Democratic National Convention Begins Monday in Chicago

Focus on Friday’s speech by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole confab

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August 18, 2024 06:53 PM

The Week Ahead: Aug. 18, 2024

— Latest polls (registered voters):

• WaPo/ABC/Ipsos: Kamala Harris 49%, Donald Trump 45% — Harris 47%, Trump 44%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 5%. In early July, Trump stood at 43%, Biden at 42% and Kennedy at 9%.
Of note: This survey confirms Trump’s firm advantage on the economy issue, with the former president holding 9-point advantages when respondents were asked who they trust more to handle the economy and inflation, which remain the most important issues to Americans.

• CBS News: Harris 51%, Trump 48% — Harris 49%, Trump 47%, Kennedy 2%

— Democrats announced the themes that will guide programming through the four nights of the convention: “For the People, For Our Future.” Link for details and see below for convention coverage. An estimated 50,000 people are expected to visit the convention, the DNC estimated.

— Donald Trump’s agenda this week: He heads Monday to York, Pennsylvania, where he’s expected to speak more on the economy. Then, he’s off to Howell, Michigan, on Tuesday to focus on crime. On Wednesday, his focus is on national security at an event in Asheboro, North Carolina, and border security on Friday in Glendale, Arizona — Trump is expected to engage with the border patrol union and members of the sheriff’s department and participate in a briefing accompanied by officials such as the county sheriff and Brandon Judd, who is the immediate past president of the National Border Patrol Council. Trump reportedly will travel to the U.S./Mexico border, part of a push by his campaign to ratchet up political pressure and steal attention from Kamala Harris as Democrats celebrate her presidential nomination at their national convention in Chicago. Trump will travel to Montezuma Pass, Arizona on Thursday, the same day Harris is slated to give her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention.

— Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) on the “communist” criticisms of Harris’ proposal, on Fox News Sunday: “I know Kamala Harris believes in the free market. What she put out in her proposals includes tax incentives for us to increase the production of housing and, yes, reductions in the prices that seniors pay for prescription drugs. I don’t think there’s anything communist about wanting to make housing more affordable and prescription drugs more affordable.”

Asked by NBC whether Harris’s policies were smart, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer replied: “People are reading too much into what has been put out there.”

In an editorial, the Washington Post (link) — which has for decades endorsed Democrats for the presidency — said that Harris had “instead of delivering a substantial plan, squandered the moment on populist gimmicks.”

— Stabenow remarks. On Thursday Politico holds a discussion with Senate Ag Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) at the sidelines of the Democratic National Convention.

— Economic focus: This week, attention will focus on the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium from Aug. 22 to 24, a key event where economists, financial market participants, and U.S. gov’t representatives discuss long-term policy issues. Traders will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for hints on monetary policy easing. Additionally, updates on new home sales and the Fed’s July meeting minutes are expected. The second quarter earnings season will wind down, but major companies like Target, TJX, Palo Alto Networks, and Baidu will report their results.

— McConnell supports Congress’ Authority on proxy voting in court brief, despite personal opposition. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) filed a brief in federal court, authored by former Attorney General William Barr, asserting that Congress has the constitutional authority to allow proxy voting. This position, despite McConnell’s personal opposition to proxy voting, emphasizes the autonomy of the House and Senate in determining their procedural rules. This stance contrasts with the majority of House Republicans, who have historically opposed proxy voting, a practice initiated by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. The issue is currently under review by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals after a federal district court in Texas ruled that proxy voting violated the Constitution, which requires a majority of members to be physically present to conduct business. McConnell argues that such a ruling could hinder Congress’ flexibility to operate, especially during national emergencies, and could impact common practices like voice votes and unanimous consent in the Senate.

— Clean-fuel startups aimed at reducing emissions in aviation, shipping, and trucking are struggling to succeed, highlighting the difficulty of transitioning these industries away from oil and gas, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). As these startups falter, emissions are likely to continue rising, jeopardizing U.S. and global climate goals. The initial enthusiasm for these ventures has not met expectations, as noted by Plug Power CEO Andy Marsh.

— A top commander in Hezbollah’s al-Hajj Radwan Force, Hussein Ibrahim Kassab, was killed in southern Lebanon on Saturday. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) released footage of a drone strike that reportedly targeted Kassab while he was riding a motorcycle in the city of Tyre. His death is the 412th killing of a Hezbollah operative since Oct. 7, according to the IDF. In response, Hezbollah launched 55 rockets at northern Israel after an Israeli airstrike near Nabatieth killed 10 people.

— Israel and Hamas are blaming each other for stalling a potential cease-fire and hostage exchange as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv to push for an agreement. Despite recent negotiations bringing both sides closer to a pause in fighting, objections from both parties have increased the risk of a stalemate. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized that while there are areas where Israel can be flexible, there are non-negotiable points. Hamas, in turn, accused Israel of imposing new demands that could prevent a deal. Negotiations are set to continue in Cairo, though a date has not been finalized.

— Ukrainian forces have recently destroyed two key bridges in Russia’s Kursk region. The first bridge, spanning the Seim River near the town of Glushkovo, was destroyed, and a second bridge nearby was struck less than two days later. These actions are part of Ukraine’s cross-border incursion aimed at disrupting Russian supply routes and possibly signaling an intention to establish a foothold in the region.

Of note: Belarus has deployed about a third of its armed forces to its border, citing Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia.

WASHINGTON FOCUS

Friday in Raleigh, North Carolina, Vice President Kamala Harris announced a comprehensive economic agenda she said is aimed at reducing everyday costs for Americans in what she calls an “opportunity economy.” She also hit back at Donald Trump’s plans to impose large tariffs on all imported goods, dubbing it a “Trump tax.”

Trump responded to Harris’ tax attack: “A tariff is a tax on a foreign country, that’s the way it is, whether you like it or not. … It’s a tax on a country that’s ripping us off and stealing our jobs. And it’s a tax that doesn’t affect our country.”

In a speech last week, Trump doubled down on his commitment to new tariffs, pledging to implement “10% to 20% tariffs on countries that have been ripping us off for years.” Elsewhere, Trump has indicated he would support tariffs of at least 60% on Chinese imports to reduce trade with the world’s second-largest economy.

Currently, the average effective tariff — as measured as duties as a share of imports — is around 1% on imports from countries excluding China and 11% on Chinese imports, according to Wolfe Research, a stock-market research firm.

The economic implications of universal tariffs, focusing on how they affect domestic businesses, consumers, and overall economic growth. Here’s a breakdown, according to the Wall Street Journal (link):

· Impact on domestic businesses and consumers: Tariffs are imposed on domestic businesses that import products, leading these businesses to raise prices to cover the increased costs. This cost is passed on to consumers, resulting in higher prices for goods.
· Short-term effects on the economy: Universal tariffs are likely to increase consumer prices and slow down economic growth by effectively taxing households and reducing their spending power. This could create a drag on the economy.
· Industry-specific impacts: While some industries, like steel manufacturing, may benefit from tariffs, others, such as automakers that rely on imported steel, could suffer. Additionally, if other countries retaliate with their own tariffs, exporting businesses in the U.S. could be adversely affected, including the U.S. ag sector.
· Inflation and economic growth: Analysts estimate that a 10% universal tariff could increase inflation by 0.6 to 0.9 percentage points. When combined with restrictive immigration policies, these tariffs could reduce economic growth by 1 to 2 percentage points, potentially leading to a recession.
· Federal Reserve response: While tariffs would likely cause an initial spike in consumer prices, most economists believe this would not lead to persistent inflation. As a result, the Federal Reserve might choose to overlook the temporary inflationary impact, although some analysts suggest it could influence the Fed’s decisions on interest-rate cuts.

— Harris’ controversial and populist proposals include a federal ban on price gouging for groceries, $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, and tax incentives for builders of starter homes.

Harris also plans to expand the child tax credit to up to $6,000 for children in their first year and broaden the earned income tax credit for lower-income workers without children. (This followed a suggestion earlier this month from Sen. JD Vance (Ohio), the GOP vice-presidential nominee, that the credit be raised from $2,000 per child to $5,000.)

Additionally, she aims to lower health insurance premiums through the Affordable Care Act and build 3 million new housing units.

Harris emphasized her commitment to fighting high costs in food, housing, and healthcare, and outlined her plans for the first 100 days in office if elected president.

She also addressed the need for a stable business environment with clear regulations and criticized former President Donald Trump’s economic policies.

— The cost of Vice President Harris’ new proposals is uncertain, but the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates (link) that the plan would increase deficits by $1.7 trillion over the next decade. This figure could rise to $2 trillion if Harris’s housing policies, initially intended to last four years, were made permanent.

— Harris’ price-gouging plan would include authorizing the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to impose large fines on grocery stores that impose “excessive” price hikes on customers, her campaign said. This approach is intended to deter companies from engaging in excessive price hikes that are not justified by increases in production costs. The FTC’s role will include investigating corporate practices and imposing financial penalties on violators, similar to how state attorneys general enforce state-level bans.

Details to come, but… While the specifics of how price gouging is defined and regulated are not fully detailed, the proposal draws inspiration from existing state-level bans, which typically involve prohibiting significant price increases during emergencies or sudden supply-demand imbalances. However, Harris’ proposal may not require an emergency condition to trigger enforcement, reflecting a broader application to address ongoing price increases in the grocery sector.

Determining whether a price increase is excessive, particularly in the context of grocery price gouging, is a complex task for the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The process involves several steps and considerations:

• Data collection and monitoring: The FTC collects and reviews data on prices to identify unusual changes. This involves comparing current prices to historical data to spot anomalies that might indicate excessive increases not justified by market conditions.
• Econometric models: The FTC uses econometric models to analyze pricing data. These models help determine whether price changes are anomalous compared to historical trends and whether they result from market-driven causes or other factors.
• Market analysis and investigations: When price increases do not appear to be market-driven, the FTC may consult with other agencies, such as the Energy Information Administration, and state Attorneys General to discuss potential actions. This could include opening investigations to determine if anticompetitive practices are involved.
• Defining excessive pricing: Defining what constitutes an “excessive” price increase is challenging. The FTC must balance consumer protection with the need to allow firms to cover costs and invest in the market. The agency may look for evidence of manipulation or practices that lessen competition to justify enforcement actions.

— The 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago begins Monday and will be a significant event, with key activities and speakers planned. Highlights:

• Dates and location: The convention will take place from August 19 to August 22, primarily at the United Center in Chicago.

• Nomination and key speeches: Vice President Kamala Harris, who has been nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate, will deliver the final speech on Thursday. Her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, will speak on Wednesday. The convention will feature a ceremonial roll call since Harris and Walz have already been confirmed as nominees through a virtual vote.

Prominent speakers:

Monday, Aug. 19:
• President Joe Biden will speak on the opening night. Biden is expected to make defense of democracy and his partnership with Vice President Harris the central themes of his prime-time address. (Reuters reported Saturday First Lady Jill Biden is likely to join her husband on stage.)
• Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will address the convention.

Tuesday, Aug. 20:
• Former First Lady Michelle Obama
• Former President Barack Obama will deliver remarks
• Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker

Wednesday, Aug. 21:
• Former President Bill Clinton will speak before Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who will deliver his vice-presidential acceptance speech.

Thursday, Aug. 22:
• Vice President Kamala Harris will close out the convention with her presidential acceptance speech.

Other notable figures expected to participate include Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Additionally, Jason Carter, grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, is slated to speak on his grandfather’s behalf.

• Economic and social policies: Harris is expected to provide more details of her economic policy plan which she unveiled Friday in North Carolina. It includes expanding child tax credits, banning price gouging, and lowering prescription drug costs. These themes will be central to her campaign message and the party’s platform. Harris is expected to offer more policy details than her Republican counterparts, who largely avoided specifics in their platform. By doing so, she aims to showcase the Democrats’ commitment to substantive governance and provide voters with a clearer sense of their plans. However, Harris is likely to carefully navigate the level of detail she provides, ensuring she avoids being locked into positions that could become controversial or politically damaging later. This approach allows her to address key issues and differentiate the Democratic platform from the Republicans’ while maintaining the flexibility to adjust or refine policies as needed. Harris wants to strike a balance between offering enough detail to appear substantive and informed, while remaining vague enough to avoid potential pitfalls that could arise from more rigid commitments.

On other issues:

• Inflation: Kamala Harris is taking steps to distance herself from the economic challenges faced under President Biden’s administration, starting with a frank admission that inflation has significantly impacted the cost of living for American families, particularly in areas like food, gas, and housing. Her acknowledgment resonates with concerns across the political spectrum, even drawing an approving response from the Trump campaign, which used her remarks to underscore the difficulties Americans are facing.

• Border security: Recognizing Donald Trump’s advantage in polling on immigration issues, Harris has begun to emphasize a tougher stance on border security. Her recent ad campaign focuses on plans to hire more border agents and crack down on issues like fentanyl trafficking and human trafficking. While this approach is more assertive than previous Democratic positions, it stops short of Trump’s more extreme measures, such as mass deportations. Nonetheless, this marks a significant shift in the Democratic Party’s stance on immigration over the past four years.

• No tax on tips: On the same day she secured the endorsement of Nevada’s influential Culinary Union, Harris committed to eliminating taxes on tips, a move designed to appeal to working-class voters. This promise has sparked anger from Trump, who had made a similar pledge two months earlier, highlighting the competitive nature of the race to appeal to labor groups and service industry workers.

• No fracking ban: Harris continues to maintain a position of “strategic ambiguity” on energy issues, particularly regarding fracking. While she previously supported a ban on fracking on federal lands, she has since softened her stance, likely to avoid alienating voters in key swing states like Pennsylvania. This shift reflects the importance of energy policy in the upcoming election and the need for Harris to balance environmental concerns with economic and electoral realities.

• Protests and security: Protests are expected, particularly concerning the Democratic Party’s stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict. Designated protest areas have been established near the United Center, with Union Park being a primary location for demonstrations. In response to the expected protests over U.S. policy toward the war in Gaza, Harris will likely navigate a delicate balance. While she has attempted to show greater empathy toward the suffering of Palestinian civilians compared to President Biden, this has not been sufficient to satisfy protest groups that are demanding a complete reversal of U.S. support for Israel. Harris could emphasize the importance of a diplomatic solution to the conflict and the U.S. role in facilitating peace talks, hoping to address the concerns of protesters while maintaining the administration’s broader policy objectives. However, given the intensity of the opposition from some protest groups, which seek a more drastic change in U.S. policy, her efforts may only partially quell the discontent. The protests are likely to continue, with demonstrators pushing for more substantial shifts in U.S. foreign policy.

A “fresh face”? A poll conducted for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter found that 56% of voters in battleground states said Harris represents a chance to “turn the page of the Trump/Biden era.” The survey found that 59% of the voters in the seven battleground states — Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — said Harris represents “a new generation of leadership,” Walter wrote about the findings.

— On Tuesday, Alaska, Florida and Wyoming will hold nonpresidential primary elections. Key details for each state:

Alaska
• GOP Primary for U.S. House: The top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will utilize ranked-choice voting. The primary features Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola and two Republicans, Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom and businessman Nick Begich. The dynamics are complicated by Begich’s potential withdrawal if he finishes behind Dahlstrom, which could impact the Democratic strategy as they aim to secure a spot in the general election.
• State Senate District L: This district is notable for having a competitive race with multiple candidates, including Republican Senator Kelly Merrick, who has aligned with a bipartisan caucus, and three conservative challengers.

Florida
GOP Primaries:
• FL-01: Incumbent Matt Gaetz faces a primary challenge from Aaron Dimmock, who is perceived as a representative of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s faction.
• FL-15: This race includes candidates vying for influence within the party, with Trump endorsing Laurel Lee against challengers backed by far-right figures.
• State Senate Races: The rivalry between Trump and DeSantis is evident in the GOP primary for a retiring senator’s seat, with Trump supporting Sheriff David Shoar and DeSantis backing state Representative Tom Leek.

Wyoming
• GOP Senate Primaries: The primaries are crucial for the far-right faction of the Wyoming GOP, particularly in Districts 14, 20, 22, and 30. Key races include Speaker Albert Sommers, who faces a far-right challenger in District 14, and Senator Ed Cooper, who is up against a conservative competitor in District 20.

OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS

Monday, Aug. 19
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivers opening remarks at the 2024 Summer Workshop with focus on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance in Washington, DC; runs through Friday.
· Democratic National Convention opens in Chicago with President Joe Biden to deliver remarks. The event runs through Thursday when Vice President Kamala Harris will accept her party’s nomination for president (see details above).
· Elections and AI. University of Southern California’s Annenberg Center on Communication Leadership and Policy discussion on “Fake videos and election cybersecurity in the age of AI.”
· Cost of living. Axios discussion on “The Cost of Living Crisis for American Families.”
· Elections and Israel. Jewish Democratic Council of America discussion on “Harris and Trump: What This Election Means for Israel.”

Tuesday, Aug. 20
· Federal Reserve. Fed 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance, with a focus on “Money markets, collateral, and monetary policy.” Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks on Cybersecurity at the Joint Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee-Financial Services Sector Coordinating Council Meeting. Atlanta Fed Governor Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.
· Democratic National Convention. Former First Lady Michelle Obama and former President Barack Obama deliver remarks.
· U.S. presidential candidates expected to file financial disclosures to the Federal Election Commission covering the previous month.
· Argentine situation. FiscalNote’s FrontierView virtual discussion on “Argentina: Is A Turning Point Near?”
· SEC meeting. Securities and Exchange Commission virtual open meeting on public company accounting issues.
· Taiwan issues. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion on “Heading Toward War? Reevaluating Taiwan’s Status Quo.”
· Palestinian issues. Progressives for Palestine discussion on “The World’s Obligations to Palestine and Palestinians.

Wednesday, Aug. 21
· Federal Reserve. Fed 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance, with a focus on digital currencies.
· Democratic National Convention. Former President Bill Clinton and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to deliver remarks.
· U.S. CODEX meeting. U.S. Codex office virtual meeting of the Codex Alimentarius Commission’s Codex Committee on Food Import and Export Inspection and Certification Systems including a discussion on food inspection and certification systems.
· Administrative state. Cato Institute forum on “Reining in the Administrative State.”
· AI and national security risks. Center for a New American Security virtual discussion “Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Evolution of Biological National Security Risks.”

Thursday, Aug. 22
· Federal Reserve. Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy,” opens in Moran, Wyoming; runs through Saturday (see related item above).
· Democratic National Convention. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks accepting the party’s nomination for president.
· Stabenow remarks. Politico holds a discussion with Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) at the sidelines of the Democratic National Convention.

Friday, Aug. 23
· Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks (link) on the Economic Outlook at the Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Final day of the Fed’s 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance, with additional focus on digital currencies.
· Earthquakes. U.S. Geological Survey meeting of the Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee.

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will provide the keynote address on Aug. 23 at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Symposium (link). The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points Sept. 18 at the FOMC meeting, setting the stage for a gradual easing cycle that could extend into 2026. However, the exact path of the rate cuts will depend on economic data, particularly concerning whether the economy needs rescuing from a recession or merely a normalization of overly restrictive rates.

At recent Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposiums, the Federal Reserve has provided several key signals regarding its monetary policy:

• 2023 Symposium: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s commitment to reducing inflation to its 2% target. He indicated that while inflation had decreased from its peak, it remained too high, and the Fed was prepared to raise rates further if necessary. Powell highlighted that future monetary policy decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, considering the evolving economic data and outlook. He also reiterated that the Fed would maintain a restrictive policy stance until there was confidence that inflation was sustainably moving towards the target.
• 2022 Symposium: Powell delivered a hawkish speech, signaling the Fed’s strong commitment to fighting inflation. He stressed the importance of price stability as the bedrock of the economy and indicated that the Fed would use its tools forcefully to address inflation. Powell’s remarks at this symposium were noted for their impact on market expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s determination to manage inflationary pressures.

Of note: In 1989, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan participated, marking the first time a Fed chair had a formal role in the program. This set a precedent for future symposiums.

What about this year? “The Fed, we think, is likely to signal at Jackson Hole that a cut is likely at the next meeting, assuming that inflation progress holds,” said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America. But he added that the size of the cut, as well as the pace of future cuts, will depend on economic data. “So, we don’t think that the Fed will close the door on the possibility of doing larger cuts if it seems necessary — but it likely won’t do much to signal that that’s going to happen,” he said.

Monday, Aug. 19
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivers opening remarks at the hosts the 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance conference in Washington, DC; runs through Friday.
• Treasury Budget

Tuesday, Aug. 20
· Federal Reserve. The Fed 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance, with a focus on “Money markets, collateral, and monetary policy.” Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks on Cybersecurity at the Joint Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee-Financial Services Sector Coordinating Council Meeting. Atlanta Fed Governor Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.
· China: People’s Bank of China loan prime rate announcement. Few economists expect the People’s Bank of China to cut benchmark lending rates, despite slower economic growth and declining consumer confidence. Last month, the bank unexpectedly cut interest rates following the Third Plenum to help achieve the country’s 5% annual growth target. Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng has indicated a shift towards using the short-term seven-day reverse repo rate as the new anchor for interest rates.
· Canada’s CPI will help signal what the Bank of Canada will do at its Sept. 4 meeting. Moderation from 2.7% to 2.5% is the consensus estimate for headline consumer prices.

Wednesday, Aug. 21
· Federal Reserve. The Fed 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance, with a focus on “Money markets, collateral, and monetary policy,” with a focus on digital currencies.
• MBA Mortgage Applications
· Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
· FOMC Minutes

Thursday, Aug. 22
· Federal Reserve. Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy,” opens in Moran, Wyoming; runs through Saturday.
· Jobless Claims
· Chicago Fed National Activity Index
· PMI Composite Flash
· Existing Home Sales
• Fed Balance Sheet
• Money Supply
• Bank of Korea announcement is expected to hold policy steady.

Friday, Aug. 23
• New Home Sales

KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS

Focus this week will be on results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour as it scouts fields across seven Corn Belt states Aug. 19-22. Check www.profarmer.com for daily observations from fields and nightly results of state data.

Monday, Aug. 19

Ag reports and events:
· Export Inspections
· Food Expenditure Series
· Crop Progress

Energy reports and events:

WTI CSOs for September expire
EnerCom Denver — Energy Investment Conference; runs through Wednesday
China July output data for base metals and oil products
Holiday: Venezuela

Tuesday, Aug. 20

Ag reports and events:
• Season-Average Price Forecasts
• Feed Grains Database
• Wheat Data
• China’s 3rd batch of July trade data, including country breakdowns for commodities and energy
• Malaysia’s Aug. 1-20 palm oil exports

Energy reports and events:
• API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
• Namibia Oil & Gas Conference; runs through Thursday
• WTI September futures expire
• China third batch of July trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities
• Earnings: Sasol, Wood Group

Wednesday, Aug. 21

Ag reports and events:
• Rice Stocks
• Broiler Hatchery
• Milk Production
• Mushrooms

Energy reports and events:
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
• Genscape weekly crude inventory report
• Namibia Oil & Gas Conference, in Windhoek (through Aug. 22)
• Earnings: Santos

Thursday, Aug. 22

Ag reports and events:
• Export Sales
• Livestock Slaughter
• Poultry Slaughter
• Brazil’s Conab to release cane, sugar and ethanol output data
• Sugar production and cane crush data from Brazil’s Unica (tentative)
• Port of Rouen data on French grain exports

Energy reports and events:
• EIA Natural Gas Report
• Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
• Namibia Oil & Gas Conference, in Windhoek (last day)

Friday, Aug. 23

Ag reports and events:
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report
• Food Price Outlook
• Cattle on Feed
• Chickens & Eggs
• Cold Storage
• Peanut Prices
• FranceAgriMer’s weekly crop condition report
• Earnings: Inghams Group

Energy reports and events:
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil

KEY LINKS