India Scores Some Big Wins in Powwow with Biden; U.S. Apple Growers Also Pleased

Farm-state lawmakers begin maneuvering for new farm bill funding, provisions

New rice sales to China reported by USDA. The Weekly Export Sales report for the week ended June 15 outlined sales of U.S. ag commodities to China for 2022-23 including 69,113 metric tons of corn, 55,000 metric tons of sorghum, 49,451 metric tons of soybeans, 33,568 running bales of upland cotton and 363 metric tons of rice. Sales for 2023-24 of 9,958 metric tons of wheat, 8,000 metric tons of soybeans and 137,382 running bales of upland cotton were also reported. Net sales of 4,745 metric tons of beef and 1,599 metric tons of pork were reported.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sees diminishing risk the U.S. will fall into a recession. She pointed to the labor market’s resilience and tamer price gains, but suggested weaker consumer spending may be the price to pay for cooler inflation.

Economists are seeing something weird in the inflation data. Consumers are splurging on pricey meals, through-the-roof airfare and expensive concert tickets.

Bloomberg Businessweek looks at the world’s empty office buildings and how they have become a debt time bomb. More in Markets section

The Supreme Court is set to release decisions today at 10 a.m. ET, with the possibility of ruling on the Biden administration’s student loan forgiveness plan. This plan aims to cancel up to $20,000 in debt for many Americans who have been waiting for months while payments remain paused. The court has not confirmed if the student loan case will be included in today’s rulings, and another release date is planned for Tuesday. The court also has not yet decided on affirmative action cases at Harvard University and the University of North Carolina.

Ford secured a $9.2 billion loan from the Department of Energy to build EV battery factories. It’s one of the largest loans of its kind ever. More in Energy section.

The Senate Appropriations Committee unanimously approved the Agriculture Department and Food and Drug Administration funding bill for fiscal year 2024. Details in Congress section, with some analysis on how amendments will be closely watched.

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) challenged meatpacker JBS with accusations that the company isn’t doing enough to stop deforestation tied to its cattle supply chains. Details below.

The Biden administration is set to ease visa restrictions for some skilled workers from India as soon as Thursday in conjunction with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit, Reuters reported. The program will allow a limited number of workers from India and other foreign countries to renew their H-1B visas in the U.S. without having to travel to another country. Meanwhile, a drone deal will help India track Chinese Troops on disputed border. Of note to the U.S. ag sector: There was some U.S./India trade policy news on Thursday relative to U.S./India relations. See the Trade Policy section.

War in Ukraine has resulted in food security concerns which may boost adoption of genetically modified crops globally, said Bayer AG’s Crop Science unit head, Rodrigo Santos.

This should catch the White House’s attention: Chinese firm sent large shipments of gunpowder to Russian munitions factory. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden on Thursday defended his harsh public comments on China, including calling President Xi Jinping a dictator. More in China section.

When does the farm bill expire? Even some ag reporters (and some farm-state lawmakers) get this question wrong, flatly writing it ends at the end of September. We have an explanation in the Policy section.

If you are confused as most are regarding dairy marketing order developments, Farm Bureau tries to size up the topic… see Policy section.

EU plans to relax GMO restrictions to help farmers adapt to climate change. Details below.

GAO: OSHA should strengthen rules to protect meat and poultry workers from infectious disease. Details in Livestock section.

According to Rabobank Protein Analyst Christine McCracken, California’s Proposition 12 law might inadvertently lead to the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) into the United States. McCracken also says that while the chicken sandwich wars may have cooled down for now, they will likely intensify again in the future.

At a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Thursday, the impact of Brazilian beef production on the environment was discussed, with a focus on deforestation in the Amazon.

The world’s largest dairy producer, France’s Groupe Lactalis, is expanding in Chicago after a $3.2 billion deal to acquire cheese brands from Kraft Heinz.

Former Texas Rep. Will Hurd announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential race, becoming the 12th Republican contender.

Republicans won’t beat Trump with 2016 strategy in 2023, says Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report. Meanwhile Charlie Cook says despite his legal perils, Trump’s standing among independents should worry Biden. David Wasserman, House editor of the report, sizes up Iowa House elections.

The GOP is pushing the Biden administration to quickly apply the recent Supreme Court ruling which significantly reduces the wetlands subject to Clean Water Act regulations.

$100 for one piece of bacon? Below we have details.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 200 points lower. In Asia, Japan -1.5%. Hong Kong -1.7%. China closed. India -0.4%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.8%.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow was down 4.81 points, 0.01%, at 33,946.71. The Nasdaq gained 128.41 points, 0.95%, at 13,630.61. The S&P 500 was up 16.20 points, 0.37%, at 4,381.89.

JPMorgan estimates that AI excitement drove 45% of this year’s gains in the S&P 500.

Global stocks are on course for their biggest weekly decline in more than three months amid several central bank rate hikes and pessimism over China’s recovery.

Economists are seeing something weird in the inflation data. Consumers are splurging on pricey meals, through-the-roof airfare and expensive concert tickets. Some economists in Sweden even blamed Beyoncé fans for driving up prices of hotels and restaurants when they converged on the country last month to see the star kick off her world tour. In the U.S., others have seen a similar effect with hotel prices soaring in cities where Taylor Swift performs. “It’s fun-flation, if you’re looking for a word,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, told the New York Times’ DealBook. And the data suggests this brand of inflation isn’t receding. “We’re looking at the summer of fun,” he said.

The Economist explores how ESG is angering some Republicans and has become a part of culture wars in the U.S. Link for details.

In Canada, the government has implemented the Online News Act, which mandates digital firms to pay domestic media organizations for their content. Despite warnings from Meta Platforms (META) regarding the potential consequences, the legislation has proceeded. In response, META will discontinue access to news on Facebook and Instagram for Canadian users. The company previously challenged a similar law in Australia in 2021, eventually reaching an agreement with authorities there. META currently faces scrutiny from regulators in California and on Capitol Hill as well.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: July corn futures led the complex lower, falling 10 1/2 cents to close at $6.60 1/2. December futures closed 8 cents lower to $6.20 3/4.
• Soy complex: July soybeans fell 14 1/4 cents to $15.00 1/2, after marking an intraday low of $14.68 1/2. November soybeans ended 37 1/2 cents lower at $13.39 1/2, carving a low-range close. July meal fell $14.50 to $424.70, while July soyoil rose 14 points to 55.77 cents after trading as low as 53.13 cents.
• Wheat: July SRW rose 4 1/2 cents to $7.39, while December SRW wheat rose 6 1/2 cents to $7.70 1/2, nearer the session high and hit a three-month high. July HRW wheat fell 2 3/4 cents to $8.71, though December HRW wheat gained 1 1/2 cents to $8.73 1/4, near mid-range and hit a five-week high. July spring wheat closed 1 1/4 cent higher at $8.80.
• Cotton: December cotton fell 37 points to 80.15 cents after notching an intraday low of 79.42 cents.
• Cattle: August live cattle rose $1.40 to $171.15. August feeder cattle gained $2.95 to $230.675. Prices closed near the session highs.
• Hogs: Hog futures fell sharply despite continued cash gains. Nearby July futures dove $2.90 to $91.85 Thursday, while most-active August tumbled $2.80 to $89.975.
  

Ag markets today: Corn and soybean futures faced active followthrough selling amid forecasts calling for improved rain chances for the Corn Belt. Wheat futures actively followed to the downside. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 14 to 16 cents lower, soybeans were 20 to 23 cents lower, winter wheat futures were 9 to 11 cents lower and spring wheat was 5 to 6 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures were around 85 cents lower, and the U.S. dollar index was more than 550 points higher.

Market quotes of note:

• A weaker yen is helping fuel Japan’s inflation. FX traders are now watching for official comments as the yen slumps toward a previous intervention point. Verbal intervention would effectively put yen shorts on notice that officials are ready to act, said Chris Weston of Pepperstone.

  
  

• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said the central bank needs to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation, adding her voice to the policymakers who want to resume hiking after taking a break from their tightening campaign last week.
  
• The days of China underpinning demand for metals like copper, aluminum and iron ore are over, according to Jefferies LLC. With the country facing a falling population and geopolitical challenges, longer-term consumption will now be dominated by the U.S. and Europe, analysts said.
  
• Trade policy: “The supply chain rules in these (free-trade agreements) tend to reinforce existing supply chains that are fragile and make us vulnerable.” — U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai.
  

On tap today:

• USDA Weekly Export Sales report, 8:30 a.m. ET.
• S&P Global’s U.S. manufacturing index is expected to tick up to a preliminary reading of 49.0 in June from a final reading of 48.4 in May. The services index is forecast to fall to 53.8 from 54.9. (9:45 a.m. ET)
• Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1 p.m. ET.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report, 3:30 p.m. ET.
• Federal Reserve speakers: Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic at a University of Georgia CFO Roundtable (8 a.m. ET) and Cleveland’s Loretta Mester on the economic and policy outlook at 1:40 p.m. ET.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the risk of the U.S. falling into recession is diminishing. This comes at the cost of a slowdown in consumer spending, which Yellen views as necessary to control inflation. These remarks come on the heels of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing the importance of returning U.S. inflation to 2% to ensure the long-term health of the economy. He indicated that one or two more interest rate hikes could be expected this year to achieve this goal.

Yellen spoke in an interview with Bloomberg News Thursday. “I’m not going to say it’s not a risk, because the Fed is tightening policy,” she said, alluding to the Federal Reserve’s 10 interest-rate hikes since March 2022, with potentially more to come.

Consumer prices in Japan rise at a faster-than-expected pace. Japan’s CPI excluding fresh food gained 3.2% in May, decelerating from a 3.4% rise in April but faster than the 3.1% estimate. That could fuel speculation the BOJ will raise its inflation forecasts in July and even tweak its stimulus program.

Bloomberg Businessweek looks at the world’s empty office buildings and how they have become a debt time bomb. Link. Major institutional owners including Blackstone, Brookfield and Pimco have already chosen to stop payments on some buildings because they have better uses for their cash and resources. “There’s significant stress,” says Harold Bordwin, a principal in New York at Keen-Summit Capital Partners LLC, which specializes in renegotiating distressed real estate. “People don’t give up assets so easily unless they just don’t see any hope and they recognize that they’re pretty well underwater.”

Eurozone private sector growth slows sharply. The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 50.3 in June, the lowest since January and below forecasts of 52.5. The latest reading indicated a sharp slowdown in the bloc’s output expansion due to a combination of a slower rise in service sector activity and a deepening downturn in manufacturing output.

Where’s the recession? Despite widespread predictions of an imminent recession last year, the economy has defied expectations and avoided a downturn. The reasons for this include falling energy prices and the jobs market’s lower-than-anticipated sensitivity to interest rates. As a result, investors, economists, and Federal Reserve policy makers now expect a modestly stronger economy, higher stock prices, and bond yields. Link to more via the WSJ.

The cost of thriving in America. Nearly every statistic says Americans are richer than they were a generation ago. Yet this seems wrong to many people who feel the American dream slipping out of reach. The big question: Are Americans better off today than they were in the 1980s? The Wall Street Journal looks at the cost of thriving and two conservative thinkers at odds over the evidence (link): Oren Cass of American Compass and Scott Winship of the American Enterprise Institute.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was higher, with the euro and British pound weaker against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was weaker, trading around 3.73%, with a lower tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil remained under pressure, with U.S. crude around $68.65 per barrel and Brent around $73.55 per barrel. Gold and silver were mixed, with gold higher around $1,929 per troy ounce and silver weaker around $22.39 per troy ounce.

• The biggest warning sign that a much-anticipated recession has been delayed, not defeated, is that short-term interest rates remain well above 10-year Treasury yields, in what’s known as an inverted yield curve.

• Asia emerges as the new crypto market hub amid regulatory framework developments. With U.S. regulators targeting major crypto exchanges (see next item), trading volumes have shifted to Asia, with billions of dollars now being traded in the region. As market makers and exchanges migrate resources to areas with regulatory frameworks, investors and marketplaces are increasingly drawn to Singapore, Japan, South Korea, and recently Hong Kong, which introduced a new crypto regulatory regime this month.

• A pair of court battles between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Coinbase could significantly impact the future of cryptocurrency trading in the U.S. Currently, the cryptocurrency industry is trying to disrupt traditional finance but is encountering challenges from regulators, who have been addressing the sector through sporadic enforcement rather than clear rulemaking. In July 2022, Coinbase called for the SEC to provide a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. However, the SEC failed to respond, and in March, warned Coinbase that it was likely to be the target of an enforcement action. Consequently, Coinbase filed a petition in April, asking the court to force the SEC to respond to its petition. On June 6, the SEC filed an enforcement action against Coinbase, alleging that it violated securities laws by not registering as an exchange.

The outcomes of these court cases could clarify two key questions: (1) How is it determined whether a cryptocurrency is a security? (2) How can exchanges and digital-asset intermediaries legally register to do business in the U.S.? If the legal answers are unworkable or inconsistent, pressure may increase on Congress to develop new laws that better suit the industry. Nonetheless, political gridlock is complicating matters.

Coinbase Chief Legal Officer, Paul Grewal, says that the company is ready to rely on the courts, underscoring the need for clarity and an end to operating in uncertainty with unpredictable enforcement actions as the primary means of regulating crypto in the U.S.

• The Turkish lira sank to a new record low despite the central bank raising interest rates by 6.5 percentage points. The move reversed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unconventional policy of lowering rates to tackle the country’s high inflation, but analysts had expected a bigger hike. Despite the bank promising more interest-rate rises, the lira fell to 24.97 against the dollar on Friday.

• Ag trade: Algeria purchased an unspecified amount of corn expected to be sourced from Argentina.

• NWS weather outlook: There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday, and a second area over the Florida Panhandle on Friday... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains on Friday and a Slight Risk of Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday... ...Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern Texas.

NWS

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Grains sharply lower overnight
• Russia lowers wheat export tax for tenth straight week
• French wheat crop ratings slip into harvest
• Cattle on Feed Report will show further tightening of feedlot supplies
• Cold Storage Report also out this afternoon
• Cash cattle trade turns more active
• July hogs’ premium to cash narrows

— In the early stages of Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia, the Russian forces have displayed greater competence than anticipated by Western assessments. As a result, Ukraine’s efforts are falling short of expectations. Russian defenses have been well-fortified, proving difficult for Ukrainian forces to penetrate, and missile attacks and mines, along with effective use of air power, have further bogged down Ukrainian armor. However, officials stress that it is still early in the counteroffensive, and maintain optimism that Ukraine will eventually make territorial gains. The Ukrainian military has recently reported success in two regions in the southern front, as well as staving off a Russian advance in the east.

