Europe’s Turn to Right Impacting Currencies… A Signal for the U.S.?

Iraq oil | Saudi ‘petrodollar’ | Port of Baltimore | ECO subsidy rate increased to 65% for 2025 insurance year

Jim Wiesemeyer

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June 10, 2024 08:23 AM

Iraq oil | Saudi ‘petrodollar’ | Port of Baltimore | ECO subsidy rate increased to 65% for 2025 insurance year

Today’s Digital Newspaper

MARKET FOCUS

Euro depreciates past $1.076, a 1-month low on fresh political uncertainty in Europe
Saudi ‘petrodollar’ agreement may not be renewed
Iraq to resume oil exports
Tesla shareholders to vote on $56 billion pay package for CEO Elon Musk
Elliott Investment Management has almost $2 billion stake in Southwest Airlines
In April, U.S. consumers unexpectedly reduced use of credit cards
Americans strongly dislike inflation: new research shows
Cost of owning a home in the U.S. has risen by 26% since 2020
Ag markets today
Ag trade update
NWS weather outlook
Pro Farmer First Thing Today items

BALTIMORE BRIDGE COLLAPSE

Coast Guard to reopen the Port of Baltimore channel following additional dredging

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

Centrist Benny Gantz resigns from Israel’s three-person war cabinet

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

Ukraine’s grain production, exports to fall sharply

POLICY

FCIC Board increases ECO subsidy rate to 65% for 2025 insurance year

CHINA

China threatens to retaliate against high EU tariffs
China’s sow herd shrinks, slaughter rises
U.S. and China: Trade and trade wars

TRADE POLICY

U.S. ag export percentages: Focus on corn, soybeans, and wheat

ENERGY POLICY

Price drop spurs additional offers for crude to put back in SPR.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

Wyoming became 12th state where bird flu has infected dairy cows
Restaurants becoming hot spot in retail real estate as Americans dine out more

HEALTH UPDATE

Cuomo to testify before New York House coronavirus subcommittee on Tuesday

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

Far-right gains in EU elections prompt Macron to call early French elections
Winners and losers in European parliamentary elections
Trump endorses Republican candidate Sam Brown in Nevada Senate GOP primary
Trump promises to cut taxes on tips at Nevada rally
Poll shows Biden and Trump basically tied nationally and in battleground states
NYT Report: Burgum emerging as ‘safest’ pick for Trump VP

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

Biden mulls granting legal status to undocumented immigrants married to Americans

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings. European stocks fell as traders reacted to initial results from the EU vote and French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for parliamentary elections. The euro slipped 0.4% against the U.S. dollar and 0.3% against the British pound. U.S. futures pointed to minor losses for stocks at the opening bell, while Treasury yields headed higher again. Investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and projections, due Wednesday. In Asia, Japan +0.9%. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India -0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -1.8%. Frankfurt -0.7%.

U.S. equities Friday and for the week: All three major indices managed to trade in positive territory following the stronger than expected jobs update but finished lower. For the week, the Dow was up 0.3%, the Nasdaq rose 2.4% and the S&P 500 gained 1.3%. On Friday, the Dow fell 87.18 points, 0.22%, at 38,798.99. The Nasdaq lost 39.99 points, 0.23%, at 17,133.13. The S&P 500 eased 5.97 points, 0.11%, at 5,346.99.

— At Tesla’s annual meeting on Thursday, shareholders will vote on a $56 billion pay package for CEO Elon Musk that was previously voided by a Delaware judge. Musk and his supporters have been rallying votes on social media, arguing the package will keep his focus on Tesla. However, some large institutional investors, including Norway’s $1.7 trillion wealth fund, plan to vote against it.

— Elliott Investment Management has built an almost $2 billion stake in Southwest Airlines and plans to push for changes, the Wall Street Journal reported (link).

— Ag markets today: Corn and soybean futures trade on both sides of unchanged overnight but have firmed and are near session highs this morning. Wheat faced followthrough selling overnight. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading mostly 2 cents higher, soybeans were 1 to 4 cents higher, SRW wheat was 3 to 4 cents lower, HRW wheat was 8 to 10 cents lower and HRS wheat was 2 to 3 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index was around 400 points higher, and front-month crude oil futures were about 30 cents higher.

Wholesale beef stays strong. Wholesale beef prices firmed 54 cents for Choice and 31 cents for Select on Friday, while movement totaled 119 loads. After dropping last Wednesday, wholesale beef prices bounced back the final two days last week, helping support packer cutting margins, which are estimated to be in the black for most plants.

Summer hogs hold mild premiums to cash index. The CME lean hog index is down 17 cents to $91.75 as of June 6. June lean hog futures, which expire on Friday and are settled against the index on June 18, ended Friday at a 77.5-cent premium to the index. July lean hog futures held a $1.75 premium.

— Agriculture markets Friday and for the week:

Corn: July corn futures sunk 3 1/4 cents to $4.48 3/4 but gained 2 1/2 cents on the week.
Soy complex: July soybeans plummeted 20 3/4 cents to $11.79 1/4 and gave up 25 3/4 cents on the week. July soymeal fell $2.10 to $360.70 and ended $4.0 lower week-over-week. July soyoil fell 72 points to 43.63 cents, marking a 191-point drop on the week.
Wheat: July SRW wheat futures fell 12 cents to $6.27 1/2, near mid-range and hit a four-week low. For the week, July SRW fell 51 cents. July HRW wheat futures lost 12 1/4 cents to $6.65 3/4, near mid-range and hit a nearly four-week low. For the week, July HRW fell 43 cents. July spring wheat futures fell 12 1/4 cents to $6.94 1/2 and gave up 45 1/4 cents on the week.
Cotton: July cotton fell 160 points to 73.84 cents and closed down 231 points on the week.
Cattle: August live cattle futures fell 30 cents to $177.175, near mid-range and posted a three-week low close. For the week, August live cattle fell $1.275. August feeder cattle futures rose $2.075 at $254.925 and nearer the daily high. On the week, August feeders fell $1.475.
Hogs: The expiring June contract rose 37.5 cents to $92.525, while most-active July gained 52.5 to $93.50. The latter close represented a weekly drop of $3.60.

— Of note:

Mail drop. “We have roughly $39 billion worth of mail, and it costs me $70 billion to deliver it. This is not a monopoly, it’s an obligation.” — Postmaster General Louis DeJoy.
In April, consumers unexpectedly reduced their use of credit cards, with revolving credit — where credit and bank cards are categorized — declining by $500 million (0.4%). This is the first pullback in credit card use since April 2021. Overall consumer credit rose by $6.4 billion, with non-revolving credit, which includes loans like student loans, increasing by $6.8 billion. The decline in credit card usage may indicate consumer caution due to rising interest rates, potentially impacting the U.S. economy, as credit cards are often used for larger purchases paid off over time.

— Economists once saw high inflation as manageable, but Americans strongly dislike it, new research shows. Before the pandemic, many economists viewed high inflation as a manageable issue. Prominent economists had suggested a higher inflation target, such as 4%, to give the Fed more room to cut rates during economic downturns. However, the recent inflation experience has shown that Americans greatly dislike inflation, even at relatively modest levels. This has led to low consumer sentiment despite low unemployment and wage growth. The Wall Street Journal notes (link) that research by Harvard economist Stefanie Stantcheva highlights that people view inflation as mentally taxing, requiring constant budget adjustments and adding cognitive load. Despite some economists, like Olivier Blanchard, advocating for a higher inflation target in the future, Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, insist that the current 2% target should remain until inflation significantly decreases. Economists like Laurence Ball argue that people might not be as unhappy with a consistent 4% inflation rate if it became the norm. However, Jón Steinsson and others believe that the current 2% target is sensible as it aligns with a level where people do not consider inflation in their decision-making.

— Cost of owning a home in the U.S. has risen by 26% since 2020 due to increased expenses such as taxes, insurance, and utilities amid high inflation. According to Bankrate, the average annual cost for owning and maintaining a typical single-family home, excluding mortgage payments, was $18,118 in March.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was firmer, with the euro and British pound both weaker against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was higher, trading around 4.46%, with a higher tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were higher, with U.S. crude around $75.60 per barrel and Brent around $79.70 per barrel. Gold and silver were mixed, with gold lower around $2,314 per troy ounce and silver higher around $29.75 per troy ounce.

— Euro depreciated past $1.076, a 1-month low on fresh political uncertainty in Europe after far-right parties gained ground in the European Parliament elections. In a surprise move, French President Macron called for snap elections after Marine Le Pen’s National Rally got more than 30% of the votes.

— Saudi ‘petrodollar’ agreement may not be renewed. Reports over the weekend said Saudi Arabia’s “petrodollar” agreement with the U.S., which expired Sunday, may not be renewed. The 50-year agreement was put in place in 1974. The petrodollar agreement saw Saudi Arabia sell its oil exclusively in U.S. dollars, with the U.S. promising military security and economic development. The reports said Saudi Arabia is now working more closely with China, which is trying to undermine the global dominance of the greenback.

— Ag trade update: South Korea tendered to buy 90,000 MT of milling wheat – 50,000 MT U.S. and 40,000 MT Canadian.

— NWS weather outlook: There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains and Southeast on Monday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern tip of Florida on Tuesday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over Northern/Central California and Southwest on Tuesday.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Corn and beans firmer, wheat weaker to start the week
• Drier pattern for most U.S. crop regions this week
• NOPA revises April soybean crush

BALTIMORE BRIDGE COLLAPSE

— The Coast Guard plans to reopen the Port of Baltimore channel following additional dredging, marking the final step in clearing 50,000 tons of debris. The full reopening of the federal channel, expected to bring larger vessels back to Baltimore, is seen as a major milestone. Companies are beginning to schedule shipments to Baltimore, with full recovery anticipated by mid-July. The port’s strategic location makes it a prime hub for freight, benefiting from increased resilience and warehouse space post-pandemic. Challenges remain, such as potential strains on road infrastructure due to increased truck traffic and global shipping disruptions.

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

— Centrist Benny Gantz announced his resignation from Israel’s three-person war cabinet, accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of obstructing a true victory. Gantz aims to undermine Netanyahu’s governing coalition with this move, which might inadvertently empower hard-line, ultranationalist ministers. This announcement follows an Israeli raid in central Gaza that freed four hostages kidnapped on Oct. 7 but resulted in the deaths of Palestinians.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— Ukraine’s grain production, exports to fall sharply. Ukraine’s 2024 grain production is forecast to fall 7.0 MMT (11.7%) from last year to 52.8 MMT, analyst APK-Inform said, including 26.8 MMT of corn, 20.0 MMT of wheat and 4.5 MMT of barley. APK-Inform’s forecast is close to the ag ministry’s 52.4 MMT projection. APK-Inform projects 2024-25 grain exports 36.2 MMT, down 12.9 MMT (26.2%) from the current marketing year. New-crop exports are expected to include 21.3 MMT of corn, 12.7 MMT of wheat and 1.8 MMT of barley.

POLICY UPDATE

— FCIC Board increases ECO subsidy rate to 65% for 2025 insurance year. The Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) Board recently approved an increase in the subsidy rate for the Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO), effective from the 2025 insurance year starting after July 1, 2024. The subsidy rate for ECO will rise from 44% to 65%, aligning it with the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) endorsement. This change, irrespective of current farm bill discussions, aims to boost interest in ECO by lowering coverage costs.

ECO offers additional county-based shallow-loss coverage on top of existing multi-peril revenue or yield policies and/or SCO endorsements, covering losses from 90% or 95% of a county’s expected revenue for the insured crop. ECO cannot be purchased with the Stacked Income Protection Plan (STAX) for cotton but can be combined with the USDA FSA Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) program, provided no SCO endorsement is also purchased.

— Boosted by the popularity of forage policies, crop insurance coverage exceeded 500 million acres in 2023, marking the highest level ever. Enrollment in crop insurance has surged 85% since 2016, according to USDA data. Taxpayer-subsidized crop insurance, the largest USDA agricultural support, is projected to cost $125 billion over 10 years, significantly higher than the $61 billion for traditional crop subsidies. Farmers pay roughly 38% of insurance premiums, with the government/taxpayers covering the rest. Link to details via USDA’s Amber Waves magazine.

While crop insurance receives bipartisan support, disagreements exist on enhancements. The House Agriculture Committee’s bill proposes larger premium subsidies and extended premium assistance for beginning and veteran farmers. Senate Agriculture Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) aims to make crop insurance more affordable, especially for new farmers and specialty crops.

Forage policies, such as the Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage plan, significantly contributed to the increased coverage, now representing a large share of insured acreage. Despite their extensive coverage, forage crops have relatively low monetary value.

Participation in livestock insurance programs has also grown, with insured liability through various plans more than doubling since 2021.

CHINA UPDATE

— China has threatened to retaliate against high EU tariffs, potentially targeting imports of European cars, aviation, and pork, which could hurt German carmakers like Volkswagen and BMW. This creates a potential split among European manufacturers that Beijing might exploit.

The EU aims to boost electric vehicle (EV) sales to meet its 2035 climate targets, a move some see as beneficial to China’s EV companies. The EU may start with temporary tariffs of around 20% on Chinese companies, allowing room for negotiation after the new EU Parliament selects key officials.

Trade expert David Kleimann notes that the EU must carefully balance giving domestic producers a competitive edge while catching up in EV innovation. He adds that China’s dominance in the EV supply chain means tariffs would need to exceed 40-50% to significantly impact Chinese manufacturers.

— China’s sow herd shrinks, slaughter rises. China’s sow herd totaled 39.86 million head at the end of April, down 6.9% from last year, according to the ag ministry. Hog slaughter during the first four months of this year rose 2.3% from the same period last year to 108.38 million head.

— U.S. and China: Trade and trade wars. China’s share of world manufacturing exports rose from just over 1% in 1990 to almost one-fifth today, one of the largest increases in manufacturing output ever recorded. Research by Gordon Hanson (Harvard) and his co-authors demonstrated the adverse effects of this huge increase on local labor markets in the United States. Tariffs by the Trump administration on Chinese goods in 2018 and 2019 that were meant to ‘bring jobs back,’ which the Biden Administration has kept in place, did not reverse these effects and lead to job recovery. But, despite this, there was a political benefit to Trump of these trade restrictions. Gordon discusses the economics and politics of U.S./China trade in the new EconoFact Chats podcast (link), The U.S. and China: Trade and Trade Wars, which include the following points (link to transcript):

Research by Gordon and his co-authors David Autor and David Dorn documented how the ‘China Shock’ led to factory closures and job losses in American cities and towns that had been producing things like apparel, shoes, furniture, and simple electronics.
Tariffs on Chinese imports were raised from 2% to almost 25% across the board in 2018 and 2019. This did not bring jobs back. Furthermore, retaliatory tariffs by the Chinese government on American agricultural goods and mineral products led to job losses in places that produced these goods. Subsidies by the Trump administration to offset these effects were hastily implemented and not effective but they did come at a cost to the American taxpayer.
Despite the lack of economic benefit, the Trump tariffs did offer a modest electoral benefit to Republican candidates, including Trump, in 2020. The narrative that these tariffs represented a stance against globalization seemed to have had a ready audience. But Gordon is skeptical that President Biden will enjoy a political benefit from keeping these tariffs in place.

TRADE POLICY

— U.S. ag export percentages: Focus on corn, soybeans, and wheat. U.S. exports play a crucial role in commodity prices, particularly for corn, soybeans, and wheat, as domestic production exceeds usage, according to a Southern Ag Today article (link).

Key findings from 2018-19 to 2022-23 highlight:

Corn exports: Dominated by the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, accounting for 85% of global exports.
Soybean exports: Led by Brazil, followed by the U.S. and Argentina, making up 90% of soybean exports and 84% of soybean meal exports.
Wheat exports: More diversified, with the U.S., Russia, EU, Canada, Australia, Ukraine, and Argentina comprising 84% of the market.

In 2022-23, Brazil surpassed the U.S. in corn exports and is projected to maintain its lead. Brazilian soybean exports nearly doubled those of the U.S. in the same period and are expected to remain the largest globally. For 2023-24, Brazil is estimated to export 50 MMT of corn and 102 MMT of soybeans, with projections for 2024-25 at 49 MMT of corn and 105 MMT of soybeans. The U.S. estimates for 2023-24 are slightly higher for corn at 55 MMT and 46 MMT of soybeans, with 2024-25 projections at 56 MMT of corn and 50 MMT of soybeans. Wheat export patterns have been stable despite geopolitical conflicts, with future uncertainties around Russia due to weather and war-related issues.

Weekly and daily USDA Foreign Agricultural Service reports on export sales are vital for commodity marketing. Positive export bookings typically support domestic prices, providing opportunities for producer sales. Weather events in other major exporting countries can influence U.S. commodity sales, particularly for corn and soybeans. Wheat’s global production makes it less sensitive to weather but more influenced by geopolitical events.

Exchange rates also impact exports, with a stronger USD making U.S. exports more expensive and a weaker USD enhancing competitiveness. Monitoring export trends and external factors is essential for optimizing commodity marketing strategies, the article concludes.

World Corn Exports by Country, 2018-19-2022-23 Marketing Years Average (%)

Soybean Exports by Country, 2018-19-2022-23 Marketing Year Average (%)

World Wheat Exports by Country, 2018-19-2022-23 Marketing Year Average (%)

ENERGY POLICY

— Price drop spurs additional offers for crude to put back in SPR. The Biden administration has put out two solicitations for the purchase of a total of six million barrels of crude oil to put in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) — 1.5 million barrels for delivery in September and 4.5 million barrels for delivery in October, November, and December. The bids are for supplies to be delivered to the Bayou Choctaw site. The recent fall in oil prices spurred the administration action.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Wyoming became the 12th state where bird flu has infected dairy cows. State Veterinarian Hallie Hasel on Friday confirmed the highly pathogenic avian influenza infection, stressing that the risk to human health and cattle is low. The disease primarily affects dairy production, causing decreased milk output. A federal order mandates testing dairy cows for the virus before interstate movement and imposes 30-day quarantines for infected cows. Biosecurity measures are crucial to preventing spread, including cleanliness, limiting wildlife traffic, segregating infected animals, and regular monitoring. USDA assures that pasteurization kills the virus in milk, but raw milk poses risks. States permitting raw milk sales are urged to take regulatory actions to prevent public exposure. Meat is considered safe due to rigorous inspection processes, and fully cooking meat is advised to eliminate any pathogens.

As of the latest reports, dairy cattle infected with bird flu have been identified in 12 states in the United States. These states are:

Colorado
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
Michigan
Minnesota
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
South Dakota
Texas
Wyoming

— Restaurants are becoming a hot spot in retail real estate as Americans dine out more than ever, according to the Wall Street Journal (link). In 2022, food services accounted for over 19% of all retail leases, the highest proportion since 2007. This shift is driven by low unemployment, rising wages, and a cultural shift toward dining out, particularly among millennials who tend to marry and have children later.

Post-pandemic, restaurant spending has surged, with total sales expected to exceed $1.1 trillion in 2024. The average household now spends nearly 53% of its food budget on dining out, a record high. Property owners, once wary of restaurants as tenants, are now eager to lease to them due to increased foot traffic and higher rents.

Chains like Chipotle have thrived, opening numerous new locations with drive-through options. Despite rising costs and some challenges for independent operators, the overall restaurant industry continues to grow.

HEALTH UPDATE

— Cuomo to testify before New York House coronavirus subcommittee on Tuesday. Former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo is scheduled to appear Tuesday in a closed-door hearing before a congressional subcommittee probing New York’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic — and the circumstances that led to the deaths of more than 15,000 nursing home residents. The subcommittee’s focus has been a 2020 directive to New York’s nursing homes to allow residents afflicted with Covid-19 to remain in or return to those facilities.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— French President Emmanuel Macron announced he would dissolve the country’s parliament and call for new elections following a significant defeat in the European Parliament vote. Macron’s party was decisively beaten by Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs in France. This sentiment was echoed in Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats experienced their worst result ever, highlighting broader discontent with mainstream political parties in Europe.

— Far-right gains in EU elections prompt Macron to call early French elections. Hundreds of millions of Europeans voted to select 720 Members of the European Parliament, leading to significant political shifts. Rising support for the far right prompted Emmanuel Macron to call early elections in France. (Link for details via euronews).

In the European parliamentary elections, key outcomes include:

Winners:

France’s far-right National Rally won, defeating Macron.
The right-wing EPP group remained the largest in Parliament, gaining 13 seats.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni secured about 28% of the vote, reinforcing her influence.

Losers:

The Greens in Austria and Germany underperformed.
The liberal Renew group lost 20 seats.
Germany’s Social Democrats, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, finished joint second with the far-right AfD, behind the EPP.

— Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican candidate Sam Brown in the Nevada Senate GOP primary through a post on Truth Social late Sunday evening. Interestingly, Trump did not mention this endorsement during his Las Vegas rally earlier the same day. This last-minute endorsement is aimed at providing a boost to Brown’s campaign. Brown, backed by the NRSC, is facing a challenge from Trump’s former ambassador to Iceland, Jeff Gunter.

— Trump promises to cut taxes on tips at Nevada rally. Bloomberg reports (link) former President Donald Trump promised to cut taxes on tipped earnings for hospitality workers during a rally in Nevada on Sunday. According to Bloomberg, Trump is “calibrating his message for swing-state voters,” and is working “to appeal to Nevada’s booming service industry dominated by young workers and people of color, two voter groups he’s courting as he heads toward the Republican National Convention in mid-July.” Reuters reports (link) the claim comes as polling shows Nevada “leaning” toward Trump “ahead of the Nov. 5 election,” and “adds one more detail to a Trump tax plan that has included vague pledges of tax relief to middle-income workers and small businesses.”

— A new CBS News/YouGov poll shows President Biden and former President Donald Trump basically tied nationally and in battleground states. The poll found that Trump received 50% support nationally among likely voters, while Biden received 49%. In battleground states, 50% of likely voters selected Biden, while 49% backed Trump, according to CBS (link). Among all the factors on voters’ minds this election, Trump’s guilty verdict “pales in comparison to issues like the economy, inflation, and the border — all items on which Trump maintains advantages. As such, the verdict has not dramatically reshaped the race.”

— NYT Report: Burgum emerging as “safest” pick for Trump VP. The New York Times reports (link) North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s (R) “long-held scruples over being seen as an attention-monger have hurled the longtime Republican out of political obscurity and into the limelight as one of a handful of the leading contenders in Donald J. Trump’s search for a running mate.” According to the NYT, Burgum “has become perhaps the safest option on Mr. Trump’s list — and the biggest wild card,” as he is “largely untested on a national stage.” The Times goes on to profile Burgum, who worked as a chimney sweep in college and made millions in the software industry.

KEY LINKS

Policy Updates