FOMC Announcement Wednesday

Key to new farm bill timeline: whether additional funding is provided

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June 12, 2023 04:41 AM

Key to new farm bill timeline: whether additional funding is provided

Washington Focus

This week in Washington both the House and Senate are in session, with the House taking a break on Friday.

Appropriations work resumes, focusing on the National Defense Authorization Act and the potential markups of the fiscal year (FY) 2024 appropriations for Agriculture and FDA. Agriculture issues being discussed include USDA rural development efforts, farm bill research titles, and competition in the U.S. meat processing industry.

House GOP leadership plans to reintroduce a group of bills that were blocked last week by far-right lawmakers. The bills include the REINS Act, which allows Congress to block regulations before they take effect, and legislation concerning gas stoves. An additional measure to stop new regulations on pistol braces has been added to the lineup. The House Rules Committee will discuss a new rule for floor debate on Monday.

The House Ways and Means Committee will address a tax bill package this week. It includes extensions for business expensing and bonus depreciation, a new 60% tax on U.S. farmland purchases by individuals and entities from China and other designated countries, and a rollback of incentives for clean energy and electric vehicles, seen by some as a jab at President Biden’s climate plan. The White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, criticized the package for benefiting large corporations and increasing energy costs on American families. However, the Joint Committee on Taxation doesn’t expect the farmland tax will raise any significant revenue.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its meeting on June 14, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a post-meeting press conference. The expectation is for the Fed to maintain the current target range for the Fed funds rate at 5% to 5.25%. The probabilities for a rate hike in July currently stand at 52%. Apart from the rate decision, updated forecasts from Fed officials will be released for further analysis.

Hearings and events of note include:

Monday, June 12

* Zero emissions vehicles. Resources for the Future (RFF) holds a virtual workshop on “Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandates: Research for Effective, Efficient, and Equitable Policy Implementation.” Runs through Tuesday.

* Global energy transition. The Atlantic Council holds a virtual discussion on “Planning the energy transition: Global perspectives,” focusing on the U.S., EU, Australia and Canada.

* Water issues. The American Water Works Association holds the ACE23 conference with the theme “The Future of Water is 2050.” Runs through Wednesday.

* Climate issues. Citizens’ Climate Lobby holds its 2023 Climate Lobbying Reboot Conference. Runs through Tuesday.

* El Niño impacts. The Wilson Center holds a virtual discussion on “The Significance of the Coming El Niño: Understanding the Science and Preparing for its Impacts.”

* EV regulations. The Heritage Foundation holds a discussion on “The Big Government Car Theft,” focusing on electric car regulations.

* Biological hazards. The Idaho National Laboratory and the Homeland Security Department Science and Technology Directorate hold a virtual BEST-BIO (Built Environment Surveillance Testbed - Biological Hazards) summit.

* Supply chains. The Atlantic Council holds a discussion on “Closer to home: Bringing supply chains back to the Americas.”

* U.S./India ideas summit. The U.S./India Business Council holds its 48th annual India Ideas Summit, with the theme “Trust, Resilience and Growth.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivers remarks. Runs through Tuesday.

Tuesday, June 13

* Competition in meat processing. House Judiciary Administrative State, Regulatory Reform, and Antitrust Subcommittee hearing on “Where’s the Beef? Regulatory Barriers to Entry and Competition in Meat Processing.”

* USDA rural development programs. House Agriculture Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development Subcommittee hearing on “Stakeholder Perspectives on USDA’s Rural Development Programs.”

* FDA issues. The Washington International Trade Association (WITA) holds a virtual FDA Boot Camp event on “New Cosmetics Regulations and the Latest on Food, Drugs and Medical Devices,” the second of a three-part series.

* International Financial System testimony. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “The Annual Testimony of the Secretary of the Treasury on the State of the International Financial System.” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to testify.

* Water issues. Second day of the American Water Works Association ACE23 conference with the theme “The Future of Water is 2050.” Sessions Tuesday focus on cybersecurity. Runs through Wednesday.

* U.S./India ideas summit. Final day of the U.S./India Business Council 48th annual India Ideas Summit, with the theme “Trust, Resilience and Growth.”

* Digital issues. Punchbowl News holds an interview on “digital equity and opportunity.”

* Climate issues. Final day of the Citizens’ Climate Lobby 2023 Climate Lobbying Reboot Conference.

* Immigration reform. Washington Post Live holds a virtual discussion with Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) about “proposed immigration reforms, how being born in Miami to Cuban exiles has shaped her legislative path and the political environment in Florida ahead of the 2024 presidential election.”

* FERC oversight. House Energy and Commerce Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission): Adhering to a Mission of Affordable and Reliable Energy for America.”

* U.S./China communications. The United States Institute of Peace discussion on “U.S./China Crisis Communications in Dire Straits: How Can Washington and Beijing Manage the Risk of Conflict?”

* CFPB report to Congress. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Semi-Annual Report to Congress.” Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, testifies.

* FEMA. House Homeland Security Emergency Management and Technology Subcommittee hearing on “Future of FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency): Agency Perspectives with Administrator Deanne Criswell.”

* India state visit preview. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a conference call briefing on “Previewing State Visit of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi.”

* EU enlargement. The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS) holds a virtual discussion on “Eastern Europe Joins the Western Balkans: A New Start for the EU’s Enlargement Policy.”

* House Ways and Means markup. House Ways and Means Committee meets to markup of HR 3936, the “Tax Cuts for Working Families Act"; HR 3937, the “Small Business Jobs Act"; HR 3938, the “Build It in America Act"; and the “United States-Taiwan Initiative on the 21st-Century Trade First Agreement Implementation Act.”

* Zero emissions vehicles. Final day of the Resources for the Future (RFF) virtual workshop on “Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandates: Research for Effective, Efficient, and Equitable Policy Implementation.”

* U.S. electric grid. The American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE) holds a virtual discussion on “NERC (North American Electric Reliability Corporation) Summer Reliability Assessment: Can the Grid Take the Heat?”

* Helping small businesses. House Small Business Committee hearing on “Assisting Entrepreneurs: Examining Private and Public Resources Helping Small Businesses.”

* Future of digital assets. House Financial Services Committee (Chair Patrick T. McHenry, R-N.C.) hearing on “The Future of Digital Assets: Providing Clarity for the Digital Asset Ecosystem.”

* Fusion energy. House Science, Space, and Technology Energy Subcommittee hearing on “From Theory to Reality: The Limitless Potential of Fusion Energy.”

Wednesday, June 14

* Farm bill research title. House Agriculture Conservation, Research, and Biotechnology Subcommittee hearing on “A Review of Title VII: University Perspectives on Research and Extension Programs.”

* Agriculture and cutting emissions. The R Street Institute holds a virtual discussion on “Opportunities for U.S. Agriculture to Grow the Economy and Cut Emissions.”

* Bipartisan debt package, gun safety. Axios holds a “News Shapers” discussion on “the top stories driving the news, from the biggest takeaways of the bipartisan debt deal to gun safety initiatives and voting rights ahead of the 2024 election.”

* Foreign affairs issues. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the U.S./ASEAN Business Council hold the second annual U.S./Indo-Pacific Conference, on “the U.S. relationship with ASEAN and the Quad, including the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.” Runs through Thursday.

* Water issues. Final day of the American Water Works Association ACE23 conference with the theme “The Future of Water is 2050.”

* SEC small business panel. Securities and Exchange Commission holds a meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee on matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.

* Infrastructure Act implementation. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on “Implementation of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act by the Federal Highway Administration.” Shailen Bhatt, administrator of the Federal Highway Administration, testifies.

* NATO membership. The Atlantic Council holds a discussion on “NATO membership and security guarantees: Getting Ukraine right at the Vilnius summit.”

* U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. Senate Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing on “Enhancing American Competitiveness Through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.”

* CFPB report to Congress. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “The Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.” Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, testifies.

* Countering China’s influence. House Natural Resources Indo-Pacific Task Force Subcommittee hearing on “How the Compacts of Free Association Support U.S. Interests and Counter the PRC’s (People’s Republic of China) Influence.”

* Immigration issues. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on “Ensuring the Safety and Well-Being of Unaccompanied Children.”

* Biden administration regulations. House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing on “Death by a Thousand Regulations: The Biden Administration’s Campaign to Bury America in Red Tape.”

* U.S. southern border situation. House Homeland Security Committee hearing on “Open Borders, Closed Case: Secretary Mayorkas’ Dereliction of Duty on the Border Crisis.”

* U.S. elections. House Administration Committee hearing on “American Confidence in Elections: The Role of the Election Assistance Commission in Free, Fair, and Secure Elections.”

* U.S. banking supervision. The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) holds a virtual discussion on “How (In)effective is U.S. Banking Supervision?”

* EU, NATO response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Business Council for International Understanding (BCIU) holds a discussion on France’s defense priorities, developments in the EU and NATO on defense capabilities, and the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

* Countering China’s activities. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on “Assessing U.S. Efforts to Counter China’s Coercive Belt and Road Diplomacy.”

* Supreme Court ethics. Senate Judiciary Federal Courts, Oversight, Agency Action and Federal Rights Subcommittee hearing on S 359, the “Supreme Court Ethics, Recusal, and Transparency Act of 2023.”

* Veterans care in rural America. Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee hearing on “Connections to Care: Improving Substance Use Disorder Care for Veterans in Rural America and Beyond.”

* Energy innovation. The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) holds a discussion on “What’s Next for Energy Innovation?”

Thursday, June 15

* Global trade. FiscalNote holds a virtual discussion on “Navigating the Complex World of Global Trade: Trends, Tools, and Opportunities.”

* U.S./Indo Pacific issues. Final day of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the U.S./ASEAN Business Council second annual U.S./Indo-Pacific Conference, on “the U.S. relationship with ASEAN and the Quad, including the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.”

* Maritime hazardous materials transportation. Final day of the Coast Guard meeting of the National Chemical Transportation Safety Advisory Committee, to discuss matters relating to the safe and secure marine transportation of hazardous materials.

* Legislation to reverse BLM rule. House Natural Resources Committee hearing on HR 3397, to require the Director of the Bureau of Land Management to withdraw a rule of the Bureau of Land Management relating to conservation and landscape health.

* Eastern Europe energy security. The Atlantic Council holds its eighth annual Central and Eastern European Energy Security Conference.

* U.S./China panel session. U.S./China Economic and Security Review Commission holds a hearing on “Europe, the United States, and Relations with China: Convergence or Divergence?”

* U.S./Korea technology issues. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual discussion on “U.S./Republic of Korea (ROK) Security, Semiconductors, and Sensitive Technologies.”

* NATO enlargement. The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on “Evaluating NATO enlargement since the end of the Cold War.”

* Immigration issues. The American Bar Association (ABA) holds a virtual discussion on “Immigration Law Myths and Realities: An Overview of the Limited Pathways to Legal Status in the U.S.”

Friday, June 16

* Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller participates in a discussion on “Challenges Facing Macroeconomic Policy,” at the Norges Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and IMF Economic Review joint conference on “The Future of Macroeconomic Policy.”

* Lessons from Ukraine on Taiwan. The Atlantic Council holds a virtual discussion on U.S./China lessons from Ukraine: Fueling more dangerous Taiwan tensions.”

* U.S. electric grid. House Energy and Commerce Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee field hearing on “Enhancing America’s Grid Security and Resilience.”

Economic Reports for the Week

Economic data expected ahead of the FOMC meeting include the CPI and PPI-FD updates, which may influence expectations for the Fed’s actions. Surprises in other data, such as consumer activity, regional manufacturing, and consumer attitudes, could also impact markets.

Monday, June 12

Treasury Budget

Tuesday, June 13

National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for May. Expectations are for an 89 reading, matching the April data. The index remains mired well below historical averages as small-business owners struggle to find qualified workers for open positions.
Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for May. Consensus estimate is for the CPI to increase 4.2% year over year, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen rising 5.2%. This compares with gains of 4.9% and 5.5%, respectively, in April.

Wednesday, June 14

MBA Mortgage Applications
BLS releases the producer price index for May. The PPI is expected to rise 1.5% year over year, nearly a full percentage point less than in April. The core PPI is seen increasing 2.9%, three-tenths of a percentage point less than previously. The PPI is currently at its lowest level since January of 2021.
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
FOMC meeting conclusion, updated Fed projections
FOMC post-meeting presser

Thursday, June 15

Jobless Claims
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
Census Bureau reports retail sales data for May. The consensus call is for retail spending to remain flat month over month at $686 billion, following a 0.4% increase in April.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Import & Export Prices
Industrial Production
Business Inventories
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply

Friday, June 16

University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment index for June. Economists forecast a still-dour 60 reading, one point more than in May.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

Focus is on crop development and weather conditions in the Midwest, as well as the condition ratings for various crops in the weekly Crop Progress report and Thursday’s Export Sales report.

Monday, June 12

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Crop Progress

Season-Average Price Forecasts
Feed Grains Database

Wheat Data