bank event. The European Central Bank holds its 2023 Forum on Central Banking with the theme “Macroeconomic stabilization in a volatile inflation environment;” (runs through Wednesday). European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivers introductory remarks.

• National strategy on hunger, nutrition. The U.S. Centers For Disease Control and Prevention holds a meeting of the President’s Council on Sports, Fitness & Nutrition, with a focus on implementing the National Strategy on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health, including supporting the White House Challenge to End Hunger and Build Healthy Communities; raising awareness about the importance of mental health as it pertains to physical fitness and nutrition; promoting the implementation of the National Youth Sports Strategy; revitalizing the Presidential Youth Fitness Program; and the launch of the Physical Activity Guidelines Midcourse Report: Implementation Strategies for Older Adults.

• U.S./China policy outlook. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) holds a virtual discussion on “The Future of U.S./China Policy.”

• Tech race with China. The Atlantic Council holds a discussion on “Tech Race with China: Toward a Comprehensive Strategy.”

• Clean Air Act. Environmental Protection Agency holds a meeting of the Clean Air Act Advisory Committee on economic, environmental, technical, scientific and enforcement policy issues associated with implementation of the Clean Air Act of 1990. Runs through Thursday.

• Nuclear competition between the U.S., China and Russia. The Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program holds a discussion on “Tripolar Instability: Nuclear Competition Among the United States, Russia, and China.”

• National supply chains. The Government Executive Media Group’s Federal Computer Week (FCW) holds its virtual Supply Chain Workshop. Jeanette McMillian, assistant director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center Supply Chain and Cyber Directorate, participates in a keynote interview.

• Semiconductors. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) holds a virtual discussion on “Semiconductor Policy Collaboration Among Like-Minded Countries,” focusing on Japan.

• Solidarity in Europe over Ukraine. The National Endowment for Democracy (NED) holds a discussion on “Ukraine: How to Maintain the Solidarity and Unity In Europe?”

• Renewable energy. International Trade Administration holds a meeting of the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Advisory Committee on the development and administration of programs and policies to expand the export competitiveness of U.S. renewable energy and energy efficiency products and services.

• USDA equity issues. USDA holds a meeting by teleconference of the Equity Commission’s Agriculture and the Rural Community Economic Development (RCED) Subcommittee, with a focus on reviewing USDA programs, services, and policies for the purpose of making recommendations for how USDA can improve access and advance equity. Runs through Thursday.

• Drone issues. D-Fend Solutions holds a virtual discussion on “Fighting the Domestic Drone Danger: Incidents, Legislation, Technology and Tools.”

• Trade and decarbonization. The Atlantic Council holds a virtual discussion on “Post G7 Summit: Advancing industrial decarbonization & climate-aligned trade.”

• Consumers and digital finance. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a discussion on “Creating a Consumer-Centric Digital Finance Ecosystem.”

• Climate-related financial risks. The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on “Assessing insurance regulation and supervision of climate-related financial risk.”

• AI and retail customers. The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) holds a virtual discussion on “The Generative AI (Artificial Intelligence) Moment: Implications for Retail and Customer Sectors.”

• Bioenergy, carbon capture and storage. Resources for the Future (RFF) and the Energy Futures Initiative (EFI), hold a discussion on “Policy Roadmap to Accelerate Responsible BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) Deployment.”

• Ukraine’s economic recovery. Washington Post Live holds a virtual discussion on “Ukraine’s Economic Recovery.”

• California off-road engine emissions standards. Environmental Protection Agency holds a meeting by teleconference on California’s nonroad engine pollution control standards for small off-road engines.

Wednesday, June 28

• Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2023; Sintra, Portugal, with Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England; Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank; and Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan.

• U.S./Russia policy. The Atlantic Council holds a virtual discussion on “How Should the U.S. Reshape its Russia Policy?”

• USDA equity issues. Second day of USDA’s meeting by teleconference of the Equity Commission’s Agriculture and the Rural Community Economic Development (RCED) Subcommittee. Runs through Thursday.

• Central bank digital currencies. The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) holds a virtual discussion on “Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) Projects Gradually Take Shape.”

• Clean Air Act. Day two of Environmental Protection Agency meeting of the Clean Air Act Advisory Committee on economic, environmental, technical, scientific and enforcement policy issues associated with implementation of the Clean Air Act of 1990.

• Maritime transport issues. Maritime Administration holds a meeting of the U.S. Maritime Transportation System National Advisory Committee to develop and discuss advice and recommendations for the U.S. Department of Transportation on issues related to the marine transportation system. Runs through Thursday.

• South China Sea conference. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds its 13th annual South China Sea Conference.

• U.S./China relations. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) holds a virtual discussion on “Stabilizing U.S./China Relations.”

• Bipartisan cooperation. The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) holds a virtual discussion on “Divided Government: How the White House and Congress Can Work Together.”

• War in Ukraine. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) holds a virtual discussion on “Beyond the Counter-offensive: Where Is Ukraine Headed?”

• Pandemic preparedness. Health and Human Services Department holds a stakeholder listening session by teleconference of the Office of Global Affairs for the Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB) to draft and negotiate a WHO convention, agreement or other international instrument on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response.

• Africa and the war in Ukraine. The Atlantic Council holds a virtual discussion on “Stepping into focus: Africa, BRICS, and the war in Ukraine.”

• Food security and nutrition. U.S. Agency For International Development holds a meeting by teleconference of the Board for International Food and Agricultural Development on plans to propose a Subcommittee on Minority Serving Institution Engagement and Leadership in USAID’s Agricultural, Food Security, and Nutrition Programming.

• Extreme weather and disaster preparedness. Washington Post Live holds a virtual discussion on “How Extreme Weather Events are Testing Disaster Preparedness and Resilience.”

• Commercial real estate market. The American Bar Association’s (ABA) Real Estate Law Committee holds a virtual discussion on “The Current State of the Commercial Real Estate Market.”

Thursday, June 29

• Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a dialogue with Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos at the Banco de España Fourth Conference on Financial Stability; Madrid, Spain.

• IPEF. International Trade Administration holds a meeting of the President’s Export Council to discuss the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity and strengthening US leadership in technology and innovation.

• Critical minerals trade. The Washington International Trade Association (WITA) holds a virtual discussion on “Critical Minerals: From When They Will Come?”

• USDA equity issues. Final day of USDA’s meeting by teleconference of the Equity Commission’s Agriculture and the Rural Community Economic Development (RCED) Subcommittee.

• Maritime transportation. Final day of the Maritime Administration meeting of the US Maritime Transportation System National Advisory Committee to develop and discuss advice and recommendations for the Department of Transportation on issues related to the marine transportation system.

• North Korea. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual discussion on “What is Next for North Korea?”

• War in Ukraine. The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds its National Security Symposium, focusing on “the legal, practical, and policy implications of the war between Russia and Ukraine.”

• Dangers of fireworks. The Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) holds an event to demonstrate fireworks dangers and release statistics on fireworks-related deaths and injuries.

• Peace in the Pacific. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) holds a virtual discussion on “Peace in the Pacific.”

• Hydrogen supply chains. International Trade Administration holds a virtual roundtable discussion on challenges and opportunities for strengthening the supply chain and export competitiveness of the US hydrogen industry.

• Food justice. The Aspen Institute holds a virtual discussion on “Food Justice: Race and Water Equity.”

• Fiscal outlook and the debt limit deal. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) holds a virtual discussion on “The Fiscal Outlook After the Debt Limit Deal.”

• China critical mineral supply chains in Africa. The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) holds a discussion on “China’s Critical Mineral Supply Chains in Africa.”

• Student loan forgiveness. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) holds a discussion on “Student Loan Forgiveness in the Supreme Court.”

Friday, June 30

• Science policy and Covid. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) holds a discussion on “Science Policy After the COVID-19 Crisis.”

• Hong Kong National Security Law. The Hudson Institute holds a virtual discussion on “The Third Anniversary of the Hong Kong National Security Law.”

• Climate resilience and cities. The Middle East Institute (MEI) holds a virtual discussion on “Climate Resilience and Sustainability in Cities.”

• Immigration policy. The Cato Institute holds a policy forum on “Private Sponsorship: Revolution in Immigration Policy.”

Economic Reports for the Week

In the U.S, the spotlight will be on the Federal Reserve’s Bank Stress Test results and data on Wednesday, personal income and spending, as well as the PCE price indexes.

In Asia, focus will be on China’s June NBS Manufacturing PMI for the latest insights on the underwhelming economic recovery since the end of pandemic lockdowns in February. Investors will also keep an eye for the country’s industrial profits for May.

Monday, June 26

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey: The activity index is expected to post a 14th straight negative score, at a consensus minus 26.5 in June versus minus 29.1 in May which, for a third month in a row, was much deeper than expected.
Carnival reports second-quarter fiscal-2023 results.

Tuesday, June 27

Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for May. Economists forecast that new orders for manufactured durable goods declined 1% from April to $280 billion.
Census Bureau reports new home sales data for May. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 659,000 new single-family homes sold, 24,000 fewer than in April. The median sales price was $420,800 in April, 15.3% less than the record high of nearly $500,000 from last October.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Forecasters see the adjusted 20-city monthly rate rising 0.5 percent in April to match a 0.5 percent increase in March for unadjusted annual contraction of 2.3 percent versus March contraction of 1.1 percent.
FHFA House Price Index: The house price index, which has rebounded, has beaten consensus substantially the last three reports in a row. After March’s 0.6 percent gain, forecasters see the index climbing 0.4 percent in April.
The Consumer Confidence Index is expected to rebound slightly in June to a 103.7 consensus versus May’s 102.3 which was better than expected but still down 1.4 points from April. This index has sat at depressed levels for the past year.
Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index in June is not expected to emerge from five prior months of contraction, at a consensus minus 10 versus minus 15 in May.
Jefferies Financial Group and Walgreens Boots Alliance announce earnings. Delta Air Lines holds its 2023 investor day.

Wednesday, June 28

MBA Mortgage Applications
Federal Reserve releases the results of its annual stress test of the nation’s largest lenders. The test is a key factor in determining how much banks can return to shareholders via stock buybacks and dividends as it sets the capital cushion that banks must maintain to withstand a series of market and economic shocks. Banks with $100 billion or more in assets are subject to the stress test, with larger banks required to participate annually, and banks with $100 to $250 billion in assets required to participate every other year.
The U.S. goods deficit (Census basis) is expected to narrow by $4.6 billion to $92.5 billion in May after widening by a very steep $14.5 billion in April to $97.1 billion.
Wholesale inventories are expected to be unchanged in the advance report for May that would follow a 0.1 percent draw in April.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2023; Sintra, Portugal, with Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England; Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank; and Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan.
Micron Technology reports third-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The company is expected to lose $1.58 per share on sales of $3.7 billion, compared with a profit of $2.59 a share on $8.6 billion of revenue a year earlier. Yet, Micron stock is up 31% this year on hopes that demand has bottomed. General Mills releases fourth-quarter fiscal-2023 results.

Thursday, June 29

Consensus Outlook
Jobless claims for the June 24 week are expected to come in at 270,000 versus a second straight and noticeably elevated 264,000 in the two prior weeks and 262,000 the week before that.
Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its third and final estimate of gross-domestic-product growth for the first quarter. Expectations are for GDP to have increased at an annual rate of 1.4%, a tenth of a percentage point more than the BEA’s second estimate from late May.
Pending home sales in May, which in April were unchanged, are expected to fall 0.6%.
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply
Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in a dialogue with Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos at the Banco de España Fourth Conference on Financial Stability; Madrid, Spain.
McCormick, Nike, and Paychex host conference calls to discuss earnings.

Friday, June 30

BEA reports personal income and expenditures for May. The consensus call is for income to rise 0.4% month over month, matching the April data. Spending is seen increasing 0.3%, following a 0.8% gain in April. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the core personal-consumption expenditures price index, is expected to increase 4.7% year over year, unchanged from April.
Institute for Supply Management releases the Chicago Business Barometer for June. Economists forecast a 44.2 reading, almost four points more than in May. The index has had nine consecutive readings below the expansionary level of 50.
Consumer sentiment is expected to end June at 63.9, unchanged from June’s mid-month flash and up nearly 4 points from May.
Constellation Brands reports first-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

Focus: USDA releases Acreage, Grain Stocks data Friday, June 30. Statistics Canada will publish its seeded area report for several crops, such as wheat, barley and soybeans, on Wednesday, while the International Grains Council is scheduled to release its monthly report on Thursday.

On the energy front, the Energy Institute publishes its global energy outlook on Monday. A European Council starting Thursday will focus on issues including the region’s economy and the war in Ukraine.

Monday, June 26

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Crop Progress
Peanut Stocks and Processing
Poultry Slaughter
Holiday: Russia