Farm Bureau Price Tag for 2022 Weather Disasters: Over $21 Billion

USDA extends ‘time-limited trial’ for six facilities via new swine inspection system

A head’s up, or more accurately, a leg up: I am finally getting my “complex tear” of a leg muscle worked on tomorrow. Depending on when I go for surgery, an Updates dispatch on Tuesday is unclear. A warm thank you for all those airport workers who wheeled me through big airports over the past few months, especially for flights at Dulles’ A gates as there are six elevators to deal with!

China announced its lowest growth target in more than a quarter-century Sunday, a sign that the country wants to focus on other priorities such as security, finance or technology policy. We have details in the China section. Meanwhile, tensions are continuing to escalate between the world’s largest economies as the Biden administration reportedly prepares a new program that could prohibit American investment in certain sectors in China.

Another Norfolk Southern train derails in Ohio; railroad says no toxins aboard. Link to Reuters. On Sunday during a CNN interview, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg fired back at Republican critics while conceding he should have visited the East Palestine derailment site earlier than he did.

Farm Bureau put a price tag on 2022 weather disasters: over $21 billion. Details below.

USDA has reportedly completed a study of concentration in the meat and seed industries. If USDA Sec. Tom Vilsack does not unveil it today in California while speaking at the NFU annual convention, he could unveil the report later this week at the Commodity Classic in Orlando, Florida.

The battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut continues. Russian forces have had their Ukrainian counterparts on the ropes, but it is still unclear how long the fight there will last. A Ukraine commander said Sunday that defenses were still holding up, although he conceded the situation in Bakhmut was “very much like Hell, as it is on the entire eastern front.” Elsewhere, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told CNN that the only condition for peace talks would be the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine.

President Joe Biden’s administration is nearing a decision on whether the 180,000-barrel-a-day Willow oil development in the Alaskan wilderness can go ahead. It could come as soon as today.

Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said talks with the European Union were constructive as they work to resolve a dispute over plans to ban new combustion-engine cars in the bloc from 2035.

Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan turns 97 today.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed mixed openings when the New York day session begins. In Asia, Japan +1.1%. Hong Kong +0.2%. China -0.2%. India +0.7%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.3%.

U.S. equities Friday: The Dow gained 387.40 points, 1.2%, to 33,390.97. The Nasdaq rose 226.02 points, 2%, to 11,689.01. The S&P 500 advanced 64.29 points, 1.6%, to 4,045.64. All three indexes finished higher for the week, snapping a four-week losing streak for the Dow.

The benchmark S&P 500 Index is up 5.8% so far in 2023, after falling nearly 20% in 2022 to mark its worst performance since the financial crisis.

Agriculture markets Friday:

• Corn: May corn futures rose 6 cents to $6.39 3/4 and nearer the session high. For the week, May corn lost 9 1/2 cents.
• Soy complex: May soybeans rose 9 1/2 cents to $15.18 3/4, marking a 1/2-cent loss on the week. May meal rose $9.00 to 481.30, while May soyoil dropped 71 points to 61.19 cents.
• Wheat: May SRW closed 4 cents lower at $7.08 3/4, losing 13 cents on the week and marking the lowest weekly close since September 2021. May HRW closed 9 3/4 cents lower at $8.16 1/4. May spring wheat fell 2 1/2 cents to $8.73 3/4.
• Cotton: May cotton rose 46 points to 84.17 cents but fell 73 points on the week.
• Cattle: April live cattle advanced $1.325 to end the week at $165.425; that marked a 5-cent weekly rise.
• Hogs: April lean hog futures rose 70 cents to $84.55 and near mid-range. For the week, April hogs fell $1.47 1/2.
  

Ag markets today: Grain and soy futures faced pressure overnight amid a lack of bullish news and negative outside markets. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans were 5 to 6 cents lower and wheat futures were 7 to 11 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures were more than $1 lower and the U.S. dollar index was modestly firmer.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• Orders for manufactured goods are expected to fall 1.8% in January after a 1.8% rise in December. (10 a.m. ET)
• Reserve Bank of Australia releases an interest rate decision. (10:30 p.m. ET)
• USDA Grain Export Inspections report, 11 a.m. ET.

Lagarde: ECB must do more to tackle inflation ‘monster’. Christine Lagarde has warned that underlying price pressures will remain “sticky in the short term” and signaled that further interest rate rises from the European Central Bank (ECB) are very likely as “inflation is a monster that we need to knock on the head.” The ECB was not seeking to “break the economy” with rate increases, Lagarde told Spain’s El Correo (link), as she appealed for banks to reschedule debt repayments for households struggling to cope with soaring borrowing costs on variable-rate mortgages. “We are making progress, but we still have work to do… For the moment, the economy is resilient, employment is robust, and unemployment is the lowest it has ever been,” the ECB president said, while urging lenders to consider the “reputational side” of giving big pay rises to executives.

Barron’s: The Boom Time for Farmers Can Last. Who Will Reap the Rewards. A weekend Barron’s article (link) says “agriculture is getting its biggest tech upgrade in generations. Deere, AGCO, and other industry giants stand to benefit.” Link to Barron’s article.

Farm Bureau says new estimates reveal major 2022 weather disasters caused over $21 billion in crop losses. In an article on the topic (link), Farm Bureau says in 2022, 18 weather and climate disasters, each with damages exceeding $1 billion struck the U.S. coast-to-coast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that 2022 surpassed 2021 as the third-costliest disaster year event in history, with an estimated $165 billion in total economic losses behind only 2017’s $346 billion and 2005’s $244 billion. “With over 470 lives lost, these disasters will haunt impacted communities for years to come.”

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are down and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.991% — down a bit after pushing above 4.0% last week.

• Commodity traders saw record gross margins of about $115 billion last year amid market volatility driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to a report. If confirmed by trading companies’ annual profit figures, that would reflect an increase of about 60% over the previous year, consultants at Oliver Wyman showed in the study. Link to more via Bloomberg.

• Caterpillar has agreed to not close additional union-represented plants under a new tentative contract deal with the United Auto Workers union.

• NWS weather outlook: Strip of locally heavy snow to stretch from the Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic today... ...Heavy rain and the potential for scattered flash flooding enters parts of the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday night... ...Rounds of heavy snow continues across parts of the West before snow becomes more widespread across the northern Plains by Wednesday.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Grain price pressure to start the week
• Slightly better weather forecast for South America
• Brazil soybean harvest 43% done, safrinha corn planting 70% complete
• China again sells all wheat put up for auction
• India considers raising palm oil import tax
• Cash cattle hopes remain bullish
• Pork movement slows

— Summary: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, warned that Russia’s position around Bakhmut would be in peril unless the Kremlin provided his mercenaries with ammunition. In a message on Telegram, Prigozhin questioned if the delay in supplying weapons was “just ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal”. Russian forces have been trying to capture the city in eastern Ukraine for months. Ukraine has vowed to continue defending it.

• The U.S. is working with Ukrainian pilots in the United States to determine how long it would take to train them to fly F-16 fighter jets, three sources briefed on the matter told CNN. Ukraine has been pushing for the US to provide fighter jets, arguing that they need them to defend against Russian missile and drone attacks.
• Turkey working to renew Black Sea grain deal, repeating what it did the last time the pact was up for renewal. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Sunday that Ankara is working hard to extend the Black Sea grain deal. “We are working hard for the smooth implementation and further extension of the Black Sea grain deal,” Cavusoglu said in a speech at a United Nations conference. Russia has said it would only agree to extend the Black Sea grain deal if the interests of its own agricultural producers are considered. On Sunday, Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, reiterated this position. “If this agreement is equal, then we have always fulfilled our part and are going to fulfill it in all the agreements,” she said according to TASS news wire, adding that Russia would be against “goading and machinations.”
• Ukraine’s winter grain crop in mostly favorable condition. Most of Ukraine’s winter grain crops are in “good” condition and could produce average yields, Ukraine’s academy of agricultural science was quoted as saying on Monday. “The analysis of the viability of winter wheat... showed that the vast majority of plants – 92% to 97%, depending on the predecessor and sowing date – were in relatively good condition,” APK-Inform consultancy quoted a report by the academy as saying. “There are good reasons to make preliminary forecasts for the formation of yields that will be close to the long-term average,” the report said.
  

— John Kerry: In an interview with the Boston Globe (link), Kerry said he told President Biden that he intends to serve in his role as U.S. climate envoy through at least the COP28 climate summit the begins in late November. “There’s sufficient unfinished business that I felt it would be inappropriate to walk away from that at this point in time,” Kerry, 79, said. Meanwhile, his conversations with China, the world’s biggest emitter, have been on pause for about a month. “We were told he had Covid,” Kerry said, referring to his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua, “and we’re waiting to reconnect.” Bottom line from Kerry: “My main objective is to raise the ante at this COP, so we are coming out of there with a head of steam on emissions reduction and finance,” Kerry said. “There are things that are riper, more compelling, more obvious, more necessary, more urgent.”

— Michael Froman, former U.S. Trade Representative under Barack Obama, has been given the very nice job of president of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

— China sets lowest economic growth target in decades. Officials are aiming for around 5% GDP growth this year, a relatively conservative target, and its lowest target for more than three decades, as global headwinds add to domestic fiscal concerns. Analysts said this year’s conservative economic growth target would be easier for Xi’s new economic team to meet, after falling far short of its goal in 2022 — In 2022, Beijing targeted 5.5% GDP growth, although the economy only grew by 3%, according to official numbers.

Other key items from this weekend’s confab, according to a draft budget presented to the National People’s Congress, the country’s rubber-stamp legislature:

• Defense spending will grow 7.2% this year (to nearly $225 billion), the most since 2019 and higher than the 5.7% growth in public expenditure. Spending on the foreign ministry and other diplomatic efforts will grow even faster, by 12.2%. An official justified the defense spending boost by citing “complex security challenges.” Perspective: While China’s military spending is only a third of the U.S. level, it has grown fivefold over the past two decades, according to the U.S. think-tank CSIS, and now exceeds that of the 13 next-largest military spenders in the Indo-Pacific combined.
• Beijing will target “unregulated” expansion in the real estate sector, and seek to shore up the balance sheets of high-quality developers.
• Chinese leaders called for a “whole nation strategy” to beat the U.S. in basic science and technologies ranging from AI to space.
• Beijing aims to create about 12 million urban jobs, and keep the unemployment rate at about 5.5%.
• China raised its fiscal deficit projection to 3% f gross domestic product.
• Other priorities included “intensifying efforts to attract and utilize foreign investment,” “preventing and defusing” financial risks, stabilizing grain production, continuing green development and developing social programs.
• China will push to increase grain production by 50 million tons, under a new drive to bolster food security. Keeping grain output above 650 million tons is crucial to ensure adequate supply and maintain stable prices, the National Development and Reform Commission — the top economic planner — said in a report to the annual parliamentary gathering in Beijing on Sunday. “We should keep total grain acreage at a stable level, promote the production of oilseed crops, and launch a new drive to increase grain production capacity,” Premier Li Keqiang said in his final government work report to the National People’s Congress. That will include development of high-quality farming land, support for the agricultural technology sector and more innovation in the seed industry, according to Li. China’s grain harvest was 686.55 million tons in 2022, the NDRC said in its report, and has been stable at over 650 million tons since 2015, according to state media.
• China will also build more grain storage and logistics facilities, and ensure good planning for sales of grain stockpiles, the NDRC said. It will also seek progress in building national centers for soybean seeds.

— U.S. officials said Beijing could use giant cargo cranes as spy tools. Chinese-made cranes operate at ports across America, including several used by the military. A representative of China called the concerns “paranoia-driven.”

— Electric vehicles are shattering the barrier to adoption that could matter most. With recent price declines, the cost to buy and operate some electric vehicles over several years is now roughly on par with their gasoline-powered counterparts. Batteries are the single most expensive element of an EV. As they get cheaper, going electric no longer has to be a costly proposition. Link to details via the Wall Street Journal. Bottom line: EV naysayers are starting to reassess.

— For the first time in at least a decade, U.S. drillers last year spent more on share buybacks and dividends than on capital projects, according to Bloomberg calculations (link). The $128 billion in combined payouts across 26 companies also is the most since at least 2012 and occurred in a year when Biden unsuccessfully appealed to the industry to lift production and relieve surging fuel prices.

— What is spillover? Bird flu outbreak underscores need for early detection to prevent the next big pandemic. Link to article from Treana Mayer, Colorado State University, a biologist who studies how viruses spread from animals to people. It explains the process of spillover and the risks posed by the new bird flu that has spread across the globe. Link to article.

— Carrot and a big-time stick. DoorDash and Chase recently unveiled a new Mastercard-branded rewards card for power users of the food delivery platform. Among other perks, cardholders get 4% cash back on DoorDash/Caviar orders, a free year of the DashPass subscription service (worth $10 per month), and $100 cash back after spending $500. But note this: For consumers who don’t pay their balances in full every month, the costs can really add up. The DoorDash-Chase card’s APR carries a variable rate between 19.49% to 28.24%. Indigestion anyone?

— Dollar Tree opens test kitchen, plans launch of ‘hundreds’ of private-label items amid grocery push. The operator of Dollar Tree and Family Dollar expanded its offering of $3-$5 frozen and refrigerated foods, is adding thousands of cooler doors, started selling bread and ice, and said it sees “nothing but opportunity” in grocery. Link for details.

— NPPC statement on USDA’s decision to extend line speed trial:

“The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) applauds USDA’s decision to allow eligible pork harvest facilities to continue experimenting with ergonomics, automation, and crewing while maintaining line speeds that have been proven able to protect food and worker safety for over two decades. Ensuring sufficient harvest capacity is critical to allow America’s pork producers to continue to provide wholesome pork products to consumers. This extension will allow USDA to assess a final report of the data collected during the time-limited trial and determine next steps. NPPC appreciates the extension of the trial period and will continue working with the administration and Congress towards a permanent solution.”

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 676,040,617 with 6,877,364 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 103,646,940 with 1,122,164 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 672,076,105 doses administered, 269,554,116 have received at least one vaccine, or 81.81% of the U.S. population.

— A University of Denver study finds that people experiencing long Covid share similarities with people diagnosed and recovering from a concussion. Link to study. Link to article for more details.

— Link to The Week Ahead we released on Sunday.

Monday, March 6

• CERAWeek. S&P Global’s CERAWeek event in Houston with the theme “Navigating a Turbulent World: Energy, Climate and Security.” Runs through Friday. Monday highlights include Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt participates in a discussion on “Ukraine: War and its Aftermath.” John Podesta, senior adviser to the president for clean energy innovation and implementation, participates in a discussion on “The Biden Administration: Strategies on Climate and Energy.” State Department Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry participates in a discussion.

• National Farmers Union meeting. National Farmers Union annual meeting; runs through Tuesday; USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack to address the group.

• REC meeting. The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association annual meeting, through Wednesday, in Nashville.

• School Nutrition Association. School Nutrition Association legislative action conference runs through Tuesday.

• China National People’s Congress. Asia Society Policy Institute virtual Twitter Spaces briefing on “Two Sessions,” the annual gathering of China’s National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.

• China and Taiwan. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Deterring a Cross-Strait Conflict: Beijing’s Assessment of Evolving U.S. Strategy.”

• U.S./China tensions. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “U.S./China Tensions.”

• Humanitarian aid. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Rethinking Humanitarian Aid.”

• Climate issues. Brookings Institution virtual conference on “The Economic Case for Tackling Climate Change Now.”

• FTC issues. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies discussion on “Recent Developments at the FTC (Federal Trade Commission).”

• Transatlantic relations and the war in Ukraine. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion on “The West is Back (Again): Transatlantic Relations and the Ukraine War.”

• Ohio rail accident. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on the latest findings on what may have caused the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, and the overall health of the U.S. rail system.

• Economic reports: Factory Orders

• Energy reports. S&P Global CERAWeek, Houston; runs through Friday | Holiday: Thailand.

• USDA reports. AMS. Export Inspections

Tuesday, March 7

• Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers the first day of testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.

• CERAWeek. S&P Global’s CERAWeek event in Houston with the theme “Navigating a Turbulent World: Energy, Climate and Security.” Runs through Friday. Tuesday highlights include OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais taking part in a discussion.

• Ag tech and climate. American Security Project virtual discussion on “Innovating Out of the Climate Crisis: AgTech.”

• U.S./China food actions and climate. Wilson Center’s China Environment Forum virtual discussion on “Opportunities for Enhanced Near-term U.S./China Climate Action: The Food System.”

• WTO issues. Washington International Trade Association virtual discussion on “WTO (World Trade Organization) Jurisprudence — Were the National Security Cases Prudent Even if They Were Permitted?” — focusing on former President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

• U.S. economy field hearing. House Ways and Means Committee field hearing in Yukon, Oklahoma, on “The State of the American Economy: The Heartland.”

• Hong Kong business environment. Atlantic Council discussion on “Fractured Foundations: Assessing Hong Kong’s Business Environment.”

• Upcoming flu season. Food and Drug Administration teleconference of the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee to discuss and make recommendations on the selection of strains to be included in the influenza virus vaccines for the 2023-2024 influenza season.

• Covid treatments. Center for Global Development virtual discussion on “Revisiting the Role of Covid-19 Treatments Going Forward.”

• Outlook for interest rates. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual debate on “The Future of Interest Rates.”

• China and Russia issues. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “China, Russia, and Bipartisanship.”

• Crypto mining. Senate Environment and Public Works Clean Air, Climate and Nuclear Safety Subcommittee hearing on “Air, Climate, and Environmental Impacts of Crypto-Asset Mining,” focusing on the “Crypto-Asset Environmental Transparency Act.”

• Debt limit. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Economic Policy Subcommittee hearing on “The Federal Debt Limit and its Economic and Financial Consequences.”

• Digital markets. Senate Judiciary Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights Subcommittee hearing on “Reining in Dominant Digital Platforms: Restoring Competition to Our Digital Markets.”

• Economic reports: Wholesale Trade | Consumer Credit

• Energy reports. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report | API US inventory report | Holiday: India.

Wednesday, March 8

• Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers the second day of testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee.

• CFTC oversight. Senate Agriculture Committee hearing on oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam to testify.

• Farm bill forestry programs. House Agriculture Forestry Subcommittee hearing on “A Review of Title VIII: Forestry Stakeholder Perspectives.”

• WOTUS rule and small businesses. House Small Business Committee hearing on “Small Business Perspectives on the Impacts of the Biden Administration’s Waters of the United States (WOTUS) Rule.”

• Water resources. House Natural Resources Water, Wildlife and Fisheries Subcommittee hearing on “Benefits and Access: The Necessity for Multiple Use of Water Resources.”

• Federal lands and forests. House Natural Resources Federal Lands Subcommittee hearing on “Promoting Conservation with a Purpose on America’s Federal Lands and Forests.”

• Tapping the SPR. House Oversight and Reform Economic Growth, Energy Policy, and Regulatory Affairs Subcommittee hearing on “Burning the Midnight Oil: Why Depleting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is Not a Solution to America’s Energy Problem, Part I.”

• CERAWeek. S&P Global’s CERAWeek event in Houston with the theme “Navigating a Turbulent World: Energy, Climate and Security.” Runs through Friday. Wednesday highlights include keynote remarks from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm.

• Covid origins. House Oversight and Reform Select Coronavirus Pandemic Subcommittee hearing on “Investigating the Origins of Covid-19.”

• CFTC Market Risk panel. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) meeting of the Market Risk Advisory Committee to discuss current topics and developments in the areas of central counterparty risk and governance, interest rate benchmark reform, climate-related risk, market structure, and innovative and emerging technologies affecting the derivatives and related financial markets.

• Global threats assessment. Senate Select Intelligence Committee hearing on “Annual Worldwide Threats Assessment.” CIA Director William Burns, FBI Director Christopher Wrap, and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines among those testifying.

• Unions. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on “Defending the Right of Workers to Organize Unions Free from Illegal Corporate Union-Busting.”

• Appropriations Member Day. House Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “Member Day.”

• U.S. ecosystem research. House Science, Space and Technology Committee hearing on “Innovation Through Collaboration: The Department of Energy’s Role in the U.S. Research Ecosystem.”

• Pipeline safety. House Transportation and Infrastructure Railroads, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee hearing on “Pipeline Safety: Reviewing Implementation of the PIPES Act of 2020 and Examining Future Safety Needs.”

• Evacuation of Afghanistan. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on “During and After the Fall of Kabul: Examining the Administration’s Emergency Evacuation from Afghanistan.”

• Wildfires. Senate Budget Committee hearing on “A Burning Issue: The Economic Costs of Wildfires.”

• U.S./China intellectual property. House Judiciary Courts, Intellectual Property, and the Internet Subcommittee hearing on “Intellectual Property and Strategic Competition with China: Part I.”

• FERC guidance. United States Energy Association (virtual discussion on “Energy Management: Distributed Energy Resources and FERC (Federal Energy Regulation Commission) Guidance.”

• Antitrust and big tech. American University Student Chapter of the Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a discussion on “Antitrust and Big Tech.”

• China’s North American footprint. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies discussion on “China’s Growing Footprint in North Africa: Money, Diplomacy, and Other Measures.”

• Biden administration spending oversight. House Financial Services Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing on “Holding the Biden Administration Accountable for Wasteful Spending and Regulatory Overreach.”

• Economic reports. ADP Employment Report | International Trade | JOLTS | Beige Book

• Energy reports. EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA weekly crude inventory | Earnings: Tullow Oil | Holiday: Angola, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia.

• USDA reports. WAOB: WASDE ERS: Livestock and Meat International Trade Data | US Agricultural Trade Data Update NASS: Crop Production | Cotton Ginnings | Broiler Hatchery FAS: Cotton: World Markets and Trade | Grains: World Markets and Trade | Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade | World Agricultural Production

Thursday, March 9

• Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr discusses Crypto at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

• Biden FY 2024 budget. Biden administration unveils fiscal year (FY) 2024 budget request; Q Roll Call reports initial release of the main summary with explanatory documents will be released March 13.

• Derivatives markets. House Agriculture Committee hearing on “Rising Risks: Managing Volatility in Global Commodity Derivatives Markets.”

• USDA OIG oversight. House Ag Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight Hearing — USDA, Office of Inspector General.”

• Ohio train derailment. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on “Protecting Public Health and the Environment in the Wake of the Norfolk Southern Train Derailment and Chemical Release in East Palestine, Ohio.”

• CERAWeek. S&P Global’s CERAWeek event in Houston with the theme “Navigating a Turbulent World: Energy, Climate and Security.” Runs through Friday. Thursday highlights include remarks from EPA Administrator Michael Regan.

• Clean energy and the IRA. The American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE) holds a forum on “Maximizing and Building on the Clean Energy Impacts of the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act).”

• Minerals and clean energy. Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program discussion on “The Changing Geopolitics of Critical Minerals and the Future of the Clean Energy Transition.”

• Farm Credit meeting. Farm Credit Administration holds a meeting.

• China threats to U.S. House Homeland Security Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence Subcommittee hearing on “Confronting Threats Posed by the Chinese Communist Party to the U.S. Homeland.”

• OPM oversight. House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing on “Oversight of Our Nation’s Largest Employer: Reviewing the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM).”

• Cryptocurrencies. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on cryptocurrencies.

• Markets reform. House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee hearing on “U.S. Public Markets Built for the 21st Century: Exploring Reforms to Make Our Public Markets Attractive for Small and Emerging Companies Raising Capital.”

• CFPB reform. House Financial Services Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee hearing on “Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: Ripe for Reform.”

• Global threats assessment. House Select Intelligence Committee hearing on “Annual Worldwide Threats Assessment.” CIA Director William Burns, FBI Director Christopher Wrap, and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines among those testifying.

• Nuclear fuel. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on “The Nuclear Fuel Cycle.”

• Russian terrorists. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) hearing on “Countering Russia’s Terroristic Mercenaries.”

• USAID. Senate Foreign Relations State Department and USAID Management, International Operations, and Bilateral International Development Subcommittees hearing on “USAID (US Agency for International Development) Localization: Challenges, Opportunities, and Next Steps to Further Development Initiatives on the Local Level.”

• Inflation. House Oversight and Accountability Health Care and Financial Services Subcommittee hearing on “Inflation: A Preventable Crisis.”

• Economic reports. Jobless Claims

• Energy reports. EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | Earnings: Harbour Energy.

• USDA reports. FAS: Export Sales ERS: Livestock and Meat International Trade Data | Season-Average Price Forecasts | Feed Grains Database | Meat Price Spreads | Wheat Data

Friday, March 10

• FY 2024 Biden budget. House Ways and Means Committee hearing on “President Biden’s FY 2024 Budget Request with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.”

• CERAWeek. Final day of the S&P Global CERAWeek event in Houston with the theme “Navigating a Turbulent World: Energy, Climate and Security.” Runs through Friday. Friday highlights include Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Ranking Member Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) holding a discussion on “What’s Next in Washington?”

• China policy shifts. Brookings Institution virtual discussion on “A Country in Flux: Recent and Future Policy Shifts in China.”

• 2022 elections. House Administration Elections Subcommittee hearing on “2022 Midterms Look Back Series: Successes in the 2022 Midterm Elections.”

• Ukraine aid in the 118th Congress. The Hudson Institute virtual discussion on “Support for Ukraine’s Defense in the 118th Congress.”

• China’s intentions on Taiwan. The United States Institute of Peace virtual discussion on “Are China’s Intentions Toward Taiwan Changing?”

• Economic reports. Employment | Treasury Budget

• Energy reports. ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil | Baker-Hughes Rig Count | CFTC Commitments of Traders

• USDA reports. ERS: Cotton and Wool Outlook Tables | Oil Crops Outlook | Feed Outlook | Wheat Outlook | Rice Outlook | US Agricultural Trade Data Update NASS: Price Reactions after USDA Crop Reports | Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports | Peanut Prices

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Russia/Ukraine war timeline | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 | New farm bill primer | China outlook | Omnibus spending package | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA ag outlook forum |