Jobs Report: U.S. Added More Jobs Than Expected; Equities Rally

USDA expected to announce more details re: Emergency Relief Program

A strong job market is deepening the challenges the Federal Reserve faces as it raises interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s to try to bring inflation down from near a 40-hear high. Steady hiring, solid pay growth and a low unemployment rate have been good for workers. But they have also contributed to rising prices. This dispatch details the latest jobs report number, and perspective from several analysts.

China is working on plans to scrap a system that penalizes airlines for bringing virus cases into the country, according to reports and a sign authorities are looking for ways to ease the impact of the Covid Zero policy. Shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong jumped on Friday, after U.S. officials wrapped up a crucial audit inspection in the city and a transcript circulated on social media suggesting China was considering reversing its strict coronavirus policies. Link for details via the WSJ.

The U.S. and its allies set parameters for a price cap on Russian oil. The U.S. and its allies have reached agreement on which sales of Russian oil will be subject to a price cap, racing to flesh out the details of the major new sanctions program before it begins on Dec. 5.

Foreign ministers of the Group of 7 countries plan to decide on fresh economic support to rebuild Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Ukraine said Thursday that its Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was relying on diesel generators after Russian shelling damaged transmission lines. Other Russian attacks left nearly half a million homes in Kyiv without electricity Friday morning.

News is coming from USDA within the next week to 10 days on the Emergency Relief Program. Details in Policy section.

Starbucks stock rose 2.4% premarket after it said its sales hit a record in the recent quarter, while a planned multimillion-dollar investment in new cafe equipment and higher wages for employees cut into store-level profit. Details in Food Industry section.

The U.S. and South Korea responded defiantly after North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile and two short-range ballistic missiles on Thursday, saying they would extend their military exercises this week and return next year to large-scale field exercises. “Any nuclear attack against the United States or its Allies and partners, including the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, is unacceptable and will result in the end of the Kim regime, said U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Total spending on federal and state races in 2021 and 2022 could exceed $16.7 billion, according to estimates by Open Secrets. Details below.

Predictions for net GOP gains in the House keep being increased. Latest comes from Inside Elections which puts the possibilities at 13-30 seats. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter released its final Senate overview and is changing the range of most likely outcomes to D+0 to R+3. Earlier this week, the group shifted 10 House race ratings. Its overall outlook of a GOP gain between 12 and 25 seats. Details in Politics & Elections section.

Election Day 2022 is 4 days away. Election Day 2024 is 732 days away.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. Dow opened up just over 300 points higher, and are now around 215 points higher. Stocks across Asia rose amid continued reports that China might relax its stringent Covid-19 rules in early 2023. Rumors emerged that a former head of China’s disease prevention commission said that the border with Hong Kong could open early next year, with further reopening to follow. Hong Kong-listed stocks were up by around 6% on Friday, with those in Shanghai rising by over 2%. In Asia, Japan -1.7%. Hong Kong +5.4%. China +2.4%. India +0.2%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.9%. Paris +1.6%. Frankfurt +1.3%.

U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices finished lower Thursday with only Dow able to poke into positive territory during the trading. The Dow ended down 146.51 points, 0.46%, at 32,001.25. The Nasdaq fell 181.86 points, 1.73%, at 10,342.94. The S&P 500 was down 39.80 points, 1.06%, at 3,719.89.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: December corn fell 8 1/4 cents to $6.79 1/4, the contract’s lowest close since Oct. 19.
• Soy complex: January soybeans fell 17 cents to $14.37. December soymeal fell $10.20 to $414.30. December soyoil fell 32 points to 75.29 cents.
• Wheat: December SRW wheat fell 5 1/2 cents to $8.40 1/2, the lowest close since Oct. 28. December HRW wheat gained 1 cent to $9.41 1/4. December spring wheat fell 6 1/4 cents to $9.43.
• Cotton: December cotton rose the expanded 400-point limit to 83.00 cents, the highest close since Oct. 17.
• Cattle: December live cattle futures rose 55 cents to $151.95. January feeder cattle dropped 57.5 cents to $179.425. December live cattle futures rose for the first time in six sessions as cash trading picked up, with the Monday-Wednesday average gaining $151.79, a $1.30 rise from the week-prior figure.
• Hogs: December hogs rose 7.5 cents to $83.375, after falling earlier to the lowest intraday level since Oct. 17. Nearby lean hogs erased early declines and posted modest corrective gains.
  

Ag markets today: Corn, soybean and wheat futures firmed overnight amid corrective buying as outside markets provided support. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans were mostly 15 to 16 cents higher and wheat futures were 10 to 13 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were more than $3 higher and the U.S. dollar index was around 550 points lower.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 205,000 in October and the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 3.5%. (8:30 a.m. ET) UPDATE: See item below.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaks on the economy and monetary policy at 10 a.m. ET.
• Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1 p.m. ET.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report, 3:30 p.m. ET.

The U.S. economy added a stronger-than-expected 261,000 jobs in October of 2022, above market forecasts of 205,000. While the weakest reading since December of 2020, figures continued to point to a strong albeit slowing labor market, as workers shortages persist. Figures for September were revised higher by 52,000 to 315,000. In October, notable job gains occurred in health care (53,000), namely ambulatory health care services (31,000), nursing and residential care facilities (11,000), and hospitals (11,000); professional and technical services (43,000). Also, the manufacturing sector unexpectedly added 32,000 jobs, with some investors expecting a fall; and the leisure/hospitality sector added 35,000 jobs. Monthly job growth has averaged 407,000 thus far in 2022, compared with 562,000 per month in 2021. (Chart from New York Times.)

The U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.7% in October 2022, up from September’s 29-month low of 3.5% and slightly above market expectations of 3.6%. The jobless rate has been in a narrow range of 3.5% to 3.7%since March, suggesting that the labor market is already very tight, which, in turn, is likely to contribute significantly to inflationary pressure in the world’s largest economy for some time to come. The number of unemployed persons rose by 306,000 to 6.06 million in October, while the number of employed decreased by 328,000 to 158.6 million. T

The labor force participation rate edged down to 62.2% from 62.3%.

U.S. wages rose more than expected. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. rose by 12 cents, or 0.4%, to $32.58 in October of 2022, after a 0.3% rise in September and above market forecasts of 0.3%. In October, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 9 cents, or 0.3%, to $27.86. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.7%, following a 5% rise in the prior month and matching market estimates.

What analysts are saying about the latest U.S. jobs report:

• While employers have continued to add jobs at a solid clip, the pace of growth has started to slow.
• “We’re seeing a labor market that’s showing signs of cooling down, but still very strong and elevated far above its levels before the pandemic,” said Nick Bunker, director of North American economic research for the career site Indeed.
• “A gradually slowing job market means that a soft landing is still possible,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at the job search website Glassdoor. “As long as the unemployment rate remains low, a soft landing is not off the table.”
• Employers are still adding jobs at a much faster pace than before the pandemic. In 2019, job gains averaged 164,000 a month.
• “The combination of slower manufacturing, the housing market running into a brick wall and consumers being more cautious is contributing to a slowdown in labor demand,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, a large commercial bank in Texas.
• Wage gains have started to slow but remain well above where they were before the pandemic.
• “The labor market’s going from 100 miles per hour to 85,” said Rob Dent, senior U.S. economist at Nomura. “The Fed’s looking for 40, and we’re still not very close to that.”
• The high number of openings is a sign that employers have a lot of positions to fill but are still struggling to find available workers, putting pressure on wages.
• The report showed a steady decline in the number of workers hired and the number of workers who had voluntarily quit their jobs. That could be a sign that employers and employees are starting to worry about the future.
• “I envision we’ll see people taking on more part-time work,” said Amy Glaser, senior vice president for business operations at the global staffing firm Adecco, of the coming months. “Workers we surveyed felt wage increases weren’t enough to offset inflation.”
• “We’re seeing the signs of some of the Fed’s rate hikes creeping in,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist of the payroll processing firm ADP. “I think these would be early signs that that policy is having an impact.”
  

The producer price inflation in the Eurozone eased to 41.9% year-on-year in September 2022, down from an all-time high of 43.4% in August and slightly below market expectations of 42.0%. Still, the reading added to concerns over mounting inflationary pressure across Europe amid a weakening economic outlook and a deepening energy crisis, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to continue its monetary policy tightening.

Energy costs were up 108.2% from a year earlier (vs 117.1% in August) and non-durable consumer goods prices increased 15.2% (vs 14.5% in August). Meanwhile, inflation slowed for both intermediate (19.0% vs 20.0%) and capital goods (7.6% vs 7.8%), and was unchanged for durable consumer goods (at 9.8%). Without energy, producer prices rose 14.5% year-on-year in September, decelerating from 14.6% the month before.

Yellen heads for India for economic talks. Climate, trade and investment will dominate U.S./India economic talks when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visits her Indian counterpart, Nirmala Sitharaman, in New Delhi next week.

U.S. mortgage rates pull back after three straight weeks of gains. U.S. mortgage dropped after a three-week run of gains that sent borrowing costs to a two-decade high. The average for a 30-year, fixed loan fell to 6.95% after surging past 7% last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday in a statement.

Perspective: The price of an affordable U.S. home is currently around $450,000, down from $700,000 a year ago thanks to mortgage rates that have shot up to the highest level in two decades, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.

Glencore PLC, the commodities giant, said it would pay a penalty and costs of 281 million pounds, equivalent to about $320 million, after pleading guilty to British charges of bribing officials in West Africa for preferential access to crude oil. The penalty, imposed on a wholly owned U.K. subsidiary of the company by a British judge Thursday, is part of a wide-ranging bribery investigation by authorities in Britain, the U.S. and elsewhere that has hung over the global mining and trading business for years. Glencore in May said it would pay more than $1 billion to U.S. authorities, and admitted wrongdoing, to resolve allegations of bribery and market manipulation. At that time, Glencore also said it would plead guilty to U.K. bribery charges, which it did in June.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was lower, with the euro and British pound firmer against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was higher, around 4.16%. Crude futures were registering strong gains on a weaker U.S. dollar and supply concerns, with U.S. crude around $92.50 per barrel and Brent around $98.70 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were firmer, with gold around $1,654 per troy ounce and silver around $20 per troy ounce.

• Another big injection of natural gas into domestic storage facilities has brought U.S. inventories of the heating and power-generation fuel nearly in line with normal levels.

• Threat of a nationwide strike by U.S. freight railroad workers still looms. The votes of the two largest rail workers’ unions will be known by mid-Nov. Two unions have rejected a proposed deal, while six have approved it. Others are still deciding. The earliest a rail strike could happen is late November. All 12 unions must approve the contracts with the railroads to prevent a strike. There is no immediate threat of a walkout because the unions agreed to return to talks through at least late November to avoid an economically crippling strike. If the impasse persists, Congress may intervene and block a strike.

Some of America’s top agricultural transporters are calling on congressional leaders to take swift action to avert a rail strike. A strike or lockout “would be catastrophic for the agricultural and broader US economies. Congress must act to prevent this from occurring if the parties cannot reach agreement,” they said in a letter to congressional leaders.

• The Paris-based OECD has convened a meeting of more than 45 agricultural ministers and government representatives this week to address a “triple challenge” for farming — the need to secure food supplies, address environmental sustainability and to protect livelihoods in the supply chain.

• FAO lowers global grain production forecast. FAO lowered its 2022-23 global cereal grain production forecast by 4.9 MMT from last month to 2.764 billion MT. Most of the reduction was to wheat production, which FAO cut 3.4 MMT to 783.8 MMT, though that would still be up 4.5 MMT (0.6%) and record high. FAO forecasts global grain production will fall 50.8 MMT (1.8%) from year-ago.

• Ag trade: Iraq purchased 150,000 MT of hard milling wheat expected to be sourced from Canada, Lithuania and Australia.

• NWS weather: Severe thunderstorms likely Today across parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley... ...Atmospheric river to bring widespread rain and high elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest through early Saturday... ...Moderate to Heavy mountain snow Today and Saturday across the northern and central Rockies... ...Above average temperatures across the eastern U.S. through the weekend.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Corrective rebound overnight
• China to make substantial changes to Covid policy soon (details in China section)
• Brazilian meat processors expect protest disruptions to ease by Monday.
• December cattle trading no cash premium
• Cash hog index faces heavier pressure

— Summary: Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said 4.5 million of his countrymen were without power, as Russia continued to bomb Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Zelenskyy accused the Kremlin of “energy terrorism.” Meanwhile, reports emerged that Russian forces were preparing to retreat from Kherson city to the east bank of the Dnieper river. Ukrainian officials warned that could be a trap.

• EU mulls use of Russian central bank assets to rebuild Ukraine. The European Union is studying the feasibility of using billions of euros worth of Russian central bank assets already frozen by member states to help with Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts, according to people familiar with the matter.

• The U.S. and its allies have reached agreement on which sales of Russian oil will be subject to a price cap, racing to flesh out the details of the major new sanctions program before it begins on Dec. 5. The U.S. and its allies hope to restrict the availability of transport and insurance services to shippers that agree to observe the price ceiling (around 95% of the world’s oil tanker fleet is covered by the International Group of P&I Clubs in London and companies based in continental Europe). Another proposal is to limit the usage of U.S. financial services that could benefit from the scheme, but many are worried about its effectiveness, with some big Russian buyers like China and India already paying for products in currencies other than the dollar. So far, the parties involved intend to set a price cap on Russian crude at a fixed level, rather than a floating one that moves with benchmarks like Brent and WTI. While it’s not yet clear at what level the cap will be set, U.S. officials have signaled that any price should be above $60 a barrel, or high enough to cover production costs and encourage more output. The cap will also be reviewed regularly and could be changed by the coalition, which is made up of G7 nations and Australia.

— Congress mulls ERP extension for 2022 crop/livestock disasters. The Emergency Relief Program (ERP) covering losses from 2020 and 2021 has spent $7.1 billion to date through Phase 1.

USDA is expected to announce Phase 2 details within a week to cover the gaps left from Phase 1. Producers with shallow losses that did not trigger an indemnity will have the opportunity to apply as well as producers who did not have crop insurance. With Phase 2 still ahead, USDA does not expect a top up of Phase 1 payments.

When Congress returns for its lame-duck session in December, extending ERP for eligible 2022 disasters will be a priority for many given the challenges of the past year.

— Biden: 16 million near student-debt relief as GOP fights aid. Some 16 million applications for student debt relief will be approved by this week, provided the White House plan survives court challenges, President Joe Biden said Thursday. Almost 26 million people have applied for up to $20,000 in debt forgiveness since the White House launched the student loan forgiveness application on Oct. 17, Biden said in a series of tweets.

As for what happens next, an appeals court will decide whether to grant a preliminary injunction requested by the states. If granted, the student loan forgiveness program could be kept on hold while the court hears from both parties. If it’s not granted, debt cancellation may begin while the appeal plays out. The ruling could come at any time.

— Covid changes coming for China? An article in the South China Morning Post stated “big and substantive” changes looming for Covid policies. Meanwhile, substantial changes to China’s “dynamic-zero” Covid policy are set to take place soon, a former Chinese disease control official told a conference hosted by investment bank Citi on Friday, Reuters reported. Zeng Guang, a former chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention who has remained outspoken on China’s Covid fight, said the conditions for China opening were “accumulating,” citing new vaccines and progress the country had made in antiviral drug research. He said many new policies would be introduced in the next five to six months, without detailing what information he was basing this on.

— Senior officials and aides have been wrangling over whether President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet during the Group of 20 summit of major economies in Indonesia in mid-November, in what would be their first face-to-face since Biden’s election. Chinese officials have only recently re-engaged after ill feelings over the leaders’ last exchange, about House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit to Taiwan. Officials on both sides say they want to prevent strained relations from deteriorating further.

— The U.S. and Taiwan will hold in-person trade talks in New York next week as they deepen ties despite opposition from China. The trade initiative aims to reach agreements in areas including regulatory practices and anti-corruption standards. It was announced weeks after President Joe Biden launched the Indo/Pacific Economic Framework in May — a deal designed to counter China’s influence in the region which did not feature Taipei.

Taiwan fate. Meanwhile, a senior Chinese diplomat in Washington said Beijing has no timetable for unification with Taiwan.

— USTR: Energy, corn trade discussed in Tai talks with Mexican counterpart. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) said that USTR Katherine Tai discussed energy and corn trade issues with her Mexican counterpart Secretary of Economy Raquel Buenrostro. Tai said it was important to make “expeditious progress” on the U.S. request for consultations under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on “issues in Mexico’s energy sector” and the “importance of avoiding a disruption in U.S. corn exports and returning to a science- and risk-based regulatory approval process for all agricultural biotechnology products in Mexico.”

Buenrostro said the two would continue their dialogue on the energy issues. “We will always privilege negotiation before anything else,” she said, but reports did not provide any comments on the corn trade issues relative to the decree by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador aims to gradually eliminate genetically modified corn and glyphosate herbicide by 2024.

U.S. agricultural interests have been pressing the Biden administration to act on the corn trade issue, warning of significant negative economic impacts to both countries if the ban comes into force as scheduled in 2024. There have been conflicting signals on whether the decree covers GMO corn only for food use as some Mexican officials have suggested or corn used for feed would also barred as other officials have signaled.

Bottom line: Just talks… “not much meat on the bone” from the virtual discussion, said one observer. But at least they are talking.

— DOE announces results for final SPR sale under March announcement. The Department of Energy (DOE) said contracts were awarded for the Oct. 19 sale of 15 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after 12 companies submitted 110 bids for crude from three out of the four SPR sites — West Hackberry, Big Hill, and Bryan Mound.

DOE said this is the final sale under the March announcement by President Joe Biden the U.S. would release up to 180 million barrels of SPR crude in a bid to bring down gasoline prices. DOE noted that “a recent analysis from the Department of the Treasury estimates that SPR releases this year, along with coordinated releases from international partners, have reduced gasoline prices by up to about 40 cents per gallon compared to what they would have been absent these drawdowns.” The oil will be released between December 1-31.

— Starbucks in its quarterly earnings report Thursday said store traffic in the U.S. had almost rebounded fully to levels seen in 2019, before the Covid pandemic. Cold drinks continue to be a major driver of sales — they accounted for three-quarters of beverage sales at company-owned locations in the United States, the company said. The company’s Pumpkin Spice Latte enjoyed a 70% increase in sales compared with the prior-year period.

— Judge temporarily blocks Albertsons from paying out $4 billion dividend to investors. A judge in Washington state temporarily blocked Albertsons from paying out a $4 billion special dividend to investors after a suit was filed by Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson to block the payout. Ferguson said the special dividend was illegal as it would undermine the ability of Albertsons to compete as regulators review the pending merger with Kroger.

Timeline. King County Superior Court Commissioner Henry Judson put the temporary injunction in place through at least Nov. 10 when the court is scheduled to further consider the matter.

Albertsons countered that they would seek to end the injunction, arguing that paying out the dividend would not “impair its ability to compete” while the merger is being reviewed by federal authorities.

— Pace of decline slows in FAO global food price index. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) global food price index ticked down 0.1 point in October — the seventh straight monthly decline —though it was 2.7 points (5.5%) above year-ago. Declines in vegoils, meat, dairy and sugar were nearly offset by a rise in cereal grain prices. Compared to year-ago, prices were up 5.7% for meat, 15.3% for dairy and 11.1% for cereal grains, while vegoils dropped 18.8% and sugar declined 8.5%.

— Australia offers a preview of how the global dairy industry could crack under the pressure of climate change, some observers note. The country was once a heavyweight in the business, but milk production has slipped and its share of global dairy trade has dropped from 16% in the 1990s to around 6% in 2018. Difficult business conditions added to a mass exodus from the sector: The number of dairy farms Down Under shrunk by almost three quarters from 1980 to 2020. Link for more.

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 631,869,066 with 6,597,994 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 97,691,140 with 1,072,223 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 636,871,557 doses administered, 266,031,472 have received at least one vaccine, or 80.74% of the U.S. population.

— Moderna Covid vaccine sales forecasts fall short for 2022, 2023. Moderna cut its 2022 Covid-19 vaccine sales forecast, citing regulatory and production delays, and issued a 2023 outlook for the shots well below Wall Street estimates.

— Health officials are reinforcing their recommendations for people to get flu vaccines as this year’s strain picks up its pace across the U.S. There have been at least 880,000 cases of influenza, nearly 7,000 hospitalizations and 360 deaths from the flu so far this fall — including one pediatric death — according to data from the CDC. The numbers also show there haven’t been this many cases of influenza so early in the season since 2009.

— Inside Elections, Nathan Gonzales’ group, is predicting a GOP gain of between 13 and 30 House seats. The forecast is similar to the group’s projections before the fallout from Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision on abortion. Republicans need a net gain of five for a majority. “If individual race ratings are true to form and the parties split the tossups, Republicans would land on the lower end of the projected range,” Inside Elections said. “But if undecided voters break disproportionately toward Republicans, and the GOP wins most of the closest races, then they could reach or exceed the upper end of that projection.”

As for the Senate, Inside Elections said: “Nominees in the half-dozen most competitive Senate races are within a handful of points of each other, creating a broad range of potential outcomes. The most likely result should fall between a Republican gain of two seats and a Democratic gain of a single seat. Ultimately, it could take a Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia to determine control of the Senate. Overall, the final midterm outcome will likely be delayed by the normal counting of ballots and legal challenges.”

— The Cook Political Report’s guide to election night. The group’s Amy Walter writes: “Although most news broadcasts begin their election night coverage in the early evening of Nov. 8, many of the most competitive contests for the House and Senate are in states west of the Mississippi. On the House side, 25% of the Toss Up contests are in western states. It’s hard to believe we’ll know the balance of power in the Senate without having results from Nevada and Arizona. And, for the gubernatorial contests, all but one of the most competitive races are in western/northwestern states.”

— Cook Political Report updated its latest election forecasts, which are the last prior to Nov. 8. “We are changing our range of most likely outcomes to D+0 to R+3. Earlier this week, we shifted 10 House race ratings. Our overall outlook is a GOP gain between 12 and 25 seats.”

— Governor races. The election map features a total of 16 seats Democrats must defend — 13 held by incumbents and three open seats. Meanwhile, Republicans are defending 16 incumbents and four open seats. In 2018, Democrats gained seven states and Republicans lost six.

— Total cost of 2022 state and federal elections projected to exceed $16.7 billion, according to a new OpenSecrets analysis. Federal candidates and political committees are expected to spend $8.9 billion, while state candidates, party committees and ballot measure committees are on track to raise $7.8 billion. Election-related spending at the federal level has already blown past the inflation-adjusted 2018 midterm record of $7.1 billion. State-level candidate, party committee and ballot measure committee expenditures could surpass the estimated 2018 midterm spending record of $6.6 billion, adjusted for inflation. “No other midterm election has seen as much money at the state and federal levels as the 2022 elections,” said Sheila Krumholz, OpenSecrets’ executive director. “We’re seeing record-breaking totals spent on elections up and down the ballot.” Link for details.

— Yair Lapid, Israel’s prime minister, conceded defeat in parliamentary elections to Binyamin Netanyahu, clearing the way for Netanyahu to reclaim his old job. Netanyahu’s religious and right-wing coalition appears to have won 64 of 120 seats in parliament. Lapid’s bloc took 51; an unaffiliated Arab party claimed the rest. To form a government, Netanyahu will need the support of Itamar Ben-Gvir’s far-right religious party, which until recently was a political pariah.

— Legislation introduced to double funding for USDA foreign market development programs. Reps. Jim Costa (D-CA), Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), Tracey Mann (R-Kan.), Cindy Axne (D-Iowa), Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), and Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) introduced bipartisan legislation, HR.9244, the Supporting Market Access to Reinvigorate Trade (SMART) Act of 2022. It would double funding to at least $400 million per fiscal year for USDA’s Market Access Program and Foreign Market Development Program.

Companion legislation, the Cultivating Revitalization by Expanding American Agricultural Trade and Exports (CREAATE) Act, was introduced on Sept. 22 by Sens. Angus King (I-Maine), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Tina Smith (D-Min.), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), and Susan Collins (R-Maine).

The Coalition to Promote U.S. Agricultural Exports applauded the initiative, which they said strengthens U.S. farmers’ competitive edge in foreign markets.

— Manchin, citing ‘crippling debt,’ calls for entitlements fix. Sometimes centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Thursday that Congress needs to deal with the nation’s “crippling debt” by making changes to shore up Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other programs he said are “going bankrupt.” Manchin said at a Fortune CEO conference he’d like to see bipartisan legislation over the next two years to deal with entitlement programs, which he said are facing “tremendous problems.”’

— Senate Budget Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) wants Democrats to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling in a lame-duck session if Republicans win control of either chamber to skirt their plan to use it as leverage to force entitlement cuts next year. Hurdles for this approach are evident, including the need to get Sen. Manchin on board.

— Cotton AWP falls again. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton declined to 65.46 cents per pound, effective today (Nov. 4), down from 68.95 cents per pound the prior week and the lowest AWP since it was at 64.92 cents per pound the week of April 9, 2021. It is the second straight week under 70 cents per pound.

— Paul Pelosi, the husband of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), has been released from the hospital, less than one week after police said a man broke into the couple’s San Francisco home and struck him over the head with a hammer.

— The U.S. and South Korea warned North Korea that using a nuclear weapon against allied nations would “result in the end of the Kim regime,” sharpening their rhetoric in a bid to deter Pyongyang from further military escalation after a series of missile launches.

— South Sudan’s food insecurity. The United Nations has warned that two-thirds of people in South Sudan could be in a state of acute food insecurity once the country enters its next lean season. “Humanitarian assistance is needed to save lives and prevent the total collapse of livelihoods in the country,” said Josephine Lagu, South Sudan’s agriculture minister.

— Protests broke out across Pakistan after Imran Khan, the former prime minister, was shot in the leg while leading a rally. Khan is out of danger. He has been calling for snap elections following his ousting from power in April. The gunman said he acted alone, but leaders from Khan’s party suspect someone linked to Shehbaz Sharif’s government may have been behind the attempted assassination.

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