— War in Ukraine has resulted in food security concerns which may boost adoption of genetically modified crops globally, said Bayer AG’s Crop Science unit head, Rodrigo Santos. Nations in Asia and Africa, affected by the disruption in grain supplies, are seeking self-sufficiency, leading them to explore advanced technologies from companies like Bayer. Bayer is in talks to provide its innovations in China, Thailand, and other countries in Asia and Africa. The company is a major supplier of genetically modified crops and is also investing in digital farming technology aimed at reducing carbon emissions in agriculture.

— A leading agriculture Democrat is considering incorporating almost $20 billion from the climate and tax law enacted last year into the upcoming farm bill, instead of being exclusively for climate-smart farm conservation programs. Republicans have been interested in using the conservation funds for general spending in this year’s farm measure. Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who previously resisted diverting the funds, now suggests she’s open to reallocating some of the money to the baseline portion of the bill, as long as it remains climate-focused. She made the remarks Thursday during a Bloomberg event. Link to more on this and our analysis in a special report filed Thursday.

— U.S. lawmakers might need to pass a short-term extension of the current farm bill due to delays in drafting the next one. As noted on Thursday, Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) couldn’t give a date for when the committee will release a draft. But “there’s always been a short-term extension,” she told Bloomberg, clarifying that “on time” for past farm bills hasn’t meant exactly on time. “That would not surprise me, but I feel very comfortable.” House Ag Chair G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) is aiming for a markup of the House farm bill version in September. However, “anybody can get a farm bill done if you watered it down to the point of being meaningless,” he said. “We’re not doing that. We are setting a high bar.” The two lawmakers attribute the delays to Covid-19 pandemic-related hearing postponements and negotiations over the federal debt ceiling deal passed in early June. Despite these challenges, the lawmakers say they are working as quickly as possible.

— Work training provided through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) should be updated to help recipients most effectively, Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) signaled along with Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), and House Ag Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson during a Bloomberg Government session. While stricter work requirements for the farm bill are off the table, Stabenow suggests that states need to improve their SNAP employment and training programs.

A little background is needed about the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, the measure that dealt with the debt limit and some budget reform. The measure places additional work requirements on older Americans who receive SNAP benefits, but it also expands food stamp access for veterans, homeless people and young adults transitioning out of the foster care system. As part of the agreement, so-called able-bodied adults who are 54 and younger and do not have children must work or participate in a training program for at least 80 hours a month to receive food stamps for extended periods of time. Otherwise, they can receive benefits for only three months over a three-year period. Prior to the change, work requirements applied to adults ages 49 and younger. The CBO concluded the changes would actually add recipients to SNAP, on net.

Waivers. The debt ceiling deal also requires USDA to make public the applications that states submit to waive work requirements for areas with high unemployment, and reduces the share of people a state can exempt to 8% of total beneficiaries from 12%. Currently, 26 states utilize waivers to exempt individuals from work requirements. Some say states abuse these waivers and ignore work requirements for Able Bodied Adults Without Dependents (ABAWDs) on SNAP to participate in work, training, or education for 20 hours a week.

There are several types of state waivers for SNAP, some of which include:

• Time Limit Waivers: The standard SNAP rule imposes a three-month time limit every three years for certain able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWDs) to receive SNAP benefits. However, states can request time limit waivers for areas with high unemployment rates or a lack of sufficient jobs.
• ABAWD Work Requirement Waivers: States may request waivers to exempt ABAWDs from meeting work requirements due to economic conditions, such as high unemployment or lack of available jobs.
• Administrative Waivers: These allow states to change certain SNAP procedural aspects to reduce administrative burdens or costs, streamline the application process, or apply certain eligibility rules in a different way. Common examples include altering the benefit issuance schedule or simplifying the reporting process for changes in a recipient’s circumstances.
• Demonstration Project Waivers: States may request special waivers to pilot innovative program models or strategies. The evaluation of these pilot programs helps inform the development of future SNAP policies and practices.

— When does the farm bill expire? Even some ag reporters get this question wrong, flatly writing it ends at the end of September. It’s more complex than that. According to the Congressional Research Service:

• Some farm bill programs…
  • Expire if not reauthorized, and may be revised
  • Are permanently authorized, and may be revised
  • Utilize mandatory funding that exists in the CBO baseline
  • Authorize future discretionary appropriations
• 2018 Farm Bill
  • Many programs expire on 9/30/2023
  • Certain programs expire after the 2023 crop year
  • “Permanent law’ for farm commodities resumes on 1/1/2024
    • Farm bills suspend permanent law — for life of farm bill
    • Permanent law from 1940s uses “parity” prices from 1914
    • Outdated supply controls
    • “Dairy cliff”: Support price of milk could more than double
    • Expensive for government and potentially for consumers

A Southern Ag Today article (link) noted that “only about 5% of the funding is actually facing the threat of expiration. Why? The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is what’s known as an appropriated entitlement. In other words, if the farm bill expires, the appropriators will continue to fund SNAP. Beyond that, crop insurance is permanently authorized by legislation outside of the farm bill. In addition, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) recently reauthorized spending for the major conservation programs. Further, annual appropriations bills have provided significant funding for ad hoc disaster programs over the past four years for programs such as WHIP, WHIP+, and ERP.”

