The Week Ahead: Nov. 10, 2024
— Monday, Nov. 11, is a U.S. gov’t holiday. Most markets, however, will trade normal hours. The exception is the bond market which will be closed on Monday, based on the recommendation from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA). The Monday holiday will push back one day some of the weekly updates from USDA, including the Crop Progress and Export Inspections reports which will be released Tuesday and the weekly Export Sales report which will be released Friday. Ditto for some weekly energy reports — see calendar below. — Donald Trump wins Arizona, returning the state and its 11 electoral votes to Republicans and completing sweep of swing states. Joe Biden won the state in 2020. With the final state called in the presidential election, Trump won 312 electoral votes and Kamala Harris won 226 electoral votes. Arizona is home to the fourth largest population of Hispanic voters, a demographic the former president made gains with in 2024, according to polling.
— Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is projected to beat Republican Kari Lake in a consequential race for Arizona Senate, dealing the former local news anchor her second straight electoral loss, according to Decision Desk HQ. Gallego’s victory contributes to a 53-47 Republican majority in the Senate. — Trump wins Nevada, Democrat Rosen retains Senate seat amid split-ticket voting. President-elect Donald Trump secured Nevada, flipping the state after a 2020 loss. With almost all of the Nevada votes reported, Trump had 50.7% to 47.4% for Harris. Despite his win, Nevada voters re-elected Democratic Sen, ¢ Jacky Rosen, who defeated GOP challenger Sam Brown (47.% to 46.4%) with a focus on local issues and abortion rights. Nevada’s ballot also passed a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights up to 24 weeks. — Republican David McCormick was declared the winner in Pa. over Democratic incumbent Bob Casey by several major news outlets, including the Associated Press. However, the race remains very close and some organizations like NBC News have not yet called it. McCormick currently leads Casey by approximately 31,000 votes, with about 97% of votes counted. The margin is around half a percentage point, which qualifies the race for an automatic recount under Pennsylvania law. McCormick has declared victory, while Casey has not yet conceded and says all votes need to be counted. McCormick performed better than expected in Philadelphia and its suburbs, cutting into Casey’s support in those traditionally Democratic areas. If McCormick’s victory holds, it would expand the Republican Senate majority to 53 seats in the next Congress. The race was one of the most expensive and closely watched Senate contests in the country this cycle. — The GOP is getting closer to 218 seats needed to control the House of Representatives. Republicans have secured 216 as of Saturday night, according to Decision Desk HQ, and the Democrats trail with 209 seats. A total of 10 races have not yet been called. Of those 10, Democrats are leading in two while Republican candidates are ahead in the other eight, according to The Hill. If the current margins hold once all votes are counted, Republicans could net 11 more seats, for a total of 224. Democrats could add 9 seats, for a total of 211 as the new Congress is sworn in next year. The current House of Representatives has 220 Republican seats, 212 Democratic, and three vacancies. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La. ) announced his plans to remain as the speaker while saying that he expects the House to still be controlled by the GOP. Control of the House means the chairmanship of every committee, subpoena power, and the choice of what and whom to investigate. — Pelosi criticizes Biden’s timing in 2024 race, suggests it hindered Harris’ chances. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) expressed regret over President Biden’s late decision to pursue a second term, suggesting it limited opportunities for other Democratic candidates, including Kamala Harris, to compete in a primary. In comments to the New York Times (link), Pelosi indicated Harris might have strengthened her position with an earlier primary challenge, but Biden’s swift endorsement effectively blocked such a possibility. Pelosi reflected on the situation as part of processing the vice president’s electoral loss. Pelosi praised Biden’s decision not to run as “patriotic” and “selfless,” suggesting it improved Democrats’ chances in House races. Despite evidence of working-class voters shifting right, Pelosi firmly asserted that Democrats remain “the kitchen table, working-class party of America.” She dismissed Bernie Sanders’ criticisms that Democrats have abandoned working families, arguing his perspective “is not correct” and that his message is not resonating with voters. Pelosi attributed part of Republican success to cultural wedge issues, summarizing it as “guns, God and gays.” She highlighted how Republicans have prioritized transgender issues and framed abortion rights as a religious matter in certain communities. Rather than addressing immigration policy, Pelosi focused on messaging. She criticized Trump’s rhetoric about immigrants as turning it into a cultural issue. Pelosi admitted Democrats could have been clearer in communicating that fewer immigrants entered under Biden compared to Trump. Despite losing the White House and Senate, Pelosi resisted characterizing the election as a rejection of Democrats. She emphasized the possibility of retaining House control and noted that many Democratic House candidates outperformed the presidential ticket in their districts. — Donald Trump became the first Republican in 20 years to win the national popular vote and the Electoral College totaling 312. His victory makes the 78-year-old Trump the oldest person elected president and only the second to win nonconsecutive terms. (Grover Cleveland accomplished the feat in the 1892 election.) — Los Angeles Times on Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris: “The former president defeated Vice President Kamala Harris by harnessing the abiding dissatisfaction of many Americans — uneasy about the high cost of living, unsettled about a southern border they view as insecure and disturbed over an evolving culture they feel has strayed too far from traditional values.” Trump’s closing argument was “basic and it worked: The country is broken. I’m a builder. I will fix it,” a senior Trump campaign advisor told the LAT. “The economy is better under Trump. Illegal immigration will stop under Trump. You will have more of your money in your pocket under Trump. And also, with Trump, we will prevent boys from playing girls’ sports.” — Why polls keep underestimating Trump: mixed-method polling provides clarity. Pollsters have consistently underestimated Donald Trump’s performance, missing his vote share three times since 2016. While traditional phone and online polling methods have faltered, J.L. Partners accurately predicted Trump’s 2024 victory using a mixed-methods approach. Combining phone calls, text messages, online, and in-app polling helped capture hard-to-reach Trump supporters, including nonwhite and low-propensity voters. The firm found that Trump’s unique appeal, social desirability biases, and voter distrust of traditional polls contributed to previous inaccuracies. To fix polling, experts recommend reaching voters on their own terms with modern communication methods and in-depth interviews. For more, link to a WSJ opinion item from Tom Lubbock and James Johnson, co-founders of J.L. Partners, a polling firm. Link to another perspective on pollsters via The Hill. — Post-election questions arise, including: — Donald Trump’s newly appointed White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, is the daughter of Pat Summerall, the legendary NFL player and sportscaster. Pat Summerall was a well-known figure in the sports world, particularly for his work as an NFL broadcaster. He was best known for teaming up with John Madden in broadcast booths at CBS and Fox from the 1980s to the early 2000s. Susie Wiles, who has been named as the first woman to serve as White House chief of staff, has had a long career in politics that diverged from her father’s path in sports broadcasting. Her political career dates back to the late 1970s, including work on Ronald Reagan’s 1980 presidential campaign. — Trump shuts out Pompeo, Haley from future Cabinet roles. President-elect Donald Trump announced that former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley will not return to his administration, signaling a firm stance against interventionist GOP factions. Trump’s post on Truth Social ended speculation about their potential appointments, emphasizing his appreciation for their past service but clarifying their exclusion. Haley, a 2024 primary challenger to Trump, and Pompeo, who considered a presidential bid and criticized Trump in 2023, have faced MAGA-aligned pushback for perceived deviations from Trump’s “America First” agenda. — Trump reportedly offers Rep. Elise Stefanik UN Ambassador role. President-elect Donald Trump has offered New York GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik the position of U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, according to a source cited by CNN. Stefanik, who chairs the House Republican Conference, was previously rumored to be a top contender for the role. This move positions Stefanik for a high-profile diplomatic post in the next administration. — Trump reportedly offered Robert Lighthizer the role of United States Trade Representative (USTR) in his incoming administration. Lighthizer previously served as the USTR during Trump’s first term from 2017 to 20211. He was a key architect of Trump’s trade policies, particularly in relation to China and the renegotiation of NAFTA. The Financial Times reported that Trump has asked Lighthizer to reprise his role as USTR, citing people familiar with the situation. This aligns with Lighthizer’s expertise and his continued involvement in trade policy discussions since leaving office. In 2023, he published a book titled No Trade is Free, advocating for an escalation of trade conflicts and tariff wars. Lighthizer, now 77 years old, is known for his protectionist stance and support for tariffs as a tool to combat foreign subsidies and strengthen American companies. His potential reappointment suggests that the incoming Trump administration may pursue aggressive trade policies, particularly regarding China. Of note: While this offer has been reported, official confirmation from the Trump transition team has not been given. A spokeswoman for the transition team stated that decisions on appointments will be announced when they are made. As of now, Lighthizer himself has not publicly responded to these reports — Ex-Trump officials among top picks for EPA, energy roles. Several former Trump officials are in contention for leadership roles in environmental and energy agencies in the next administration, according to The Hill (link). Andrew Wheeler, former EPA head known for rolling back climate regulations, remains in Trump’s orbit. David Bernhardt, ex-Interior Secretary and former oil lobbyist, focused on expanding public land drilling under Trump. Dan Brouillette, former Energy Secretary, recently left a lobbying group to engage with policymakers. Outgoing North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, once a VP contender, may hold an energy-related role. Their potential appointments align with Trump’s past environmental and energy policies. — Why investors are bullish following Trump victory. They expect tax cuts, less regulation, fewer guardrails, and a government no longer picking winners and losers (except for tariffs). But as previously noted, some of the things Trump wants to do or that he talked about doing would be inflationary, like lower interest rates, cutting taxes and aggressive use of tariffs. — Trump and RFK Jr. aim to reshape health care: What’s actually possible? With Republicans poised to regain control in Washington, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are pushing health care changes, including banning pharma drug ads and altering vaccine regulation. Experts suggest RFK Jr. could challenge vaccine approvals, while Trump’s administration might attempt to restrict fluoridation and reorient public health agencies toward chronic disease. Efforts could face legal hurdles and opposition within Congress, public health institutions, and courts. Additionally, the Trump administration may scale back addiction harm reduction programs while preserving broader access to overdose-reversal medication and addiction treatments. — China targets U.S. allies to counter Trump’s trade threats. Facing a potential surge in U.S. tariffs under President-elect Trump, China aims to weaken Washington’s alliances by courting European and Asian partners with tariff cuts, visa exemptions, and investments. According to the Wall Street Journal (link), Beijing hopes to mitigate damage to its economy by offering market access and trade incentives. However, China’s strategy faces hurdles as the European Union and U.S. allies in Asia remain wary, especially given China’s ties to Russia and unfulfilled trade pledges. With a shifting approach, China seeks to create leverage against Trump’s return to protectionist policies, which previously strained bilateral ties and risk further escalation. |
WASHINGTON FOCUS |
Congress returns while there will be some economic reports on inflation. President-elect Donald Trump will continue to announce key personnel decisions.
— Trump sets recess appointment demand for next Senate GOP leader. President-elect Donald Trump announced that any candidate for the next Senate Republican leadership must commit to facilitating recess appointments to ensure quick confirmations for his administration. Trump emphasized the need for immediate staffing, criticizing past delays.
As Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) prepares to step down, contenders like Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), John Cornyn (R-Tex.), and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) are vying for the position. Trump’s potential endorsement could heavily sway the vote, despite calls for him to stay out of the leadership race to maintain working relationships with all senators.
Elon Musk endorsed Scott, a longtime Trump ally and McConnell critic, for the leader job, after Scott backed Trump’s demand. Musk also has posted a poll asking his followers who should replace McConnell, who isn’t running for another term atop the GOP in Wednesday’s secret-ballot election.
Current GOP Whip John Thune and former whip John Cornyn vowed on Musk’s X social platform to accelerate confirmations of Trump’s cabinet. Cornyn reiterated he would keep the Senate in session every day until the cabinet is confirmed, while Thune said “all options are on the table,” including recess appointments.
Of note: Scott ran against McConnell two years ago and lost badly, and it’s not clear he could get a majority of Republicans on his side even if Trump endorsed him.
Senate Republican leadership election: Scheduled for Wed., Nov. 13.
• Will be held in Washington D.C. when senators reconvene after the election
• Will be conducted via secret ballot “behind closed doors”
House Republican leadership election: Likely Nov. 12 or 13
• Will be held at an undisclosed location near the House
House Democratic leadership election: Nov. 19
• Exact locations are not specified, but leadership elections are typically held in private meeting rooms in or near the Capitol building
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (Mass.) and House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (Calif.) are expected to keep their positions without serious opposition.
— President Joe Biden will host President-elect Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday for their first post-election meeting, setting in motion the U.S. transition of power that will be completed in January. They’ll convene in the Oval Office at 11 a.m. ET at Biden’s invitation, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement.
Biden pledged on Thursday to help ensure a peaceful transfer of power in January and called for healing divides in a politically polarized nation. “I hope we can do, no matter who you voted for, to see each other, not as adversaries, but as fellow Americans, bring down the temperature,” Biden said. “I also hope we can lay to rest the question about the integrity of the American electoral system. It is honest. It is fair and it is transparent. And it can be trusted, win or lose.”
Of note: Trump didn’t host his Democratic rival for such a sit-down in 2020 after Trump lost a re-election bid to Biden.
— Trump plans aggressive day-one agenda with immigration actions, military shake-ups, and policy reversals. Trump’s potential agenda for his next term, which touches on a range of policies, including immigration enforcement, executive orders on climate agreements, foreign policy shifts, and domestic political actions.
• Immigration: Trump plans to restart mass deportations (see next item), reintroduce the “Remain in Mexico” policy, continue construction of the U.S./Mexico border wall, and revoke birthright citizenship, though this last measure faces legal hurdles.
• Domestic policy and justice: He has stated intentions to fire Special Counsel Jack Smith and pardon January 6th offenders, positioning his administration against ongoing legal battles. Trump frames these moves as corrective actions against perceived political persecution.
• Climate: Trump intends to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Agreement, reversing Biden’s policy.
• Foreign policy: Prioritizing “America First,” Trump aims to end conflicts abroad, potentially by reducing U.S. financial aid to allies and imposing tariffs to boost the domestic economy.
• Military and security: He aims to demand resignations from those involved in the Afghanistan withdrawal.
• Social policies: Trump plans to revoke transgender student protections introduced by the Biden administration under Title IX.
— President-elect Donald Trump’s advisers are actively developing plans to implement his campaign promise of mass deportations, according to a report (link) by the Wall Street Journal. The plans include discussions on funding the operation and potentially declaring a national emergency to repurpose military assets for detaining and removing migrants.
The scope of this initiative is ambitious, with Trump targeting “as many as 20 million people” for deportation. His team is considering various policy changes to facilitate this process, including:
• Revoking Biden administration policies that limit ICE’s pursuit of non-criminal undocumented immigrants
• Modifying the immigration court system to expedite cases
• Initially focusing on approximately 1.3 million individuals with final deportation orders
Funding and implementation. The financial aspect of this massive undertaking is a primary concern. As the WSJ reports: “An estimate by the American Immigration Council, a liberal immigration group, estimated that an operation to deport the total number of people living in the U.S. illegally could cost $968 billion over more than a decade, or roughly $88 billion a year.”
To address this, Trump’s advisers are exploring several options:
• Declaring a national emergency to redirect Pentagon funds
• Using military bases for immigrant detention
• Employing military aircraft for deportations
Policy changes and legislative efforts. Trump’s team is also drafting executive orders to:
• Resume border wall construction
• Revise Biden’s asylum restrictions
• Revive the “Remain in Mexico” policy
Republican lawmakers, bolstered by recent election gains, plan to use the reconciliation process to fund Trump’s immigration proposals alongside energy and tax priorities.
Potential impact and criticism. The implementation of these plans could have far-reaching consequences. As the WSJ notes: “Should Trump realize even a fraction of his vision — he has pledged to carry out the largest mass deportation in U.S. history — the 45th and soon-to-be-47th president could send shock waves across the economy and upend the lives of millions of migrants and their families who have called the U.S. home for years.
Critics argue that such aggressive deportation efforts may have negative economic impacts and disrupt communities. However, Trump maintains that this approach is necessary to address what he perceives as issues related to crime, employment, and housing costs associated with illegal immigration.
As the transition period progresses, key figures in Trump’s immigration team are emerging, including Tom Homan, Stephen Miller, Chad Wolf, and Chad Mizelle, who are expected to play significant roles in shaping and implementing these policies.
— President Joe Biden this week will visit South America. He begins a state visit to Peru and Brazil on Thursday where he will meet the two countries’ leaders and take part in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, this year being held in Lima.
— Justice Sotomayor unlikely to retire amid calls from liberals. Despite calls from some liberal activists urging Justice Sonia Sotomayor to step down while Democrats hold appointment power, sources close to her confirm she has no plans to retire. At age 70, Sotomayor remains committed to her role as the senior liberal member of a Supreme Court dominated by six conservatives. Comparisons to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s decision not to retire during a Democratic presidency highlight fears about the liberal minority’s future influence. Discussions extend to potential retirements among conservative justices, underscoring the politically charged nature of court appointments.
OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS |
Monday, Nov. 11
· Veterans Day. U.S. holiday. Arlington National Cemetery 71st annual National Veterans Day Observance with several wreath-laying ceremonies at various military monuments in Washington. U.S. federal gov’t offices are closed but most markets are open and trade normal hours with the exception of the bond market which is closed. The Monday holiday will push back some weekly updates such as Export Inspections, Crop Progress, U.S. gov’t oil inventory data and ethanol production, and weekly Export Sales. The Friday Commitments of Traders report is not delayed.
· COP29 Conference. Event in Azerbaijan runs through Nov. 22. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack will be among those participating as part of the U.S. delegation to the conference.
· Climate accord and corporate actions. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion on “Has the Paris Climate Agreement Changed Corporate Behavior?”
Tuesday, Nov. 12
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivers remarks on Payments at the Clearing House Annual Conference in New York. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari scheduled to speak.
· Agricultural Bankers Conference, though Thursday, Milwaukee.
· Gensler remarks. Yahoo 2024 Finance Invest Conference with SEC Chairman Gary Gensler delivering remarks on “Investing in Regulatory Frameworks.”
· U.S. elections. New York University’s Brademas Center discussion on “Inside American Politics 2024.” Runs through Wednesday.
· U.S. foreign policy outlook. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion on “America’s Foreign Policy Future: A Post-Election Analysis.”
· House member-elect orientation. House Committee on Administration member-elect arrival day event during its 10-day-long New Member Orientation.
· Election analysis. Brookings Institution virtual discussion on “What Happened on Nov. 5: A Deep Dive into Results of the Presidential and Congressional Races.”
· Critical minerals in SE Asia. Marketlinks virtual discussion on a new report, “Landscape Analysis of Critical Minerals in Southeast Asia.”
· North Korea situation. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on the latest developments in North Korea.
· U.S. Middle East policy. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion on “The Next Administration’s Middle East Policy.”
· Energy generation. Environmental Protection Agency meeting of the Environmental Financial Advisory Board to explore strategies for mobilizing private capital in distributed energy generation projects to leverage the government’s recent historic $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.
· Data infrastructure. Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion on “Innovative Approaches to a Secure Data Infrastructure.”
· FERC meeting. Energy Dept., Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) meeting of the Federal and State Current Issues Collaborative to explore cross-jurisdictional issues relevant to FERC and state utility commissions.
Wednesday, Nov. 13
· Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Lorie Logan, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid are scheduled to speak.
· National Association of Farm Broadcasting annual convention, though Saturday, Kansas City.
· Election analysis. Public Affairs Council and CQ Roll Call and FiscalNote virtual discussion on “Post-Election Round Up: What Happened & What’s Next.”
· China and critical minerals. Hudson Institute discussion on “Competing with China on Critical Minerals.”
· Economic outlook and businesses. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “Doing Business in America and the Global Economic Outlook.”
· SEC small business panel. Securities and Exchange Commission meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee for matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.
· U.S. elections and EU relations. Blue Star Strategies and Publyon EU virtual discussion on “the U.S. elections results and their impact on the future of the American politics and the relations with the EU.”
· Taiwan situation. Atlantic Council discussion on a new report, “Avoiding Entanglement: G20 Responses in a Taiwan Crisis.”
· Latin American copper. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Can Latin America’s Copper Be the Key to a Low-Carbon Future?”
· U.S. elections and Gaza. Arab Center virtual discussion on “Post-Election Assessment: U.S. Election Results and the Future of U.S. Foreign Policy and the Gaza War.”
· Energy supply chains. United States Energy Association virtual news conference on “After the Disasters: Making the Supply Chain More Resilient.”
· Countering China’s military buildup. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion on “Countering China’s Military Buildup.”
Thursday, Nov. 14
· Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the Economic Outlook in Dallas, Texas. Fed Governor Adrana Kugler speaks on Central Bank Independence and Economic Outlook at the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and the Latin American Chapter of the Econometric Society 2024 Meeting, Departamento de Montevideo, Uruguay. New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.
· Energy permitting. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Perils of Proceduralism,” focusing on the implications of permitting challenges facing energy infrastructure in the United States.
· U.S. elections and Europe. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion on “The U.S. Election — Where Does It Leave Europe?”
· Securities regulation. Practicing Law Institute 56th Annual Institute on Security Regulations with remarks from SEC Chair Gary Gensler.
· Trump and Korea. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “What to Expect from Trump 2.0 for Korea?”
· Farm Credit meeting. Farm Credit Administration meeting for a report on access to capital in Indian country.
· Ukraine economy. Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program virtual discussion on “Surviving and Thriving: Ukraine’s Economy During and After the War.”
· Mexico security strategy. Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute virtual discussion on Mexico’s president: “Claudia Sheinbaum’s Security Strategy: A Path Forward?”
· U.S. response to Iran. Middle East Institute virtual discussion on “Rethinking the U.S. Response to Iran’s Levers of Destabilizing Regional Influence.”
· Decarbonization. Reuters virtual discussion on “Demystifying the Road to Decarbonization: The Realities of Sustainable Progress.”
· U.S. election and global economy. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on the global economy and “What’s Next After the 2024 U.S. Election?”
· Social Security Administration. House Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on the Social Security Administration.
· Pandemic preparation. House Oversight and Accountability Select Coronavirus Pandemic Subcommittee hearing on “Preparing for the Next Pandemic: Lessons Learned and The Path Forward.”
· Argentina and dollarization. Cato Institute virtual forum on “Why Argentina Must Still Dollarize.”
· FCC AI discussion. Federal Communications Bar Association Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Robotics Committee virtual discussion on “Taking Stock of the 2024 AI Landscape: A Look Back at Federal and State AI Developments.”
· Ukraine aggressors. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “Axis of Aggressors: Russia, China and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Against Ukraine.”
· AI policy. Cato Institute discussion on “Understanding AI and AI Policy in 2024 and Beyond.”
Friday, Nov. 15
· U.S./Korea relations. George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies Korea Policy Forum on “Perspectives on the U.S./Republic of Korea Alliance after the U.S. Presidential Election.”
· U.S. elections and Iran. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion on “Post U.S. Election: Compromise or Confrontation with Iran?”
· U.S. elections and foreign policy. George Washington University discussion on “The 2024 Elections in Europe and the United States: Implications for Democracy and Foreign Policy.”
ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
Traders will receive October consumer price index data on Wednesday, followed by the retail sales report for the same month on Friday. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will keep investors busy with a speech.
Tuesday, Nov. 12
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivers remarks on Payments at the Clearing House Annual Conference in New York. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari scheduled to speak.
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Wednesday, Nov. 13
• Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Lorie Logan, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid are scheduled to speak.
• CPI
• Treasury Budget
Thursday, Nov. 14
• Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the Economic Outlook in Dallas, Texas. Fed Governor Adrana Kugler speaks on Central Bank Independence and Economic Outlook at the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and the Latin American Chapter of the Econometric Society 2024 Meeting, Departamento de Montevideo, Uruguay. New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.
• Jobless Claims
• PPI-FD
• Fed Balance Sheet
• Money Supply
Friday, Nov. 15
• Empire State Manufacturing
• Retail Sales
• Import & Export Prices
• Industrial Production
• Business Inventories
KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
A three-day grain conference begins in Geneva on Tuesday. Tyson Foods earnings are due Tuesday.
Monday, Nov. 11
Ag reports and events:
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly data on stockpiles, exports and production
• IAOM’s MEA milling conference and expo, Dubai, day 2
• Holiday: U.S., France, Canada
Energy reports and events:
• COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan; runs through November 22
• APEC summit in Lima, Peru; runs through Saturday
• Earnings: ONGC
• Holiday: U.S., France, Canada
Tuesday, Nov. 12
Ag reports and events:
• Global Grain Geneva, day 1
• France agriculture ministry’s crop estimates
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• IAOM’s MEA milling conference and expo, Dubai, day 3
• Export Inspections
• Rural America at a Glance: 2024 Edition
• Season-Average Price Forecasts • Feed Grains Database
• Wheat Data
• Crop Progress
• Earnings: Tyson Foods, Mosaic
Energy reports and events:
• Engie presents decarbonization pathways 2024 report
• OPEC Monthly Oil Market report
• Bank of America Global Energy Conference, Houston; runs through Wednesday
• ICE November gasoil futures expire
• Earnings: EnBW, Seadrill, Verbio, Suncor, Occidental
Wednesday, Nov. 13
Ag reports and events:
• Meat Price Spreads
• Dairy Monthly Tables and Dairy Quarterly Data
• Cotton and Wool Outlook Tables
• Oil Crops Outlook
• Feed Outlook
• Wheat Outlook
• Rice Outlook
• Broiler Hatchery
• Global Grain Geneva, day 2
• IAOM’s MEA milling conference and expo, Dubai, day 4
• Earnings: JBS
Energy reports and events:
• EIA Short Term Energy Outlook report
• API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
• Genscape weekly crude inventory report
• Earnings: ENEOS, RWE, SSE, Siemens Energy, Orlen
Thursday, Nov. 14
Ag reports and events:
• Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Brazil’s Conab releases production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans
• Global Grain Geneva, day 3
• Earnings: GrainCorp
• Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables
• Cost-of-Production Forecast
• Census of Agriculture: Irrigation and Water Management
Energy reports and events:
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
• EIA Natural Gas Report
• Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
• IEA Monthly Oil Market report
• Earnings: E.ON, Helleniq
Friday, Nov. 15
Ag reports and events:
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report
• Peanut Prices
• Malaysia’s Nov. 1-15 palm oil exports
• FranceAgriMer’s weekly crop condition report
Energy reports and events:
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
• WTI December options expire
• Earnings: Vallourec
• Holiday: Brazil, India
KEY LINKS |
WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | New farm bill primer | | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum |