CBO Expected to Release Score of House Farm Bill Proposals This Week

House out, Senate to depart after short week | FOMC | Employment report | Harris VP

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July 28, 2024 10:37 AM

The Week Ahead: July 28, 2024

— On Thursday, the voting process to officially name Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee is expected to begin. Voting will be conducted by electronic ballots sent to convention delegates, and party officials have said their goal is to nominate presidential and vice-presidential candidates by Aug. 7.

— Bruce Mehlman’s “Six Chart Sunday” (link) highlights a “relief rally” among Democrats following President Biden’s decision to drop out of the race and endorse Vice President Harris. According to the Wall Street Journal, a recent poll shows that roughly four out of five voters in each party are now enthusiastic about their chosen candidate, reversing the previous enthusiasm deficit among Democrats earlier this month.

— A new Wall Street Journal poll (link) reveals that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are effectively tied in the presidential race following President Joe Biden’s exit, which has significantly altered the political landscape. This neck-and-neck status underscores the competitive nature of the upcoming election and highlights the uncertainty surrounding the race. Some 81% of respondents in the WSJ poll, conducted July 23 to 25, said Harris being a Black woman, and of South Asian descent, made no difference in whether they would support her.

— Some U.S. farmers are concerned about comments former President Donald Trump made at a recent rally in Michigan. Trump said: “So we got to get back to commonsense. The aircraft, too. They want to make our jet fighters [use] a biofuel that shows 18% less efficiency. That’s the difference between winning and losing a fight. You know what happens? I say I’m not doing it. We ended all of that stuff. They brought it back. We will end it on day one. We’re not going to be doing that stuff.”

— President Joe Biden does not need to resign for Vice President Kamala Harris to be on a state’s ballot as a presidential candidate. A vice president can run for president while still holding their current office. The process for getting on the ballot involves meeting state-specific filing requirements and deadlines, which are independent of the current president’s status.

— Harris challenged Trump to join her for a previously scheduled debate on Sept. 10, now that Biden has dropped out. Trump’s campaign said those plans can’t be finalized until her party formally picks its nominee.

— Robert Zoellick, a former top official in the George H.W. Bush administration. gives Harris advice on how a vice president can get the White House post. Link

— Harris pledges not to raise taxes on middle class: Politico. She pledged not to raise taxes on those making under $400,000 a year if she’s elected president, Politico reports, citing her campaign. The promise extends President Biden’s economic agenda, arguing that corporations and the wealthy should pay a greater share of the tax burden, Politico reports

— Harris’ campaign announced that she does not support a ban on fracking, reversing her previous stance from 2019 when she was a presidential candidate. This shift in position has become a focal point for Republicans, especially in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state and significant natural gas producer. Donald Trump highlighted Harris’ past anti-fracking statements at a recent rally in North Carolina, claiming her opposition would lead to higher costs for Americans. Harris’ campaign spokeswoman, Lauren Hitt, countered these claims, emphasizing the Biden/Harris administration’s record of creating 300,000 jobs in the energy sector and maintaining high levels of domestic energy production. Hitt also pointed to climate change legislation passed under President Biden as evidence of their balanced approach to energy policy.

Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is a technique used to extract oil and gas from dense rock formations and is prevalent in approximately 95% of U.S. wells. Environmental groups oppose fracking due to concerns about groundwater contamination and the broader impact of fossil fuel use.

In 2019, during a CNN presidential candidate forum, Harris had unequivocally supported banning fracking, starting with public lands and advocating for necessary legislation. However, while a president can use executive power to halt fracking on federal lands, banning it on private land would require an act of Congress due to a 2005 law limiting the Environmental Protection Agency’s regulatory power over fracking.

— In 2018, then-Sen. Harris voted against Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s first term as Fed chair, aligning with other Democrats who were preparing presidential bids at the time. She opposed major Republican initiatives like the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. She also voted against the ratification of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and opposed banking regulation amendments in the Dodd-Frank Act.

— A 10-page memo was sent by Kamala Harris’ national security adviser, Phil Gordon, to national security professionals. It aimed to highlight Harris’ “strong record on foreign policy and national security.” Key aspects of Harris’ foreign policy experience mentioned in the memo include:

· Meeting with over 150 world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping.

· Having six meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

· Conducting important diplomatic trips to Asia and a “historic” one to Africa.

· Being “deeply involved” in the Biden administration’s response to the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel.

· Participating in more than 20 calls between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The memo emphasized Harris’ role in “restoring U.S. global leadership around the world” alongside President Biden. It highlighted her involvement in key foreign policy decisions, such as the U.S. response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel in April. The document also noted Harris’ advocacy for addressing the humanitarian situation in Gaza and her efforts to keep Palestinian perspectives in the forefront of policymaking.

The memo appears to be part of a strategic effort to bolster Harris’ foreign policy credentials as she begins her campaign against former President Donald Trump.

— Tony Fabrizio, Donald Trump’s pollster, has cautioned about a potential “Harris honeymoon” period, where Kamala Harris might initially show gains or even lead Trump in the polls. Fabrizio believes this surge will be temporary. In contrast, Harris’s campaign disputes this outlook. Jen O’Malley Dillon, Harris’s campaign chair, highlighted that about 7% of voters remain undecided, and these voters are predominantly Black, Latino, and under 30. Additionally, they are twice as likely to be Democrats as Republicans, suggesting a potential advantage for Harris.

— Harris VP sweepstakes. Selecting a running mate is the first independent decision a presidential candidate can make. Harris is expected to select a VP by Aug. 7, to align with the party’s plan to virtually nominate a ticket by that date. According to Bloomberg, people familiar with the process say a short list has emerged including three elected officials with nationwide appeal: Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Some possibilities, according to Inside Elections:

• Roy Cooper, a 67-year-old North Carolinian, is serving his second term as governor and has a close relationship with Vice President Kamala Harris. They were both attorneys general from 2010 to 2016, and Harris has campaigned with him twice recently. He hails from North Carolina, a key battleground state. Cooper has a solid electoral record with four wins as attorney general and two as governor, even when other Democrats struggled. He won the state in 2016 and 2020, despite Trump winning at the top of the ticket. Cooper is in the final months of his term, so his election as vice president would not affect his current position. The race to replace him is a tight contest between Democrat Josh Stein and Republican Mark Robinson. A potential complication is North Carolina’s state law, which mandates that the lieutenant governor assumes the governor’s duties when the governor is out of state. This means that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a Republican, would take charge if Cooper is out campaigning. This situation worries some Democrats, though historically, Robinson has not taken any major actions in Cooper’s absence.

• Mark Kelly, a 60-year-old former astronaut and Navy pilot, recently completed back-to-back Senate campaigns in Arizona. His compelling backstory, as well as his significant fundraising capabilities (raising $190 million for his Senate campaigns in 2020 and 2022), makes him a strong potential running mate for Harris. Kelly’s background and connections could strengthen the Harris ticket, especially in the swing state of Arizona. His inspirational biography, along with his marriage to former Rep. Gabby Giffords, adds to his appeal. A successful Harris/Kelly campaign in Arizona could also benefit Rep. Ruben Gallego in his Senate race against Republican Kari Lake for the seat vacated by Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Some labor groups are concerned about Kelly’s past lack of support for the pro-union PRO Act, though he has since expressed his support for it. If Kelly were elected vice president, his replacement would be appointed by Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, triggering a Senate special election in 2026. This would continue Arizona’s trend of hosting Senate races every cycle from 2016 through 2030, a challenging situation for Democrats who need to maintain control of the Senate, especially if they lose the presidential race.

• Josh Shapiro, the current governor of Pennsylvania and former state attorney general, won a significant victory in the 2022 gubernatorial race, outperforming the Democratic presidential nominee in his attorney general elections in both 2016 and 2020. His electoral success in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, could significantly benefit the Democratic ticket. However, Shapiro’s moderate positions on charter schools and his support for Israel may cause friction with the left wing of the party. Nonetheless, these stances might make him more appealing to a broader electorate in a general election. If Shapiro were elected vice president, his lieutenant governor, Democrat Austin Davis, would take over as governor until 2026. This transition would, however, place the position of lieutenant governor in the hands of Republican state Sen. Kim Ward, who would have the power to preside over the state Senate and break ties, given the Republicans’ current 28-22 seat majority.

• Andy Beshear, 46, recently secured his second and final term as Kentucky governor in 2023. As the last Democrat holding statewide office in Kentucky, Beshear has shown a unique ability to appeal to Republican voters while still advocating for progressive policies. His political skills are notable, though gubernatorial races differ significantly from federal contests. Beshear’s Appalachian accent, his habit of quoting Bible verses, and his willingness to challenge J.D. Vance over his portrayal of Kentucky in “Hillbilly Elegy” add to his appeal. If Beshear were elected vice president, Democratic Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman would become the governor until the 2027 election. This could be advantageous for Kentucky Democrats, who face significant challenges and might benefit from having an incumbent in the governor’s office.

• Tim Walz, the two-term governor of Minnesota, is considered a dark horse for the vice-presidential pick. Walz, 60, is a former schoolteacher and Army National Guard veteran who served six terms in a swing House district before becoming governor of Minnesota. In his tenure as governor, he has successfully implemented numerous progressive policies, especially after Democrats gained control of the state legislature in the 2022 midterm elections. Walz has also demonstrated his readiness to challenge Republican figures like J.D. Vance on television. If chosen as vice president, his lieutenant governor, Peggy Flanagan, would become the first Native American woman to lead a state, marking a significant milestone in history.

• Gretchen Whitmer, the 52-year-old governor of Michigan, has publicly stated her intention to remain in Michigan, but she is still a viable candidate for the vice-presidential spot. Whitmer is well-liked in Michigan, a key state for Kamala Harris’ potential path to victory. A strong Harris/Whitmer ticket could also benefit Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in her crucial Senate race. If Whitmer were chosen as vice president and won, Democrats would retain control of the Michigan governorship, as Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist would complete the remainder of her term.

— Toss-up presidential election states and their electoral votes: Arizona (11) Georgia (16) Michigan (15) Nevada (6) Pennsylvania (19) Wisconsin (10)

— Can Kamala Harris win? That’s the question the Economist (link) poses in its latest weekly edition. Their bottom line: “Her task is to make the election a referendum on Mr. Trump, who is unpopular outside his devoted MAGA base. If, instead, the election is about the record of the Biden administration and her part in it, she is likely to lose. But for Ms. Harris to turn the spotlight onto Mr. Trump, she must also satisfy voters that she is equal to the job of president. Mr. Biden’s campaign was doomed because his infirmity kept the focus on him. Despite numerous appearances, he could not dispel the image of a stumbling, befuddled old man unfit to serve a second full term.”

WASHINGTON FOCUS

The House is out until Sept. 9, leaving just three weeks to avert a shutdown. The Senate is in this week, but history signals it could be a short session ahead of them leaving for the summer recess. It is fast becoming all politics, all the time. After this week, the House and Senate will be in session three more weeks, all in September, until after the Nov. 5 elections.

A stopgap funding bill, known as a continuing resolution or CR, to temporarily keep the gov’t funded, is now likely with the election fast approaching.

Fiscal year (FY) 2025 appropriations: The full House has cleared five of the twelve annual appropriations bills “required: to be fully enacted by Sept. 30. The full Senate has cleared zero. The House has cleared all twelve appropriations bills from Committee while the Senate Approps panel has cleared seven thus far and hopes to complete the balance this Thursday morning (link).

— Coming this week: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) score on the House Ag bill is expected to be released late this week. CBO scoring has been a topic in the House farm bill debate because of its initial scoring of various components of the House GOP plans. CBO analysts have no said much if anything about the Senate farm bill, likely because Senate Ag Chair has never released text, only 90 pages of notes.

— On the international front, Israel has vowed that Hezbollah will “pay the price” after holding the Lebanese militant group responsible for a rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which resulted in the deaths of 12 children. This incident has raised concerns about the potential for an all-out war in the region. On Saturday, July 27, a rocket struck a soccer field in the village of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, “We will not let this pass in silence,” and emphasized that the price Hezbollah would pay would be unlike anything they had faced before. Despite Israel’s accusations, Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the attack. In response to the attack, Israel launched airstrikes at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported striking “weapons caches and military infrastructure” deep inside Lebanon. The United States condemned the attack as “horrific” and reaffirmed its “iron-clad and unwavering” support for Israel’s security against Iranian-backed terrorist groups, including Hezbollah.

— Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday met with Chinese official Wang Yi on the sidelines of an international conference in Vientiane, Laos, to address significant points of contention between the United States and China. Blinken raised concerns about China’s support for Russia’s military industrial sector, emphasizing the United States’ core interest in defending Ukraine against Russian aggression. Wang Yi responded by asserting that China has not send weapons to Russia and maintained that China’s approach to Ukraine is transparent, advocating for peace and dialogue while opposing U.S. sanctions.

Blinken highlighted the possibility of progress in high-level military talks and cooperation against the narcotics trade. Wang acknowledged ongoing communications on issues like law enforcement and climate change but criticized the U.S. for its containment and suppression tactics against China.

Both officials also discussed various geopolitical issues, including the Gaza war, North Korea, Myanmar, and human rights in Tibet and Hong Kong. They noted a recent agreement between the Philippines and China to reduce tensions over the Second Thomas Shoal.

— Court vacates EPA denials of 2022 SREs. A federal appeals court vacated the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 2022 decisions to deny small refinery exemptions (SREs) from biofuel blending requirements under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. This decision has significant implications for the affected small refineries and the biofuel industry.

Background. In 2022, the EPA denied a substantial number of SRE petitions. Specifically:
• In April 2022, the EPA denied 36 SRE petitions for the 2018 compliance year, reversing exemptions granted by the previous administration.
• In June 2022, the EPA denied 69 additional SRE petitions for compliance years ranging from 2016 to 2021.

These denials were based on the EPA’s interpretation of the Clean Air Act’s provisions, which stipulate that SREs can only be granted if a refinery demonstrates that compliance with the RFS program causes disproportionate economic hardship.

Court’s decision. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit vacated and remanded the EPA’s denials of SRE petitions. The court’s opinion is currently sealed, but the judgment indicates that the court found in favor of the refining companies for most of the petitions, except for those from “Company A and Company B” whose petitions were denied.

Implications

For small refineries: The court’s decision means that the EPA will need to reconsider the denied petitions, potentially granting exemptions to small refineries that can demonstrate economic hardship due to RFS compliance.
For the biofuel industry: Biofuel industry leaders, including Growth Energy, the American Coalition for Ethanol, and the Renewable Fuels Association, expressed disappointment, arguing the EPA’s original denials were well-reasoned and consistent with the Clean Air Act.

Outlook. The court has given the parties involved until Aug. 5, 2024, to show cause why the opinion should not be unsealed, which means more details on the court’s reasoning could be available soon. This will provide further clarity on how the EPA should proceed with the reconsideration of the SRE petitions. Observers say the EPA will need to re-evaluate the petitions, potentially altering the landscape of the RFS program moving forward.

— Outbreak of bird flu, specifically the H5N1 avian influenza virus, has significantly impacted county fairs across the U.S., prompting various measures to mitigate the risk of spreading the virus among animals and humans. County fairs are adapting to the bird flu outbreak by implementing stringent biosecurity measures, adjusting operational protocols, and emphasizing public health guidelines to ensure the safety of both animals and visitors. These efforts aim to balance the continuation of traditional fair activities with the necessary precautions to prevent the spread of the virus. Here are the key ways county fairs are being affected:

Enhanced biosecurity measures

Testing requirements. Many fairs now require that all lactating dairy cows test negative for bird flu within a specific timeframe before the event. For example, the Nebraska State Fair mandates that all lactating dairy cows must test negative within seven days of their arrival at the fair. Similar measures are being implemented in Minnesota, where dairy cows must test negative for H5N1 four to seven days prior to the fair.
Hygiene and sanitation. State and local health officials are emphasizing the importance of handwashing and other hygiene practices. Visitors are encouraged to wash their hands thoroughly after interacting with animals and to avoid bringing strollers, pacifiers, or other items into animal areas. Signage reminding attendees of these precautions is also being increased.
Animal interaction restrictions. Some fairs have implemented restrictions on touching certain animals to reduce the risk of transmission. For instance, at the Oakland County Fair in Michigan, visitors are advised not to touch some animals, and biosecurity signage and handwashing stations are mandated.

Operational adjustments

Isolation and monitoring. Exhibitors are encouraged to avoid sharing equipment between animals from different herds and to isolate animals returning from fairs for at least two weeks to prevent the spread of the virus. Some fairs have rearranged their layouts to separate different types of animals, such as keeping dairy cows away from poultry.
Veterinary oversight. Fairs are required to have veterinarians on-site to monitor the health of the animals daily. In Wisconsin, for example, each fair lasting longer than 24 hours must work with a veterinarian to monitor animals and report any instances of illness.

Public health and safety

Low risk to humans. While the risk to public health is considered low, there have been a few cases of avian flu in humans, primarily among farm workers who had close contact with infected animals. Health officials continue to monitor the situation closely and recommend that people who have been in contact with livestock be vigilant about any symptoms and seek testing if necessary.
Educational efforts. Despite the challenges, fairs continue to serve as important educational opportunities. For example, the Oakland County Fair managed to maintain high attendance and poultry entries while implementing necessary safety measures, thus allowing 4-H participants to showcase their animals and educate the public.

— John Deere implemented another round of layoffs affecting salaried workers across multiple locations in Iowa. Here are the key details about the recent layoffs in Iowa (there were additional layoffs outside of Iowa, as noted below):

1. Total Iowa layoffs: The total number of John Deere employees laid off in Iowa reached 170 this week.

2. Affected locations:

Johnston: 67 employees at John Deere Financial
Waterloo: 69 employees at John Deere Waterloo Works
Dubuque: 34 employees at John Deere Dubuque Works

3. Timing: The layoffs were effective immediately on Wednesday, July 24, 2024.

4. Reasons for layoffs:

Declining customer demand
Rising operational and manufacturing costs
Prevailing economic uncertainties
20% decline in sales from 2023 to 2024

5. Severance package: John Deere is providing affected employees with:

Up to 12 months of severance pay based on years of service
Pro-rated pay based on short- and long-term cash incentives
Payment for unused vacation or paid time off
Ongoing access to health and wellness benefits
One year of professional job placement services

6. Context: These layoffs are part of a larger trend of workforce reductions at John Deere:

Since September 2023, nearly 2,000 workers have been laid off across various locations
In May 2024, Deere reported a 15% decline in revenue, marking the third straight quarter of year-over-year sales declines.

John Deere has made significant layoffs outside of Iowa, particularly in Illinois. Here are the key details of Illinois layoffs:

East Moline: 280 employees laid off from a factory primarily producing harvesting equipment such as combines, effective Aug. 30, 2024.
Moline: 280 employees laid off effective Aug. 30, 2024, with additional layoffs in May and June 2024.
Total layoffs in Illinois: Combining the layoffs from East Moline and Moline, the total number of layoffs in Illinois is 560 employees.

The company has not disclosed detailed information about executive-level layoffs or specific numbers for their headquarters. A statement from John Deere mentions “reductions in our global salaried workforce” without providing specific figures or job levels affected.

Perspective: Cory Reed, president of the company’s Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division for Production and Precision Ag, spoke publicly about the layoffs for the first time in an exclusive interview with U.S. Farm Report (link).

OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS

On Tuesday, the Senate’s Judiciary and Homeland and Government Affairs committees will hold a joint hearing on the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Witnesses will include FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate and acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe, who was tapped to lead the agency following the resignation of Kimberly Cheatle last week. The House also voted to create a bipartisan task force to investigate the shooting. The task force will be made up of seven Republicans and six Democrats and will have subpoena authority, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said.

Monday, July 29

· President Joe Biden travels to Texas to deliver remarks to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

· Election outlook. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “AEI Election Watch 2024: 100 Days to Go.”

· Small business outlook. PunchBowl News discussion on “Small Business, America’s Future,” focusing on “the small business ecosystem in Maryland and the state’s economic future.”

· Crypto data centers and climate. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies Environmental Law & Property Rights Practice Group virtual discussion on “Crypto, Data Centers, and Climate.”

· Venezuela elections. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “The Day After: Making Sense of Venezuela’s Presidential Election.”

Tuesday, July 30

· Trump assassination attempt. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee joint hearing on “Examination of the Security Failures Leading to the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump.” Acting U.S. Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe Jr. testifies.

· U.S./China competition. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on “Strategic Competition with the PRC (People’s Republic of China): Assessing U.S. Competitiveness Beyond the Indo-Pacific.”

· SEC meeting. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) virtual meeting to discuss rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.

· Renewable energy. Environmental and Energy Study Institute 2024 Congressional Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency EXPO and Policy forum.

· Taxes and economic development. Senate Finance Committee hearing on “Tax Tools for Local Economic Development.”

· Business growth and trade. Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Tourism, Trade, and Export Promotion Subcommittee hearing on “Enabling Rural Businesses to Grow at Home While Competing Abroad.”

· U.S. AI readiness. Brookings Institution discussion on “The State of U.S. AI Innovation and Readiness.”

· AI and DOE. Department of Energy virtual meeting of the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board for remarks from the Energy Department, discussion of a recommendation concerning powering AI and data center infrastructure and discussion of a recommendation concerning the role of the Energy Department in AI.

· U.S. seafood imports. Henry L. Stimson Center and FishWise virtual workshop on “Reimagining the U.S. Seafood Import Monitoring Program.”

· Greenhouse gas fund. Environmental Protection Agency virtual meeting of the Public Environmental Financial Advisory Board for mobilizing private capital across a single Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund priority sector, Net Zero Buildings, providing concrete examples of deals and transactions that have been successful.

· USAID and resilience. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Roadmap to Resilience: USAID’s (U.S. Agency for International Development) Updated Resilience Policy.”

· Senate confirmation process. Senate Rules and Administration Committee hearing on “Senate Procedures to Confirm Nominees.”

Wednesday, July 31

· EVs. Senate Budget Committee hearing on “Charging Ahead: The Future of Electric Vehicles.”

· Energy permitting reform. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee markup of S 4753, the “Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024.”

· Satellite imagery. Government Executive Media Group discussion on “Geo for Gov,” focusing on the ability to process near-real time amounts of satellite imagery.

· U.S. maritime issues. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Rebuilding America’s Maritime Strength.”

· Ukraine economic recovery. Brookings Institution discussion on “The Future of Ukraine’s Economic Recovery.”

· National Council of Farmer Cooperatives annual Washington conference, through Friday.

· Climate change issues. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion on “Rising Seas Triggered Climate Lawsuits: What Now?” focusing on appeals to international tribunals to address climate change.

· Local elections. National League of Cities virtual discussion on “Protecting and Securing Local Elections.”

· AI and the federal government. Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion on “Unlocking Artificial Intelligence’s Possibilities in Federal Government.”

· Supreme Court rulings. Common Good virtual discussion on “Power and Precedent: The Conservative Supreme Court’s Radical Rulings.”

· Investment issues. Axios discussion on “Investment for Improvement,” focusing on “how corporate investment in the economy can impact and reflect broader market trends, affect long-term inflation and drive financial growth for specific sectors and consumers.”

Thursday, Aug. 1

· FY 2025 Budget markups. Senate Appropriations Committee markup of the “Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act"; the “Department of Defense Appropriations Act"; the “Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act"; the “Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act"; and “Financial Services and General Government Appropriations Act.”

· U.S. energy future. The Hill discussion on “The Nuclear Frontier: Securing America’s Energy Future.”

· Inland waterways. Army, Corps of Engineers Department meeting of the Inland Waterways Users Board.

· Federal contracting. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on “Safeguarding the Homeland: Examining Conflicts of Interest in Federal Contracting to Protect America’s Future.”

· U.S. global influence. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on “Competing for Influence Around the Globe: Is the US Winning?”

· Taiwan energy transition. Hudson Institute virtual discussion, on “Taiwan’s Energy Transition.”

· Unfair and illegal pricing. Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission virtual meeting of the Strike Force on Unfair and Illegal Pricing to discuss enforcement actions taken to lower prices for Americans.

Friday, Aug. 2

· Gulf coast energy production. House Ways and Means Committee field hearing on “Rigs to Restoration: Examining Gulf Coast Restoration through Energy Production and Permitting.”

· National computer strategy. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Forging America’s Tech Future: The Need for a National Computing Strategy.”

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying U.S. inflation increased modestly in June, indicating that inflation is not rising rapidly. Meanwhile, consumer spending stayed strong, suggesting a healthy economy. These developments are encouraging for the Fed as it aims to reduce inflation without excessively slowing economic growth. The data has led investors to believe that the Fed will announce plans at its meeting this week (decision day Wednesday) to start easing its tight monetary policy in September, likely beginning with a quarter-point interest rate cut.

Monday, July 29

Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

Tuesday, July 30

Wednesday, July 31

Thursday, Aug. 1

Friday, Aug. 2

KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS

Ag sector focus: The United Nations’ monthly food price index will be out Friday. The Australian Grains Industry Conference will be held in Melbourne during the week.

Energy sector focus: Major energy companies including BP, Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron will report on earnings during the week. The OPEC+ alliance will assess the global oil market during online discussions on Thursday.

Monday, July 29

Ag reports and events: