U.S. employers added 531,000 jobs in October, a sign growth is resuming
In Today’s Digital Newspaper
Market Focus:
• U.S. job growth rebounded as employment rose 531,000; jobless rate fell to 4.6%
• OPEC+ sticking to its oil production schedule; focus on Biden admin. reaction
• U.S. trade deficit widened in September to $80.9 billion, a record
• Monthlong strike at Kellogg Co. raising cereal company’s costs
• Inflation watch: Global food prices are up more than 20% since start of year
• Bank of England’s not to raise interest rates sent bond markets into tizzy
• White House asking Dem senators to meet with Fed’s Powell before Thanksgiving
• Deere strike update
• Incoming N.Y. wants to be paid in bitcoin
• Shortage of nitrogen fertilizer forcing U.S. farmers to scale back purchases
• Poor harvest of spring wheat and concern over winter crop pushing prices higher
• Focus on sugar market as exporters convert more cane into ethanol
• Soybeans face light follow-through selling, corn and wheat bounce
• Stronger jobs data expected this morning
• China’s damage control on food shortage scare continues
• Cattle pressure causes concern of repeat performance
• Hogs looking for a strong weekly close
Policy Focus:
• Democratic leaders will try again today to hold two infrastructure votes
• If House clears both infrastructure measures, BIF headed to White House
• Next step for BBB: Senate, where chamber will alter House language in several areas
Biden Administration Personnel:
• Robert Santos confirmed to head Census Bureau
• Senate Ag panel advances CFTC chair nominee
• Schumer files cloture on Robert Bonnie nomination for USDA post
China Update:
• Shares of Kaisa Group, a property developer, suspended on Hong Kong’s stock exchange
• Xi, Biden likely to agree to reopen consulates
• China’s damage control on food shortage scare continues
Trade Policy:
• Complex U.S./EU steel tariff deal could be difficult for smaller importers: WSJ
Energy & Climate Change:
• Midwest governors query EPA on potential state level year-round E15 sales fix
Livestock, Food & Beverage Industry Update:
• Produce industry battling efforts to ban PLU stickers
Coronavirus Update:
• U.S. sets Jan. 4 vaccination deadline for big private employers
• Europe could see 500,000 more covid deaths by February
• Pfizer pill to treat Covid-19 found highly effective
• Scientists identified gene that doubles risk of lung failure and death from Covid-19
Politics & Elections:
• Virginia gubernatorial election review
• New Jersey pollster apologizes: ‘I blew it’
• Trump dossier source arrested
Other Items of Note:
• White House: Biden ‘perfectly comfortable’ paying separated families
• Biden approves Saudi weapons deal
• CHS income soars
MARKET FOCUS
Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to strong openings after a positive U.S. Employment report. Asian equity markets finished mostly lower to end the week amid fresh concerns about the financial condition of Chinese property developers. Japan’s Nikkei was down 182.80 points, 0.61%, at 29,611.57. The Hang Seng Index was off 354.68 points, 1.41%, at 24,870.51. European equities are moving higher. The Stoxx 600 was up 0.2% while other markets posted gains of 0.1% to 0.9%. Swiss markets, however, have turned narrowly lower. U.S. employers added 531,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%.
U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow fell 33.35 points, 0.1%, to 36,124.23. That broke a five-day winning streak, but it was still the Dow’s second-highest close in history. The S&P 500 rose 19.49 points, 0.4%, to 4,680.06. The Nasdaq gained 128.72 points, 0.8%, to 15,940.31. It was the sixth consecutive record close for both indexes.
On tap today (see detailed list of events and reports below):
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 450,000 in October and the unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 4.7% from 4.8% one month earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET) UPDATE: The U.S. economy added 531,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department said, a sharp rebound from the prior month and a sign that employers are feeling more optimistic as the latest coronavirus surge eases. Economists had been looking for a gain of 450,000 jobs. The unemployment rate declined to 4.6%, from 4.8%. The October gain was an improvement from the 312,000 positions added in September — a number that was revised upward today. • Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on energy and the economy at 9:30 a.m. ET.
