The Week Ahead: Nov. 3, 2024
— Early voting for the 2024 election has surged, with nearly 47% of the 2020 electorate already casting ballots, indicating a shift toward “Election Season,” according to the Washington Post (link). Key states like Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina have seen significant turnout, and early voting has exceeded 2020 levels in some states. Despite previous skepticism by former President Trump regarding early and mail voting, he and other Republicans are now encouraging it, boosting participation among their supporters. Early voting offers voters flexibility and helps campaigns secure votes before Election Day, although some research suggests it doesn’t necessarily increase overall voter numbers, just changes when they vote. Other research, however, says up to 10% of those waiting until Election Day to cast their votes do not do so because of sickness, schedules or other reasons. — FCC Commissioner criticizes Harris’ SNL appearance as attempt to skirt equal time rule. FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr accused Vice President Kamala Harris’ Saturday Night Live appearance on Saturday of being a deliberate move to bypass the Equal Time rule, which ensures equal broadcast opportunities for opposing candidates. Carr argued that NBC structured the appearance to avoid compliance with the regulation. — Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows. A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020. The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris. Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree. Link to more via the Des Moines Register. The Cook Political Report, which offers nonpartisan analysis, had rated Iowa as “solid Republican” on its rating scale, meaning the presidential race in the state was not considered competitive and was not likely to become closely contested. Trump adviser Jason Miller dismissed the poll results in a conversation with reporters Saturday night, pointing to another poll (see below) showing a solid lead for Trump in Iowa and past polls that have not aligned with results. He named an ABC-Washington Post poll in 2020 that found Joe Biden leading by 17 points in Wisconsin. Biden won the state by a narrow margin. “Every cycle, there’s one idiotic survey,” Miller said. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), a Trump ally, also denounced the poll Saturday night in a post on X. “President Trump will win Iowa if we vote and turnout our friends,” she wrote, saying that Republicans were leading in the state’s early voting. “Let’s prove the Des Moines Register wrong again!” The WSJ wrote (link) that “Democrats are hoping that the apparent shift toward Harris recorded by the Iowa Poll, particularly among older women and independents, indicated a broader trend, possibly in reaction to Trump’s recent rally at New York City’s Madison Square Garden, where some warm-up speakers made racist, sexist or otherwise demeaning comments.” Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said on X that the poll’s main sponsor, the Des Moines Register newspaper, and its pollster, Ann Selzer, had “lost any shred of credibility they had left.” He added that the poll should be considered “propaganda” and that Trump would win the state. Trump’s campaign, in a memo Sunday, dubbed it “an absurd outlier poll.” Of note: Trump won Iowa by 8 in 2016 and 9 in 2020. This November poll has him up 10… one or the other is seriously off. Why people respect the Iowa Poll: — Final New York Times/Siena College polls of the 2024 presidential election signal Harris ticked up in the final stretch. The race remains essentially even across the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency. Final NYT/Siena battleground poll results: Harris fared better than before among young, Black and Hispanic voters, while Trump gained among white voters without a degree. Harris led Black voters, 84% to 11%, up from 80-14 in the last wave of Times/Siena state polls. Similarly, she led among Hispanic voters, 56-35, up from 55-41. Nate Cohn of the NYT wrote (link): “If the race did shift toward Ms. Harris, it wouldn’t be hard to explain. The news over the last two weeks hasn’t been great for Mr. Trump, from his former chief of staff John Kelly saying he meets the definition of a fascist to a speaker at Mr. Trump’s event at Madison Square Garden calling Puerto Rico an ‘island of garbage.’ In an election when a sliver of voters are torn between two candidates they see as having major weaknesses, it can be a big deal when the news focuses them mostly on one side’s liabilities.” — Ten states are poised to vote on ballot measures aimed at expanding or securing abortion rights, marking a significant development since the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. Florida is a key battleground, where a six-week ban is currently in effect, and supporters face the challenge of meeting a 60% threshold for a constitutional amendment. Other notable states include Missouri, South Dakota, Arizona, and Nevada, each with unique political and legal landscapes affecting abortion access. Abortion-rights groups have been well-funded, outpacing their opponents in fundraising, while antiabortion groups, supported by figures like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, are pushing back. A Wall Street Journal article (link) says the outcome of these measures could reshape abortion access and influence voter turnout in the presidential election, impacting both red and blue states. — If you want perspective, recall these epic prediction fails, according to Bruce Mehlman: — Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), on the need to finish the fiscal year (FY) 2025 spending bills before the end of the current Congress (link): “My advice to whoever wins the presidency, and whoever wins the majority, is for the sake of the next Congress and the sake of the next President, let’s finish our work this year and give them a fresh start in January. There are people who disagree with me; they think we ought to kick that can down the road another 3-4 months and let the new administration deal with it. I think that’s irresponsible quite honestly.” — FDA extends public comment period on sodium reduction guidelines. FDA announced an extension of the public comment period for its Voluntary Sodium Reduction Goals (Edition 2) draft guidance (link), initially released on Aug. 15, 2024. The deadline, previously set for Nov. 14, 2024, is now extended to Jan. 13, 2025, following stakeholder requests for more time to prepare feedback. Interested parties can submit electronic comments via Regulations.gov or send written submissions to the FDA’s Dockets Management office. |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
A very busy and eventful week:
• Elections on Tuesday
• FOMC meeting Wednesday and Thursday
• USDA baseline Thursday
• USDA WASDE on Friday
— The upcoming U.S. election presents significant economic consequences, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump offering divergent paths.
Key differences include tax policies — Trump favors extended tax cuts and reduced corporate taxes funded by new tariffs, while Harris aims to maintain tax cuts only for lower earners, raise corporate taxes, and implement a billionaire’s minimum tax.
On trade, Trump proposes steep tariffs to encourage U.S. production, potentially impacting GDP and inflation. Harris supports Biden-era trade continuity.
Immigration and energy policies also sharply diverge, with Trump advocating extensive deportations and expanded fossil fuel production, while Harris focuses on modest immigration reforms and clean energy transitions.
Both candidates’ plans would increase the deficit, with Trump’s projections nearly doubling those under Harris.
Congress’ composition post-election will be crucial in shaping these policies.
Of note: The Wall Street Journal hasn’t endorsed a presidential candidate since 1928 — that was Herbert Hoover, for the record. Says the WSJ: “But as is our tradition, the editorial board tried to summarize the risks and potential benefits of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris presidency, and you can decide for yourself. Each candidate has serious flaws and poses risks on foreign policy and the economy, but they present starkly different directions for the country.” Check out the WSJ’s assessment of Trump and Harris.
If you have not done so already, vote. Remember, if you don’t vote, you can’t complain if the results do not go your way. And there will be plenty of complaints following election results.
| OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS |
Monday, Nov. 4
· GPS issues. Hudson Institute discussion on “Navigating GPS Vulnerabilities: Implications for U.S. Economic and National Security.”
· Climate and financing. New America virtual discussion on “Loss and Damage: Tackling Climate Inequities and Financing Resilience.”
· China and the Middle East. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “China in the Middle East.”
· 2024 elections. Common Cause briefing on “Election 2024: Threats to Our Elections and the Work to Overcome Them.”
· Iran and sanctions. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies Rethinking Iran Initiative discussion on “Global Repercussions of Sanctions,” focusing on “whether sanctions truly contribute to global stability or if they instead trigger economic collapse, humanitarian crises, and political unrest.”
Tuesday, Nov. 5
· Election Day.
· Election preview. Common Cause virtual election day briefing.
Wednesday, Nov. 6
· Election analysis. Several events with analysis of the elections, including the Common Good virtual discussion on “A Day After: Election Results in Real Time;” the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) Election Watch 2024 discussion on “What Happened, and What’s Next?”
· SEC enforcement. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Securities Enforcement Forum.
· Energy and carbon capture. United States Energy Association virtual discussion on “National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Carbon Storage Planning Inquiry Tool (CS PlanIT),” which provides users with “a one-stop-shop to easily explore, query, and evaluate thousands of data features and attributes from 14+ authoritative sources to support and accelerate carbon storage feasibility assessments and planning efforts.”
· Community banking issues. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation meeting of the Advisory Committee on Community Banking to discuss issues that are of interest to community banks.
· Lithium battery panel. Transportation Department, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration meeting of the Lithium Battery Air Safety Advisory Committee.
Thursday, Nov. 7
· U.S. election impact on EU. German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion on “The U.S. Election: Implications for the U.S., the EU, and Global Politics.”
· U.S. elections and the Middle East. Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum on “U.S. Election 2024: Views from the Middle East.”
· China climate financing. Center for Global Development virtual discussion on “China’s International Climate Finance: A Blind Spot in Global Discussion.”
· China and fentanyl. Georgetown University’s Initiative for U.S./China Dialogue on Global Issues virtual discussion on “China and Transnational Crime: Fentanyl and Beyond.”
· Pipelines and U.S. tribes. United States Energy Association virtual National Tribal Energy Roundtable discussion on “The Trail of the Chiefs Energy Corridor,” focusing on transmission lines, pipelines and the role that tribes play in shaping infrastructure.
Friday, Nov. 8
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman participates in a Conversation on Banking Topics at the University of Mississippi School of Business Banking and Finance Symposium.
· U.S. Senate outlook. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion on “Can We revive the Senate?”
· Energy issues. Hudson Institute North American Energy Pre-eminence Forum.
· Global China hub. Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub virtual discussion on the launch of a new report titled “Capture the (Red) Flag: An Inside Look Into China’s Hacking Contest Ecosystem.”
· Election briefing. Meridian International Center discussion on “After the Vote: America’s 2024 Election Debrief,” part of the “Meridian Election Briefing Series.
| ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
The Federal Reserve will hold its two-day policy meeting (Nov. 6-7) and make an interest-rate decision on Thursday. The market overwhelmingly expects a quarter-point rate cut.
High-profile companies on tap to announce their results include Palantir Technologies, Yum! Brands, Arm and Qualcomm.
Monday, Nov. 4
• Motor Vehicle Sales
• Factory Orders
Tuesday, Nov. 5
• International Trade
• ISM Services Index
Wednesday, Nov. 6
• PMI Composite Final
• FOMC meeting begins
Thursday, Nov. 7
• Jobless Claims
• Productivity and Costs
• Wholesale Trade
• Consumer Credit
• FOMC meeting conclusion
• Fed Chair press conference
• Fed Balance Sheet
• Money Supply
Friday, Nov. 8
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman participates in a Conversation on Banking Topics at the University of Mississippi School of Business Banking and Finance Symposium.
• Consumer Sentiment
| KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
On Friday, USDA releases its monthly supply and demand reports, and the Crop Production report. Meanwhile, the United Nations’ monthly food price index will also be released Friday.
For the energy sector, several energy companies will unveil earnings during the week, including Saudi Arabian giant Aramco on Tuesday. Ministers and industry executives will gather in Abu Dhabi for ADIPEC. African Energy Week is held in Cape Town.
Monday, Nov. 4
Ag reports and events:
• Export Inspections
• Dairy Products
• Crop Progress
Energy reports and events:
• ADIPEC, Abu Dhabi; runs through Thursday
• African Energy Week, Cape Town; runs through Friday
• Earnings: Saudi Basic, Kosmos Energy, Diamondback Energy, Constellation Energy
• Holiday: Japan, Russia, Venezuela, Panama
Tuesday, Nov. 5
Ag reports and events:
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
• Earnings: Archer-Daniels-Midland
Energy reports and events:
• API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
• Earnings: Aramco; Uniper; Vestas; Orsted; Marathon
• Holiday: Panama
Wednesday, Nov. 6
Ag reports and events:
• Indonesia Palm Oil Conference and 2025 Price Outlook (Nov. 6-8)
• Livestock and Meat International Trade Data
• Broiler Hatchery
Energy reports and events:
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
• Genscape weekly crude inventory report
• Earnings: Enel, Energy Transfer
Thursday, Nov. 7
Ag reports and events:
• Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Export Sales
• Fruit and Tree Nuts Yearbook
• US Agricultural Trade Data Update
Energy reports and events:
• EIA Natural Gas Report
• Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
• BNEF Energy Transition Forum, Seoul
• Brent December futures expire
• Earnings: DNO, UK National Grid, Engie, Duke Energy, Petrobras, TC Energy
Friday, Nov. 8
Ag reports and events:
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report
• FAO food price index
• China’s agriculture ministry (CASDE) monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• AMIS Market Monitor
• FranceAgriMer’s weekly crop condition report
• Cotton: World Markets and Trade
• Grains: World Markets and Trade
• Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
• World Agricultural Production
• WASDE
• Crop Production
• Cotton Ginnings
• Peanut Prices
Energy reports and events:
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
• Earnings: Mol
• Holiday: Azerbaijan
| KEY LINKS |
WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | New farm bill primer | | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum |