Dollar Extends Dominance Versus Other Currencies

USDA’s AMS wants to mandate cattle contract reporting; NAMI claims AMS lacks legal authority

The dollar extended its dominance against other currencies. The British pound, the euro and the Swiss franc all fell against the greenback — the first two to multiyear lows — as investors seek out a safe haven. Risky assets, including stocks, continue to slide after recent moves by central banks in several countries to raise interest rates to combat inflation.

The British pound and U.K. sovereign bonds are selling off after the government said it will borrow heavily to fund sweeping tax cuts and spur growth.

FedEx, which recently rattled markets with a sales warning, reported a 20% drop in quarterly profit and said it plans to raise shipping rates and cut costs. On the positive side, Costco’s revenue rose 15% in the fourth quarter, beating analysts’ expectations.

The number of newly listed homes in the U.S. in the four weeks ended Sept. 18 fell 20% year-over-year, an indication that sellers who don’t need to sell are staying on the sidelines.

Occupied parts of Ukraine are voting in “sham” referendums today on joining Russia. The referendums, which are illegal under international law, have been widely condemned by the West as illegitimate. Such a move could provide Moscow with a pretext to escalate its faltering invasion, which has seen Ukraine regain thousands of square miles of territory this month.

Long lines of traffic were reported at several of Russia’s major land borders, as Russian citizens attempt to flee the newly announced “partial mobilization.”

USDA to mandate cattle contract reporting, while NAMI claims AMS lacks legal authority. Details in Livestock section.

Canadians are bracing for what could be the strongest storm to ever hit their country’s coast. Hurricane Fiona, which already battered the Caribbean, is now forecast to brush by Bermuda today before slamming into eastern Canada on Saturday morning. Residents in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island are being warned to prepare for Fiona’s impact.

Hong Kong is ending its hotel-quarantine policy for travelers, as pressure builds on the city to ease Covid-19 restrictions to shore up its economy and defend its longtime position as a global business capital. Other countries are making some changes to their policy. Details in Health section.

Pandemic fraud: More than $45 billion in pandemic unemployment benefits may have been fraudulently paid to criminals between March 2020 and April 2022, the U.S. Department of Labor said in a memo on Thursday. This is the latest report to identify widespread schemes to steal money from a variety of federal relief programs after Congress enacted an expansion of the program to help Americans during the Covid-19 pandemic. It’s also a big jump from the $16 billion figure estimated in June 2021.

Boeing agreed to pay $200 million to settle an SEC investigation related to 737 MAX crashes.

If you are at the New York Yankees game when Aaron Judge breaks the home run record, it could net you a lot of money if you catch the ball. Details in last item.

Election Day 2022 is 46 days away. Election Day 2024 is 774 days away.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 260 points lower and is now down around 360 points, amid three-month lows. The Fed’s warning that it could jack rates up to 4.6%, from the current 3% to 3.25%, prompted fears that policy makers might be doing too much, too late. Bond yields have also popped, triggering fears that a recession is on the way in 2023.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow fell 107.10 points, 0.35%, at 30,076.68. The Nasdaq declined 153.39 points, 1.37%, at 11,066.81. The S&P 500 was down 31.94 points, 0.84%, at 3,757.99.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: December corn rose 2 3/4 cents to $6.88 1/4.
• Soy complex: November soybeans fell 4 1/4 cents to $14.57. December soymeal fell $9.90 to $428.90 after earlier hitting a contract high at $443.80. December soyoil rose 146 points to 66.46 cents.
• Wheat: December SRW wheat rose 7 cents to $9.10 3/4, the contract’s highest close since June 29. December HRW wheat gained 12 1/2 cents to $9.79 1/2. December spring wheat rose 13 1/2 cents to $9.77 3/4.
• Cotton: December cotton fell 38 points to 96.54 cents.
• Cattle: October live cattle fell $1.025 to $144.85, the contract’s lowest closing price since Sept. 14, while October feeder cattle tumbled $1.25 to $177.975.
• Hogs: October lean hogs fell 30 cents to $94.125, the contract’s lowest closing price since Sept. 12.
  

Ag markets today: Outside markets weighed heavily on the grain and soy complex overnight as the U.S. dollar strengthened to a fresh 20-year high and front-month crude oil dropped to near $80.00. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading mostly 9 cents lower, soybeans were 10 to 12 cents lower, SRW wheat was 14 to 16 cents lower, HRW wheat was 10 to 12 cents lower and HRS wheat was mostly a dime lower. Front-month crude oil futures were around $2.75 lower, and the U.S. dollar index was more than 900 points higher.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• USDA Food Price Outlook, 9 a.m. ET.
• S&P Global’s U.S. manufacturing and services indexes are set to go out at 9:45 a.m. ET. Economists are expecting manufacturing to have declined in September, compared to the end of August, while services are forecasted to have risen.
• Baker Hughes rig count at 1 p.m. ET.
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give opening remarks at 2 p.m. ET at a Fed Listens event. We’ll also hear from Governor Michelle Bowman and Vice Chair Lael Brainard as they moderate panels.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report, 3:30 p.m. ET.

Business is slowing for FedEx, a company considered to be a bellwether for the economy. The average number of packages handled daily in the quarter ended Aug. 31 fell 11% from the prior year, the third straight quarter of declines.

Bread prices have risen sharply across Europe over the past year, according to new data, with the increase particularly steep since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 Hungary has been the worst hit — it saw a huge 65.5% rise over the year, while France has seen the slowest growth.

Lower milk production on U.S. dairy farms and labor shortages at processing plants have weighed on butter output for months, sending prices up 24.6% over the past 12 months — outpacing most foods. The WSJ reports (link) that the forces at work in butter highlight the challenge of curtailing inflation. Economic pressures fueling high prices for livestock feed, labor shortages and other factors could persist, keeping prices for the kitchen staple elevated longer term.

U.K. unveils biggest tax cuts since 1970s, sending pound lower. Kwasi Kwarteng, Britain’s finance minister, unveiled a “mini-budget” designed to boost growth through tax cuts and increased government spending. Stamp duty, a tax on buying property, will be cut; a planned increase of corporation tax will be cancelled; and low-tax investment zones will be set up across the country. Kwarteng also announced an energy plan worth £60bn ($67 billion) to cap bills for households. The package of subsidies and tax cuts — which will be funded by borrowing — will cost more than 150 billion pounds, equivalent to $169 billion, over the next couple of years, analysts say.

Impacts: a slide in the pound and a jump in government bond yields. The pound, which had already fallen by nearly a fifth this year against the dollar, slid another 1.5% Friday to $1.110, hitting a fresh 37-year low. U.K. borrowing costs rose quickly, with yields on both short-term and longer-term government bonds shooting up by more than a third of a percentage point, a massive jump in bond-market terms. The 10-year U.K. government bond yielded 3.8%, shooting higher than the U.S. equivalent for the first time in several years.

It’s not all good politics. Polls suggest that Britons favor higher taxes and more government spending on areas like health care and education. And ending caps on banker pay is deeply unpopular. PM Liz Truss and Kwarteng are hoping to get traction on an economic recovery ahead of national elections in 2024.

Eurozone manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes dropped in September and are suggesting both sectors are contracting. S&P Global said the composite purchasing managers index for the eurozone fell to a 20-month low of 48.2, raising the risk of recession in one of the world’s industrial powerhouses. S

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is higher and pushed to another 20-year high in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is rising and presently fetching 3.771% and at an 11-year high. The 2-year Treasury note yield is 4.205%. Crude oil prices are seeing losses, with U.S. crude around $80.60 per barrel (down nearly 3.5% and closing in on their lowest since January and heading for their fourth straight losing week) and Brent at $87.70 (down just over 3%). Big losses were seen in gold and silver futures, with gold at $1,647 per troy ounce and silver under $19.04 per troy ounce.

• European governments have spent over €500 billion to cushion the impact of the energy crisis since prices began rising in September 2021, according to an updated study (link) by the Bruegel think tank. The UK leads the ranking with a €150 billion program to cap bills recently proposed by PM Liz Truss. Experts warn subsidized prices could derail efforts to reduce consumer demand.

• Currency devaluation helps spur Argentine soy exports. Argentina devalued its peso earlier this month to spur soy exports, and it’s helped, according to Bloomberg. China, the world’s top buyer of the crop, booked as much as 3 million tons in the past two weeks, almost as much as the roughly 3.75 million tons it imported from Argentina all of last year, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. But that risks eroding demand for the U.S. harvest just as American farmers are starting to gather their crop.

• Fertilizer watch: U.S. nitrogen-fertilizer prices rose last week, fueled by a rash of ammonia-plant outages in Europe due to surging natural gas costs, Bloomberg Intelligence analysis shows.

• IGC raises global wheat crop forecast, cuts corn production. The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2022-23 global wheat production by 4 MMT to 792 MMT amid an upward revision for the Russian crop. IGC now expects the Russian wheat crop to total 93.4 MMT, up from its prior forecast of 87.6 MMT, but still well below others, including SovEcon. Global wheat production is now forecast to top year-ago by 10 MMT (1.3%).

IGC cut its 2022-23 global corn crop forecast by 11 MMT to 1.168 billion MT, driven mostly by a 10.5-MMT cut to the U.S. production outlook.

• Ag trade: The Philippines purchased 45,000 MT of Australian feed wheat.

• Hurricane Fiona pounded Bermuda with heavy rains and winds on its way toward Canada. In Puerto Rico, power outages triggered fears about the availability of fuel and basic goods as the US approved additional help for the island.

• NWS weather: First taste of autumn is being ushered into the eastern U.S. today and into the weekend as blustery northwest winds from the outer edge of Fiona brushes Maine on Saturday... ...Monsoonal moisture lingers across parts of the Desert Southwest with some additional flooding potential.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Heavy pressure on grain, soy markets overnight
• Russian wheat export tax drops again
• China continues soybean auctions
• Big increase in Indian palm oil imports
• Beef, pork stocks imply strong demand
• Placements key in Cattle on Feed Report
• Traders take bearish stance on cattle
• Cash hog index firms

— Summary: Polling stations opened in four Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine, with residents given until Tuesday to vote on whether they want to officially join Russia. Both the Ukrainian government and Western leaders have declared that the referendums are illegitimate and an excuse for annexation — they plan to ignore the results. Ukrainian authorities claim the Russians’ own polling suggests that no more than 10% of the population will turn out. Ukraine is urging its citizens not to take part, and for adult men to leave the regions in question — to avoid being mobilized against their own country.

• Secret paragraph in Putin’s Wednesday decree? Independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta reports there is a “secret seventh paragraph” in Putin’s Wednesday decree that permits calling up one million Russians for Putin’s Ukraine invasion, according to a government source. Meanwhile in Moscow, there were reports of young professionals with no military experience being called up,

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) suggested that public opinion on the war in Ukraine is shifting in Russia because President Vladimir Putin is drafting soldiers from more “sophisticated” areas of the country, not only the poor southern reaches. Pelosi said she heard this sentiment from foreign leaders during a recent trip to Europe.

  Protests continue in Russia. “When we fought in 1941 to 1945 — that was a war,” one man yelled in a video of an angry crowd widely shared on social media. “And now it’s not war, it’s politics.”

  To temper discontent, Putin said Wednesday that those called up would be paid on par with contract soldiers. Russian news reports said this meant that draftees could make more than $3,000 per month, five times the average Russian salary.

• Medvedev: Strategic nuclear weapons can be used to defend annexed Ukrainian territory. “The Western establishment and all citizens of NATO countries in general need to understand that Russia has chosen its own path,” Medvedev said. Medvedev, who also serves as deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that referendums planned by Russian-installed and separatist authorities in large swathes of Ukrainian territory will take place, and “there is no going back. Therefore, various retired idiots with generals’ stripes do not need to scare us with talk about a NATO strike on Crimea,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram. “Hypersonic [missiles] are guaranteed to be able to reach targets in Europe and the United States much faster.”
• The U.K.'s forecast for Putin’s 300,000-man recruiting surge: “Russia is likely to struggle with the logistical and administrative challenges of even mustering the 300,000 personnel,” many of which “are unlikely to be combat effective for months,” the British military tweeted Thursday in its latest Ukraine update. From London’s point of view, “Putin is accepting considerable political risk in the hope of generating much needed combat power,” the military said. “The move is effectively an admission that Russia has exhausted its supply of willing volunteers to fight in Ukraine,” they added, and predicted, “Even this limited mobilization is likely to be highly unpopular with parts of the Russian population.”
• European Union has agreed to pursue new sanctions against Moscow in response to its escalation of the war in Ukraine, including an oil price cap on Russian crude, curbs on high-tech exports to Russia, and more individual sanctions on diplomats and individuals in Moscow, Reuters reports (link). Three EU diplomats said the new sanctions would “center” around the oil price cap plan that G7 ministers agreed to pursue earlier this year. The new EU measures were drafted at an ad hoc meeting of EU leaders, Reuters notes. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters the new measures would include “additional export controls on civilian technology.” “We also fully expect more individual listings,” another individual said of the sanctions.
• Google sees Russia coordinating with hackers in cyberattacks tied to Ukraine war. A growing body of evidence suggests that pro-Russian hackers and online activists are working with the country’s military intelligence agency, according to researchers at Google. Link for details via the WSJ.

— NGFA asks FMCSA to keep emergency trucking declaration for feed and livestock. In comments submitted on Sept. 21 (link), the NGFA urged the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) to extend the emergency declaration for livestock and feed to help provide necessary additional trucking capacity for the agricultural supply chain. Agricultural shippers have been experiencing significant rail service challenges and emergency truck freight has been indispensable to help meet demand, NGFA noted in response to FMCSA’s request for input on the extent to which motor carriers currently rely on the emergency declaration. “Even though truck transportation capacity is tight, agricultural shippers have been forced to find extra truck freight to help fill the void where rail is unavailable or unreliable,” the comments state. “While the trucking industry is doing what it can to help with the rail service challenges, there is a limited amount of trucking capacity.” Noting that the Surface Transportation Board called an urgent hearing in April to address rail service challenges, NGFA emphasized that rail carriers do not have enough rail workers to service freight demand. There has been a 20% decrease in train and engine employees compared to five years ago, the comments noted. “The emergency declaration for livestock and feed is still needed to provide flexibility during the ongoing supply chain challenges,” NGFA concluded.

— USDA to hold listening sessions on farm labor pilot program. USDA will hold several public listening sessions on a pilot program aimed at stabilizing the farm labor via a pilot program to address immigration issues. USDA said the pilot program seeks to address issues in the agricultural supply chain by looking at “current labor shortages in agriculture, reducing irregular migration through increased use of legal pathways, and improving labor protections for farmworkers.” Two sessions will take place Sept. 28 for employer organizations and labor unions with a third session for farmworker advocacy organizations on Sept. 29. USDA is also seeking public comment on the effort, with comments due Oct. 24. Link to Federal Register notice.

— Ag trade nominee pushed for fast Senate vote next week. Key bipartisan senators on the Senate Ag Committee want to confirm nominees for trade, food safety, and farm credit by unanimous consent next week. “I hope next week that we can get 100% of the Senate” to back the nominees, Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) said at a panel hearing Thursday, citing broad bipartisan support. Democratic and Republican senators praised Alexis Taylor, the president’s pick for USDA’s undersecretary of agriculture for trade and foreign agricultural affairs. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) also said “we ought to move” her nomination next week by unanimous consent. The other two nominees are Jose Emilio Esteban, for USDA’s undersecretary for food safety, and Vincent Garfield Logan, for the Farm Credit Administration board, a three-person panel that oversees the policies of a network of rural lenders. Senators noted that the USDA trade position has been vacant for over 20 months. A Senate panel earlier this month advanced Doug McKalip for the post. “I do question if they will be receiving the support they need from the White House,” Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), the panel’s ranking member, said about the length of time it has taken to nominate and confirm Taylor and McKalip.

— Senate confirms Prabhakar to lead White House science office. Arati Prabhakar will be the first woman, immigrant, and person of color confirmed to lead the White House’s science office following Senate approval on Thursday. The Senate, in a 56-40 vote, confirmed Prabhakar, an engineer and former director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, as the next director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. She will also serve as President Joe Biden’s science adviser, a role he elevated as a Cabinet-level position for the first time.

— Senate confirms FMCSA chief. Robin Meredith Cohn Hutcheson won Senate confirmation Thursday to lead of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration as the industry confronts driver retention and supply chain challenges, an increase in crashes, and a lack of parking.

— China and Taiwan. China spokesperson Ma Xiaoguang talked at length about how Taiwan will benefit politically, economically, culturally, and internationally after reunification. Similar promises were made in the Taiwan policy white paper, released in August. Ma shunned a question on the timeline for achieving reunification, and repeated Beijing’s confidence in peaceful reunification and its resolve to counter all “provocations” — both from within Taiwan and abroad.

— U.S. regulators have started inspecting China-based audits, kicking off a monthslong process that will determine whether companies from Alibaba to Yum China can remain listed on American stock exchanges.

— The severe drought impacting south and central China lingers. Since July 1, the National Meteorological Center has issued drought warnings for more than 40 days. Tuesday marked its 34th consecutive day of drought warnings. The drought spans at least 13 provinces and regions, including key grain-producing provinces Anhui, Henan, Jiangxi, and Hunan. But the grain harvest is going well so far, a rural expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences told the Global Times. It says: With roughly 20% of the fall harvest completed in the Yangtze River region, the drought’s impact appears “limited.” The dry conditions actually benefit the harvest process. In focus: Will the drought break in time for the fall and winter planting season? That’s when key crops like rapeseed and winter wheat are planted. Says China-watcher Trivium China: “Beijing has directed a massive relief package to farmers in the region — but if the drought doesn’t break in the next month or two, there’s no amount of cash that can bail out next spring’s harvest.

— China unleashes its strategic pork reserves. With the National Day holiday approaching on October 1, the National Development and Reform Commission wants to help families afford to feast on their favorite meat. On Friday it released thousands of tonnes of frozen pork from the state’s reserves, for the third time this month. This should help restrain prices, which were 22% higher in August than a year ago. The commission has also promised to crack down on price-gouging and collusion among food suppliers.

— China continues soybean auctions. China will auction another 500,000 MT of imported soybeans from state-owned reserves on Sept. 30. China has been selling state-owned soybean stockpiles onto the domestic market on a regular basis since March.

— GOP warns banks on climate activism. Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), the top Republican on the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, warned the four largest U.S. banks to stop “embracing a liberal ESG agenda that harms America,” when they take stances on non-banking social and political issues. “I can’t help but observe that when banks do weigh-in on highly charged social and political issues, they seem to always come down on the liberal side,” the Pennsylvania Republican said at a hearing this morning. Toomey earlier this week sent letters to more than a dozen credit firms earlier this week requesting information on their ratings system used to assign ESG ratings to companies.

Background: Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria comprise a set of standards “socially responsible investors” use to evaluate a company based on three main criteria: environmental, social, and corporate governance.

Always quotable Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told executives: “You will never win the uber-woke sweepstakes.”

The SEC proposed two rule changes earlier this year aimed at preventing misleading claims and enhancing disclosures made by ESG funds.

— Biofuel proponents urge EPA to maximize RFS levels. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is the most successful clean energy tool available to the government, which should make full use of it when setting the biofuel mandate for 2023 and future years, biofuel trade groups said on Thursday. “What we’re really looking to take place with EPA is that they maximize the full potential of the RFS,” said Emily Skor, chief executive of Growth Energy. EPA is due to announce its “set” for the RFS by Nov. 16. Emily Skor, chief executive of Growth Energy, and Geoff Cooper, chief executive of the Renewable Fuels Association, told reporters they expect the EPA “set” to expand biofuel volumes from this year’s 15.25 billion gallons of corn ethanol and 5.63 billion gallons of advanced biofuels and to list the biofuel targets for the next two or three years. “We are producing more and more with less and less,” said Jon Doggett, head of the National Corn Growers Association, so each bushel of corn had a smaller carbon footprint than in the past.

— World Bank climate controversy. After refusing to say whether he believed humans’ greenhouse gas emissions are fueling climate change, World Bank President David Malpass has now backtracked under mounting global pressure, claiming that he is “not a denier.” His original hedging had ignited calls for his resignation and cast a harsh spotlight on the World Bank’s climate track record. Malpass was appointed under the Trump administration and has previously been criticized by climate groups.

— The road to hell: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the prospect of banks refusing to invest in oil and gas projects would be the “road to hell” for America. His remarks came during a House hearing, after Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) instructed the bank executives to “please answer with a simple yes or no: does your bank have a policy against funding new oil and gas products?” Dimon responded: “Absolutely not, and that would be the road to hell for America.” He added that, in his view, the U.S. needs to invest more, not less, in fossil fuel projects: “We aren’t getting this one right. The world needs 100 million barrels, effectively, of oil and gas every day. And we need it for 10 years,” Dimon said. “To do that, we need proper investing in the oil and gas complex.”

— USDA to mandate cattle contract reporting, while NAMI claims AMS lacks legal authority. USDA in a note to the ag industry said it plans to require beef processors to start reporting details of active cattle contracts. The information is to be used in a cattle contracts library that Congress authorized as a pilot program. The Agricultural Marketing Service says (link) the reporting requirement is necessary to “populate the pilot with information from active contracts.” But the North American Meat Institute (NAMI) claims AMS lacks the legal authority to mandate contract reporting. The pilot program is funded through September 2023.

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 614,155,209 with 6,534,078 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 95,969,918 with 1,055,922 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 612,781,120 doses administered, 267,325,642 have been fully vaccinated, or 81.18% of the U.S. population.

— Covid shifts: Hong Kong will scrap hotel quarantine from Monday. But arrivals will be banned from bars and restaurants for the first three days of their trip. Canada plans to eliminate its vaccine requirement for people entering the country at the end of the month, the AP reported. Japan will abolish several Covid border controls from Oct. 11, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, in a move that looks set to revive the tourism industry.

— Italians are heading to the polls on Sunday to elect their next parliament. According to the latest polls, a three-party hard-right coalition could come on top. This would make Giorgia Meloni, the leader of Brothers of Italy, Italy’s first female prime minister – and also the first one with post-Fascist roots. Link for more info.

— Nevada U.S. Senate race update: Republican Adam Laxalt leads Democratic incumbent Cortez Masto, 47% to 43%, according to the Republican Trafalgar Group. But the Dem-aligned Data for Progress has the race a little closer, with Laxalt up, 47% to 46%.

— Election-watchers continue to move some races towards Democrats. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted four race ratings this week. In Arizona, Senate editor Jessica Taylor moved the Senate race to Lean D. She writes, “Kelly’s lead comes from the fact he’s getting 11% of Republican voters — the same amount exit polling from 2020 showed Kelly winning — and has an 8-point lead among independent voters, slightly down from the 10 points he got in 2020. House editor David Wasserman shifted ratings in AZ-01, AZ-02, and TX-28 toward Democrats.

— Kaptur now favored in Ohio race. Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed its outlook for the House race in Ohio between incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur and Republican J.R. Majewski from toss-up to “leans Democratic.” Link for details.

— Marijuana is on the ballot. Arkansans will join voters in Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota in November to decide whether to make marijuana legal after the state Supreme Court said the initiative can go forward. Nineteen states already legalized recreational weed.

— Congress’ schedule: The House will next meet on Wednesday at noon ET. The Senate meets for a pro forma session Friday at 11 a.m., and no votes are expected. The chamber is scheduled to next meet Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET.

— Bill introduced to double MAP/FMD funding. Sens. Angus King (I-Maine), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) have introduced legislation to double USDA’s Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) Program funding. The Cultivating Revitalization by Expanding American Agricultural Trade and Exports (CREAATE) Act of 2022 would increase MAP mandatory funding from $200 million annually to $400 million and would increase FMD mandatory funding from $34.5 million annually to $69 million. Link for details.

— Big decline in cotton AWP. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton fell to 88.88 cents per pound, effective today (Sept. 23), down from 95.17 cents per pound the prior week and the lowest since the week of Aug. 12 when it was just over 89 cents. The AWP still remains well above the national average loan rate of 52 cents per pound and the AWP would have to fall below that mark to trigger any marketing loan benefits. Meanwhile, USDA said that Special Import Quota #23 will be established Sept. 29 for 55,633 bales of upland cotton, applying to supplies purchased no later than Dec. 27 and entered into the U.S. no later than March 27.

— U.S. lost $45.6 billion to Covid unemployment fraud. A federal watchdog identified criminals filing for unemployment benefits in several states or using the Social Security numbers of dead or imprisoned people. (And yes, that is billion….)

— Abortion ruling impact in Indiana. Two of Indiana’s biggest employers said last month that they’d think twice about expanding facilities in the state after the legislature passed a near-total ban on abortion. A new Forbes-Zogby poll shows that, nationwide, the companies are hardly unique.

— As protests escalated, Iranian authorities reduced internet availability and cut access to WhatsApp and other platforms. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned that “acts of chaos are unacceptable.” Demonstrations have gripped the country after Mahsa Amini, a 22-year old woman, died last Friday while in police custody for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab law. Amini’s father has accused the government of a cover-up.

— Boeing settles securities fraud charges for $200 million. The fine resolves an investigation by the SEC over whether the aircraft maker had misled investors about problems with the 737 Max. Dennis Muilenburg, Boeing’s former CEO, will pay a $1 million fine.

— NASA released an image of Neptune on Wednesday that it said is the clearest view of the planet’s rings in 30 years, showing a luminescent planet with bright, dusty rings around it. The deep-space James Webb Space Telescope also captured seven of Neptune’s 14 known moons. Link for details.

— Judging the coming homers of Aaron Judge. Morning Brew noted that “given Judge’s lack of performance-enhancing drug controversy and his popularity among baseball fans, experts are estimating his 61st home run ball could fetch anywhere from $250,000 to more than $2 million at auction. His 62nd (and record-breaking) shot has an estimated value of between $500,000 and $5+ million.” For that reason, Yankees ticket prices have ballooned to $960 on StubHub, with some eclipsing $4,000 on the secondary market. With all that money on the line, Morning Brew notes that the MLB isn’t taking any chances on a forgery. “For the rest of the season, every ball pitched to Judge will include a covert marking that can only be seen with certain technology, although the league isn’t being much more specific than that to ensure the legitimacy of its authentication process.”

Meanwhile, Apple will sponsor the Super Bowl halftime show. The iPhone maker will replace Pepsi as the event’s backer, the NFL. announced yesterday. But Apple and the league are still negotiating over a much bigger deal: the streaming rights to Sunday Ticket games, for which the NFL. is seeking $2.5 billion.

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list |