CPI Data Highlights Fed’s Cautious Stance on Rate Cuts; Numbers Meet Expectations

FTC prepares lawsuit against Deere over repair practices | PFAS | Vilsack on biofuels

News Markets Policy updates
Farm Journal
(Farm Journal)

News/Markets/Policy Updates: Jan. 15, 2025


Modified format today as I am in Wilmar, Minnesota, for a speaking event.


— CPI data highlights fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose 0.4%, slightly above November’s 0.3% increase and expectations of a steady 0.3%. The annual inflation rate remained in line with forecasts at 2.9%. Core inflation saw a monthly rise of 0.2%, down from 0.3% in November, with the annualized rate easing to 3.2% — just below the expected 3.3%.

Food prices increased by 0.3% in December, with grocery prices mirroring this rise. Annualized food inflation reached 2.5%, while grocery prices climbed 1.9% year-over-year. Notably, egg prices spiked 3.2% on a monthly basis.

Bottom line: This data supports the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on further interest rate cuts, aligning with its narrative that while inflation is easing, it remains sufficiently elevated to justify prudence.

— President Joe Biden will deliver a primetime farewell address to the nation today. It is the first time Biden will speak publicly from the Oval Office since he explained why he dropped out of the presidential race back in July. The Washington Post notes some big questions loom over President Biden’s final days in office, including how much Inflation Reduction Act money his administration will get out the door and who he’ll pardon.

— FTC prepares lawsuit against Deere over repair practices. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is preparing to file a lawsuit against Deere & Co. for allegedly violating U.S. competition laws by restricting access to key repair information and diagnostic tools, according to a Bloomberg report (link). While the FTC commissioners have yet to vote on the matter, the suit could be filed as early as this week. The agency’s investigation, ongoing since 2021, claims Deere’s equipment design often necessitates proprietary software available only to authorized dealers, limiting farmers and independent repair shops’ ability to perform repairs. Deere had previously agreed in January 2023, through an accord with the American Farm Bureau Federation, to expand access to repair tools, but concerns over compliance persist.

— USDA to announce biofuel and bioeconomy initiatives. Today, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack will unveil updates on the USDA’s efforts to expand revenue and market opportunities for biofuel producers via climate-smart agriculture markets. Key initiatives include domestic biofuels and Sustainable Aviation Fuels, which aim to bolster opportunities for American agriculture and rural communities in the long term.

— Agricultural disaster aid overview. The $21 billion agricultural disaster aid package, approved by Congress in late 2024 as part of the American Relief Act, aims to address losses from natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 (link for details). However, state-by-state distribution details remain unavailable as implementation is under the purview of the USDA. Key features of the aid package:

· Scope: Covers damages from droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, floods, and other natural disasters.
· Livestock Allocation: Up to $2 billion designated for livestock producers impacted by drought, wildfires, and floods.
· State Block Grants: $220 million allocated for small agricultural states meeting specific criteria, including Alaska, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
· Distribution mechanism: Pending USDA guidelines.
· Timeline: Uncertainty persists due to administrative transitions at USDA.

Of note: Accurate allocation estimates will depend on disaster severity and USDA’s final distribution framework. Further details are anticipated as USDA develops its implementation plan.

— Equities: U.S. equity futures are a lot higher following the CPI and earnings reports, with European shares led by UK stocks thanks to more “cooler-than-feared” inflation data released overnight. In Asia, Japan -0.1%. Hong Kong +0.3%. China -0.4%. India +0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.7%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.8%.

Equities on Tuesday: All three major indices traded in negative territory during the session but only the Nasdaq failed to end higher. The Dow rose 221.16 points, 0.52%, at 42,518.28. The Nasdaq declined 43.71 points, 0.23%, at 19,044.39. The S&P 500 was up 6.69 points, 0.11%, at 5,842.91.

Federal Reserve speeches today. Fed’s New York President John Williams delivers a speech, as well as Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Richmond President Thomas Barkin. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the first of eight times this year. The report gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions from the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks.

Fourth-quarter earnings season starts today, as big U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all report. They’ll be followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. Updates: JPMorgan Chase topped estimates on better-than-expected fixed income and investment banking results. Goldman Sachs’s fourth quarter profits more than doubled to $4.1 billion, boosted by strength in its investment bank, expansion of its asset management business and a surprise $472 million gain from a balance sheet bet. Here’s what Goldman Sachs reported vs what Wall Street analysts surveyed by LSEG were expecting:

Earnings: $11.95 a share, vs. $8.22 expected
Revenue: $13.87 billion, vs. $12.39 billion expected

— Canada approves Bunge’s $8.2 billion acquisition of Glencore-backed Viterra after the companies agreed to concessions addressing antitrust concerns. These include selling six western Canadian grain elevators and imposing restrictions on Bunge’s 25% stake in G3 Global Holdings, a partnership involving Saudi Arabia and Canadian farmers. There will be controls on Bunge’s minority ownership stake in Saudi-owned G3, price protections are included for certain buyers of canola oil in Central and Atlantic Canada, the Viterra head office still stay in Regina for at least five years, and Bunge will invest at least C$520 million ($362 million) in Canada in the next five years. Reports noted that Bunge, Viterra and G3 account for a combined one-third of Western Canada’s elevator capacity. The deal ensures competitive safeguards while securing economic benefits for Canada. Both companies play pivotal roles globally in grain and oilseed markets, and supplying industries like food production and biofuels.

— Federal deficit surges in Early FY 2025. The federal budget deficit reached $710.9 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2025, a 39.4% increase compared to the same period last year. Key factors driving this surge include:

· Rising financing costs: Net interest payments increased by $26 billion, with debt servicing now the second-largest federal expense after Social Security.
· Growing expenditures: Spending rose by 11%, with notable increases in Social Security (+$23 billion), Medicare (+$13 billion), and clean energy grants (+$21 billion).
· Declining tax revenues: Revenues fell by 2%, primarily due to reductions in individual and corporate income tax collections.

The national debt surpassed $36 trillion, highlighting long-term fiscal challenges. Although December 2024 saw a 33% decline in the monthly deficit due to timing shifts, structural issues persist. Policymakers face critical decisions in 2025 to stabilize the nation’s financial trajectory.

— Mortgage rates surpass 7%, highest level since May 2024. U.S. mortgage rates reached 7.09% for 30-year fixed mortgages, the highest since May 2024, according to Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data. This marks a near 1% increase in borrowing costs since late September, driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields, resilient economic indicators, and inflationary concerns tied to federal policies. While elevated rates and high home prices strain affordability, MBA’s data shows a surprising uptick in market activity. Home purchase applications rose by nearly 27%, and refinancing applications surged 43.5% last week. However, annual comparisons reveal a 1.8% decline in purchase applications. The MBA survey reflects over 75% of the U.S. retail mortgage market, offering insights into the impact of economic shifts on housing affordability and buyer behavior.

— U.S. bans imports from 37 Chinese firms over forced labor charge. The Biden administration added 37 companies from China’s mining, solar and textile sectors to its list of those banned from exporting to the U.S. due to alleged forced labor practices in the Xinjiang region. The additions represent the largest single expansion of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act list since the law was passed in 2021, raising the total number of companies banned to 144. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun called the law “evil,” and said the bans on the companies amounted to interference in the country’s internal affairs, adding Beijing would “take resolute measures to firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.”

— China’s central bank pumps near-record level of cash into financial system. The People’s Bank of China injected a net 958.4 billion yuan ($131 billion) of cash via seven-day reverse repurchase agreements in daily open market operations, the second highest on record in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2004. The operation is aimed at offsetting the impact of the expiration of medium-term lending, peak tax season and cash demand before Lunar New Year holidays, keeping banking system liquidity ample. The central bank has also been using liquidity measures to expand its support for the yuan, which has come under pressure from a strengthening dollar. It sold a record 60 billion yuan of six-month bills in Hong Kong on Wednesday, a move which will drain liquidity offshore to support demand for the currency.

— Ag markets:

Corn and beans mildly firmer, wheat weaker overnight. Corn and soybeans rebounded from Tuesday’s losses overnight, while wheat faced light selling pressure. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn and soybean futures were trading fractionally to a penny higher, while wheat futures were 1 to 4 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index was around 170 points lower, and front-month crude oil futures were modestly firmer.

Early cash cattle activity gives hopes of steady/firmer trade. Light cash cattle trade occurred at the top of last week’s price range in the northern market on Tuesday, suggesting prices may be steady/firmer again this week. Uncertain is whether this was cleanup sales from last week or fresh business. Either way, it doesn’t appear prices will fall much if any this week.

Traders build hog futures’ premiums to cash index. The CME lean hog index is up 23 cents to $80.99 as of Jan. 13, the second straight daily gain after the recent string of losses. February lean hog futures finished Tuesday $2.635 above today’s cash quote, suggesting traders sense a seasonal low is in place and cash prices will firm over the next month.

Ag trade: Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of U.S. corn. Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.

— U.S. importers rush shipments from China as tariff threat looms. U.S. imports from China finished 2024 strong as some companies stockpiled shipments ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to impose new tariffs that could revive a trade war between the two countries. The equivalent of 451,000 40-foot containers of goods from China landed at U.S. ports in December, a 14.5% jump from year-ago, according to trade data supplier Descartes Systems Group. U.S. imports from China rose 15% from the previous year in 2024.

— Germany reports no new cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD). Germany has not identified any new cases of FMD, Agriculture Minister Cem Oezdemir announced, following the confirmation of the first case since 1988 in a herd of water buffalo near Berlin. Efforts are focused on controlling the outbreak, while Germany collaborates with European Union (EU) partners to maintain export markets for unaffected regions. Non-EU countries such as the U.S., Mexico, South Korea, and the UK have suspended imports of German livestock and related products as the investigation into the outbreak’s origin continues.

— Vietnam’s rice exports expected to fall sharply in 2025. Vietnam’s rice exports are forecast at 7.5 MMT this year, the chairman of the Vietnam Food Association said, down 17% from a record 9.04 MMT in 2024. Rice shipments from Vietnam this year will face challenges of possible increased supplies from India and Indonesia’s efforts to cut down on its imports, the association’s chairman Nguyen Ngoc Nam told Reuters. However, he noted export prospects to China “are looking brighter.”

— Oil prices dip amid EIA forecasts and new U.S. sanctions. Oil prices declined on Tuesday as the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected steady domestic demand for 2025 alongside a slight supply increase. Brent crude fell 1.35% to $79.92 per barrel, and WTI dropped 1.67% to $77.50. Losses were tempered by fresh U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil exports to India and China.

The average cost of a gallon of gasoline was $3.07 as of Monday, according to AAA. That’s only up about 4 cents from a month ago. But diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil have all moved up significantly so far in 2025, up as much as 18 cents per gallon in some cases. And that could have an impact on household heating bills, airlines, and transportation services that are factored into the inflation measures such as the consumer price index.

— Oil prices could drop by over 17% from current levels by 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency projects Brent crude could average $66 per barrel, down from today’s $80, driven by slower demand growth and an expected supply surplus. In contrast, natural gas prices are forecasted to nearly double, reaching $4 per million British thermal units in 2026, as demand rises due to its increasing use in power generation.

Key trends include:
· Oil supply and demand: Global oil production is expected to outpace consumption through 2026, with U.S. production hitting a record 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025 before slowing. Rising EV adoption, especially in China, is curbing demand growth.
· Natural gas dynamics: As coal continues to be replaced in electricity production, natural gas demand is surging, supporting higher prices.
· Market impact: Leading natural gas producers, such as EQT and Expand Energy, have seen significant stock gains, while oil-heavy giants like Exxon Mobil and Chevron have declined modestly in recent months.

— Trump’s Energy Secretary nominee: Chris Wright’s vision for U.S. energy expansion. Chris Wright, Donald Trump’s pick for Energy Secretary, emphasized the need to “unleash” American energy production in testimony before the Senate. Wright, founder of Liberty Energy Inc., advocates for expanding nuclear power, liquified natural gas (LNG), and fossil fuels, while criticizing climate change policies and renewable energy subsidies.

He has assailed subsidies for wind and solar power and said fossil fuels were crucial for spreading prosperity and lifting people from poverty. He has called the threat posed by climate change exaggerated. “There is no climate crisis. And we are not in the midst of an energy transition either,” Wright said in a video posted on his LinkedIn page. “Life on earth is simply impossible without carbon dioxide — hence the term carbon pollution is outrageous.”

Of note: Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who met with Wright, said the Liberty Energy CEO “did not seem to know anything” about the clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. “He wasn’t up on it at all,” Wyden said.

Wright’s focus includes innovation, energy dominance, and leveraging U.S. energy resources as a strategic national asset. His remarks highlight a shift toward traditional energy under Trump, contrasting sharply with the previous administration’s renewable energy priorities.

Bottom line: If confirmed as expected, Wright will oversee a vast department responsible for nuclear security, energy innovation, and LNG export projects, and play a central role in advancing Trump’s energy agenda.

— GOP leaders align with oil and gas industry at API event. Top Republican lawmakers pledged to support policy changes favored by the oil and gas sector, focusing on reversing Biden administration regulations and shaping a reconciliation package.

At the American Petroleum Institute’s State of American Energy event, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) criticized the EPA’s waiver for California’s clean cars rule as “radical regulatory overreach” and suggested the Congressional Review Act could counter such moves. While expressing reservations about blanket tariffs, Thune indicated support for targeted tariffs and emphasized bipartisan cooperation on energy issues with select Democratic and independent senators.

House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) outlined plans to include GOP energy priorities in a reconciliation package, spanning permitting, mining, and forest management. He expressed optimism about oil and gas leasing as a revenue-raiser, despite past shortfalls attributed to Biden administration policies.

— EPA draft highlights health risks of PFAS-contaminated sewage sludge in agriculture. On Tuesday (Jan. 14), EPA released a draft risk assessment addressing the health risks of using PFAS-contaminated sewage sludge as fertilizer on farms (link to EPA fact sheet). Key findings:

· Health risks: Farmers and consumers of products from contaminated land face significant health concerns, including elevated cancer risks that exceed EPA’s acceptable thresholds by “several orders of magnitude.”
· Exposure pathways: High-risk exposure routes include consuming milk from pasture-raised cows, fish from contaminated lakes, and beef or eggs from affected animals.
· Hot spots: While the general food supply isn’t significantly affected, specific farming operations in contaminated regions are at heightened risk.

Implications and future actions:
· Regulatory framework: Findings will inform potential regulations under the Clean Water Act.
· Risk reduction: Lowering PFAS levels in biosolids or reducing application on agricultural land can mitigate risks.
· Collaboration: EPA highlights the need for partnerships with affected farmers and federal agencies for effective risk management.

Of note: Link to EPA webinar today on the topic.

— Hegseth’s Defense Secretary confirmation hearing sparks partisan clash. Pete Hegseth’s confirmation hearing for defense secretary was marked by robust Republican support and fierce Democratic scrutiny. Highlights:

Republican backing:
· Republicans praised Hegseth’s combat experience, with Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) stating, “Combat builds men like Pete.”
· Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) expressed strong support, signaling confidence in Hegseth’s confirmation. Ernst said she would vote for Hegseth. Thune told reporters that Hegseth did well and expects he’ll be quickly confirmed.

Democratic opposition: Ranking member Jack Reed (R.I.) criticized Hegseth, claiming he lacked “character and competence” to lead the Pentagon.

Contentious questioning: Democrats questioned Hegseth on allegations of sexual misconduct, alcohol issues, and his opposition to women in combat roles.

Hegseth’s defense: He dismissed the allegations as a “coordinated smear campaign” and pledged to instill a “warrior culture” at the Pentagon.

Path to confirmation: With a narrow Republican majority, Hegseth’s confirmation hinges on maintaining party unity. A full Senate vote is expected soon. If all Senate Democrats oppose him, Hegseth will have to secure the backing of at least 50 of the 53 Republicans in the chamber. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), a swing vote, declined to comment after Hegseth’s confirmation hearing. The Senate Armed Services Committee already noticed a vote on Hegseth’s nomination for Monday. Democrats are unlikely to consent to expediting the floor process, so it could take a few days to complete the nomination vote.

— Trump nominee hearings today: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the secretary of state nominee, will appear before the Foreign Relations Committee. Pam Bondi, the nominee for attorney general, will testify in front of the Judiciary Committee. And John Ratcliffe, the CIA director nominee, will appear before the Intelligence Committee.

— Johnson eyes long-term debt limit extension; Foxx to chair Rules panel. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is exploring a strategy to increase the debt limit for the entirety of Donald Trump’s presidency, aiming to sidestep repeated politically challenging votes over the next four years. While Johnson acknowledged the fiscal and political complexities of such a move, he remains open to various mechanisms for resolving the issue, including working with Democrats, despite potential demands from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

Johnson also finalized key appointments in the House Rules Committee, naming Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) as chair. Notable changes include the removal of Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.), with replacements being Reps. Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) and Brian Jack (R-Ga.), respectively. Jack, a Trump ally, is expected to bolster Johnson’s influence on the panel.

— House debate over California wildfire aid heats up. The U.S. House of Representatives is headed for a contentious debate over disaster relief for California as wildfires continue to devastate the state. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and many Republicans have proposed placing conditions on aid, citing alleged mismanagement of water resources and forest practices by local officials. Democrats, however, strongly oppose attaching stipulations, emphasizing the urgency of providing relief without political strings.

California Republicans remain divided. Some, like Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.), advocate for policy reforms tied to the aid, while others, such as Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), argue against stringent conditions, stressing the need for immediate support for victims.

The debate extends beyond wildfire relief, with some Republicans proposing to link the aid to unrelated issues, such as the national debt ceiling. Democrats have accused Republicans of politicizing the disaster, while Johnson insists his approach is fiscally responsible and not politically motivated.

— Trump 2.0 policy agenda faces aggressive timelines and key challenges. As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his inauguration on Monday, significant groundwork is already underway on Capitol Hill. The House Republican leadership is moving swiftly on multiple fronts, with tight deadlines and an ambitious policy agenda. Some key developments:

Tax policy meeting today. At 3 p.m. ET, House Republicans will hold a members-only meeting in the Cannon Caucus Room to discuss tax policy as part of upcoming reconciliation packages.

Speaker Mike Johnson’s tight reconciliation timeline. According to Punchbowl News, Johnson (R-La.) is pushing for a bold reconciliation schedule. The House aims to pass a budget resolution by Feb. 27, marking it up as early as Feb. 3 and finalizing the floor vote by Feb. 10. Johnson’s plan includes Senate consideration by Feb. 17 and a final House vote incorporating Senate changes by Feb. 24. The reconciliation package, addressing taxes, border security, and energy policy, is targeted for completion before Easter recess in April. This aggressive timeline raises skepticism among lawmakers and aides about its feasibility.

Government funding and debt limit challenges. Congress faces a March 14 deadline to fund the government, leaving just 58 days to avert a shutdown. Meanwhile, Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) will seek bipartisan support for a funding bill, potentially linked to a four-year debt-limit increase as we noted previously. Complicating matters, they aim to simultaneously pass a budget resolution with significant spending cuts, a hard sell for Democrats.

State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction debate. The SALT deduction cap, introduced in the 2017 tax law, is under scrutiny. Blue-state Republicans are pushing for relief, with discussions underway on alternative proposals such as increased caps or income-based deductions.

— The House Ag Committee is undergoing significant changes, with eight new Democrats joining this Congress, largely replacing senior members who have either left Congress or moved to other committees.

New members: Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) is the sole non-freshman among the new additions. Freshmen members include Reps. Adam Gray (Calif.), Kristen McDonald Rivet (Mich.), Shomari Figures (Ala.), Eugene Vindman (Va.), Josh Riley (N.Y.), John Mannion (N.Y.), and April McClain Delaney (Md.).

Generational shift: The committee now includes 15 returning Democrats and will be led by Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) as the new ranking member.

Departures: Seven senior Democrats were not included in the preliminary roster: Reps. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), Jasmine Crockett (Texas), Greg Casar (Texas), Chellie Pingree (Maine), Salud Carbajal (Calif.), Darren Soto (Fla.), and Sanford Bishop (Ga.).

Open seats: Two spots remain available for members who obtain waivers to join the committee.

— Trump announces plan for “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs and duties, a task now handled by Customs and Border Protection. President-elect Donald Trump unveiled plans to establish the “External Revenue Service” (ERS), a federal agency designed to collect tariffs, duties, and other revenue from foreign sources. The announcement, made Tuesday (Jan. 14) on Truth Social, outlines a strategy aimed at shifting the financial burden of trade from American taxpayers to foreign nations.

Purpose: The ERS seeks to redirect trade-related costs to foreign entities, emphasizing “fair contributions” from U.S. trade partners.
Launch date: The agency is slated to begin operations on Jan. 20, 2025, coinciding with Trump’s inauguration.
Scope: Responsibilities include collecting tariffs, duties, and foreign-generated revenue, akin to the IRS’s role in domestic tax collection.
Legal hurdles: Congressional approval is required to establish a new federal agency.
Overlap: Functions may duplicate existing agencies like U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Economic risks: Critics warn of higher consumer prices and possible foreign retaliation.
Political pushback: Opponents label the initiative a “tax hike” and question its broader economic implications.

Upshot: This proposal reflects Trump’s commitment to imposing significant tariffs on major trade partners and utilizing these revenues as an alternative to income taxes. However, the plan’s feasibility and economic impact remain contested.

— President Joe Biden will remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, part of a series of steps to ease U.S. policy toward the communist country in a bid to secure the release of political prisoners. The timing of the move is aggressive, coming just before today’s confirmation hearing for Trump’s pick to be secretary of state, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants and a fierce critic of Havana’s government. Trump very likely will reverse Biden’s Cuba move, which attracted swift criticism from Republicans as well as Florida Democrats, who Axios reported worry it gives Trump the chance to “frame their party as beholden to socialists.”

— Israel and Gaza agree on ceasefire’s initial phase. Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement in principle on a ceasefire in Gaza, according to CBS News (link), citing Israeli, Arab, and U.S. officials. Final details will be negotiated this week, with potential implementation by the weekend of Jan. 18-19. While the first phase of the ceasefire is likely to proceed, it won’t end all hostilities. Both sides may exploit the agreement for political gain, risking violations. Israel is expected to maintain a long-term presence in Gaza, akin to its control over the West Bank, fostering further settlement activity and potential violence. Additionally, unresolved hostage situations and external regional threats, including Iran, may disrupt progress toward the ceasefire’s later phases.

The agreement outlines three phases:
Phase 1: Hamas to release 33 hostages over six weeks in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, Israeli troop withdrawal from Palestinian cities, and increased aid flow.
Phase 2: Remaining hostages freed in exchange for additional prisoner releases and complete Israeli withdrawal.
Phase 3: Dead Israeli hostages returned in exchange for a reconstruction period under international supervision.

Israel is also expected to seek increased U.S. military co-ordination under the incoming Trump administration and may push forward controversial West Bank annexation plans to secure domestic political support.

— Debbie Stabenow joins Liberty Partners Group. Former Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who recently concluded nearly three decades in Congress — including 24 years in the Senate — has joined Liberty Partners Group as a senior policy adviser. Stabenow was a prominent figure in the Senate, serving as the No. 3 Democrat and chair of the Senate Ag Committee. While subject to a two-year cooling-off period before lobbying her former congressional colleagues, she is free to lobby the administration immediately if desired.

— CEOs growing more concerned about trade wars amid rising geopolitical tensions. A new survey by The Conference Board reveals that global CEOs are significantly more worried about trade wars than they were a year ago, Axios Markets co-author Felix Salmon reports. As businesses brace for President-elect Trump’s administration, concerns about foreign investment restrictions and conflicts in the Asia-Pacific are escalating.

Of note: These geopolitical fears haven’t undermined overall economic optimism. Notably, only 40% of U.S. CEOs now see the risk of an economic downturn or recession as a high-impact issue, down from 55% last year.

Concerns.jpg
CEO Concerns
(Created with Datawrapper; Conference Board, Axios )

Data: The Conference Board. (2025 respondents picked their top risk in two categories — economic and conflict. 2024 respondents picked their top three overall.) Chart: Axios Visuals

— NWS outlook: Critical fire weather conditions will continue across coastal southern California today, but improvement expected toward end of week... ...Temperatures will start off cold but will warm from west to east from
Great Plains to Appalachians through Friday... ...Localized heavy lake effect snow showers will begin to wane downwind of the Great Lakes tonight but at least light snow to continue into Friday

NWS_011525.jpg
NWS Outlook
(NWS)

KEY DATES IN JANUARY

15: BLS consumer price index report (inflation)
15: Quarterly estimated taxes due
15: Last day to enroll in a 2025 health plan via HealthCare.gov
20: Inauguration Day
20: College football national championship
24: USDA Food Price Outlook
26: AFC and NFC football championships
27: First day IRS will begin accepting 2024 federal tax returns
28: Florida’s 1st and 6th special primaries
31: Employers and financial institutions should send out W-2 and 1099 tax forms
31: Federal Open Market Committee meets
31: USDA Cattle

LINKS

Economic aid for farmers | Disaster aid for farmers | Farm Bureau summary of aid/disaster/farm bill extension | 45Z tax incentive program | Poultry and swine line speeds | WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum |