Consensus: Putin Survived Mutiny, Is Damaged Goods, But Putin Mulling Options

Vilsack again taps CCC, this time for $2.7 billion; House Republicans watching closely

Russian roulette. Over the weekend, a failed mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group in Russia raised concerns about the future of the Kremlin’s involvement in Ukraine. The Wagner Group had an armored convoy near Moscow and seized control of Rostov-on-Don, before turning against the Russian army, downing six helicopters and a command-center plane. To end the crisis, an agreement was reached where the 25,000 Wagner troops would not be prosecuted and Prigozhin would be exiled to Belarus. However, Prigozhin’s stay in Belarus may be temporary as he threatened to march on Moscow with a “March of Justice.”

“I don’t think we’ve seen the final act,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared. “We’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian facade. It is too soon to tell exactly where they go, and when they get there, but certainly, we have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead. Our focus is resolutely and relentlessly on Ukraine, making sure that it has what it needs to defend itself and to take back territory that Russia seized.”

The uprising has weakened Putin, but what will he do next? Bill Browder, a former investor in Russia who has become one of Putin’s biggest critics, told the New York Times’ DealBook that the president would look to reassert his authority by whatever means necessary. “Unless he can show he’s so brutal that everyone needs to deal with him, this is the beginning of the end. Recovery will require a huge crackdown,” he said. Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told DealBook that Putin may be far from finished. “This might be another demonstration of dysfunctionality, but he’s very good at finding a way to adapt and survive. His major talent is staying in power.” More in Russia & Ukraine section.

The Supreme Court on Tuesday is set to hand down key decisions...on student debt relief, affirmative action, and federal election laws as it enters the last week of its summer session with 10 cases pending. In addition, the court is forming its docket for the next term. The justices today could announce whether they will take up several high-profile cases, including on guns, racial discrimination and qualified immunity.

China’s currency hits a seven-month low against the dollar. The renminbi is facing continued pressure from China’s slowing economy, including declining consumer spending. A cheaper renminbi will help Chinese exporters by making their goods less costly abroad, but domestic businesses are likely to suffer. More in China section.

USDA Secretary Vilsack is in Minnesota on biofuels. During a trip to the Minneapolis area, Vilsack is to announce “significant new funding” to expand the availability of biofuels across the country.

USDA Vilsack on Friday tapped another $2.7 billion from the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) towards several initiatives. House Republicans are taking a close look at Vilsack’s tapping of what is called “USDA’s ATM machine.” More in Policy section.

The number of Americans working into their 80s is on the rise, with approximately 650,000 people over 80 employed last year, an 18% increase compared to a decade earlier.

EPA issued a proposal to protect 27 endangered and threatened species, including certain pollinators.

Western banks fear that growing tensions between Washington and Beijing may prevent them from working on the Shanghai IPO of Syngenta.

A key topic in recent Blinken’s meetings in China: Taiwan presidential election. More in China section.

The Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline has managed to secure all the necessary permits to resume construction.

Last Thursday, the state of California released a court order that modifies the California Proposition 12 implementation. NPPC on Friday said that “Contrary to some reporting, this is not a delay of all of Proposition 12, rather it is an adjustment related to the sale of whole pork meat.” More in Livestock section.

Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss) are preparing to introduce a bill to support farmers during avian flu outbreaks, Politico reports.

An NBC News poll published Sunday shows that President Biden led Republican front-runner Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 election rematch at 49% support to 45%, though his edge is within the survey’s margin of error.

The centrist political group No Labels is pushing for Senator Joe Manchin, Democrat of West Virginia, to run for president on a third-party bid.

Hundreds of thousands are without power across the Southeast and Ohio Valley after intense tornado-triggered storms. Additionally, a recent analysis indicates that extreme floods are occurring much more frequently than previously thought, which could significantly impact infrastructure development and the cost of flood insurance.

If you need new or renewed passports to travel abroad, it may take a lot of time. Details below.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. Dow opened virtually unchanged and is up around 40 points at this writing. In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong -0.5%. China -1.5%. India flat. In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt -0.1%.

U.S. equities Friday: All three major indices suffered losses for the week, with the Dow down 1.7%, the Nasdaq was down 1.4% and the S&P 500 lost 1.4%. On Friday, the Dow ended down 219.28 points, 0.65%, at 33,727.43. The Nasdaq fell 138.09 points, 1.01%, at 13,492.52. The S&P 500 lost 33.56 points, 0.77%, at 4,348.33.

The U.S. will sell $65 billion 13-week and $58 billion 26-week bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and another $42 billion 2-year notes at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: July corn futures plunged 29 3/4 cents to close at $6.30 3/4, marking a 9 1/2 cent loss on the week. December futures led the complex lower, losing 32 3/4 cents on the day before settling at $5.88, near the session low and marked a 9 1/2 cent loss on the week.
• Soy complex: July soybeans fell 6 cents to $14.94 1/2, notching a high-range close and up 28 cents on the week, while November soybeans fell 29 1/2 cents to $13.10, losing 32 1/4 cents for the week. July meal fell $14.00 to $410.70, down $5.70 week-over-week, while July soyoil rallied 217 points to 57.94 cents, but is down 175 points on the week.
• Wheat: December SRW wheat fell 8 3/4 cents to $7.61 3/4, near mid-range and for the week gained 46 cents. December HRW wheat dropped 10 1/4 cents to $8.63, near mid-range and for the week up 26 cents. December spring wheat fell 8 1/4 cents to $8.80 1/4, a 20-cent loss for the week.
• Cotton: December cotton fell 148 points to 78.67, marking the lowest close since May 25 and a 143-point loss on the week.
• Cattle: Cattle futures ended the week on a mixed note, with the expiring June contract dipping 15 cents to $177.50 and most-active August sagging 37.5 cents to $170.775. The closing price represented a weekly drop of 95 cents. In contrast, tumbling grain prices triggered a commensurate jump in feeder futures; the August contract ended the week at $233.95, up $3.275 on the day, but down 97.5 cents on the week.
• Hogs: August lean hog futures fell 30 cents to $89.675 and near mid-range. For the week, August hogs lost $1.00.
  

Ag markets today: Wheat futures posted strong gains overnight amid global supply concerns given the political instability in Russia. Soybeans have firmed this morning while corn is mixed. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher, soybeans were 4 to 8 cents higher, winter wheat futures were 16 to 19 cents higher and spring wheat was 11 to 13 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly firmer, and the U.S. dollar index was around 150 points lower this morning.

Market quotes of note:

• ″Oil is irreplaceable for the foreseeable future,” Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said while addressing the inaugural Energy Asia conference held in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur. “In our worldwide outlook, we see global oil demand rising to 110 million barrels a day by 2045,” he said, adding that oil will still comprise about 29% of the energy mix by then.
  
• “The risk of further civil unrest in Russia now must be factored into our oil analysis for the back half of the year,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in an investor note this morning. Rising commodity prices could put further pressure on central banks already struggling to rein in inflation.
  
• “I’m not going to use the word ‘ESG’ because it’s been misused by the far left and the far right.” — Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock. At the Aspen Ideas Festival, Fink — a longtime advocate for factoring environmental and social concerns into investment decisions — said the common term for that strategy had become too politicized. (He reiterated that he hadn’t abandoned the precepts of ESG investing themselves.)
  

On tap today:

• Vilsack in Minnesota on biofuels. During a trip to the Minneapolis area, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack is to announce “significant new funding” to expand the availability of biofuels across the country.
• House Agriculture chairman G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, take part in a farm bill listening session, 3 p.m. ET, Lebanon, Tennessee. The listening session is part of a two-day tour of farms and agricultural businesses in middle Tennessee that concludes on Tuesday.

Traders are finally conceding that the Fed is laser-focused on inflation and less worried about rates breaking the economy. Almost half of market participants in a Bloomberg survey expect at least two more rate hikes. That’s a remarkable shift for a market that was pricing in cuts in 2023 as recently as this month. A soft landing now appears elusive, though the U.S. may be stuck in a pre-recession limbo for the rest of the year. That’s probably why many investors see fixed-income outperforming commodities and stocks.

Households with student loans face two major developments this summer. First is the possibility that the debt forgiveness plan will be struck down by the Supreme Court, perhaps tomorrow. The second is the coming expiration of a payment moratorium that has allowed debts to go unpaid for more than three years.

In a bid to combat “greedflation,” British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt is scheduled to meet with regulators this week to discuss strategies for curbing excessive price hikes by companies. This marks a shift in the government’s approach, which had previously been more lenient towards reported profiteering. The move comes amidst ongoing high inflation in Britain.

The number of Americans working into their 80s is on the rise, with approximately 650,000 people over 80 employed last year, an 18% increase compared to a decade earlier. Factors such as inflation and stock-market volatility have pushed some individuals back into the workforce, while the easing pandemic has allowed others to return after a break. However, many choose to keep working simply because they enjoy it.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker, with the euro managing slight gains against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has eased to trade around 3.71%, with a lower tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures are higher, with U.S. crude around $69.70 per barrel and Brent around $74.60 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were higher ahead of US trading, with gold around $1,941 per troy ounce and silver around $22.90 per troy ounce.

• OPEC predicts that global oil demand will grow to 110 million barrels per day by 2045, a 23% increase in overall energy demand. Although recognizing the rising importance of renewable power, OPEC maintains that oil will remain a crucial part of the world’s energy mix. They also raised concerns about underinvestment in the oil industry, warning that it could threaten the stability of current energy systems and lead to “energy chaos.” This outlook contrasts with that of the IEA, which anticipates oil demand growth slowing down in the coming years.

• Indonesia will increase its mandatory palm oil biodiesel blend to 40% in the coming years, as revealed by Energy Minister Arifin Tasrif to Reuters. For now, the blend will remain at 35%. The move is part of the government’s push to use more domestic resources and reduce reliance on imported crude oil. Research and road tests for the B40 blend have already been completed, and full implementation of the current B35 mandate is anticipated by August.

• Peach crop heavily damaged. A warm winter followed by March freezes wreaked havoc with this year’s peach crop in Georgia, with some experts saying the harvest may be only 5 percent of normal. Link to more via the Washington Post.

• NWS weather outlook: There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic... ...Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over the Southwest, southern Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi... ...Air Quality alerts over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Wheat strengthens amid Russia uncertainty
• Weekend rains help some areas, others remain dry
• Indonesia plans to hike biodiesel mandate in coming years
• Feedlot supplies continue to tighten
• Cash hog index picking up steam

— In a historic threat to Putin’s absolute power in Russia, an armed mutiny led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was defused in Moscow. The uprising has damaged Putin’s image of political control, with insiders expressing surprise over his disregard for previous warnings about Prigozhin’s plans. The 24-hour uprising and the murky deal that allowed Prigozhin and his forces to leave without consequences may not mark the end of these tensions. A European intelligence assessment suggests both Putin and Russia will emerge weakened from the crisis, viewing it as Putin’s personal failing. While Ukraine takes advantage of the chaos, tensions within Russian elite are rising as rival camps emerge.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the U.S. had contact with Russian officials about the safety of U.S. personnel and citizens in the region, and that U.S. intelligence hasn’t seen any change in Russia’s nuclear posture amid the crisis.

Upshot: Focus now is on the officials who Prigozhin publicly sought to oust — Putin’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the chief of the general staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. Shoigu was seen for the first time since the aborted Wagner uprising. In a video released by Russia’s defense ministry, Shoigu appeared to be visiting troops, although it is not clear when or where the footage was taken. A video of Putin addressing a youth group was released, but no timeline for this video is available. Meanwhile Russian state media reported that Prigozhin is still facing criminal charges, despite the Kremlin’s earlier assurances that these would be dropped.

Link to the last of three special reports we filed on this topic during the weekend.

— Following the Wagner Group’s attempted coup in Russia, U.K. officials fear President Vladimir Putin could feel threatened and retaliate with extensive purges or potentially lead to a collapsing Russia. Alicia Kearns, chairman of the U.K.'s foreign affairs select committee, described the situation as a “dangerous inflection point.” Despite Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s agreement to take amnesty in Belarus, Kearns believes the situation is far from resolved. The revolt raises concerns about Russia’s stability, and the U.K. government is advised to prepare for various scenarios. A potential Prigozhin-led overthrow of Putin is seen as the “worst-case scenario” by some experts.

— Ukraine claims it has made inroads against Russian forces around Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. President Biden on Sunday spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about Ukraine’s ongoing counter-offensive and recent events in Russia, according to a White House readout of the call. The U.S. and Ukrainian presidents discussed support for Ukraine, and the country’s offensive to retake Russian-occupied areas. Biden reportedly reaffirmed unwavering U.S. support, including through continued security, economic, and humanitarian aid. Zelenskyy tweeted they discussed “further expansion of defense cooperation, with an emphasis on long-range weapons,” as well as Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.”

— The U.S. Treasury Dept. identifies the Wagner Group, Prigozhin’s private mercenary operation, as a brutal transnational criminal organization. Linked to the company Evro Polis, which received energy concessions in return for military assistance in Syria, Wagner has also been involved in mining operations in Sudan and the Central African Republic to finance its endeavors. To avoid sanctions and hide financial details, the group often asks for payments in valuable resources like gold, diamonds, and oil and gas. Between 2018 and 2021, Wagner’s resource-based revenues were estimated at around $250 million.

A global network of corporate lawyers helps Prigozhin, who is connected to Wagner, fend off Western authorities. The Treasury has pointed out three specific business partners supporting Wagner’s activities in Ukraine, which include two Russian companies, Terra Tech and AO BARL, as well as China-based Spacety, which supplies satellite imagery to the group.

— U.N. warns of impacts if Black Sea grain deal ends. An end to the Black Sea grains deal would hit the Horn of Africa hard, aid officials said on Monday, warning that another hike in food prices would add to hunger in the region. “A non-renewal of the Black Sea initiative would absolutely hit Eastern Africa very, very hard,” Dominique Ferretti, World Food Program Senior Emergency Officer, told a Geneva briefing. “There’s a number of countries that depend on Ukraine’s wheat and without it we would see significantly higher food prices.”

— USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack tapped another $2.7 billion from the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) towards several initiatives. This includes using nearly $1.3 billion for states to purchase food to be distributed in school feeding programs, almost $1 billion for states to order commodities from USDA vendors for emergency food providers, and $400 million to support domestic fertilizer production. USDA has already provided close to $3.8 billion for school meal efforts since December 2021, and this emergency food initiative is in addition to the almost $1 billion provided in September 2022.

Regarding the fertilizer initiative, the funding will be distributed through grants as part of the Fertilizer Product Expansion Program (FPEP). Although $500 million had already been allocated for FPEP, USDA reported that they received applications for $3 billion in funding during the first two application periods. USDA has granted $30 million in the first FPEP round and is now seeking comments on 66 potential projects for the second round of applications.

Of note: The House is expected to vote on the annual USDA-FDA spending bill in early July, which includes a rider that would prevent Vilsack from using CCC funds for non-emergency purposes without congressional approval. This move was largely prompted by the Biden administration’s use of $3.1 billion in CCC funds for the Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities initiative, which aims to encourage eco-friendly practices on working lands and develop markets for climate-conscious products.

Republicans previously restricted the USDA’s power to access the CCC during President Obama’s second term, with Vilsack as Agriculture secretary, but these limitations were removed under President Trump. Vilsack criticized Trump for draining the CCC’s funds, leaving little for commodity supports and conservation payments. However, he assured that the Biden administration is leaving ample funds for these purposes.

Vilsack also noted that Congress was informed in advance about the recent announcement.

— EPA issued a proposal to protect 27 endangered and threatened species, including certain pollinators. This will be done through targeted limits on pesticide use in the habitats of these species. The initiative concentrates on species with small populations, limited range, and a high susceptibility to environmental stresses. Some of the species include the rusty patched bumble bee, Poweshiek skipperling butterfly, and Taylor’s checkerspot butterfly. The aim of the proposal is to shield these species from pesticide drift and runoff, ensuring that the mitigation measures are clear for pesticide users.

EPA shared a white paper (link) detailing their proposal and invited public commentary for a period of 45 days. Advocates welcome the approach, saying it focuses on the immediate measures required to protect individual species, and if adopted, it will be a crucial step towards preventing their extinction.

— China has expressed support for Russia and President Vladimir Putin after an insurrection attempt by the Wagner mercenary group momentarily threatened Putin’s rule. Chinese President Xi Jinping maintains a close strategic alliance with Putin against the United States, so instability in Russia is cause for concern in Beijing. Despite this challenge for Russia, official Chinese statements and media coverage stress stability and continued friendship between the two nations. Worries about a weakened Putin, however, remain; on both a geopolitical and ideological level, a strong Russia led by Putin is beneficial for China as it faces increasing pressure from the U.S. and its allies.

— China’s economy is showing more signs of losing momentum. Domestic travel spending during a recent holiday was below pre-Covid levels, home sales have slumped and estimates for June car sales showed a drop. Meanwhile, two more developers failed to meet dollar-bond payments.

— Firm cuts China’s GDP forecast. S&P Global cut its forecast for economic growth in China this year, calling for Beijing to intensify stimulus efforts to boost economic activity. S&P Global now expects China’s economy to grow 5.2% in 2023, down from an earlier estimate of 5.5%. “China’s key downside growth risk is that its recovery loses more steam amid weak confidence among consumers and in the housing market,” S&P said.

— Western banks fear that growing tensions between Washington and Beijing may prevent them from working on the Shanghai IPO of Syngenta, the agricultural chemical giant. Link/paywall to more via the Financial Times.

— A key topic in recent Blinken’s meetings in China: Taiwan presidential election. In recent talks in China between senior Chinese officials and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan emerged as a key topic of discussion. Beijing aimed to gauge Washington’s interest in the race, reflecting Taiwan’s central role in the strained relations between the U.S. and China. While the officials declined to comment, reports say Blinken reiterated the U.S. administration’s stance of maintaining neutrality in the election and discouraging any interference.

— U.S. ag trade issues will take center stage as the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives convenes a Washington policy forum on Tuesday. Chief U.S. Agricultural Trade Negotiator Doug McKalip and USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis Taylor are set to participate. Topics likely to see updates include ongoing trade frictions with Mexico regarding GMO corn and biotechnology, as well as U.S. concerns about Canada’s implementation of dairy tariff rate quotas under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) dispute process.

Both Taylor and McKalip are also expected to defend the Biden administration’s decision not to pursue new free trade agreements (FTAs), which usually address tariffs on agricultural and other goods. The administration’s pursuit of economic framework deals is seen as an alternative to seeking Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) from Congress for FTA negotiation, but agricultural interests remain skeptical about these alternatives offering the same trade benefits.

Meanwhile, tomorrow is the official release date for former U.S. Trade Representative’s Robert Lighthizer’s book, No Fair Trade.

— NIO, one of China’s highly-regarded EV startups, has become a representation of the challenges that automakers confront in the intensely competitive electric vehicle market in China — the largest in the world. The company has experienced a slump in sales recently, which has forced them to take numerous measures, including reducing prices, cutting back on investments, and committing to further cash burn. This situation highlights the intense price wars and difficulties currently faced by many players in the electric vehicle industry.

— The Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline has managed to secure all the necessary permits to resume construction. The final missing piece was a water-crossing permit, which the company obtained from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, as reported by Bloomberg. Senators Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) have praised this decision, signaling that the project can now move forward.

— Grocery stores including Kroger, Walmart and Amazon’s Whole Foods Market have been targeted by scammers attempting extortion through bomb threats. The criminal activity ranges from New Mexico to Wisconsin, with callers demanding ransoms in the form of gift cards, Bitcoin, and money. Although bomb threats used for extortion purposes are uncommon, security and industry experts believe this trend began earlier this year and seems to be picking up steam. Link for more via the Wall Street Journal.

— Private-label goods manufacturers, who produce products ranging from groceries to paper towels, are gradually recovering from setbacks caused during the pandemic and its subsequent recovery phase. Early in the pandemic, there was a shift towards trusted brands due to a lack of availability. This, coupled with complex supply chains and manufacturing processes, led to a detrimental effect on makers of private-label goods. Additionally, multiple government stimulus packages and a tight labor market left consumers feeling flush with cash, enabling them to spend more on name-brand options.

However, recent trends indicate a reversal, as inflation causes consumers to opt for more affordable store-brand products. Private-label manufacturers are also regaining prepandemic efficiency levels, contributing to their resurgence. For example, TreeHouse Foods, which produces private-label snacks and beverages for major retailers, experienced a significant increase in its stock value over the past 12 months.

Data from NielsenIQ reveals that private-label brands are gaining market share, with an 18.7% share in the “center aisle” groceries by unit sales in the 52 weeks through May 27, compared to 17.9% in the same period a year earlier. Household care items experienced a similar increase. Although branded goods manufacturers are not entirely alarmed by the trend, they acknowledge the increasing competition from private-label goods and subsequent constraints on their ability to implement price increases. Link to more via the WSJ.

— USDA on Friday revised its food and grocery store price outlook for 2023, projecting U.S. food prices will see a 6% increase, compared to a 9.9% rise in 2022. Grocery store prices are expected to increase by 5.9%, lower than the 11.4% hike in 2022. Restaurant prices are set to rise by 7.7% in 2023, on par with the 2022 increase.

Notably, pork prices are the only category set to decline, with a 2.1% drop forecasted.

Meanwhile, egg prices are expected to increase by 6.2%, which is significantly lower than the 32.2% rise in 2022.

Other food categories are also projected to have lower increases than seen in 2022.

Despite the lowered outlook, most price increases are still above their 20-year averages, highlighting somewhat elevated levels of food price inflation for the year. This will mark the second year of substantial increases in food prices, which will continue to impact consumers amid broader inflationary pressures.

— Last Thursday, the state of California released a court order that modifies the California Proposition 12 implementation. NPPC on Friday said that “Contrary to some reporting, this is not a delay of all of Proposition 12, rather it is an adjustment related to the sale of whole pork meat. This is an extension of time for the sale of non-compliant whole pork meat, provided that the meat is in the supply chain by July 1. If it is in the supply chain by July 1, that product can be sold in California until December 31. Anything harvested after July 1, to be sold in California, will still have to be Proposition 12 compliant.” As to the significance of the order, NPPC said “California recognized that if something was not done on the implementation of Proposition 12, consumers in the state could potentially face increased food prices and a significant decrease in amount of pork supplied to the state.”

— Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss) are preparing to introduce a bill to support farmers during avian flu outbreaks, Politico reports. Following the record-breaking impact of the 2022 outbreak, which resulted in over 50 million culled birds, the senators aim to expand eligibility for USDA compensation for farmers affected by such outbreaks. The bill, which has bipartisan support, proposes to simplify the compensation process for farmers who lose their flocks due to culling or having to leave poultry barns empty for extended periods.

The measure also has support from more than a dozen state Farm Bureaus and the National Chicken Council, which represents poultry processors. Coons and Wicker plan to incorporate the proposed legislation into the farm bill, aiming to ensure that impacted farmers are fairly compensated and can recover quickly.

— U.S. intelligence report on Covid-19 origins rejects some points raised by lab leak theory proponents. In an intelligence report, U.S. officials rejected some points raised by proponents of the lab leak theory for the origin of Covid-19. The report was issued at the request of Congress, and shows that American spy agencies remain divided over how the pandemic began. Out of four agencies, two still believe that the virus was transferred from animals to humans, while the Department of Energy’s intelligence arm and the FBI lean towards the virus leaking from a lab. The CIA and another agency have not made an assessment yet.

The Wuhan Institute of Virology’s research on bat coronaviruses and reported security lapses put it under scrutiny. While it did genetically engineer viruses, the report states that U.S. intelligence has no information connecting this work to SARS-CoV-2 or a closely related backbone virus. Furthermore, the report says that reports of lab researchers falling ill in fall 2019 are inconclusive.

— Covid vaccine requirements removed for Head Start Program. The U.S. Office of Head Start, part of the Children and Families Administration and Department of Health and Human Services, has removed Covid vaccine requirements for the Head Start Program. With this change, all staff, contractors, and volunteers in contact with or providing direct services to children and families will no longer be required to be fully vaccinated for Covid-19. Additionally, the mandate for weekly Covid-19 testing for those exempt from vaccination has also been lifted.

— Weight-loss pill options on the horizon as drugmakers explore alternatives to injections. Pharmaceutical companies such as Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer are developing weight-loss medications in pill form to attract a larger market and provide a more affordable option for those averse to needles. Although the chemistry involved is complex, success could lead to significant cost reductions compared to currently popular injectable drugs like Ozempic.

The Ozempic craze has captured the national imagination, along with that of Wall Street. Shares of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have each more than doubled in the past three years and the two companies are now the top two largest pure-play pharmaceutical companies in the world. Eli Lilly now trades at 44 times forward earnings.

— In the recent Greek elections, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis secured another four-year term, as his center-right New Democracy party celebrated a decisive victory. The election focused on financial stability and cost-of-living matters, and Mitsotakis successfully positioned himself as a leader capable of fostering growth during challenging global circumstances. His administration, known for its impressive economic turnaround, has brought Greece to the verge of reattaining investment grade status for the first time since 2010. While authorities faced criticism over their handling of a migrant boat disaster, it did not negatively impact Mitsotakis’ lead in the vote.

— Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 rematch, an NBC News poll shows, though his edge is within the survey’s margin of error. Trump’s support among GOP voters in the June 16-20 poll increased to 51% from 46% in April.

— The Republican National Committee (RNC) loyalty pledge, requiring 2024 candidates to support the eventual nominee in order to participate in the first debate, is facing increasing opposition from potential candidates like Will Hurd, Chris Christie, and Ron DeSantis. This opposition stems from the Republican Party’s internal conflicts and a reluctance to back former President Trump if he becomes the nominee, particularly considering the recent criminal indictment regarding his handling of classified documents. Despite the growing list of detractors, the RNC remains steadfast in enforcing the loyalty pledge as a debate requirement.

— The centrist political group No Labels is pushing for Senator Joe Manchin, Democrat of West Virginia, to run for president on a third-party bid — but isn’t saying who’s funding the effort. Link to more via Politico.

— If you need new or renewed passports to travel abroad, it may take a lot of time. More Americans in recent months have had to cancel trips because some of their passports could not be processed in time. In-person options to get renewals, something many used in the past, is restricted, with some sources saying the only available in-person was in Hawaii. The Covid-19 pandemic and unprecedented demand for passports have led to extended waiting times for passport applications and renewals. It now takes 10-13 weeks according to the State Department, although travelers and passport experts claim it can take 15-18 weeks with mailing times. To address this, various strategies can help bypass the passport backlog, such as courier services, expedited passports, contacting your congressional representative, booking a refundable flight ticket, or renewing your passport outside the U.S. at an embassy. However, officials say to be cautious about “black market” courier services that may exploit desperate travelers.

— The Supreme Court is expected to deliver decisions on two major cases, potentially as early as Tuesday. First, they will rule on President Biden’s plan to forgive up to $20,000 in student debt per borrower, which could impact 40 million Americans and influence household budgeting, financial planning, and consumer spending. Secondly, they will determine the legality of colleges considering race in admissions decisions, which could significantly affect longstanding affirmative action policies and the racial composition of university student bodies.

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Russia/Ukraine war timeline | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | New farm bill primer | China outlook | Omnibus spending package | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA ag outlook forum | Debt-limit/budget package |