After the weekend update: May 28, 2024
Early morning look at the beginning of the week including some items on Profarmer.com, AgWeb.com or AgriTalk, or some weekend topics that will be detailed further in the mid-morning Updates.
- Congress is out for the Memorial Day recess for one week. Both the Senate and the House will be on recess the week of May 27 and will return on June 3. Link to more from The Week Ahead.
- AAA projected nearly 44 million travelers headed 50 miles or more from home during the holiday period, which began on May 23. That’s the second-highest number of travelers on record.
- Farm bill, House: See you in September… after Congress hopefully deals with fiscal year 2025 appropriations bills, including a likely short-term stop-gap spending measure because, well, you know Congress.
- Farm bill, House: In Updates later this morning, we look at the House Ag Dems who voted for and against the 2024 Farm Bill and how their districts voted for president in 2020.
- Farm bill, Senate: Questions about that chamber’s “bill” continue, like (1) Where’s the text? (2) What is the CBO scoring for major titles, especially nutrition?
- Top two spending levels of 2018 Farm Bill: (1) Food & nutrition spending and (2) SNAP overpayments, fraud and abuse. Nutrition spending, while declining from its pandemic heights, has remained above projections from 2018.
- Cold Storage Report: Red meat stocks build during April. USDA reported total red meat stocks in frozen storage increased 35.2 million lbs. during April but they remained 89.7 million lbs. (8.6%) below year-ago. Beef stocks declined less than average during the month, while pork inventories built more than normal.
- Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral vs. expectations. The decline in feedlot numbers was the first drop versus year-ago in eight months.
- China firms seek dumping probe for EU pork: Global Times. China imported 1.55 million tons of pork last year, with over half from Europe. Spain was the largest EU supplier, with 382,000 tons.
- Beijing rebukes G7 criticism, defends trade practices. The Chinese gov’t accused the G7 of exaggerating issues like industrial overcapacity and attempting to hinder China’s economic progress. A foreign ministry spokeswoman labeled these criticisms as “essentially protectionism.” Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for robust financial regulations in China, describing them as requiring “teeth.”
- Study warns of H5N1 risks in raw milk, highlights need for pasteurization. A recent study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine (link), highlights the potential risks of consuming unpasteurized (raw) milk that may contain H5N1 avian flu viruses.
- Russia is stepping up its bid to control even more of its crucial grain industry — potentially giving it greater power over exports — just as worries mount over global supply, Bloomberg reports.
- Big impacts if the 2017 Trump cuts are left to expire… or are extended. Cost to extend: $4 trillion over ten years. Increases for taxpayers if tax cuts expire: $3 trillion tax hike; many would pay $2,600 to $3,600 more in taxes.
- Francis Scott Key bridge debris cleanup delayed to June 10, affecting shipping traffic. The end of May had been the goal of state and federal officials to fully open the federal channel, but a Friday news release says that work will conclude by June 10. Meanwhile, the first cruise ship sets sail from Port of Baltimore since the Key Bridge collapse.
- G7 finance chiefs back plan to leverage frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine. Ministers meeting in Italy also pledged to press China to cut industrial subsidies.
- Oh Canada: The union representing Canadian border agents is threatening to go on strike in June, risking billions of dollars in cross-border trade.
- Shipping rates spike as businesses anticipate more Red Sea attacks. Companies are preparing to ship goods for the festive season early as attacks by Yemen’s Houthis force ships to take longer routes.
- Soda-with-less sugar startup Olipop is expected to reach $500 million in sales this year, more than doubling its 2023 revenue of $200 million, as its healthier alternative to sugary drinks gains popularity among consumers. Olipop differentiates itself by offering soda with less sugar, plus added prebiotics and fiber for gut health.
- California gas prices slated to rise $1. Two impending gas price hikes that will affect all Californians will raise gas prices by over $1, exacerbating the financial burden on Californians already struggling with the state’s high cost of living.
- Tesla this year is the worst performing Magnificent 7 stock, down roughly 28 percent as of Friday’s market close.
- S&P 500 companies report 6% Q1 profit growth, fastest since early 2022. With 96% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported first-quarter earnings, the index is on track to grow quarterly profits 6% from a year ago, according to FactSet. That would be the fastest quarterly growth rate since the first quarter of 2022.
- T+1 settlement for U.S. securities transactions goes into effect today when markets reopen. The idea is to speed up the time it takes for cash and securities to change hands following a trade. The faster schedule, made possible by improved technology, will mean trades should be completed one business day after being agreed to. It takes two days now. In addition to stocks, the SEC says, the new regime will apply to bonds, municipal bonds, exchange-traded funds, and more.
- USDA’s food price update on Friday had something that did not happen for a while: USDA kept its food price inflation forecasts unchanged from April levels, predicting a 2.2% rise for all food, 1.2% for groceries, and 4.2% for restaurant prices in 2024. This is the first time the 2024 forecasts have remained steady since July 2023.
- Most polls show former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden, especially in crucial swing states. Despite Biden’s positive public stance, his actions suggest underlying anxiety.
- Deadly storms and tornadoes devastate central U.S. Powerful storms and tornadoes wreaked havoc across the central U.S. on Sunday, killing at least 15 people in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Kentucky. The severe weather injured numerous others, caused widespread power outages, and delayed the iconic Indianapolis 500. Ag impact: Delayed planting for some producers as several dry out days will be needed, along with replanting in some areas. Link to AgWeb item.
- Other quick takes:
- Israel and Egypt aim to contain Gaza conflict after Rafah airstrike
- Li Qiang hails ‘restart’ in China-Japan-South Korea relations at summit
- ECB poised to cut interest rates amid falling inflation
- Grain trader and analyst Richard Crow on the wheat market
- Cost of international shipping has surged
- Automakers electrify Brazil’s unique sugarcane cars
- Study warns of H5N1 risks in raw milk, highlights need for pasteurization
- CBO has a bad track record on sizing up farm bills
- Mexico: What’s next for their threatened ban on GMO corn for food