House Sets Tentative Tuesday Vote on Budget Resolution | DOGE Demands Weekly Reports from Federal Workers

USDA Ag Outlook Forum | Food price update | U.S. ag trade update | HPAI/egg price plan | USDA payments

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February 22, 2025 05:11 PM

WEEK AHEAD_PF_FINAL.jpg — The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead: Feb. 22, 2025

— FDA reverses some employee layoffs amid workforce cuts. The FDA began reversing termination notices for some laid-off employees late Friday, instructing them to return to work after mass firings a week ago. Probationary workers in the Center for Devices and Radiological Health were among those recalled, following industry backlash. The agency has not disclosed how many terminations will be reversed, but affected employees are expected to regain network access by Monday. The layoffs stemmed from President Trump’s executive order aimed at shrinking the federal workforce, impacting multiple health agencies, including the CDC and NIH.

— DOGE demands weekly reports from federal workers. The Trump administration has ordered over 2 million federal employees to submit a list of last week’s accomplishments or face resignation. The directive, issued by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), requires workers to send a five-bullet summary to their managers by Monday night. Musk, acting as a special government adviser, claimed the move was directed by President Trump, though he lacks the authority to fire federal employees.

The American Federation of Government Employees responded to Musk’s tweet with a statement expressing frustration. “Once again, Elon Musk and the Trump Administration have shown their utter disdain for federal employees and the critical services they provide to the American people. It is cruel and disrespectful to hundreds of thousands of veterans who are wearing their second uniform in the civil service to be forced to justify their job duties to the this out-of-touch, privileged, unelected billionaire who has never performed one single hour of honest public service in his life,” the group wrote. “AFGE will challenge any unlawful terminations of our members and federal employees across the country.”

— In the face of escalating egg prices, the Trump administration is formulating a fresh approach to combat avian influenza, emphasizing vaccinations and enhanced biosecurity measures over the mass extermination of chickens when an outbreak occurs. National Economic Council (NEC) Director Kevin Hassett has been reviewing different proposals that may have already been presented late last week to President Donald Trump. While Hassett has not divulged many specifics about the new approach, he mentioned that it would entail a “better, smarter perimeter” around poultry farms. He argued that it is illogical to kill all the chickens within that perimeter when the disease is being propagated by wild ducks and geese.

In a special report on possible new options (link) we released Friday, we noted that the U.S. poultry industry has historically been reluctant to vaccinate flocks against bird flu due to potential impacts on export markets and the associated costs. Most U.S. trading partners refuse imports from countries that permit vaccinations, fearing that vaccines could conceal the presence of the virus. The Trump administration is reportedly discussing a regionalization of poultry trade — trading with states outside impacted areas, but that has to be negotiated with trading partners and that takes time. A regionalization approach could be taken but only after more vaccines are available. While there are already regionalization agreements in place with some countries on bird flu, a likely update of those agreement would likely be necessary due to any vaccination efforts ahead. Our Friday report discussed this and other issues relative to HPAI and escalating egg prices.

But note this: A new approach carries a BIG RISK if the plan fails and accelerates bird flu. There are no silver bullets when it comes to the task of dealing with HPAI and egg prices.

More on HPAI and the egg price situation below, including a look at Canada.

— U.S. stocks experienced their worst slide in two months on Friday, Feb. 21, as a series of gloomy economic reports raised concerns about the impact of President Trump’s policies on the economy. The major stock indexes saw significant declines: The S&P 500 fell 1.7%, marking its largest single-day percentage drop since December 18, 2024. The Dow plunged 748.63 points (1.69%) to 43,428.021. The Nasdaq lost 438.36 points (2.20%) to 19,524.011.

Key factors behind the decline
· U.S. business activity decelerated, with growth slowing to a 17-month low
· Consumer sentiment deteriorated, with the University of Michigan survey showing a 10% drop compared to January
· Existing home sales were weaker than expected
· Worries about President Trump’s tariffs potentially reigniting inflationary pressures
· Uncertainty surrounding federal government policies, including spending cuts and geopolitical developments
· Americans are becoming increasingly doubtful about the economy. Expectations for inflation rose sharply, with consumers anticipating prices to be 4.3% higher 12 months from now, up from 3.3% in the previous month
· Walmart’s disappointing guidance sparked fears of dampening consumer demand
· The market decline was broad-based, with nearly 4 out of 5 stocks in the S&P 500 falling. Economically sensitive sectors, such as transportation, semiconductors, small-caps, housing, and consumer discretionary, experienced declines of more than 2%.
· Investors sought safety in bonds, causing yields to fall as concerns about economic growth and persistent inflation intensified. The CBOE volatility index closed at its highest level since Feb. 3, 2025, reflecting increased market uncertainty.

— Trump’s energy czar pushes aggressive oil & mineral mapping plan. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is spearheading a plan to map the full extent of oil, gas, and mineral deposits on U.S. federal lands, aiming to boost energy development, reduce reliance on foreign sources, and shrink national debt. Speaking at CPAC, Burgum emphasized the economic potential of public land resources, aligning with Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” strategy. His proposal envisions a stronger role for the U.S. Geological Survey in assessing the value of these assets, potentially paving the way for expanded leasing, mineral extraction, and even land sales — moves that have sparked criticism from environmentalists.

— U.S. proposes revised minerals deal with Ukraine amid concerns. The U.S. has introduced a revised minerals agreement with Ukraine, asserting that the revenue will support Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction.

· Revenue allocation: Ukraine must forfeit 50% of its natural resource revenue, with 66% from reclaimed Russian-occupied territories, until a U.S.-controlled fund reaches $500 billion.
· Postwar investment: The U.S. may reinvest some revenue into Ukraine’s infrastructure and resource development.
· Concerns: The deal could divert funds from Ukraine’s defense, lacks security guarantees, and has faced opposition from President Zelenskyy.
· U.S. perspective: The Trump administration sees this as a way to offset U.S. aid, while National Security Adviser Michael Waltz calls it a “historic opportunity.”

Bottom line: Despite U.S. assurances of economic benefits, Ukrainian officials remain wary of the agreement’s terms and potential risks.

— Milei pushes for U.S./Argentina trade deal at CPAC. Argentine President Javier Milei made a strong case for a free trade agreement with the United States during his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) near Washington. Milei wants Argentina to be the first to join a reciprocal trade accord proposed by the Trump administration, citing Trump’s stance on tariffs. Argentina’s Mercosur membership is a key obstacle, but Milei suggests the country would already be negotiating a deal without it. Milei aligns himself with Trump’s vision, advocating for smaller government and economic freedom. He met with Elon Musk, gifting him a chainsaw as a symbol of government efficiency, and discussed economic policies with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva.

Based on Argentina’s export profile and recent developments in its agricultural and energy sectors, several products could potentially be part of a trade agreement between Argentina and the U.S.:

Agricultural Products
· Soybeans and soybean products: Argentina is a major exporter of soybean meal ($8.34B) and soybean oil ($4.39B).
· Corn: This is Argentina’s second-largest export commodity ($6.62B).
· Wheat and other cereals: Argentina is known as “the world’s silo” due to its high exports of cereals.
· Meat and meat preparations: These are among Argentina’s largest food exports.
· Tree nuts: Exports to the U.S. have shown significant growth (267% over 10 years).

Energy Products
· Crude petroleum: This is one of Argentina’s top exports ($3.72B).
· Natural gas and LNG: Argentina is developing its capacity to export natural gas, particularly from the Vaca Muerta shale formation.
· Biodiesel: Although previously restricted by the U.S., this could be reconsidered in a new agreement.

Potential Areas for Cooperation
· Lithium and copper: Argentina is seeking to leverage its critical minerals for energy transition.
· Green hydrogen and e-fuels: There’s potential for Argentina to become a supplier of low-carbon products.

Bottom line: Any trade agreement would likely focus on reducing barriers for these key exports while addressing concerns such as investment protection, regulatory harmonization, and access to markets. The agreement might also include provisions for cooperation in energy transition and decarbonization efforts

— Newsom seeks $40 billion for L.A. wildfire recovery. California Governor Gavin Newsom has requested nearly $40 billion in federal aid to help Los Angeles recover from the devastating January wildfires, which could become the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. In a letter to congressional leaders, Newsom emphasized the need for support to rebuild homes, infrastructure, and businesses across affected areas like Pacific Palisades and Malibu. His request includes $16.8 billion from FEMA, $9.9 billion in housing grants, and billions more for local governments and businesses. However, funding approval may face political hurdles, as some Republicans propose attaching policy conditions to the aid package.

WASHINGTON FOCUS

Last week, Congress had a slow week (House was out, Senate was in) while most of the action and energy was in the Executive Branch, even in areas usually reserved for Congress. In brief: Trump 2.0. But activity in Congress could accelerate if House leaders follow their current plan to vote on their budget resolution as soon as Tuesday. That all depends on a few rebel House GOP members who, frankly, get up each morning and wonder what bill they are going to vote no on.

— House GOP faces internal struggles over budget vote. House Republican leaders are pushing for a vote Tuesday on their sweeping fiscal 2025 budget resolution (HConRes 14), aiming to fast-track key Trump legislative priorities. However, they face resistance within their own party, needing near-unanimous GOP support to advance the measure.

While leaders frame the vote as a procedural step to enable reconciliation, Medicaid cuts remain a major sticking point, with centrist Republicans wary of deep reductions while hardliners demand even steeper spending cuts. Meanwhile, moderates hope to influence the final package through negotiations with the Senate’s more measured approach. The Senate GOP passed its resolution early Friday morning.

— Can House Ag Chair Thompson make sure a new farm bill is done this year? Could be. Remember last December when farm-state lawmakers revolted against an end-of-year spending package that did not contain economic and disaster aid for the ag sector? Their strategy worked as the funding was in the final measure that passed Dec. 21. Will House Ag Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) and other farm-state Republicans use the same tactic relative to the eventual vote on a reconciliation measure following a hard-to-get budget resolution vote? A reconciliation measure that includes most if not all of the farm bill provisions, including higher reference prices and changes to the SNAP and Thrifty Food Program, would not need any Democratic votes to clear if Republicans hold together.

— On the ag front, several focal points this week include:

Monday: USDA releases the Chickens & Eggs report. This has become important because of HPAI and egg prices. We will dissect the report once released. On Friday we issued a special report (link) on possible options the Trump administration could take on changing how to deal with bird flu and how to deal with high egg prices. We may get an official update on the topic this week from NEC Director Kevin Hassett. It was initially expected late last week. Proposals are reportedly under discussion.
Tuesday: USDA issues its latest Food Price update. Attention again will be on egg prices.
Thursday: USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, USDA Commodity Outlooks, and Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. . Link to forum program. USDA Commodity Outlooks for 2025-26 will also be issued.
Friday: USDA Ag Outlook Forum concludes.

— Update on USDA payments. We reported last week that USDA announced the release of nearly $20 million in conservation funding from previously paused contracts under three key programs: the Environmental Quality Incentive Program (EQIP), the Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP), and the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). This marks a partial unfreezing of the $25 billion in conservation funds that the Trump administration halted through executive action.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins defended the funding pause, stating that the Biden administration had “rushed out hundreds of millions of dollars of IRA funding that was supposed to be distributed over eight years.” Rollins explained that after careful review, USDA determined that some of the allocated funds were unrelated to agricultural purposes. “After careful review, it is clear that some of this funding went to programs that had nothing to do with agriculture — that is why we are still reviewing — whereas other funding was directed to farmers and ranchers who have since made investments in these programs,” Rollins said Thursday.

The freeze was enacted via an executive order signed by President Donald Trump on Jan. 20, halting funds provided by both the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (Climate Act) and the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (PL 117-58). Senate Democrats on the Appropriations Committee noted in a fact sheet that this freeze encompassed $25 billion intended for grants aiding renewable energy, climate resiliency, watershed protection, flood mitigation, and rural broadband expansion.

USDA’s decision to release a portion of these funds drew bipartisan reactions. Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) expressed approval, stating, “I’m pleased the Department will honor these contracts with America’s farmers. This is a very difficult time for our producers, and any financial disruption can have significant consequences.”

Meanwhile, Senate Ag Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) welcomed the move but criticized the continued uncertainty. “While I truly welcome the USDA decision to restart payments for some programs, it appears many programs remain frozen and there still isn’t clarity whether existing contracts will be terminated in the future, leaving farmers in limbo,” Klobuchar said, urging the Trump administration for further transparency.

The National Farmers Union (NFU) sees the USDA’s move as a necessary first step but is calling for broader action. “Farmers are now making business decisions for the coming year and can’t wait much longer. We urge USDA to quickly complete its review, release all remaining funds, and ensure continuity in these essential programs,” the NFU said in a statement Friday.

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall revealed that he had met with Rollins to convey the concerns of rural communities.

USDA indicated that this $20 million release is the first step in a broader review of funding tied to the 2022 law. Additional announcements are expected as the agency examines programs for any connections to diversity, equity, accessibility, and inclusion initiatives or “far-left climate” policies.

Of note: Direct farmer payments, including forthcoming ones from the $10 billion in economic aid and $21 billion in ag disaster aid that were cleared by Congress on Dec. 21 will be paid after USDA implementation procedures are completed. Social media conjecture that these payments may not be made are just that, conjecture and wrong.

— Canada’s egg supply management: stability amid bird flu and price volatility. Canada’s supply management system for eggs is helping stabilize prices and mitigate risks from bird flu outbreaks, especially in contrast to the U.S.

Key benefits:

Stable prices: Canadian egg prices have risen moderately compared to the sharp spikes in the U.S.
Risk management: Collaboration among farmers aids in disease control and risk mitigation.
Resilient supply chain: Regional flexibility helps maintain supply when outbreaks occur.

Structural strengths:

Smaller farms: Lower-density farms reduce the risk of widespread disease transmission.
Geographical dispersion: Canada’s vast landmass limits rapid virus spread.

Challenges & criticisms:

Higher base prices: Consumers consistently pay more, even in stable periods.
Protectionism concerns: Critics argue it favors farmers over consumers.

Upshot: While the system ensures stability and resilience, the debate continues over its long-term cost to consumers.

Egg price comparison, Canada and U.S.

Canada:

Per kilogram: Egg prices range from CAD 6.92 to CAD 17.65 per kilogram. Converting to USD, this equates to approximately $4.87 to $12.41 per kilogram.
Per pound: Prices range from CAD 3.14 to CAD 8.01 per pound, which is about $2.21 to $5.63 per pound in USD.
Per dozen: A dozen Grade A eggs cost between CAD 4.85 and CAD 5.00, translating to approximately $3.41 to $3.52 USD.

United States:

National average: In January 2025, the average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs reached $4.95.
Regional variations: Some states reported prices up to $9.73 per dozen.

Price stability. Canadian egg prices have remained relatively stable, increasing only by 4-7% over three years. U.S. egg prices, however, have risen dramatically — from $1.98 in 2022 to at least $4.95 in 2025 (up to $9.73 in some states).

No major Canadian egg export push to U.S. expected. While the price spread between U.S. and Canadian eggs has widened, it’s unlikely that Canada will significantly increase egg exports to the United States soon. Reasons:

Recent Trade Data

In 2023, the U.S. imported $44.1 million worth of eggs from Canada.
Canada was the leading importer of U.S. shell eggs during the first ten months of 2024, importing 50.2 million dozen eggs, representing 72.6% of U.S. shell egg export volume.
In October 2024, Canada imported 5.5 million dozen eggs from the U.S., up 37.5% from October 2023.
For the full year 2024, U.S. egg exports to Canada were valued at $234.61 million.

Factors limiting Canadian exports

Supply management system: As previously noted, Canada’s supply management system regulates egg production and prices, limiting the country’s ability to rapidly increase exports.
Domestic focus: The Canadian egg industry is primarily focused on meeting domestic demand rather than export markets.
Trade agreements: While USMCA allows for some increased market access, it still maintains restrictions on Canadian egg exports to the United States.

— “Let’s be honest: There is no perfect substitute for eggs,” begins a New York Times article (link). It says one ingredient can’t replace everything an egg can do in a recipe, but says five easy replacements come close.

OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS

Monday, Feb. 24

President Donald Trump meets with French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House.
Food prices and antitrust law. Progressive Policy Institute briefing on “Keeping the Cost of Living Down,” focusing on food prices and antitrust laws.
Trump and Ukraine. Brookings Institution discussion on “Trump’s Return and the Fate of Ukraine.”
India outlook. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Rating India 2025: Key Opportunities and Risks.”
War in Ukraine. Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies discussion on “Three Years of War in Ukraine: Taking Stock.”
Transatlantic relations. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual SAIS Europe 70th anniversary keynote lecture on “Europe’s Challenges in a New Transatlantic Era.”
Russia/Ukraine war. Center for Strategic and International Studies (virtual discussion on “Russia’s War in Ukraine and the Prospects for Peace.”
U.S./Korea outlook. George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies Korea Policy Forum on “U.S. Trade Policy Shifts and the Future of U.S./ROK Economic Relations.”

Tuesday, Feb. 25

Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks on Financial Stability in Connecticut. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.
Nomination hearing: Defense. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Stephen Feinberg to be deputy Defense secretary.
Nomination hearing: Homeland Security, OMB. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on the nominations of Troy Edgar to be deputy Homeland Security secretary; and Dan Bishop to be deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget.
Economic outlook. Economic Club of Washington, D.C. discussion with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan on “the current state of the economy, markets, the health of the U.S. consumer, and the global economic outlook for 2025.”
Energy policy issues. Politico Playbook hosts a breakfast briefing on “The First 100 Days: Energy,” with members of Congress, Trump administration representatives, and officials from the Energy Department and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
Global export controls. American Conference Institute, the Canadian Institute, and C5 hold a forum on “Global Export Controls.” Runs through Wednesday.
German elections. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Debriefing Germany’s Federal Elections 2025.”
Congress and China. Brookings Institution discussion on “How Will Congress Approach U.S./-China Relations?”
China and Ukraine war. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion on “China and Ukraine,” focusing on “China’s position on, and role in, the Russia/Ukraine conflict.”
SEC meeting. Securities and Exchange Commission virtual meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee for matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.
Countering China. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “Examining Policies to Counter China.”
Pipeline safety. House Transportation and Infrastructure Railroads, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee hearing on “Promoting and Improving Safety and Efficient Pipeline Infrastructure.”
LNG and international security. American Security Project virtual discussion on “Leverage or Liability: The Intersections of U.S. LNG (liquefied natural gas) and International Security.”
Global threats. House Oversight and Government Reform Military and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee hearing on “Emerging Global Threats: Putting America’s National Security First.”
Trade enforcement. House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee hearing on “American Trade Enforcement Priorities.”
Russia’s war in Ukraine. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion “Russia’s War on Ukraine Three Years On.”
GAO high risk list. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing on the “The Government Accountability Office’s 2025 High-Risk List.”
Budget reconciliation. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget virtual discussion on “Reconciliation 101: The Budget Resolution and What Comes Next.”
DOJ weaponization. House Judiciary Oversight Subcommittee hearing on “Entering the Golden Age: Ending the Weaponization of the Justice Department.”
Eliminating CFPB. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) forum “to investigate the Trump-Musk attack on American consumers and efforts to eliminate the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).”
U.S./EU relations. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion EU-US bilateral relations.

Wednesday, Feb. 26

Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.
U.S. agricultural economy. Senate Ag Committee hearing on “Perspectives from the Field: Farmer and Rancher Views on the Agricultural Economy, Part 2.”
U.S. foreign aid. House Oversight and Government Reform Delivering on Government Efficiency Subcommittee hearing on “America Last: How Foreign Aid Undermined US Interests Around the World.”
Biden energy, environment spending. House Energy and Commerce Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing on “Examining the Biden Administration’s Energy and Environment Spending Push.”
Endangered Species Act. House Natural Resources Water, Wildlife and Fisheries Subcommittee hearing on “Evaluating the Implementation of the Marine Mammal Protection Act and the Endangered Species Act.”
U.S. energy reliability. House Oversight and Government Reform Economic Growth, Energy Policy, and Regulatory Affairs Subcommittee hearing on “Leading the Charge: Opportunities to Strengthen America’s Energy Reliability.”
U.S. energy future. American Council on Renewable Energy 2025 Forum on “Charting America’s Energy Future.” Runs through Thursday.
Energy outlook. Axios discussion on “Powering the Electric Future.”
Global financial risk. Peterson Institute for International Economics (virtual discussion on “The Trump Administration’s Policies and Global Financial Risk.”
Immigration issues. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Immigration Policy Solutions to Critical Worker Shortages.”
Small businesses and technology. House Small Business Committee hearing on “Fostering American Innovation: Insights into SBIR (Small Business Innovation Research) and STTR (Small Business Technology Transfer) Programs.”
War impacts on Ukraine citizens. Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion on “Ukrainian Society Under Occupation: Hardship, Civic Resilience, and Perception.”
Infrastructure law implementation. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on “Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act Implementation and Case Studies.”
Pharmaceutical costs. House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee hearing on “An Examination of How Reining in PBMs (Pharmacy Benefit Managers) Will Drive Competition and Lower Costs for Patients.”
Public and private financial markets. House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee hearing on “The Future of American Capital: Strengthening Public and Private Markets by Increasing Investor Access and Facilitating Capital Formation.”
U.S. workforce. House Education and Workforce Committee hearing on “Unleashing America’s Workforce and Strengthening Our Economy.”
Global freedoms report. Freedom House virtual discussion on a report titled “Freedom in the World 2025: The Uphill Battle to Safeguard Rights,” focusing on the impact of ongoing armed conflicts and the global year of elections on fundamental freedoms.
Illicit drug traffic. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on “Interdicting Illicit Drug Trafficking: A View from the Front Lines.”
What’s next for DOJ. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on “DOJ in Transition: What May Be Coming Next?”
Clean manufacturing. Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) holds a “Congressional Climate Camp” briefing on “Clean Manufacturing in America.”
Small business loan program. Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee hearing on “Hearing from Lenders: Managing Risk for the Long-Term in the 7(a) Loan Program.”
Digital assets. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Digital Assets Subcommittee hearing on “Exploring Bipartisan Legislative Frameworks for Digital Assets.”
Opioid epidemic. Senate Special Aging Committee hearing on “Combating the Opioid Epidemic.”
Next on AI. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “What’s Next in the AI Revolution?”

Thursday, Feb. 27

Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks on Novel Activity Supervision in Washington, DC; Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on Community Banking in Kansas. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker scheduled to speak.
USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. USDA 101^st Agricultural Outlook Forum including release of trade figures and commodity forecasts. Link to forum program. USDA Commodity Outlooks for 2025-26 will also be issued.
Nomination vote: Labor. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee markup to vote on the nomination of Lori Chavez-DeRemer to be Labor secretary.
Nomination vote: OMB, Homeland Security. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee markup to vote on the nominations of Troy Edgar to be deputy Homeland Security secretary; and Dan Bishop to be deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget.
Nomination vote: DOJ. Senate Judiciary Committee markup and vote on the nominations of nominations of Todd Blanche to be deputy attorney general; and Abigail Slater to be an assistant attorney general.
Nomination vote: Transportation. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee markup to vote on the nomination of Steven Bradbury to be deputy Transportation secretary; and routine lists in the Coast Guard.
Nomination hearing: Labor. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on the nomination of Keith Sonderling to be deputy Labor secretary.
Nomination hearing: CEA, Commerce, CFPB. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the nominations of Stephen Miran to be chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers; Jeffrey Kessler to be Commerce undersecretary for industry and security; William Pulte to be director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency; and Jonathan McKernan to be director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Fair and reciprocal trade. Washington International Trade Association virtual discussion on “Unpacking What’s Fair and Reciprocal.”
Cargo threat. Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Surface Transportation, Maritime, Freight, and Ports Subcommittee hearing on “Grand Theft Cargo: Examining the Growing Threat to the US Supply Chain.”
German elections. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion on “The German Elections and the Future of Europe.”
U.S. economic outlook. The National Economists Club luncheon discussion on “U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook.”
Federal health spending. Cato Institute discussion on “Federal Health Spending.”
Critical minerals. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on a new report, “Critical Minerals and the Future of the US Economy.”
AI at work. Axios discussion on “Employing AI at Work.”
Cryptocurrencies and crime. Wilson Center briefing on a new report, “Behind the Headlines: Debunking Misconceptions of Cryptocurrency and Crime.”
Transatlantic trade turmoil preview. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Previewing Transatlantic Trade Turmoil.”

Friday, Feb. 28

USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. USDA will hold the 101^st Agricultural Outlook Forum including release of trade figures and commodity forecasts. Link to forum program.
US-Canada minerals cooperation. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual discussion on “US-Canada Mineral Cooperation for a Competitive Domestic Automotive Industry.”
Russia/Ukraine conflicts. The Atlantic Council holds a book discussion on “No Country for Love,” focusing on “Ukraine’s historical struggle against authoritarianism amid Russia’s continued aggression.”
Semiconductor leadership. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a discussion on a new report, “The United States Cannot Take Semiconductor Design Leadership for Granted.”

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS

Several Federal Reserve speakers are on tap this week while traders and analysts will monitor several economic reports in assessing the U.S. economy.

Monday, Feb. 24

Tuesday, Feb. 25

Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks on Financial Stability in Connecticut. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI | FHFA House Price Index | Richmond Fed Manufacturing | Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, Feb. 26

Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.
New Home Sales

Thursday, Feb. 27

Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks on Novel Activity Supervision in Washington, DC; Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on Community Banking in Kansas. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker scheduled to speak.
Jobless Claims | Durable Goods Orders | GDP | Pending Home Sales Index | KC Fed Manufacturing
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply

Friday, Feb. 28
· Personal Income & Outlays | International Trade in Goods | Wholesale Inventories | Chicago PMI

KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS

Ag focus: USDA food price update, agricultural trade and Ag Outlook Forum.

Energy focus: International Energy Week will take place in London. BP will reveal its strategy update at a capital markets day.

Monday, Feb. 24

Ag reports and events:

JRC MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
Palm & Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference, Kuala Lumpur, day 1
Export Inspections
Chickens and Eggs