Key Reports This Week: U.S. Farm Income on Thursday, Jobs Report on Friday

— A Continuing Resolution (CR) will be needed to avoid a gov’t shutdown as lawmakers are late (again) in dealing with the new fiscal year (FY) spending — in this case, Fiscal Year 2025 which begins Oct. 1. With limited progress on passing full appropriations bills, Congress will need to pass a CR to temporarily fund the government and avoid an Oct. 1 shutdown. Key points of contention for a CR include length of the CR (before or after the 2024 election), funding levels, and inclusion of any policy riders. Some House Republicans want to include provisions aimed at prohibiting noncitizens from voting in local elections, though they face opposition from Democrats and are unlikely to become law in their current form due to the Democratic-controlled Senate and White House.

— Expiration of 2017 tax cuts could raise taxes nationwide by 2025. If Congress doesn’t act by the end of 2025, the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts will result in higher income taxes for most households across the U.S. — urban or rural, wealthy or poor — but the amounts vary, as the map below shows, according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation. The increase would affect every county, though the impact would vary. Both parties agree on the need to prevent these tax hikes, but differ on the approach: Republicans advocate for extending all the tax cuts, while Democrats want to maintain reductions only for households earning under $400,000 annually.

“This is every bit as important to rural America as it is to urban America,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) told the Wall Street Journal (link), noting the benefits of faster write-offs for capital investment that were part of the law. Looking at households’ tax cuts as a share of income, he said, misses the broader benefit of the law’s benefits for small businesses that employ residents of his state. “Whether you’re an employee or the employer, rather than paying taxes on that money, being able to share it with your employees has to be a good thing,” Marshall said. “I’m absolutely convinced that the Trump tax cuts led to this concept of a rising tide floating all ships, that our economy grew because of those.”

(Tax Foundation, WSJ)

— How Trump can win. Based on the results of the 2020 map and internal assessments by the Trump campaign, Trump could return to the White House by simply recapturing the swing-state trifecta of Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Under that scenario, the former president could lose multiple battleground states, including Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and still win re-election.

— How Kamala Harris’ position changed on fracking.

• In a 2019 CNN climate town hall as a presidential candidate, Harris said “there’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking.”
• In the CNN short interview on Thursday, Harris said she has since changed her mind, and “I made that clear on the debate stage in 2020,” presumably referring to her vice-presidential debate with Mike Pence.
• But at that debate, Harris didn’t actually say she changed her own position on the issue — instead she said then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “will not end fracking.”
• When asked Thursday about what caused her to drop her support for a nationwide fracking ban, Harris deflected, saying: “Well, let’s be clear. My values have not changed.” As the Wall Street Journal notes, Harris then “falsely claimed she cast ‘the tie-breaking vote that actually increased leases for fracking as vice president.’” The WSJ adds Harris’ remarks were a reference to the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes a provision that requires the government to hold offshore oil lease sales as a condition for auctioning offshore wind-farm leases. “West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin inserted that provision in an effort to force the Biden administration to hold more oil-lease sales, which it had slow-walked. But the bill didn’t increase fracking.”
• Harris didn’t explicitly say why her position on fracking changed, but said she now believes “we can grow and we can increase a thriving clean energy economy without banning fracking.”

Of note: About two-thirds of U.S. oil production today comes from fracking, short for hydraulic fracturing. It is an oil and gas extraction technique that involves injecting rocks with a mix of water, sand and chemicals, giving producers the ability to get oil and gas from shale rocks which they couldn’t before.

Pennsylvania is a must-win state for Harris on her path to 270 electoral votes. Pennsylvania wasn’t a big natural gas producing state until the advent of fracking. The state had nearly 18,000 people working in mining and fuel extraction in 2022. Thus, the importance of energy policy relative to Pennsylvania and the Nov. 5 election.

— Does Harris have an authenticity problem? Harris is strategically shifting toward the political center to appeal to moderate voters, a move that may alienate progressives but is deemed necessary for winning key battleground states in the upcoming election. This shift includes abandoning previously held left-leaning positions on issues like fracking, Medicare-for-All, and immigration. While Harris’ centrist approach is gaining support from moderate Democrats, it also raises concerns about her authenticity, a vulnerability Republicans are likely to exploit in the campaign.

