IMF Releases Updated Forecasts: ‘Chances of a Hard Landing Have Risen Sharply’

IMF: Global growth of 2.8% this year, 3% in 2024 | U.S. economy expanding 1.6% this year

The IMF expects global growth of 2.8% this year and 3% in 2024, slightly below the fund’s estimates published in January. The IMF said that its baseline forecast “assumes that the recent financial sector stresses are contained.” Details and country/region forecasts below.

The IMF stressed that signs of resilience alongside lower global energy and food prices masked a darker reality. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said: “Below the surface… turbulence is building, and the situation is quite fragile… Inflation is much stickier than anticipated even a few months ago,” he said. “More worrisome is that the sharp [monetary] policy tightening of the past 12 months is starting to have serious side effects for the financial sector.” Upshot: “Risks to the outlook are heavily skewed to the downside, with the chances of a hard landing having risen sharply,” the IMF said.

The Pentagon is investigating the leak of purported classified documents. While the Justice Department and FBI lead a criminal investigation into the leak, the Pentagon has assembled a team to conduct its own inquiry to determine the authenticity of the photographs of the purported classified slides that appeared online. Pentagon officials and the government’s other investigators are also trying to assess the extent of the potential damage and the identity of the leaker while attempting to soothe allies mentioned in the files. A South Korean official on Monday said Seoul is investigating the circumstances around the leak. U.S. officials said the documents originated in the government, but some may have been altered. The documents were reportedly changed to understate estimates of Russian casualties and overstate those of Ukrainian forces.

The U.S. designated Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter held in Russia, as “wrongfully detained,” a status equivalent to that of a political hostage.

Russian oil and gas revenues fell 45% in the first quarter, as its deficit exploded due to the costs of the war. The average price for Russia’s Urals-grade crude oil was $47.85 a barrel in March, down from $89.05 last March.

France’s Emmanuel Macron draws criticism over Taiwan remarks. President’s call for Europe to set its own policy on Taiwan prompts rebukes on both sides of the Atlantic. See China section.

China signals readiness to further ease trade dispute with Australia. A review of barley duties shows ties between Beijing and Canberra are improving. Canberra agrees to suspend WTO complaint ahead of Beijing’s push to join regional CPTPP pact. See China section for details.

Mexico on Monday announced it has established a working group to review the impact of GMO corn imports on the country’s tortillas, with Mexico’s health authority Cofepris and scientific council Conacyt will head the risk-assessment effort. More in Trade Policy section.

FSIS to extend comment period for 30 days on Product of USA proposed rule. See Policy section for details.

USDA published a notice in the Federal Register to increase the fiscal year (FY) 2023 overall sugar marketing allotment quantity (OAQ); increase beet and State cane sugar allotments; revise company allocations to sugar beet and sugar cane processors; and reassign beet and cane sugar marketing allocations to raw cane sugar imports already anticipated.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 50 points higher. European shares rose to a one-month high Tuesday, as investors returned to work following a long Easter break and eyed the start of the earnings season this week as well as March’s U.S. inflation report due Wednesday. Traders also digested the latest U.S. jobs report showing a still-tight labor market and cementing expectations of a 25bps rate hike by the Fed during the May 2-3 FOMC meetings. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup will all report their results on Friday. In Asia, Japan +1.1%. Hong Kong +0.8%. China -0.1%. India +0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.8%. Frankfurt +0.4%.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow gained 101.23 points, 0.30%, at 33,586.52. The Nasdaq was down 3.60 points, 0.03%, at 12,084.36. The S&P 500 was up 4.09 points, 0.10%, at 4,109.11.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: May corn rose 10 1/2 cents to $6.54, ending the session above the 10- and 40-day moving averages.
• Soy complex: May soybeans fell 5 1/4 cents at $14.87 1/4, while May soybean meal fell $3.60 to $450.70. May soyoil fell 5 points to 54.48 cents.
• Wheat: May SRW wheat rose 3 cents at $6.78 1/2 and near mid-range. May HRW wheat gained 11 1/2 cents at $8.76 and nearer the session high. Spring wheat futures rose 3 cents to settle at $8.75, 11 cents off the intraday high.
• Cotton: May cotton fell 75 points to 82.45 cents, ending the session below the 100-day moving average.
• Cattle: June live cattle rose 60 cents to $163.70, nearer the session high and hit another contract high. May feeder cattle gained 22 1/2 cent to $205.625 and nearer the session high.
• Hogs: June lean hogs rose 97.5 cents to $89.15, nearer the session high.
  

