GREET Details Finally Near But is Info Just a ‘Placeholder’ for More Changes Ahead?

FOMC decision and Powell presser Wed. | Jobs report Friday

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April 29, 2024 05:51 AM

FOMC decision and Powell presser Wed. | Jobs report Friday

Washington Focus

Both chambers are in as hearings on fiscal year 2025 accelerate with a host of Biden administration officials testifying.

EPA Administrator Michael Regan will testify before House and Senate panels and will be asked about Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), increasing EPA regulations (WOTUS, power plants, etc.) and other topics.

The economic front includes a May 1 FOMC announcement, but it will be the follow-on presser by Chairman Jerome Powell that takes on more importance. It will be what he says and doesn’t say that will capture attention. On Friday another Employment report comes, with focus on the unemployment rate and number of jobs to help determine if a downturn in the U.S. economy is ahead.

— The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative will hold a hearing Thursday on objectives and strategies that advance U.S. supply chain resilience in trade negotiations, enforcement, and other initiatives.

Chief U.S. Ag Trade Negotiator Doug McKalip today will address a meeting of the National Farm Broadcasting (NAFB) which will likely see him face questions on the U.S./Mexico dispute over GMO corn, the dairy battles with Canada, and overall agricultural trade issues.

— The head of Chrysler has warned that tampering with the U.S-Mexico trade agreement risked making pick-up trucks unaffordable for Americans, after a suggestion from Donald Trump that he could curtail imports across the southern border if re-elected. Trump hinted he would prevent cars built by Chinese companies coming in from Mexico if he became president again, in response to China’s BYD planning a new electric vehicle plant south of the U.S. border. “You’re not going to be able to sell those cars if I get elected,” Trump told a rally last month in Ohio. He has separately suggested imposing tariffs of 50-100% on Chinese models coming into the U.S.

Big impacts. Carlos Tavares, who heads Stellantis — the owner of the Chrysler, Jeep and RAM brands — said breaking the U.S-Mexico-Canada Agreement would be a “lose-lose” scenario. He said that on top of higher car prices, such a move would flood the US with even higher numbers of Mexican immigrants. “The first obvious consequence is huge inflation… because if you stop the sourcing of the most cost-competitive products … your costs go through the roof, and then your price goes through the roof,” he said. “Then the middle class cannot buy pick-up trucks anymore.” The second issue, he added, was “what you do with the Mexicans that have no more jobs.”

— It seems like President Biden is open to a debate with Donald Trump, which marks a significant change from his previous hesitance. The setting for Biden’s announcement, on Howard Stern’s radio show, appears strategically chosen to connect with a broader, possibly more working-class audience. This approach echoes Hillary Clinton’s reflections on how appearing on Stern’s show might have helped her with similar voter demographics in 2016.

The response from Trump’s campaign was immediate and affirmative, suggesting eagerness to arrange the debate. This development could shape the political landscape significantly, engaging both candidates’ bases and potentially swaying undecided voters.

Hearings & Other Events

Monday, April 29

Agricultural trade issues. Chief U.S. Ag Trade Negotiator Doug McKalip will provide remarks at the National Association of Radio Farm Directors’ (NAFB) Washington Watch.
Center for American Progress webinar, “A Progressive, Principled, and Pragmatic Approach Toward China Policy.”
CFTC session. Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds a meeting to consider final rule: capital and financial reporting requirements for swap dealers and major swap participants and final rule: adopting amendments to the large trader reporting rules for futures and options.
NATO Summit preview. The Atlantic Council holds a discussion on “A back-to-business birthday: Priorities for the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington.”
Red Sea situation. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) holds a virtual discussion on “Turmoil in the Red Sea: Assessing the Houthis’ strategic agenda.”
LNG export outlook. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a discussion on “The Future of U.S. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) Exports.”

Tuesday, April 30

FY 2025 Budget: EPA. House Appropriations Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “FY 2025 Request for the Environmental Protection Agency.” EPA Administrator Michael Regan testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Transportation. House Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “FY 2025 Request for the Department of Transportation.” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Customs and Border Protection. House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing on “FY 2025 Request for Customs and Border Protection.” Acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Troy Miller testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Education. Senate Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “A Review of the President’s 2025 Budget Request for the Department of Education.” Education Secretary Miguel Cardona testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Treasury. House Ways and Means Committee hearing on “The President’s FY 2025 Budget Request and Treasury Green Book.” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Defense. House Armed Services Committee hearing on “Department of Defense FY 2025 Budget Request.” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin testifies.
FY 2025 Budget – HUD. Senate Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on the FY 2025 Housing and Urban Development budget. Acting HUD Secretary Adrienne Todman testifies.
Fruit and vegetable supply chains. The Farm Foundation holds a virtual forum on “Unwrapping Packings Regulations Impacting Agricultural Trade and Sustainability,” focusing on fruit and vegetable supply chains.
OMB oversight. House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing on “A Focus on Management: Oversight of the Office of Management and Budget.” Deputy OMB Director for Management Jason Miller testifies.
Transportation electrification. House Transportation and Infrastructure Highways and Transit Subcommittee hearing on “It’s Electric: A Review of Fleet Electrification Efforts.”
Environmentalists impact on Department of Interior. House Natural Resources Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing on “Examining the Influence of Extreme Environmental Activist Groups in the Department of the Interior.”
AM radio. House Energy and Commerce Innovation, Data, and Commerce Subcommittee hearing on the “AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act of 2024.”
Global food insecurity. The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) holds a discussion on “Bringing Peace to a Troubled World,” focusing on “current challenges of war, global food insecurity, and conflict management.”
U.S./China competition. Washington Post Live holds a virtual book discussion, beginning at 2 p.m., on “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century.”
U.S./Taiwan policy. Senate Foreign Relations East Asia, the Pacific and International Cybersecurity Policy Subcommittee hearing on “US Policy on Taiwan.”

Wednesday, May 1

FY 2025 Budget: EPA. Senate Appropriations Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “A Review of the President’s FY 2025 Budget Request for the Environmental Protection Agency.” EPA Administrator Michael Regan testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: USDA Farm Production and Conservation. House Appropriations Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies hearing on “FY 2025 Budget Request for the USDA’s Farm Production and Conservation Mission Area.” USDA Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation Robert Bonnie and other officials testify.
FY 2025 Budget: Interior. House Natural Resources Committee hearing on “Examining the President’s FY 2025 Budget Request for the Department of the Interior.” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Energy. House Energy and Commerce Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee hearing on “The FY2025 Department of Energy Budget.” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: HUD. House Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on FY 2025 Request for the Department of Housing and Urban Development.” Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman testifies.
Big oil and climate change. Senate Budget Committee hearing on “Denial, Disinformation, and Doublespeak: Big Oil’s Evolving Efforts to Avoid Accountability for Climate Change.”
Labor Department oversight. House Education and the Workforce Committee hearing on “Examining the Policies and Priorities of the Department of Labor.” Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su testifies.
U.S./Taiwan relations. House Foreign Relations Indo-Pacific Subcommittee hearing on “From 1979 to 2024: Evaluating the Taiwan Relations Act and Assessing the Future of U.S./Taiwan Relations.”
Small businesses. The House Small Business Committee holds a small business showcase featuring small business owners invited by members of Congress to highlight the work of small businesses and their importance to America’s economy, part of Small Business Week.
International Fresh Produce Association conference on doing business and engaging with customers, with consumer insights from IFPA research and industry experts. In Phoenix.

Thursday, May 2

USTR supply chain review. Office of the U.S. Trade Representative holds a hearing on objectives and strategies that advance U.S. supply chain resilience in trade negotiations, enforcement, and other initiatives.
FY 2025 Budget: Interior. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on “The President’s Budget Request for the U.S. Department of the Interior for FY 2025.” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Transportation. Senate Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “A Review of the President’s FY 2025 Budget Request for the U.S. Department of Transportation.” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg testifies.
Shrinkflation. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “Higher Prices: How Shrinkflation and Technology Impact Consumers’ Finances.”
Broadband affordability. Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Communications, Media, and Broadband Subcommittee hearing on the future of broadband affordability.

Friday, May 3

Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee participate in aa panel discussion.
Land in rural America. The Brookings Institution holds a book discussion on “The Lies of the Land: Seeing Rural America for What It Is - and Isn’t,” as part of the On the Front Porch series.

Economic Reports and Events for the Week

Focus is on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting announcements and Friday’s jobs report. Investors will look for more direction on whether the economy is heating or cooling. The interest rate policy statement from the FOMC will be watched more for any changes, with futures trading implying a 97% probability that interest rates will be kept at their current levels. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Q&A will also be closely watched for any hints on when the Fed might consider its first rate cut of the cycle.

Monday, April 29

Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

Tuesday, April 30

Wednesday, May 1

Thursday, May 2

Friday, May 3

Employment
PMI Composite Final
ISM Services Index

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

Weather in the U.S. is now the main focus as too-wet conditions are delaying some corn plantings, with more rain in the forecast this week. Friday brings the UN Food and Agriculture Organization monthly Food Price Index.

Monday, April 29

Ag reports and events: