House, Senate to Exit Until Mid-November After Clearing Stopgap Spending Measure

Trump and Deere | Canada grain terminal workers strike | OECD forecasts | Chinese yuan

News Markets Policy updates
Farm Journal
(Farm Journal)

News/Markets/Policy Updates: Sept. 25, 2024


— The House this evening will vote on a three-month continuing resolution that will keep federal agencies open through Dec. 20. The vote will be held under suspension, meaning a two-thirds majority is needed to pass. It will pass. Senate leaders locked in a time agreement that gives the chamber two hours to consider the CR once it formally receives the bill from the House.

Of note: Hurricane Helene is another factor which has lawmakers itching to leave Washington, particularly those from Florida and Southeast states which are expected to see impacts from the storm (details below). The House will be gone after today (the Senate a bit later) until mid-November (either Nov. 11 or Nov. 18).

— USDA announces dates for 2025 Ag Outlook Forum. USDA said the 2025 Agricultural Outlook Forum will be held February 27-28, 2025. The event will take place at the Crystal Gateway Marriott in Arlington, Va.

— Joe Manchin refuses to endorse Kamala Harris after filibuster remarks. Sen. Joe Manchin, now an independent from West Virginia, declined to endorse Kamala Harris for president after she reiterated support for eliminating the filibuster to pass abortion-rights legislation. Manchin criticized the move, calling the filibuster a key element of democracy that promotes bipartisan cooperation.

— Kamala Harris to contrast economic vision with Trump in key address on middle-class growth. Vice President Kamala Harris is set to deliver a major speech at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh, outlining her economic philosophy rooted in her middle-class upbringing. She plans to contrast her pragmatic approach with Donald Trump’s, emphasizing support for domestic manufacturing through targeted tax incentives and proposing federal initiatives for universal childcare and paid family leave. Harris’ address aims to win over voters in key battleground states by showcasing what she calls her practical policies and shared values with working-class Americans.

— Senate investigation reveals secret service failures in near assassination of Trump. Senate investigators found a series of Secret Service failures, including radio issues and missed opportunities, that contributed to the near assassination of Donald Trump at a July rally. In a separate incident, a gunman arrested at Trump’s Florida golf course (Ryan Routh) has been charged with attempted assassination. Routh’s case was assigned to Aileen Cannon, a federal judge who dismissed a case against Trump over his handling of classified documents.

Meanwhile, the Senate unanimously passed a bill on Tuesday guaranteeing that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris receive the same level of Secret Service protection as a sitting president.

— A Wall Street Journal commentary (link) presents a critical analysis of Donald Trump’s recent threat to impose tariffs on Deere & Co. for moving some production to Mexico. The article argues that this approach may inadvertently benefit Kamala Harris’ image as a more business-friendly alternative.

Trump recently announced a potential 200% tariff on Deere & Co. products if the company proceeds with its plan to move some manufacturing from Iowa to Mexico. This threat comes in response to Deere’s decision to shift production of compact construction equipment and lay off over 2,000 workers.

The commentary explains that Deere’s decision is driven by several factors:
• Lower commodity costs
• Decreased order volumes
• A softening construction market
• The need to remain globally competitive

Deere’s move follows a costly labor agreement with the United Auto Workers union in 2021, which included significant wage increases and benefits.

The article criticizes Trump’s approach, arguing that he fails to understand the global nature of manufacturing competition:
• U.S. manufacturers compete in global markets
• Many customers are not in the U.S. and don’t prioritize “made in America” products
• Chinese equipment makers are increasingly competitive in these markets
• The commentary also notes that other U.S. manufacturers, such as Caterpillar, CNH, and Bobcat, are expanding operations in Mexico and Latin America.

The WSJ argues that Trump’s tariff threats could have several negative consequences:
• Violation of the USMCA trade agreement
• Increased prices for U.S. consumers
• Portrayal of Kamala Harris as more business-friendly

The article contrasts Trump’s self-image as a dealmaker with the economic realities facing businesses:
• Trump promises to personally recruit foreign companies to the U.S.
• Businesses make decisions based on costs and expected return on capital

The commentary suggests that Trump should focus on highlighting the negative impacts of Biden/Harris policies on U.S. manufacturers, such as regulatory burdens and proposed tax increases.

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. China stock markets rallied after further easing of China’s monetary policy by its central bank. U.S. Dow opened around 70 points higher but is currently slightly lower. In Asia, Japan -0.2%. Hong Kong +0.7%. China +1.2%. India +0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.4%.

U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices again registered gains, putting the Dow and S&P 500 at new record closes for a second session this week. The Dow rose 83.57 points, 0.20%, at 42,208.22. The Nasdaq gained 100.25 points, 0.56%, at 18,074.52. The S&P 500 was up 14.36 points, 0.25%, at 5,732.93.

— The Justice Dept. sued Visa, alleging that the firm, which processes over 60% of the country’s debit transactions on its payments network, is an illegal monopoly. It is the Biden administration’s first major financial industry antitrust lawsuit. The lawsuit in Manhattan federal court said Visa curbed competition through threats to merchants of higher fees and paying off potential rivals.

— Crude oil prices climbed about 2% on Tuesday, reaching a three-week high as China’s announcement of its largest monetary stimulus since the pandemic and growing conflict in the Middle East fueled concerns over oil supply disruptions. Brent crude rose $1.27, 1.7%, to settle at $75.17 a barrel, the highest close since Sept. 2, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased $1.19, 1.7%, to close at $71.56.

— Ag markets today: Selling pressure built in the grain markets overnight, with soybeans leading losses early this morning. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 2 cents lower, soybeans were 8 to 9 cents lower, winter wheat markets were 1 to 3 cents lower and spring wheat was 5 to 6 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index was modestly firmer, and front-month crude oil futures were about 90 cents lower.

Packers planning small cattle slaughter. With margins back in the red, packers have slowed throughput and are expected to slaughter less than 600,000 head of cattle this week, which would be the smallest for the week since 2015. Reduced kills have helped Choice beef stabilize after briefly dipping below $300.00 last week, though that may not be enough to get packers to actively bid for cattle as their accumulated inventory is likely sufficient given the reduced slaughter runs.

Cash hog fundamentals inch lower. The CME lean hog index is down 8 cents to $84.21 as of Sept. 23, marking a new low on the seasonal decline. The pork cutout slipped 18 cents to $93.96 on Tuesday as all cuts except loins and hams weakened, though that’s still $1.05 above the mid-September low.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

Corn: December corn futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.11 3/4, nearer the session low after hitting a two-month high early on.
Soy complex: November soybeans rose 3 cents to $10.42 1/4, while December soymeal fell $2.80 to $325.90, each forging low-range closes. December soyoil rallied 150 points to 43.34 cents, closing above the 100-day moving average and at a two-month high.
Wheat: December SRW futures sunk 4 1/2 cents to $5.78 and closed near session lows. December HRW futures dropped 6 1/4 cents to $5.71. December HRS futures slipped 7 1/4 cents to $6.11 3/4.
Cotton: December cotton rose 65 cents to 74.09 cents, closing nearer the session high.
Cattle: December live cattle futures climbed 57.5 cents to $184.40, though nearby October futures sunk a nickel to $183.20. October feeder cattle futures climbed $1.325 to $245.80 and closed near session highs.
Hogs: December lean hogs rose 10 cents to $74.975 though settled nearer the session low. Prices hit a 3.5-month high early during the trading session.

— OECD revised its global economic growth forecast for 2024 upward, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the world economy. Key points:

Revised growth forecast. The OECD now projects global GDP growth of 3.2% for 2024, up from its previous forecast of 3.1% in May. This slight increase suggests the organization sees the global economy stabilizing and potentially improving compared to earlier expectations.

Several factors are contributing to this more positive outlook:
• Declining inflation: Inflation is falling faster than initially projected in many countries.
• Improving real incomes: As inflation moderates, real incomes have begun to rise in many OECD countries.
• Resilient global activity: Despite tighter monetary conditions, global economic activity has proven relatively robust.
• Positive trade growth: Trade growth has turned positive, supporting economic expansion.
• Strong labor markets: Unemployment remains at or close to record lows in many countries.

Regional variations. The outlook varies across different regions and economies:
• United States: Expected to see strong growth of 2.6% in 2024, before slowing to 1.8% in 2025.
• Euro area: Projected to grow by 0.7% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected.
• United Kingdom: Growth forecast upgraded to 1.1% for 2024, up from 0.4% predicted in May.
• China: Expected to slow moderately, with growth of 4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.

Despite the improved outlook, several challenges remain:
• Inflation concerns: The UK is expected to have the highest inflation among G7 countries in 2024 and 2025.
• Geopolitical tensions: High geopolitical tensions remain a significant near-term risk to activity and inflation.
• Fiscal challenges: Governments face rising fiscal challenges given high debt levels and additional spending pressures.

Market impact: Bond yields edged higher overnight in response to the more optimistic growth outlook.

— Halloween candy sales expected to increase 3% to 5% in 2024, confectioners report. The National Confectioners Association anticipates a 3% to 5% rise in Halloween sales this year, following $6.4 billion in confectionery sales in 2023. A survey revealed 97% of Americans welcoming trick-or-treaters will hand out candy, with two-thirds offering two or three pieces per visitor. NCA President John Downs highlighted Halloween’s growing retail demand, starting earlier and extending beyond Oct. 31.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker, with the euro and yen both firmer against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was higher, trading around 3.76%, with a higher tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were lower ahead of U.S. gov’t inventory data due later this morning, with U.S. crude around $70.40 per barrel and Brent around $73.40 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were mixed, with gold firmer around $2,682 per troy ounce and silver weaker around $32.24 per troy ounce.

— Chinese yuan hits strongest level against the dollar in 16 months, driven by a combination of factors including China’s economic stimulus measures and changes in U.S. monetary policy. The offshore Chinese yuan briefly strengthened to 6.9946 per dollar, marking its strongest level since May 2023. This means that one U.S. dollar could buy fewer Chinese yuan, indicating a stronger Chinese currency. The onshore yuan also traded at 7.0319 against the U.S. dollar, its strongest position since last May. Analysts are uncertain if these gains will hold as the PBOC has indicated it will prevent one-sided market expectations and guard against the risk of the yuan overshooting. There may be limited room for further yuan appreciation due to weak domestic demand and business confidence. Also, the PBOC may not want rapid yuan appreciation that could hurt exports, which are currently a bright spot for China’s economy.

— OPEC forecasts rising oil demand through 2050, citing slower EV adoption. OPEC projects global oil demand will continue to grow into 2050, reaching 120.1 million barrels per day, up from 102.2 million last year, as the transition to EVs and greener fuels slows. The group anticipates oil will maintain nearly 30% of the energy mix and stated, “There is no peak oil demand on the horizon.” OPEC emphasized that new energy sources can only be phased in at scale when fully ready.

— Strike looms at East and Gulf Coast ports as labor contract expiration approaches. The labor contract for 45,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) nears expiration on Sept. 30, with no deal in sight. The Biden administration is monitoring the situation but has not directly intervened. Shipping giant Maersk has announced surcharges on cargo starting Oct. 21 due to potential disruptions. Other carriers like CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC have also announced surcharges ranging from $800 to $1,500 per container. Some shippers have begun diverting cargo to West Coast ports as a precautionary measure. Both the union and employers have yet to request involvement from Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su.

A strike could significantly disrupt U.S. supply chains, as the affected ports handle about 43% of U.S. imports. Bulk grain export facilities typically operate with different labor arrangements, so impacts should be limited. However, the strike would affect ag container shipments and indirectly impact grain producers through disruptions to meat exports. East and Gulf Coast ports accounted for 45% of U.S. waterborne pork exports and 30% of waterborne beef exports through July.

Estimates suggest that even a one-week strike could take until mid-November to recover, while a two-week strike might extend port backlogs into 2025.

The House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure has written a letter to President Biden, urging the administration to aid in negotiations and find a resolution to the contract disputes. They’ve asked the president to “utilize every authority at its disposal” to ensure the continued flow of goods.

— Vancouver grain terminal workers strike, disrupting Canada’s grain exports. On Tuesday (Sept. 24), grain terminal workers in Metro Vancouver began a strike, significantly impacting Canada’s grain export operations. This labor action follows months of unsuccessful negotiations between the Grain Workers Union (GWU) Local 333 and the Vancouver Terminal Elevator Association (VTEA). Picket lines have been established at the affected grain terminals, and the strike is ongoing. The union has stated that it is waiting for the employer to present a new proposal for a contract, emphasizing that it will not “bargain against itself.”

Background. The GWU Local 333 and VTEA have been in negotiations for a new labor agreement since November 2023. After failing to reach an agreement, the union issued a 72-hour strike notice on Sept. 21, 2024.

Affected terminals: Six main grain terminals in Metro Vancouver are impacted, including:
• Viterra’s Cascadia and Pacific Terminals
• Richardson International Terminal
• Cargill Limited Terminal
• G3 Terminal Vancouver
• Alliance Grain Terminal

Number of workers: Over 600 workers represented by the Grain Workers Union are participating in the strike.

Impact on grain exports. The strike is expected to have significant consequences for Canada’s grain export industry as Canada is the third-largest exporter of wheat globally:
• Approximately 52% of all Canadian-grown grain passes through these Metro Vancouver terminals.
• The work stoppage could halt nearly 100,000 metric tonnes of commodities arriving daily.
• Potential daily losses in exports are estimated at $35 million.
• In 2023, the Port of Vancouver handled 14.7 million tonnes of wheat exports to 38 different countries, along with 7 million tonnes of canola and 4 million tonnes of specialty crops.

Reactions and concerns:
• Grain Growers of Canada: The organization expressed deep concern about the strike’s impact on farmers, especially those in the Prairies who rely heavily on the Port of Vancouver for exports.
• Canadian gov’t: Grain farmers are urging the federal Labour Minister, Steven MacKinnon, to intervene and use all available tools to prevent a prolonged work stoppage. Federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon has addressed the dispute, requesting both parties to resume negotiations alongside federal mediators. The government is under pressure to intervene, with some experts suggesting that the food supply chain should be considered an essential service in Canada.
• International trade: There are worries that a prolonged strike could damage Canada’s international trading reputation and lead to the loss of key global markets and customers.

Perspective: Realagriculture.com (link) notes that in July 2023, around 7,400 cargo workers at the Port of Vancouver who are also members of the ILWU went on strike for 13 days, disrupting nearly $10 billion in trade, according to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade. This latest port worker strike comes less than a month after both of Canada’s main railways — Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railway (CPKC) — were shut down due to a dual labor stoppage that was ended when the federal government imposed final and binding arbitration.

— Argentine grain, soy exports could hit four-year high. Argentina’s grain and soybean production could reach 143 MMT in the current growing season under normal weather conditions, according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. If conditions are drier, production could fall to 128.8 MMT. Given normal weather, the exchange says grain and soy exports in 2024-25 could total 101.5 MMT, the highest since 2020-21. It said soil moisture conditions are adequate in Argentina’s agricultural core, but western and northern areas are in urgent need of rainfall.

— USDA daily export sale:
• 180,000 MT corn for deliver to Mexico, 2024-2025 marketing year.

— Ag trade: Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of corn expected to be sourced from Brazil. Thailand bought 65,000 MT of feed wheat expected to be sourced from the Black Sea region or Australia. Indonesia purchased about 450,000 MT of rice from Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand. Algeria tendered to buy up to 240,000 MT of corn from Brazil or Argentina. Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.

— Helene is on track to make landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast — possibly in the Big Bend region — late Thursday and threatens to become the strongest storm to hit the US in over a year. It would be the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the US this year and the fifth to slam Florida since 2022. A flood watch has been issued for more than 20 million people from Florida through the southern Appalachians. The Big Bend area faces the most serious storm surge: up to 15 feet is possible.

The storm will remain intense as it passes through northern Florida and Georgia, with serious agricultural damage expected. World Weather Inc. says, “Cotton in southwest Georgia is expected to be severely damaged with some complete losses possible. Soybeans and peanuts may also be impacted with crops in low-lying areas most impacted.” Remnant rain from Helene is expected to reach into parts of the Ohio River Basin as it merges with an upper-level low pressure center over the Delta and Tennessee River Basin area.

— NWS outlook: Helene is forecast to rapidly intensify to a major hurricane in the Gulf and bring life-threatening impacts to Florida and the Southeast late today through Friday... ...A rare High Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the southern Appalachians Thursday-Thursday night where considerable flash/urban/river flooding and landslides are possible.

NWS_092524.png
NWS outlook
(NWS)

CONGRESS

— Speaker Mike Johnson vows no omnibus spending bill before Christmas to avoid shutdown. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is taking a firm stance on government spending as he navigates the challenges of avoiding a government shutdown. He has made a significant promise to his colleagues and the public: there will be no omnibus spending bill before Christmas.

Johnson is defending his plan for a bipartisan, clean three-month Continuing Resolution (CR), which sets the stage for a crucial spending debate during the lame-duck session. The House GOP leadership intends to bring this bill to the floor today, using a suspension of the rules procedure. This approach will require substantial support from Democratic representatives to pass. The Senate has set in place provisions to take up the measure via unanimous consent immediately upon it being moved by the House.

Johnson emphasized several key points during a Republican conference meeting and subsequent press conference:
• He argued that shutting down the federal government 39 days before the election would be “political malpractice.”
• He presented polling data to demonstrate that a shutdown is unpopular among key voters.
• He firmly stated that members would not vote on a massive, year-end omnibus bill right before Christmas.

Johnson’s strategy appears to be focused on preserving his political future, according to Punchbowl News. If Republicans maintain their majority, he aims to avoid an end-of-year omnibus, which could coincide with his efforts to secure votes to remain speaker. In the event of a Trump victory in the presidential election, Republicans may want to delay government funding deadlines to allow Trump to influence spending decisions. Johnson has made similar promises to the House Freedom Caucus, a group that has been critical of his CR plan and has often challenged leadership on spending issues.

Despite Johnson’s promises, several challenges remain:
• The 2024 legislative calendar is limited, with only a few weeks remaining.
• The House has only passed five of its spending bills, while the Senate hasn’t passed any.
• There’s a high likelihood that some bills will need to be combined unless the funding deadline is extended again.
• If House Republicans lose their majority, the probability of an omnibus bill being considered increases significantly.

When questioned by Punchbowl News about the potential impact of this CR move on his ability to remain speaker, Johnson responded: “I’m not [worried]. We have to make tough decisions in leadership. This is the last available option to us. None of us like it. But we can’t shut the government down... The reason we are in the situation is because of Chuck Schumer. They did not put one appropriations bill on the floor in the Senate.”

Of note: House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) suggested that Johnson’s political future may be more dependent on election results than the CR debate.

Meanwhile, the House will exit tonight for six weeks of campaigning, assuming they clear the CR as expected.

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

— Israel intercepts Hezbollah ballistic missile near Tel Aviv, marking new escalation. Israel’s military intercepted a ballistic missile launched by Hezbollah near Tel Aviv, the first known attack of its kind by the militant group. Hezbollah claimed it targeted the Mossad headquarters in support of Palestinians in Gaza and in defense of Lebanon. No damage or injuries were reported after the missile interception, which comes amid heightened tensions following the war between Israel and Hamas. Hezbollah has previously launched hundreds of rockets and drones from Lebanon targeting northern Israel.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— U.S. to announce billions in Ukraine aid amid congressional resistance. The U.S. plans to commit billions in aid to Ukraine in the coming days, ahead of the funding’s expiration after Congress omitted it from the stopgap bill to keep the government open. Internal GOP divisions in the House prevented its inclusion. The Senate could address the measure as early as Thursday, coinciding with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S. Capitol. Zelenskyy is also set to address the UN General Assembly today in New York.

— Russia has established a weapons program China to develop and produce long-range attack drones for use in the war against Ukraine, according to two sources from a European intelligence agency and documents reviewed by Reuters. Link for details.

CHINA UPDATE

— China conducts first ICBM test in 44 years, launching missile into Pacific Ocean. China’s People’s Liberation Army conducted its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test in 44 years, launching a DF-41 ICBM into the Pacific Ocean. The missile, capable of reaching the U.S. mainland with a range of up to 15,000 km (9,321 miles), carried a simulated warhead and landed in a designated area. This marks a major milestone in China’s missile development, with the PLA’s Rocket Force testing its strategic deterrence capabilities. The test comes amid rising missile activities in the Asia-Pacific, heightening regional tensions.

— China’s commerce ministry launches first unreliable entity probe into top U.S. clothing company’s Xinjiang cotton boycott. Beijing launched an investigation into PVH Group, the U.S. parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, under its Unreliable Entity List (UEL) after PVH removed Xinjiang cotton from its supply chain to comply with the U.S. Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act. This marks a significant escalation in trade tensions between China and the West, as Beijing signals its willingness to penalize companies adhering to U.S. sanctions. In 2021 America banned the import of Xinjiang cotton because of forced-labor concerns. European firms may face higher risks as they prepare to comply with similar EU regulations on sustainability and forced labor.

Of note: A bipartisan group of U.S. legislators urges Canada and Mexico to use U.S. law as a model to keep out imports that can be traced to China’s Xinjiang region.

— China cuts one-year policy rate by most ever. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the rate on 300-billion-yuan ($42.66 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions by 30 basis points 2.00%, as signaled on Tuesday. The 30-basis-point cut was the biggest since the bank began using the monetary tool to guide market interest rates in 2016. This is part of China’s most comprehensive economic stimulus measures since 2015 to revive the economy and restore market confidence amid ongoing economic headwinds. PBOC also withdrew a net 291 billion yuan, the largest liquidity drainage since December 2021, as it shifts toward a short-term policy tool.

TRADE POLICY

— AMLO seizes U.S.-owned port in final days, escalating tensions with investors. Mexico’s outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador finalized the expropriation of a U.S.-owned Vulcan Materials port and quarry, declaring it a natural protected area. The move, days before he leaves office, has deepened U.S./Mexico tensions, with Vulcan warning of a “chilling effect” on future trade and investment.

Details: The Mexican government declared Vulcan’s land south of Cancun and Playa del Carmen a natural protected area. This designation prevents Vulcan from extracting limestone at a site it has been developing for decades. The expropriation affects both Vulcan’s land and its deepwater port facility at Punta Venado. AMLO had previously threatened expropriation and offered to purchase the property for about $385 million, which Vulcan rejected as undervaluing its assets.

Vulcan Materials has strongly condemned the expropriation, stating the action is “unlawful” and violates Mexico’s commitments under North American trade agreements. It will have a “chilling and long-term effect on U.S./Mexico trade and investment relations,” the company said, adding it plans to pursue “all available legal avenues” to contest the decree. Vulcan is seeking compensation of over $1.5 billion through arbitration at the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID).

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that such actions could negatively affect foreign direct investment in Mexico. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators proposed legislation to pressure AMLO to back down from the expropriation plan. The case raises concerns about Mexico’s commitment to protecting foreign investments and adhering to international trade agreements.

The incoming administration of President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, who takes office on Oct. 1, has not yet commented on the Vulcan issue.

— Mexico takes over avocado inspections for shipments to U.S., raising industry concerns. Mexico’s government announced it will now handle avocado inspections for shipments to the U.S., citing an agreement with USDA. This shift ends USDA oversight in Mexican orchards and packing facilities. The California Avocado Commission raised concerns over potential risks to the U.S. avocado industry, as the change could impact pest prevention measures. Previous U.S. inspections had been suspended due to threats and assaults on USDA inspectors in Mexico.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— CFTC finalizes guidance on carbon credits for climate-smart agriculture. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved final guidance for listing voluntary carbon credit (VCC) derivative contracts, a crucial step in promoting climate-smart agriculture efforts. This guidance aims to foster the development of carbon credit markets while ensuring transparency and market integrity. Link to pre-publication version of the rule.

Contract market requirements. The guidance sets clear expectations and requirements for designated contract markets (DCMs) trading or listing or trading derivatives tied to carbon credits. DCMs must comply with the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and relevant regulations, focusing on several core principles:
• Establishing and enforcing rules
• Listing contracts resistant to manipulation
• Preventing market manipulation and price distortion
• Adopting adequate position limits
• Enforcing disciplinary measures

Transparency and integrity. CFTC emphasizes the importance of promoting transparency, market integrity, and additionality in VCC markets. DCMs are required to implement strong governance frameworks for tracking credits and preventing issues like double counting.

Contract submission requirements. When submitting VCC derivative contracts for approval, DCMs must provide detailed explanations and analyses, demonstrating compliance with statutory and regulatory requirements.

Impact on climate-smart agriculture. The guidance supports efforts like USDA’s $3.1 billion Partnerships for Climate Smart Commodities (PCSC) program. This initiative aims to help farmers and ranchers implement emissions-reducing practices and generate additional revenue from carbon credits.

Climate-smart farming and carbon credit generation offer opportunities for:
• Food companies and agribusinesses to meet consumer demand for climate-friendly products
• Businesses to meet their greenhouse gas emission reduction goals
• Farmers and ranchers to adopt sustainable practices and access new income streams

Reaction. The guidance has been well-received by both agricultural interests and environmental advocates:
• The Food and Agriculture Climate Alliance (FACA) praised CFTC for driving integrity and confidence in the voluntary carbon marketplace.
• The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) welcomed the guidance, stating it lays important groundwork for protecting market participants and building a transparent, reliable marketplace.

Bottom line: This guidance marks a significant step in establishing rules for carbon credit markets, which are set to play a key role in agricultural climate efforts and the broader fight against climate change.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Colombia fully reopens to U.S. beef after lifting H5N1 ban. USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) said U.S. beef and beef products were no longer ineligible for export to Colombia as of Sept. 23. The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) confirmed that Colombia has lifted its ban on U.S. beef from states affected by H5N1 in dairy cows, restoring access to beef from 13 states. USMEF President Dan Halstrom expressed gratitude to USDA teams and Colombian importers, emphasizing the significant impact the ban had on trade, with exports dropping to less than $850,000 in July. Prior to the ban, U.S. beef exports to Colombia averaged $3 million per month.

— Grocery chains are bigger than ever. See who runs the stores near you. Link to an interactive item from the Washington Post and see which stores dominate in your area. A potential $24.6 billion merger between Kroger and Albertsons, the largest in U.S. grocery history, is under review by a federal judge. Regulators and critics argue that the deal could reduce competition, raise prices, and further consolidate control over the U.S. grocery market, where Walmart, Kroger, and Costco already dominate sales.

— USDA allocates $466.5 million for global food security and agricultural development. USDA announced $466.5 million to bolster global food security through two major international development programs. This announcement was made by USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack at the Clinton Global Initiative 2024 annual meeting in New York.

McGovern-Dole program. The McGovern-Dole International Food for Education and Child Nutrition Program will receive $248 million in fiscal year 2024 funds. This allocation will support projects in nine countries, focusing on:
• Providing critical school meals
• Boosting literacy and primary education
• Emphasizing education for girls

The program will benefit approximately 1.2 million children and their family members across more than 2,800 pre-primary and primary schools. The United States, through this program, maintains its position as the largest donor to global school feeding programs.

Countries benefiting: Angola, Bangladesh, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Guinea-Bissau, Laos, Malawi, and Rwanda

Commodity allocation: Over 37,000 metric tons of U.S. commodities

Food for Progress program. The Food for Progress program will receive $218.5 million to support seven countries in strengthening their agricultural systems. The program aims to:
• Adopt climate-smart technologies
• Increase productivity sustainably
• Expand international trade

This year’s funding will benefit nearly 200,000 farmers across the participating countries.

Countries benefiting: Benin, Cambodia, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, and Tunisia

Commodity allocation: 315,000 metric tons of U.S. commodities

Focus areas: Climate-smart agriculture, food security, sanitary and phytosanitary standards, access to capital, and trade facilitation

Program implementation. Both programs involve the purchase of U.S.-grown commodities by USDA, which are then provided to implementing organizations, including the United Nations World Food Program. The implementation methods differ slightly:
• Food for Progress: Partners sell commodities locally and use proceeds for local development projects.
• McGovern-Dole: Partners use commodities directly in school feeding programs

Additionally, $24 million of the McGovern-Dole allocation will support local and regional procurement of commodities to supplement the donated U.S. commodities, in line with the 2018 Farm Bill provisions.

Vilsack emphasized that these programs exemplify USDA’s multifaceted approach to addressing global hunger, poverty, and climate crisis effects. By partnering with both private and public sectors, USDA said it aims to provide direct food assistance while fostering sustainable agricultural growth and enhancing developing countries’ trade capabilities.

HEALTH UPDATE

— Bernie Sanders presses Novo Nordisk CEO on high U.S. prices for Ozempic and Wegovy. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) grilled Novo Nordisk’s CEO over the high prices of its diabetes and weight-loss drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, in the U.S., warning that 40,000 Americans could die annually if the medicines remain unaffordable. Sanders highlighted that the U.S. list price for a four-week supply of Ozempic is $969, compared to $155 in Canada and $59 in Germany, with similar disparities for Wegovy. This hearing is part of Sanders’ ongoing effort to address high drug prices in the US, which are often significantly higher than in other wealthy nations.

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

— EPA finalizes national standards to protect U.S. waterways from vessel pollutants. EPA today issued new national discharge standards to regulate pollutants and invasive species from 85,000 vessels in U.S. waters. The rules aim to protect waterways by addressing harmful discharges from large vessels, while reducing the spread of invasive species like zebra mussels. This new rule, known as the Vessel Incidental Discharge National Standards of Performance, aims to protect waterways from harmful pollutants and reduce the spread of invasive species.

The new standards apply primarily to:
• Non-recreational, non-Armed Forces vessels 79 feet or longer
• Ballast water from fishing vessels and non-recreational, non-Armed Forces vessels less than 79 feet long

Targeted pollutants and discharges. The rule addresses 20 types of discharges and their associated pollutants, including:
• Bacteria and pathogens
• Oil and grease
• Metals
• Invasive species

Implementation timeline
The standards will not be implemented for up to two years
The U.S. Coast Guard will develop and issue corresponding regulations during this period
Until then, vessels remain subject to existing discharge requirements

Great Lakes protection. The rule introduces a new federal requirement for future “Lakers” (large vessels operating in the Great Lakes) to operate ballast water management systems, helping to reduce the spread of invasive species in the Great Lakes.

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