July 8, 2024
Early morning look at the beginning of the week including some items on Profarmer.com, AgWeb.com or AgriTalk, or some weekend topics that will be detailed further in the mid-morning Updates or are in The Week Ahead (link).
· The House and Senate return from the July 4th recess. Link to The Week Ahead for details of Washington’s agenda. Besides the focus of President Biden’s fate, lawmakers will hold a plethora of hearings on fiscal year 2025 appropriations. On Thursday, the Senate Appropriations Committee will debate its version of the FY 2025 Agriculture bill. On Saturday, we released details of Biden’s 22-minute interview Friday with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos. When he was pressed on questions about cognitive tests and concerns from his party, Biden insisted he’d only drop out of the presidential race if “the Lord Almighty” tells him to.
· Several top House Democrats told their leadership Sunday that President Joe Biden should step aside as the Democratic presidential nominee, Punchbowl News, the New York Times and NBC News reports. Those disagreements played out in part at a private meeting with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) of Democrats who hold top party seats on committees. Reps. Jerry Nadler (N.Y.), Mark Takano (Calif.), Adam Smith (Wash.) and Joe Morelle (N.Y.) all said on a private leadership call Sunday that Biden should leave the presidential race. Most expressed support for Vice President Kamala Harris to take over at the top of the ticket. Some senior Democrats said in statements after the meeting that they want Biden to stay in the race. Bottom line: Several lawmakers said this week would be “critical” for Biden’s fate.
· Ag markets last week (Pro Farmer): Soybean futures rebounded from their June 28 lows ahead of the Fourth of July holiday. Corn and wheat futures struggled to find corrective buying but held above their late-June lows. With corn pollination starting, much of traders’ attention will be on weather. Without any significant heat or moisture stress, it’s going to be difficult to get traders concerned about corn and soybean crop prospects. But funds are already heavily net short across the grain and soy markets. Live cattle futures initially pulled back last week, but big discounts to the cash market and strong cash fundamentals limited selling. Lean hog futures tried to rebound from their recent lows, though weak cash and wholesale prices limited corrective buying.
· AgriTalk’s free-for-all program on Friday (link) focused on recent Supreme Court rulings, President Biden’s re-election crisis, and chances for a new farm bill this calendar year. A guest on the program was Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), who said after talking with Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), ranking member on the Senate Ag Committee, that a new farm bill could be voted on during a post-election lame-duck session of Congress. Moran admitted, however, that he is “usually optimistic” about these things. Moran also talked about the Chevron deference decision by the Supreme Court, a major ruling overturning a 40-year precedent that gave vast authority to regulatory agencies and a decision with far reaching implications for the power of the federal government.
Of note: A recent report (link) from the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service notes that starting in 2008, farm bills have been subject to delays, vetoes and insufficient votes to pass on the floor. The report concluded: “Over time, farm bills have tended to become more complicated and politically sensitive. As a result, the timeline for reauthorization has become less certain.”
· USDA’s updated balance sheets on Friday, July 12, will reflect adjustments to old-crop demand forecasts based on June 1 stocks. There will be major changes on the new-crop balance sheets to reflect planted acreage figures. The first all-wheat crop estimate will include the first survey-based forecasts for other spring wheat and durum.
· May U.S. beef export value highest in 11 months; pork exports below year-ago. The value of U.S. beef exports topped $900 million in May, the highest since June 2023, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Pork exports posted another solid performance in May, but were below last year in both volume and value.
· The U.S. is intensifying scrutiny on Chinese land purchases near military bases due to concerns over national security and espionage, according to a special report (link) by the Epoch Times.
· A coalition of leftist parties in France, known as the New Popular Front, won the most seats in the parliamentary elections, according to early projections. This coalition, which includes socialists, greens, and the far-left France Unbowed, is estimated to have secured between 178 and 205 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly. In contrast, President Emmanuel Macron’s party and its allies are projected to have won between 157 and 174 seats, while Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and its allies garnered between 113 and 148 seats. This outcome represents a significant setback for Le Pen’s anti-immigrant party, which had achieved a strong result in the first round of voting. Macron now faces the challenge of forming a government from a coalition of parties with differing agendas, unified mainly by their opposition to the far-right. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal says he will resign. The euro fell after the projections pointed to a shock victory for the leftist alliance.
· Key hearings in Congress this week include:
Monday, July 8
o Rural health issues. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion on “issues facing rural America,” focusing on health and addiction challenges, as part of the On the Front Porch series.
Tuesday, July 9
o Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers first of two days of testimony on the Monetary Report to Congress before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr to speak on Financial Inclusion: Past, Present, and Hopes for the Future; Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to speak on Promoting an Inclusive Financial System.
o International financial system. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “The Annual Testimony of the Secretary of the Treasury on the State of the International Financial System.” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies.
o U.S. budget outlook. Senate Budget Committee hearing on “Examining CBO’s Updated 2024-2034 Budget and Economic Outlook.” CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies.
o Inflation impacts on families. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Children and Families Subcommittee hearing on everyday expenses and everyday Americans, focusing on how high costs impact children and families.
o Solar tariffs. American Council on Renewable Energy and Clean Energy Associates virtual discussion on “New Analysis on Potential Solar Tariffs,” focusing on “the impact of new potential Antidumping and Countervailing Duties (AD/CVD) on solar cells and modules from Southeast Asia.”
o CARB regs. House Transportation and Infrastructure Railroads, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee hearing on “An Examination of the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) In-Use Locomotive Regulation.”
Wednesday, July 10
o Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his second day of testimony on the Monetary Report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to deliver opening remarks at Chicago Fed event; Fed Governor Lisa Cook to speak on Global Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges in Australia; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee scheduled to speak.
o EPA impact on agriculture. House Ag Committee hearing on “Examining the Consequences of EPA’s Actions on American Agriculture.”
o FY 2025 Budget: USDA, FDA, HHS, Transportation, HUD. House Appropriations Committee markup of the FY 2025 Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies bill; the FY 2025 Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies bill; the FY 2025 Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies bill; and FY 2025 Revised Subcommittee Allocations.
o Rural infrastructure. Senate Ag Rural Development and Energy Subcommittee hearing on “The State of Rural Infrastructure: Emergency Response, Recovery, and Resilience.”
o EPA oversight. House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing on “Oversight of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.” EPA Administrator Michael Regan testifies.
o Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on “The Response to the Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse on March 26, 2024.”
Thursday, July 11
o Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and St. Louis Fed President Albert Musalem scheduled to speak.
o FY 2025 Budget: Legislative Branch, USDA, FDA, MILCON. Senate Appropriations Committee markup of 302(b) Subcommittee allocations; the “Legislative Branch Appropriations Act, 2025"; the “Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2025"; and the “Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2025.”
o U.S. food policy. Food Tank virtual discussion on the state of food policy in the United States, anti-hunger solutions, policies and programs helping us advance Food is Medicine initiatives, and efforts to end food loss and waste.”
o Urban agriculture panel. Natural Resources Conservation Service holds a meeting of the Urban Agriculture and Innovative Production Advisory Committee for administrative matters, presentations from the UAIPAC or Agricultural Department staff and deliberations for proposed recommendations and plans.
· Other items of note:
o Hurricane Beryl, currently a category one storm with a wind speed of up to 80 miles per hour, made landfall in Texas.
o Iran: Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian won Iran’s presidential election.
o Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Moscow for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine.
o NATO: Representatives of the 32 NATO member countries on Tuesday will gather in Washington, DC, for a three-day summit marking the 75th anniversary of the alliance. President Biden will give a press conference on Thursday.
o Boeing accepts plea deal to avoid criminal trial over 737 Max crashes.
o Several states are being fined for SNAP errors.