EU Immediately Retaliates Against U.S. Metal Tariffs

Senate to vote on CR after House approves | Push to reinstate biodiesel blender credit | Inflation rate hits 2.8% in February, less than expected

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March 12, 2025 08:00 AM

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 12, 2025

— The House passed a funding bill to avert an end-of-the-week government shutdown, clearing the resolution (CR) in a largely party-line 217-213 vote, with just one Democrat — Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) — bucking his party’s leaders to back the measure. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) was the lone GOP “no” vote. While the bill keeps spending around current levels, it increases defense outlays by around $6 billion, while lowering nondefense spending by $13 billion compared with 2024 fiscal year levels.

It now heads to the Senate where it will need 60 votes to pass. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) is the only Republican not expected to support the bill. The unknown is whether eight Democrats will cross the aisle to approve the bill. Punchbowl News reports one senator suggested some Democrats vote with Republicans to end the filibuster on the funding bill, allowing Republicans to pass it with a simple majority in the vote on final passage. If the Senate can’t pass the stopgap prior to midnight Friday, when current funding expires, the government’s likely to shut down.

Meanwhile, the House adjourned and started a week-long district work period earlier than expected. House Democrats will head to Leesburg, Va., for their annual retreat. Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) will lead a conversation with Govs. Andy Beshear, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer, while Democratic Whip Katherine Clark will moderate a panel featuring Dan Pfeiffer of Pod Save America. The remaining lineup of guests includes strategists, pollsters, data analysts, and messaging experts, including Democratic consultant James Carville. There’s a special emphasis on swing districts.

— Trump escalates global trade tensions with sweeping steel and aluminum tariffs; EU immediately retaliates. President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, aiming to boost U.S. manufacturing but risking higher consumer prices and a global trade war. The European Union quickly retaliated with countermeasures on U.S. exports, while Canada narrowly avoided even steeper tariffs after negotiations (see next item). The move marks Trump’s first universal tariff policy in his second term, reversing exemptions granted under the Biden administration. Economists warn that higher tariffs could drive up costs for industries reliant on these metals, from automobiles to infrastructure, potentially straining both American businesses and consumers.

Details: The EU unveiled countermeasures on up to €26 billion ($28 billion) worth of American goods exports, including tariffs on boats, bourbon and motorbikes. Agricultural products will also be impacted — including poultry, beef, some seafood, nuts, eggs, sugar and vegetables. The EU’s tariffs will target specific agricultural products from Republican-held states, such as soybeans in the Midwest and beef and poultry in Kansas and Nebraska. Produce from Alabama, Georgia, and Virginia is also included in the list of targeted goods. The measures, which will come into force in April, are “swift and proportionate,” it said in a statement (link). The EU action will involve two steps: First, on April 1, the Commission will reintroduce what it calls “rebalancing measures,” which the EU had from 2018 and 2020, but which were suspended under the Biden administration. Then on April 13 come the additional duties targeting 18 billion euros ($19.6 billion) in U.S. exports to the bloc.

China has replaced the U.S. as the top EU export destination for steel and aluminum. The U.S. is now imposing a 45% total tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum — higher than the 25% tariff applied to other countries — due to an existing 20% tariff on all Chinese imports. However, direct imports of Chinese steel to the U.S. are minimal. Instead, Chinese steel often enters the U.S. indirectly, either rerouted through third-party countries or mislabeled and resold through various channels.

Of note: Canada was the top source of iron, steel and aluminum sent to the U.S. last year, with the U.S. importing $11.4 billion worth of aluminum and $7.6 billion worth of iron and steel from there. Aluminum and steel are used heavily in an extensive list of goods, and tariffs on both metals could significantly raise prices for Americans.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration said U.S. tariff processing systems certified. The U.S. Dept. of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security has filed a notice confirming that systems are in place to efficiently process and collect tariff revenue under the steel and aluminum tariffs effective today (March 12). This certification, required under the proclamation implementing the tariffs, will be published in the Federal Register on March 14 (link).

Britain will not issue its own immediate measures in response to the U.S. tariffs but the government said it would “reserve our right to retaliate.”

— Canada and Trump administration reach agreement on not escalating tariffs. Tuesday afternoon Ontario Premier Doug Ford held a call with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, during which they agreed to scrap the electricity surcharge in exchange for a U.S. relaxation of the steel and aluminum tariffs.

Additionally, Ford said he secured a meeting on Thursday with Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss a path toward a renewed U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact ahead of Trump’s April 2 deadline to impose reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. “I’m not out to hurt the American people,” Ford, the leader of Canada’s most-populous province, told reporters in Toronto. “Sometimes you have to play your cards, and this is one of the cards we played, and hopefully we’re going to have a very good constructive conversation.”

“A 25% U.S. tariff on steel and aluminum with no exceptions or exemptions will go into effect for Canada and all of our other trading partners at midnight, March 12th,” White House Spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.

Facts and figures. In 2024, Canada — the top supplier of foreign steel to the United States — sent nearly 7 million tons of steel to American customers, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute. Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Vietnam rounded out the top five import sources.

— Trump denies tariff exemption for Australia. Australia’s lobbying efforts to secure a steel and aluminum tariff exemption have failed, as President Donald Trump has ruled out any carve-outs for U.S. trading partners. White House officials confirmed the tariffs would take effect from midnight Wednesday, despite Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s push for relief ahead of Australia’s upcoming election. Trump had previously suggested he would consider an exemption but ultimately decided against it.

— Meat Institute Urges USTR to remove trade barriers and expand market access. The Meat Institute has urged the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to eliminate non-tariff trade barriers and expand market access for U.S. meat and poultry products. In comments submitted to USTR Jamieson Greer, the Meat Institute highlighted concerns over unfair trade practices that hinder industry growth.

Meat Institute President and CEO Julie Anna Potts emphasized the Trump Administration’s opportunity to advance U.S. leadership in global trade, noting that policies promoting open markets and reduced trade barriers benefit American workers and the economy.

Key industry concerns include:
· China’s failure to meet Phase 1 trade commitments and retaliatory tariffs on U.S. meat.
· Regulatory obstacles limiting beef and pork exports to Taiwan.
· Trade barriers restricting access to growing Southeast Asian markets.
· Ongoing restrictions under the U.S./Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS).
· EU and UK policies that limit U.S. meat and poultry exports.
· Rising establishment registration requirements affecting global market access.

The Meat Institute underscored the economic significance of the meat and poultry sector, which generates $227.9 billion annually and supports over 532,000 jobs. In 2021 alone, U.S. meat and poultry exports contributed over $44 billion to the economy.

— U.S. resumes Ukraine military aid amid ceasefire agreement. The U.S. will restart military aid and intelligence support for Ukraine after Kyiv agreed to a Trump administration-backed 30-day ceasefire proposal. The decision followed high-level talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, between U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Ukrainian representatives. The ceasefire, contingent on Russia’s acceptance, aims to pave the way for broader peace negotiations. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the discussions, Russian reactions were mixed, with some pro-Kremlin figures dismissing the deal as a ploy to halt Russian advances. The agreement underscores Ukraine’s reliance on U.S. support, with officials warning that a perceived U.S. retreat could embolden Russia.

— Greenland chooses caution on independence. Greenland’s voters opted for a more measured approach to independence, handing Demokraatit a surprise victory in a general election overshadowed by Trump’s Arctic ambitions. The socially liberal party secured 29.9% of the vote, emerging as the largest. Meanwhile, Naleraq, which advocates for the quickest break from Denmark, finished second, highlighting divisions on the issue.

— EPA opposes June deadline for Atrazine review. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has urged a court not to impose a June deadline for completing its re-evaluation of the herbicide Atrazine. The agency stated that it is still in a comment period and anticipates responding by December 2025. Additionally, the EPA must wait for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s final biological opinion, expected by March 2026, before taking final action by September 30, 2026. The agency argues that a court-ordered deadline is unnecessary, as it is making progress and adhering to its obligations under the Endangered Species Act. The court has not yet ruled on the matter.

PERSONNEL

— Bowman expected to be tapped for Fed’s top regulatory role. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is expected to be nominated by the Trump administration as the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal report. She would succeed Michael Barr, who stepped down earlier this year to avoid conflicts with the administration. Bowman, previously mentioned as a likely successor, has recently spoken on banking regulation. Her nomination is not expected to face significant opposition. Confirmed as a Fed governor in 2019, she holds a 14-year term.

— HHS restructures legal office to cut costs, shift priorities. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is consolidating its Office of the General Counsel, reducing its regional offices from ten to four to cut costs. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stated that the agency is recruiting higher-quality personnel to refocus on public health over industry interests. The reorganization, part of Kennedy’s “Make America Healthy Again” agenda, includes a new senior role overseeing food, research, and drug policy. This follows Kennedy’s broader efforts to challenge industry influence, including a push for food companies to eliminate artificial dyes.

Details: The reorganization creates a senior role of chief counsel for Food, Research, and Drugs, which will be filled by Robert Foster, the current chief counsel of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The agency placed Hilary Perkins, formerly of the Department of Justice’s Consumer Protection Division, as chief counsel at the FDA.

— USDA to reinstate fired probationary workers. USDA will comply with a Merit Systems Protection Board order to temporarily reinstate nearly 6,000 probationary employees fired by the administration. By today (March 12), the agency will place all affected workers in pay status and provide back pay from their termination date. They will be reinstated for 45 days while a legal challenge to their dismissal continues. USDA is developing a phased return-to-duty plan, though the long-term status of these employees remains uncertain as federal agencies prepare for major staff reductions.

— Department of Education cuts workforce amid proposed elimination. The U.S. Department of Education is reducing nearly 50% of its workforce as President Trump pushes to eliminate the agency entirely. Education Secretary Linda McMahon stated that the cuts reflect a commitment to efficiency, accountability, and prioritizing resources for students, parents, and teachers. Senior officials assured that federal student aid would remain unaffected, though experts have expressed concerns about the department’s ability to fulfill its responsibilities with such a drastic reduction. The White House has drafted an executive order directing McMahon to begin dismantling the agency. These layoffs align with broader efforts by the Trump administration and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency to reduce the size of the federal government, following similar cuts at other agencies.

Of note: A Trump administration official said Tuesday’s purge won’t impact things like formula funding, Pell Grants, and civil rights investigations, but several buildings across the country are expected to close.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings, especially following today’s CPI report that showed U.S. inflation at a less than expected rate. In Asia, Japan +0.1%. Hong Kong -0.8%. China -0.2%. India -0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +1.1%. Frankfurt +1.5%.

Equities yesterday: A volatile day in the U.S. stock market ended with all three major indices finishing lower despite the Nasdaq and S&P 500 spending time above unchanged until late in the session. The Dow finished down 478.23 points, 1.14%, at 41,433.48. The Nasdaq fell 32.73 points, 0.18%, at 17,436.10. The S&P 500 declined 42.49 points, 0.76%, at 5,572.07.

— U.S. inflation slows slightly, easing market concerns. The U.S. inflation rate reached 2.8% in February, coming in lower than the 2.9% expected by economists. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% for the month, with core CPI — excluding food and energy — also increasing by 0.2%, bringing its annual rate to 3.1%. Egg prices increased 10.4% from January when they rose 15.2% with those prices now 58.8% higher in February 2025 than they were in February 2024. But eggs only account for 0.194% of overall inflation while food accounts for 13.68% of overall CPI. Markets responded positively, with stock futures holding gains and long-term Treasury yields edging lower. Concerns over potential tariff impacts on inflation remain a key focus for businesses and consumers.

Of note: The index for food increased 0.2% in February, after rising 0.4% in January. The food at home index was unchanged over the month as declines in four of the six major grocery store food group indexes were offset by increases in the remaining two. The index for other food at home decreased 0.5% in February as did the index for fruits and vegetables and the index for nonalcoholic beverages. The dairy and related products index declined 1.0% over the month. Driven primarily by a 10.4% increase in the index for eggs, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 1.6% in February. The beef index also increased over the month, rising 2.4%. The index for cereals and bakery products rose 0.4% in February, after falling 0.4% in January. The food away from home index rose 0.4% in February. The index for full-service meals rose 0.4% over the month and the index for limited-service meals rose 0.3%. The food at home index rose 1.9% over the last 12 months. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 7.7% over the last 12 months as the index for eggs increased 58.8%. The nonalcoholic beverages index increased 2.1% over the same period, while the dairy and related products index rose 0.8%, and the cereals and bakery products index increased 0.3%. The index for other food at home increased 0.1% over the year. In contrast, the fruits and vegetables index decreased 0.2% over the same period. The food away from home index rose 3.7% over the last year. The index for full-service meals also rose 3.7% and the index for limited-service meals rose 3.5% over the same period.

— Fed faces data blackout amid possible government shutdown. A looming government shutdown threatens to deprive the Federal Reserve of crucial economic data, including job and inflation figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Without this data, the Fed may struggle to navigate inflation and employment trends, potentially adding to market uncertainty that has already cost global stocks $4 trillion. Chair Jay Powell has emphasized data-driven decision-making, and officials worry that operating without key reports could leave them flying blind as they consider future interest rate moves.

— Lagarde warns of economic uncertainty, stresses ECB’s inflation commitment. At the 25th ECB and Its Watchers conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted major economic challenges, including trade, defense, and climate issues, which could drive inflation volatility. She reaffirmed the ECB’s commitment to its 2% inflation target despite unpredictable shocks. Lagarde stressed the need for policy agility in response to geopolitical and trade uncertainties, which she compared to Cold War-era risks. While offering no definitive rate guidance, she underscored a data-driven approach to future monetary policy decisions.

— U.S. mortgage rates drop to lowest since December. Mortgage rates in the U.S. declined for a sixth consecutive week, reaching their lowest level since early December, boosting both purchase and refinancing activity. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.67% in early March, while the 15-year fixed rate dropped to 6.04%, its lowest since October, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This decline, ahead of the spring home-buying season, provides relief to a housing market struggling with high prices. Mortgage applications for home purchases rose 7%, and refinancing activity surged over 16%, signaling renewed interest from borrowers. Rates have been tracking Treasury yields, which stabilized after falling in February amid economic concerns and stock market volatility.

AG MARKETS

— Ag markets today:

Grains face pressure overnight from trade tensions tied to metals tariffs. Corn, soybeans and wheat faced selling pressure overnight amid risk aversion. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 5 to 7 cents lower, soybeans were mostly 8 cents lower, and wheat was 2 to 4 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index was up around 250 points, and front-month crude oil futures were about 70 cents higher.
Choice beef continues to strengthen. Wholesale Choice beef prices firmed $3.62 to $321.20 on Tuesday while Select slipped 9 cents to $306.86. Movement strengthened to 146 loads, including 109 boxes of Choice cuts. Choice beef has firmed $10.43 since Feb. 21, which has improved packer margins, though they remain deep in the red.
Cash hog fundamentals continue to ease. The CME lean hog index is down a penny to $89.70 as of March 10, the fifth straight daily decline, though the total drop during that period is only 50 cents. The pork cutout fell 64 cents to $97.58 on Tuesday, led by losses in primal bellies.

— Ag trade: Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Iran tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of corn from Brazil, Europe of the Black Sea region, 120,000 MT of feed barley from the EU or Black Sea region and 120,000 MT of soymeal from Brazil or Argentina.

— WASDE on tariffs: “The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place. U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2 for all products covered under USMCA, which include most agricultural products in the WASDE. Reciprocal tariffs are also scheduled to begin on April 2. However, until these are in effect, WASDE does not incorporate them into commodity forecasts. Despite U.S. tariffs being suspended, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain in place. These are accounted for in WASDE estimates and are assumed to continue. U.S. tariffs on China and China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. are assumed to remain in place.”

Of note: Not many impacts from tariffs for this marketing year.

— WASDE on U.S. eggs: “Egg production is lowered due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling of the egg laying flock through early March that is expected to affect production through the first three quarters of 2025.”

— Little change expected in Canadian planting intentions. Analysts expect Statistics Canada to show Canadian farmers intend to plant 26.9 million acres to wheat, according to a Bloomberg survey, which would be up 300,000 acres from last year. Canola seedings are expected to come in at 21.7 million acres, down 300,000 acres from year-ago. Little year-over-year change is also expected for barley, soybean and lentils planting intentions. Analysts expect oats plantings to rise 12.1% from year-ago, though total seedings are anticipated at only 3.3 million acres.

— Argentine oilseed workers stage strike over wages. The SOEA union of Argentine oilseed workers kicked off a strike at Vicentin’s San Lorenzo and Ricardone plants in Rosario on Tuesday. That will expand across the country and the Federacion Aceitera organization will join in the indefinite strike due to a wage dispute. An internal document from Vicentin, seen by Reuters, said that the firm was “unable to pay the full amount of February’s accrued wages” and that employees were scheduled to be paid 30% of what was owed to them on March 10. Vicentin’s inability to fully pay is due to a “critical financial situation,” the document read. Vicentin has been in bankruptcy proceedings since 2020.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:
• Corn: May corn futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.70 1/4 and near the daily low.
• Soy complex: May soybeans fell 2 3/4 cents to $10.11 1/4, while May soymeal fell 50 cents to $301.80. May soyoil fell 33 points to 41.93 cents. Each ended near session lows.
• Wheat: May SRW futures fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.66 3/4 and closed near session lows. May HRW futures slid 7 1/2 cents to $5.72, closing on session lows. May HRS fell 8 cents to $5.96 1/2.
• Cotton: May cotton was unchanged at 66.00 cents, forging a mid-range close.
• Cattle: April live cattle futures slid $1.025 to $199.55 and closed nearer session lows.
April feeder cattle fell 22.5 cents to $277.70.
• Hogs: April lean hogs fell $1.75 to $86.55, near the daily low.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Energy markets today: Oil prices edged higher due to the weaker dollar, but gains were limited by fears of a U.S. economic slowdown and tariffs hurting global growth.
Brent futures were up 1.1% at $70.31 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 1.2% at $67.02 a barrel.

— Oil prices on Tuesday edged higher amid dollar weakness, market uncertainty. Oil prices ticked up on Tuesday, bolstered by a weaker U.S. dollar but constrained by concerns over a U.S. economic slowdown and tariffs. Brent rose $0.28 (0.4%) to $69.56, while WTI gained $0.22 (0.3%) to $66.25, after both fell 1.5% in the previous session. Market uncertainty grew on intraday tariff issues. Meanwhile, the EIA raised its U.S. production forecast to a record 13.61 million bpd, and OPEC+ reaffirmed plans to increase output in April, leaving room for adjustments if prices remain low. Traders now await U.S. inflation data and crude inventory reports, expected to show rising stockpiles alongside declines in gasoline and distillates.

— Iowa biodiesel plants idled amid tax credit uncertainty. The expiration of the $1-per-gallon blenders tax credit on December 31, 2024, has led to the shutdown of multiple biodiesel plants in Iowa. Industry leaders face uncertainty as the U.S. Treasury Department has yet to finalize rules for the replacement 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. Around five of Iowa’s ten biodiesel plants are idled, with supply chains disrupted. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) criticized the Biden administration for the situation, calling for increased Renewable Volume Obligations. (See next item.)

— Push to reinstate biodiesel blender credit gains momentum. Industry groups representing truckers, fuel marketers, and convenience store operators are urging Congress to reinstate the expired 40A Biodiesel Tax Credit. In a letter (link) to House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-Mass.), they warned that the credit’s expiration has led to volatility in diesel markets and could drive up costs for trucking, home heating, and rail industries. They also criticized the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA/Climate Act) biofuel policies for lacking sufficient incentives to integrate advanced biofuels. Despite mounting pressure, Congress has yet to signal movement on reinstating the credit.

TRADE POLICY

— China challenges Canada’s tariffs at WTO. China has requested consultations with Canada at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, including batteries, semiconductors, solar products, and critical minerals. This follows an earlier challenge on Sept. 6 regarding Canada’s 100% surtax on Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% levy on steel and aluminum imports. The latest request resets the 60-day consultation period, marking the first step in the WTO dispute settlement process.

CONGRESS

— More info on House-passed CR. Lawmakers have said there’s an agreement to treat the full-year stopgap as a legitimate appropriations bill and therefore don’t expect the White House to order the automatic 1% spending cut that was required under the June 2023 debt-limit deal if a continuing resolution was in place at the end of April

USDA programs: The measure would provide $7.6 billion for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, up from $7 billion in fiscal 2024. The White House requested the increase, stating that recipients would face waitlists for the first time in 25 years without it.

It also would reduce funding for several accounts, including:

$1.1 billion for the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service’s salaries and expense.
$895.8 million for conservation operations at the Natural Resources Conservation Service.
$478.5 million for the rural waste and disposal programs at the Rural Utilities Service.

The measure would cut all funding for the Agricultural Research Service’s buildings and facilities account, which received $57.2 million in fiscal 2024.

Immigration extensions: The measure would extend through Sept. 30 DHS’s authority to increase the number of H-2B temporary non-agricultural worker visas above the statutory cap if the Labor Department determines there aren’t enough US workers willing, qualified, and able to perform such work. The provision has been included in annual appropriations law since fiscal 2017.

The measure also would extend through Sept. 30:

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services’ E-Verify program, a website that allows business to determine whether an employee is eligible to work in the U.S.
The authority to provide special immigrant status for certain Afghan nationals.

— Senators push for expanded USDA loan access with PACE Act. Sens. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) have reintroduced the Producer and Agricultural Credit Enhancement (PACE) Act to modernize USDA loan limits, improving access to credit for farmers and ranchers. Presented at a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, the legislation aims to be included in the next farm bill.

The PACE Act proposes raising loan caps for the Farm Service Agency’s (FSA) Direct and Guaranteed Loan Programs, adjusting inflation benchmarks, expanding microloan limits, and offering refinancing options for distressed borrowers. Supported by major agricultural organizations, the bill has a bipartisan companion measure in the U.S. House.

FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Egg prices continue setting records. According to the Farm Bureau (link), egg prices in 2025 have surged over 350% compared to last year, driven by inflation and a severe outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The disease has decimated poultry populations, with over 166 million birds affected since 2022, reducing egg supplies and pushing prices to record highs.

Unlike past outbreaks, HPAI has persisted year-round, spreading through wild birds and backyard flocks. The USDA reported the national average price for a dozen large Grade A eggs reached $8.15 on March 4, 2025. Meanwhile, inflation continues to elevate production costs, adding to the financial strain on farmers. Despite high prices, egg farmers face significant losses due to the destruction of infected flocks and prolonged recovery times.

The report’s bottom line: While the industry has shown resilience, the challenges of disease outbreaks and rising costs highlight the volatility of egg production in today’s market.

Of note: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters it will take three to six months to “get the egg supply back to where it should be.” USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and House Republicans have cited statistics showing the cost of eggs dropping. Rollins told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that the cost of a dozen eggs has gone down $1.85 since she announced her bird flu plan.

— Brazilian egg exports set to surge 62% in 2025 amid U.S. shortages. Brazil’s egg exports are projected to rise by 62% in 2025, reaching 30,000 tonnes, as the U.S. grapples with inflation and supply chain disruptions caused by avian flu. Despite this sharp increase, exports will still represent only 1% of Brazil’s total production, according to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA). While Brazil is authorized to export processed eggs to the U.S., these products must first be converted into liquid or powdered form before reaching consumers. Rising American egg prices have triggered a Department of Justice investigation into potential anticompetitive practices by major corporations.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates and Angola are also increasing their demand for Brazilian eggs. Domestically, Brazil’s egg production is expected to grow 2.4% in 2025 to 59 billion units, with per capita consumption projected to rise to 272 eggs per person.

— Brazilian chicken exports hit record high in February. Brazilian chicken exports set a record for February, with shipments of fresh and processed poultry rising 17.9% year-over-year. A total of 468,400 tonnes were exported, generating $870.4 million in revenue — up 23.1% from February 2024. Over the first two months of 2025, exports reached 911,400 tonnes (+13.6%), with revenue climbing 22% to $1.7 billion. China remained the top destination, importing 49,600 tonnes (+18.1%), while South Africa saw the largest increase at +36.1%. Paraná led all states in poultry exports, shipping 186,000 tonnes (+15.9%). ABPA President Ricardo Santin cited strong global demand amid supply chain disruptions and avian flu concerns, suggesting Brazil may exceed initial projections.

— Steak ’n Shake goes MAHA and MAGA. Steak ’n Shake is embracing “Make America Healthy Again” by switching from vegetable oil to beef tallow for frying. The brand has also leaned into MAGA culture, posting memes featuring Cybertrucks delivering fries on Mars. Fox’s Sean Hannity recently interviewed Trump’s health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., at a Florida Steak ’n Shake, where Kennedy praised the switch, saying, “They turned me into a verb.”

— USDA, HHS advance dietary guidelines review process. Following the first meeting of the Make America Healthy Again Commission, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. reaffirmed their commitment to finalizing the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. With public comments now closed, the agencies are reviewing the prior administration’s scientific report and aim to release the final guidelines by Dec. 31, 2025. Rollins emphasized a shift away from “leftist ideologies,” while Kennedy stressed the importance of serving public health over special interests. Future improvements to the process will focus on transparency and minimizing conflicts of interest.

— HHS secretary warns food companies on artificial dyes. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has warned food companies to eliminate artificial dyes from their products or face federal action under the Trump administration. According to an email seen by Reuters, the FDA plans to collaborate with the industry to establish a federal framework, aiming to prevent a patchwork of state regulations. Reports indicate that companies were urged to act voluntarily before government intervention mandates the removal of these dyes.

CHINA

— China warns Walmart over tariff pressure. China summoned Walmart executives to express concerns over reports that the U.S. retailer urged mainland suppliers to absorb higher American trade tariffs. According to a post from an account linked to state-run China Central Television, such demands could disrupt supply chains, distort market transactions, and harm both Chinese and American businesses, along with U.S. consumers. The move underscores Beijing’s push to prevent American firms from forcing Chinese suppliers to bear the cost of U.S. tariffs.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Severe Weather potential over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today... ...Storm system brings unsettled weather to the West... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk over parts of the Southern High Plains through the rest of the week... ...Warm temperatures in the Central and Eastern U.S.

KEY DATES IN MARCH

8-20: FOMC blackout where Fed officials cannot comment on monetary policy or the economy.
12: CPI
13: PPI-FD
13: Purim Fun Jewish holiday
14: Final day of current continuing resolution (CR)
15: Tax filing deadline for partnerships and S corporations
18: NCAA men’s basketball finals
18-19: FOMC meets (interest rates)
20: Spring equinox
20: NCAA women’s basketball finals
21: USDA Chicken & Eggs report | Cattle on Feed | Milk Production
25: USDA Cold Storage report | USDA Food Price Outlook
27: USDA Hogs & Pigs report
27: MLB Opening Day
28: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
29: Last day of Ramadan
31: USDA Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks reports | Ag Prices

LINKS