Concerns Mount Over Declining U.S. Agricultural Exports and Trade Strategy

Stabenow’s farm bill comments: Out of context, or running out of time?

Jim Wiesemeyer

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March 13, 2024 08:56 AM

Stabenow’s farm bill comments: Out of context, or running out of time?

Today’s Digital Newspaper

MARKET FOCUS

Some of Boeing’s top buyers are starting to feel the effects of its latest Max crisis
150 workers at John Deere plant in Ankeny, Iowa, will experience layoffs soon
Citadel founder thinks Fed should move slowly in lowering interest rates
Lingering inflation may stymie Fed’s interest rate timeline
Argentina’s monthly inflation dips to 13.2% in Feb., annual rate remains high at 276.2%
Yuan unlikely to overtake dollar in global finance, but
Ag markets today
France cuts wheat export forecast
Rains boost Aussie cotton prospects
Soybean futures rise to three-week high
Ag trade update
NWS weather outlook
Pro Farmer First Thing Today items

CONGRESS

Senate isn’t in session today, returns tomorrow for more work on nominations
House to vote on a bill to force TikTok’s Chinese parent company to sell the app

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

White House providing $300 million in additional weapons to Ukraine
Russia ‘prepared’ for nuclear war, warns Vladimir Putin
Ukrainian maritime ag exports to decline by 20% in March vs February levels

POLICY

Stabenow comments: Out of context, or out of time?

CHINA

Biden announces U.S. will review union petition re: China’s shipbuilding subsidies
Chinese property sector woes continue as Country Gardens misses payment
1 in 5 of China’s electric car owners wouldn’t buy another due to charging problems

TRADE POLICY

Concerns mount over declining U.S. agricultural exports and trade strategy

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

Biodiesel faces pressure from renewable diesel surge, threatening plant shutdowns
Danish company Orsted reveals plan to sell stakes in four U.S. onshore wind farms
Biden plan to deploy battery-charging & hydrogen-refueling stations for electric trucks

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

FTC hearing set for Aug. 26 on Kroger, Albertsons merger block request

HEALTH UPDATE

Measles outbreak linked to migrant shelter in Chicago; CDC team arrives

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

Biden & Trump clinch nominations, setting stage for grueling general election rematch
Buck to leave House this month, further narrowing GOP majority
Aaron Rodgers and Jesse Ventura top RFK Jr.’s running mate list
Trump’s endorsement fails to secure Ohio Senate GOP primary lead for Moreno

Last chance Pro Farmer members: Please fill out our acreage survey. You should have received our annual spring acreage survey via e-mail. Please fill out the survey with your current planting intentions for this year. We’ll cover results and our acreage forecasts ahead of USDA’s March 28 Prospective Plantings Report. Click here to fill out the survey if you haven’t already responded. Please complete the survey only once.

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. Dow opened around 70 points higher. In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong -0.1%. China -0.4%. India -1.2%. In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.2%.

U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices despite initially dipping into negative territory following the U.S. inflation update. The Dow was up 235.83 points, 0.61%, at 39,005.49. The Nasdaq rose 246.36 points, 1.54%, at 16,265.64. The S&P 500 gained 57.33 points, 1.12%, at 5,175.27.

— Approximately 150 workers at the John Deere Des Moines Works in Ankeny, Iowa, will experience layoffs soon. Factory leaders notified workers about the layoffs on Friday, KTVO reported. In a statement, John Deere noted that “Each John Deere factory balances the size of its production workforce with the needs of the individual factory to optimize the workforce at each facility.” There are reportedly 1,700 workers at the Ankeny factory and over 1,000 of them hold positions in production and maintenance.

— Boeing’s challenges are beginning to affect U.S. airborne supply chains, with passenger airlines scaling back flights and adjusting pilot and crew hiring plans due to the expectation of receiving fewer Boeing planes than initially planned for the year. Southwest Airlines, United Airlines, and Alaska Air are among the carriers considering reducing capacity expansion in the coming months. Consequently, this will limit cargo capacity growth in domestic U.S. markets during the spring and summer, despite increasing shipping demand.

According to reports from the Wall Street Journal (link), the International Air Transport Association notes a significant increase in North American airfreight demand in January, outpacing the growth in capacity. However, Boeing’s delivery performance is not providing relief, with the manufacturer delivering only 17 narrow-body 737 MAX jets in February, half the number shipped last year and well below its production target of 38 MAXs per month.

— Ag markets today: Soybean futures retreated from Tuesday’s gains during overnight trade, while the corn and wheat markets have weakened after two-sided price action earlier in the session. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading mostly 2 cents lower, soybeans were 11 to 12 cents lower, SRW wheat was 2 cents lower, HRW wheat was 4 to 6 cents lower and HRS wheat was 4 to 5 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures were more than $1.00 higher, and the U.S. dollar index was trading just below unchanged.

Wholesale beef prices continue to charge higher. Wholesale beef prices weren’t able to sustain all of their gains from Tuesday morning but still ended the day $1.71 higher for Choice and up 72 cents for Select. Choice boxes pushed above $310.00 and Select is nearing $300.00. While movement has slowed, the strengthening wholesale prices are boosting packer margins.

Wholesale pork price drop. Wholesale pork prices were unable to sustain Tuesday morning’s strength, as bellies and hams posted sharp losses, pulling the cutout $1.04 lower for the day. While prices dropped, movement improved to 302.2 loads, signaling there’s solid retailer demand under the market. That should help limit near-term price pressure unless there’s a collapse in belly and ham prices.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

Corn: May corn futures closed steady at $4.41 3/4 and near mid-range. Prices hit another three-week high early on.
Soy complex: May soybeans rallied 16 3/4 cents to $11.96, a one-month-high close, while May meal rose $2.00 to $339.20. May soyoil surged 118 points to 47.82 cents, marking the highest close since Feb. 8.
Wheat: May SRW futures rose 1/4 cent to $5.47 1/2 in choppy trade. May HRW futures slipped 1 1/2 cents to $5.97 1/4, settling near the session’s mid-point. May spring wheat rose 2 cents to $6.72.
Cotton: May cotton rose a modest 17 points to 95.23 cents, though it was a high-range close.
Cattle: April live cattle futures rallied 65 cents to $188.25, settling near the mid-point of today’s session. April feeder cattle futures firmed $1.025 to $254.125, while nearby March futures rallied 72.5 cents to $248.975.
Hogs: April lean hogs closed up $2.075 at $85.35 and near the session high.

— Quotes of note:

Citadel founder Ken Griffin said he thinks the Fed should move slowly in lowering interest rates to avoid the possibility of having to reverse course later. “Pausing and then changing direction back toward higher rates quickly, that would, in my opinion, be the most devastating course of action to pursue,” Griffin said Tuesday. “So I think they’re going to be a bit slower than people were expecting.”
“You know in ‘The Exorcist,’ when the girl flies from the bed and hits the ceiling? It’s exactly that scene.” — Brian Jokat, a passenger on a Latam Airlines-operated Boeing jet that underwent a midair incident.
“We have developed a remediation plan with respect to the identified material weakness to enhance the reliability of our financial statements with respect to the pricing and reporting of such sales.” — ADM Chief Executive Juan Luciano. The company corrected some past financial results over the years while reporting lower quarterly sales and a more-than-40% drop in earnings compared with a year ago. On Tuesday, the company said its accounting review found that some products sold internally between business divisions were priced at a discount compared with their market rate.

— Lingering inflation may stymie Fed’s interest rate timeline. The CPI for all prices rose 0.4% in the month, up from 0.3% in January after months of slower increases. This means the inflation pace for the last three months at an annual rate is faster than for the last 12 months.

The core inflation rate, sans food and energy, rose at 0.4% for the second month in a row, or 3.8% for the last 12 months. That’s in the opposite direction of where the Federal Reserve wants prices to go as it attempts to return to its 2% annual inflation target.

After Tuesday’s CPI report, traders still saw June as the likely first rate cut, but pulled those bets back a bit.

Of note: The Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, doesn’t put as much weight on shelter as the CPI does and is a big reason why the PCE is trending much closer to the Fed’s 2% target. PCE figures for February are due later this month.

Says the Wall Street Journal in a commentary on the topic (link): “Putting the champagne back on ice may be the wiser course. The price acceleration coincides with evidence that monetary conditions aren’t as tight as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said. Equities have been rising almost without a break since late October. Speculative bets like Bitcoin are back in vogue. Gold prices spiked until a recent correction. And junk bond spreads over Treasurys are signaling that risk is back on, baby. There’s some evidence that the strong economic growth of 2023 has slowed, but there are no signs of recession. Yet as recently as last week, Mr. Powell made clear that he expects to cut interest rates more than once in 2024. The question is whether that guidance looks wise amid these hardly stringent financial conditions.”

— In Argentina, the monthly inflation rate dipped to 13.2% in February from 20.6% in January and 25.5% in December, which was below expectations. However, the annualized inflation rate remains extraordinarily high at 276.2% in February, indicating an increase from January and maintaining Argentina’s position with the highest inflation rate globally. The surge in food prices has been particularly challenging for President Javier Milei’s economic shock program aimed at revitalizing the economy. Milei’s office celebrated the inflation data on social media, attributing it to “strong fiscal discipline.” Despite this, Argentina faces potential economic challenges ahead, including declining sales and production activity.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker, with the euro, yen and British pound all firmer against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was higher, trading around 4.18%, with a higher tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were sharply higher ahead of U.S. inventory data due later this morning, with U.S. crude around $78.85 per barrel and Brent around $83.15 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were higher ahead of US trading, with gold around $2,170 per troy ounce and silver around $24.53 per troy ounce.

— OMFIF discussion: Yuan unlikely to overtake dollar in global finance, but… Experts gathered at a discussion hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) agree that the Chinese yuan is unlikely to overthrow the dominance of the dollar in the global financial system. However, rather than focusing on dethroning the dollar, China may opt to establish an alternative institutional arrangement alongside the existing financial system, with the yuan at its center.

OMFIF senior economist Taylor Pearce highlighted in a summary of the analysis (link) that China’s strategy could resemble how the United States championed the Bretton Woods system after World War II, disregarding the Soviet Union and its allies. In this scenario, the United States might be marginalized rather than entirely excluded, and the dollar would likely remain outside of China’s regional or geopolitical sphere of influence.

In a more extreme scenario, the alternative system could be explicitly designed to exclude the United States, indicating a shift toward a new geoeconomic orientation.

— France cuts wheat export forecast. France’s ag ministry cut the country’s wheat export outlook for 2023-24. It now forecasts wheat exports outside the EU at 10.15 MMT, down 100,000 MT from last month. Exports within the bloc are forecast at 6.19 MMT, down 130,000 MT from last month. As a result, French wheat stocks at the end of the 2023-24 marketing year are now projected at 3.74 MMT, nearly 47% above 2022-23 and a 19-year high.

— Rains boost Aussie cotton prospects. Cotton Australia raised its estimate for Australian production this year to “at least” 4.5 million bales after widespread rainfall boosted yields. “Our growers were expecting a long, hot and dry summer forcing a crop revision below 4 million bales,” said Adam Kay, CEO of industry group Cotton Australia. “The rains across our largest growing areas were very welcome and now we are expecting at least 4.5 million bales,” he said.

— Soybean futures have risen to a three-week high of around $11.80 per bushel due to decreased production forecasts for Brazil by Conab, the country’s crop agency, who revised its estimates down by 2.6 million metric tons to 146.858 million metric tons due to adverse weather conditions. This puts Brazil’s soybean production 8.15 million metric tons below the USDA’s projection. Heavy rains in Argentina are causing soil saturation, potentially impacting harvest efforts. Despite these challenges, soybean prices are still down more than 9% for the year, attributed to a surplus of Brazilian soybeans from a record harvest last year and expectations of a strong harvest in Argentina.

— Ag trade update: Thailand purchased 120,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat.

— NWS weather outlook: Heavy snow develops over central Colorado Wednesday night into Thursday followed by rain/mountain snow across the Four Corners to the southern High Plains Thursday into Friday... ...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible from the Midwest to the southern Plains from this evening into Thursday... ...Strong to severe thunderstorms with a slight risk of excessive rainfall expected Thursday evening into early Friday from the southern Plains to the Mid-South.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Price pressure on grains building this morning
• Ukraine ag exports expected to decline this month
• PBOC advisor calls for structural reform to spur growth
• Eurozone industrial production plunges
• UK economy returns to modest growth at start of 2024

CONGRESS

— Senate isn’t in session today and returns tomorrow for more work on nominations.

— House meets at 9 a.m. ET to vote on a bill to force TikTok’s Chinese parent company to sell the app. House Republicans then head to their annual retreat to tweak political messaging months before Nov. 5 elections.

— House to vote on bill potentially targeting TikTok’s U.S. operations. The House is scheduled to vote on a bill today that could potentially force ByteDance, the Chinese owner of TikTok, to sell its U.S. operations or face a ban on the app. However, there is debate over whether ByteDance can feasibly sell TikTok or if the bill effectively constitutes a disguised ban. While the bill does not explicitly use the term “ban,” it frames the measure as essential to protect national security from threats posed by foreign-controlled apps like TikTok.

TikTok perceives the bill as a “shutdown,” a viewpoint challenged by the lawmakers behind it. The key questions in the debate revolve around whether the bill allows for a sale, the likelihood of China permitting such a sale, and the implications for ByteDance’s Western investors.

The bill’s passing prospects are uncertain, with significant political stakes in the lead-up to the presidential election. Lobbyists are focusing efforts on the Senate, considering folding the TikTok bill into the National Defense Authorization Act to delay President Biden’s decision until after the election.

Of note: China could use TikTok to influence the 2024 U.S. elections, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told a House of Representatives intelligence committee hearing on Tuesday.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— White House is providing $300 million in additional weapons to Ukraine as more funding remains held up in Congress by Republican leaders. The announcement comes as the Ukrainian military is facing dire weapons shortages in its two-year war with Russia. The delivery will include artillery rounds, armor systems and air defense interceptors, which are seen as critical for Ukraine’s defenses against Russian bombardment. Funding for the package came from money Army accountants saved from contracts that came in under bid.

— Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that while nuclear war is not imminent, his country is militarily and technically prepared for such a scenario. He made these remarks during an interview with Rossiya-1 TV and the RIA news service in response to a question about Russia’s readiness for nuclear conflict. Additionally, Putin emphasized that any deployment of U.S. troops to Ukraine would escalate the conflict significantly.

With elections scheduled for March 15-17, Putin is expected to secure another six-year term as Russia’s leader.

He also expressed readiness for substantive discussions with Ukraine, provided they are grounded in reality rather than unfounded aspirations.

— Ukrainian maritime agricultural exports are expected to decline by 20% in March compared to February levels, according to a Reuters report citing information from Spike Brokers. Although specific tonnage figures were not provided, the firm stated that the pace of maritime exports is slowing down in March compared to February. Current trends suggest that total exports in March may be up to 20% lower than in February. Railway transit of agricultural products out of Ukraine has also decreased, with an average daily rate of 299 wagons in March compared to 374 in February, marking the lowest figure since the beginning of the war. Additionally, exports via roads have declined to 132,000 metric tons from March 1-11, compared to 172,000 metric tons for the same period in February.

POLICY UPDATE

— Farm bill update: Out of context? The only thing that is “new” about topic is that Sen. Chuck Grassley said he talked with Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and he says she told him her comments about the farm bill were taken out of context. That usually occurs when one gets push back about comments they previously made. Grassley said he recently talked to Stabenow about farm bill timing. Grassley said Stabenow said her team is still working on a new farm bill. Nothing new about that. Last month, reports noted that Stabenow told a group of anti-hunger advocates during a White House event that she would be “OK” keeping the current farm bill in place, in order to protect nutrition and climate programs from Republicans. As repeated as many times as lawmakers are trying to finalize fiscal year 2024 spending, Some farm-state Republicans want an increase in statutory reference prices in commodity support programs as part of a new farm bill, and have proposed repurposing a significant portion of climate funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (Climate Bill) to pay for it. Some Republicans have also proposed placing limits on future updates of the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP). Stabenow and other Democrats are strongly opposed to repurposing any of the IRA money away from climate-smart agriculture purposes or altering the TFP.

So, what exactly was taken “out of context” relative to Stabenow’s prior comments? Is she now saying funding in her favorite programs are ripe for plucking? Don’t think so.

CHINA UPDATE

— President Biden announced that the U.S. will review a union petition regarding China’s shipbuilding subsidies. In a social media post, Biden affirmed his commitment to fighting against China’s unfair practices and supporting American workers and jobs. He stated that U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai will thoroughly examine the petition in accordance with the law.

Tai announced on Tuesday that she will review a petition submitted by several major labor unions regarding China’s activities in the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sector. The petition was made under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 — the same statute that former president Donald Trump used to justify the imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports when he launched a trade war with Beijing in 2018.

The petition, submitted by unions including the United Steelworkers, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, and others, raises concerns about China’s actions, policies, and practices in these critical industries. Tai highlighted China’s creation of dependencies and vulnerabilities in various sectors, such as steel, aluminum, solar, batteries, and critical minerals, which have negatively impacted American workers and businesses while posing risks to supply chains.

The USW petition will claim that Chinese shipbuilders have benefited from protectionist government policies, including preferential financing ranging from state-run bank loans to tax breaks. Over the past two decades, China has gone from producing roughly 12% of global commercial ships by tonnage to more than 50% in 2023, according to Clarksons Research, a maritime consultancy.

Of note: The U.S. Trade Representative now has 45 days to decide whether to initiate an investigation into the issues raised by the petition.

— Chinese property sector woes continue as Country Gardens misses payment. Chinese property developer Country Garden Holdings said funds for a 96-million-yuan ($13 million) coupon payment due Tuesday were not fully in place. It plans to raise funds for the missed onshore coupon payment within a 30-day grace period, but the missed payment sparked more concerns with the beleaguered developer.

— One in five of China’s electric car owners wouldn’t buy another due to charging problems, McKinsey report reveals. A report by McKinsey China has shown significant disillusionment among Chinese electric car owners in 2023, with 22% stating they wouldn’t consider new energy vehicles (NEVs) for their next car. This figure starkly contrasts with the mere 3% recorded in 2022. Link for details.

TRADE POLICY

— Concerns mount over declining U.S. agricultural exports and trade strategy. In a letter (link/pdf) addressed to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, the writers express deep concern over the significant decline in critical markets for U.S. agricultural exports. They highlight the historical efforts made to increase market access through negotiations, removal of trade barriers, and holding trading partners accountable. However, recent data indicates a troubling trend with U.S. agricultural exports declining by over $17 billion in the last fiscal year alone, with further forecasts projecting an additional decline of over $8 billion in the current fiscal year. This decline is expected to result in a record agricultural trade deficit of $30.5 billion.

The writers attribute this decline to what they perceive as an unambitious U.S. trade strategy that fails to expand market access or reduce trade barriers effectively. They criticize the Biden administration for not pursuing traditional free trade agreements while other countries, including China, Canada, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, continue to sign trade pacts that disadvantage American exporters.

Highlighting the importance of international trade for the U.S. agriculture sector, the letter points out that a significant portion of major crops and agricultural products are destined for foreign markets. Diminishing access to these markets poses economic challenges and threatens the livelihoods of millions of American workers, farmers, and ranchers.

The letter concludes with specific questions directed at the Biden administration, asking for details on the specific actions planned to increase agricultural exports in 2024 and whether there are intentions to pursue new or improved free trade agreements to gain market access for agricultural products. Additionally, they request the administration to analyze the relationship between U.S. competitiveness and market share in foreign agricultural markets with negotiated tariffs and other market access provisions.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— Biodiesel production faces pressure from renewable diesel surge, threatening plant shutdowns. The production of biodiesel, a renewable fuel derived from soybean oil, is facing challenges due to the surge in renewable diesel, according to agricultural economist Scott Irwin. He warns (link) that if the current losses experienced in 2024 persist, more biodiesel plants may shut down.

Irwin’s calculations show that Midwest biodiesel plants lost an average of 20 cents per gallon between 2021 and 2024, coinciding with the rise of renewable diesel production. The operable capacity of biodiesel facilities peaked at 2.46 billion gallons per year in 2021 but dropped to 2.09 billion gallons per year by July 2022.

Chevron recently announced the closure of biodiesel plants in Iowa and Wisconsin, totaling 50 million gallons per year, citing poor market conditions. This, along with previous shutdowns, suggests a potential for further closures in 2024.

Biodiesel and renewable diesel compete in a limited market for biomass-based diesel, with production capacity surpassing demand. Renewable diesel, which can directly replace petroleum diesel and offers cleaner burning and higher power, has gained an advantage. Policies in California, Oregon, and Washington State promote the use of renewable diesel. The two fuels are produced through different processes: renewable diesel through hydrotreating and biodiesel through transesterification. Both rely on soybean oil as a primary feedstock, although other fats and oils can also be used.

USDA estimates that approximately half of U.S. soybean oil will be used for biofuels in the current year, up from 38% in 2022. This increased demand is expected to lead to the construction of new soybean crushing plants (for example, a big one in Hennepin, Illinois by Marquis) and the expansion of existing ones.

Of note: Despite a decline in exports, the larger domestic demand for soyoil is predicted to offset this reduction.

— Danish company Orsted revealed its plan to sell stakes in four U.S. onshore wind farms, totaling 957 megawatts in capacity, to the investment group Stonepeak for approximately $300 million. As part of the deal, Stonepeak will receive 80% of cash distributions associated with the projects, while Orsted will continue to operate them. Additionally, Orsted retains a unilateral call option to repurchase Stonepeak’s interests under specific conditions after the transaction concludes. Orsted stated that this transaction will allow them to “recycle capital” to support their business plan and future renewable energy projects aimed at creating value.

— Biden administration unveiled a plan to deploy battery-charging and hydrogen-refueling stations for electric trucks over a 16-year period. The plan initially focuses on 12,000 miles of freight-heavy interstates and major container ports in four phases, aiming to accelerate the adoption of battery-electric and fuel-cell electric trucks.

Phase 1 of the National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy targets local and regional trucking operations, first- and last-mile delivery, and port drayage, gradually moving towards accommodating long-haul trucking. The strategy, developed by the U.S. departments of Energy and Transportation and the Environmental Protection Agency, aims to meet current and future market demands while mobilizing actions to achieve decarbonization.

Network details. In conjunction with the charging strategy, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has designated the National Highway Freight Network (NHFN) and roadways in several states as the National EV Freight Corridors network. These efforts align with the administration’s goal to promote zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty truck sales.

Phase 1 targets 12,000 miles of interstates, including key routes such as Interstates 5, 10, 25, 75, 80, 95, and the Texas Triangle. Major container ports, including the Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York and New Jersey, Seattle, Tacoma, Miami, Houston, and Savannah, are also included in Phase 1.

The strategy outlines a timeline for the expansion of infrastructure:

Establish priority hubs based on freight volumes (2024-2027).
Connect hubs along critical freight corridors (2027-2030).
Expand corridor connections initiating network development (2030-2035).
Achieve full access to the national network by linking regional corridors (2035-2040).

Throughout the phases, there will be a transition from battery-electric to hydrogen fuel cell electric truck technology, with an emphasis on regional goods distribution and long-haul transportation.

Phase 4 of the strategy expands to include truck parking facilities to service zero-emission trucks across all use cases, highlighting the importance of a fully integrated transportation energy system to support various vehicle classes and duty cycles.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

— FTC hearing set for Aug. 26 on Kroger, Albertsons merger block request. A hearing on the Federal Trade Commission’s request for a preliminary injunction seeking to block the planned Kroger, Albertsons merger has been set to begin on Aug. 26, nearly two years after agreement was first announced. The FTC last month sued to block Kroger’s proposed $24.6 billion acquisition of Albertsons, citing the potential for reduced competition in many markets, which the FTC said could harm both consumers and workers. The agency was joined in the suit by attorneys general from eight states and the District of Columbia.

HEALTH UPDATE

— Measles outbreak linked to a migrant shelter in Chicago has prompted the arrival of a CDC team to assist with response efforts. The Chicago Department of Public Health reported the city’s first measles case since 2019, with a total of eight cases citywide, all either recovered or in stable condition. While the majority of Chicagoans are vaccinated against measles, the city strongly urges those who aren’t vaccinated to do so as soon as possible, according to Dr. Olusimbo Ige, Commissioner of the Chicago Department of Public Health.

Measles was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000, but recent cases have emerged across the country. As of last week, 45 cases have been reported in 17 jurisdictions nationwide this year.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Trump and Biden clinched their party’s presidential nominations yesterday after winning enough delegate votes to cross a key threshold, cementing a rematch.

— Rep. Ken Buck to leave Congress March 22. Buck (R-Colo.) announced last fall he would not seek re-election, further shrinking the GOP’s already razor-thin majority. Buck didn’t give a reason for resigning early. “Today I am announcing that I will depart Congress at the end of next week,” Buck said in a statement. “I look forward to staying involved in our political process, as well as spending more time in Colorado and with my family.”

Buck is a member of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus. He frequently broke from his party on major issues. Buck was one of eight Republican lawmakers to join in ousting then-Speaker McCarthy. He has recently broken with the Republican House majority over the impeachment drives against President Joe Biden and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

When asked during an interview with CNN why he is leaving now as his party already has a slim majority in the House, he said “it’s important to get in the mix of this election cycle and start talking about the issues that people recognize are such a problem right now.” He added that Congress is “dysfunctional,” pointing out that even as the third ranking member of the Judiciary Committee he still hadn’t gotten to ask his questions to special counsel Robert Hur, despite the hearing proceeding for hours prior to the recess. “For example, I am the [No. 3] ranking member of the Judiciary Committee [and] I haven’t even asked my questions yet,” he said. “Forty, fifty people have gone before me… It could be personal, but a lot of this is personal and that’s the problem. Instead of having decorum, instead of operating in a professional manner, this place has just devolved into this bickering and nonsense and not really doing the job for the American people.”

— Buck’s House departure will cut the House Republican margin to 218-213. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will still have two votes to spare before needing Democrats to govern. But an April 30 special election in a Democratic-leaning Buffalo, New York-area district could cut that to a one-defection margin, since a tie vote loses in the House. A special election to replace former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in a safely Republican California district follows just over three weeks later. (Vince Fong, a Republican, is likely to win that race.)

U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, currently representing Colorado’s 3rd District, is running to replace Buck in the 4th District. She would have to resign her current seat (in another district) if she is elected to replace Buck in a special election to fill the seat later this year, or risk running against an incumbent. Colorado law calls for a special election to fill Buck’s vacant seat between 85 and 100 days of his official resignation (meaning an election would have to be by early August).

— Aaron Rodgers and Jesse Ventura top RFK Jr.’s running mate list. Kennedy recently approached both men about potentially joining the ticket for his independent presidential run, and both welcomed the overtures, reports note. Link to more via the New York Times.

Kennedy is expected to name his running mate in the coming weeks, ahead of deadlines in states that require him to have a vice-presidential pick to petition for ballot access. He initially ran for president as a Democrat but announced in October that he would run as an independent instead, accusing Democrats of corruptly blocking his challenge to Biden.

— Trump’s endorsement fails to secure Ohio Senate GOP primary lead for Moreno; tight race with Dolan continues. Jessica Taylor, Senate analyst for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, says the Ohio Senate GOP primary, just one week away, remains highly competitive despite businessman Bernie Moreno’s endorsement from former President Trump, typically a powerful advantage in GOP primaries. She says Moreno is in a dead heat with state Sen. Matt Dolan, turning the race into a traditional battle between MAGA and GOP establishment factions.

Trump’s last-minute decision to rally for Moreno underscores the urgency of the situation, with Taylor saying her sources are suggesting that Trump’s endorsement significantly boosts Moreno’s polling numbers, a tactic frequently observed in Trump’s previous endorsements.

Dolan has gained key endorsements from Governor Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman, positioning himself as a “governing conservative” despite being in the GOP establishment lane. Taylor says his victory could potentially change the dynamics of the general election, posing a stronger challenge to Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.

Public polling indicates a close race, with Moreno at 29% and Dolan at 27%, and a significant portion of voters still undecided. Moreno’s absence from major media markets and Dolan’s aggressive campaigning, particularly focusing on immigration and crime issues, have kept the race tight, Taylor observes.

The Club for Growth has targeted Dolan, indicating they view him as Moreno’s main competitor. Meanwhile, a super PAC funded by conservative donor Dick Uihlein has attacked Moreno, potentially aiding Dolan’s campaign.

Trump’s rally could impact turnout, with Dolan leading among early voters but Moreno expected to fare better among Election Day voters. An internal poll for Moreno’s campaign shows him leading by 10 points, with his lead expanding when voters are informed of Trump’s endorsement.

Taylor notes the election outcome hinges on factors such as voter turnout, regional support, and whether Secretary of State Frank LaRose’s voters shift to Dolan or Moreno. Despite Trump’s endorsement, its impact may not be widely known among voters due to timing and voter fatigue from previous elections.

Moreno still has multiple paths to victory, Taylor says, especially if his campaign continues to highlight Trump’s endorsement. The race could mirror the 2022 primary, where Dolan gained late momentum but finished third in a larger field. However, she concludes that with only three candidates this time, the dynamics could shift based on LaRose’s voters and their preferences for DeWine and Portman’s favored candidate.

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