Ag markets today: Soybean futures posted corrective gains overnight, while wheat pulled back from Monday’s gains and corn held near unchanged. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading fractionally on either side of unchanged, soybeans were 4 to 8 cents higher and wheat futures were 2 to 5 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures were posting modest losses, while the U.S. dollar index was trading just above unchanged.

Market quotes of note:

• Bitcoin jumped past $30,000 on Monday for the first time since June, according to Coin Metrics. Those gains could usher in some momentum, with James Lavish, managing partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, calling a move into the mid- to high-30s “likely” — if it pushes through with conviction.

  Bitcoin has gained 81% this year, far outperforming other risky assets. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100, which is made up of the world’s biggest tech stocks, has gained roughly 20 percent in that period — good enough to enter bull market territory.

  
  

• Economists see headline inflation falling slightly. That’s mainly because of energy prices easing year-on-year. But core inflation is expected to edge up to 5.6 percent. The big culprit is rents, according to Michael Gapen, Bank of America’s chief U.S. economist, which he expects to stay elevated into the second half of 2023.

  According to the Sevens Report: “We need to be sure to focus on core CPI, because it’s possible that we could see a sharp drop in headline inflation that’s driven by falling commodity prices, while core CPI remains buoyant. Remember, the 2% Fed target is for core inflation, ignoring food and energy. So, if those two influences push headline inflation lower, but core remains sticky and in the upper-to-mid 5% range, that will materially reduce the chances the Fed cuts anywhere near current market expectations.”
  

• Stocks have been rising on the hopes that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate-boosting cycle. Michael Hartnett, a BofA equities strategist, thinks that is misguided. Investors, he said, are “too optimistic on rate cuts and not pessimistic enough on recession.”
  

• Long-term raw sugar contracts are surging amid supply concerns extending into 2024, especially in the upcoming year as the shift to an El Niño weather pattern could harm production from key exporters India and Thailand. The steep increase in sugar prices is a worry for consumers but also for commodities traders holding short positions as margin calls are draining a lot of cash, said Arnaldo Correa, a partner at Archer Consulting.

  
  

On tap today:

• International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook at 9 a.m. ET, followed by its Global Financial Stability report at 10:30 a.m. ET. See next item.
• Federal Reserve speakers: Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee to the Economic Club of Chicago at 1:30 p.m. ET, Philadelphia’s Patrick Harker on the economic outlook at 6 p.m. ET, and Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari at Montana State University at 7:30 p.m. ET.

IMF cuts GDP forecasts, says global economy heading for weakest growth since 1990. The IMF said that five years from now, global growth is expected to be around 3% — the lowest medium-term forecast in a World Economic Outlook for over 30 years. In the short term, the fund expects global growth of 2.8% this year and 3% in 2024, slightly below the fund’s estimates published in January. The IMF said that its baseline forecast “assumes that the recent financial sector stresses are contained.”

In the short term, the IMF expects global growth of 2.8% this year and 3% in 2024, slightly below the fund’s estimates published in January. The new estimates are a cut of 0.1 percentage points for both this year and next. “The anemic outlook reflects the tight policy stances needed to bring down inflation, the fallout from the recent deterioration in financial conditions, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and growing geoeconomic fragmentation,” the IMF said in the same report.

The IMF sees the U.S. economy expanding by 1.6% this year and the euro zone growing by 0.8%. However, the United Kingdom is seen contracting by 0.3%.

China’s GDP is expected to increase by 5.2% in 2023, according to the IMF, and India’s by 5.9%. The Russian economy — which contracted by more than 2% in 2022 — is seen growing by 0.7% this year.

World Bank President David Malpass said the bank had revised its 2023 global growth outlook to 2% from a forecast of 1.7% earlier this year. Malpass said the higher revision was due to an improved forecast for China’s economy following Covid-19 lockdowns. China’s economy is now forecast to grow 5.1% this year, up from 4.3%. However, Malpass, who will be stepping down as president in June, warned that turmoil in the banking sector and rising oil prices could dampen growth prospects in the second half of 2023.

Subdued longer-term growth. In a separate statement with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva, the World Bank head said global growth would be around 3% for the next five years.

An era of ultra-low interest rates will return as soaring inflation becomes a historical blip, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said. In a boon to homeowners, the Washington-based organization said that an ageing population coupled with low productivity will tame inflation and lead to interest rates returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Williams dismisses link between rapid Fed hikes and bank stress. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams rejected the idea that the central bank’s aggressive interest-rate increases precipitated recent financial strains highlighted by the failure of a large U.S. bank.

U.S. consumers say it is getting more difficult to obtain credit and see inflation rising more quickly in the short term, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The share of respondents who reported that credit is much or somewhat harder to get than a year ago rose to 58.2% last month. That level was the highest ever in a data series that dates back to June 2013. The share of respondents who expect credit to be more difficult to get a year from now also rose, to nearly 53%, as did respondents’ perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months.

North American airlines are short about 17,000 pilots and are currently staring down a wave of coming retirements—almost half of U.S. airline pilots are 50 or older, with a mandatory retirement age of 65. Better training technology, improved financial support and more rigorous student screenings are all helping address the pilot shortage.

Eurozone retail sales fall in February. Retail trade in the Euro Area dropped by 0.8% from a month earlier in February, following an upwardly revised 0.8% growth in January and matching market expectations. The latest reading added to signs of continued subdued domestic demand across the bloc due to a combination of stubbornly high inflation, rising borrowing costs and concerns over a potential recession.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker, with the British pound and euro firmer against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was nearly unchanged, trading around 3.41%, while global government bond yields were mostly higher. Crude oil futures were lower, with U.S. crude around $79.50 per barrel and Brent around $83.85 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were higher, with gold trading around $2,015 per troy ounce and silver around $25.08 per troy ounce.

• The value of Bitcoin rose above $30,000 for the first time in ten months, buoyed by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will end its monetary policy tightening soon. The cryptocurrency has made steady gains in recent weeks, rising by about 23% in March. The value of Ether, another cryptocurrency, is also close to an eight-month high.

• Ag trade: Taiwan tendered to buy 65,000 MT of corn to be sourced from the U.S., Brazil, Argentina or South Africa and 52,850 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Japan is seeking 78,548 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender. Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Algeria tendered to buy a nominal 50,000 MT of optional origin durum wheat.

• Deforestation of Brazil’s Amazon rose 14% in March, official data showed. According to the country’s space research agency, 137 square miles — an area twice as big as Washington, D.C. — of rainforest were cut down. Despite pledges to stop deforestation, the new figures underscore the challenges President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government faces in reverting the exploitation of the Amazon unleashed during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency.

• NWS weather outlook: Heavy rains to spread over the Central Gulf States and Southeast beginning today... ...Widespread warm up across much of the Lower 48 the next few days ahead of the next sweeping cold front... ...Elevated fire weather concerns across the Plains through tomorrow; New England today.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Varied grain price tone awaiting USDA’s reports
• HRW CCI rating declines, SRW rating improves
• Consultant raises Brazilian crop estimates
• Aussie weather favorable for now, but El Niña looms.
• Cash cattle post all-time high
• Cash hog index extends price drop

— Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi ordered subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be smuggled to Russia, leaked intelligence revealed. Egypt — which receives more than $1 billion a year in security aid from the U.S. — is considering supplying artillery rounds and gunpowder too. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised commodity prices and put pressure on Egypt, the world’s top importer of wheat. El-Sisi traveled to Saudi Arabia earlier this month as Cairo seeks to ease financial pressure on its faltering economy.

— Russia is using airstrikes and artillery to destroy the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, in what Ukraine’s top land commander calls “scorched Earth” tactics. Meanwhile, Ukraine is working to hold back Russian forces in the region, with more than 20 attacks repelled within 24 hours, according to Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces.

— Russia’s plans to cut oil production are looking like reality, with the nation’s seaborne shipments collapsing last week. Flows dropped by 1.24 million barrels a day, the biggest weekly decline since December.

— Australia says they have reached deal with China on barley exports. Australia and China have resolved their dispute over barley trade, with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong announcing Australia will suspend a case against China’s antidumping and countervailing duties on Australian barley while China will quicken the pace of its review of the tariffs. “China has agreed to undertake an expedited review of the duties imposed on Australian barley over a three-month period, that may extend to a fourth, if required,” she said in Sydney. “In return, we have agreed to temporarily suspend the WTO dispute for the agreed review period.” Expectations are the timeline of the review signals that Australian barley supplies will start arriving in China by year-end.

She also said a similar agreement is expected to be reached on duties China has applied on Australian wine.

— Kazakhstan bans truck imports of wheat from Russia. Kazakhstan banned imports of wheat from Russia by truck to prevent contraband re-exports. Importing wheat from Russia and re-exporting it to Central Asia and Afghanistan allows illegal traders to dodge VAT and transit fee payments and hurts Kazakh farmers, authorities say. Kazakhstan’s ag ministry has cited estimates that “grey” imports of Russian wheat amount to 1.5 MMT to 2 MMT per year.

— Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal is in Canada for an official visit, where he’ll request additional aid and ammunition for an expected counteroffensive effort out of Ukraine, according to local media. “Now, we need heavy armored vehicles. And we need more artillery shells: ammunition for howitzers and ammunition for tanks,” Shmyhal told Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail in an interview. “It’s crucially important for the organization of our counteroffensive.” Shmyhal will meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and said in a tweet, “We are preparing new agreements and deals to strengthen the macro-financial and economic stability of [Ukraine]. We are working for victory.”

— FSIS to extend comment period by 30 days on Product of USA proposed rule. USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) said it will extend the comment period on its proposed rule covering changes to voluntary use of Product of USA labels for meat/products to June 11 from an original May 12 date. FSIS has proposed that to use the terms Product of USA and Made in USA on a label require that the products be derived from animals born, raised, slaughtered, and processed in the United States. FSIS announced the extension April 7, but it has yet to appear in the Federal Register. The North American Meat Institute (NAMI) requested a 60-day extension of the comment period for the proposed rule. Already there have been more than 845 comments filed on the FSIS proposed rule.

— USDA to increase FY 2023 sugar marketing allotments, announces other actions. USDA published a notice in the Federal Register (link) to increase the fiscal year (FY) 2023 overall sugar marketing allotment quantity (OAQ); increase beet and State cane sugar allotments; revise company allocations to sugar beet and sugar cane processors; and reassign beet and cane sugar marketing allocations to raw cane sugar imports already anticipated. The actions apply to all domestic beet and cane sugar marketed for human consumption in the U.S. for FY 2023.

Details: USDA is shifting allocations from sugar beet processors with surplus allocation to those with deficit allocation, is reassigning a specified amount of the deficit to raw cane sugar imports that were already anticipated given the absence of any sugar stocks owned by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC).

The changes were made based on the March WASDE report and USDA will issue its April WASDE report today, which will be watched for any indication of additional changes.

— $75 million for organic transition funding. Two USDA agencies earmarked $75 million in conservation assistance for producers who are transitioning to organic production. Link for details.

— Australia will host a senior Chinese official this week for the first time in six years, a sign that relations are warming.

— Macron sparks anger by saying Europe should not be ‘vassal’ in U.S./China clash. The French president made the remarks in an interview on his plane after a three-day state visit to China, where he received a red carpet welcome by China’s president, Xi Jinping. Speaking to reporters from Les Echos and Politico, Macron said Europe should be a third power in the world order, along with the U.S. and China. While the comments reaffirmed Macron’s long-term goal of “strategic autonomy” for Europe, namely avoiding military and economic dependencies, his remarks on Taiwan stoked anger and alarm on both sides of the Atlantic.

According to Les Echos, Macron said: “Do we [Europeans] have an interest in speeding up on the subject of Taiwan? No. The worst of things would be to think that we Europeans must be followers on this subject and adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.” He added it would be “a trap for Europe,” now it had developed more autonomy since the Covid pandemic, to get caught up in crises “that are not ours.”

— China’s inflation rate lowest in 18 months. Inflation in China eased for the second straight month in March despite signs of a pickup in the economy, a cautionary signal on the strength of the nation’s recovery as it emerges from nearly three years of strict Covid-19 controls. Consumer prices rose just 0.7% in March from a year earlier, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday, the lowest annual rate of inflation since September 2021. The figures suggest the lifting of Covid controls in China isn’t generating the kind of broad price pressures that propelled inflation sharply higher in the U.S. and other major economies as growth revved up after the worst of the pandemic passed.

Details: Food inflation fell to a 10-month low (2.4% vs 2.6% in Feb.), due to a steeper drop in cost of fresh vegetables and despite a faster rise in pork prices. Also, non-food prices continued to ease (0.3% vs 0.6%), linked to further declines in cost of transport (-1.9% vs 0.1%) and housing (-0.3% vs -0.1%). By contrast, inflation was unchanged for health (at 1.0%) while cost quickened for education (1.4% vs 1.2%). Core consumer prices, excluding the volatile prices of food and energy, went up 0.7% yoy, after a 0.6% gain in February. On a monthly basis, consumer prices unexpectedly dropped 0.3%, the second straight month of fall, missing estimates of a flat reading.

— China’s new loans record-large in Q1. China’s banks extended 3.89 trillion yuan ($560 billion) in new loans in March, more than double the 1.81 trillion yuan in the previous month. That was also the largest amount of new bank loans for March since at least 2004. China’s new bank lending hit an all-time high in the first quarter of 2023, as policymakers pledged to step up support for the economy recently hit by weak exports and the property downturn.

— China is a selective renter. Previously unreported lending records show that the state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China paid an estimated $7 million to rent space in Trump Tower while Donald Trump occupied the White House and then departed after the former president left office, less than two years into a five-year lease extension.

— Mexico details review of GMO corn safety. Mexico on Monday said it established a working group to review the impact of GMO corn imports on the country’s tortillas, with the Mexico’s health authority Cofepris and scientific council Conacyt heading the risk-assessment effort.

The Biden administration has asked for consultations under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on Mexico’s ban on imports of GMO corn for food use, arguing the products are safe. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has also rejected Mexico’s calls for a study on the GMO crop safety, arguing there are “hundreds” of studies which signal GMO crops are safe.

Mexico insists that its ban, which would take effect in 2024, is not a trade issue since Mexico is basically self-sufficient in corn grown to make tortillas. But the U.S. has taken the stance Mexico’s decision is not based on science which they say Mexico committed to in making decisions on biotechnology issues based on science under USMCA.

— Africa’s expanding population could create massive political, economic and humanitarian problems. But it also offers major new possibilities for growth and prosperity and is seen as a prime area for new trade agreements.

— The FBI is warning users about free EV charging hook-ups, saying criminals have hijacked some of the stations and infected them with malware that could grant hackers access to your personal devices. The connections have become popular in airports, hotels and shopping malls — even on public streets — but they’re susceptible to so-called “juice jacking” according to the Federal Communications Commission. The FBI says it’s best to carry your own USB cable and find a standard electrical outlet in a pinch.

— Bolstered by tax incentives, Occidental is spending more than $1 billion to build the first in a planned fleet of plants using direct-air capture to pull massive amounts of carbon dioxide out of the air. CEO Vicki Hollub said the plan will help the company reach net-zero emissions on all its operations, its own energy use and its customers’ use of its products by 2050, while allowing it to keep investing in oil extraction. She also expects the clean-energy efforts to eventually become more lucrative than Occidental’s chemical segment, the next-biggest revenue generator after oil and gas.

— Climate change is becoming an accounting issue, Taylor Francis, a co-founder of Watershed, told the New York Times’ DealBook, as climate disclosures move from corporate social responsibility reports to 10-K filings. “Nowhere is that more true than on Scope 3, where there’s about to be a lot of regulator scrutiny on how you do the math,” he said. European regulators, for example, recently cracked down on fashion companies’ use of the “Higg Index,” a ratings system that has been criticized for strongly favoring synthetic materials made from fossil fuels over natural ones.

— End-around getting EV tax credit. Today, 39 of the 91 EVs on the market — including plug-in hybrids — are eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit, per the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, an auto industry lobby group. But that number is expected to shrink significantly starting next week under new rules. But reports note that leasing — rather than buying — an EV is one way around the new requirements. Leased vehicles still qualify for the tax breaks as “commercial” vehicles. When someone leases, the vehicle owner is the bank or finance company. Drivers are merely “renting” for two or three years. Hyundai and Kia are among the companies doing more leasing.

— Germany’s per capita meat consumption fell to its lowest level since at least 1989. Government stats showed that the average German ate 115 pounds of meat in 2022, 9 pounds less than in 2021 and lower than any year since the government started keeping records. Meat production also fell.

— President Joe Biden signed a bill Monday ending the national emergency for Covid-19 — months before he intended for the declarations to cease. One White House official downplayed the bill, saying that “to be clear, ending the National Emergency will not impact the planned wind-down of the Public Health Emergency on May 11" — which enabled the government to provide many Americans with Covid-19 tests, treatments and vaccines at no charge. The bill to end the national emergency cleared the Senate last month in a bipartisan 68-23 vote and passed the GOP-led House earlier this year. The White House had signaled strong opposition to the bill but said Biden would sign it if it came across his desk.

— The U.S. government is launching a $5 billion-plus program to accelerate the development of new Covid-19 vaccines and treatments, officials from the Biden administration and the Department of Health and Human Services confirmed yesterday. An HHS official said “Project Next Gen” will encourage public-private collaborations, similar to the “Operation Warp Speed” program that helped develop and distribute Covid vaccines under former President Donald Trump in 2020.

— The Justice Department asked an appeals court to block an abortion-pill ruling. The Biden administration filed an emergency request Monday, saying that a federal judge in Texas usurped the FDA’s authority by ruling that the pill shouldn’t have been approved. The drug’s brand-name manufacturer, Danco Laboratories, filed a similar motion, citing the potential harm the ruling posed to millions of women who rely on the pill and to Danco’s livelihood as a one-drug company. Hundreds of pharmaceutical industry leaders also weighed in, saying in an open letter that the Texas decision could threaten FDA regulation of medicines more broadly. Meanwhile, some Democratic-led states announced contingency plans to stockpile abortion drugs.

— Biden says he intends to seek re-election, is not prepared to announce yet. As President Biden hosted the annual White House Easter Egg Roll on Monday, he said he plans to participate in “at least three or four more Easter egg rolls, maybe five.” The president was alluding to his expected re-election bid, but when pressed for news by Al Roker of NBC’s Today show, he gave no ground and repeated what he’s been saying for months. Biden said, “I’m planning on running, Al, but we’re not prepared to announce it yet.”

— Expelled Tennessee lawmaker is sworn back in. Justin Jones, one of two Black Democrats banned from the state’s House of Representatives last week after leading a protest on gun safety, won back his seat following a unanimous vote in his home district of Nashville. His swift return is a big rebuke to the Republican-led House that voted to expel him. Justin Pearson, the other banished Democrat, could be reinstated as soon as this week.

— GOP House report card. House Republicans emerged from their first 100 days struggling to carry out much of their agenda while facing debt limit and spending showdowns that could make or break their ability to hold their majority, according to a Bloomberg assessment. Details:

— Punchbowl: White House shows docs from Trump, Biden and Pence homes. The White House has started giving lawmakers, including the leaders of the House and Senate intelligence committees, access to classified documents that were recovered from the homes of Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and Mike Pence, Punchbowl reports.

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