House Farm Bill Markup Today as Topic Turns Political Inside and Outside Congress

Big EV discounts | FOMC minutes | Bird flu vaccine | USTR Tai meets with other USMCA leaders

Jim Wiesemeyer

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May 23, 2024 08:11 AM

Big EV discounts | FOMC minutes | Bird flu vaccine | USTR Tai meets with other USMCA leaders

Today’s Digital Newspaper

MARKET FOCUS

Nvidia shares rose after it reports record quarter and announce 10-for-1 stock split
Next industrial revolution has begun,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang declares
DuPont de Nemours planning to split itself into three publicly traded companies
VIX “fear gauge” pointing to almost no fear in markets at all
FOMC minutes from April 30-May 1 meeting reveal a strong focus on inflation
Barron’s story reads: ‘Commodities are hot’
Ag markets today
Australia testing gene-edited wheat
Ag trade update
NWS weather outlook
Pro Farmer First Thing Today items

POLICY

House Ag Committee to markup its $1.51 trillion farm bill proposal today
FarmDoc articles raise thorny equity/regional battles in new farm bill debate
Southern Ag Today puts needed perspective on farm bill discussions
Vilsack slams the House Republican-led farm bill just head of today’s markup
GT Thompson responds to Vilsack
Where’s Stabenow bill text, scoring?

CHINA

Corn, cotton lead export sales to China in most recent week
China launched large-scale military drills surrounding Taiwan
Yellen: China faces ‘wall of opposition’ on industrial overcapacity
China banks support developer Vanke, Fitch downgrades outlook

TRADE POLICY

USTR Tai’s meetings with USMCA counterparts focused on critical trade issues

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

Big EV discounts

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

Michigan reports human case of H5N1 bird flu, second linked outbreak in dairy cows

HEALTH UPDATE

U.S. in ‘active conversations’ on potential H5N1 vaccine for humans

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

Nikki Haley says she will vote for Donald Trump in November’s election
Republican seat count in House expands

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

DOJ targets Ticketmaster

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. In Asia, Japan +1.3%. Hong Kong -1.7%. China -1.3%. India +1.6%. In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.2%.U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings. The calendar of Fed speakers slows, with only Raphael Bostic on the schedule.

U.S. equities yesterday: All three indices finished with losses after falling in the wake of the release of the minutes from the April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting. The Dow fell 201.95 points, 0.51%, at 39,671.04. The Nasdaq lost 31.08 points, 0.18%, at 16,801.54. The S&P 500 declined 14.40 points, 0.27%, at 5,307.01.

— Nvidia shares rose about 7% in premarket trading after it reported a record quarter and announced a 10-for-1 stock split, effective in June.

— DuPont de Nemours is planning to split itself into three publicly-traded companies, the latest in a line of industrial conglomerates which have been breaking up into smaller, more focused businesses. The company’s shares gained 5% premarket. DuPont CEO Ed Breen said the break-up plan will unlock incremental value for shareholders and customers, and announced that current CFO Lori Koch will succeed him in his current role, effective June 1. Breen will transition to full-time executive chairman.

— Ag markets today: Grain markets posted two-sided price action in relatively quiet overnight trade. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading fractionally to 2 cents higher, soybeans were 2 to 3 cents higher, SRW wheat was mostly a penny lower, HRW wheat was mostly a penny higher and HRS wheat was 4 to 5 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures were around 50 cents higher, and the U.S. dollar index was down 185 points.

Initial cash cattle trade at higher prices. Initial light cash trade took place at higher prices in the northern market this week. Though cash negotiations have been slow to develop in most areas, it appears the average cash cattle price will challenge or eclipse the all-time high of $189.56 posted in March. Despite recent strong gains, nearby live cattle remain well below the cash market.

Cash hog fundamentals easing. The CME lean hog index is down 19 cents to $91.82 as of May 21, the third straight daily decline, though losses total only 47 cents over that span. The pork cutout dropped 62 cents on Wednesday to $100.07 and is $1.70 off its recent peak.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

Corn: July corn rose 3 1/4 cents to $4.61 1/4, a near mid-range close.
Soy complex: July soybeans rose 10 cents to $12.46 1/4 and nearer the session high. July soybean meal closed up $5.90 at $378.20 and near the session high. July soybean oil closed up 7 points at 45.88 cents, nearer the session low and hit a five-week high early on.
Wheat: July SRW wheat closed 4 1/2 cents lower at $6.93, while July HRW fell 2 cents to $6.99 1/2, each closing near session lows. July HRS futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $7.36 1/2.
Cotton: July cotton closed up the 300-point limit at 79.38 cents.
Cattle: Cattle and feeder futures continued their upward March Wednesday, with June live cattle rising $1.20 to $184.175 and most-active August feeders surging $3.075 to $262.90. The cash cattle market gives no sign of slowing its recent advance.
Hogs: June lean hog futures sank $1.00 to $95.40, settling nearer session lows.

— Quotes of note:

“The next industrial revolution has begun,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang declared. “Companies and countries are partnering with Nvidia to shift the trillion-dollar traditional data centers to accelerated computing to produce a new commodity: artificial intelligence.”

The VIX “fear gauge” is pointing to almost no fear in markets at all; that is probably not the right attitude for markets facing a knife-edge presidential election, a confusing economy and a Federal Reserve in two minds about rate cuts, says the WSJ Streetwise’s James Mackintosh (link).

— FOMC minutes from April 30-May 1 meeting reveal a strong focus on inflation, with frustration over slow progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Most members agreed to slow the balance sheet runoff but had differing opinions on the pace. Key Points:

Inflation focus: Inflation remains a significant concern, with officials noting that progress toward the 2% goal has slowed or stalled. Despite some improvement in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, disinflation is slower than expected, and risks to the inflation outlook remain tilted to the upside due to potential supply-side disruptions and persistent inflation dynamics.
Economic risks: The forecast for economic activity is seen as skewed to the downside. Persistent inflation could lead to tighter financial conditions and deteriorating household financial positions, particularly for lower-income households, posing a larger drag on activity than anticipated.
Balance sheet runoff: The committee discussed slowing the pace of the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings decline. Almost all participants supported reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion while maintaining the cap on agency debt and mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion. However, a few participants preferred holding the pace steady or setting a higher cap for Treasury securities.
Monetary policy outlook: The path of monetary policy will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. There is uncertainty about the degree of monetary policy restrictiveness, with high interest rates potentially having smaller effects than in the past. Some participants indicated a willingness to tighten policy further if inflation risks materialize.
No clear rate cut indication: The minutes did not provide clear indications on the timing of any rate cuts. While there is a consensus that rates will need to stay higher for longer to combat inflation, officials did not rule out the possibility of tightening monetary policy further if necessary.
Communication and public perception: Officials emphasized the need to communicate their policy stance clearly to the public, noting that disappointing inflation readings and strong economic momentum suggest it will take longer to gain confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target.
Conclusions: Inflation is the primary focus for the Fed, with a strong emphasis on monitoring inflation data before making any monetary policy changes. The timing of future policy moves remains uncertain, with no solid hints on when rate cuts might occur. The Fed is cautious about making drastic changes and is prepared to keep rates higher for longer to ensure inflation moves sustainably toward the 2% target.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker, with the euro and British pound both higher against the U.S. currency. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield was weaker, around 4.41%, with a mixed tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were moving higher, with U.S. crude around $78.15 per barrel and Brent around $82.50 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were under significant pressure, with gold around $2,369 per troy ounce and silver around $30.88 per troy ounce.

— A Barron’s story reads: “Commodities are hot….” The article (link) says “Commodities are having their moment. Gold and copper have hit historic highs while agriculture is knocking on the door to join the party.” The story continues, saying “bottom line, the commodity bull market is alive and well and has more upside.”

— Australia testing gene-edited wheat. Groundwork for a major trial of gene-edited wheat has begun in Australia, where a state company is growing hundreds of varieties it says could be up to 10% more productive and make farming more sustainable. Australian seed breeder InterGrain earlier this year imported several thousand wheat seeds created by U.S. agritech company Inari, including hundreds of new genetic variations, InterGrain chief executive Tress Walmsley told Reuters. These seeds are now growing in a testing greenhouse in southeast Queensland. Seeds from those plants will be used to grow more plants, producing enough seeds to plant at more than 45 trial sites across the country in the 2025 growing season, Walmsley said. Inari uses artificial intelligence to map huge numbers of potential gene edits and then applies CRISPR-Cas — a tool that can find and alter selected stretches of DNA – to change multiple genes simultaneously, allowing it to dial up or down characteristics. Gene editing could achieve gains 10 to 15 times faster than traditional plant breeding, InterGrain and Inari said.

— Ag trade update: South Korea purchased 271,000 MT of corn expected to be sourced mostly from South America or South Africa.

— NWS weather outlook: Heavy rain and severe weather threats across the Arklatex region today will expand northward across the northern and central Plains tonight... ...Heavy rain and severe weather threats will shift east into the Midwest and remain across the Arklatex region on Friday... ...Heavy snow expected today across the higher elevations of the northern Rockies.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Wheat mixed, corn and beans firmer this morning
• Smaller German wheat, rapeseed crops expected
• Eurozone business growth hits one-year high

POLICY UPDATE

— House Ag Committee to markup its $1.51 trillion farm bill proposal today. The nearly 940-page bill includes provisions for farm, food safety, and nutrition programs, with a five-year reauthorization period. House Republicans are striving for bipartisan support but face significant Democratic opposition, particularly over proposed freezes to SNAP payments, changes to environmental and conservation programs, and restricting the Ag secretary’s use of Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) funding.

Ag panel Chair GT Thompson has been actively trying to secure support from vulnerable Democrats. Despite efforts, including a meeting with four key Democrats — Reps. Angie Craig (Minn.), Nikki Budzinski (Ill.), Andrea Salinas (Ore.), and Eric Sorensen (Ill.) — the bid was unsuccessful.

Democrats voting no, contacts say, should be asked why Stabenow has not yet released text of her farm bill, including some preliminary CBO scores. As previously noted, most expect Stabenow to refrain from officially releasing full text of a bill unless the full House clears a farm bill.

Democrats are expected to propose significant amendments during the markup, which Republicans are unlikely to support. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is working to maintain Democratic unity against the bill.

Preliminary scoring from the Congressional Budget Office indicates the Thompson plan would increase the deficit by nearly $40 billion over the next decade, a leaked estimate that Republicans dispute.

Amendments: There are 12 Democratic amendments for today’s markup. One would strip out Thompson’s move to make future updates to the Thrifty Food Plan budget-neutral. Another would reattach the strict climate “guardrails” on conservation funding from the Inflation Reduction Act. These types of amendments will likely be defeated by the GOP-controlled panel.

Outlook: The House Ag panel should have the GOP votes to get the farm bill out of committee. But after that the road is murky. Getting floor consideration will prove difficult if (1) some Rules Committee Republicans balk, as some expect and (2) if it appears not enough Democratic members will offset the number of Republicans expected to vote against the measure. That is why House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has been cautious in his remarks about future floor consideration.

— FarmDoc articles have raised thorny equity/regional battles in the new farm bill debate. But some ag industry analysts say the House GOP farm bill’s support for southern crops should be taken in context relative to overall federal program support for other program crops such as corn and soybeans. For example:

Corn

Current total ARC/PLC/MLB baseline (2025-2034): $23.06/acre (base)
Projected Value of RFS*: $91.75/ac
Total Benefits Attributable to Federal Policy: $114.82/ac

Rice

Current total ARC/PLC/MLB baseline (2025-2034): $57.27/acre (base)
Projected Value of RFS**: $0/ac
Total Benefits Attributable to Federal Policy: $57.27/ac

Says one analyst: “While FarmDoc is choosing to play games, the reality is that corn farmers benefit from these two federal policies alone to the tune of 2X compared to rice. As the saying goes: ‘Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.’”

Note: *This is a conservative estimate assuming a 12% impact of the RFS on corn price, drawn from this publication (page 4). Note that if you use a widely quoted figure of 30%, the total value of farm bill and RFS to corn is $252/ac, or almost 5X the assistance being provided to rice producers on a per-acre basis.

Note: **Lest anyone argue that all crops have benefited from the RFS (by pulling acres into corn and raising prices for all): (a) corn has clearly benefited the most, by far; (b) most rice fields are flat and graded for flood irrigation; and (3) rice prices are impacted far more by factors outside of the United States.

Perspective: Farmers rely on what should be basic policy analysis from various universities and groups like FarmDoc. But increasingly some of the analysis contains political considerations that an increasing number of people are questioning why taxpayer funding is going to these groups. Says one industry contact: “I can’t recall seeing a time when data and ‘facts’ were more cherry picked than we have seen over the last week.”

For a different and unbiased approach to this issue, read the next item.

— Southern Ag Today puts perspective on the latest farm bill developments. In an article today (link), the authors write:

“If you are following the conversation about reference prices… here are a few facts:

“There was a time when agricultural economists who focus on farm policy didn’t take a position on a farm bill proposal. At least the authors of this article were taught by our mentors… just describe what’s in a policy proposal and don’t take a position…that’s not your job. Good and bad was for others to decide... primarily elected officials since it is, in fact, their job. Those days are over. In the last two weeks since the House Agriculture Committee majority released details of their bill, there has been a steady stream of articles talking about the proposal’s reference price increases as being tilted to the South and Southern crops.

“We thought we would instead try to provide facts and information that you can use to help decide whether any proposed bill — House or Senate — is providing a safety net for all U.S. farmers.

Fact #1

“During the development of every farm bill, there are people who say unequivocally that one or more commodities are advantaged relative to others. In the current environment – with ARC and PLC as the Title I safety net programs — since they are both countercyclical, producing a map that shows payments are higher in one area really means very little. It very likely means that prices for those crops are lower and triggering payments, not that the farm bill was titled toward producers of those crops.”

Fact #2

“While farm bills encompass a broad range of topics, producers rely on the programs in Title I and Title XI to provide a minimal safety net so they can endure economic downturns like we are currently in. Without meaningfully bolstering the safety net provided in Title I and Title XI, the producers we encounter all over the country see little benefit in passing a new farm bill.”

Fact #3

“Statutory reference prices were established in the 2014 Farm Bill and have not kept up with increases in the cost of production. Using USDA cost of production data, the average increase in costs from 2014 to 2023 (the most current) for corn, cotton, grain sorghum, peanuts, rice, soybeans, and wheat was 31%.

Fact #4

“The effective reference price (ERP) provisions included in the 2018 Farm Bill allow individual crop reference prices to increase based on the 5-year Olympic average of market prices (lagged one year) multiplied by 85%. ERPs are capped at 115% of statutory reference prices. Of the 23 covered commodities with reference prices, only 10 (corn, oats, soybeans, grain sorghum, large chickpeas, small chickpeas, mustard seed, crambe, sesame seed and temperate japonica rice) had market prices increase enough to result in a 2024 ERP greater than the statutory reference prices in the 2018 Farm Bill. Of these 10, only corn, soybeans and grain sorghum represent significant base acreages. Based on realized market prices and CBO projections, corn and soybean ERPs are expected to increase each year and hit the 115% cap in each year through 2027. Based on hearing testimony in both the House and Senate, commodities not in that position were seeking reference price increases in the next farm bill.”

Fact #5

“Statutory reference prices are set by Congress. In past farm bills, at least since the 1970s, reference prices and their predecessor (i.e., target prices) have been established with the commodity’s cost of production in mind. Looking at major crop cost of production for 2023 indicates that current reference prices are not covering much of major commodity costs (Table 1). This happens for two reasons: (1) costs are higher than reference prices and (2) the payment calculations use an 85% payment factor to reduce payments. Based on USDA data, wheat and grain sorghum appear to have the strongest case for significant reference price increases, but USDA data is just one resource the Committees use in establishing support levels.”

— USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack slams the House Republican-led farm bill just head of today’s markup. Vilsack argued that the bill relies on unrealistic budget strategies and overpromises improvements to farm programs. His key points:

Budget gimmicks criticized: Vilsack labeled the savings claimed from Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) restrictions as “counterfeit money,” questioning the bill’s reliance on these funds for costly farm program improvements.
Democratic opposition: Vilsack’s sentiments reflect broader Democratic opposition, including concerns over nutrition and climate provisions. House Ag Ranking Member David Scott (D-Ga.) and other Democrats argue the bill’s changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and other measures are unacceptable.
Thompson’s stance: House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.) supports including CCC restrictions, arguing they rein in reckless administrative spending and fund key bipartisan priorities.
Senate view: Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) offers what Vilsack said is an alternative, more pragmatic farm bill framework. Vilsack endorsed Stabenow’s proposals, describing them as practical and achievable compared to the House’s more aggressive measures. However, congressional contacts say Stabenow will only officially provide text for her bill if the House passes its version of the farm bill.
Potential for delay: Vilsack warned that advancing the House bill as proposed risks further delaying the farm bill, already a year late, and could add uncertainty for farmers and conservation programs.
Nutrition provisions: The bill’s proposed restrictions on future SNAP benefit increases, based on Thrifty Food Plan (TFP) updates, are estimated to save $27 billion. These savings are intended to fund agricultural policy updates, which Vilsack argues could fracture the traditional bipartisan coalition supporting the farm bill.
Funding discrepancies: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects $8 billion in savings from CCC provisions over the next decade, significantly less than the $53 billion claimed by Republicans. Vilsack criticized these projections as unrealistic and warned they could hamper the USDA’s ability to respond to emergencies.

— Thompson responds to Vilsack. House Ag Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) said:

“Funding the farm bill is always a puzzle, and finding the right pieces to produce a strong farm bill has been tricky but also a worthwhile venture because we’ve been able to make historic investments in the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2024.

“It’s clear from this eleventh hour push that the Secretary is determined to use every penny of the borrowing authority made available to him to circumvent Congress if left unchecked. The Committee is reasserting Congress’ authority over the Commodity Credit Corporation, which will bring reckless administrative spending under control and provides funding for key bipartisan priorities in the farm bill.

“The sudden rancor on using the CCC as a pay-for is nothing more than the latest partisan attempt to divide our committee and slow down progress on passing a farm bill.”

CHINA UPDATE

— Corn, cotton lead export sales to China in most recent week. USDA export sales data for the week ended May 16 outlined activity to China for 2023-24 including net sales of 273,839 metric tons of corn, 4,419 metric tons of sorghum, 2,500 metric tons of soybeans, and 104,435 running bales of upland cotton. For 2024-25, there were net sales of 2,000 metric tons of wheat (the first for 2024-25) and 13,218 running bales of upland cotton. For 2024, net sales of 5,829 metric tons of beef and 995 metric tons of pork were reported.

— China launched large-scale military drills surrounding Taiwan, a warning shot that will test the island’s newly inaugurated president. Taiwan says its forces are now on alert, in response to Chinese Regime military drills encircling the Island.

— Yellen: China faces ‘wall of opposition’ on industrial overcapacity. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday that it was important for G7 countries and other economies to show China that it faces a “wall of opposition” over its excess industrial capacity, which threatens to flood the world with cheap exports. Yellen said concerns expressed by the U.S. and Europe about China’s overinvestment in electric vehicles, solar products, semiconductors and other strategic sectors were shared by emerging market economies including Mexico, India and South Africa.

— China banks support developer Vanke, Fitch downgrades outlook. Cash-strapped major property developer China Vanke said on it had received a 20 billion yuan ($2.76 billion) syndicated loan facility and it would continue to push forward other financing to boost its liquidity. The latest deal brings the total of loans Vanke and its units have taken out this month to nearly 28 billion yuan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on public filings. Credit ratings agency Fitch downgraded China Vanke to BB- with a negative outlook.

TRADE POLICY

— U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai met with her counterparts from Mexico and Canada in Phoenix, Arizona, to discuss issues under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) Free Trade Commission (FTC). Key Points:

Meeting overview: Tai held separate discussions with Mexican Secretary of Economy Raquel Buenrostro and Canadian Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade, and Economic Development Mary Ng.
Forced labor and trade flow: Both meetings focused on prohibiting the import of goods produced with forced labor and on actions to support and maintain North American trade flows during emergencies.
Canada’s digital tax and dairy issues: In her discussion with Mary Ng, Tai raised concerns over Canada’s proposed digital tax and expressed dissatisfaction with Canada’s dairy tariff rate quota allocation measures.
Mexico’s energy and trade issues: In her meeting with Raquel Buenrostro, Tai emphasized the need for progress in USMCA consultations regarding Mexican energy measures, discussed Mexican enforcement of fisheries measures, and addressed concerns about Mexico’s telecommunications market and persistent problems in steel and aluminum trade.
Omission of GMO corn for food use dispute: Notably, there was no mention of the ongoing dispute over Mexico’s decree to bar imports of GMO corn for food use, which is currently under review by a USMCA dispute settlement panel.
USMCA review. In her prepared remarks, Tai also noted the six-year review of USMCA that is approaching, saying the Biden administration “priority” is to make sure that “more people—especially workers, their communities, and those that have been historically left behind by trade—can benefit” from USMCA.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

— STAT: Michigan reports a human case of H5N1 bird flu, the nation’s second linked to an outbreak in dairy cows, according to STAT (link). A farm worker in Michigan has been diagnosed with H5N1 bird flu, marking the second human case linked to the current outbreak in dairy cows in the United States. The individual experienced mild symptoms and has recovered. Health officials emphasize that this appears to be a sporadic infection with no ongoing spread and that the public health risk remains low.

Farmworkers exposed to infected animals are being monitored and tested. This case follows the first H5N1 infection in a dairy farm worker in Texas earlier in the outbreak, and another case in Colorado in 2022 involving a man culling infected poultry.

Since 2003, nearly 900 people worldwide have been infected with H5N1, mostly through exposure to infected poultry, with rare instances of possible limited human-to-human transmission. The virus has not shown the ability to spread easily among people.

The outbreak in dairy cattle, the first of its kind, was confirmed in March after a drop in milk production. USDA has identified outbreaks in 51 herds across nine states, with Michigan reporting the highest number at 19 herds. The true extent of the outbreak is believed to be underreported due to farmers’ reluctance to allow testing.

Michigan has adopted a proactive public health approach, mandating enhanced biosecurity measures for farms. State officials have tested numerous individuals, with the recent case being the first positive result. Michigan’s Department of Agriculture is actively working with farmers and health authorities to trace the virus’s spread and mitigate its impact.

HEALTH UPDATE

— U.S. in ‘active conversations’ on potential H5N1 vaccine for humans. The U.S. is in “active conversations” with mRNA vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna about a potential H5N1 vaccine for humans, a Department of Health and Human Services official said Wednesday. That came after it was revealed a second human case of the virus was found in a farmworker in Michigan (see related item). The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reiterated risk from the virus to the public remains low. CDC has not seen evidence of human-to-human transmission of H5N1 and has tested close to 40 people since March, including the Michigan worker. All the people who were tested were connected to or had exposures on a dairy farm, CDC said.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— House Republicans are expanding their majority to 218 seats following Vince Fong’s victory in a special election for California’s 20th District. Fong, a state representative and former district director for ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), won with approximately 60% of the vote against county sheriff Mike Boudreaux. This win bolsters the slim majority of Speaker Mike Johnson. Fong’s victory means the House will have 218 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and four vacancies. Fong, one of 17 Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPI) in the House, is expected to win a full two-year term in the upcoming November election. Fong’s win fills the seat vacated by McCarthy, who left office on Dec. 31 after being removed as speaker three months prior.

— Nikki Haley says she will vote for Donald Trump in November’s election. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who suspended her presidential campaign in early March, announced her support for Donald Trump but emphasized that her supporters might not automatically back him. Haley made this announcement during her first public appearance since suspending her campaign, at the Hudson Institute. In her speech, Haley attacked President Biden’s foreign policy, particularly his handling of the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. She labeled Biden’s presidency as catastrophic on key issues such as border security, capitalism, and debt.

Despite suspending her campaign, Haley continues to garner significant support in primaries, achieving over 20% of the vote in the Indiana primary against Trump.

The Biden campaign quickly reacted to Haley’s endorsement of Trump by sharing past clips of Trump criticizing Haley’s supporters. Biden’s team is actively trying to recruit Haley’s supporters, emphasizing their disapproval of Trump’s chaos and division.

Haley announced plans to travel to Israel to show support and assess the situation on the ground. She has not spoken to either Trump or Biden since suspending her campaign.

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

— DOJ targets Ticketmaster. The Justice Department and several states are anticipated to file an antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation, targeting its Ticketmaster unit for alleged market dominance. This lawsuit could potentially lead to significant changes in the live events industry. The lawsuit will address alleged antitrust violations due to Ticketmaster’s market dominance. A successful case could lead to major reforms in the market for live events, improving competition and potentially reducing issues such as poor customer service, confusing pricing, and high ticketing fees. Ticketmaster faced intense scrutiny in 2022 after technical glitches blocked millions of fans from purchasing tickets for Taylor Swift’s “Eras” tour. This incident highlighted the problems associated with limited competition in the ticketing industry.

KEY LINKS

Policy Updates