• President Biden will attend the funeral of former Secretary of State Colin Powell at the Washington National Cathedral at 12 p.m. ET. The president is scheduled to spend the weekend in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. The president is scheduled to spend the weekend in Rehoboth Beach, Del.
• Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1 p.m. ET.
• Federal Reserve releases September consumer credit data at 3 p.m. ET.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report, 3:30 p.m. ET.
U.S. trade deficit widened in September to $80.9 billion, a record, driven by climbing demand for capital goods like computers and electric equipment, and industrial supplies that have been soaring in cost as global supply chains remain snarled. The deficit in trade of goods and services grew 11.2% in September, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The trade gap has been trending wider throughout the economic recovery, but this was the sharpest monthly increase since July of 2020. Imports rose to $288.5 billion, also a monthly record.
Monthlong strike at Kellogg Co. is raising the cereal company’s costs as it contends with continuing inflation and supply-chain disruptions. More than 1,000 employees walked off the job at Kellogg’s U.S. cereal plants last month, objecting to the company’s proposals during contract negotiations regarding holiday and vacation pay, retirement benefits and healthcare.
Inflation watch: Global food prices are up more than 20% since the start of the year, a setback for consumers that is especially acute in developing nations still struggling to emerge from Covid-19 disruptions. A United Nations index measuring international prices of a basket of food commodities in October rose to the highest level since mid-2011.
Bank of England’s decision Thursday not to raise interest rates sent bond markets into a tizzy, leading to the biggest moves in U.K. bond yields in years. The bank has said it expects to raise borrowing costs soon, moving ahead of the Federal Reserve and other major central banks in withdrawing stimulus to tame inflation. But the bank held Thursday, surprising investors who had become convinced an increase was coming. Yields on one-year government bonds, known as gilts in the U.K., nearly halved within hours, dropping 0.22 percentage point, in their biggest daily move since the 2009 financial crisis. The downdraft in yields rippled to other government-bond markets.
White House is asking Democratic senators to meet with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell before Thanksgiving — leading some to believe President Biden will renominate him this month. The Wall Street Journal reported that Powell was seen visiting the White House on Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter. Powell’s term leading the central bank is set to expire next February. President Biden told reporters on Tuesday that he would announce decisions “fairly quickly” on whether he was offering Powell another term or tapping someone else to succeed him. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has lauded Mr. Powell’s record. “I think that Chair Powell has certainly done a good job,” she said in comments published by CNBC on Monday. “He responded very admirably to the crisis that we saw after the pandemic, and he’s established with his colleagues a new framework that is very focused on achieving full employment.”
Deere strike update: Deere managed to bring a lot more workers on board with its latest proposal. While 90% of workers rejected the company’s first offer, 55% voted against the second one. The company needs a simple majority to reach a deal with the UAW — and aims to chip away at the holdouts in the days and weeks to come. Continued strike is hurting both sides, with employees losing wages and employers seeing dents in their profits. Meanwhile, Deere said it’s trying to keep its parts depots and parts distribution center operational to ensure farmers can complete their harvest season.
Market perspectives:
• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is higher amid weakness in the euro and British pound. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell, trading under 1.53%, with declines noted in other global government bond yields. Gold futures are up while silver futures are seeing declines, with gold trading around $1,795 per troy ounce and silver around $23.85 per troy ounce.
• Crude prices are up ahead of U.S. trading with U.S. crude trading around $79.50 per barrel and Brent around $81.05 per barrel. Futures posted steady gains in Asian action, with U.S. crude up $0.64 at $79.45 per barrel while Brent was up $0.49 at $81.03 per barrel.
