China Back in Market for U.S. Cotton; Additional Sales of Sorghum

U.S. jobs report more upbeat than expected | RFS details expected today

China back in market for U.S. cotton. USDA weekly Export Sales data for the week ended May 26 showed net sales of U.S. cotton for both old- and new-crop delivery with additional sales of sorghum but cancellations of old-crop soybean sales. Net sales activity for 2021-22 included sales of 62,806 tonnes of corn, 65,665 tonnes of sorghum, cancellations of 72,232 tonnes of soybeans and net sales of 144,741 running bales of upland cotton. The only activity reported for 2022-23 was sales of 88,184 running bales of upland cotton. Net sales for 2022 of 4,772 tonnes of beef and 8,988 tonnes of pork were also reported.

USDA daily export sale: 101,600 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021-2022 marketing year.

Today is the day the EPA by a court mandate will finally announce various year details of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and other related issues. Meanwhile, USDA today released more details (link) of the $700 million taxpayers are providing to restore biofuel markets hit by the pandemic. The only major new element is payments to 195 biofuel production facilities to “support the maintenance and viability of a significant market for agricultural producers of products such as corn, soybean or biomass that supply biofuel production. These biofuel producers experienced unexpected market losses on a combined 3.7 billion gallons as a result of Covid–19.”

Today is Day 100 of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — with no end in sight. That is why any predictions of renewed grain exports out of Ukraine and grain production in the country is very unclear. Ukraine says 20% of nation in Putin’s grip while the West races to bolster Kyiv with advanced arms as Russia appears close to taking the key city of Severodonetsk. Data on Ukraine suggest a staggering loss of population that imperils the country’s postwar recovery.

The U.S. issued Russia sanctions targeting more elites, among them a cellist, a steel billionaire and a yacht magnate, while the EU scrapped plans to sanction the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, a key Vladimir Putin ally.

Hurdles galore in getting grain, other products exported from Ukraine. Some of the problems are detailed in the Russia/Ukraine section. Meanwhile, Poland is racing to speed up the flow of grain from Ukraine with only weeks left before the wheat harvest begins.

Global food prices eased but are still near recent record high via the lastest U.N. FAO tally. Details below.

The European Union is considering a proposal to channel about 500 million euros to Africa to help tackle the continent’s food crisis as the Russian invasion of Ukraine cuts off vital supplies.

Hormel Foods warned that an escalating bird-flu outbreak in the U.S. could squeeze turkey supply starting this quarter.

OPEC+ announced a boost to oil output Thursday. Even though it was larger than expected, the 648,000 barrel-per-day increase (compared with 432,000 bpd each month per an earlier pledge) may not be enough to offset missing Russian barrels in the global market, some analysts note. Perspective: 648,000 barrels is equivalent to 0.7% of daily global demand and most OPEC members (except Saudi Arabia and the UAE) are already pumping at capacity.

Soaring coal prices are threatening to push up energy costs this summer — details in market section. Futures for coal delivered to northwestern Europe have risen 137% so far this year, the benchmark price in the Pacific region is up 143%, and cash prices in central Appalachia have climbed 40%.

The Fed isn’t likely to pause its rate hikes anytime soon, Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Thursday. The economy still has a lot of momentum: “Right now, it’s very hard to see the case for a pause.”

On the farm policy front, we provide USDA links below to questions and answers regarding the Emergency Relief Program (formerly WHIP+) and a fact sheet on the program. Another item in the Policy section includes Senate Ag Committee Republicans’ analysis of CBO’s May baseline relative to the ag sector.

President Biden urged Congress to reinstate the ban on assault weapons or raise the age to buy one.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings. Markets in the U.K., Hong Kong and China were closed for holidays. Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark struggled to hold on to gains, with volumes reduced by U.K. holidays marking the Queen’s Jubilee. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 1.3% higher, while South Korea’s Kospi added 0.4%.

U.S. equities yesterday: U.S. equities finished with solid advances after a weaker start. The Dow rose 435.05 points, 1.33%, at 33,248.28. The Nasdaq gained 322.44 points, 2.69%, at 12,316.90. The S&P 500 moved up 75.59 points, 1.84%, at 4,176.82.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: July corn futures fell 1 cent to $7.30 1/4, the contract’s lowest settlement since April 1, while December corn gained 2 3/4 cents to $6.94 1/4.
• Soy complex: July soybeans rose 39 cents to $17.29 1/4, while November soybeans gained 26 1/2 cents to $15.41 3/4. July soymeal rose $2.20 to $414.90. July soyoil rose 333 points to 81.44 cents.
• Wheat: July SRW wheat rose 17 cents to $10.58 1/4. July HRW wheat rose 15 1/4 cents to $11.43 1/2. July spring wheat rose 2 1/2 cents to $11.99 1/2.
• Cotton: July futures climbed 305 points to 139.11 cents per pound, while December climbed 167 points to 120.10.
• Cattle: August live cattle rose $1.225 to $134.125, the contract’s highest closing price since May 11. August feeder futures rose $3.25 to $172.95.
• Hogs: July lean hogs fell 25 cents to $112.175, after hitting a five-week high earlier. The next CME lean hog index is expected to rise 12 cents to $105.03, the benchmark’s 10th gain in 11 days.
  

Ag markets today: Two-sided trade was seen in grain and soy futures overnight, but markets are softening this morning, led lower by soybeans and soyoil. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading narrowly mixed, soybeans were 7 to 10 cents lower, SRW wheat futures were 6 to 7 cents lower, HRW wheat futures were narrowly mixed and HRS wheat was mostly 6 to 8 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were around 35 cents lower and the U.S. dollar index was near unchanged.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 328,000 in May and the unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 3.5% from 3.6% one month earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET) For an update see below.
• USDA Weekly Export Sales report, 8:30 a.m. ET.
• S&P Global’s U.S. services index for May is expected to hold at 53.5, unchanged from a preliminary reading. (9:45 a.m. ET)
• Institute for Supply Management’s services index is expected to fall to 56.7 in May from 57.1 one month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)
• Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Lael Brainard speaks on the Community Reinvestment Act at 10:30 a.m. ET.
• Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1 p.m. ET.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report, 3:30 p.m. ET.

U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, above expectations of 328,000 but less than the upwardly revised 436,000 positions created during the previous period. It was the 17th straight monthly gain. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%, the Labor Department said Friday. Employers added more than 400,000 jobs a month for 12 consecutive months, the longest period of such strong employment growth in records dating back to 1939.

Average hourly earnings in May rose 0.3%, which was 5.2% on an annual basis. That is slightly slower than the 5.5% pace registered in April. The slight drop could signal that inflation is getting under control.

Labor force participation rate was 62.3% (from April’s 62.2%) and is still 1.1 percentage points under the level in February 2020. Any consistent increase could mean the labor market is coming back into balance.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has a “super bad feeling” about the economy and plans to cut about 10% of the electric carmaker’s 100,000 jobs, he said in an email to executives titled “pause all hiring worldwide.”

Meanwhile, Ford Motor plans to add 6,200 union manufacturing jobs and invest $3.7 billion into plants in Michigan, Ohio and Missouri, as it looks to expand vehicle production and prepare for coming labor talks.

Brainard: Sept. rate pause would be hard. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said expectations for half-percentage-point increases in interest rates this month and next were reasonable and saw no case for pausing the central bank’s tightening campaign afterward. “From where I sit today, market pricing for 50 basis points, potentially in June and July, from the data we have in hand today, seems like a reasonable path,” Brainard said Thursday in an interview with CNBC. “Right now, it’s very hard to see the case for a pause. We’ve still got a lot of work to do to get inflation down to our 2% target.”

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is slightly up in early trading. Yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticked up to 2.920% from 2.914% Thursday. Futures for Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, edged down 0.3% to $117.24 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $116.57 a barrel. Gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,867.90 an ounce.

• OPEC+ will pump more oil. The Saudi-led cartel of oil producing nations and their allies agreed to increase daily production by nearly 650,000 barrels in July and August. The move precedes a planned visit from President Biden who has thawed U.S./Saudi relations to seek lower oil prices. Under the agreement between the 13-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 10 non-OPEC producers led by Russia, the group known as OPEC+ will raise output by 648,000 barrels a day in July and in August. That increases OPEC+’s production about 50% more than previously planned, though some analysts are skeptical that the group will meet its targets.

• Gas, diesel prices hit another record, will keep climbing. The national average retail price of regular unleaded gasoline reached a record $4.761 today, according to AAA, up 16 cents from a week-ago and $1.72 (56.5%) above last year. The average price of diesel reached a record $5.581, up nearly $2.40 (75.2%) from last year. The average gasoline price topped $6 in California, while Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska, Hawaii and Illinois all had averages above $5. The cheapest average gas price is in Georgia at $4.221. Industry sources say demand isn’t falling as low as supply, signaling high prices aren’t curbing usage. Gasoline prices will continue to push higher until demand slows.

• National Economic Council Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti revealed that the White House was considering a “windfall” profits tax for U.S. oil and gas producers, following a similar tax announcement in the U.K. and a proposal in the U.S. Senate. However, some strategists caution against taxing “windfall” profits in good times as it could discourage investment in the cyclical energy cycle and intensify prices at the pump.

• Coal prices are surging as demand for the fuel heats up around the world. Futures prices for coal have grown by triple digits in Europe and the Pacific region this year, and the cash price in central Appalachia has more than doubled since last year to the highest level on record. The Wall Street Journal reports (link) the increases have come as European buyers stock up ahead of a ban on Russian coal and stockpiles at U.S. power plants remain at their lowest levels in decades. Power-plant coal inventories were about 44% below the 13-year average in March. There’s little relief on the horizon. Although coal production is expected to rise this year, utilities face challenges finding the fuel, given the congestion at railheads and ports. Financing for speculative coal production has also dried up in recent years, and miners now sell most of their output in advance. “A lot of the mining companies are very close, if they’re not already, to being sold out for this year,” says Andy Blumenfeld of McCloskey by OPIS, a pricing service that is part of Dow Jones, on coal inventories

• NWS weather: Showers and thunderstorms to impact the southern and eastern U.S. today with cooler temperatures arriving to end the week... ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over the southern tip of Florida through Saturday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Central/Southern High Plains through Saturday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the southern tip of Florida Saturday through Sunday morning.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Mostly weaker near end of overnight trade
• Belarus ready to discuss transit of Ukrainian grain (details in Russia/Ukraine section)
• French wheat crop ratings continue to deteriorate
• Another big jump in Russian wheat export tax
• ‘All options’ to be considered in U.S. review of tariffs on China
• Another big day of beef movement
• Cash hog index bounces back

— Summary: Russian forces advanced deep into the ruined eastern factory city of Sievierodonetsk, as Russia’s assault on its neighbor entered its 100th day. Analysts say Russia has begun to slowly but steadily take control of key cities in the Donbas region. Western officials pledged another round of military aid, including long-range missile systems, though the weapons will take weeks to arrive. To the south, Russia now controls the majority of Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea, with the exception of the port city of Odessa.

Data: Institute for the Study of War; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios

• Russia controls one-fifth of Ukraine. As the war neared its 100th day, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces had seized 20 percent of his nation’s territory. Ukraine claimed a counteroffensive had made gains in the south, while Moscow tried to encircle a key city in the east. Link to details via the NYT.

• ‘Definitely sick': Putin has cancer, likely survived assassination attempt, U.S. intelligence community believes, according to Newsweek. The U.S. intelligence community believes that Vladimir Putin’s health is suffering, and that he’s being treated for cancer, according to a Newsweek report (link). The assessment, attributed by Newsweek to high-ranking officials at three separate intelligence agencies, comes after months of speculation that the Russian strongman is suffering from terminal ailments. “Putin is definitely sick,” an official from the office of the Director of National Intelligence told the outlet, while noting, “whether he’s going to die soon is mere speculation.” Two other officials — one from the Defense Intelligence Agency and one retired Air Force officer — also claimed to have access to a comprehensive intelligence assessment of Putin’s health, and said the outlook for the Russian leader is bleak, according to the report.
• War of attrition. Speaking with reporters Thursday after meeting with President Biden at the White House, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called the conflict in Ukraine a “war of attrition” and said the alliance was preparing for the “long haul” when it came to helping Ukraine fight off Russia, as the Washington Post reports (link).

• U.S. announces more sanctions. The U.S. added 71 entities based in Russia and Belarus to the Entity List that prohibits American firms from doing business with them without getting a government license. The U.S. Treasury Dept. also announced a new round of sanctions targeting what it said were yachts linked to Vladimir Putin as well as allies of the Russian president, in the latest set of penalties over the war in Ukraine.
• Russia/AU talks. Senegalese President Macky Sall heads to Sochi today to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the “liberation of the stocks of grain and fertilizers,” Sall’s office said on Thursday as rising food prices driven by the war in Ukraine hit home on the African continent. Sall, who also serves as head of the African Union (AU), is also expected to discuss AU/Russia ties.
  

— Market impacts:

• Hurdles galore in getting grain out of Ukraine. Here a few of them cited by Bloomberg:

  • Naval escorts, but there are differences about this possible option.
  • Possible overland to the Baltic. The task is complicated by a dearth of truck drivers and the fact that the Soviets used a wider track gauge than the European standard.
  • Ports in Romania and Poland are backed up with traffic or at capacity. Trade officials warn that bottlenecks will get worse as the rest of Europe starts harvesting its wheat next month.

• Belarus ready to discuss transit of Ukrainian grain. Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko said Minsk was ready to discuss the possible transit of Ukraine’s grain via his country, with some “compromises.” Local newspaper Belarus Today quoted Lukashenko as saying, “Now everyone is looking for logistics... Okay, we can talk. We do not mind: bring it through Belarus, but there must be compromises,” without specifying what compromises he sought. Exports from Ukraine via Belarus have been one of the options in wide discussions led by the United Nations which aim to boost global grain supply. Unblocking of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports is another option. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cautioned earlier this week that any agreement to unblock shipments of commodities from the region was still a ways off because “the fact that everything is interlinked makes the negotiation particularly complex.” Moscow and Minsk have blamed Western sanctions for disrupting exports of grains and fertilizers. The problem is caused by “the policies that the West and the rich countries, especially the United States, are pursuing today,” Lukashenko was quoted by news agency Belta as saying.
• Russians are paying higher prices and seeking substitutes for certain goods to cope with the impact of international sanctions. Inventories for many businesses are running low and prices for some scarce products like car parts are up seven times. The Wall Street Journal reports (link) that the situation will likely get worse as Russia’s economy is carved away from global supply chains. Equipment for screening airline passengers and luggage is approaching the end of its authorized lifespan, a group of airports says. The government can either keep using the equipment or search passengers by hand. Stores, meanwhile, are draining their inventories of toilet bowls, faucets and sinks. The shortages have emerged as a real-world indicator of the impact of Western sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, and the challenges the country faces as its new deficit economy takes shape.

— ERP questions and answers. USDA officials will continue to update Emergency Relief Program (ERP) frequently asked questions website which can be found at this link. Also, link to USDA/FSA fact sheet on the ERP.

Meanwhile, here is an updated formula payment explanation from Combest, Sell & Associates:

Estimated ERP Payment (Box 11) = Target Revenue minus (-) calculated revenue

Target revenue is the “Expected Value of the Crop” (APH x Price Guarantee) multiplied by the relevant “ERP factor”.

Calculated revenue is the sum of “Actual Value” (realized production x price) plus any “Crop Insurance Proceeds” (MPCI, SCO, ECO, STAX, etc.) less or minus “Producer Premiums and Administration Fees”.

The “Estimated ERP Payment” in Box 11 of the FSA Form 520 is the difference between this target revenue and calculated revenue.

— Reviewing CBO’s May 2022 baseline from an ag sector perspective. Key takeaways according to Senate Ag Committee Republicans:

• For the 10-year period beginning in fiscal year 2023 the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects total outlays for USDA Mandatory Farm Programs and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program at more than $1.3 trillion, an increase of nearly 30% or $285 billion from the July 2021 baseline projections.
• For farm bill purposes, the Committee on the Budget will determine what baseline the next farm bill is scored against, i.e., the May 2022 baseline or a spring 2023 baseline. Based on the May 2022 baseline, and if current projections hold, the 2023 Farm Bill will be the first trillion-dollar-farm bill in history.
• The large increase in spending is due to the administration’s revaluation of the Thrifty Food Plan which resulted in a 27% increase in SNAP benefits. Compared to the July 2021 baseline, total SNAP outlays are projected at $1.1 trillion, an increase of $290 billion over 10 years.
• Total outlays for commodity programs, e.g., Price Loss Coverage, Agriculture Risk Coverage, or Export Assistance Programs, are projected at $61 billion, an increase of 3% or $1.9 billion from the July 2021 baseline. Crop Insurance outlays, including program delivery costs and premium cost-sharing, are projected to be $80 billion, $15 billion lower than the July baseline. Conservation program spending is projected at $59 billion and flat compared to the previous baseline.

— White House will finally pay its interns. Starting in September, federal interns will be paid $21.43 per hour. A release said the change will “remove barriers to equal opportunity for low-income students and first-generation professionals.”

— China’s Taiwan warning. China’s foreign ministry spokesman has criticized the U.S. for beginning new trade talks with Taiwan, which started on Wednesday. Zhao Lijian said the talks “disrupt peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” and urged Washington to “stop negotiating agreements with Taiwan that have sovereign connotations and official nature.”

— China is poised to launch its newest, most advanced aircraft carrier, new satellite imagery reviewed by the Wall Street Journal shows, a major step that will enable its navy to expand its military operations. The country’s third carrier, known as a Type 003, uses new electromagnetic catapult-technology akin to what the U.S. and French carriers have to launch aircraft. It is also the first designed by China from the ground up.

— Germany declined Volkswagen’s request to renew risk insurance for the car maker’s operations in China, citing Beijing’s human-rights record.

— Biden administration is considering “all options” as it reviews potential changes to U.S. duties on Chinese imports, including tariff relief and new trade investigations in a shift of focus to strategic concerns with Beijing, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi said.

— Details released re: U.S. agreement on U.K. steel, aluminum tariffs. Today’s Federal Register includes information on removing tariffs on imports of steel (link) and aluminum (link) from the U.K. and places tariff rate quotas (TRQs) covering those imports. The U.K. suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods put in place in response to the U.S. tariffs. The new TRQs took effect June 1.

— California plan to cut gas cars. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has big emissions reduction goals that nothing short of a clean “new industrial revolution” can fulfill, Chair Liane Randolph said. The board will begin hearings June 9 on rules to phase out gas-powered cars by 2035, adopt complementary clean fleet rules transition to zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles by 2040, and attain federal ambient ozone standards by 2037.

— Some upbeat news for EV makers. A big stumbling block for widespread adoption of electric vehicles is the shortage of metals used to make EV batteries. But EV makers got a dose of positive news from a Goldman Sachs research note predicting that battery metal prices will crash over the next two years as a surplus reins in skyrocketing costs. However, the respite probably won’t last. Global consumption of battery metals will only keep rising, the analysts predict, and by the end of the decade demand will catch up with supply and push prices up again.

— Global food prices ease but still near recent record high. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) global food price index eased for a second straight month after hitting a record high in March but was still 22.8% above year-ago. Declines in the price of vegoils, dairy and sugar more than offset increases in cereal grains and meat. Compared to year-ago, prices surged 13.6% for meat, 16.9% for dairy, 29.7% for cereal grains, 31.1% for vegoils and 12.6% for sugar.

— Bird flu is curbing turkey supplies in the U.S. Starting in the third quarter, there will be “large supply gaps” for Jennie-O branded turkey products, parent company Hormel Foods warned Thursday. The shortages anticipated in the coming months come as one of the worst-ever avian influenza outbreaks wipes out flocks across the U.S. Midwest.

— Summary:

• Global cases at 530,742,543 with 6,294,852 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 84,444,990 with 1,007,703 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 587,821,662 doses administered, 221,350,544 have been fully vaccinated, or 67.18% of the U.S. population.

— Pfizer and partner BioNTech asked U.S. health regulators to authorize three doses of their vaccine for children under 5. FDA clearance could come before the end of the month.

— The congressional inquiry into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by then-President Donald Trump’s supporters enters a new phase next week, kicking off a series of public hearings with a prime-time presentation aimed at focusing attention on that day’s violence.

— Biden prods Congress on curbing firearms. Addressing the nation on recent mass shootings, he promised reforms are “not about taking away anyone’s guns.” Although the House can pass bills without any Republican support, GOP backing is crucial in the Senate for any measure to pass. The package includes provisions to:

• raise the age to purchase a semiautomatic rifle from 18 to 21;
• make the import, sale, manufacture, transfer and possession of restricted ammunition magazines a new federal offense;
• crack down on gun trafficking and straw purchasers, and authorize seizure of the property and proceeds;
• establish safe storage requirements for residences, with criminal penalties for violations;
• build on the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ regulatory bans on bump stocks and so-called ghost guns.

— U.S. relaxes travel to Cuba. Commercial airlines and public charter flights will again be allowed to fly to Cuban destinations beyond Havana after the Transportation Department on Wednesday issued an order rescinding Trump-era restrictions.

— North Korea talks. Three-way talks on North Korea between Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. take place today in Seoul, with U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Sung Kim joining his Japanese and South Korean counterparts. The meeting follows remarks from U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Tuesday, in which she said the U.S. would pursue additional sanctions against Pyongyang if it conducted a nuclear weapons test.

— Cotton AWP declines. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton eased to 135.36 cents per pound, effective today (June 3), down from 139.86 cents the prior week. The AWP has remained $1 per pound through 2022. Meanwhile, USDA announced that Special Import Quota #7 will be established for 45,462 bales of Upland cotton, applying to supplies purchased not later than Sept. 6 and entered into the U.S. not later than Dec. 5.