— North Carolina is shaping up to be a closer than expected state for both presidential candidates. Here is perspective on that state from Nate Silver:

(Nate Silver Bulletin )

— Debate timelines:
• Trump and Harris are still scheduled to debate on Sept. 10 on ABC News.
• Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance and Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, are set to debate on Oct. 1 on CBS News.

— Harris again proposed Saturday that former President Donald Trump agree to unmuted microphones for their debate on ABC, as Democrats still hope to lure Trump into a format that they believe could exploit his temper. Harris tweeted Saturday her and Trump should debate “in a transparent way — with the microphones on the whole time,” doubling down on her campaign’s belief the former president’s “intemperate outbursts” will spell trouble for him in a hot microphone debate. The demand comes after Trump’s and President Joe Biden’s campaigns both agreed to rules establishing muted microphones for the candidates while they are not speaking earlier in the year. But Trump told reporters this week he preferred hot microphones and did not like the muted microphones in his debate against President Joe Biden in June, according to Reuters, seeming to disagree with Jason Miller, his longtime adviser. The debate rules also call for no audience members and provide candidates with two minutes to answer questions and provide rebuttals, according to the Washington Post. Hot microphones could make for a more unpredictable debate, as it opens the event up to interruptions and off-the-cuff comments from the candidates.

— Larry Hogan in dead heat with Angela Alsobrooks for Maryland Senate seat. Former Maryland GOP Governor Larry Hogan is in a close race with Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for a U.S. Senate seat, aiming to become the first Republican to win a Maryland Senate seat in 44 years. Hogan, distancing himself from Donald Trump, is leveraging his popularity as a two-term governor, particularly among older voters concerned about the economy. Polls show the race tied at 46-46, with Alsobrooks gaining traction as her campaign ramps up. The outcome could have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate, with Democrats holding a narrow majority. CNN political analyst David Axelrod posted on X: “’I’d still bet on the Dem, Angela Alsobrooks, but Hogan, an R, is currently defying gravity.” Early voting begins Oct. 24, and the election is Nov. 5.

— Avian influenza confirmed in three California dairy herds; no human cases detected. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been confirmed in cows at three dairy farms in California’s Central Valley, leading to quarantines. The infection was detected after the herds showed symptoms consistent with HPAI. While no human cases have been linked to this outbreak, public health authorities are monitoring farm workers closely. Despite the detection, there is no threat to the milk or food supply, as milk from sick cows is not allowed into the supply chain, and pasteurization effectively neutralizes the virus. The affected farms are under strict biosecurity measures, and additional testing is ongoing to prevent further spread. Link for details.

— Anger at Netanyahu mounts as Israel recovers bodies of six hostages, including Hersh Goldberg-Polin. Israel’s military recovered the bodies of six hostages reportedly killed by Hamas in Gaza, including Hersh Goldberg-Polin, a widely recognized Israeli/American captive. An Israel Defense Forces spokesperson said in a video briefing that the hostages were “brutally murdered” by Hamas as IDF forces neared a rescue in Rafah — close to the location where another hostage had been recovered alive days ago.

Protests have erupted across Israel, with public anger directed at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the handling of the hostage crisis.

— Ukraine strikes major Moscow refinery in escalating drone campaign on Russian infrastructure. Ukraine launched one of its largest aerial assaults since the start of Russia’s invasion, targeting a major oil refinery in Moscow and other critical infrastructure across Russia. The attacks, which highlight the vulnerability of Russia’s strategic assets, resulted in large explosions at the Gazprom-owned refinery and a power station in the Tverk region. Russia’s defense ministry reported intercepting over 150 drones in 15 regions. As Ukraine intensifies its drone campaign, the strikes are aimed at disrupting fuel supplies for Russia’s military and damaging its key export industry.

— Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is pleased about his 2024 corn crop. Grassley on X wrote: “Corn on the right is 2023 left is this year. This year’s is much larger. The difference btwn 10 inches rain v 28 this year Each ear is from same field.”

(Sen. Chuck Grassley )