— Farm Bureau analyzes dairy marketing order developments. The American Farm Bureau Federation released an analysis (link) of the battle over how USDA should modernize the Federal Milk Marketing Order program.

— Biden defends calling Xi a dictator. President Joe Biden on Thursday defended his harsh public comments on China, including calling President Xi Jinping a dictator, saying his words would have no negative impact on U.S./China relations and that he still expects to meet with Xi in the future. Link to more via the Associated Press.

— Chinese firm sent large shipments of gunpowder to Russian munitions factory. The previously unreported shipments between a state-owned Chinese company and a Russian munitions factory last year raise new questions about Beijing’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Link for details via the New York Times.

— U.S., India resolve trade disputes. The U.S. and India resolved six trade disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO), including those involving former President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs and India’s retaliatory duties. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden announced the development, which came after National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby previously indicated that no specific trade resolution was expected.

Details: India will remove retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. products, while the U.S. will maintain its steel and aluminum tariffs. India agreed to remove retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. products, including chickpeas, lentils, almonds, walnuts, apples, boric acid and diagnostic reagents, that it imposed after former President Donald Trump slapped duties on steel and aluminum imports using Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act. Both nations agreed to terminate four other WTO disputes — two of those had been filed by India and two by the United States. That still leaves one filed by the United States in 2012 challenging India’s poultry trade barriers. Additionally, Modi and Biden discussed the possibility of India rejoining the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program and touched on government procurement issues and high-performance computing technology exports..

USTR comments. “Today’s agreement represents the culmination of intensified bilateral engagement over the last two years, including through the U.S./India Trade Policy Forum, to deepen our economic and trade ties,” U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai said in a statement (link). “As a result of our work, U.S. agricultural producers and manufacturers will now enjoy renewed access to a critical global market and we will strengthen our trade relationship with one of our closest partners.

USTR said the resolution “also maintains the integrity of the U.S. Section 232 measures.” That means India agreed to lift its trade retaliation without the U.S. altering the steel and aluminum tariffs that Trump imposed, a USTR spokesperson said.

USApple President and CEO Jim Bair said the group is “thrilled” with the announcement that India will lift its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. apples. “U.S. apple growers can now begin the work of competing for, and hopefully regaining, this critical market,” said Bair. “We look forward to once again shipping great apples to this valued trading partner.” Prior to the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum from India in 2018, the country was the No. two market for U.S. apples, quickly growing, USApple said. When India retaliated by bringing total tariffs on U.S. apples to 70%, sales fell to nearly zero, costing U.S. growers half a billion dollars in sales, USApple detailed.

Of note: Biden and Modi announced a series of defense and commercial deals designed to improve military and economic ties between their nations. As well as plans to collaborate on F414 engine-making and an agreement that allows American Navy ships to make repairs at Indian shipyards, the two leaders debuted a series of semiconductor deals designed to take advantage of Indian subsidies intended to bring advanced technology manufacturing to the nation. Link to White House fact sheet.

Bottom line: Among the deals that India got: a long-delayed purchase of $3 billion worth of Predator drones; a joint venture with General Electric to produce next-generation jet engines in India; pledges by chipmakers including Micron and Applied Materials to invest in plants there; and other initiatives on telecommunications, artificial intelligence and more. And as noted, the U.S. and India resolved several disputes before the World Trade Organization, with Modi agreeing to lift retaliatory tariffs on a range of American exports.

The visit’s most surprising breakthrough was when President Biden coaxed Modi into taking questions from reporters at a joint news conference, one of the rare times the nationalist prime minister has done so in his nearly decade-long tenure, the New. York Times noted (link). Challenged on his record on human rights and religious freedom, Modi insisted that democracy is “in India’s DNA” and denied that his government has fostered prejudice in serving its people.

— EU plans to relax GMO restrictions to help farmers adapt to climate change. The Financial Times reports (link/paywall) controls could be eased on plants ranging from wheat able to withstand drought to fungus-resistant tomatoes. This decision could spark a new European-wide debate surrounding the controversial techniques.

A draft regulation, seen by the Financial Times, proposes that many modified plants be approved as conventional rather than undergo the expensive and laborious existing GMO regime. The plan aims to determine and categorize plants that have used gene editing to create new varieties that could have been achieved through traditional breeding. Such plants include drought-resistant wheat, fungus-resistant tomatoes, and potatoes containing reduced acrylamide, which becomes carcinogenic when fried.

EU officials believe these new techniques are critical for maintaining crop yields while contending with changing weather patterns and reducing the use of pesticides, fertilizers, and other chemicals.

The proposal is expected to be put forward by the European Commission on July 5. While gene editing is distinct from genetic modification, plants that could not arise naturally would require full GMO authorization.

Opposition from Greenpeace and some political groups is anticipated, but EU officials say that easing the regulations on gene-edited crops would have benefits for the environment and food security. Most member states, which also need to agree on the proposal, have reportedly expressed support for loosening GMO rules. Lifting the effective ban on gene-altered crops would assist not only the EU but also potentially the developing world, allowing them to deal with climate change more effectively.

— The U.S. gov’t is granting Ford Motor Co. a $9.2 billion conditional loan, the largest government backing for a U.S. automaker since the 2009 financial crisis. This move is in line with President Joe Biden’s aggressive industrial policy to boost American manufacturers’ competitiveness in green technologies against China. Ford and South Korean battery company SK On Co. have established a joint venture called BlueOval SK to build three battery factories in Kentucky and Tennessee, supporting Ford’s transition into the electric vehicle market. By 2026, the company aims to produce as many as 2 million EVs, a significant increase from the 132,000 produced in 2022.

In an interview on CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS, Ford Motor Co. Executive Chairman Bill Ford Jr. expressed concerns that the U.S. is not yet prepared to compete with China in the electric vehicle (EV) market. He highlighted China’s rapid development and large-scale production of EVs, and warned about the potential for Chinese exports to disrupt the US market. As a result, Ford is adopting an “all hands on deck” strategy to enhance their preparedness.

China’s position in the global automobile industry is rapidly evolving, as they are now on track to become the world’s second-largest exporter of passenger vehicles. Chinese car exports have skyrocketed from 2020, reaching over 2.5 million in 2022, which challenges traditional automobile powerhouses like Germany.

— GAO: OSHA should strengthen rules to protect meat and poultry workers from infectious disease. Meatpacking plants experienced high rates of Covid-19 infections due to workers standing close together, cold temperatures, and the need to shout over machinery. USDA and the Department of Labor (DOL) did not collaborate effectively to protect worker health, according to a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report (link). Over 86,000 meatpacking workers contracted coronavirus and 423 died before October 2021, with infection risks in some plants much higher than the general population.

The GAO recommends the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) investigate infectious disease dangers in meat and poultry processing and determine how to better protect workers. The report states that OSHA and the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) have not found a way to reconcile their differing missions. OSHA has previously been criticized for not protecting meat industry workers.

The GAO report suggests both agencies meet regularly to resolve collaboration challenges. OSHA was also found to have inadequately investigated many meatpacking worker deaths during the pandemic, often using rapid response investigations that did not involve visiting plants.

— Senators introduce the Livestock Disaster Relief Act,. The bipartisan bill, introduced by Sens. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is aimed at improving the Livestock Forage Program (LFP) and Emergency Assistance for Livestock Program (ELAP) — see related item below for background information on these programs.

The proposed legislation seeks to better support ranchers affected by natural disasters. It includes the following improvements:

• Better alignment of coverage between LFP and ELAP,
• Increased producer assistance under LFP for more accurate feed cost compensation,
• Specified transportation costs for feed, water, and livestock as covered losses under ELAP,
• Makes these program enhancements permanent.

The senators aim to advance the legislation as part of the upcoming farm bill.

— Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) purchases for feeder cattle have significantly increased since 2021, while LRP for fed cattle has also experienced growth. LRP, an insurance policy allowing cattle producers to insure a minimum price level for a specific period, was developed to offer hedging opportunities to smaller-scale producers who cannot sell 50,000 pounds of cattle at once. Increased premium subsidy rates in 2019 and 2020 lowered LRP costs for producers, leading to a rise in fed cattle LRP contracts sold. The number of such contracts and insured heads has nearly quadrupled in 2021 and 2022. Despite the recorded growth, the number of fed cattle insured with LRP remains relatively small compared to the number of eligible cattle. It remains to be seen how the increasing fed cattle prices will affect LRP policy purchases for the rest of the year. Link to Southern Ag Today. Link to another Southern Ag Today article on What’s in the Farm Bill for Livestock Producers?

— Analyst: Proposition 12 could increase risk of ASF reaching U.S. According to Rabobank Protein Analyst Christine McCracken, California’s Proposition 12 law might inadvertently lead to the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) into the U.S. Speaking at the Rabobank BBQ Index Virtual Media event, McCracken explained that the law, which prohibits the raising or sale of pork from pig farms using gestation stalls, could raise pork prices and lead to an increase in cross-border pork movement. This, in turn, could risk the spread of ASF, which has not yet been detected in the U.S., though it is present in some Caribbean nations.

McCracken praised the pork industry’s preparedness and the federal government’s efforts in intercepting smuggled pork.

— Chicken sandwich wars could return. The chicken sandwich wars may have cooled down for now, but according to Rabobank Protein Analyst Christine McCracken, they will likely intensify again in the future. During a recent media event, she acknowledged some recent softness in the quick service restaurant (QSR) sector, which has affected breast meat pricing. However, she believes that rising beef prices could lead to a resurgence in the popularity of chicken sandwiches, as diners may opt for more affordable options. The chicken sandwich wars began in 2019 when Popeyes launched its chicken sandwich and challenged Chick-fil-A, with other QSR establishments following suit.

— Brazilian cattle production topic at Senate hearing. At a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Thursday, the impact of Brazilian beef production on the environment was discussed, with a focus on deforestation in the Amazon. Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) condemned JBS, a major Brazilian meat producer, for allegedly participating in harmful practices that contribute to climate change and hurt American ranchers. Wyden introduced the Cattle Price Discovery and Transparency Act, which aims to bring transparency and accountability to the U.S. cattle market.

The committee also discussed plans to modernize and improve the customs system, including better data collection and information sharing to gain insights into U.S. supply chains.

— Cottage cheese, once popular among older generations, has made a comeback, particularly among Gen Z and millennials, thanks to innovative and creative recipes shared on social media platforms like TikTok. With new recipes featuring cottage cheese in dishes like ice cream, pasta sauce, and pancakes, its popularity has soared with younger consumers. There has been a 15.9% increase in cottage cheese sales in the U.S., reaching $1.2 billion in the 52 weeks ending May 21, according to market-research firm Circana. Dairy companies like Good Culture have reported growth, and Cabot Creamery also noticed this revitalized interest. One potential reason for the revival is the increasing consumer focus on protein-rich diets, as cottage cheese contains slightly more protein than Greek yogurt. Link to WSJ article for more.

— The world’s largest dairy producer, France’s Groupe Lactalis, is expanding in Chicago after a $3.2 billion deal to acquire cheese brands from Kraft Heinz. Lactalis Heritage Dairy plans to hire nearly 100 employees in Chicago in the coming year, according to CEO Peter Cotter. This expansion comes as part of the company’s integration of Kraft’s natural cheese brands like Cracker Barrel and Knudsen, following their $3.2 billion deal. Lactalis aims to capitalize on growth opportunities in the U.S., its second-largest market. The company has already completed the first phase of separation from Kraft, and the transition agreement for supply chain and finance systems will end in March. Lactalis Heritage Dairy now represents 39% of the group’s total U.S. business, and despite the tight labor market in engineering, manufacturing, and technical areas, the company remains confident in attracting talent from businesses leaving the city. Cotter acknowledges inflation concerns but believes some softening will occur, with potential value being passed on to consumers.

— Former Texas Rep. Will Hurd announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential race, becoming the 12th Republican contender. Known for his criticism of former President Donald Trump, Hurd has made his opposition clear, particularly after Trump’s indictment and arrest over allegations of mishandling classified documents. Hurd’s entry into the race follows speculation fueled by his recent visits to early voting primary states. The former congressman will now compete in a crowded field of candidates, hoping to challenge Trump, the current front-runner, for the Republican nomination.

— Republicans won’t beat Trump with 2016 strategy in 2023. So says Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report. “Among Republican primary voters, Donald Trump is more popular and seen as more electable than he was back in 2015,” she writes. “Traditional polling, which asks binary “yes/no” or “agree/disagree” questions, is unable to capture the gray area in which many GOP voters are living in regards to Trump. To beat Trump, a GOP candidate has to capture this ambivalence into a compelling message that breaks through the current ‘all Trump, all the time’ media focus.”

Meanwhile Charlie Cook says despite his legal perils, Trump’s standing among independents should worry Biden. Cook: “Once again, the presidential race is coming down to the independent voters, and Donald Trump has reason to smile despite months of legal peril. Many have noted this is the first time we have had a rematch between a sitting president and the prior Oval Office occupant, but it’s worth exploring what that really means. Voters will be able to make a choice with the benefit of a side-by-side comparison, comparing Trump’s four years in the White House with what in November 2024 will be three years and 10 months for Joe Biden.”

— After 2022 shutout, Democrats on offense in Iowa House races. According to David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter: “Republicans pulled off a clean sweep in Iowa last November, leaving Democrats without any representatives from the Hawkeye State for the first time in 28 years. The GOP retains the upper hand here in 2024, though they’ll have to defend three seats President Donald Trump won by less than five points in 2020. The 3rd District (Creston, Des Moines, Ottumwa) is likely to see the fiercest competition after Rep. Zach Nunn won by less than a point in 2022. And in the 1st District (Davenport, Indianola), Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks could face some competition considering her 53%-47% win last year. Iowa’s other two seats should easily remain in the Republican column.”

— House Republicans are focusing on tax proposals with their opening marker which can pass the House, but not the Senate. Their proposal to fund the plan involves removing key green-energy tax breaks and omits provisions that Democrats are passionate about, such as child tax credit and earned income tax credit expansions. The proposal could still jump-start negotiations on a year-end tax package, and shows the direction the GOP wants to take if they control Congress and the White House post-2024.

The House Republican plan includes:

• Increased standard deductions: $4,000 for couples, $2,000 for singles, and $3,000 for household heads.
• Changes to information reporting rules: Reversing the lower $600 threshold for 1099-Ks, and increasing the reporting threshold for nonemployee payments to $5,000.
• Tax savings for businesses: E.g., reviving 100% first-year bonus depreciation, raising Section 179 expensing limit to $2.5 million, and restoring full R&D expensing.
• Alterations to interest deductions on business debts of large firms, and providing gain exclusion for sales of shares in S corporations that qualify.

Notably missing from the plan is an increase in the cap for deducting state and local taxes (SALT) on Schedule A from $10,000, which some House members from high-tax states were seeking.

Of note: In response to the $10,000 federal SALT cap implemented in 2018, most states (36 in total) have now created workarounds to assist business owners, especially those using partnerships or other pass-through entities. These workarounds allow pass-through entities to elect to pay an entity-level state income tax, instead of having the owners pay the state tax on income that passed through to them. Consequently, this approach offers the owners a state tax break on their pro rata share of taxes paid by the business. This shift in state income tax payments transfers the tax from business owners, who are subject to the federal SALT cap, to the pass-through entities that remain unaffected by the cap. In 2023 alone, seven states have adopted a variation of this strategy.

— The Senate adopted a set of allocations for the 12 annual government funding bills, sticking to spending figures outlined in the bipartisan debt-limit deal. In contrast, a conservative-led push in the House provided less money. Senate Appropriations Committee adopted the allocations in a 15-13 party-line vote and plans to use redirected funds to adjust the spending levels. The figures represent a $12.2 billion cut from fiscal 2023 enacted level. Despite these cuts, the document projects a slight increase in outlays, amounting to over $1.8 trillion.

The Democrats (link) and Republicans (link) on the Appropriations Committee each released a summary of the bill.

The Commerce-Justice-Science bill is projected to have a $6 billion increase in outlays, while the Financial Services bill faces a $500 million cut.

Meanwhile, the Senate advanced the Agriculture-FDA and Military Construction-VA bills, two of the most bipartisan measures, in 28-0 votes. The Agriculture-FDA bill would provide $26 billion in discretionary funds, while the Military Construction-VA bill would provide $135.3 billion in nondefense discretionary funds and $19.1 billion for military construction. The Senate Ag spending bill would fund the agencies at $25.993 billion, more than $8 billion above the funding level in the Republican-led House bill.

Of note: Months before a new farm bill reaches the House and Senate, ag groups might get insights into the challenges they could face in defending crop insurance, sugar and other programs during the upcoming floor debates on the fiscal year 2024 USDA spending bill. These debates will allow critics to propose amendments for farm bill programs and will provide insight into which proposals may garner support. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), the top Republican on the Senate Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee, said that the voting on these amendments will reveal the areas they need to work on during the farm bill debate.

Senate appropriators are set to convene again on July 13 to discuss the Commerce-Justice-Science, Financial Services, and Legislative Branch spending bills.

— Wheat drought crop insurance bill unveiled. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) introduced a bill on Thursday aiming to provide farmers with more options to insure their wheat enterprise units. Currently, the Risk Management Agency (RMA) restricts farmers to insuring fallow and continuous wheat enterprise units together. The proposed legislation would direct the RMA to offer additional actuarially sound options to wheat farmers who are facing challenges, particularly with the 1200-year drought impacting the Western United States. The bill aims to ensure better protection for different wheat management styles and help farmers effectively manage their crops and operations.

— WOTUS update. The GOP is pushing the Biden administration to quickly apply the recent Supreme Court ruling which significantly reduces the wetlands subject to Clean Water Act regulations. Key Republican lawmakers penned a letter (link) to EPA Administrator Michael Regan and Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works Michael Connor, urging prompt compliance with the majority opinion. They argue the administration wasted time by finalizing its Waters of the U.S. rule in January when a Supreme Court ruling was on the way. Since the recent ruling in Sackett v. EPA is seen as less complex, the lawmakers believe it should be implemented faster. Following the May 25 decision, both the EPA and Army Corps of Engineers are reviewing the ruling and have temporarily halted issuing determinations on applicable wetlands and streams.

— Cotton AWP moves lower. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton declined to 65.50 cents per pound, effective today (June 23), down from 67 cents per pound the prior week. Meanwhile, USDA announced that Special Import Quota #10 will be established June 29, allowing for the import of 37,110 bales of Upland Cotton, applying to supplies purchased not later than Sept. 26 and entered into the U.S. not later than Dec. 25.

— $100 for one piece of bacon? Artex is launching an innovative $55 million initial public offering for Francis Bacon’s well-known artwork, “Three Studies for a Portrait of George Dyer.” For the first time, individual investors can purchase shares of a renowned artwork at around $100, providing them access to the elite world of art collecting. This debut marks a significant step in making the art market more accessible to regular investors.

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