India to Surpass China as Driver of Global Food Demand Over Next Decade

News/markets/policy updates, July 9, 2024

(Farm Journal )

MARKET FOCUS

· Fed Chair Powell testifies this morning

· Consumer credit in May rose by $11.4 billion, significant increase from April

· On Sunday, over 3 mil. people passed through U.S. airport security checkpoints

· Annualized payments to service U.S. gov’t debt surpasses $1.1 trillion

· China launches first platinum and palladium futures contracts country

· Canada averts potential labor disruption at Pacific Coast ports

· India to surpass China as leading driver of global food demand over next decade

· Ag markets today

· India may relax restrictions on exports of some rice varieties

· France forecasts 15% drop in wheat production

· Ag trade update

· Beryl weakens to tropical depression but still poses significant threat

· Recovery from Hurricane Beryl is underway in the energy sector

· NWS weather outlook

· Pro Farmer First Thing Today items

REGULATORY AGENDA

· Biden’s regulatory roadmap could be impacted by potential Trump administration

· Federal regulators delay trucking sector rulemakings

CONGRESS

· Senate Appropriators ready emergency adds to spending bills

· House Freedom Caucus votes to remove Rep. Warren Davidson

· SALT opponents strategizing to roll back the deduction cap

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

· Israeli and U.S. officials optimistic about potential ceasefire-hostage deal

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

· Russia launched rare daylight strikes on Ukraine Monday

PERSONNEL

· Danielle Fumagalli named acting assistant USTR for Japan, Korea & Asia-Pacific

CHINA

· State Council investigating transport of cooking oil without proper cleaning

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

· Solar firm gets millions in U.S. tax credits despite Chinese labor questions

· Iowa regulators approve meetings for Summit Carbon Solutions’ pipeline expansion

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

· Study: H5N1 not easily spread via air

HEALTH UPDATE

· Biden’s doctor speaks out to address speculation about his health

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

· Biden crisis update

· House and Senate Dems to confer today re: Biden

· ABC News changes official transcript of Biden interview

· RNC approves 2024 platform focused on tax cuts, border control, and energy

· Trump’s final decision on 2024 running mate near

· Democratic Party strategies if Biden steps aside

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

· Treasury Dept. expands security reviews of foreign purchases of real estate

· Price of Forever stamp will rise to 73 cents Sunday, up from current 68 cents

— Equities today: Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. Dow opened slightly lower. The S&P 500 rose to a new record. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee this morning. In Asia, Japan +2%. Hong Kong flat. China +1.3%. India +0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -0.5%.

U.S. equities yesterday: Equities finished Monday mixed, with the Dow down 31.08 points, 0.08%, at 39,344.79. The Nasdaq gained 50.98 points, 0.28%, at 18,403.74. The S&P 500 rose 5.66 points, 0.10%, at 5,572.85.

— Ag markets today: Corn, soybean and wheat futures traded in relatively tight ranges overnight, with wheat mildly favoring the upside this morning while corn and soybeans are modestly weaker. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading fractionally lower, soybeans were mostly a nickel lower and wheat futures were fractionally to a penny higher in most contracts. The U.S. dollar index was nearly 100 points higher, and front-month crude oil futures were around 30 cents lower this morning.

Cattle futures convey traders’ apprehension. Cattle futures reversed Monday’s early gains and finished sharply lower despite the cash market scoring a record high for a fourth consecutive week and surging wholesale beef prices. With beef entering a historically weak demand period, Monday’s price action despite already big discounts to the cash market signals traders expect cash fundamentals to top soon and decline seasonally through summer.

Cash hog index continues to slip, wholesale pork prices stabilize. The CME lean hog index is down 44 cents to $88.76 as of July 5, marking a new low on the decline from the seasonal high and the lowest level since April 9. The pork cutout firmed $1.08 on Monday, the second consecutive daily gain following last week’s drop to the lowest level since late March.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

· Corn: December corn plunged 16 1/4 cents to $4.07 3/4, marking the lowest close since March 30, 2021.

· Soy complex: November soybean futures plunged 30 1/4 cents to $10.99 1/2 and settled nearer session lows. August meal futures sunk $7.20 to $350.00 and closed on session lows. August bean oil closed 46 points lower at 49.09 cents.

· Wheat: December SRW wheat fell 19 cents to $5.94 1/2 and nearer the session low. December HRW wheat lost 20 1/4 cents to $5.95 3/4, nearer the session low and hit a more-than-three-month low. December spring wheat closed 14 3/4 cents lower at $6.36 1/4.

· Cotton: December cotton rose 7 points to 71.05 cents, closing near the session low.

· Cattle: August live cattle fell $2.075 to $184.35. August feeder cattle closed down $2.30 at $259.175. Both markets closed nearer their session lows.

· Hogs: August lean hog futures firmed 35 cents to $89.525, while deferred contracts posted losses.

— Quotes of note:

· Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reports on the economy and monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. ET. “Expect him to say progress on inflation has been and is being made, but the Fed remains patient in terms of cutting rates to ensure it doesn’t reignite,” Bill Hornbarger, chief investment officer at Benjamin F. Edwards, said of Powell’s Tuesday testimony.

— In May, consumer credit rose by $11.4 billion, a significant increase from April’s $6.5 billion rise, according to Federal Reserve data. Revolving credit, which includes credit and bank cards, increased by $7 billion after a decrease in April, while nonrevolving credit, such as student and auto loans, rose by $4.3 billion. This marks the strongest increase in three months. The report also noted that credit card interest rates stood at 22.76% in May, just below a 1994 record, and the interest rate for a 60-month new vehicle loan from a bank was 8.2%, near a record high. These high interest rates could limit consumer activity as people look to reduce their monthly expenses.

— On Sunday, over three million people passed through U.S. airport security checkpoints for the first time ever, setting a new daily record during a surge in summer travel. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reported screening 3,013,413 people, surpassing the previous record of 2.99 million set on June 23. This milestone occurred at the end of the July 4th holiday weekend.

Several factors contributed to this surge, including cheaper flights, a stronger dollar, and increased travel interest among younger people. Sunday’s traveler count was up 14% from the same day last year.

From June 27 to July 7, the summer travel boom saw 29.7 million travelers pass through airport checkpoints, marking a 7.1% increase from the previous year and exceeding TSA’s predictions.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was higher, with the euro and British pound weaker against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was higher, trading around 4.30%, with a mixed tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were down, with U.S. crude trading at around $81.90 per barrel and Brent trading at around $85.35 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were up, with gold around $2,368 per troy ounce and silver around $31.34 per troy ounce.

— The estimated annualized payments to service the U.S. gov’t debt surpassed $1.1 trillion and are still rising.

(Bloomberg)

— China’s Guangzhou Futures Exchange will launch the first platinum and palladium futures contracts in the country, to boost China’s involvement in platinum group metals, including improving domestic hedging.

— Canada averted a potential labor disruption at its Pacific Coast ports after the labor-relations board deemed a strike notice from the union representing ship and dock foremen illegal. This would have been the second consecutive summer of labor issues at these crucial west coast gateways, which handle about 25% of Canada’s annual trade, amounting to roughly C$800 million (about $586 million) daily.

The threat of a strike had raised business concerns about supply chains, especially with the possibility of simultaneous strikes at the country’s two biggest railroads. Local 514 of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union had issued a 72-hour strike notice on Friday, prompting the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association to prepare for a lockout. However, the Industrial Relations Board ruled the union’s strike notice violated parts of the labor code, stating that the union failed to bargain in good faith. Following this, the union and the employers rescinded their strike and lockout notices, and federal mediators are now working to reach an agreement.

The British Columbia maritime employers group expressed disappointment that these measures were necessary but was pleased with the outcome. The union has not yet commented on the ruling or its next steps.

Perspective: Last year, a two-week strike involving over 7,000 workers at British Columbia ports disrupted shipping and affected shipments worth C$10 billion, reducing Canada’s economic output by C$1 billion. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce highlighted the significant impact of labor disputes, urging swift government action to prevent further disruptions.

— India, the world’s top rice shipper, may relax restrictions on exports of some rice varieties to avoid a glut in the country before the new crop arrives in the market in October. Link for details via Bloomberg.

— France forecasts 15% drop in wheat production. French soft wheat production is expected to decline 15.4% to 29.7 MMT, the lowest level since 2020, according to the first estimate from the country’s ag ministry. That would be 14.2% below the five-year average. The wheat crop forecast was based on an expected yield of 6.99 tons per hectare (down from 7.38 tons per hectare last year) and harvested area of 4.24 million hectares, (down from 4.75 million hectares in 2023).

— India is set to surpass China as the leading driver of global food demand over the next decade, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The FAO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) project that agricultural product consumption, including animal feed and fuel, will grow by an average of 1.1% annually in calorie terms through 2033. Nearly 94% of this additional consumption is expected in middle and low-income countries, such as India, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.

While China accounted for 28% of the demand increase in the past decade, this is forecast to drop to 11% in the next decade. Conversely, India’s share is predicted to rise from 13% to 20%, and sub-Saharan Africa’s from 10% to 18%. For staple foods like wheat, China is expected to consume 147 million tonnes in 2033, a modest 2.6% increase from 2021-2023 averages. In contrast, India’s wheat consumption is expected to jump 27.7% to 137 million tonnes, nearly matching China. Rice consumption in China is projected to remain steady, while Indian demand is set to rise significantly.

These forecasts are driven by population decline and stagnating incomes in China, contrasted with population growth and rising living standards in India. Although China and India have similar populations, China’s annual meat consumption is about 12 times higher. India’s predominantly vegetarian population suggests a small increase in meat consumption, but any shift due to economic growth could significantly impact global supply and demand, including for animal feed.

Food consumption is expected to rise faster in emerging and developing countries than in developed ones. Africa’s population, projected to grow from 1.49 billion to 1.8 billion by 2033, will see wheat, corn, and rice consumption surge by 22% to 42%.

Whether global food supply can meet this demand remains uncertain due to geopolitical tensions, plant and animal diseases, and the impacts of climate change. The European Environment Agency warns that climate change could render around 10% of arable land unusable by mid-century. Reducing food loss is emphasized as a key strategy to stabilize global food supply. Halving supply chain losses and waste by 2030 could increase food intake by 10% in low-income countries and 6% in lower-middle-income countries, reducing the number of undernourished people worldwide by a quarter.

— Ag trade update: South Korea tendered to buy 85,000 MT of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. or Canada. Japan is seeking 107,330 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender.

— Beryl has weakened to a tropical depression but still poses a significant threat of catastrophic flooding and tornadoes in the U.S. as it moves inland. Millions of Texans affected by the deadly storm are expected to be without power for days or weeks, facing dangerous conditions without air conditioning as sweltering heat grips the state. The storm’s center is forecast to reach Arkansas early today, continue through southern Missouri and Illinois, and then move into Indiana on Wednesday, racing through Ohio and Michigan before reaching Canada by the end of the week.

— Recovery from Hurricane Beryl is underway in the energy sector, with oil and gas companies in Texas working to restart operations after heavy winds and rain hit Houston and other energy-related areas and ports. Some ports reopened on Monday, with more expected today, and energy operations are resuming after being shut down ahead of the storm. Houston received up to 11 inches of rain, but flooding receded quickly. Phillips 66 reported its Lake Charles, Louisiana, and Sweeny, Texas, refineries are operational, while Citgo Petroleum reduced production at its Corpus Christi plant. The Port of Corpus Christi reopened Monday afternoon, but the Port of Houston remains closed for a preliminary assessment. Oil prices have eased as the storm caused minimal damage to key energy infrastructure.

— NWS weather outlook: Beryl to bring heavy rain and flooding from the Lower Arkansas River Valley, northeast into the Middle Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes... ...Record high temperatures to continue into mid-week across large portions of the west coast, while record high minimum temperatures stretch from the Gulf coast, northeast along the East coast.

(NWS)

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Quiet overnight grain trade
• Beryl to change Midwest weather
• Corn, soybean and spring wheat CCI ratings improve
• Cordonnier leaves U.S. crop forecasts unchanged, adjusts So. American corn production

— Biden’s regulatory roadmap that could be impacted by a potential Trump administration. The White House released the spring Unified Agenda (link) detailing agency timelines for various regulations. The agenda is significant as Biden campaigns against Trump, who plans to repeal many rules if elected. The agenda is seen as ambitious and more of a signal to interest groups rather than a guarantee of completion.

Of note: Upcoming rules risk repeal if finalized during the Congressional Review Act’s “look-back” window.

USDA Initiatives:

• USDA plans to codify its higher blends infrastructure program to expand higher-ethanol fuel availability, with a proposed rule expected by May 2025.
• USDA’s Ag Marketing Service (AMS) is working on the greenhouse gas technical assistance program and third-party verifier program under the Growing Climate Solutions Act, with a proposed rulemaking notice in August and a final rule by October. It will facilitate farmer, rancher, and private forest landowner participation in voluntary carbon markets.
• AMS plans a final rule on amendments to the Packers and Stockyards Act (P&SA) to address issues in poultry grower payment systems and capital improvement programs, with the comment period ending on Aug. 9 and a final rule expected in November 2024. Additionally, AMS aims to finalize a rule clarifying conduct considered unfair under the P&SA, with the current proposed rule open for public comment until Aug. 27 and a final rule planned for December 2024.
• Regarding cattle markets, AMS intends to propose a rule in September to address problems in fed cattle markets related to base price determination, aiming to improve price discovery, transparency, and protect producers from unfair practices and market manipulation, with a final rule anticipated in May 2025.
• For the National Bioengineered Food Disclosure Standard, AMS will publish a rule to enhance disclosure accessibility to consumers, including removing the standalone text message option and adding a comparable digital option. A request for comment ended on June 10, 2024, and a proposed rule is planned for March 2025.
• USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) proposes new labeling requirements for meat or poultry products made using animal cell-culture technology. A notice of proposed rulemaking is expected this month, pending review by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) since March 2024.

EPA Regulations:

• Pesticide use: EPA will publish a final rule in August updating worker protection standards for pesticide use, including who is allowed within pesticide application zones.
• On biofuels policy, EPA said it would combine next year’s announcement of minimum biofuel blending through the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) with proposed changes to improve the program’s implementation. A notice of proposed rulemaking is slated for March, with a final rule envisioned for December 2025.

Forest Service Actions:

• In January, the Forest Service will propose regulations to advance carbon stewardship in national forests through vegetation management and land use, though the timeline is undetermined.
• By December 2024, the Forest Service plans to finalize a rule to allow carbon storage projects on forest system land, exempting these projects from a prohibition on the permanent use of national forests and grasslands.

Treasury Rules:

· Clean energy projects: Treasury aims to finalize rules from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to support clean energy projects.

· Proposal completion: Treasury is working on a proposal introduced in May that offers significant incentives for clean energy projects starting in 2025 and beyond.

· New proposal: For the first time, the agenda includes credits under Sections 45Y and 48E of the IRA for electric power projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including those using fossil fuels. Public comment period ends in August.

· Clean hydrogen production credits: Another proposed rule from December aims to establish production credits for clean hydrogen (IRA 45V). Hydrogen producers have urged quicker implementation of these credits.

Interior Department:

• Monarch butterfly: Decision on designating as threatened or endangered expected by December 4, delayed from September.
• Migratory Bird Treaty Act: December decision on permit system allowing limited harm to birds with mitigation steps.
• FWS refuge system: Proposal to promote biological integrity and health, with over 146,000 public comments received, due in December.
• Offshore oil regulations: New rules to stiffen regulations and limit drilling eligibility based on financial and environmental criteria.

