Consumer Prices Rose 0.3% in December, Higher than Expected; Annual Rate Rises to 3.4%

But core inflation falls to 2.5-year low

Jim Wiesemeyer

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January 11, 2024 08:17 AM

But core inflation falls to 2.5-year low

Today’s Digital Newspaper

MARKET FOCUS

Inflation picked up in December
JPMorgan Asset says Fed interest rate cuts may exceed forecasts
U.S. SEC approves 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, to begin trading today
Japan to end negative interest rate policy?
Renewable energy surges, but global climate goals still far off
Natural gas giants agree to combine
Maersk shifts to rail transport over low water levels in Panama Canal
Ag markets today
Ag trade update
NWS weather outlook
Pro Farmer First Thing Today items

CONGRESS

GOP conservatives revolt against Johnson’s spending deal
Schumer sets up stopgap funding bill to avoid shutdown, Johnson faces GOP division
Senate considers expediting migrant work permits amid border negotiation

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

UN’s judicial body will begin hearings accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza .
Israeli hostages in Gaza Strip “will not be returned alive” unless Israeli forces leave

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

With additional U.S. aid to Ukraine in doubt, focus turns to European leaders
Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria reach agreement to clean mines floating in Black Sea

CHINA

Chinese commodities exchanges ending rebates paid on some automated trades
Wheat, sorghum and cotton biggest sales to China in most recent week

TRADE POLICY

China dethroned as top U.S. exporter by Mexico amid supply chain shifts
Global trade drops 1.3% on Red Sea attacks

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

Yellen praises surging clean energy tax break uptake despite budget concerns
Japan challenges China’s solar dominance with ultrathin film

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

Christie ends his presidential bid
Trump settled on running mate for 2024 general election campaign if he is candidate
DeSantis and Haley clash in heated 2024 GOP debate
The case for Trump… by someone who wants him to lose

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

IMF agrees to disburse $4.7billion to Argentina

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly firmer. Japan’s Nikkei average hovers above the 35,000 mark, highest since 1990. While traders continue to expect growth to return to the Japanese economy after years of deflation and tighter monetary policy, weaker wage data capped bets of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates soon. In Asia, Japan +1.8%. Hong Kong +1.3%. China +0.3%. India +0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.1%.Traders hope U.S. inflation data will help clarify the path for Federal Reserve policy.

U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices registered gains as traders were in part looking ahead to CPI data due this morning. The Dow rose 170.57 points, 0.45%, at 37,695.73. The Nasdaq rose 111.94 points, 0.75%, at 14,969.65. The S&P 500 was up 26.95 points, 0.57%, at 4,783.45.

— SEC approves first bitcoin investment funds after false start. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding bitcoin on Wednesday, the first time the agency has permitted the trading of funds directly invested in a cryptocurrency. The new funds, known as spot-bitcoin ETFs because they buy and sell the digital currency itself, are expected to begin trading today. The decision comes after the SEC’s account on X was hacked Tuesday and sparked confusion by falsely announcing the approval of the spot bitcoin ETFs. The fake announcement was online for about 30 minutes before it was removed and replaced with a disavowal by the agency. House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) labeled the approvals “a historic milestone.” Crypto skeptic Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said the decision was a mistake and means “millions of ordinary investors will be at risk of financial ruin in the next crypto crash.” Despite the breakthrough move, SEC head Gary Gensler reiterated the agency doesn’t endorse digital assets.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

Corn: March corn rose 1/4 cent to $4.59 1/2, notching a high-range close.
Soy complex: March soybeans fell 12 cents to $12.36 1/2, near the daily low and at a six-month low close. March soybean meal lost $3.30 at $364.30 and nearer the session low. Meal prices closed at a seven-month-low close. March bean oil closed down 20 points at 48.25 cents and nearer the session low.
Wheat: March SRW wheat rose 3/4 cent to $6.10 3/4, ending the session above the 40-day moving average, while HRW wheat ended 2 1/2 cents lower at $6.24 1/2. March HRS wheat rose 2 1/4 cents to $7.07 3/4.
Cotton: March cotton fell 55 points at 80.18 cents and nearer the session low.
Cattle: Live cattle futures posted a mixed closing Wednesday, with nearby February slipping 2.5 cents to settle at $170.75. In contrast, feeder futures posted sizeable gains. The expiring January contract gained 85 cents to $224.625, while most-active March climbed $1.25 to $226.125.
Hogs: February lean hog futures rallied 20 cents to $72.075, marking the highest close since November.

