Biden on Tuesday to Unveil Executive Order on Border, Migrant Issues

Dick Crowder | Israel ceasefire proposal | House farm bill | FY 2025 appropriations | Manchin | 45Z registration

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June 02, 2024 03:52 PM

Washington Focus

The House and Senate return this week to continue work on fiscal year (FY) 2025 appropriations bills.

— FY 2025 spending bills. Most of the work will come via congressional hearings for various gov’t departments and agencies. Several Biden Cabinet members are slated to testify, including EPA administrator Michael Regan and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

The FY 2025 Agriculture spending bill will be considered in the House Ag Appropriations Subcommittee June 11 and in the full Appropriations Committee on July 10.

— Lawmakers have filed over 350 amendments to the FY 2025 defense authorization bill, setting the stage for debates on various contentious issues when the legislation is discussed. The amendments cover a wide range of priorities, but it remains unclear which will be considered. The House is planning to address the NDAA during the week of June 10, following its bipartisan approval by the House Armed Services Committee on May 22 with a 57-1 vote. This annual must-pass bill (HR 8070) would authorize $895 billion in spending, adhering to budget caps set by lawmakers last year. The House Armed Services Committee report on the bill was released on Friday.

— House Republican appropriators are pushing for significant cuts to foreign aid, while Senate members prepare for a budget battle to mitigate the reductions. The House foreign aid bill will undergo subcommittee markup on Tuesday.

The House Appropriations Committee recently approved a revised FY 2025 State-Foreign Operations allocation, slashing the budget to $51.7 billion, an 11% cut from current levels and a substantial reduction for any spending category. This follows a nearly 6% cut from FY 2023 to 2024, making foreign aid the most reduced area across appropriations subcommittees, according to Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), a vocal opponent of the proposed cuts.

While some foreign aid programs received boosts through a national security supplemental in April, this funding is earmarked for specific crises in Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, and Taiwan, leaving little buffer for broader U.S. diplomacy and development programs.

The White House has requested $64.4 billion for FY 2025 international affairs, including programs in the State-Foreign Operations title and international development activities by the Treasury Department. However, House Republicans have criticized this request, particularly its focus on climate change and the use of mandatory funding for international development projects countering Chinese influence.

Despite the national security supplemental providing $9.2 billion for humanitarian aid and $200 million for operational funding, the money will be quickly allocated to address immediate crises, leaving little for ongoing needs. The White House has requested $10.3 billion for humanitarian aid for fiscal 2025 to support 330 million vulnerable people in over 70 countries.

House Republicans face opposition from Democrats and Senate Republicans who support international aid. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a key figure in the Senate’s foreign aid discussions, emphasized the importance of humanitarian aid in preventing destabilization and recruitment by terrorist groups. Graham argued that cutting foreign aid is counterproductive, as it helps prevent migration and pressure on neighboring countries. He stressed the importance of “soft power,” such as feeding people, to maintain global stability.

— 2024 House farm bill update. Most of the activity is behind the scenes as House Ag Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) continues to woo Democrats and even some Republicans to support the Ag Committee cleared farm bill.

The next key date will likely come in September with House focus before that on the FY 2025 appropriations measures. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will decide whether to bring the House farm bill to a chamber vote. If so, the next major development is House Rules Committee action. If there is no House vote prior to the time lawmakers break for Nov. 5 elections, a post-election lame duck session of Congress could still vote on the bill.

Another possibility is that should Republicans control the White House, House and Senate following Nov. 5 elections, a new farm bill or portions of it could become part of a budget reconciliation bill likely focusing on expired Trump tax cuts which expire after 2025.

As for the Senate farm bill version, most observers do not expect Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) to release text unless she sees the House floor likely to vote on its version. Sources say Stabenow believes the importance of negotiations before moving forward with a markup. She believes that releasing a detailed framework rather than the full text allows for more flexibility in discussions and helps in finding common ground with Republicans. Stabenow has indicated that she is waiting for Senate Republicans to release their priorities before finalizing her proposal. This approach allows her to respond to Republican concerns and potentially incorporate their feedback into the final bill, increasing the chances of bipartisan support. Senate Ag Ranking Member John Boozman (R-Ark.) sometimes this month is expected to release a summary of his farm bill ideas which are expected to align with the House farm bill version.

— Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), is set to testify Monday morning before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic. This is his first testimony since leaving government service at the end of 2022. Fauci’s last congressional testimony was in September 2022 before the Senate Health Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

Fauci is expected to face tough questions from Republicans regarding alleged misconduct at NIAID during his tenure. The focus will likely be on public records controversies, specifically related to communications with EcoHealth Alliance and handling of Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. Previously disclosed emails suggest attempts to evade public records laws, with senior NIAID official David Morens indicating ways to avoid FOIA scrutiny.

The hearing is expected to be contentious, with Republicans questioning Fauci’s leadership and handling of grants and oversight. Democrats are likely to defend Fauci, focusing on lessons learned from the pandemic and future public health improvements. Fauci has maintained that U.S. federal funding did not support gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

— Biden expected on Tuesday to announce an executive order on border issues. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) declined to give the Biden administration credit for its upcoming executive order on border security. The order, expected to be signed this week, aims to address immigration amid bipartisan criticism of Biden’s border policies. During an interview on Fox News Sunday, Johnson dismissed the efforts as “too little too late,” accusing Biden of creating the border crisis through specific actions taken over the past three and a half years. Johnson cited a list of 64 actions that he claims intentionally opened the border and had catastrophic effects.

Johnson and other House Republicans have consistently criticized Biden’s border policies, arguing that they have led to a surge in illegal immigration and the spread of fentanyl. In January, Johnson’s office released a list detailing these alleged actions. The anticipated executive order follows months of urging from Johnson and stalled border legislation in Congress.

As for the coming executive order, the Associated Press reports it would limit asylum requests and deny entrance to migrants once daily encounter thresholds are exceeded.

Johnson contended that Biden’s decision is driven by recent polls indicating that immigration is a top concern for Americans. He suggested that Biden’s move is a response to public pressure rather than a genuine effort to address the issue. Johnson criticized Biden for allegedly engineering the open border situation and highlighted the widespread public concern about this policy.

— The Senate will vote Wednesday on the Right to Contraception Act, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced as Democrats look to box in Republicans again over abortion and reproductive rights. In a “Dear Colleague” letter, Schumer said Senate Democrats plan to focus heavily on abortion throughout June, which marks two years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. “Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans will not be able to outrun their anti-abortion records,” Schumer said.

— IRS issues guidance on 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. The IRS on Friday issued new guidance (link) for biofuel producers on how to register for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. Producers are urged to register by July 15, 2024, to ensure applications are processed by the program start date, Jan. 1, 2025. Biofuel producers must list their primary feedstocks from separate entities or facilities. To qualify, producers must be registered as clean fuel producers at the time of production. SAF producers must be certified by a third party for supply-chain traceability. Farmers will need to provide detailed data on their farming practices and may enter contracts based on these practices.

Of note: The IRS guidance anticipates further clarification on the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model.

Credit amounts. The base credit amount is 20 cents per gallon for transportation fuel produced at a qualified facility. If the facility meets certain prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements, the credit increases to $1.00 per gallon. For sustainable aviation fuel, the base amount is 35 cents per gallon, and it increases to $1.75 per gallon if the facility meets the additional requirements.

— A changing world for trade patterns. Last week a conference “Understanding the New Dynamics of Agri-Food Trade” was sponsored by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The session made clear that agricultural trade is influenced by a myriad of factors, including subsidies, trade policies, geopolitical events, and market dynamics. This was also a topic briefly discussed on Friday’s AgriTalk (link).

While subsidies have played a crucial role in supporting agricultural production, there is a growing need to repurpose these funds to address broader goals such as climate change and food security, some at the conference said. However, achieving this, they said, requires navigating complex political and economic landscapes, particularly given the significant role of major subsidizers like China and India.

Upshot: The stability of global agricultural trade networks and the need for comprehensive reforms in international trade policies are critical to ensuring food security and sustainable agricultural practices worldwide, was the conclusion.

China’s agricultural subsidy policy aims to boost farmers’ enthusiasm for grain planting, ensure food security, and increase farmers’ income. Analysts said the policy has had a significant positive impact on the total sown area, total output, and total income of farmers, although the effects vary by region due to differences in geographic and economic conditions.

The global agricultural trade network is complex and vulnerable to disruptions caused by political risks, economic benefits, geographical distance, national relations, and cultural attributes. Stability is crucial for global food security.

International trade in agriculture has grown significantly over the past two decades, driven by technological advancements and trade policy shifts. However, geopolitical incidents and trade barriers pose challenges to this growth. The conference discussed the following:

Challenges in Agricultural Trade:

·Trade barriers, quality control regulations, market competition, political and economic instability, transportation, logistics, and supply chain management are significant challenges in the agricultural import-export business.

·The U.S. agricultural trade faces challenges from political and climate shocks, such as the U.S./China trade war and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which have disrupted trade in grains and fertilizers.

Repurposing Agricultural Subsidies:

·Former WTO head Pascal Lamy said, “repurposing was an issue when we were in a North-South fight,” referring to an earlier era when the United States and the European Union were the biggest subsidizers of agriculture. He also said, “China is now the biggest subsidizer, followed by India, with the United States in the No. 3 position and the European Union No. 4.” Lamy highlighted that repurposing subsidies is difficult due to the political and economic interests involved. He emphasized the need for a sustainable production policy that uses fewer resources and better seeds. “Repurposing is the new buzz word, but least developed countries have less to repurpose,” said Dr. Joe Glauber, former top USDA economist who is now a senior research fellow at IFPRI.

·Mari Elka Pangestu, a former Indonesian government and World Bank official, said that developing countries need a “sustainable production policy” involving less water, less fertilizer, less pesticide and better seeds. Glauber echoed Pangestu’s comments and mentioned how beneficial the dispute settlement system has been for U.S. agriculture.

Global Trade Dynamics:

·The U.S./China trade conflict has altered global trade flows, with China increasing its food imports from Brazil and other Belt and Road countries, with a multibillion-dollar decline in ag imports from the United States. Meanwhile, the U.S. has integrated more with Canada and Mexico.

·The World Trade Organization (WTO) needs comprehensive reforms to address these challenges, including improving the dispute settlement process and ensuring fair trade practices, Anabel González of the Inter-American Development Bank said. that the World Trade Organization needs reforms throughout the system, not just in the dispute settlement process.

Potential Solutions from Dr. Glauber:

Incentives should be provided for developed countries to repurpose support to meet LDC needs, such as increased R&D for orphan crops or improved infrastructure.
Current WTO rules exempt such spending from domestic support disciplines (green box), but lack incentives to encourage this spending.
Consider offsets for developed countries (e.g., meeting domestic support reduction requirements) for providing public goods or supporting R&D for crops in LDCs.

— Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has officially left the Democratic Party and registered as an independent. This significant political shift was announced on May 31, 2024, and has sparked widespread speculation about his future political plans and the broader implications for the U.S. Senate.

Manchin cited growing partisan extremism within both the Democratic and Republican parties as the primary reason for his departure. He expressed his disillusionment with the current state of national politics, where compromise and common ground have become increasingly elusive.

Manchin has stated that he will not seek re-election to the Senate or run for governor, a position he previously held. However, there is ongoing speculation about whether he might change his mind and run for office as an independent, particularly given the Aug. 1 deadline for independent candidates to declare their candidacies in West Virginia.

Manchin’s departure from the Democratic Party could have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate. As a centrist, he has often been a pivotal vote in a nearly equally divided Senate. Manchin will continue to caucus with the Democrats, according to his communications director Charlotte Laracy, similar to other independent senators like Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Angus King (Maine).

— The Ohio state legislature approved a bill on Friday allowing President Biden to be included on the state’s ballot, following the DNC’s announcement to nominate Biden virtually to meet Ohio’s ballot deadline. Despite the legislative approval, the DNC criticized Ohio Republicans for politicizing the process. “Ohio Republicans have been playing partisan games and trying to chip away at our democracy, while Democrats have been defending Ohioans’ right to vote,” said Hannah Muldavin, DNC senior spokesperson.

— Roll Call (link) reviews 10 House races to watch in Tuesday’s Primaries. Quick recap:

• Menendez Faces Challenger

Rep. Rob Menendez, son of indicted Sen. Bob Menendez, is up for renomination against Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla and businessman Kyle Jasey. Despite his father’s charges, Menendez focuses on his record and has significant support, including from Rep. Hakeem Jeffries and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Bhalla emphasizes his anti-corruption efforts as Hoboken mayor.

• GOP Seats Democrats Hope to Flip

In Iowa’s 1st District, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan aims to unseat Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who faces a primary challenge from David Pautsch. In Iowa’s 3rd District, Democrat Lanon Baccam vies to challenge GOP Rep. Zach Nunn. Montana’s 1st District sees Democrat Monica Tranel seeking a rematch against Rep. Ryan Zinke. In New Jersey’s 7th District, Rep. Thomas H. Kean Jr. faces Democrat Sue Altman.

• New Mexico Seat GOP Wants to Flip

Former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell will try to unseat Democrat Rep. Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico’s 2nd District. Both are preparing for a tight November race.

• Open Seats with Solid Ratings

In Montana’s 2nd District, several Republicans and Democrats compete to replace Rep. Matt Rosendale. In New Jersey’s 3rd District, a crowded Democratic primary aims to replace Rep. Andy Kim, who’s running for Senate.

• Primary Redo in New Jersey

Rep. Donald Payne Jr. will posthumously win the Democratic primary for the 10th District, with a special primary set for July to choose his replacement.

• South Dakota’s Sure Bet

Rep. Dusty Johnson is unopposed in the Republican primary, while Sheryl Johnson runs unopposed on the Democratic side for South Dakota’s at-large seat.

— The Economist: Pro-choice movement could boost Biden’s election chances. The pro-choice movement, spurred by the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, is emerging as a significant political force that could influence the upcoming presidential election and potentially help Joe Biden secure re-election, according to an article (link) in the current The Economist. The ruling, which returned the power to regulate abortion to individual states, has created a patchwork of laws that vary widely across the country. This has galvanized a grassroots movement, described as the most dynamic since Black Lives Matter in 2020 or the Tea Party a decade ago.

The movement’s immediate goal is to restore or expand abortion rights through state referendums. As many as 16 states could hold such referendums on the same day as the presidential election. The Economist notes, “Outrage has given rise to a grassroots political movement... Tens of thousands of volunteers have gathered millions of signatures to put abortion rules to state referendums.”

Despite initial setbacks, the movement has already achieved victories in unexpected places like Ohio and Kansas. The referendums not only give women a direct say in their reproductive rights but also have the potential to energize the Democratic base. This is crucial for Biden, who faces low enthusiasm among voters. “A mass movement in support of a goal his party shares ought to boost the turnout of Democrats,” The Economist explains.

The impact of these referendums could be significant in swing states such as Arizona and Nevada, where marginal centrist and left-leaning voters could be swayed to participate in the election. The Economist suggests, “In a tight race, even a modest boost could be decisive, and abortion seems likely to help the Biden campaign more than it harms it.”

However, the movement faces challenges. While some pro-choice Republicans may support legal abortion, they are also likely to vote for Donald Trump. The Economist warns, “Most will vote for legal abortion—and for Mr. Trump. Polls say that Mr. Biden is losing in the swing states. That suggests voters can separate their views on abortion from their party preference.”

Bottom line: Ultimately, while the pro-choice movement could provide a boost to Biden’s campaign, its broader significance lies in its participatory and grassroots nature. The Economist concludes, “It is not made up of keyboard warriors vying for attention online, but of people giving up their weekends and evenings to try to persuade their neighbors of an idea they hold deeply. It is participatory and local, the kind of thing that de Tocqueville raved about... It is how democracy in America is supposed to work.”

— A recent study by Just Facts has found that approximately 10% to 27% of non-citizen adults in the U.S. are illegally registered to vote. This translates to about 2 million to 5 million non-citizens being registered to vote, based on the 2022 U.S. Census data, which recorded around 19 million adult non-citizens living in the country.

The study suggests that this level of illegal voter registration could potentially influence the outcomes of major elections, including congressional seats and the presidency.

The methodology used in the study builds on previous research, incorporating enhanced techniques to address uncertainties, such as the likelihood of non-citizens falsely claiming citizenship in surveys. Despite these enhancements, the study acknowledges inherent uncertainties in estimating illegal actions like voter registration.

In contrast, other sources and experts have found little evidence of widespread voter fraud. For instance, a comprehensive fact-check by the Associated Press found fewer than 475 potential instances of voter fraud out of more than 25 million votes cast in the 2020 election. Additionally, various court rulings and investigations have consistently found no substantial evidence of voter fraud that could alter election outcomes.

Bottom line: While the Just Facts study highlights a significant potential for illegal voter registration among non-citizens, other sources emphasize the rarity of voter fraud and the robustness of election integrity measures. The debate over the impact of non-citizen voting remains contentious, with differing views on the prevalence and significance of such occurrences.

Other Events & Hearings

Monday, June 3

Agriculture economics, other issues. USDA Office of the Secretary meeting of the National Agricultural Research, Extension, Education, and Economics Advisory Board to continue to determine its advice and recommendations on the top priorities and policies for food and agricultural research, education, extension, and economics; runs through Tuesday.
U.S./EU trade with USTR Tai remarks. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “The Future for U.S./European Union (EU) Trade.” U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai delivers remarks.
Fauci investigation. House Oversight and Accountability Select Coronavirus Pandemic Subcommittee hearing on “A Hearing with Dr. Anthony Fauci.” The panel’s Democrats hold a session ahead of the hearing on the report covering an investigation into the Covid pandemic. Dr. Anthony Fauci testifies.
National Anti-Hunger Policy Conference, through Wednesday.

Tuesday, June 4

Next generation agriculture. Senate Ag Commodities, Risk Management and Trade Subcommittee hearing on “Pathways to Farming: Helping the Next Generation of Farmers.”
India elections. Results of elections in India expected.
FY 2025 Budget: Treasury. Senate Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee hearing on “A Review of the President’s FY 2025 Budget Request for the U.S. Department of Treasury.” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Homeland Security. House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee markup of the FY 2025 Homeland Security bill.
FY 2025 Budget: State, Foreign Operations. House Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee markup of the FY 2025 State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs bill.
FY 2025 Budget: NOAA. House Science, Space, and Technology Environment Subcommittee hearing on “An Overview of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Budget Proposal for FY 2025.” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Forest Service. House Natural Resources Federal Lands Subcommittee hearing on “Examining the President’s FY 2025 Budget Request for the U.S. Forest Service.”
FY 2025 Budget: FBI. Senate Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “A Review of the President’s FY 2025 Budget Request for the Federal Bureau of Investigation.” FBI Director Christopher Wray testifies.
FERC nominees. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on the nominations of David Rosner, Lindsay See, and Judy Chang to be members of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
IEA report. International Energy Agency (IEA) holds an embargoed release of a new report titled “COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking countries’ ambitions and identifying policies to bridge the gap,” featuring analysis of more than 145 countries with a target set of reaching 11,000 gigawatts of capacity by 2030.
Sustainability issues. U.S. Chamber of Commerce (USCC) holds its 2024 Sustainability and Circular Economy Summit.
CFTC meeting on digital assets. Commodity Futures Trading Commission meeting of the Global Markets Advisory Committee (GMAC) to hear a presentation from the GMAC’s Global Market Structure Subcommittee, Technical Issues Subcommittee, and Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee on various workstreams, and consider recommendations from the Subcommittees on such workstreams.
AI and energy. House Energy and Commerce Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee hearing on “Powering AI: Examining America’s Energy and Technology Future.”
U.S./China relations. Senate Foreign Relations Committee closed briefing on “Update on U.S./China Relations.”
Tiananmen Square anniversary. The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party holds a bipartisan news conference on “Tiananmen at 35: The Ongoing Struggle for Human Rights and Democracy in China,” to commemorate the anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising.
Social Security. House Ways and Means Social Security Subcommittee hearing on “The Social Security Trust Funds in 2024 and Beyond.”
U.S. southern border. House Natural Resources Committee hearing on “Biden’s Border Crisis: Examining Efforts to Combat International Criminal Cartels & Stop Illegal Drug Trafficking Targeting Indian Country.”
China maritime issues. House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee hearing on “Combatting the Grey Zone: Examining Chinese Threats to the Maritime Domain.”
AI and the economy. Joint Economic Committee hearing on “Artificial Intelligence and Its Potential to Fuel Economic Growth and Improve Governance.”
Mexican elections. Atlantic Council holds a discussion on “The New Mexican Administration.”
Student loan debt forgiveness. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) and the Defense of Freedom Institute (DFI) virtual discussion on “Exploring Challenges to Biden’s Recent Student Debt Forgiveness Plan.”

Wednesday, June 5

House, Senate farm bill subsidies. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “A Tale of Two Farm Bills: Cheers or Jeers for Farm Subsidy Proposals from the House and Senate?”
FY 2025 Budget: Energy. House Science, Space and Technology Committee hearing on “An Overview of the Budget Proposal for the Department of Energy for FY 2025.” Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk testifies.
EPA oversight. House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing on “Oversight of the US Environmental Protection Agency.” EPA Administrator Michael Regan testifies.
Pork industry issues. National Pork Producers Council policy discussion on issues for the pork industry, as part of the 36th World Port Expo.
India elections. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion on “Decoding the 2024 Indian General Elections.”
Efficient markets. House Financial Services Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion Subcommittee hearing on “Next Generation Infrastructure: How Tokenization of Real-World Assets Will Facilitate Efficient Markets.”
AI and investment. Securities and Exchange Commission virtual meeting of the SEC Investor Advisory Committee for a panel discussion examining the new frontier for investment advice including AI.
FWHA oversight. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on “Oversight and Budget of the Federal Highway Administration.”
Climate and insurance impacts. Senate Budget Committee hearing on “Riskier Business: How Climate is Already Challenging Insurance Markets.”
GSP, AGOA. Senate Finance Committee hearing on “Revitalizing and Renewing GSP (Generalized System of Preferences), AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) and Other Trade Preference Programs.”
Financial issues. International Swaps and Derivatives Association, and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, hold a Treasury Forum, including remarks from SEC Chair Gary Gensler.
U.S. economic leadership. Senate Judiciary Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights Subcommittee hearing on “Strengthening U.S. Economic Leadership: The Role of Competition in Enhancing Economic Resiliency.”

Thursday, June 6

80th anniversary of D-Day. President Joe Biden will be in France with other world leaders for the official commemorations, following that up with a tour of the country.
AI and financial stability. Financial Stability Oversight Council and the Brookings Institution hold a conference on “Artificial Intelligence & Financial Stability,” with keynote remarks from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
World energy. International Energy Agency (IEA) virtual media briefing on a new report, “World Energy Investment 2024.”
Energy issues. Energy Department meeting of the Electricity Advisory Committee for a discussion on secure communications, energy storage, Energy Department Clean Energy Workforce development efforts, and other issues.
Vulnerabilities to China. Atlantic Council discussion on “An allied approach to de-risking the tech supply chain,” focusing on U.S. and European strategic economic vulnerabilities to China.
Prescription drug user fees. Food and Drug Administration virtual meeting to discuss the financial transparency and efficiency of the Prescription Drug User Fee Act, Biosimilar User Fee Act, and Generic Drug User Fee Amendments.
Environmental justice. Environmental Protection Agency virtual meeting of the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council and the White House Environmental Justice Interagency Committee for federal agencies’ progress to advance environmental justice.
Conserving nature. Center for American Progress and the National Caucus of Environmental Legislators discussion on “State Leadership to Conserve Nature.” White House Council on Environmental Quality Chair Brenda Mallory delivers keynote remarks.
Critical minerals. Resources for the Future virtual discussion on “Critical Minerals, Critical Stakeholders: Engaging Local Communities in Mineral Resource Collaboration,” focusing on improving outcomes among communities — often native American tribes — and mining companies.
European parliament elections. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Europe Goes to the Polls,” focusing on elections to the European Parliament.

Friday, June 7

Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivers commencement speech at the Girls Global Academy first graduation.
Taiwan and global economy. Brookings Institution discussion on “Taiwan’s Central Role in the Global Economy,” including the importance of semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and support to global supply chains.

Economic Reports and Events for the Week

Focus will be on the May jobs report this week, which hits Friday. The update on nonfarm payrolls will be the last one before the Federal Reserve meets on June 11-12, amid growing uncertainty on the timing of rate cuts. The April PCE inflation report released Friday showed the Fed’s official target, the 12-month Core PCE, came in at 2.8%, steady from March’s reading.

Monday, June 3

Tuesday, June 4

Wednesday, June 5

MBA Mortgage Applications
ADP Employment Report
PMI Composite Final
ISM Services Index
Canada: interest rate announcement

Thursday, June 6

Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims are expected to show a slight increase. The most recent data from May 25 indicated that initial claims rose by 3,000 to 219,000. This suggests a trend of moderate increases in jobless claims, reflecting some softening in the labor market.
International Trade
Productivity and Costs
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply
EU: European Central Bank interest rate announcement

Friday, June 7

Employment: Economists polled by Reuters estimate non-farm payrolls will likely record an increase of 190,000 jobs in May, compared to a gain of 175,000 jobs in April. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged at 3.9% in the month. This follows a slight increase from 3.8% in March. Average hourly earnings probably gained 0.3% in May on a month-on-month basis.
Wholesale Trade
Consumer Credit
China: May trade balance data

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

The United Nations’ monthly food price index will be released Friday, when China will also publish its first batch of trade data for May, including soybean, edible oil and other imports.

In the energy sector, OPEC+ held ministerial discussions to determine the alliance’s production policy for the coming months on Sunday. Meanwhile, major energy- and shipping-related conferences will be held in locations around the world.

Monday, June 3

Ag reports and events: