House Republicans Reach Deal on Short-Term Funding but Senate Will Likely Reject

CR | Appropriations bills | Farm bill | UAW strike | FOMC decision | Ukraine

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September 17, 2023 08:29 PM

Washington Focus

Missing deadlines is nothing new for Congress, but some upcoming ones are more important than others, with the next two weeks providing a critical test for leadership.

— House Republicans proposed a short-term government funding deal amid likely Senate rejection. A group of six House Republicans, including members from various ideological factions, on Sunday unveiled a proposal (link) to temporarily fund the gov’t in a bid to prevent a shutdown at the end of the month. The plan calls for funding until Oct. 31, with a 1% cut to current fiscal levels, excluding the Defense Dept. and Veterans Affairs, while the rest of the government would see an immediate 8% cut until the end of October. The effort aims to garner support from hard-right lawmakers who have demanded substantial cuts in exchange for a short-term funding extension. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif) reportedly is supportive of the GOP proposal.

Additionally, the proposed continuing resolution (CR) includes a border security bill passed by House Republicans earlier this year, with the exception of a divisive E-Verify work requirement policy. Provisions related to the border will be added to the Homeland Security appropriations bill to exert pressure on the Senate during future negotiations on gov’t funding for the full fiscal year.

Of note: Absent from the proposal are President Biden’s requests for over $20 billion in aid for Ukraine and $16 billion in disaster relief. Senate leaders from both parties have indicated their intention to add funds for these issues to any short-term funding bill.

Background: Six House Republican members from two of the five ideological factions — Reps. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) and Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) from the pragmatic Main Street Caucus, and Freedom Caucus Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Chip Roy (R-Tex.) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) hashed out parameters of the accord.

Bottom line: It is uncertain whether it will gain enough support to pass in the House and survive an anticipated rejection in the Senate, potentially leading to a partial gov’t shutdown with limited time to spare. The proposal was not negotiated by Republican leadership but rather by a group of six House Republican members from different ideological factions. The GOP conference began the year with only five votes to spare, but is now down to four after the retirement of Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) last week.

Over the next two weeks, McCarthy must navigate a path to reach an agreement on a short-term funding bill to avert a partial federal shutdown on Oct. 1. Of note: McCarthy last week told lawmakers to go home for the weekend and be prepared to stay in session until they get the job done.

Simultaneously, he must address varying demands from fellow Republicans, including sharp cuts to federal spending, ending aid for Ukraine, and enhancing border security as conditions for any deal.

Many lawmakers are anticipating at least a brief gov’t shutdown, which would impact hundreds of thousands of federal workers and cause all sorts of delays, including an October Crop Production report from USDA. McCarthy said a gov’t shutdown “would only give strength to the Democrats. It would give the power to Biden.”

McCarthy said Sunday that the Defense Department appropriations bill that was paused last week before it even made it to the floor for debate will come up for a vote this week “win or lose.” “We will do that this week,” McCarthy said on Fox News, adding “unfortunately I had a handful of members last week that literally stopped the Department of Defense appropriations coming forward,” referring to members of his right flank who have stymied two appropriations bills thus far. “I gave them an opportunity this weekend to try to work through this, and we’ll bring it to the floor win or lose,” McCarthy told Maria Bartiromo. “We’ll bring it to the floor, win or lose, and show the American public who’s for the Department of Defense, who’s for the military, who’s for giving them a pay raise,” McCarthy said. He added that “anytime a Republican wants to hold back and stop the floor from working when Republicans have the majority, that puts us in a weaker position to win in the end of the day.”

Meanwhile, McCarthy must prepare for even more challenging negotiations with the Democratic-controlled Senate chamber on full-year spending, all while dealing with Democratic discontent over his decision to launch an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, as Democrats may be less inclined to assist him considering their disagreements. The impeachment inquiry, if it gets out of hand, could negatively impact the 18 House Republicans who sit in districts Biden won in 2020.

McCarthy can afford to lose only four votes to pass legislation, leaving his majority with minimal room for error.

But there are some glimmers of compromise. Some Republican factions are working on a plan that combines a short-term continuing resolution (CR) with measures aimed at enhancing border security. McCarthy is supportive of these talks, and lawmakers are working on that possibility.

— UAW strike update. On Friday, nearly 13,000 members of the United Auto Workers (UAW) initiated strikes at three factories responsible for manufacturing some of Detroit’s most popular vehicles. This labor action could escalate into a protracted strike, potentially impacting the U.S. economy and influencing the 2024 presidential election.

The strike targets plants in Ohio, Michigan, and Missouri and represents a significant departure from previous UAW strikes, as all three major automakers — General Motors, Ford Motor, and Stellantis (owner of Chrysler, Jeep, and Ram) — are simultaneously affected. The primary demands behind the strike include pay raises of up to 40%, among other benefits.

UAW President Shawn Fain said he’s unmoved by an offer of a 21% pay raise from Stellantis NV. “It’s definitely a no-go,” Fain said Sunday on CBS’s Face the Nation. “We’ve made that very clear.”

The strike could lead to reduced availability of new vehicles, potentially contributing to inflationary pressures and necessitating sustained higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve. While the primary dispute revolves around autoworkers and automakers, its consequences may extend further, affecting the broader U.S. economy.

President Joe Biden expressed support for the union’s demands, emphasizing that auto companies have enjoyed record profits largely due to the skill and sacrifices of UAW workers. “Over generations, autoworkers sacrificed so much to keep the industry alive and strong, especially the economic crisis and the pandemic,” Biden said. “Workers deserve a fair share of the benefits they helped create.” However, auto executives argue that the proposed pay raises would hinder their ability to invest in electric vehicles and remain competitive in the industry’s transition from gasoline-powered to electric vehicles. Biden said at the White House Friday that he is sending acting Labor Secretary Julie Su and White House adviser Gene Sperling to help the parties reach agreement, and noted the companies’ offers should ensure that “record corporate profits mean record contracts.”

Former President Donald Trump in an interview aired Sunday with NBC’s Meet the Press, said: “The autoworkers will not have any jobs… because all of these cars are going to be made in China. The autoworkers are being sold down the river by their leadership, and their leadership should endorse Trump.”

— President Biden to address U.N. General Assembly, expected meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. President Joe Biden on Tuesday in New York City will deliver a speech at the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly. The event will see the gathering of world leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is also scheduled to address the assembly. Biden will meet with Zelenskyy at the White House Thursday, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said. Additionally, during his visit to Washington, Zelenskyy is expected to pay a visit to the U.S. Capitol. However, Zelenskyy is not slated to address a joint session of Congress; instead, he is anticipated to hold individual meetings with lawmakers and members of congressional leadership.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is traveling to New York to attend the U.N. General Assembly amid heightened tensions with Washington over Syria and Russia. Erdogan on Sunday was expected to host billionaire Elon Musk to discuss cooperation on a range of subjects from space technology to electric-vehicle batteries.

Of note: The 78th U.N. General Assembly starts in New York with the theme of “rebuilding trust and reigniting global solidarity.” The body will make the case for globalization with a focus on its sustainable development goals.

— Geopolitics: U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed a possible meeting of their leaders and communication channels between the world’s biggest economies during two days of talks that ended Sunday. The meetings aimed to make sure that Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden were positioned to meet at the APEC summit in San Francisco in November. Biden hasn’t spoken to Xi since last year’s Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia.

Wang reiterated that China considers Taiwan a red line in the relationship, according to a statement.

White House comments: “This meeting was part of ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage the relationship,” the White House said in a statement. “The United States noted the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”

— Regarding Ukraine grain exports, Ukraine is challenging Russia’s Black Sea port blockade, sending ships for grain amid tensions. In defiance of Russia’s de facto blockade of its Black Sea ports, Ukraine has dispatched empty ships to collect grain shipments for the first time in almost two months, Bloomberg reports (link). Two vessels, flying the flags of Palau and crewed by individuals from Turkey, Azerbaijan, Egypt, and Ukraine, have confirmed their readiness to use the route to the port of Chornomorsk to load approximately 20,000 tons of wheat destined for Africa and Asia.

This move comes after Russia’s withdrawal from a U.N. and Turkey-brokered Black Sea grain deal in July, which compelled Ukraine to adopt more complex and costly shipping routes. Although grain has been rerouted via rail, river, and road options, Russia has repeatedly targeted key river ports on the Danube with drone attacks. However, this passage to Ukraine carries significant risks, as Russia has stated it would view ships bound for Ukrainian ports as potential carriers of weapons, even firing upon a cargo vessel in August to compel it to halt for inspection.

Five ships, comprising container and bulk carriers, have now utilized the new corridor under Ukrainian navy supervision, departing from the ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi, where they had been stranded since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

— Attorney General Merrick Garland is scheduled to testify Wednesday before the House Judiciary Committee. Garland is likely to face intense criticism from Republicans and Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) on an array of topics, including the now defunct Hunter Biden plea deal and special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Donald Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 riot.

— U.S. officials address trade issues, hope to resolve disputes with Mexico and Canada. Doug McKalip, the chief agricultural negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, and Alexis Taylor, the Agriculture undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs, shared insights into current trade matters during a discussion with the International Fresh Produce Association late last week, according to media reports. Highlights:

Biotech Corn Dispute with Mexico: U.S. officials are optimistic about resolving the biotech corn dispute with Mexico through the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade panel. They aim to conclude the case by April 2024 at the latest.
Dairy Dispute with Canada: The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) hopes to reach a resolution in the USMCA dairy dispute with Canada within a month.
Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity: USTR is working to complete the trade pillar of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity by November.
Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) for Trade Promotion and Food Aid: USDA is prioritizing an evaluation of a letter (link) from Senate Ag Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) regarding the use of the CCC for trade promotion and international food assistance. While USDA cannot allocate additional funds to currently appropriated programs, it could establish a similar initiative to the Agricultural Trade Promotion Program created in 2018 in response to market challenges, and reports signal that is what USDA is doing.

— New farm bill update:

Timing: Leaders of both the House and Senate Ag panels want a bill before the end of the year. If not, a farm bill extension would be needed. The length of any extension is unclear currently.
Funding: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) puts baseline spending over a 10-year period at $1.51 trillion with about $1.2 trillion of the funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as the food stamp program. Senate Ag chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) said she continues to search for additional funding. Speculation continues that the Senate Finance panel may provide $5 billion in additional farm bill funding beyond the farm bill baseline. Additional or funding adjustments is needed to improve Title I safety net provisions. Meanwhile, Senate Ag Committee Republicans are pushing to transfer around $18 billion in climate funding for agriculture conservation programs, provided in a 2022 law, to the farm bill baseline for conservation programs. GOP committee members say USDA rules for what is climate friendly are too restrictive and reduce the number of farmers likely to qualify for cost-share payments. The members say the money should be reprogrammed to include more traditional conservation practices, making it easier to add to the farm bill baseline. However, Democrats, including Stabenow, have resisted this idea, fearing it could hinder efforts to enhance agriculture’s role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Also, USDA has reportedly responded to a Senate Ag Committee leadership request (link) to tap the CCC for trade promotion and international food aid funding. As noted previously, while USDA cannot allocate additional funds to currently appropriated programs, it could establish a similar initiative to the Agricultural Trade Promotion Program created in 2018 in response to market challenges. That apparently has been done.
Bottom line on funding issues: Two things delaying the farm bill in the Senate are not meeting Senate Ag ranking member John Boozman’s (R-Ark.) criteria on Title I funding and needing to wait on appropriations. The House is more complicated. The appropriations process delays things in the House, as in the Senate. But beyond that, the path forward is murky.
Issues: (1) Differences in the Senate regarding efforts by some for a mandatory acreage base update, with House Ag Chairman G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) saying this is still being discussed. (2) Differences in the Senate on the push for higher reference prices. Stabenow is considering changes to the federal crop insurance program that would benefit a broad range of farmers, but other committee members want a new farm bill to focus on producers of major commodity crops. Boozman said increasing reference prices is a priority. “Crop insurance is the underpinning of the farm safety net, but we need to modernize all the risk management tools available to producers,” Boozman said. “A strong crop insurance program coupled with updated reference prices better positions farmers to be able to weather the storm of historic inflation, record large trade deficits and USDA’s own projections for lower commodity prices in the near future.” Meanwhile, Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), the ranking Republican Member of the Senate Ag Appropriations Subcommittee and senior Member of the Senate Ag Committee, reiterated his firm support for a strong farm safety net in the upcoming farm bill. Hoeven stated, “The Commodity Title, Title I, is the heart and soul of a farm bill… We are not where we need to be, and we’re not going to pass a farm bill until we get there.” He continued, “There’s folks that are focused on a lot of things that aren’t farming and ranching, it may be an environmental agenda, it may be various nutritional programs, all those kind of things — but until they get serious about Title I, we’re not going to have a farm bill.”

— To win back control of the House, Democrats only need to flip a net five seats. A new House race analysis from Inside Elections rates 11 seats as toss-ups — seven held by Republicans, and four by Democrats. Some 18 Republicans represent districts Biden won in 2020. House Democrats have received some positive developments in the ongoing redistricting process. Court decisions in three Southern states — Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana — have improved their prospects of gaining an extra congressional seat. Additionally, there’s a possibility of Democrats securing more seats if New York is instructed to redraw its congressional boundaries for the 2024 elections, with a decision on this matter expected later this year. However, the situation is not entirely favorable for Democrats, as Republicans are projected to make gains in North Carolina due to the GOP’s control of the redistricting process in that state.

Events and Reports This Week

Monday, Sept. 18

President Joe Biden In New York City to participate in the 78th Session of the U.N. General Assembly with Secretary of State Antony Blinken participating in events for the remainder of the week.
African agricultural growth. The U.S. Agency for International Development (discussion on financing Africa’s agricultural growth, including remarks from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Global issues; Yellen remarks. Clinton Foundation 2023 meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen participating in a discussion with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Nuclear energy. Atlantic Council Nuclear Energy Policy Summit 2023 with the theme “Accelerating Net Zero Nuclear.” Runs through Tuesday.
Ukraine and MENA. Atlantic Council conference on “New Power Dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) after the Ukraine Crisis.”
Defending Taiwan. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Defending Taiwan: Essays on Deterrence, Alliances, and War.”
EVs and cobalt. Wilson Center’s Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition virtual discussion on “Cobalt and the Electric Vehicle (EV) Supply Chain,” focusing on the current state of cobalt extraction and processing worldwide, and the steps needed in the United States “to secure the energy transition in the automobile industry.”
Russia, Ukraine and NATO. Center for Strategic and International Studies (virtual discussion on “Russia as a Strategic Threat: Ukraine, NATO, and Beyond Europe.”
Supreme Court preview. Cato Institute 22nd annual Constitution Day with the release of the Cato Supreme Court Review and a day-long symposium on the recently concluded Supreme Court term and the important cases coming up.
Energy workforce. Department of Energy (DOE meeting of the 21st Century Energy Workforce Advisory Board for remarks from DOE program offices and a discussion of future energy workforce needs.
Great Lakes protection. Environmental Protection Agency virtual meeting of the Great Lakes Advisory Board to provide advice and recommendations on Great Lakes protection and restoration activities, and long-term goals, objectives, and priorities for Great Lakes protection and restoration.
US foreign policy. Hudson Institute discussion on U.S. foreign policy.
Economic reports. Housing Market Index
Energy reports. Angola preliminary program (November) | World Petroleum Congress, Calgary; runs through Thursday | Holiday: Japan.
USDA reports. AMS. Export Inspections ERS: Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook | Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook NASS: Milk Production | Hop Stocks | Crop Progress

Tuesday, Sept. 19

New farm bill. Bipartisan Policy Center discussion on “The 2023 Farm Bill: Realizing the Conservation, Innovation and Jobs Trifecta.”
U.K. development policy. Center for Global Development virtual discussion on “The Future of U.K. Policy on Development.”
Clinton Foundation. Clinton Foundation 2023 meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative with participation from Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Education Secretary Miguel Cardona.
SEC and cryptocurrency. Securities and Exchange Commission 2023 Securities Enforcement Forum Central conference with a focus on cryptocurrencies and financial disclosure.
Nuclear energy. Final day of the Atlantic Council Nuclear Energy Policy Summit 2023 with the theme “Accelerating Net Zero Nuclear.”
Veterans and rural health. Veterans Affairs Department meeting of the Veterans Rural Health Advisory Committee.
Global challenges. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly on “evolving challenges and how to keep them at the top of the global agenda.”
Green corruption. Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program discussion on “Combating Green Corruption: Fighting Financial Crime as a Driver of Environmental Degradation.”
Impact of Ukraine war on Belarus. German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion on “The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Political Situation in Belarus: Three Short-Term Scenarios.”
The next pandemic. Center for Global Development virtual discussion on “Preparing for the Next Pandemic: Should Genomic Surveillance be a Priority for Low- and Middle-Income Countries?”
SEC and small businesses. Securities and Exchange Commission meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee on matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.
War in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “lessons from the war in Ukraine, the role of ground forces in the Indo-Pacific, Army modernization priorities, and more.”
US-India cooperation. Hudson Institute discussion on “Furthering U.S./India Security Cooperation.”
SEC oversight. House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of the SEC’s Division of Investment Management.”
CHIPS Act review. House Science, Space and Technology Committee hearing on “Chips on the Table: A one year review of the Chips and Science Act.” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo testifies.
FEMA readiness. House Transportation and Infrastructure Economic Development, Public Buildings and Emergency Management Subcommittee hearing on “FEMA: The Current State of Disaster Readiness, Response, and Recovery.”
Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on “Evading Accountability: Corporate Manipulation of Chapter 11 Bankruptcy.”
Future of the Russian military. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion on “The Future of the Russian Military.”
Current threats. Brookings Institution discussion on homeland security and “the current threat environment.”
Government cybersecurity. House Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee hearing on “Evaluating CISA’s (Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency) Federal Civilian Executive Branch Cybersecurity Programs.”
Onshore oil and gas leasing. House Natural Resources Energy and Mineral Resources Subcommittee hearing on “Examining the Biden Administration’s Mismanagement of the Federal Onshore Oil and Gas Program.”
Infrastructure issues. Homeland Security Department meeting of the President’s National Infrastructure Advisory Council.
Businesses and crime. U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual discussion on “Keeping America’s Business Safe: Effective Prosecution to Combat Crime.”
HVDC electric transmission. American Council on Renewable Energy virtual discussion on “The Planning, Operational and Marketing Benefits of High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Transmission for System Operators.”
Mergers and antitrust issues. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Revising the Horizontal Merger Guidelines: The Path Forward,” focusing on antitrust issues.
Regulatory overreach. House Financial Services Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee hearing on “A Holistic Review of Regulators: Regulatory Overreach and Economic Consequences.”
Constitutional amendments. House Judiciary Constitution and Limited Government Subcommittee (Chair Mike Johnson, R-La.) of House Judiciary Committee hearing on “Examining Proposed Constitutional Amendments.”
Bidenomics. House Oversight and Accountability Economic Growth, Energy Policy, and Regulatory Affairs Subcommittee hearing on “Bidenomics: A Perfect Storm of Spending, Debt, and Inflation.”
House Energy and Commerce ‘member day.’ House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing on “Member Day.”
FY 2024 budget: FCC. Senate Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee hearing on “Review of the FY 2024 Budget for the Federal Communications Commission.”
January 6 insurrection. House Administration Oversight Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of United States Capitol Security: Assessing Security Failures on January 6, 2021.”
Uyghurs. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “From Holding the Line to Requiring a Robust International Response to the Atrocities Against the Uyghurs,” from the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly.
Security in the Black Sea region. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “The Future of Security in the Black Sea Region.”
Economic reports. Housing Starts
Energy reports. Handelsblatt Gas Conference, Berlin; runs through Wednesday | API US inventory report | Holiday: India.
USDA reports. ERS: Food Expenditure Series FAS: Stone Fruit: World Markets and Trade

Wednesday, Sept. 20

Government shutdown. Bipartisan Policy Center (virtual discussion on “Can Congress Prevent a Government Shutdown?”
G20 summit review. Axios discussion on “takeaways from the G20 summit, the road ahead for the 2024 election, international economic policy and other big news stories of the day.”
AI issues. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Artificial Intelligence (AI) Forum.
Hispanic caucus meeting. Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute “Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Conference and Gala.”
Chemical value chain. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Chemistry Solutions Summit on “the most important issues and innovation within the chemical value chain.”
Capital and businesses. Punchbowl News discussion on “Capital and American Business.”
Blinken, USAID director comments. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and U.S. Agency for International Development Director Samantha Power deliver remarks on “Democracy Delivers.”
DOJ oversight. House Judiciary Committee hearing on “Oversight of the U.S. Department of Justice.” Attorney General Merrick Garland testifies.
DOT oversight. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee hearing on “Oversight of the Department of Transportation’s Policies and Programs.” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg testifies.
CEQ and federal contracting. House Science, Space and Technology Investigations and Oversight Subcommittee hearing on “A Bar Too High: Concerns with CEQ’s (Council on Environmental Quality) Proposed Regulatory Hurdle for Federal Contracting.”
Hydropower. House Energy and Commerce Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee hearing on “American Hydropower: Unleashing Reliable, Renewable, Clean Power Across the U.S.”
FTC nominees. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on the nominations of Rebecca Slaughter to be a commissioner of the Federal Trade Commission; Melissa Holyoak to be a commissioner of the Federal Trade Commission; Andrew Ferguson to be a commissioner of the Federal Trade Commission; and Douglas Dziak to be a commissioner of the Consumer Product Safety Commission.
AI and financial services. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “Artificial Intelligence in Financial Services.”
U.S. southern border. House Homeland Security Committee hearing on “The Financial Costs of Mayorkas’ Open Border.”
FEC oversight. House Administration Committee hearing on “Oversight of the Federal Election Commission (FEC).” FEC Chair Dara Lindenbaum, Vice Chair Sean Cooksey, and FEC Commissioners Shana Broussard, Allen Dickerson, James Trainor III and FEC Inspector General Christopher Skinner testify.
Supply chains and China. House Energy and Commerce Innovation, Data, and Commerce Subcommittee hearing on “Mapping America’s Supply Chains: Solutions to Unleash Innovation, Boost Economic Resilience, and Beat China.”
Trade and national security. Business Executives for National Security virtual discussion on “Trade — National Security Developments to Counter a Changing World Order.”
Technology and climate change. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “How technology is accelerating the effort to find climate change solutions.”
Supreme Court preview. Heritage Foundation discussion on “Supreme Court Preview of the 2023-2024 Term.”
CPTPP and the Indo-Pacific. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Future of Trade in the Indo-Pacific.”
GSP and China. House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Committee hearing on “Reforming the Generalized System of Preferences to Safeguard US Supply Chains and Combat China.”
Jobs and clean energy. Joint Economic Committee hearing on “Growing the Economy of the Future: Job Training for the Clean Energy Transition.”
Drought impacts on water. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Water and Power Subcommittee hearing on “Drought Impacts on Drinking Water Access and Water Availability.”
Cybersecurity and China. House Judiciary Courts, Intellectual Property, and the Internet Subcommittee hearing on “IP and Strategic Competition with China: Part III - IP Theft, Cybersecurity, and AI.”
Economic reports. FOMC Meeting Conclusion | Fed Chair press conference
Energy reports. EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape weekly crude inventory report | Wood Mackenzie Hydrogen Conference, London | WTI October futures expire.
USDA reports. ERS: Vegetables and Pulses Data | Fruit & Tree Nut Data NASS: Broiler Hatchery

Thursday, Sept. 21

Rural broadband funding. House Energy and Commerce Communications and Technology Subcommittee hearing on “Connecting Every American: The Future of Rural Broadband Funding.”
Russia’s Wagner Group. Brookings Institution virtual discussion on “The Legacy and Future of the Wagner Group.”
Workplace shifts. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “How Policymakers, Businesses and Educators are Adapting to the Changing Workplace.”
Renewable energy. International Trade Administration meeting of the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Advisory Committee.
Rural communications issues. Federal Communications Commission (meeting on issues including satellite application processing, updating the 5G fund for rural America, direct access to phone numbers and updating obsolete TV broadcasting rules.
FDIC agenda. Cato Institute forum on “Insights on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) Agenda.”
Future of U.S./Russia relations. Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service’s Center for European, Russian, and East European Studies virtual discussion on “Russia Brief: When Things Fall Apart: Can U.S./Russia Relations be Rebuilt?”
Crypto issues. New America virtual discussion on “Numbers Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall.”
U.S./China policy, Ukraine and U.S. elections. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion on “The 2024 Presidential Race is on: How Will U.S./China Policy and the Ukraine War Shape It?”
Carbon dioxide removal. United States Energy Association virtual discussion on “Unlocking Carbon Dioxide Removal’s (CDR) Potential.”
IPEF and digital trade. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Digital Trade Rules and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity.”
Veterans and SNAP. RAND Corporation virtual discussion on “Why Don’t Food-Insecure Veterans Enroll in SNAP? Insights from New RAND Research, Government, and Veteran Organizations.”
Economic reports. Jobless Claims | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing | Existing Home Sales | Current Account | Leading Indicators
Energy reports. Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data | EIA Natural Gas Report.
USDA reports. FAS: Export Sales NASS: Livestock Slaughter

Friday, Sept. 22

Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivers keynote remarks at the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Fall 2023 Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference.
Geoeconomics. Atlantic Council 2023 Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics on the use of tools of economic statecraft.
Ohio train derailment. House Energy and Commerce Environment, Manufacturing, and Critical Materials Subcommittee field hearing on “Life After the Train Derailment: Ensuring Transparency and Accountability for the People of East Palestine.”
Semiconductor supply chains. Brookings Institution discussion on “Strengthening U.S. Semiconductor Supply Chain Resilience.”
Economic reports. PMI Composite Flash
Energy reports. ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil | Baker-Hughes Rig Count | CFTC Commitments of Traders.
USDA reports. ERS: Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables NASS: NASS: Cotton Ginnings | Cattle on Feed | Chickens & Eggs | Peanut Prices

Economic Reports for the Week

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets mid-week and announces its decision on Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to raise rate but could tilt a little more to the hawkish side after a stronger-than-anticipated inflation report for August. Economic reports due include updates on housing starts, crude oil inventories, and initial jobless claims.

Monday, Sept. 18

Housing Market Index: Forecasters expect the housing market index to hold unchanged in September after falling an unexpected 6 points in August to a very subdued 50.
Treasury International Capital
Earnings: Stitch Fix

Tuesday, Sept. 19

Housing starts and permits: After rising from 1.398 million in June to 1.452 million in July, housing starts in August are expected to fall back to a 1.435 million annual rate. Permits, which held steady at 1.442 million in July, are expected at 1.440 million.
Earnings: AutoZone, Steelcase, and Apogee Enterprises

Wednesday, Sept. 20

MBA Mortgage Applications
FOMC announcement: After resuming rate increases in July by 25 basis points, the Fed is expected to hold rates unchanged at their September meeting. Many economists anticipate the Fed’s GDP growth projections will be revised up, while the forecasted unemployment rate is likely to be revised down. June’s Summary of Economic Projections, for example, still projected unemployment would rise to 4.1% by the end of the year. Given it was only 3.8% in August, it’s likely the September projections will be lowered to less than 4%. The economic outlook for next year may also marginally shift upward.
Fed Chair presser: As usual, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be dissected for any hits of what’s ahead.
Earnings: FedEx, General Mills, and KB Home

Thursday, Sept. 21

Jobless Claims for the Sept. 16 week are expected to come in at 225,000 versus 220,000 and 217,000 in the two prior weeks which marked a turn lower for this reading.
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: Jumping more than 25 points to plus 12, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index ended a full year of contraction in August. Retracement to plus 0.5 is September’s consensus.
Current Account: The second-quarter current account deficit is expected to widen to $220.6 billion versus $219.3 billion in the first quarter.
Existing Home Sales: After July’s subdued 4.07 million annual rate, existing home sales in August are expected to firm slightly to a 4.10 million rate. The National Association of Realtors has been citing lack of available inventory and rising mortgage rates for the slow pace of sales.
Leading Indicators: Down by 0.4% in July, the index of leading economic indicators in August is expected to post a 17th straight decline, down a consensus 0.3%. This index has been in very deep decline and has long been signaling a pending recession.
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply
Earnings: Darden Restaurants and FactSet Research
Bank of England is expected to raise its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 5.5%.

Friday, Sept. 22

PMI Composite Flash: Services have held the 50 column the last seven reports but have been noticeably slowing with the consensus for September at 50.2 versus August’s 50.5. Manufacturing, at 47.9 in August, is expected at 47.8 in July.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivers keynote remarks at the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Fall 2023 Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference.
Bank of Japan is likely to keep its rate unchanged, at negative 0.1%. However, market participants will be looking to see if there are hints of a near-future rate hike.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

Thursday brings the monthly International Grains Council report.

Monday, Sept. 18

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Crop Progress
Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook
Hop Stocks
Milk Production
Monthly MARS report on EU crop conditions
China’s 2nd batch of August trade data, including agricultural imports
Holiday: Japan