— Ag markets today: Soybeans traded solidly higher overnight, while corn and wheat pivoted around unchanged in light trade. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading fractionally higher, soybeans were 7 to 8 cents higher, winter wheat markets were mostly a penny lower and spring wheat was fractionally to a penny higher. Front-month crude oil futures were around $1.50 higher, and the U.S. dollar was more than 100 points lower.

Slow developing cash cattle market. Cash cattle are expected to trade higher for a fourth consecutive week, though the winter storm with another wave coming, along with arctic temps this time has created uncertainty. After temporarily shuttering or reducing slaughter runs, plants are trying to figure out how big of a Saturday kill they want to run, especially given highly negative margins, which will impact their buying decisions for cash cattle this week.

More signs of a seasonal low for cash hogs. The CME lean hog index is up 63 cents to $66.46 (as of Jan. 9) and is now $1.41 off the Jan. 1 low. Traders are seemingly gaining more confidence the cash market has posted a seasonal low as they have been regular buyers on intraday weakness in futures during the move off the recent lows.

— Quotes of note:

Fedspeak. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said monetary policy is now tight enough to guide inflation back to the Fed’s target, but suggested policymakers need more evidence of cooling inflation before cutting interest rates.
JPMorgan Asset says Fed interest rate cuts may exceed forecasts. The Fed may end up cutting interest rates more than it’s currently signaling as the U.S. economy slows, driving a rally in shorter-maturity Treasuries, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
Former Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai suggests that the central bank is prepared to end the world’s last remaining negative interest rate policy. The most probable timing for this change is in April, and it may depend on specific economic data triggers. However, what might surprise market observers is the gradual and distinct approach Japan’s central bank intends to take during its normalization process after the initial interest rate hike. This approach will differ from what traders have seen in the United States and Europe, according to Sakurai.
Shipping dilemma. “It’s unclear to us if we are talking about re-establishing safe passage into the Red Sea in a matter of days, weeks or months.” — Vincent Clerc, the CEO of the shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk. He warned in the Financial Times that attacks on commercial traffic by Iran-backed Houthi forces, which have forced some companies to reroute vessels around Africa, could hurt global growth.

— Inflation moderated less than expected last month, according to government data released Thursday, potentially tempering the bullish case behind the stock market’s historic run in recent months. Consumer prices ticked up 0.3% from November to December, the most in three months and above forecasts of 0.2%, bringing annualized inflation to 3.4%, coming in hotter than average economist estimates of 0.2% month-over-month and 3.2% annual inflation, according to FactSet.

Energy prices went down at a slower pace. Energy costs dropped 2% (vs -5.4% in November), with gasoline declining 1.9% (vs -8.9%), utility (piped) gas service falling 13.8% (vs -10.4%) and fuel oil sinking 14.7% (vs -24.8%).

Meanwhile, prices increased at a softer pace for food (2.7% vs. 2.9%), shelter (6.2% vs. 6.5%), new vehicles (1% vs. 1.3%), apparel (1% vs. 1.1%), medical care commodities (4.7% vs 5%) and transportation services (9.7% vs. 10.1%) and continued to decline for used cars and trucks (-1.3% vs -3.8%).

Of note: Core inflation, which excludes more erratic food and energy price changes, declined to its lowest level since May 2021, checking in at 3.9% on an annual basis, but still above estimates of 3.8%.

Shorter-term inflation data is on the cusp of clearing Fed officials’ 2% goal: Core prices rose less than 1% from June to December, equating to 1.9% inflation on an annualized basis.

— Japan to end negative interest rate policy? Former Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai suggests the central bank is prepared to end the world’s last remaining negative interest rate policy. The most probable timing for this change is in April, and it may depend on specific economic data triggers. However, what might surprise market observers is the gradual and distinct approach Japan’s central bank intends to take during its normalization process after the initial interest rate hike. This approach will differ from what traders have seen in the U.S. and Europe, according to Sakurai.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker, with the euro and British pound both firmer against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was weaker, trading around 3.99%, with a mostly lower tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil markets mostly maintained advances seen in Asian trading with U.S. crude around $72.75 per barrel and Brent around $78.20 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were registering gains ahead of the CPI report, with gold around $2,038 per troy ounce and silver around $23.26 per troy ounce.

— Renewable energy surges, but global climate goals still far off. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a significant increase in the deployment of renewable energy in the past year, primarily driven by China, which contributed to a 50% rise in global renewable energy capacity. However, this growth, while promising, falls short of the UN-agreed target to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial times. While this progress is encouraging, the IEA’s executive director, Fatih Birol, emphasized the need for growth in emerging and developing countries, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and other parts of Asia. China played a pivotal role in driving renewable energy growth, with more than doubling its solar capacity in 2023 and witnessing a 66% increase in wind power capacity from the previous year. The IEA emphasized that fossil fuel demand needs to decline by 25% by the end of the decade to align with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The current global temperature rise is already at least 1.1°C, and 2023 was recorded as the hottest year on record.

— Natural gas giants agree to combine. Chesapeake Energy said it would acquire Southwestern Energy in an all-stock deal valued at $7.4 billion, creating one of the nation’s largest energy producers. It’s the latest big deal in the oil and gas sector in recent months, even as lower oil prices weigh on the industry’s profits.

— Maersk shifts to rail transport over low water levels in Panama Canal. AP Moller-Maersk, a major shipping company, has decided to use rail transport to move cargo across Panama, bypassing the Panama Canal. The reason behind this shift is the significantly reduced shipping traffic in the canal due to low water levels caused by drought. Instead of utilizing the Panama Canal, Maersk will employ a “land bridge” approach, using rail transport to cover the 49.7 miles of Panama’s terrain. This move is a response to the challenges posed by the ongoing low-water levels in the canal, which have already slowed down the passage of goods. This decision by Maersk adds another layer of complexity to the shipping industry, which is already grappling with issues related to reduced canal passage and the avoidance of the Red Sea and Suez Canal due to attacks by Houthi rebels.

— Ag trade update: Japan purchased 89,260 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender, including 57,430 MT U.S. and 89,260 MT Canadian.

— NWS weather outlook: Strong low-pressure system develops over the Southern Plains and brings widespread rain, snow, and wind for the eastern half of the nation... ...Dangerously cold temperatures for the northern Rockies and Plains through this weekend.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Beans firmer, corn and wheat little changed overnight
• Exchange forecasts record Argentine corn crop

CONGRESS

— House conservatives block procedural vote in opposition to spending deal. A group of House conservatives, dissatisfied with a spending deal reached by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) with Democrats, blocked a procedural vote on Wednesday (vote was 203-216). Republican leadership canceled an afternoon vote series following the revolt. This rebellion resulted in thirteen Republicans joining Democrats to vote against the rule for a set of unrelated bills, preventing the House from debating and voting on those measures. Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), the vice chair of the House GOP conference, changed his vote to oppose the rule just before the vote closed, allowing for the possibility of another vote on the rule in the future.

The conservatives’ opposition comes in response to Johnson’s recent deal on spending levels for the remainder of fiscal year 2024, which they believe does not cut spending enough. Congress faces upcoming shutdown deadlines on Jan. 19 and Feb. 2.

Johnson’s agreement is largely in line with spending caps established in a debt limit deal made by then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) with President Biden last year. It includes a $1.59 trillion overall spending limit, along with approximately $69 billion in adjustments to increase nondefense spending for most of fiscal year 2024. The deal also features an extra $10 billion in cuts to mandatory funding for the IRS and a $6.1 billion retrieval of unspent Covid-19 funds.

Conservative members of the House Freedom Caucus expressed their discontent with the deal, calling it a “total failure.” Notable Republican representatives who opposed the procedural vote include Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Bob Good (Va.), Chip Roy (Texas), Ralph Norman (S.C.), Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Scott Perry (Pa.), Eric Burlison (Mo.), and Andy Ogles (Tenn.).

Johnson said Republicans should try to notch incremental policy victories given the governing situation in D.C. “As we used to say in football, this is yard by yard, inch by inch, three yards and a cloud of dust. We have to play and advance the ball incrementally up the field. I wish it was a Hail Mary playtime but it’s not.” Johnson said Republicans should be the “adults in the room and govern.” Johnson said he doesn’t think he’s “in any jeopardy of being vacated.”

Of note: Johnson spoke to President Joe Biden Wednesday and said that he believes the president “understands the magnitude of the crisis [at the U.S.-Mexico border] or he’s beginning to.” Johnson urged Biden to take unilateral action to begin to secure the border.

— Schumer sets up stopgap funding bill to avoid shutdown, Johnson faces GOP division. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is expected to initiate the process today to set up a stopgap funding bill to avoid a partial gov’t shutdown after Jan. 19 and a potential full shutdown two weeks later. This involves filing cloture on an underlying legislative vehicle that would eventually be replaced with a continuing resolution (CR) to keep federal agencies open. The duration of the new CR is uncertain, but reports note it may extend funding to late February or early March.

As noted previously, Johnson faces pressure from House Freedom Caucus members who want a year-long CR, which could lead to cuts in domestic programs and a freeze on the Pentagon budget. But this doesn’t have widespread support and could lead to a gov’t shutdown.

What about the recent mantra, “Shut down the border, or shut down the government.” That apparently is not supported by Speaker Johnson and a bevy of lawmakers from both political parties. But House Republicans are now using the leverage of major changes to border policy before it will agree to more aid for Ukraine and Israel. But the GOP-pushed border policy measures are roundly opposed by Democrats and the White House. Enough Republicans apparently do not want additional aid for Ukraine and see this as a maneuver to block additional aid.

— Senate considers expediting migrant work permits amid border negotiation. In Senate border negotiations, there is consideration of expediting the processing of work permits for migrants granted asylum. This potential border deal includes work permit expansions, and this idea has gained traction due to the migrant crisis affecting leaders across the country and straining city budgets. In November, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) proposed the inclusion of work visas to help address labor shortages by allowing migrants to work legally in the U.S. Currently, migrants must wait 150 days after applying for asylum before they can seek a work permit application, which itself takes at least 30 days for approval, making the entire process quite lengthy.

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

— International Court of Justice, the UN’s highest judicial body, will begin hearings this week in a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. Israel has categorically rejected the allegations.

— Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip “will not be returned alive” unless Israeli forces leave, a Hamas spokesman said.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— With additional U.S. aid in doubt, European leaders face the prospect of having to fill the gap to maintain support for Ukraine in the war against Russia. Link to more via the New York Times.

— Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria have all reached agreement on a plan to clean mines floating in the Black Sea, with a memorandum of understanding signed between the three nations in Istanbul. Three ships from each country that hunt mines and one command control ship will be assigned to the effort.

CHINA UPDATE

— Chinese commodities exchanges are ending the rebates paid on some automated trades as authorities seek to reduce volatility in markets. Three commodity bourses will no longer give refunds this year to brokers on some of the program trades executed by their customers, according to notices from the exchanges viewed by Bloomberg (link). Market participants said they expect an impact on high-frequency trading, which is conducted mainly by foreign investors.

— Wheat, sorghum and cotton biggest sales to China in most recent week. Activity for U.S. export sales to China the week ended Jan. 4 included net sales of 137,180 metric tons of wheat, 132,978 metric tons of sorghum, 81,855 metric tons of soybeans, and 117,862 running bales of upland cotton. Activity for 2024 included net sales of 2,259 metric tons of beef and 323 metric tons of pork. The conclusion of 2023 activity saw net sales of 27 metric tons of beef, bringing total commitments to 140,902 metric tons with 10,681 metric tons of outstanding sales. For pork, the conclusion of 2023 saw net reductions of 139 metric tons, putting total commitments at 209,966 metric tons with 5,326 metric tons of outstanding sales.

TRADE POLICY

— China dethroned as top U.S. exporter by Mexico amid supply chain shifts. China, the long-standing top exporter to the U.S. since 2006, likely lost its position to Mexico in the past year. This shift in rankings is a consequence of changing dynamics and tensions between the two largest economies, reshaping global supply chains. Of note:

U.S. imports from China decreased by over 20% during the January-November period of the previous year, as per U.S. Commerce Department data. This drop reduced China’s share of total U.S. imports to 13.9%, the lowest since 2004, down from its peak of over 21% around 2017. U.S. exports to China remained relatively stable.
Mexico is poised to become the top exporter to the U.S. for the entire year, a position it hasn’t held since 2000. Imports from Mexico are expected to reach a record high in 2023, constituting over 15% of the total for the first 11 months of the year.
Imports from the European Union also reached a record high during this period. Despite a slight dip in shipments from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), their share of total U.S. imports has doubled over the past decade.
Japan’s share of U.S. imports remains below 5%, despite the value of its shipments increasing due to the strengthening of the dollar. Japan’s share has declined significantly since 2000 as Japanese manufacturers increased U.S. production.
The U.S. is diversifying its suppliers for products like consumer electronics, reducing its reliance on China. For example, smartphone imports from China dropped about 10%, while imports from India increased fivefold. Laptop imports from China decreased by roughly 30%, but those from Vietnam quadrupled.
The Biden administration is promoting “friendshoring,” which involves keeping supply chains within allies and partner countries. Tariffs on Chinese products, initiated by the previous administration, are being maintained.
The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about the impact of reduced U.S./China trade on inflation, with some analysts suggesting that domestic production of previously cheap Chinese goods could lead to higher prices by tightening the labor market.
Chinese companies are adjusting their business strategies in response, with some investing more in Mexico and setting up production facilities in North America.
China is also working to reduce its dependence on U.S. exports by promoting the use of the yuan in international transactions with other countries, such as Russia, the Middle East, and South America. Chinese exports to Russia notably increased in 2023.
China’s auto exports grew by about 60% during the same period, primarily comprising gasoline-fueled vehicles sold at lower prices in the Middle East and Africa to address weak domestic demand.

— Global trade drops 1.3% on Red Sea attacks. Global trade declined 1.3% from November to December 2023 as militant attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea led to a plunge in the volumes of cargo transported in that key region, German economic institute IfW Kiel said. Currently around 200,000 containers are being transported via the Red Sea daily, down from some 500,000 per day in November. IfW Kiel’s trade indicator for December showed European Union exports and imports down 2% and 3.1%, respectively. The U.S. saw a 1.5% drop in exports and a 1% decline in imports.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— Yellen praises surging clean energy tax break uptake despite budget concerns. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed her support for the higher-than-anticipated utilization of tax breaks offered through President Joe Biden’s clean energy legislation (Inflation Reduction Act/IRA), despite the additional budgetary expenses involved. Yellen argues that the rising cost estimates associated with tax incentives provided by the IRA signify the legislation’s significant impact and effectiveness. The IRA, passed in 2022, aims to stimulate the production and adoption of clean energy products, such as electric vehicles, primarily through uncapped tax incentives.

Facts and figures. While the Congressional Budget Office initially estimated a reduction in deficits of approximately $238 billion over a decade due to the law, the Brookings Institution has projected that the actual cost of incentives could increase to around $1 trillion over the same period, mainly because of higher-than-expected participation. Yellen said her department is in the process of conducting a formal reassessment of the law’s impact, although she did not provide specific details or a timeline for when this assessment would be completed.

— Japan challenges China’s solar dominance with ultrathin film. Japan is aiming to challenge China’s dominant position in the global solar-energy market by developing and promoting a new type of solar cell technology called perovskite solar cells, the Wall Street Journal reports (link).

China currently controls over 80% of the global supply chain for traditional silicon solar panels, making it a dominant player in the renewable energy industry. Japan is investing in perovskite solar cells, which do not rely on silicon, to reduce its dependence on Chinese supplies and create a domestic solar solution. Perovskite solar cells, developed by Japanese scientist Tsutomu Miyasaka, use minerals to convert sunlight into electricity. Initially, they were less efficient than silicon cells and prone to degradation in humid conditions. To overcome these limitations, perovskite cells were used in conjunction with traditional silicon panels in tandem cells. However, recent advances have allowed perovskite-only cells to match or surpass silicon cells in terms of efficiency.

Perovskite cells are lightweight, flexible, and only one micron thick, making them suitable for installation on walls, curved surfaces, and even indoors, offering versatility in deployment.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida aims to make perovskite technology commercially viable within two years, given the country’s reliance on energy imports.

Of note: Perovskite cells are expected to have a cost advantage over silicon cells because they do not require the energy-intensive heating process used in silicon cell production. A key element in manufacturing perovskite is iodine. Japan is the world’s second-largest producer of iodine after Chile, accounting for around a third of global production.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Chris Christie ends his unlikely bid for the presidency, suspending his campaign late Wednesday afternoon. “It’s clear to me tonight that there isn’t a path for me to win the nomination,” he said in remarks in New Hampshire. “I want to promise you this, I am going to make sure that in no way do I enable Donald Trump to ever be president of the United States again.”

This decision could potentially benefit Nikki Haley’s prospects in New Hampshire. Christie, the former New Jersey governor and a prominent critic of the frontrunner, Donald Trump, had concentrated his campaign efforts on the first primary state. However, his chances dwindled as Haley gained momentum in polls following impressive debate showings and the endorsement of popular GOP Governor Chris Sununu, who also opposes Trump.

Christie didn’t endorse Haley, and he even took a shot at her in a comment caught on a microphone when he was speaking privately. She’ll be “smoked,” he said. Haley is far outpacing Gov. Ron DeSantis in New Hampshire, and she is the former Governor of the next big state with a primary contest, South Carolina.

Of note: While Christie fared poorly in Iowa polling, with an average of 3.4% on RealClearPolling (RCP), it appeared he was best poised to drum up long-shot momentum in New Hampshire, where he is the only candidate outside of Trump and Haley in double digits in the RCP average with 12%.

Bottom line: Independent voters and even Democrats are allowed to vote in the GOP primary in New Hampshire. A CNN poll this week showed Haley moving to within single digits of Trump in New Hampshire. If most of the Christie voters go to Haley, that would significantly tighten the race.

— Former President Donald Trump revealed Wednesday that he’s already settled on a running mate for his 2024 general election campaign if he were to win the Republican nomination for president. Trump, however, refused to say who it is when asked during a televised town hall in Des Moines, Iowa. “Well, I can’t tell you that really,” Trump, 77, told Fox News hosts Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, the event moderators. “I mean, I know who it’s going to be,” he added.

— DeSantis and Haley clash in heated 2024 GOP debate. During Wednesday’s debate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley engaged in sharp exchanges as they both vie for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential election. Key points:

DeSantis criticized Haley, labeling her as a “mealy-mouth politician” and insinuated that she was inspired by Democrat Hillary Clinton to enter politics. Haley retaliated by calling DeSantis a “serial liar” and suggested that his campaign was faltering.
Haley made light of the debate’s campus setting and cautioned viewers not to turn DeSantis’s alleged falsehoods into a drinking game. She encouraged viewers to visit a campaign website, desantislies.com, where they could find a catalog of what she claimed were DeSantis’s lies.
DeSantis suggested that Haley might be more liberal than California Governor Gavin Newsom, known for his progressive views. He criticized Haley for her recent comment about New Hampshire voters “correcting” the outcome of Iowa and accused her of being beholden to wealthy donors, while portraying her as an establishment figure.
DeSantis emphasized the need for a strong leader in the White House and questioned Haley’s qualifications and claims of fiscal discipline. He portrayed her as an insider representing “warmed-over corporatism.”
Immigration was a contentious topic, with DeSantis accusing Haley of having a soft stance on the issue and pledging to eliminate amnesty. Haley defended her position, emphasizing the need for comprehensive immigration measures beyond building a wall. Haley also advocated for the deportation of undocumented immigrants, arguing that they were cutting the line.

— The case for Trump… by someone who wants him to lose. That is the title of an opinion item (link) in the New York Times written by Bret Stephens, an Opinion columnist for the NYT.

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

— IMF agrees to disburse $4.7billion to Argentina despite the country’s failure to meet the terms of its $43 billion loan in recent months, offering a crucial lifeline to new libertarian President Javier Milei as he pursues major reforms. The money includes a $3.3 billion tranche of the loan that had been due to be disbursed in November, which was delayed by Milei’s inauguration in December, and $1.4 billion that the IMF agreed to disburse ahead of schedule. The decision by the fund’s technical staff on Wednesday must be reviewed by its board, which will take several weeks.

Fund officials who visited Argentina this week said in a statement on Wednesday that Milei’s team had “moved quickly and decisively to develop and begin to implement a strong policy package to restore macroeconomic stability and are fully determined to bring the current program back on track.” Milei’s spokesperson said on Monday that he was not seeking new funds from the IMF, which is deeply unpopular in Argentina.

KEY LINKS

Policy Updates