— Harris and Trump set for Tuesday debate. The debate is on ABC News Tuesday evening at 9 p.m. ET. It will take place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. Key details about this highly anticipated event: • The 90-minute debate will begin at 9 p.m. ET and will be broadcast live on ABC.
• There will be no live audience present.
• ABC News anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis will moderate the debate.
• Candidates will stand behind lecterns for the entire debate.
• No opening statements will be made.
• Each candidate will have two minutes to answer questions, followed by two-minute rebuttals and an additional minute for follow-ups or clarifications.
• Microphones will only be live when it’s a candidate’s turn to speak and muted during their opponent’s turn.
• No props or written notes will be allowed on stage.
• Each candidate will be provided with a pen, notepad, and water bottle.
• There will be two commercial breaks during the debate.
• Trump won a virtual coin toss and chose to deliver the final closing statement.
• Harris selected the right podium position on the screen.
• No topics or questions will be shared with campaigns or candidates in advance. — NYT/Siena College poll shows tight race as Harris’ momentum slows. The new poll indicates Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 1.5 points among likely voters, signaling a momentum shift in the 2024 race. The high-rated poll, with a large sample size, highlights a trend of declining support for Harris compared to earlier surveys. Although other polls suggest a closer contest in key battleground states, the NYT poll has significantly reduced Harris’s lead in national polling averages, suggesting the race is now a toss-up. More about the NYT/Siena College poll in the Week Ahead (link). — Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index data will give investors the clearest sign yet as to how much the Fed will cut interest rates Sept. 18 at the FOMC confab. August’s CPI is expected to cool to 2.6% from 2.9% though the core rate is seen holding steady at 3.2%. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank will likely cut rates this Thursday. — Federal Reserve’s communications blackout period around the Sept. 17-18 FOMC meeting is in effect (midnight, Saturday, Sept. 7 through midnight, Thursday, Sept. 19). If any Fed officials speak, it will not be about monetary policy — Tuesday brings the launch of the WTO World Trade Report, an annual publication produced by the World Trade Organization (WTO) that provides in-depth analysis of current trends and issues in international trade. — USDA’s updated crop estimates come Thursday. Many think the corn and soybean crop tallies will come close to USDA’s August estimates. — California’s green energy push strains power grid, leading to frequent outages. Frequent power outages, like those seen during Labor Day weekend across California, highlight the challenges posed by the state’s aggressive shift to green energy. Straining the grid and driving up electricity costs, California’s climate policies are causing disruptions not only for residents but also for critical infrastructure like the Port of Los Angeles. With renewable energy mandates and aging equipment, the state’s power system faces increasing instability, leaving other states watching closely as California grapples with grid failures. Link to a WSJ commentary by Allysia Finley for details. — Salmonella outbreak linked to recalled eggs across nine states, 65 infected. A salmonella outbreak connected to eggs from Milo’s Poultry Farms has sickened 65 people across nine states, with 24 hospitalized, according to the CDC and FDA. The recall affects eggs distributed in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. Health officials warn that the actual number of cases may be higher and advise consumers to discard affected eggs and sanitize surfaces. No deaths have been reported. — Updates on some Senate races: • Montana: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is running for re-election against Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. This is expected to be a highly competitive race, with recent polls showing a close contest. Real Clear Politics has Sheehy up by 5.2 points. Montana is considered one of the key battleground states that could determine control of the Senate.
• Ohio: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is facing Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. Recent polls show a tight race, with Brown holding a narrow lead in most surveys. Real Clear Politics shows Brown up by 3.6 points. Ohio has trended Republican in recent years, making this another crucial battleground race.
• West Virginia: This is an open seat race, as incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (I) is not seeking re-election. Republican Governor Jim Justice is running against Democratic candidate Glenn Elliott. West Virginia has become a solidly Republican state, giving the GOP a strong advantage in this race, with Justice considerably ahead of his challenger.
• Texas: Incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is running for re-election against Democratic challenger Colin Allred. Recent polls show Cruz with a small lead, typically in the 2–10-point range. While Texas has become more competitive, Cruz remains favored to win re-election.
• Nebraska: Dan Osborn’s independent bid for Nebraska’s Senate seat is creating an unexpected competitive race against incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. This development is surprising given Nebraska’s historically strong Republican leanings in statewide elections. Recent polling suggests a tight contest between Fischer and Osborn. The Democratic primary did not produce a nominee, so Fischer currently does not have a major party challenger. Nebraska is a solidly Republican state, making Fischer a favorite to win re-election. Republican voters nearly double the number of Democrats in Nebraska. Combined Democrat and nonpartisan voters approach Republican numbers. Some experts, like Kevin Smith from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, suggest the race might be genuinely competitive. Others, like Ryan Horn, an Omaha-based Republican strategist, argue the polls suggesting a close race are “out of whack” with Nebraska’s political reality.
• Maryland: The race for Maryland’s open Senate seat is shaping up to be highly competitive between Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks and Republican candidate Larry Hogan, a former governor. An AARP poll in late August showed Alsobrooks and Hogan tied at 46% each. A subsequent Gonzales Research poll in early September gave Alsobrooks a slight lead of 46% to 41% over Hogan. The shift in Alsobrooks’ favor may be partly attributed to her prominent speaking role at the Democratic National Convention, which helped raise her profile.
• Florida: The race is shaping up to be highly competitive between incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Scott and his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Recent polls show a very tight contest: A new Emerson College poll released on Sept. 8 shows Scott with a narrow 1-point lead over Mucarsel-Powell, 46% to 45%. This represents the closest margin seen in recent polling and the best result for Mucarsel-Powell so far. Other recent polls have shown Scott with slightly larger leads: A Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll from late August had Scott up by 3 points (43% to 40%). A University of North Florida poll from July showed Scott leading by 4 points. — Congress faces potential FY 2025 shutdown, farm bill stalemate, and other key issues as lawmakers return from summer break. Some issues discussed in more detail in The Week Ahead (link): • FY 2025 spending: House Republicans proposed a stopgap bill extending funding to March 2024, including a controversial provision to remove noncitizens from voter rolls, facing Senate opposition and risking a government shutdown by Sept. 30.
• Farm bill: No progress yet on a new farm bill, with both the House and Senate awaiting crucial steps. Pressure builds as farm income declines, and lobbyists push for legislative action.
• Foreign land ownership bill: The House will consider restricting foreign ownership of U.S. farmland by entities from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, a move supported by both parties amid national security concerns.
• Other issues include Ukraine aid, and the potential for a Biden impeachment inquiry.
|
