Biden/Trump Debate and Upcoming SCOTUS Decisions Key Focus This Week

USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports Friday, Hogs & Pigs report Thursday

•

June 23, 2024 02:30 PM

USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports Friday, Hogs & Pigs report Thursday

Washington Focus

The House is in this week with the Senate out. Both chambers are scheduled to be out next week for the July 4 holiday and return the week of July 8.

— The Thursday debate between President Biden and former President Trump is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in the 2024 presidential election. Biden aims to present the election as a choice, portraying himself as a stable leader while characterizing Trump as chaotic and vengeful. Conversely, Trump seeks to make the election a referendum on Biden’s presidency, criticizing his handling of the economy and overall competence.

The debate will take place in Atlanta on June 27, 2024, and will be hosted by CNN’s Dana Bash and Jake Tapper. Both candidates have not faced each other since their 2020 debate and share a mutual disdain, adding to the anticipation of their encounter. The debate’s format includes strict rules, such as muted microphones and no props or prewritten notes, aiming to maintain order and focus.

Biden’s strategy involves reminding voters of the turbulent aspects of Trump’s first term and pushing back against what his campaign considers misleading statements from Trump. He plans to emphasize his administration’s achievements and outline his vision for a second term while addressing Trump’s controversial actions, such as his role in overturning Roe v. Wade.

Trump plans to challenge Biden’s age and cognitive abilities, hoping to depict him as weak. His strategy includes focusing on issues like the economy and crime, areas where he believes Biden is vulnerable. Despite playing down preparation efforts, Trump has been brushing up on policy and discussing debate themes with key allies and senators.

Both candidates need to appeal to a small but crucial group of undecided voters who are dissatisfied with both options. The debate is expected to attract millions of viewers, eager to see how each candidate performs and whether they can effectively undermine their opponent while presenting a compelling case for their own presidency.

— WRDA mark up this week. The House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee is expected to mark up its version of the 2024 Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) this week. The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee passed its version in May with a 19-0 vote.

— House Republicans continue their hearings on fiscal year (FY) 2025 appropriations. The House floor will debate three FY 2025 bills this week, including the State-Foreign Operations spending bill that includes funding for the U.S. Agency for International Development.

— Summary of upcoming Supreme Court decisions: The Supreme Court is nearing its deadline to release opinions on 14 argued cases, with decisions expected to have significant impacts. The next batch of opinions is set for release on Wednesday. Here are the five biggest unresolved cases:

Trump’s immunity claims:
- Issue: Whether former President Trump has immunity from criminal prosecution for actions taken while in office.
- Background: Trump has delayed his criminal trial on charges of conspiring to subvert the 2020 election by claiming presidential immunity. Lower courts have rejected this, but the Supreme Court may carve out some form of immunity.
- Potential Impact: A ruling in Trump’s favor could delay his trial until after the 2024 election, potentially aiding his presidential campaign.
Jan. 6 obstruction charge:
- Issue: Whether the Justice Department properly charged Jan. 6 defendants with obstruction.
- Background: Rioter Joseph Fischer challenged the application of an obstruction law originally intended for the Enron scandal. The Supreme Court’s decision could affect the sentences of over 300 rioters.
- Potential Impact: A ruling against the government could upend established sentences and support claims that the Justice Department overreached in prosecuting the Capitol riot.
Biden social media contacts:
- Issue: Whether the Biden administration violated the Constitution by coercing social media companies to remove false or misleading content.
- Background: Two Republican attorneys general argue that federal officials’ actions violated the First Amendment. The Supreme Court seemed inclined to side with the government during oral arguments.
- Potential Impact: A ruling against the government could limit federal efforts to address misinformation and national security threats on social media platforms.
Florida, Texas social media laws:
- Issue: Whether state laws regulating social media bans violate the First Amendment.
- Background: Texas and Florida laws prevent social media platforms from banning users based on political views. Tech industry groups argue these laws infringe on companies’ rights to editorial discretion.
- Potential Impact: Upholding the laws could reduce content moderation, potentially increasing harmful content online and affecting competition among platforms.
Federal agency power:
- Issue: Whether courts should defer to federal agencies’ interpretations of ambiguous laws (Chevron deference).
- Background: The 40-year-old Chevron deference doctrine supports federal regulation across various sectors. The Supreme Court may reconsider this precedent.
- Potential Impact: Overruling Chevron could limit federal regulatory power, affecting regulations on numerous issues from environmental protections to cryptocurrency.

— A GOP shift in tax-and-spend debate. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Tex.), policy chair of the House Freedom Caucus, lamented the influence of special-interest groups, “saying you can’t even have a conversation about taxes.” In a recent interview on the American Compass Podcast, Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Tex.), chair of the House Budget Committee, also rejected anti-tax “purity pledges” and endorsed the idea of budget negotiations that would both raise revenue and cut spending. Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), chair of the House Appropriations Committee, has expressed a similar sentiment, while Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, has said that some Republicans are discussing a corporate tax rate rise.

With the 2017 tax law provisions set to expire at the end of next year, the GOP faces challenges in deciding whether to extend and make these provisions permanent. Here are the key points and considerations:

Provisions set to expire:
- Lower tax rates on individuals.
- Relief from the alternative minimum tax.
- Treatment of U.S. companies’ foreign earnings.
- Small-business deductions.
Biden administration’s stance:
- Extend tax breaks for households making less than $400,000.
- Offset costs with tax increases on the wealthy and corporations.
GOP’s shift in messaging:
- Some Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee are reconsidering the full extension of the 2017 tax law.
- Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) suggests evaluating what worked and what didn’t in the original law.
- Ways and Means Committee is divided into ten GOP-only working groups to prepare for the expirations.
Political and economic context:
- Rising debt and shifting political landscape since 2017.
- Current debt and deficit constraints make a multitrillion-dollar increase challenging.
- Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah) emphasizes the need to reassess provisions considering the current economic situation.
Unpopular offsets and provisions:
- The $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions is unpopular among high-tax state representatives.
- Amortization of business R&D deductions is also a target for repeal.
Impact of debt and deficits:
- Federal debt held by the public has nearly doubled since 2017, now expected to be $28.2 trillion.
- Average interest rate on federal debt has risen from 2% in 2017 to 3.4% this year.
- Interest payments on debt are surpassing Medicare costs and are expected to exceed defense spending next year.
Balancing act:
- Republicans like Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) stress the need to balance targeted tax cuts with addressing the financial situation.
- Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) acknowledges the need to consider debt and deficit impacts, being open-minded about changes.
Senate Finance Committee:
- Senate Finance Democrats are compiling revenue-raising provisions and proposals to support the middle and working classes.
- Housing construction support and increased childcare availability are among the priorities.

— CCC scoring issue remains key stumbling block to get a new farm bill. House Ag Committee Republicans want suspend USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Section 5 authority to fund a new farm bill, but a recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projection has fallen short of their expected savings. The House farm bill (HR 8467) restricts USDA’s use of CCC funds unless authorized by Congress from fiscal 2025 through 2034. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack warns this restriction would hinder USDA’s disaster response capabilities.

The anticipated savings from suspending CCC authority were intended to enhance the Title I farm safety net. Republican committee aides projected savings between $50 billion and $53 billion over ten years, a figure Democrats repeated cite as a clear overstatement. However, the CBO’s latest projection estimates CCC Section 5 spending at $12 billion for fiscal years 2025 through 2034, significantly lower than Republicans’ estimates.

Republicans dispute the CBO’s forecast, accusing the agency of inaccuracies, as highlighted in a factsheet (link/pdf) stating that CBO has mis-forecasted Section 5 outlays by more than $60 billion since 2018. They note CBO had initially estimated $8 billion in savings before revising it in February. House Agriculture Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) expressed appreciation for CBO’s challenging task but emphasized discrepancies between their forecasts and historical realities. Republicans argue that ad hoc funds totaling approximately $64.2 billion have been spent since Section 5 authority was restored in 2018, averaging $10.7 billion annually.

Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) said the updated CBO projections confirm the House Republican farm bill is not financially viable, relying on unrealistic calculations. CBO score projected Section 5 spending levels at $0 for fiscal years 2027 through 2030. Stabenow criticized House Republicans for receiving only a fraction of the savings needed to fund their bill, in exchange for limiting USDA’s ability to assist farmers promptly.

The Senate version of the farm bill has yet to be released, with Stabenow indicating uncertainty about its markup schedule. Senate Republicans proposed a framework on June 11 to limit discretionary use of CCC and increase transparency, without detailing specific measures.

Thompson criticized Stabenow, noting the lack of bill text, funding mechanism, and bipartisan support for her proposals. He emphasized the House’s continued efforts on their bipartisan legislative text, aimed at securing the legacy of family farms for future generations.

Bottom line: Think a farm bill is going to be done anytime soon?

Other Events & Hearings

Monday, June 24

President Joe Biden scheduled to start the week at Camp David as he continues to prepare for Thursday’s debate with Donald Trump.
Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivers opening remarks at a conference; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly scheduled to speak.
Microbiological criteria in foods. USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS virtual meeting of the National Advisory Committee on Microbiological Criteria for Foods to provide updates on FSIS’ genomics charge and the FDA’s Cronobacter spp. in powdered infant formula charge.
China issues. Council on Foreign Relations launches the China Strategy Initiative, including keynote remarks from Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.
Saudi/Israeli relations. Middle East Institute virtual discussion on “Israeli-Saudi Normalization: An Effective Incentive for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking?”
Russia after two years of war. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “The State of Russia’s Defense Industry After Two Years of War and Sanctions.”
Weather satellite launch. National Aeronautics and Space Administration prelaunch news conference for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) GOES-U (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite U) mission, the final addition to GOES-R series, which will help to prepare for Earth and space weather and is scheduled to launch June 25.
International economics and monetary policy. Council on Foreign Relations discussion on international economics and U.S. monetary policy.

Tuesday, June 25

Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to speak on Perspectives on U.S. Monetary Policy and Bank Capital Reform at an event in London and later delivers opening remarks at a conference via video; Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the Economic Outlook.
Competition in agricultural markets. Center for American Progress virtual discussion on “Increasing Competition and Fairness in Food and Agricultural Markets.” USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack and Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter, who heads the Justice Department’s antitrust division, will keynote the event.
U.S. economy. Brookings Institution launch of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Economic Survey of the United States.
Putin/Kim summit. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion on “Takeaways from the Putin/Kim Summit.”
Economic outlook. Economic Club of New York discussion on the economic outlook.
Clean Air Act advisory panel. Environmental Protection Agency virtual meeting of the Clean Air Act Advisory Committee.
Global issues. Atlantic Council virtual launch of its “2024 Freedom and Prosperity Indexes,” focusing on “how global conflict, democratic backsliding, and rising authoritarianism are impacting the world.”
East Palestine, Ohio, trainwreck. National Transportation Safety Board public meeting to vote on the final findings, probable cause, and recommendations for the 2023 East Palestine train derailment and subsequent hazardous material release and fires.

Wednesday, June 26

High Plains drought. Senate Ag Committee field hearing on “The High Plains: Combating Drought with Innovation.”
FY 2025 Budget: Commerce, Science, Justice. House Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee markup of the FY 2025 Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies bill.
FY 2025 Budget: DOE. House Science, Space and Technology Committee hearing on “An Overview of the Budget Proposal for the Department of Energy for FY 2025.” Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Commerce. House Energy and Commerce Innovation, Data, and Commerce Subcommittee hearing on “The FY 2025 Department of Commerce Budget.” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo testifies.
Mexico’s political landscape. Hudson Institute discussion on “Mexico’s New Political Landscape.”
Regionalized trade. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “Is Trade Becoming Regionalized?”
Small business issues. House Small Business Committee hearing on “Under the Microscope: Examining the Censorship-Industrial Complex and its Impact on American Small Businesses.”
NATO summit preview. Center for Strategic and International Studies media conference call briefing on “Previewing the NATO Summit.”
Covid response. House Judiciary Administrative State, Regulatory Reform, and Antitrust Subcommittee hearing on “Follow the Science? Oversight of the Biden Covid-19 Administrative State Response.”
China political warfare. House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing on “Defending America from the Chinese Communist Party’s Political Warfare, Part II.”
China semiconductors and drones. House (Select) Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee hearing on “From High Tech to Heavy Steel: Combatting the PRC’s Strategy to Dominate Semiconductors, Shipbuilding, and Drones.”
Decarbonizing shipping. Wilson Center’s China Environment Forum virtual discussion on “Sailing to the Edge of the Carbon World: Decarbonizing Shipping from American, Chinese and European Perspectives.”
U.S./China competition. Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on a new report, “Disorderly Conduct: How U.S./China Competition Upended the International Economic Order and What the United States Can Do to Fix It.”
Bank stress tests. House Financial Services Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee hearing on “Stress Testing: What’s Inside the Black Box?”
Connecting rural America. Washington Post Live virtual film screening and discussion on “Every Last Mile: The Untold Story of Connecting Rural America.”
Supply chains. Politico discussion on “Securing America’s Supply Chain for Critical Infrastructure.”

Thursday, June 27

Presidential debate. CNN hosts a 2024 Election Presidential Debate with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
FY 2025 Budget: Labor, HHS, Education. House Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Subcommittee markup of the FY 2025 Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies bill.
FY 2025 Budget: Transportation, HHS. House Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee markup of the FY 2025 Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies bill.
FY 2025 Budget: Transportation. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee hearing on “Oversight of the Department of Transportation’s Policies and Programs and FY 2025 Budget Request.” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg testifies.
AGOA benefits. Office of the U.S. Trade Representative public hearing “Concerning the Annual Review of Country Eligibility for Benefits Under the African Growth and Opportunity Act for Calendar Year 2025.”
Problem Solvers caucus. PunchBowl News discussion with Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) focusing on “the news of the day and his bipartisan work as a co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus in the 118th Congress.”
Immigration and terrorism. House Homeland Security Border Security and Enforcement Subcommittee and Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence Subcommittee joint hearing on “Beyond the Border: Terrorism and Homeland Security Consequences of Illegal Immigration.”
Ex-Im Bank and China. House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on “The Role of the Export-Import (Ex-Im) Bank of the United States Amid Intensifying Economic Competition with China.”
SEC issues. House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee hearing on “Solutions in Search of a Problem: Chair Gensler’s Equity Market Structure Reforms.”
Infrastructure resilience. House Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee hearing on “Sector Down: Ensuring Critical Infrastructure Resilience.”
Federal labor costs. House Oversight and Accountability Cybersecurity, Information Technology, and Government Innovation Subcommittee hearing on “Cutting Competition in Contracting: The Administration’s Pricey Project Labor Agreement Mandate.”

Drones and the Taiwan Strait. Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on “Swarms over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan.”

Friday, June 28

Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman takes part in a Conversation with Governor Bowman event; Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.
FY 2025 Budget: Interior, Environment. House Appropriations Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Subcommittee markup of the FY 2025 Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies bill.
FY 2025 Budget: Interior, Water. House Appropriations Energy and Water Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee markup of the FY 2025 Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies bill.
World energy. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Statistical Review of World Energy 2024.”

Economic Reports and Events for the Week

Inflation will again be the primary focus as market participants anticipate Friday’s U.S. personal income and outlays data for May. This report includes the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists predict a 0.1% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year rise in core PCE, indicating a deceleration from April. Additionally, U.S. economic growth will draw attention on Thursday with the release of the second estimate of Q1 gross domestic product growth.

Monday, June 24

Dallas Fed Manufacturing
IMF’s annual check-up of the U.S. economy

Tuesday, June 25

Chicago Fed National Activity Index
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI
FHFA House Price Index
Chicago PMI
Consumer Confidence
Richmond Fed Manufacturing
China: World Economic Forum’s 15th Annual Meeting of the New Champions begins in Dalian, running until Thursday.

Wednesday, June 26

MBA Mortgage Applications
New Home Sales
Federal Reserve publishes its annual bank stress test results

Thursday, June 27

Friday, June 28

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

USDA on Tuesday releases its monthly food price outlook report. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack and some White House officials have recently focused on recent downward moves in the price of some food products. Meanwhile, a Hogs & Pigs survey report comes Thursday, with Friday bringing some key USDA reports on Acreage and Grain Stocks.

Monday, June 24

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Chickens & Eggs
Poultry Slaughter
Crop Progress
CFTC Commitments of Traders report
MARS bulletin on EU crop conditions