• OPEC+ rejection puts solution to high oil price in Biden’s hands. Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies put oil prices in the hands of President Biden, rejecting his demands for a large bump in production and leaving him the choice of whether to tap America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve. After a meeting Thursday, the cartel approved a 400,000 barrel-per-day output hike for December. The U.S. asked for as much as double that amount. After the meeting, the White House reiterated it’ll consider “the full range of tools” to protect the economy. A White House official said the OPEC+ move risked the global recovery, and that the U.S. was prepared to move to lower prices.
• Incoming New York mayor wants to be paid in bitcoin. Mayor-elect Eric Adams announced he wants his first three paychecks in bitcoin. It’s part of his plan to make New York City the “center of the cryptocurrency industry.”
• A shortage of nitrogen fertilizer is forcing U.S. farmers to scale back their purchases of the product, Bloomberg reports (link). Disruptions to the supply of natural gas, a raw component of nitrogen-based fertilizer, is driving up the scarcity and price.
• A poor harvest of spring wheat and concern over the winter crop have pushed prices for the grain to their highest levels in years and signal more food inflation ahead. Drought across the Northern Hemisphere is the main culprit. Strong demand around the world, snarled supply lines and rising costs of farm inputs, like fertilizer and fuel, are contributing, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Meanwhile, after rising earlier this year, grain carloads on U.S. railroads fell 14.7% in September and 6% in October, according to the Association of American Railroads.
• Sweetener shift: The global energy crunch is putting focus on the sugar market as the world’s top exporters convert more cane into ethanol. Link for details via Bloomberg. The ICE active white sugar contract rose 1.2% in London on Monday, bringing this year’s gain to 22%. Raw sugar climbed 1.1% in New York. Both contracts surged in August when it became clear frosts would damage this year’s Brazilian crop.
• NWS weather: There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of northeastern Florida through Saturday morning... ...Rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies... ...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories from parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic.
Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:
• Soybeans face light follow-through selling, corn and wheat bounce
• Stronger jobs data expected this morning
• China’s damage control on food shortage scare continues
• Cattle pressure causes concern of repeat performance
• Hogs looking for a strong weekly close
POLICY FOCUS
— House signals votes on BBB, traditional infrastructure. Barring a final whip count going astray, the House is slated to vote today on both a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure (BIF) bill and the larger 2,135-page Build Back Better (BBB) package of social spending and climate measures.
The Joint Committee on Taxation said the revised House budget reconciliation bill (HR 5376) would raise taxes by $1.5 trillion over a decade on corporations and upper-income households, while providing tax breaks for families, clean energy, affordable housing and more worth roughly $560 billion. A separate nonpartisan agency, the Congressional Budget Office, had yet to publish a formal analysis of how much the bill would spend or how much revenue would be generated by other proposals, including a plan to lower the cost of prescription drugs and beef up the IRS’s ability to collect unpaid taxes.
The University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School assesses the BBB price tag would increase to almost $4 trillion if its provisions become permanent.
“We can’t go too far left. This is not a center left or a left country,” said Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) a Democrat, who has made clear he will not be swayed by whatever the House passes, he told CNN on Thursday.
Last minute changes were made to the SALT provision, with the cap increasing $10,000 to $80,00 through 2030 before returning to $10,000 in 2031.
Late changes were also made after negotiators struck a deal on drug pricing to provide an extra year — moving it from 12 years to 13 years — before Medicare is permitted to negotiate prices on biologics.
On immigration, House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) agreed to include a provision giving legal status — but not a pathway to citizenship — for undocumented immigrants who entered the U.S. before 2011, provided they pass a Homeland Security Department background check. Language is also included on “green card recapture,” which potentially gives permanent residency to as many as one million more immigrants. These provisions are unlikely to make it through the Senate. For the ag sector, hundreds of thousands of undocumented farmworkers could gain employment and travel authorization under provisions in House Democratic bill. The measure would cover several groups of undocumented immigrants besides farmworkers, including the so-called Dreamers and those who have been given temporary protected status.
Bottom line: Pelosi ruled out the possibility of voting first on the traditional infrastructure bill. The House is out of town next week and much of the Democratic leadership is going abroad, so there’s a push to do votes today or this weekend. Are the House votes in place? The whip count on the reconciliation bill remains unclear, but leaders have repeatedly asserted in the past that they will not bring either measure to the floor without the votes needed to pass. Whatever happens in the House, the Senate is likely to alter its version of the BBB package. The traditional infrastructure bill (BIF) would go to President Biden for his signature after House passage.
How to gauge today’s House events: The House will first debate the rule for BBB on the floor, a process expected to take an hour. Members then will vote on the rule and if it passes, as most expect, that is the sign that BBB will pass.
As for the Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said senators would strive to act on the BBB package “before Thanksgiving,” which falls on Nov. 25. But observers say that schedule appears ambitious currently. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) added that he’ll be “surprised if it (BBB) doesn’t change… If they send over a bill that has some challenges in it for rural America, then they’re going to have to take it back and work it over,” Tester said.
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION PERSONNEL
— Robert Santos confirmed to head Census Bureau, the first person of color to be agency’s permanent director. Santos, who is Hispanic, will take charge of the agency amid concerns that the 2020 Census undercounted minorities.
— Senate Ag panel advances CFTC chair nominee. The Senate Ag Committee voted Thursday to advance the nominee for chairman and commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The full Senate will now consider Rostin Behnam, the panel’s acting chair.
— Schumer files cloture on Robert Bonnie nomination for USDA post of undersecretary for farm production and conservation. The Senate is in recess next week for Veterans Day, but Bonnie’s nomination would likely be on the voting agenda the following week. Bonnie currently serves as deputy chief of staff and senior climate adviser at USDA.
CHINA UPDATE
— China’s property-debt crisis escalated as shares of Kaisa Group, a property developer, were suspended on Hong Kong’s stock exchange after one of its units missed a payment on a wealth-management product. After Evergrande, Kaisa has the heaviest offshore debt burden in China’s property sector. Reuters reported that Kaisa plans to sell assets worth $13 billion by the end of 2022 to stay afloat. Meanwhile, the WSJ reports China Evergrande raised more than $50 million last month by selling two of its jets, helping avert a default on the heavily indebted property developer’s dollar bonds.
— Xi, Biden likely to agree to reopen consulates. President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are likely to announce the reopening of consulates shuttered last year, Politico reported, which would be one of the biggest steps yet to repair ties fractured during the Trump administration. The two leaders, who are planning a virtual summit soon, are also likely to announce an easing of visa restrictions, the news outlet reported, citing sources it didn’t identify. The U.S. is also seeking to make progress on trade and climate issues, as well as start a bilateral nuclear weapons dialogue — something Beijing has resisted.
— China’s damage control on food shortage scare continues. China’s state planner tried to ensure consumers vegetable supplies in the country are sufficient to meet their needs and says efforts are being made to stabilize prices. Chinese consumers went into a panic after Beijing issued a stock-up warning for food and other daily necessities to citizens ahead of the coming winter season. Since then, a series of damage-control statements have been issued by Chinese government officials and offices.
TRADE POLICY
— Complex U.S./EU steel tariff deal could be difficult for smaller importers: WSJ. The deal struck between the U.S. and European Union (EU) to ease U.S. Section 232 metals duties and associated retaliatory tariffs could prove problematic for smaller steel importers, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Under the agreement, the U.S. will replace current steel and aluminum tariffs with a tariff rate quota (TRQ) pegged to historical import volumes. But WSJ notes “the system isn’t a single quota for steel and aluminum, but rather 54 distinct quotas for different types of steel as well as 16 quotas for different types of aluminum,” plus each EU member state will be assigned its own quota for each category based on historical trade levels. That means importers will need to “carefully track shipments to ensure they arrive before quotas kick in — giving an advantage to companies with the resources to monitor where quotas are still available, to handle complex documentation rules, and to arrange for carefully timed shipments that come in duty free,” WSJ said, citing comments from trade lawyers. As a result, smaller importers could face a much more difficult path to utilizing the TRQs compared with their larger counterparts.
The Coalition of American Metal Manufacturers and Users warned the plan could “allow for gaming of the system that could put this country’s smallest manufacturers at an even further disadvantage.”
Overall, U.S. steel industry interests and sectors targeted by EU retaliatory duties welcomed the agreement, while a key aluminum industry group said it would have preferred a phase out of the duties as opposed to a TRQ. The new quota system will take effect in January, and there will be an exemption process allowing companies to apply for an exemption from the remaining duties.
ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE
— Midwest governors query EPA on potential state level year-round E15 sales fix. A bipartisan group of Midwest governors are seeking guidance from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Michael Regan on provisions of the Clean Air Act (CAA) allowing them to request that the agency grant an exemption to Reid vapor pressure (RVP) volatility requirements for ethanol, which would again open the door to year-round sales of E15 (15% ethanol/85% gasoline) in their states.
The governors said they were “extremely disappointed” by the DC Circuit Court decision this summer that struck down EPA’s rule extending a 1-psi RVP waiver afforded to E10 (10% ethanol/90% gasoline) to E15 blends as well. The rule allowed nationwide sales of E15 during summer months — a long-sought policy goal of biofuel proponents — and the court decision represented a major setback for the sector. Since the ruling, biofuel interests and their supporters in Congress have been exploring a variety of ways to restore the RVP waiver through legislation and regulatory processes.
“Fuel marketers and retailers, renewable fuel producers, the USDA, and state governments have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in recent years to expand consumer access to low-cost, clean-burning fuels like E15,” the governors wrote in the Nov. 3 letter. “Not only does the recent court decision threaten to strand these public and private investments, but it also jeopardizes the progress we’ve made toward cleaning up our fuel supply and reducing emissions from transportation,” they warned.
In September, a group of farm-state Democrats pressed House and Senate leaders to include a slew of biofuel policy measures in the Build Back Better (BBB) budget reconciliation package, including provisions that would codify an extension of an RVP waiver for E15. Meanwhile, biofuel group Growth Energy petitioned the Supreme Court early last month to review the DC Circuit decision after the lower court denied their request for a rehearing of the case.
Some states have reportedly requested and secured approval of such an exemption, “meaning the recent court decision will not impact the ability of retailers in their states to sell E15 year-round,” the governors said. Section 211 requires the EPA administrator to promulgate rules enacting any request from a governor for the RVP exemption within 90 days of receiving it, the governors noted. Given that timeframe, the governors said it is their understanding that were they to make such a request, Regan “could promulgate rules acting on the request well before the 2022 summer high ozone season,” when restrictions on E15 sales would kick back in.
The seven Midwest governors signing the letter were Kim Reynolds (R-Iowa), Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), Doug Burgum (R-N.D.), Tim Walz (D-Minn.), Michael Parson (R-Mo.), Kristi Noem (R-S.D.) and Tony Evers (D-Wis.). A similar letter to Regan was sent October 13 by Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D).
Impacts. According to RFA, “a universal move from E10 to E15” across the eight states that have inquired about the 1-psi waiver exemption would boost ethanol consumption by almost 700 million gallons and increase corn demand by 225 million bushels.
LIVESTOCK, FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY
— Produce industry battling efforts to ban PLU stickers. The Produce Marketing Association (PMA) has issued comments on the value to the industry of PLU stickers or price look-up (PLU) codes on fresh produce, as some countries such as Spain are moving to reduce single-use plastic waste and non-compostable packaging. The sticker codes, administered by the International Federation for Produce Standards (IFPS), were started by PMA to ensure price accuracy in retail for loose fruits and vegetables and reduce the need for plastic packaging. “Identification on the stickers is the ONLY efficacious way to enable the continued offering of bulk produce in retail stores,” PMA said in comments. “Without this capacity, all produce will need to be packaged to capture the required produce identification thereby introducing additional packaging into the environment. These small stickers are one of the best options for reducing unnecessary single use packaging, allowing to sell fresh fruits and vegetables in bulk, directly to consumers,” PMA said. The group has been working with USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service to educate countries on the value of the labeling system.
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE
— Summary: Global cases of Covid-19 are at 248,720,500 with 5,032,099 deaths, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. case count is at 46,335,944 with 751,559 deaths. The Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center said that there have been 425,054,845 doses administered, 193,227,813 have been fully vaccinated, or 58.87% of the U.S. population.
— Europe is experiencing near-record levels of coronavirus infections, with 1.8 million new cases and about 24,000 deaths in the past week. “Europe is back at the epicenter of the pandemic — where we were one year ago,” said Dr. Hans Kluge, the WHO’s director for Europe. Europe could see 500,000 more covid deaths by February, with the WHO warning the continent is once again the “epicenter of the pandemic.” Though Portugal has jabbed nearly everyone eligible, in other countries, including France, the proportion vaccinated has stalled at under 70%. In eastern Europe it is lower still.
— Pfizer said its pill to treat Covid-19 had been found to be highly effective at preventing severe illness among at-risk people. The pill, which will be sold under the brand name Paxlovid, cut the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% when given within three days after the start of symptoms.
— Scientists identified a gene that doubles the risk of lung failure and death from Covid-19. Their research suggests that about 60% of people with South Asian ancestry carry the gene compared with 15% of those with European heritage. The difference may in part explain why Covid-19 has had a more devastating impact on some specific communities and in South Asia.
— Employers must require Covid-19 shots or tests by January 4 under rule. People who work at large businesses will need to show their vaccination cards or routinely test negative for Covid-19 under new Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSH) rules designed to curb the pandemic that President Joe Biden first previewed in September. Businesses with 100 workers or more will be required to verify all employees have been fully vaccinated or test negative for Covid-19 each week by Jan. 4, senior administration officials said. As many as 84 million people may fall under the new requirements.
Employers must give their workers paid time off to get fully vaccinated and sick leave to recoup from expected side effects like fatigue under the 490 pages of rules released Thursday. Businesses face a Dec. 5 deadline to ensure unvaccinated employees wear masks and provide for paid time off to get vaccinated.
The Biden administration also announced a separate rule to require workers in health care settings to get a Covid-19 vaccine as a condition of participating in Medicare and Medicaid.
OSHA could issue an approximate $14,000 fine to an employer for each violation of the rules, though those fines may be significantly increased under a massive social spending bill being negotiated in Congress. (An OSHA penalty is typically $13,653 for every serious violation but can be up to 10 times that amount if the regulator determines that the violation is willful or repeated.)
OSHA won’t be empowered to begin issuing fines until early January, giving major businesses nine more weeks to comply with the regulations. Major employer groups had pushed to delay the new regulations until next year, arguing an earlier deadline could lead to labor shortages during the winter holiday crush. Many groups opposed have met with administration officials in recent weeks.
In September, Biden announced the new plans for major employers and health care settings, as well as federal workers and contractors, who have until about Dec. 8 to receive a shot.
Twenty attorneys general have launched legal challenges to the requirement that federal contractors require vaccinations, and more legal challenges are likely to be kicked up by the new mandate for large employers. Former OSHA officials are confident the regulations will be upheld in the courts.
Thirty-nine Republican senators announced Wednesday that they would push to nullify the OSHA regulations through a rarely used joint resolution of disapproval. But that effort is likely to fall short while Democrats are in the majority in both the House and Senate.
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Virginia gubernatorial election. The Washington Post reports (link) that on Tuesday, Virginia voters “signaled a Republican shift in almost every corner of the state.” Glenn Youngkin (R-Va.) “won by more votes than his Republican predecessor did in 2017 — or lost by fewer — in all but about a half-dozen of the state’s 133 counties. Youngkin chipped away at Democratic leads in strongholds like urban and non-White areas.” The Post adds, “Driving those changes: whopping increases in the raw number of Virginians who voted — 1 million more voters than when” Terry McAuliffe (D-Va.) “was on the ballot in 2013.” Nate Cohn, for the New York Times, reports (link) Youngkin “won by making broad gains over Democrats in every part of the state and, apparently, across every demographic group. He gained in the cities, the suburbs and rural areas. He gained in the east and west. He made inroads in precincts with both white and nonwhite voters.”
— New Jersey pollster apologizes: “I blew it.” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute on the Jersey Shore, wrote an op-ed for the (Newark) Star-Ledger (link) apologizing for a poll six days before the election that said Gov. Phil Murphy “maintains a sizable lead” over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. The poll had Murphy up by 11. The razor-thin race wasn’t called until Wednesday evening. Murray, who has headed polling since 2005, writes that if you’re “a Republican who believes the polls cost Ciattarelli an upset victory or a Democrat who feels we lulled your base into complacency, feel free to vent. I hear you.”
— Trump dossier: A Russia analyst who served as a central source for a dossier of opposition research material about former President Donald Trump, compiled by former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele, was arrested and charged with lying to the FBI, according to an indictment unsealed Thursday.
OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE
— White House: Biden ‘perfectly comfortable’ paying separated families. A White House spokeswoman said President Biden’s denial a day ago referred to the size of payouts, not to payouts themselves. “If it saves taxpayer dollars and puts the disastrous history of the previous administration’s use of zero tolerance and family separation behind us, the president is perfectly comfortable with the Department of Justice settling with the individuals and families who are currently in litigation with the U.S. government,” spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said.
Background: In an exchange with a Fox reporter on Wednesday, a number of $450,000 was cited, prompting Biden’s denial that such payments would be made. “It’s not true,” he said. Jean-Pierre on Thursday suggested the dollar amounts under consideration were smaller but didn’t say how much money Biden would be comfortable seeing the U.S. government pay separated immigrant families. About 940 claims have been filed so far by families that were separated, and gov’t officials aren’t sure how many more will come forward or prove eligible under the potential settlement.
— Biden approves Saudi weapons deal. The Biden administration approved a $650 million weapons sale to Saudi Arabia on Thursday, the first major weapons sale to Riyadh during the Biden presidency, which began with a freeze on sales to both the kingdom and the United Arab Emirates. In a statement the U.S. Department of Defense said the sale would help “improve the security of a friendly country that continues to be an important force for political and economic progress in the Middle East.”
— CHS income soars. The company, the largest U.S. agricultural cooperative, reported net income of $554 million in the year ending on Aug. 31, up 31% from the previous year due to high commodity and fertilizer prices.
EVENTS AND REPORTS
Friday, Nov. 5
· Antimicrobial resistance and Covid. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Antimicrobial Resistance and Climate Change: Implications for Policy and Practice in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs).”
· Census issues. Census Bureau teleconference of the National Advisory Committee to address policy, research, and technical issues relating to a full range of Census Bureau programs and activities, including decennial, economic, field operations, information technology, and statistics.
· Travel and tourism issues. International Trade Administration teleconference of the United States Travel and Tourism Advisory Board.
· Politics and elections. New York University, Washington, D.C. virtual discussion on “Inside American Politics 2021.”
· Economic reports. Employment | Consumer Credit
· Energy reports. Baker-Hughes Rig Count | ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | India Energy Forum by CERAWeek
· USDA reports. ERS: Livestock and Meat International Trade Data | US Agricultural Trade Data Update NASS: Peanut Prices