Bond requirement: Offshore oil companies must obtain a bond before contesting penalties, rule expected this summer.
Oil spill response: Update to 22-year-old regulations.
Fitness to operate standards: Due in January 2025.s

• National Park Service: Public notice by December on eliminating fees for low-impact commercial filming and designating off-road vehicle routes at Big Cypress National Preserve (Florida) and horse/bicycle routes at Mammoth Cave National Park (Kentucky).

— Federal regulators delay trucking sector rulemakings. The following delays were announced in the U.S. Department of Transportation’s latest regulatory agenda:

• Truck speed limiter rule: The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has delayed the proposed rule to limit new truck engine speeds to May 2025, originally scheduled for mid-2023. This rule requires trucks over 26,000 pounds to have electronic speed governors, generating nearly 16,000 comments.

• Electronic Logging Device (ELD) operations: Changes to ELD operations, including applicability to pre-2000 engines, have been delayed by eight months, with the notice of proposed rulemaking now set for June 2025 instead of October 2024.

• Automatic emergency braking systems: The joint FMCSA-National Highway Traffic Safety Administration rule on performance standards and maintenance for automatic emergency braking systems on heavy trucks has been pushed to January 2025, from the initial dkate of April 2024.

• Automated driving systems: Rulemaking for automated driving systems in heavy trucks has been delayed from March 2024 to December 2024.

• Female truck driver safety: Improvements in safety regulations for female truck drivers have been postponed from June 2024 to December 2024.

• Physical qualification standards for drivers with epilepsy: New standards have been delayed from July 2024 to June 2025.

• Drug & alcohol clearinghouse procedures: Revisions to better account for controlled substance violations are expected this month, delayed from November 2023.

— Senate Appropriators ready emergency adds to spending bills. Senate Appropriations Chair Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and ranking member Susan Collins (R-Maine) have tentatively agreed to add $34.5 billion in emergency spending for fiscal year (FY) 2025.

• Defense and nondefense spending: The pact includes $21 billion for defense and $13.5 billion for nondefense programs.

• Increased funding: This agreement would result in a nearly $30 billion (over 3%) increase for the Pentagon and security-related agencies, and a roughly $21 billion (just under 3%) boost for nondefense agencies.

• Debt limit agreement: These increases exceed the 1% caps set in last year’s debt limit negotiations and the associated “side deal.”

• House vs. Senate: The House versions of the fiscal 2025 bills adhere to the 1% defense increase and ignore nondefense adjustments, effectively cutting nondefense programs by 6-7%.

• Committee markup: The agreement precedes the Senate Appropriations Committee’s markup of subcommittee allocations, including the Agriculture, Legislative Branch, and Military Construction-VA bills.

• Compromise: Senate Republicans have pushed for more defense spending, while Senate Democrats seek comparable increases for nondefense programs. The agreement aims to balance these demands.

• Emergency spending history: Last year, a similar agreement provided nearly $14 billion in emergency spending, but it did not make it into the final packages due to House Republican opposition.

• Hurdle: House Republicans are likely to oppose the $34.5 billion emergency spending addition, though increased defense spending may attract some support.

— House Freedom Caucus voted to remove Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) after he backed the challenger to the group’s chairman, Bob Good.

— Lawmakers from states like New York and New Jersey are strategizing to roll back the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap in next year’s tax package. The 2017 tax law capped the SALT deduction at $10,000, expiring at the end of 2025 along with other provisions. Members of the bipartisan SALT caucus are meeting to form a proposal. While blue state lawmakers prefer letting the cap sunset, this is fiscally and politically challenging. Republicans support the cap to target high taxes in Democratic states, and some Democrats worry that removing it would mainly benefit high-income taxpayers. Therefore, compromises on SALT cap changes may be necessary. “Any steps that we can take to bring some relief to our neighbors is what we want to do,” said Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.).

— Israeli and U.S. officials showed optimism about a potential ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, as Hamas showed willingness to compromise on a key issue. A senior Hamas official confirmed the group might reconsider its demand for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza before a temporary truce and hostage release process. Talks resumed in Doha and will continue in Cairo.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office expressed doubts, emphasizing principles like resuming fighting in Gaza until all war objectives are achieved. Israel’s war on Gaza began nine months ago in response to Hamas’ October 7 attack, which killed 1,200 people and took over 250 hostages. The conflict has devastated Gaza, displacing nearly its entire population and causing over 38,000 deaths.

Experts suggest Netanyahu’s conditions could hinder progress. Former Israeli hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin noted that the conditions block progress and are against Hamas’ demands.

President Joe Biden proposed a three-phase deal:

• Six-week withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, hostages exchange for Palestinian prisoners.

• Release of remaining hostages.

• Reconstruction of Gaza and return of deceased hostages’ remains.

Biden’s administration believes the deal is consistent with U.S. interests, despite concerns about Netanyahu’s political maneuvers and the potential impact on negotiations.

— Russia launched rare daylight strikes on Ukraine Monday, partially flattening the country’s largest children’s hospital. The attacks killed at least 39 people and injured nearly 200 others, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Local officials highlighted that the medical center is crucial for treating some of the country’s sickest children, performing around 7,000 surgeries annually, including treatments for cancer and hematological diseases. In response to these deadly strikes, the UN Security Council will hold a special meeting today, following Zelenskyy’s call for an emergency assembly and his vow of retaliation.

— Danielle Fumagalli was named acting assistant USTR for Japan, Korea and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation affairs, according to an announcement. Fumagalli served as deputy AUSTR in the same office.

— Six new agricultural officers sworn into Foreign Service. USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, Alexis Taylor, administered the oath of office to six new Foreign Agricultural Service officers. The officers will be stationed at U.S. embassies and diplomatic missions on three continents. They will monitor agricultural production and trade, identify export opportunities, enhance food security, and support U.S. foreign policy objectives.

Officers and Assignments:

• Damian Ferrese (Pittsburgh, Pa.) - Nairobi, Kenya
• Joshua DeMoss (Gilmer, Texas) - Beijing, China
• Jeffrey Galloway (Los Angeles, Calif.) - Accra, Ghana
• Benjamin Henderson (Denver, Colo.) - Hanoi, Vietnam
• Katherine McBride (Colorado Springs, Colo.) - Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
• Jason Wrobel (Chicago, Ill.) - Guatemala City, Guatemala

— China’s State Council has initiated an investigation into reports that fuel tanker trucks were used to transport cooking oil without proper cleaning, following an investigation by Beijing News. The investigation revealed that some tanker trucks were transporting edible oils immediately after carrying chemicals, such as coal-based oils, without adequate cleaning, posing significant health risks.

The practice of using the same tankers for both chemicals and edible oils is reportedly a cost-cutting measure employed by companies, exacerbated by the lack of stringent regulations mandating separate tanks for different substances. This has led to widespread public outrage and calls for thorough investigations and stricter regulations to ensure food safety.

Sinograin, a state-owned entity overseeing China’s grain and oil reserves, has announced an internal investigation and promised to terminate contracts with carriers found violating regulations. The company has also vowed to report significant transgressions to regulatory authorities and take strict disciplinary actions against subsidiaries and employees involved. Despite these assurances, public skepticism remains high due to past food safety scandals and the perceived lax enforcement of regulations.

The controversy has reignited concerns about food safety in China, highlighting the need for robust regulations and enforcement to protect consumers and maintain the integrity of the food supply chain.

— Dalton, Ga. solar panel maker to collect hundreds of millions in federal tax credits for U.S. manufacturing chain plans. A solar panel maker in Dalton, Georgia, that has booked $230 million in federal tax credits stands to collect hundreds of millions more as it pursues plans to create the first end-to-end solar manufacturing chain in the U.S. Link for details.

— Iowa regulators approve public meetings for Summit Carbon Solutions’ pipeline expansion. State utility regulators in Iowa have approved a public meeting schedule starting in late August, where Summit Carbon Solutions will present its proposed expansion for its carbon dioxide pipeline system. Summit’s initial 690-mile pipeline network in Iowa was recently approved by the Iowa Utilities Commission, but construction cannot begin until they receive permission to build in North and South Dakota. The system aims to capture carbon dioxide at ethanol plants in five states and transport it to North Dakota for underground storage. The expansion in Iowa includes an additional 340 miles of pipeline to connect more ethanol plants, following new agreements with producers after Navigator CO2 abandoned a similar project. Summit now has agreements with 30 of Iowa’s 42 ethanol plants. Public meetings for the expansions will be held in 23 counties, after which Summit can negotiate land easements and petition for pipeline permits.

— Study: H5N1 not easily spread via air. The H5N1 virus infecting U.S. dairy cows is not easily transmitted through the air among ferrets, which are the best small mammal for studying influenza virus infection and transmission, a study by researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison showed. The study also confirmed the virus, isolated from the milk of an infected cow in New Mexico, made both mice and ferrets sick after exposure to the unpasteurized milk. A virus that can spread easily through the air between humans would pose a greater pandemic threat than H5N1 currently does.

— Biden’s doctor addresses neurologist visits amid White House tensions, confirms routine exam. X After a tense exchange in the White House briefing room regarding logs showing visits by a neurologist with expertise in Parkinson’s, the White House released a letter from President Biden’s doctor, Kevin O’Connor, disclosing that the president was examined by the doctor as part of his annual physical. O’Connor stated that the neurologist, Kevin Cannard, has been a consultant at the White House medical unit since 2012 and was selected not for his specialization in movement disorders but because he is a highly trained and highly regarded neurologist. Earlier on Monday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre clashed with reporters about the visits (eight in the past eight months, according to the New York Times), refusing to name the doctor for privacy reasons while asserting that Biden is not being treated for Parkinson’s. A particularly heated exchange occurred with CBS News correspondent Ed O’Keefe.

In an MSNBC interview, Biden laughed off questions about age-related illnesses, citing his neurological exam and daily job performance as tests of his acuity.

— RNC approves 2024 platform focused on tax cuts, border control, and energy, reflecting Trump’s influence. The Republican National Committee’s (RNC) platform committee approved a 2024 platform outlining priorities for Donald Trump’s potential second-term agenda, focusing on tax cuts, border control, and boosting domestic energy production. Trump was extensively involved in drafting and editing the platform, which reflects his influence on the party. Link to platform.

Key points of the 2024 Republican platform include:

1. Immigration and border security:

· The platform endorses mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.

· It calls for strict border control measures, including completing the border wall.

2. Abortion:

· The platform takes a softer stance on abortion compared to previous years, avoiding calls for a federal ban.

· The platform notably mentions abortion only once, stating opposition to late-term abortions and advocating for the issue to be decided by individual states

· The platform supports access to IVF and birth control while opposing late-term abortions.

3. Economic policies:

· The platform advocates for tax cuts, including eliminating taxes on tips, and stopping outsourcing.

· Includes commitments to end inflation and restore economic growth through deregulation and tax cuts.

· Keep the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

· Supports a protectionist trade agenda, including increased tariffs on imports, particularly from China. It includes revoking China’s trade status, and repeats Trump’s proposal for across-the-board tariffs on imported products (60% tariffs on imports from China and 10% duties on those from the rest of the world). “Republicans will support baseline tariffs on foreign-made goods, pass the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, and respond to unfair trading practices,” the full platform says. “As tariffs on foreign producers go up, taxes on American workers, families, and businesses can come down.”

4. Energy:

· The platform emphasizes boosting domestic energy production, making the U.S. the dominant energy producer.

· Calls for canceling the electric vehicle mandate.

5. Social issues:

· The platform takes a less conservative approach to same-sex marriage compared to previous years.

· It targets transgender rights, proposing bans on transgender athletes in women’s sports and restrictions on gender-affirming care.

· It opposes federal support for schools teaching Critical Race Theory.

6. Government reform:

· The platform calls for ending the “weaponization” of the Department of Justice.

· It proposes dissolving the Department of Education.

· Calls for cutting regulations.

7. Election security:

· The platform advocates for measures to secure elections, though specific details are not provided in the search results

8. Foreign Policy and Defense

· National Security: The platform advocates for a national iron dome missile defense system and a strong stance against global conflicts.

· Military: It emphasizes rebuilding the military and ensuring national security.

Trump’s pledges to renew expiring tax cuts and reduce federal regulations are central to his campaign. As Trump prepares to return to the campaign trail with rallies in Florida and Pennsylvania, he plans to announce his running mate near the convention’s start. He has remained relatively quiet since a debate with President Joe Biden, allowing focus to remain on Biden’s performance.

The new platform is notably shorter than previous versions, consisting of only 16 pages. It was largely written by Trump campaign speechwriter Vincent Haley, with input and revisions from Trump himself. The platform was adopted earlier than expected, passing “overwhelmingly” on Monday despite initially being scheduled for discussion on Tuesday.

— Donald Trump’s final decision on his 2024 running mate is between North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), insiders tell the New York Post. Barring a last-minute surprise, the sources say, the 67-year-old Burgum and the 39-year-old Vance are the clear front-runners for the GOP’s VP slot, with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) still having an outside shot.

Other rumored options, such as Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Dr. Ben Carson, were dismissed as having little chance of being picked — with one source going so far as to say there was “no way” Trump, 78, would tap Carson. “It would honestly make no sense,” one source said.

Trump told Fox News’ Sean Hannity that he has not made a final decision on who his running mate will be.

— Democratic Party strategies if Biden steps aside. The following is a summary of a Washington Post article by Amber Phillips (link) on what party strategists think could happen even as President Biden insists he’s staying in the race.

1. Harris Takes Over:

• If Biden steps aside, Vice President Kamala Harris is the presumptive next option.
• Factors that could lead to Biden stepping down: plummeting polls, mass desertion by elected Democrats, and drying up donor money.
• Harris, despite not being widely popular, could engage Black women voters, a key Democratic base.

2. Rally Around Another Candidate:

• Some Democratic leaders doubt Harris’s ability to win.
• The party could rally around other popular governors or senators from swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
• Challenges: these candidates are not well known nationally, and the party’s infrastructure and fundraising are geared toward Biden-Harris.

3. Party Division on Nominee:

• If Biden steps aside without a clear successor, it could lead to a free-for-all at the August convention.
• A potential solution: a flash primary where Democratic delegates vote among a few candidates, though time constraints are a significant hurdle.

4. Biden Forced Out:

• This is highly unlikely and not preferable for Democrats.
• Changing the ticket without Biden’s agreement is almost impossible due to his secured delegate count.
• Convincing delegates to break party rules would require a charismatic candidate, and currently, the political will isn’t there.

5. State of Uncertainty:

• Prolonged uncertainty around Biden’s candidacy is detrimental, taking focus away from campaigning against Trump.
• Democrats need to quickly coalesce around Biden or a new candidate to optimize their chances of winning.

Key Quotes:
• “People want someone younger... we may be underestimating how much people hate Donald Trump.”
• “The question is how do you get from here to there?”
• “It’s a hard situation we have found ourselves in... and I think we all just want to win. The question for everyone is: How do we best do that?”

— National security: The Treasury Department will expand security reviews of foreign purchases of real estate near U.S. military bases, adding 56 facilities across 30 states to its review list.

— Starting Sunday, the price of a Forever stamp will rise to 73 cents, up from the current 68 cents. This marks the second increase this year, with the price having already gone up from 66 to 68 cents in January. Additionally, the cost of sending a postcard will increase by 3 cents domestically to 56 cents, and by 10 cents internationally to $1.65.

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