China Hikes Tariffs on U.S. to 125% Effective Saturday, Says It Will Stop There

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, April 11, 2025

— Financial markets today: Global stocks closed out a bruising week with fresh losses on Friday, as escalating trade tensions and a sharp bond market selloff rattled investor confidence and raised fears of a global recession. Equity markets across Europe, Asia, and the U.S. (futures) posted broad declines as the realization of a full-blown trade war set in. In Asia, Japan -3%. Hong Kong +1.1%. China +0.5%. India +1.8%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.7%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.9%.

The U.S. dollar slumped to a 10-year low (see related item below) against the Swiss franc and a six-month low versus the Japanese yen, as investors fled to traditional safe havens. The euro jumped 1.7% to $1.13855, its highest level since February 2022. The 30-year Treasury bond is more stable, but is on track for its worst week since the 1980s, according to Deutsche Bank research. Gold hit another record high, underscoring investor anxiety and demand for crisis-era safe assets. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, is trading around $60. Its significant drop this week is being cheered on by the White House, but could exacerbate the trade deficit, Bloomberg Opinion’s Javier Blas writes.

— Market turmoil raises alarm as investors flee U.S. assets. Market volatility is intensifying amid a rare simultaneous sell-off in the U.S. dollar, equities, and long-dated Treasury bonds — a signal some analysts interpret as early signs of capital flight. Despite the turbulence, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the situation Thursday, saying he saw “nothing unusual” in recent swings. But analysts disagree. “This is extreme, especially in the United States,” several noted, pointing to growing investor unease over the inflationary impact of new tariffs.

Berenberg economist Andrew Wishart warned that tariffs are “squeezing margins and reducing household real incomes,” forecasting that 10-year Treasury yields could climb to 4.8%, up from 4.4% as of this morning.

The bond market reaction appears to have rattled the White House. According to multiple reports, the recent plunge prompted the Trump administration to pause most of its reciprocal tariffs — a significant shift.

The move also raised concerns about the erosion of President Trump’s so-called “Trump put,” a term used to describe his willingness to reverse economic policies under market pressure. With his negotiating hand weakened, analysts say, U.S. trading partners may now be emboldened to press for concessions rather than face unilateral demands. “The only way for Trump to get out of this predicament,” one strategist noted, “might be to walk away from the fight entirely.”

— Scrutiny grows over tariff reversal trading surge. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has formally asked the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate whether President Trump or his associates violated securities laws during the abrupt reversal of global tariffs announced Wednesday, the New York Times reports. The move came after an extraordinary surge in markets — the S&P 500 jumped more than 7% in minutes following Trump’s post declaring “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” and his announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs.

“It is unclear which officials and affiliates of President Trump had advance knowledge of his plans to delay tariffs — but insiders may have known,” Warren wrote in her letter to the SEC, joined by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

The timing of Trump’s announcement has raised red flags across Capitol Hill. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) also urged the SEC and the Government Accountability Office to investigate, pointing specifically to a spike in call option purchases — a financial bet on rising stock prices — just before the news broke. “The timing and scale of the call option purchases would suggest that an official of the administration, or perhaps the President himself, provided friends or associates with a heads up,” Waters wrote.

While the market reaction was swift, some financial analysts cautioned against jumping to conclusions. “Speed is not illegal,” said Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers, adding: “Just because I can’t find a smoking gun doesn’t mean there wasn’t one.”

For now, the SEC has not confirmed whether it will open a formal inquiry.

Equities yesterday:

(Exchanges)

— Treasury: FY 2025 deficit hits $1.3 trillion, interest costs surge. The U.S. Treasury Dept. reported that the federal budget deficit for the first half of fiscal year (FY) 2025 has climbed to $1.3 trillion, surpassing the $1.1 trillion level recorded at this point in FY 2024.

March snapshot:

• Receipts: $368 billion
• Outlays: $528 billion
• Monthly deficit: $160 billion

Six-month totals (Oct–Mar):

• Total receipts: $2.26 trillion
• Total outlays: $3.57 trillion
• Net borrowing: $600 billion (down from $1.2 trillion in FY 2024)

Despite the rising deficit, Treasury noted that borrowing has been substantially lower than last year thanks to a $500 billion drawdown in cash reserves to help finance spending.

Leading spending categories:

• Social Security: $775 billion
• Net interest on debt: $489 billion (now the second-largest budget item)

This monthly recap follows a similar report issued earlier this week by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), underscoring growing fiscal pressure from rising interest costs and entitlement spending.

— Economic implications of the U.S. dollar’s decline for the U.S. economy and U.S. ag sector. The recent decline in the U.S. dollar has far-reaching implications for the American economy, creating both opportunities and challenges across various sectors, including the business of agriculture.

Positive Economic Effects

• Enhanced export competitiveness: A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more affordable and attractive in international markets, potentially stimulating economic growth (although the recent Trump tariffs are an important caveat). American exporters can maintain the same foreign currency prices while increasing their domestic currency revenues, effectively boosting their profit margins.
• Benefits for multinational corporations: U.S. companies with significant overseas operations experience amplified earnings when foreign profits are converted back to a weaker dollar. This creates investment opportunities for shareholders in American multinational corporations that generate substantial international revenue.
• Manufacturing resilience: When the dollar remains consistently weak over extended periods, U.S. multinationals may be incentivized to maintain or expand domestic manufacturing operations rather than offshoring them. This can create positive employment effects and strengthen local supply chains, benefiting the broader U.S. economy.

Negative Economic Effects

• Reduced consumer purchasing power: A declining dollar diminishes Americans’ international purchasing power, increasing the cost of imported goods and services. This effect is magnified in the current environment with the implementation of new tariffs in 2025, with Budget Lab modeling suggesting a 2.3% rise in consumer prices, equivalent to an average household purchasing power loss of $3,800.
• Inflation risks: The weakening dollar creates inflationary pressure by making imports more expensive. When combined with the current tariff policies, this raises concerns about potential “stagflation” — the problematic combination of slow economic growth and elevated inflation.
• GDP impact: Economic modeling suggests significant negative effects on U.S. economic output, with real GDP growth projected to be 0.9 percentage points lower in 2025 due to the combined effect of dollar weakness and tariffs. In the long run, the U.S. economy is estimated to be persistently 0.6% smaller than it would have been otherwise, representing approximately $180 billion annually in lost economic output.

Implications for Global Dollar Status

• Threat to reserve currency position: The dollar’s prolonged decline could potentially undermine its status as the world’s primary reserve currency. This phenomenon of “de-dollarization” — where nations reduce their reliance on the dollar for reserves and international transactions — might lead to higher interest rates and increased government borrowing costs, potentially diminishing America’s global economic influence.
• Changing capital flows: Negative sentiment surrounding the dollar has begun reversing capital flows into U.S. assets, with evidence of investment shifting from American markets to international alternatives. U.S. stocks have declined approximately 8% this year, while shares in markets like Germany and Hong Kong have gained around 12%.
• Investment landscape changes: The devaluation creates a complex investment environment where U.S. equities face headwinds from potential foreign divestment, while also creating upward pressure on real yields due to reduced international demand for U.S. fixed income assets. While a structurally weaker dollar could theoretically enhance U.S. competitiveness, it may simultaneously reduce foreign direct investment in the American economy.

The decline of the U.S. dollar has mixed implications for the agricultural sector and farmers, affecting exports, input costs, and overall profitability:

Positive Impacts

• Improved export competitiveness: A weaker dollar makes U.S. agricultural products more affordable for international buyers, potentially boosting demand for key exports like corn, soybeans, beef, and poultry. For example, exports to Mexico have increased due to the dollar’s depreciation against the peso. (Again, this positive impact has been tempered by the current Trump tariffs and resulting retaliation by some countries.)
• Higher farm revenues from exports: Farmers can benefit from increased foreign sales revenue when converted back into dollars, especially if export volumes rise.

Negative Impacts

• Rising input costs: A weaker dollar increases the cost of imported farm inputs like fertilizers, machinery, and chemicals. Tariffs on imports from countries such as Canada and China exacerbate these costs, further straining farmers’ budgets.
• Inflationary pressures: Higher costs for imported goods contribute to inflation, which impacts farmers’ operational expenses and reduces purchasing power for equipment and supplies.
• Commodity price challenges: Despite potential export gains, global competition (e.g., Brazil’s soybean production) and falling commodity prices have led to declining profit margins for farmers.

Trade deficit concerns: The agricultural trade deficit is projected to reach a record $49 billion in 2025 due to stagnant exports and rising imports. This widening gap reflects reduced competitiveness in global markets despite the dollar’s decline.

U.S. farmer financial strain: Farmers are facing financial pressure from elevated production costs (labor, fuel, shipping) and lower commodity prices. Many are borrowing more to manage expenses as profits continue to decline. Additionally, tariffs on U.S. exports have led to retaliatory measures by trading partners like China, further reducing demand for American products such as pork, wheat, and corn.

Policy uncertainty: Trade policies under the Trump administration — including new tariffs — add volatility to the agricultural economy. While disaster assistance programs are providing temporary relief in 2025, long-term solutions like stronger farm bill safety nets are needed to stabilize farmer incomes amid ongoing market challenges.

In summary, while a weaker dollar can boost export competitiveness for U.S. agriculture, rising input costs and trade policy uncertainties present significant challenges for farmers navigating an increasingly volatile market environment.

Bottom line: The dollar’s trajectory will ultimately depend on how the U.S. economy responds to current trade policies, with the higher yields on U.S. bonds compared to other government securities remaining an important attraction for international investors despite the currency’s challenges.

(ICE, FactSet, NYT )

— Ag markets today:

• Grains continue to show resilience. Corn, soybeans and wheat traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but are higher and near their session highs this morning, despite the escalating U.S./China tariffs war. As of 7:30 a.m. CT, corn futures were trading around a penny higher, soybeans were unchanged to 4 cents higher, winter wheat markets were 7 to 9 cents higher and spring wheat was mostly 4 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index was down nearly 1,200 points, plunging to the lowest level since April 2022 (see item above on impact of a lower dollar).
• Futures pull cash cattle sharply lower. Cattle futures continue to closely follow activity in the stock market amid recessionary concerns and potential implications for beef demand. Recent heavy selling in cattle futures has dragged cash cattle prices lower, with most activity through Thursday $4.00-plus lower than week-ago.
• Cash hog fundamentals continue to weaken. Pork cutout fell another $1.06 to $89.70 on Thursday. The CME lean hog index is down another 33 cents to $87.67 as of April 9. April lean hog futures, which expire next Monday and are settled against the index for April 16, finished Thursday $1.67 below today’s cash quote. May hogs hold a $1.17 discount, while June hogs currently have only a $5.505 premium.

— Ag trade: South Korea purchased 34,632 MT of rice, mainly to be sourced from the United States. Bangladesh purchased 50,000 MT of optional origin non-basmati parboiled rice.

— U.S. export sales data continues to show subdued China activity. USDA Export Sales data for the week ended April 3 included activity of net sales of 244 metric tons of sorghum, net sales of 141,280 metric tons of soybeans, net reductions of 1,841 running bales of upland cotton. For 2025, there were net reductions of 51 metric tons of beef and 43 metric tons of pork. Outstanding sales totals stand at 100 metric tons of corn, 298 metric tons of sorghum, 395,515 metric tons of soybeans, 78,119 running bales of upland cotton, 10,803 metric tons of beef, and 20,738 metric tons of pork.

— Cotton AWP eases but remains above LDP trigger. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton is at 53.10 cents per pound, effective today (April 11), down from 55.22 cents per pound the prior week. But the AWP remains above the level of 52 cents — an AWP under that level would trigger a loan deficiency payment (LDP) under the farm program.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

(Exchanges)

— Oil prices were stable on Friday but on track for their second weekly loss in a row against a backdrop of investor concern over the burgeoning trade war between the United States and China. Brent crude futures were down 3 cents, 0.05%, at $63.30 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 2 cents, 0.03%, at $60.09.

— Oil prices tumbled Thursday, erasing the previous session’s gains, as optimism over a brief pause in U.S. tariffs faded and fears reignited around the escalating U.S./China trade war. WTI crude dropped $2.28 (–3.7%) to $60.07/barrel. Brent crude fell $2.15 (–3.3%) to $63.33/barrel. Markets initially rallied after President Trump paused tariffs on several U.S. trading partners. However, that relief quickly vanished when the administration hiked tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, prompting Beijing to retaliate with an 84% levy on U.S. goods. Tariff tensions are already hitting energy flows. China’s imports of U.S. crude fell to 112,000 bpd in March, down from 190,000 bpd a year ago (Kpler data). Analysts at Ritterbusch & Associates warned that reduced Chinese buying could lead to a buildup in U.S. storage, dragging prices further. U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels, nearly twice what analysts expected. The EIA cut its forecasts for both global growth and oil demand, citing trade friction as the key headwind.

— GOP rift widens over clean energy tax credits in budget talks. A sharp divide has emerged within the Republican Party over whether to repeal clean energy tax incentives included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), complicating efforts to pass a unified budget reconciliation package. Four Republican senators — Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Thom Tillis (N.C.), John Curtis (Utah), and Jerry Moran (Kan.) — sent a letter (link) to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) urging him not to support a full repeal of the IRA’s clean energy tax credits. They argue that eliminating the credits would:

• Disrupt ongoing energy projects
• Jeopardize private-sector investment in domestic manufacturing
• Raise utility costs for consumers
• Undermine U.S. competitiveness in energy innovation

Of note: These senators also noted that clean energy subsidies are already generating economic benefits in their home states and across the country.

House conservatives pushing for full repeal. Hardline House conservatives, particularly Rep. Chip Roy (R-Tex.), have demanded a complete repeal of what Roy calls “green scam” subsidies as a precondition for supporting any reconciliation deal. Roy and allies see the IRA’s climate incentives as a symbol of excessive federal spending and have made their repeal central to President Trump’s second-term policy blueprint.

Growing factionalism in the GOP. A similar divide is forming in the House, where a growing number of Republicans — particularly those representing districts with large renewable energy investments — are resisting efforts to scrap the tax credits. This rift is now a major obstacle for GOP leadership seeking to pass a partisan budget bill without Democratic votes.

Bottom line: With internal disagreements on energy policy and fiscal priorities, Republican leaders face a difficult balancing act: reconciling party divisions while preserving enough support to pass key elements of their legislative agenda.

— NGFA warns trade disruptions cost U.S. agriculture global market share. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) issued a sobering analysis this week, warning that U.S. agriculture continues to suffer long-term consequences whenever trade policy is weaponized. According to NGFA, historical precedent shows that when the U.S. restricts agricultural exports, global competitors step in — often permanently. “History is clear: when the United States uses trade policy to restrict agricultural exports, U.S. agriculture pays the price,” the NGFA stated.

The group pointed to several notable examples:

• 1979 Soviet grain embargo: Following the Carter administration’s embargo, U.S. grain and oilseed production plunged by 12%—a loss of 39 million metric tons. In response, global competitors increased production by 27 million tons. “It was America’s decision to prohibit grain exports in the late ‘70s that forced food-deficit countries to invest in South American grain production – giving rise to today’s greatest competitors,” NGFA wrote. Over the next decade, as the U.S. implemented the Conservation Reserve Program and dealt with lingering export fallout, global competitors added 187 million tons to their annual production while U.S. output declined further.
• 2018–2019 tariff retaliation: Echoing past outcomes, U.S. grain production fell by 42 million tons in 2019 after retaliatory tariffs from China and the European Union took hold. The rest of the world increased output by a nearly identical amount to fill the market void.

NGFA emphasized that these outcomes are not historical flukes — they are repeating patterns. “Whether it is Carter’s grain policies or modern-day trade wars, the result is the same: U.S. agriculture surrenders market share, and competitors – especially in South America – step in to stay.”

The association confirmed it has shared this analysis directly with U.S. policymakers as trade tensions continue to roil agricultural markets.

— Deepening trade fight with China poses new threat to U.S. farmers. A renewed and escalating U.S./China trade war has American farmers on edge as China hiked tariffs on all U.S. goods to 125%, just one day after President Trump raised duties on Chinese imports to 145%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent responded with a stark dismissal: “So what?” the New York Times reported (link).

But farm leaders say the consequences are anything but trivial. “We still bear scars from the last trade war,” warned Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky soybean farmer and president of the American Soybean Association. “If we continue to be used as a negotiating tool... we’re going to have to have an economic package to help us keep the lights on,” he told the Times.

The NYT emphasized the stakes for agriculture-heavy states that helped propel Trump to victory. China is the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, and in past trade battles, it turned to Brazil and other sources when faced with tariffs.

Despite Secretary Bessent’s claim that “China can raise their tariffs, but so what?,” U.S. corn and soybean groups are sounding alarms. Kenneth Hartman Jr. of the National Corn Growers Association said, “Our farmers want certainty that our customers at home and abroad will buy our products in the months and years ahead.”

The tension was also evident on Capitol Hill, where U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer fielded tough questions during a House hearing. Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) cautioned, “When we get into a trade war, usually the first pawn... is agriculture.”

Greer tried to downplay concerns, saying most countries weren’t retaliating and that some, like Vietnam, are reducing tariffs on U.S. farm goods. He did not acknowledge that Europe and Canada have already retaliated, the Times noted.

Back at the White House, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested farmer aid is on the table again, as it was during the 2018-2019 trade war when Trump authorized $28 billion in relief payments. She assured the Cabinet: “No one understands [Trump’s vision] better than our farmers and our ranchers.”

President Trump remained vague on the outlook but said he expected a positive outcome: “We’ll end up working out something that’s very good for both countries.”

However, the New York Times concluded that many in the farming sector remain skeptical, and increasingly desperate. As tariff retaliation deepens, the sector faces “a particularly hard economic blow”, one that may push smaller operations over the brink.

“If this lasts long term, we’re going to have a significant number of farmers going out of business.” — Caleb Ragland, American Soybean Association.

(White House, NYT )

— Courts may be key to stopping Trump tariffs amid congressional gridlock. U.S. markets tumbled yesterday as fears intensified over President Trump’s sweeping tariffs and the threat of a prolonged economic conflict with China. With Congress largely unable to rein in the measures, legal experts say the courts may ultimately decide the fate of the tariffs. “The argument should be, can the president do this?” said Paul Sracic, a politics professor at Youngstown State University, noting the Constitution grants Congress — not the president — the power to impose levies.

Though some bipartisan efforts are underway in Congress — including a Senate measure that would give lawmakers a 60-day review window on new tariffs — those bills face resistance in the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said this week that the House will give Trump “space” to implement his trade strategy. Even if passed, Trump is expected to veto such legislation, and a two-thirds vote in both chambers would be required to override it.

Legal action is already taking shape:

• The New Civil Liberties Alliance, a libertarian nonprofit backed in part by the Koch Foundation, has filed suit challenging Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods.
• The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is weighing its own challenge, according to Fortune.
• The Retail Industry Leaders Association has considered legal action but held off to avoid political backlash, Bloomberg reports.

At issue is Trump’s reliance on a 1977 emergency powers law. He has cited drug trafficking from China and the U.S. trade deficit as threats to national security. Critics argue that the statute does not permit such sweeping economic actions and raises non-delegation concerns.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board joined the pushback, writing: “Someone should sue to block his abuse of power.”

The Supreme Court’s “major questions doctrine” could be pivotal here, some analysts note, as it limits executive action on significant economic or political issues unless Congress has clearly authorized it.

— Maryland governor blasts Trump tariffs, touts pro-growth trade vision ahead of Asia trip. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) launched a sharp critique of former President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff strategy while previewing his own international economic vision ahead of a major trade mission to Asia. Speaking to reporters Thursday, Moore positioned his trip as both a defensive and offensive strategy—protecting Marylanders from rising costs while carving out long-term growth through tech-sector diplomacy. “Everything will get more expensive on everybody,” Moore warned, especially farmers on the state’s Eastern Shore. He labeled Trump’s tariffs a “national sales tax” that will hit wallets nationwide.

While careful not to reject tariffs wholesale, Moore emphasized the need for state-level partnerships to sidestep federal uncertainty. His approach targets tech-forward sectors — AI, cybersecurity, defense, and quantum technology — as keys to economic resilience and growth.

Though Moore insists he’s focused on Maryland, speculation continues about a potential 2028 presidential bid. His nuanced approach — criticizing Trump’s execution while keeping policy tools like tariffs on the table — may reflect early positioning for a national stage. “I absolutely think tariffs are a tool, but I don’t think they’re an ideology,” he said.

Moore’s trade push and state-level strategy reflect growing concern among Democratic governors about the national economic fallout of rising trade tensions, particularly as U.S. companies scramble to adjust global supply chains in response to new tariffs.

— GOP budget plan clears Congress, paving way for tax cuts and debt limit hike, and possibly some new farm bill provisions. Congress finalized the fiscal year (FY) 2025 budget resolution (HConRes. 14) on Thursday, April 10, setting the stage for Republicans to use reconciliation to pass sweeping changes to tax, immigration, border, energy, and defense policy — without Democratic support. The House passed the resolution 216-214, following Senate approval 51-48 on April 5.

The measure directs committees in both chambers to begin drafting legislation aligned with President Trump’s key priorities, while also laying the groundwork for a significant increase in the debt limit and potential new tax cuts.

If GOP leaders agree, some important new farm bill provisions could be included in the reconciliation package, including an increase for reference prices and some positive crop insurance program changes.

Reconciliation path forward

• Deadline for Committees: May 9
• House and Senate budget panels will package proposals into a single reconciliation bill, avoiding the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster.

Key differences between chambers could complicate negotiations.

(Congress)

Of note: Politico reports that to seal a deal to approve the GOP’s crucial budget plan, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told Republican holdouts in a private meeting Wednesday night that they could oust him from the speakership if he doesn’t follow through with his fiscal promises. Johnson reportedly pledged to abide by the House budget instructions, including $1.5 trillion minimum in spending cuts, for the domestic policy measure that Republicans are now pursuing on party lines after Thursday’s successful vote.

Scoring controversy: Senate Republicans want to use a “current policy baseline” (assumes tax cuts are permanent), a move Budget Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) says is allowed under budget law. Critics, including Senate Democrats, say this is a budget gimmick and violates statutory scoring rules.

The Congressional Budget Office said extending the 2017 tax law could increase deficits by ~$4 trillion over 10 years.

Of note: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La) is committed to at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts. Senate GOP Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) supports spending restraint but stopped short of a hard pledge.

President Trump pushed for debt limit hike via reconciliation to avoid a summer default showdown.

Debt ceiling ticking clock

• Debt limit reset Jan. 2 at $36.1 trillion.
• Treasury’s extraordinary measures likely expire May–September.
• CBO projects a default deadline as early as August.

Reserve fund powers. The resolution grants broad flexibility to Budget Chairmen to:

• Adjust allocations for reconciliation-related bills.
• Score legislation under favorable baselines.
• Accommodate deficit-neutral moves that extend entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid.

Fiscal outlook
Senate projection: ~$936B deficit in FY 2025, rising to $1.4 trillion by 2034.
House projection: FY 2025 deficit starts at $2.2T, flatlining for a decade.

Not used as framework for FY 2025 appropriations, which were already resolved via a continuing resolution.

Notable GOP “no” votes:

• Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky)
• Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine)
• Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.)
• Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.)

— Angie Craig inches closer to Senate launch amid statewide tour. Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) appears to be edging toward a bid for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, Punchbowl News reports, as she embarks on a town hall blitz across GOP-leaning parts of the state. In an interview with Punchbowl News, Craig confirmed she’s just “weeks away” from announcing her decision on entering the race to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.). “I work with Brad Finstad, Tom Emmer, Michelle Fischbach and Pete Stauber when I can on specific policy issues that are right for Minnesota, but it’s chicken shit not to show up and do a town hall to your constituents,” Craig told Punchbowl News, taking direct aim at Minnesota Republicans.

Craig’s travel schedule over the next two weeks will take her beyond her home base in Minnesota’s 2nd District into districts represented by Republicans, as she aims to criticize Donald Trump’s economic record and emphasize her bipartisan credentials. “My entire philosophy as a member of Congress has been to support an administration when I believe they’re right for the people of Minnesota,” she said, in a clear attempt to pitch herself as an independent-minded Democrat.

Craig, who flipped a GOP-held seat in 2018 and has held on through multiple tight re-election battles, was elected as the top Democrat on the House Ag Committee in 2024 — a notable achievement for a lawmaker from a swing district. Punchbowl News noted her rapid rise within the Democratic caucus, calling her “a top contender” if she enters the Senate race.

Should Craig run, she’ll face stiff primary competition from Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who has already locked down endorsements from former Sen. Al Franken and Attorney General Keith Ellison. Punchbowl News highlighted that Flanagan has already held “kitchen table conversations” in all eight of Minnesota’s congressional districts.

While early polling shows Flanagan leading Craig by a sizable margin, Punchbowl News suggests that could shift quickly if Craig leverages her strong fundraising base and name recognition to mount an aggressive statewide ad campaign.

— FSIS delays salmonella sampling for stuffed chicken products until November. USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is postponing its plan to begin sampling not-ready-to-eat (NRTE) breaded stuffed chicken products for Salmonella. The original start date of May 1, 2025, has now been pushed back to Nov. 3, 2025, the agency announced in a Federal Register notice (link).

Key reasons for the delay include:

• Finalizing instructions for FSIS inspectors.
• Preparing inspection staff and laboratories for new testing procedures.
• Providing updated industry guidance on holding and controlling products while awaiting sampling results.
• Allowing newly appointed leadership after January 20, 2025, to review and offer policy input on the sampling program and guidance materials.

As a result, affected establishments will also have until Nov. 3, 2025, to reassess their Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) plans for these products.

FSIS first informed the industry of this initiative on May 1, 2024, and says the additional time will ensure a smoother and more informed rollout.

— Senators push USDA to expand bird flu strategy to cover turkeys, dairy cows. Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) are calling on USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to broaden the USDA’s response to the avian flu crisis, emphasizing the unique challenges facing the turkey and dairy industries amid what experts are calling the largest animal disease outbreak in U.S. history. In a bipartisan letter (link), the senators acknowledged USDA’s February 2025 strategic plan as a good starting point, but warned it falls short in addressing the specific needs of turkey farmers and dairy producers. They pressed for:

• Enhanced biosecurity protocols customized for poultry and dairy operations
• Accelerated vaccine development and approval, particularly for dairy cattle
• Clear trade frameworks to prevent international barriers due to vaccine use
• Timelines for coverage of turkey and dairy sectors in USDA’s strategy

The push follows the 2024 emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle — an unprecedented cross-species jump. The virus has now been confirmed in nearly 1,000 dairy herds across 17 states and has affected more than 18.6 million turkeys.

The senators urged USDA to update Congress on how it plans to integrate these concerns and prevent further devastation. The outbreak has not only battered producers but also contributed to sharp price increases in eggs, dairy, and poultry products.

— Panama Canal traffic slows in March amid lingering drought effects. The Panama Canal saw an average of 33.7 ships per day in March 2025, totaling 1,045 transits, according to a bulletin from the Panama Canal Authority. This represents a slight dip from 34.8 ships per day in February, after a January low of 32.6. Despite the rebound from earlier drought-related limits, transits remain below the 36-vessel daily maximum reinstated last year. This comes even as transit fees are 15% lower compared to 2024.

Drought fallout lingers: Restrictions stemming from a severe drought in late 2023 and early 2024 continue to impact capacity and scheduling. Prior backlogs and pricing constraints had global supply chain ripple effects.

Geopolitical scrutiny rising: The Panama Canal’s fee structure and foreign operator presence have drawn attention from President Donald Trump, who earlier this year threatened U.S. intervention over concerns about Chinese and Hong Kong-linked firms near the waterway.

Green shipping incentives coming: In a strategic environmental move, the authority announced a net-zero weekly transit slot beginning October for dual-fuel, low-carbon vessels. The initiative aims to promote energy efficiency and cleaner fuels.

Outlook: While traffic remains below peak throughput, Reuters reports the Canal’s focus on sustainability and mounting geopolitical scrutiny could reshape future operations. Eyes will stay on both Washington and Beijing amid strategic control concerns — and on precipitation patterns that may determine the Canal’s return to full utilization.

— Chinese exchanges restrict daily stock sales as U.S. trade war escalates. Chinese exchanges have set daily restrictions on net share sales by hedge funds and large retail investors, four sources told Reuters, as Beijing steps up support for its stock markets in an intensifying trade war with the United States. Two investor sources said a soft limit on daily net sales by individual hedge funds and big retail investors – implemented through verbal warnings from brokerages – had been set at 50 million yuan ($6.83 million). Failure to comply risked a suspension of trading accounts by the stock exchanges, which have issued the directive, two brokerage sources said.

— Trump floats legal path for undocumented farm workers to temporarily exit and re-enter U.S. President Donald Trump is considering a plan to allow undocumented workers in agriculture and hospitality to voluntarily leave the U.S. and return legally after a brief period abroad — potentially around 60 days. Announced during a Cabinet meeting, the proposal aims to ease labor shortages caused by intensified deportation policies. “We’re going to work with them… on trying to get them back in legally,” Trump said, framing it as a solution to retain essential workers while reinforcing legal migration processes. Businesses could vouch for workers’ return, especially in farming and service sectors, which rely heavily on immigrant labor.

Foreign-born workers now account for nearly 20% of the U.S. workforce, but around 50% of the U.S. ag sector workforce, and their removal could lead to severe labor shortages, disrupting food production and increasing costs for farmers and consumers. Business leaders and agricultural groups have urged the administration to expand work visa programs, such as the H-2A and H-2B programs, to mitigate these effects. Despite these concerns, Trump’s policies continue to prioritize border security and deportation efforts, and until the Cabinet meeting on Thursday, with limited acknowledgment of their potential repercussions on agriculture.

Trump said he would work with business to protect needed workers, saying “we have to take care of our farmers and hotels and, you know, various, various places where they’re using, where they need the people… We’re also going to work with farmers that if they have strong recommendations for their farms for certain people, we’re going to let them stay in for a while and work with the farmers and then come back and go through a process, a legal process,” Trump said.

While Trump maintains that immigration depresses wages, the proposal signals a potential softening aimed at supporting industries hit hardest by labor gaps. Business leaders have voiced growing concern over worker shortages amid aggressive enforcement actions and voluntary deportation campaigns.

Upshot: This marks a nuanced shift in Trump’s hardline immigration stance — balancing deportation rhetoric with economic realities.

— NWS outlook: Stormy weather from the Mid-Atlantic into New England, with late season accumulating snows possible in the higher elevations from northeast Pennsylvania into eastern New York and central to northern New England... ...Cold front moving through the West will bring chances for thunderstorms and enhanced fire risk to the Intermountain West and Plains... ...Record warmth expected through the weekend across the Southwest, Great Basin, and Texas.

(NWS)

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