Biden Says He Might Not Have Sought Re-election If Trump Weren’t Running

G.T. Thompson diagnosed with prostate cancer | More U.S. SRW wheat, soybean sales to China

Jim Wiesemeyer

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December 06, 2023 08:18 AM

G.T. Thompson diagnosed with prostate cancer | More U.S. SRW wheat, soybean sales to China

Today’s Digital Newspaper

MARKET FOCUS

Private businesses in U.S. added 103,000 workers to payrolls, short of expectations
U.S. job market showing signs of weakening
Venture Global LNG, a U.S. gas startup, in major dispute with global energy giants
Panama Canal crisis starting to have significant impact on global energy markets
Gold prices reaching record highs due to prospect interest rates may have peaked
Ag markets today
USDA daily export sales:
— 372,000 MT SRW wheat to China during 2023-2024 marketing year
— 136,000 MT soybeans to China during 2023-2024 marketing year
Ag trade update
Around 16 million people in Pacific Northwest placed under flood alerts
NWS weather outlook
Pro Farmer First Thing Today items

CONGRESS

CEOs of eight largest banks in U.S. will testify before Senate Banking Committee
Senators will conduct procedural vote on a $111 bil. national security supplemental bill,
House Speaker sends letter to White House re: additional Ukraine aid
House Speaker Mike Johnson sends gov’t funding offer to Senate
VP Kamala Harris casts record-breaking 32nd tie-breaking vote in Senate

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

Netanyahu: Israeli military to maintain Gaza security control indefinitely

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

Moscow’s monthly income from oil exports greater now than before invasion of Ukraine

POLICY

Lawmakers urge USDA to revert to 2021 ERP guidelines in concerns letter

PERSONNEL

House Ag Committee chair diagnosed with prostate cancer
Senate advances military nominations after Tuberville’s hold release

CHINA

China banks continue to support yuan
Chinese official stresses promoting stable, healthy Sino/U.S. relations

TRADE POLICY

Taiwan’s top trade negotiator signals desire to expand Taipei’s agreement with U.S.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

EV demand growth defies headlines: Sales to hit 14 mil. in 2023, up 36% from 2022
Over 30 countries join U.S. in pursuit of global ‘clean hydrogen’ certification accord

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

Another commercial broiler operation in Arkansas confirmed to have cases of HPAI
France ordering third dose of vaccines against HPAI in ducks
WOAH calling for more testing of African Swine Fever (ASF) vaccines
Smithfield ends contracts with 26 Utah pig farms, citing oversupply

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

Biden: Might not be running for second term if Trump weren’t seeking White House
Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) will not seek re-election
Republican presidential candidates face off tonight in Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Argentina’s ‘El Loco’ Milei shifts stance after election triumph

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings. In Asia, Japan +2%. Hong Kong +0.8%. China -0.1%. India +0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.5%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.3%.

U.S. equities yesterday: Only the Nasdaq was able to register a positive close Tuesday. The Dow declined 79.88 points, 0.22%, at 36,124.56. The Nasdaq rose 44.42 points, 0.31%, at 14,229.91. The S&P 500 fell 2.60 points, 0.06%, at 4,567.18.

Energy prices keep on slipping, with benchmark West Texas Intermediate so far down 22% in the fourth quarter and the average price of stateside gasoline falling 16% to $3.21 a gallon. It comes as the U.S. continues to pump crude at a record rate, cranking out a record 13.2 million barrels a day, which is more than oil-exporting heavyweights Russia and Saudi Arabia.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

Corn: March corn futures closed up 5 cents at $4.90 1/2 and near the session high.
Soy complex: January soybeans fell 3/4 cent to $13.05 1/2 after trading at the lowest intraday level since Oct. 13, while January meal rose $9.50 to $417.80, marking the first positive close in six sessions. January soyoil fell 98 points to 50.26 cents and traded at the lowest intraday level since Nov. 13 early on.
Wheat: March SRW wheat rose 10 3/4 cents at $6.31 1/4 and nearer the session high. Prices hit a three-month high today. March HRW wheat gained 5 cents to $6.62 3/4, near mid-range and hit a four-week high. Spring wheat futures rose 2 3/4 cents before settling at $7.39.
Cotton: March cotton rose 100 points to 79.68 cents, ending near the session high.
Cattle: February live cattle futures rallied $1.90 to $168.975, while nearby December futures rose $1.25 to $168.50. January feeder cattle futures jumped $4.175 to $214.70.
Hogs: Hog futures remained seasonally weak, with the nearby December contract falling $1.225 to $66.825 and most-active February dropping $1.45 to $69.35.

— Ag markets today: Corn and wheat extended their recent rallies overnight, while soybeans firmed amid a corrective rebound. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading mostly 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans were 3 to 6 cents higher, winter wheat markets were 5 to 7 cents higher and spring wheat was 1 to 3 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were around 60 cents lower, and the U.S. dollar index was just above unchanged.

Big beef movement continues. Wholesale beef prices dropped $1.24 in Choice and $3.70 for Select on Tuesday, while packers moved a strong 155 loads on the weaker values. That extends the now week-long string of movement topping 100 loads. While packers haven’t been able to push wholesale beef prices higher, retailer demand has been strong, signaling purchases for active year-end features.

Rinse and repeat in the hog/pork markets. The CME lean hog index is down another 24 cents to $69.60 (as of December 4), extending the seasonal price decline. The pork cutout value firmed 24 cents to $84.67. While the wholesale pork market has stabilized in the mid-$80.00 range, the cash hog market is still searching for a seasonal bottom.

— Quotes of note:

China woes. “What we’re seeing is right now that China will probably get worse in all categories before it gets better.” — Andre Schulten, Procter & Gamble’s finance chief.
‘Eating their words’. Economists who forecast the need for high unemployment to rein in inflation are now “eating their words,” according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. “We’re not seeing the usual signs of a weakening labor market that would make you fear a recession.”
“It’s a fundamental change in how pharmacy services are priced.” — Adam Fein, chief executive of the Drug Channels Institute, which provides research on the drug-supply chain, on CVS’s move, noting that it is “a legitimate step toward transparency.”
Give carbon some credit. “We are changing…from primarily timber revenue to carbon as the main revenue source. The greatest value of formerly industrial forests will come from increasing carbon storage.” — Aurora Sustainable Lands Chief Executive Jamie Houston, speaking on the topic of so-called forest offsets, a growing type of carbon-offset scheme.

— In November, private businesses in the U.S. added 103,000 workers to their payrolls, which fell short of expectations and was below the revised figure of 106,000 for October. The disappointing job growth was observed in both the goods-producing and service-providing sectors. Notably, sectors such as leisure and hospitality, as well as manufacturing, experienced declines in employment during this period.

— U.S. job market, which has been a significant driver of economic strength, is showing signs of weakening. In October, the number of available jobs hit its lowest level since March 2021, according to the Labor Department. This decline in job openings comes amid a year-long increase in the unemployment rate and a lengthening period for Americans to find new jobs. The number of job openings fell to 8.7 million in October, down from a peak of 12 million in March 2022, although still higher than pre-pandemic levels. While there are still more job openings than unemployed Americans, the gap has narrowed.

The surge in resignations that characterized the early stages of the pandemic recovery has subsided, with workers increasingly hesitant to leave their jobs without a new one lined up. The hiring rate has also ticked lower in October, indicating that employers are becoming less eager to fill job roles. Meanwhile, layoffs have remained historically low. This evolving job market dynamic suggests a normalization in the labor market.

The relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate, known as the Beveridge curve, has moved closer to pre-pandemic levels, further indicating a shift in the labor market. The November jobs report, expected to be released soon, will provide additional insights into the state of the labor market.

Stanford University’s Ryan Cummings and Neale Mahoney devised a formula showing that the impact of inflation on consumer sentiment decays at a rate of about 50% per year (link). “The estimates imply that current sentiment is being dragged down by 16 index points by the inflation we have experienced over the last 3 years, down 40% from the peak negative impact of 27 index points in June 2022. If inflation next year slows to 2.5%, the negative impact on consumer sentiment from inflation would decline by another 50% relative to the current value.”

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was basically steady with most global currencies little changed against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was slightly higher, around 4.18%, with a negative tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were moving lower ahead of U.S. gov’t inventory data due later this morning, with U.S. crude around $71.70 per barrel and Brent around $76.55 per barrel. Gold and silver were mixed ahead of U.S. economic data, with gold higher around $2,044 per troy ounce and silver weaker around $24.53 per troy ounce.

— Venture Global LNG, a U.S. gas startup, is embroiled in a major dispute with global energy giants, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). The company has risen to prominence as one of the largest natural gas exporters globally by offering cost-effective contracts to energy firms and swiftly responding to supply gas to Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted exports. However, some of its initial customers, such as BP and Shell, allege that Venture Global has failed to uphold its contractual obligations, a claim that Venture Global refutes.

— Panama Canal crisis is starting to have a significant impact on global energy markets, particularly the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a significant U.S. export. This price surge in Asia is notable, especially as crude oil prices have been declining. In a report (link), the Wall Street Journal says the primary reason for this increase in LPG prices is the worsening impact of drought at the Panama Canal, which serves as a crucial route for U.S. LPG shipments to reach Asian markets. Transit through the canal has been significantly reduced in recent months, and further restrictions are expected. In January, daily transits will be limited to 20, and in February, this will drop to 18. Canal authorities have also categorized LPG carriers as the lowest priority among vessels, leading some ships to take longer routes, consequently driving up shipping rates. As a result, day rates for very large gas carriers on the Houston-Japan route have surged by 35% since the beginning of August.

— Gold prices are reaching record highs due to the prospect that interest rates may have peaked. December gold futures settled at $2,071 per troy ounce, surpassing their previous high of $2,051.50 per ounce recorded in August 2020. Gold has been on an upward trajectory for seven out of the past eight weeks, resulting in an 11% gain for the year. This performance puts gold futures on track for their best annual showing since 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the economy and drove up the value of the precious metal by 24%. Several factors are influencing the surge in gold prices, including falling inflation rates, shifts in economic forecasts, changing interest-rate expectations, and investor anxieties. These factors are collectively driving investors to seek the safety and stability of gold, contributing to its remarkable performance in the market.

— USDA daily export sales:

• 372,000 MT SRW wheat to China during 2023-2024 marketing year
• 136,000 MT soybeans to China during 2023-2024 marketing year

— Ag trade update: South Korea purchased between 55,000 MT and 68,000 MT of corn to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa and 65,000 MT of optional origin wheat, excluding Russia, Argentina, Pakistan, Denmark and China. Algeria purchased 450,000 to 500,000 MT of durum wheat, expected to be sourced mostly from Canada and Australia. Japan tendered to buy 60,000 MT of feed wheat and 20,000 MT of feed barley.

— Around 16 million people in the Pacific Northwest were placed under flood alerts on Tuesday night due to a powerful atmospheric river causing heavy rainfall in the region. Tragically, in Portland, Oregon, at least one person lost their life after being swept away in floodwaters, as reported by authorities. The severe weather system impacting the Northwest has already delivered over 8 inches of rain during the week, with forecasts indicating that more rain is expected. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are possible today. The hazardous weather conditions have also led to Amtrak temporarily suspending all train services between Portland and Seattle due to a landslide, further affecting transportation in the area.

— NWS weather outlook: Excessive rainfall and flooding potential continues across the Pacific Northwest... ...Moderate upslope snow forecast across the central and southern Appalachians today... ...Well above average and potentially record-breaking warmth forecast across the central United States over the next few days.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Grains firmer overnight
• Russia’s winter grains in better-than-average condition

CONGRESS

— CEOs of the eight largest banks in U.S. will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. During this testimony, they will be questioned on a range of topics, including their business operations, hiring practices, contributions to the U.S. economy, and other relevant matters.

— House is exploring the possibility of a short-term extension for FISA (Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act), House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) signaled. This consideration follows Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) decision not to include an extension of surveillance authorities in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that must be passed this month. Scalise said various options, including a short-term standalone extension, are under consideration. FISA Section 702, which permits the U.S. government to conduct surveillance on foreign nationals, is set to expire at the end of the year.

— Senators will conduct a procedural vote on a $111 billion national security supplemental bill, which aims to aid Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan. While, the bill addresses portions of the U.S./Mexico border crisis, including a bipartisan measure aimed at curtailing the influx of fentanyl into the United States, it does not include substantial border policy adjustments Republicans support. As a result, Republicans will oppose the motion, leading to the failure of the procedural vote.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) in a letter to the White House Tuesday morning that additional Ukraine aid is “dependent upon enactment of transformative change to our nation’s border security laws.”

— House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has sent a government funding offer to the Senate and is awaiting a response, according to Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.). These funding negotiations are complex due to discussions on emergency foreign aid and the rescission of unspent funds. The House and Senate leaders are currently focused on top-line funding levels, and reaching an agreement on these levels would pave the way for a full funding deal. Deadlines for these negotiations are looming on Jan. 19 and Feb. 2.

The fact that Speaker Johnson made an offer to the Senate signifies progress in negotiations between the two chambers, despite previous disagreements among House Republicans over spending levels. However, there is still disagreement among House Republicans about how much they will accept the funding levels negotiated by Johnson and the Senate. Some are willing to give their proxy to leadership, while others may take a different approach.

Additionally, there was discussion among some Republicans about the possibility of a stopgap funding bill that would last through the remainder of the fiscal year, although this was seen as a less favorable option and something Johnson has pledged he will not pursue.

— Vice President Kamala Harris has cast a record-breaking 32nd tie-breaking vote in the Senate. This historic vote occurred when she voted to invoke cloture on the nomination of Loren AliKhan for a district court judge position. Harris’s 32 tie-breaking votes surpass the previous record of 31 held by John Calhoun, who achieved this feat during his tenure as vice president from 1825 to 1832.

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

— Netanyahu: Israeli military to maintain Gaza security control indefinitely. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the military would have to maintain indefinite security control over the Gaza Strip long after the war against Hamas ends. “Gaza must be demilitarized,” the prime minister said during a press conference. “And only the IDF can take care of that. No international force can do that for us. We saw what happened in other places where international forces were taken for disarmament purposes.”

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— Moscow’s monthly income from oil exports is greater now than before the invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the failure of measures to curb Russia’s war chest. Link to more via Bloomberg.

POLICY UPDATE

— Lawmakers urge USDA to revert to 2021 ERP guidelines in concerns letter. House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) and Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) have led a group of 65 members of the U.S. House and Senate in sending a letter to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack. The letter (link) expresses concerns about changes to the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) payments for losses incurred in 2022 and urges the USDA to revert to 2021 guidelines in alignment with congressional intent.

The changes to ERP include increased crop insurance premium reimbursements for “socially disadvantaged” farmers, defined as female or of a certain ethnicity, and the implementation of a progressive payment model that may hinder those who suffered the most significant losses from receiving sufficient assistance. The group insists that these changes do not adhere to the intended purpose of disaster relief programs and could negatively impact farmers’ ability to secure financing and plan for the next crop year. They emphasize the need for USDA to follow the law and congressional intent in addressing crop losses without unauthorized pay limits or preferences.

Earlier this year, Rep. Arrington and Sen. Marshall had also urged USDA to reconsider ERP Phase 2 implementation and return to the Phase I methodology for 2022 crop disaster assistance.

Bottom line: The concerns were expressed earlier by other lawmakers amid widespread farmer complaints about the program.

PERSONNEL

— House Ag Committee chair diagnosed with prostate cancer. House Ag Committee Chair Glenn GT Thompson (R-Pa.) has been diagnosed with prostate cancer, he said Tuesday. In a statement, Thompson said the diagnosis followed a routine physical and subsequent tests. “While this diagnosis is a surprise, I feel well, and I will continue my work representing the people of Pennsylvania’s 15th District,” Thompson said in the statement. Thompson, 64, said he will “tackle this head on” and appreciates the prayers and privacy during this time. He appears to still be running for re-election in 2024 in the wake of the diagnosis, according to his campaign website. Thompson’s district covers parts of western and central Pennsylvania, home to more than 764,800 people. Thompson was first elected to the U.S. House in 2008.

— Senate advances military nominations after Tuberville’s hold release. The Senate successfully advanced a backlog of military nominations on Tuesday, following Senator Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) decision to release his nearly 10-month hold on these nominations in protest of the Pentagon’s abortion policy. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) facilitated the advancement of over 400 nominations through unanimous consent, finally allowing military personnel to assume their new roles after being in limbo for a significant part of the year. The agreement reached by Tuberville with Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) permitted the confirmation of promotions for officers at the three-star level en bloc. However, the hold remained in place for nearly a dozen officers at the four-star level.

Of note: Tuberville admitted that he got nothing in return. The Pentagon abortion policy he was protesting remains in place. Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.) expects the Senate will vote to approve the remaining four-star promotions before the end of the year. Any nomination or promotion not confirmed by the end of the year must be re-nominated.

CHINA UPDATE

— China banks continue to support yuan. China’s major state-owned banks sold U.S. dollars in the onshore spot foreign exchange market for a second day on Wednesday to support the yuan currency, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The dollar selling was reportedly mild compared to Tuesday. Chinese exporters usually convert their FX receipts into the yuan towards year-end for various payments, including year-end bonus handouts, which typically supports the Chinese currency. But with the Chinese economy sputtering and the U.S. dollar surging until recently, the yuan has come under pressure.

— Chinese official stresses promoting stable, healthy Sino/U.S. relations. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said promoting healthy, stable and sustainable China/U.S. relations is an important task, in a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. In the call, the two top diplomats exchanged views on the Israeli/Hamas conflict and agreed to maintain communication on the situation in the Middle East, according to a Chinese foreign ministry statement. Wang also repeatedly stressed that the U.S. should fully understand the importance of the Taiwan issue to China. Both officials also emphasized the importance of building upon progress made on key issues in the summit between the countries’ respective presidents in California in November.

TRADE POLICY

— Taiwan’s top trade negotiator signaled a desire to expand Taipei’s initial agreement with Washington into a deal that more closely resembles a free trade pact, as the export-dependent island economy works to counter China’s increasingly aggressive efforts at isolating it. The island’s trade officials are talking with their U.S. counterparts about broadening the scope of their current arrangement reached earlier this year, John Deng, the head of Taiwan’s Office of Trade Negotiations, said in an interview with Bloomberg in Taipei on Friday. “One goal is to expand the coverage: more topics like agriculture, labor. We are willing to talk whatever international trade regime needs to address,” Deng told Bloomberg News. “Second is the market access issue, that is tariffs. We hope that one day the US government is ready for tariff talk.” There is no timetable for the next round of talks, Deng added.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— EV demand growth defies headlines: Sales to reach 14 million in 2023, up 36% from 2022. Despite recent headlines suggesting a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) demand, data from Bloomberg Hyperdrive suggests otherwise (link). Passenger EV sales are set to reach 14 million this year, marking a substantial 36% increase from 2022. In the United States, where concerns about EV demand have been particularly prominent, sales are growing even faster and are expected to increase by 50% this year. While these figures may fall short of some manufacturers’ expectations, they align with forecasts made by BNEF at the start of the year. Such growth rates are considered quite substantial and would be viewed positively by most industries.

— Over 30 countries join U.S. in pursuit of global ‘clean hydrogen’ certification accord. The United States, along with over 30 other countries, has initiated a declaration of intent to collaborate on achieving mutual recognition of “clean hydrogen” certification systems, according to the Department of Energy (DOE). This effort, launched at the UN’s COP28 climate conference in Dubai, aims to establish standards for certifying hydrogen as “clean” or “low carbon.” The United States defines clean hydrogen as hydrogen produced using renewable energy, nuclear energy, or carbon capture and storage, excluding unabated fossil energy such as natural gas. The initiative emphasizes the importance of considering the complete life cycle climate impacts of hydrogen and its derivatives when developing certification schemes and standards.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Another commercial broiler operation in Arkansas has been confirmed to have cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) verified the presence of HPAI in a commercial broiler flock located in Johnson County, Arkansas. This outbreak affects approximately 109,000 birds. Notably, there were 55 confirmed cases of HPAI in commercial poultry flocks in November, and as of December, three more cases have been reported, indicating an ongoing concern for the poultry industry in the region.

— France ordering a third dose of vaccines against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) to be administered to ducks in specific high-risk areas. This decision comes in response to “new scientific evidence” and aims to proactively prevent a surge in HPAI cases. France recently elevated the risk level for HPAI from “moderate” to “high” due to the detection of new cases. More than 30 countries have utilized HPAI vaccines since 2005, according to the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), while some countries, including the United States, have not employed such vaccines. USDA, in September, blocked imports of poultry and poultry products from France, citing concerns that vaccinating poultry against HPAI could potentially mask the presence of the virus, leading to the inadvertent export of infected animals or contaminated products to the United States.

— The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) is calling for more testing of African Swine Fever (ASF) vaccines, particularly the vaccine produced by AVAC Vietnam JSC. This decision comes after Vietnam announced plans to export 5 million doses of its ASF vaccine. WOAH expressed concerns that AVAC Vietnam has not shared sufficient data with international researchers and organizations, despite the company asserting the safety and effectiveness of their vaccine.

Gregorio Torres, head of the science department at WOAH, emphasized the need for further testing on the AVAC vaccine, while AVAC’s chief operating officer, Nguyen Van Diep, stated that they have shared vaccine data and that their vaccine has been safely used in 17 provinces. The AVAC vaccine was initially discovered by USDA researchers but developed in Vietnam due to the absence of the ASF virus in the United States.

USDA clarified that it did not have access to the trial data from Vietnam.

Meanwhile, WOAH is actively discussing new global standards for evaluating ASF vaccines, with potential approval expected in May. Another vaccine produced in Vietnam, also based on a USDA platform, has shared positive trial data and is currently undergoing testing in the Dominican Republic. ASF vaccination has been a significant focus for the U.S. industry due to the absence of the virus in the United States.

— Smithfield ends contracts with 26 Utah pig farms, citing oversupply. Smithfield Foods said on Tuesday it will end contracts with 26 hog farms in Utah, in the latest contraction by the world’s largest pork processor. A company statement cited an “industry oversupply of pork, weaker consumer demand and high feed prices: as challenges.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) will not seek re-election. McHenry has been a prominent figure in the Republican Party, serving as the chief of the House Financial Services Committee and transitioning from a conservative firebrand to a respected lieutenant under former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). He also briefly served as acting speaker during the search for a replacement after McCarthy’s removal. McHenry’s decision represents one of the noteworthy GOP retirements in Congress this year.

Of note: Because of term limits, he wouldn’t be able to hold onto his committee chairmanship anyway, though his district will most likely remain in Republican hands.

— Biden: May not have run if Trump wasn’t candidate. President Biden made a statement at a Boston fundraiser, revealing that he might have considered retiring after a single term in office if former President Donald Trump had not been running in the next election. He stated that “If Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running,” but emphasized the importance of not letting Trump win. Critics have raised concerns about Biden’s mental acuity, and several polls have indicated that a significant number of voters are worried about his cognitive abilities. Trump, 77, is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination and is polling ahead of Biden, 81, in various surveys, largely due to concerns about economic issues such as high inflation and interest rates. However, Trump is also facing legal challenges, with multiple trials scheduled in the coming months.

— Republican presidential candidates will face off tonight in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, in the fourth primary debate of the 2024 election cycle. The candidates set to take the stage are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Former President Donald Trump, the dominant front-runner in national and early-state primary polling, will be skipping the event.

— Argentina’s ‘El Loco’ Milei shifts stance after election triumph. Javier Milei, also known as “El Loco,” won the recent Argentina election with bold promises, including slashing government spending and adopting libertarian economic policies. He gained fame as an economic libertarian and social libertine, advocating for limited government intervention, even in personal matters like drug use and same-sex marriage. However, the Wall Street Journal reports (link) that ahead of his inauguration on Dec. 10, Milei is backpedaling on some of his earlier stances.

He has abandoned some key economic advisers who supported radical measures such as eliminating the central bank and adopting the U.S. dollar as the national currency. Instead, he is now aligning with officials from a previous center-right government, showing a more moderate approach. He has also softened his tone, acknowledging that the transition to unfettered capitalism might take longer than expected.

Milei’s change in stance has surprised both supporters and opponents. While he initially drew votes from those frustrated with the political establishment, many Argentines are now hoping that his campaign promises were merely rhetoric. They fear that his economic reforms could hit hard, especially given Argentina’s ongoing economic crisis.

Milei still plans to close the central bank and move away from the peso to the U.S. dollar, but the speed and extent of these changes remain uncertain. He also aims to cut government spending, privatize state-owned companies, and dismantle subsidies and controls, which mainstream economists agree are necessary but could initially fuel inflation.

His presidency is expected to face challenges, including opposition from powerful labor unions and social movements. Violent protests have ousted Argentine presidents in the past. Despite this, Milei remains resolute in his goal of reshaping the country’s economic landscape.

Milei’s eccentric personality, controversial views on personal matters, and harsh rhetoric, including criticism of China and Brazil, have raised concerns, especially among trade partners. However, some sectors, such as farmers and business owners, hope his administration will bring tax cuts, currency stability, and economic growth.

KEY LINKS

Policy Updates