Harris Baits Trump and Puts Him on Defense in Debate Short on Policy Specifics

Syngenta to reduce 150 positions; Deere agrees to pay $9.93 million to settle SEC charges

•

September 11, 2024 08:30 AM

News/Markets/Policy Updates: Sept. 11, 2024

— The House will hold a moment of silence this morning in recognition of the anniversary of the Sept. 11 terror attacks. Nearly 3,000 people were killed when hijackers crashed planes into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and a field in Pennsylvania.

— The first and perhaps only presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in Philadelphia saw Harris set an assertive tone from the start, crossing the stage to shake Trump’s hand and introduce herself before the debate began. This power move seemed to catch Trump off guard and set the stage for Harris to control much of the conversation throughout the night.

Economy
• Harris criticized Trump’s economic policies, particularly his tariffs, arguing they would effectively create a sales tax on the middle class.
• Trump touted low inflation during his presidency, while Harris incorrectly pointed to record-high inflation under the Trump administration.
• Harris pivoted frequently repeated her proposals to give tax breaks to small businesses and increase the supply of housing.
• Harris: “Donald Trump actually has no plan for you. Because he is more interested in defending himself than he is in looking out for you.”
• Trump: “She doesn’t have a plan. She copied Biden’s plan, and it’s like four sentences like, ‘Run, Spot, run,’ four sentences that are just, ‘Oh, we’ll try and lower taxes.’ She doesn’t have a plan.”
• Harris did not answer a key question: “Are Americans better off today than they were four years ago?”

Abortion Rights. This was a major point of contention:
• Harris strongly defended abortion rights, arguing the government should not dictate women’s healthcare decisions.
• Trump claimed credit for overturning Roe v. Wade but said he would not sign a national abortion ban.
• Harris accused Trump of wanting to enact a national ban, which he denied.

Immigration
• Trump focused heavily on border security and illegal immigration. At one point, he made a baseless claim about immigrants eating pets, which Harris quickly refuted. Debate moderator David Muir told Trump that the network had checked with Springfield City Manager Bryan Heck, who said there are no reports of pets being harmed by immigrants. When again told it wasn’t true, Trump said: “But the people on television say their dog was eaten by the people that went there.”
• Trump aggressively pinned Harris to the Biden-era migrant crisis, reiterating his unsupported claim that the administration is allowing people from prisons, mental institutions and “insane asylums” to enter the country illegally. “They’re coming in, and they’re taking jobs that are occupied right now by African-Americans and Hispanics and also unions,” Trump asserted. “They’re going in violently. These are the people that she and Biden let into our country, and they’re destroying our country.”
• Trump made several inaccurate claims about immigrants during the debate, including the suggestion that the equivalent of the population of the state of New York (20 million people) have entered the country since President Biden took office. The Wall Street Journal’s recent analysis has found that about 10 million immigrants have come to the U.S. in the past four years, though a large chunk of those are people who entered on Green Cards or other visas.

Democracy and the 2020 election
• Harris repeatedly called out Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election, stating “Donald Trump was fired by 81 million people.” She accused him of presiding over the worst attack on American democracy since the Civil War, referring to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

Trade
• Harris: “The Trump administration resulted in a trade deficit — one of the highest we’ve ever seen in the history of America.” That is mostly false. At its largest, the trade deficit for goods and services under Trump was about $654 billion in 2020. That’s larger than most post-World War II presidents, but Harris glosses over that the final four years under President George W. Bush each produced a larger trade deficit than Trump’s biggest. And the trade deficit has been even bigger under the Biden/Harris administration. In each of the first three years under Biden and Harris, from 2021 to 2023, the trade deficit has been larger than it was during Trump’s worst year. It set a record in 2022.
• Harris called Trump’s trade policy proposal to raise tariffs a “Trump sales tax.”
• Harris outlined her approach to trade:
— Focus on relationships with allies.
— Support America’s workforce to protect workers’ rights.
— Invest in American technology to secure the U.S. position in AI and quantum computing.
— Advocate for more targeted restrictions on China in collaboration with U.S. allies.
• Trump defended his trade policies:
— Proposed increasing tariffs, including blanket tariffs of 10% to 20% and additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on Chinese imports.
— Claimed his administration had collected “billions and billions of dollars” from China through tariffs.
— Argued that other countries would “finally pay us for everything we’ve done for the world.”
— Stated that higher prices would be faced by China and other countries “ripping us off,” not American consumers.
— Trump also pointed out that the Biden/Harris administration has kept most of his tariffs in place, saying they “never took the tariffs off because it brought in so much money.”

Harris policy flip-flops
• Harris was pressed by the moderators on the many issues she has reversed positions on since her unsuccessful campaign for the 2020 Democratic nomination. She said she would respond, but did not.
• Harris denied that she would impose a ban on fracking — an important issue to voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where the debate was held — continuing to walk back comments she made as a Democratic presidential candidate in 2019.

Health care
• Trump was asked about his repeated criticism of the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) and whether he had an alternative plan to offer. “I have a concept of a plan,” he said.

Russia/Ukraine war
• Trump refused to answer whether he wanted Ukraine to win its war against Russia. He touted his ability to negotiate a peace deal between the two countries and asserted that Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine because he doesn’t respect Biden. Trump added the hypothetical assertion that Putin wouldn’t have gone through with the invasion if he were in office. Harris said the Ukraine war would end quickly under Trump because he would “just give it up” to Putin, who, she told Trump, “would eat you for lunch.”

Afghanistan
• Harris defended Biden’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and said that Trump had cut a bad deal with the Taliban.

Debate strategies
• Harris employed her prosecutorial background, pressing Trump on various issues and fact-checking his statements in real-time. She frequently pivoted from attacking Trump to addressing voters directly about their concerns.
• Trump attempted to portray Harris as an out-of-touch liberal, while Harris sought to paint Trump as self-absorbed and lacking the temperament for the presidency.

Notable moments
• Trump pressed Harris on why she hadn’t enacted any of her policies during the current administration: “I just ask one simple question, why didn’t she do it?” he asked.
• Trump grew visibly irritated when Harris criticized attendance at his rallies. “I’m going to do something unusual and invite you to one of Donald Trump’s rallies,” Harris said, mocking Trump’s campaign events. Trump grew irritated when the vice president suggested that people leave his political rallies early out of boredom. He responded by attacking her rally turnout and touting his own, and by claiming that America is on the verge of World War III and its citizens are living in squalor under the Biden/Harris administration.
• Harris brought up Trump’s criminal convictions when he complained about “migrant crime.”
• Immigration controversy: Trump made a baseless claim about immigrants eating pets, which Harris (and ABC’s David Muir) quickly refuted.
• Personal attacks: Harris criticized attendance at Trump’s rallies, while Trump called Harris a “Marxist” and claimed Biden “hates her.”
• After repeated attempts by Trump to tie her to Biden, Harris reminded Trump: “You’re not running against Joe Biden, you’re running against me.”
• “She’s a Marxist. Everybody knows she’s a Marxist.” — Donald Trump, attacking Harris’ political ideology.
• Trump was asked to revisit previous comments he made questioning Harris’s racial identity, saying, “I couldn’t care less. Whatever she wants to be is okay with me.” Harris responded that it is a tragedy that Trump has used “race to try to divide” the country.

• Bottom line: They both spent so much time refuting claims made by the other rather than answering questions from the moderators.

Post-debate impact
• In a significant development after the debate, pop star Taylor Swift announced she would vote for Harris, potentially influencing her large fanbase.
• The debate was seen as a crucial opportunity for both candidates to make their case to voters, with the election just 55 days away and polls showing a tight race.
• Harris “got the debate she wanted,” said election analyst Nate Silver.
• “Donald Trump was fired": Harris repeatedly used this phrase, stating “Donald Trump was fired by 81 million people” in reference to the 2020 election results.
• Trump supporters expressed some dissatisfaction with the moderation: Newsweek reported that “Donald Trump and his supporters took aim at David Muir and Linsey Davis” after the debate, with some MAGA supporters claiming it was “Three on One.”
• Harris’ aggressive offense strategy put Trump on the defensive for much of the debate.
• “This was a debate of social media memes more than in-depth policy analysis,” Paul Donovan, the chief global economist for UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote to clients today.
• Elon Musk, one of the former president’s most prominent backers, wrote, “While I don’t think the debate hosts were fair to @realDonaldTrump, @KamalaHarris exceeded most people’s expectations tonight.” He later added that Trump would better help business and streamline government.
• Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report: “At the end of the 90-minute debate, Harris had effectively presented a positive, confident and forward-looking message. Trump, meanwhile, struggled to make a coherent and comprehensive case against her.”
• The political prediction market PredictIt showed a steady increase in bets on a Harris victory over the course of the debate. Meanwhile, shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Trump’s social network whose stock tends to track his political fortunes, were down sharply in premarket trading today.
• Another debate? In a sign of how good Harris’s camp believed the night went for them, her campaign immediately demanded another debate. Trump suggested Harris is only pressing for a second debate “because the loser always asks for a rematch… I won the debate … I don’t know if I want to do another debate.”
• A CNN exit poll showed 63% of people who watched the forum said Harris won.
• There are 55 days left before Election Day.

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 180 points lower and then went a lot lower. In Asia, Japan -1.5%. Hong Kong -0.7%. China -0.8%. India -0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.3%.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow was down 92.63 points, 0.23%, at 40,736.96. The Nasdaq gained 141.28 points, 0.84%, at 17,025.88. The S&P 500 gained 24.47 points, 0.45%, at 5,495.52.

— Syngenta, owned by China, announced plans to reduce 150 positions at its Basel, Switzerland, headquarters in 2024, citing economic challenges in its crop protection business. The job cuts come as the company grapples with a 17% drop in sales and a 36% decline in core operating profits in the first half of 2024. Other markets may also face reductions to enhance competitiveness.

Syngenta has experienced a substantial downturn in its financial performance in 2024:
• Sales dropped by 17% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
• Core operating profits (EBITDA) declined by 36% in the first half of 2024.
• The company’s crop protection business, which accounts for about 40% of total sales, saw a 21% decrease in sales, reaching $6.2 billion in the first half of 2024.

— Deere agreed to pay $9.93 million to settle SEC charges that a subsidiary in Thailand offered massage parlor services and other improper gifts to win business. Link for more via Reuters.

Background. From 2017 through 2020, Wirtgen Thailand, a subsidiary of a German road construction company acquired by Deere in late 2017, plied members of the Royal Thai Air Force and the agencies responsible for the country’s highways and rural roads with cash, sham consulting fees and other gifts — including a set of golf clubs — the SEC said. The misconduct took place before Deere had fully integrated its acquisition of Wirtgen Group into its compliance program.

Deere’s response. “These allegations represent a clear violation of our company policies and ethical standards,” a spokeswoman said in a statement. “The individuals involved in this matter are no longer with the company.” Deere cooperated with the SEC’s investigation and took steps to strengthen its compliance program, including by launching a bimonthly compliance newsletter and podcast, the SEC said.

— Combine, tractor sales slump. Sales of four-wheel-drive tractors rose marginally in August, but sales of self-propelled combines and two-wheel-drive tractors were down by more than 19% compared to August 2023. Link for details.

— Ag markets today: Corn and soybean futures rebounded from Tuesday’s losses, while wheat showed followthrough price strength during the overnight session. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading mostly 2 cents higher, soybeans were 8 to 9 cents higher and wheat futures were 2 to 5 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index was around 250 points lower, and front-month crude oil futures were more than $1.50 higher this morning.

Cash cattle below year-ago. Last week’s average cash cattle price of $181.18 was $1.10 below year-ago, the first time the cash market traded below the corresponding week from the previous year since spring 2021. Wholesale beef prices dropped 29 cents for Choice to $308.23 and $1.48 for Select to $297.01 on Tuesday. Choice beef prices remained modestly above last year.

Cash hog index, pork cutout weaken. The CME lean hog index is down another 18 cents to $85.56 as of Sept. 9. The pork cutout fell 92 cents on Tuesday to $94.80 as losses in hams, picnics and bellies more than offset gains in the other cuts. Movement jumped to 434.3 loads, signaling strong underlying retailer demand on the price weakness.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: December corn futures fell 3 cents to $4.04 1/4 and near the session low.
• Soy complex: November soybeans fell 20 3/4 cents to $9.97 1/4. December soymeal ended $7.20 lower at $317.80 and December soyoil closed down 92 points at 39.56 cents.
• Wheat: December SRW futures climbed 5 3/4 cents to $5.74 1/4, settling near mid-range. December HRW futures rallied 8 1/4 cents to $5.84, while December spring wheat rose 3 1/4 cents to $6.10.
• Cotton: December cotton rose 52 points to 68.21 cents, nearer the session high.
• Cattle: October live cattle futures dipped 65 cents to $176.275 and settled nearer session lows. October feeder cattle futures climbed 72.5 cents to $235.45.
• Hogs: October lean hogs fell 25 cents to $78.55, nearer the session low and hit a three-week low.

— U.S. inflation slows to 2.5% in August, lowest since February 2021. Inflation continued its decline in August, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 2.5% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 2.6%. This marks the lowest inflation rate since February 2021, though it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, held steady at 3.2%. Both headline and core inflation increased slightly month-over-month by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Housing costs accounted for more than 70% of the year-over-year increase in core prices. Food inflation continued to ease in August. Overall, food prices climbed 0.1% over the month, slightly down from 0.2% in July. Grocery prices were flat over the month after they rose 0.1% in July.

Of note: The data does little in terms of expectations for the Fed meeting conclusion Sept. 18 where a 25-basis-point reduction in the Fed funds rate is expected.

— U.S. mortgage rates hit lowest levels since February 2023, boosting homebuyer interest and refinancing. U.S. mortgage rates fell to 6.29% last week, the lowest since February 2023, driving a surge in home-purchase and refinancing applications. The sixth consecutive weekly rate drop has encouraged more buyers to enter a real estate market still facing tight inventory and high prices.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker amid strength in the euro, British pound, and Swiss franc. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was lower, trading around 3.62%, with a negative tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures continued to move higher ahead of U.S. gov’t inventory data, with U.S. crude around $67.20 per barrel and Brent around $70.55 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were moving higher ahead of inflation data, with gold around $2,550 per troy ounce and silver around $29.16 per troy ounce.

— $3.555: Average per-gallon price for diesel fuel across the U.S. the week ending Sept. 9, down seven cents from the week before to the lowest level since the week of Oct. 4, 2021, according to the Energy Information Administration.

— Crude oil prices fell to their lowest since December 2021 as OPEC lowered its global demand growth forecasts and concerns about China’s economic slowdown intensified. West Texas Intermediate dropped below $67 a barrel, while Brent crude hit a 52-week low of $69.19. Weak demand in China and potential disruptions from Tropical Storm Francine also impacted the market.

— Ag trade update: Japan purchased 8,370 MT of feed wheat. Egypt purchased 69,700 MT of optional origin sunflower oil and delayed the deadline for offers in its tender to purchase sugar.

— NWS outlook: Hurricane Francine is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana later this evening with damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and torrential rainfall... ...A round of moderate to heavy rain with high-elevation snow forecast throughout the northern Rockies... ...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin and portions of the High Plains.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Grains firmer overnight
• Francine gathers strength as it nears landfall in Louisiana
• UK economy remains stagnant in July

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

— An Israeli official has suggested offering safe passage out of Gaza for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, conditional on the release of the remaining 101 hostages held in Gaza. Sinwar, accused of orchestrating the Oct. 7 attack that killed 1,200 people in Israel and led to the abduction of over 250 hostages, is also facing charges from U.S. prosecutors. The proposal includes demilitarizing and deradicalizing Gaza to potentially recover the region and end the conflict. Hamas has not yet responded to the offer.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— Ukrainian grain exports surpass 8 MMT for 2024-25 season. Ukrainian grain exports for the 2024-25 season have reached 8.2 million metric tons (MMT) as of Sept. 11, according to the Agriculture Ministry. This includes 4.3 MMT of wheat, 2.5 MMT of corn, and 1.2 MMT of barley. September shipments have totaled 849,000 metric tons, up from 783,000 during the same period last year.

PERSONNEL

— John Newton has departed from his role as chief economist for the Senate Agriculture Committee minority staff under ranking member John Boozman of Arkansas. His last day in that position was Tuesday, Sept. 10. No information yet on where Newton is going next or what his future plans are after leaving the Senate Agriculture Committee. Newton had joined the committee as chief economist in 2021. Prior to that role, he worked for the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), where he served as chief economist starting in 2018 after previously being the director of market intelligence for two years. Before joining AFBF, Newton was the chief economist for the National Milk Producers Federation.

CHINA UPDATE

— China’s EV sales surge as overall vehicle sales remain weak. China’s vehicle sales dropped by 5.0% from a year earlier to 2.45 million units in August, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). Sales of new energy vehicles surged 30.02% to 1.1 million units, accounting for 44.8% of total car sales in August.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— Iowa Republican lawmakers to challenge controversial pipeline approval in court. A group of nearly 40 Iowa Republican lawmakers plans to sue both federal and state courts, claiming that the Iowa Utilities Commission acted illegally and unconstitutionally in approving the $8 billion Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline. The project, which would connect 57 ethanol plants across several states, has faced opposition due to concerns over safety, property rights, and eminent domain. The lawmakers, calling themselves the Republican Legislative Intervenors for Justice, are also exploring legislative actions to halt the pipeline and reform regulatory processes.

— Vilsack again warns of export risks if 45Z tax credits are limited to U.S. feedstocks. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack cautioned that restricting 45Z tax credits to U.S. feedstocks for sustainable aviation fuel could hurt U.S. food and agricultural exports. The Biden administration is set to issue regulations for the $1.75-per-gallon tax credits before the Biden administration ends. While some advocate limiting the credits to domestic feedstocks, Vilsack repeated his prior warnings that such restrictions could lead other countries to impose similar measures on U.S. exports. USDA is also exploring farming practices that reduce carbon intensity to qualify for credits.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Vilsack to testify on food aid delivery failures impacting tribes and seniors. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack and officials will testify before Congress on delays in food aid deliveries to tribal nations and seniors in eight states. Vilsack is expected to admit awareness of the issue since May, following a failed contract that led to the shortages.

KEY LINKS