The Week Ahead: Nov. 17, 2024
— Biden authorized Ukraine to use long-range weapons inside Russia, senior officials say, a significant reversal of U.S. policy. The decision to allow Kyiv to use the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, to hit targets inside Russia comes as thousands of elite North Korean troops have been sent to Kursk to bolster Moscow’s forces. Weekend reports signal North Korea could send up to 100,000 troops to fight in Ukraine. Biden’s authorization, a major policy shift, follows a gradual easing of restrictions that began after a cross-border Russian assault toward Kharkiv earlier this year. Initially, the U.S. had allowed the use of shorter-range HIMARS systems but withheld permission for longer-range ATACMS, which have a range of roughly 190 miles. This escalation, while potentially pivotal for Ukraine, is a deeply controversial move within U.S. leadership circles, with some officials fearing Russian retaliation against American and allied interests. Supporters of the policy believe it demonstrates resolve against Moscow’s aggression, while critics caution that it risks provoking a dangerous escalation. The context of this decision is particularly sensitive given President-elect Donald Trump’s stated intention to limit support for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky views the use of long-range systems as critical leverage, while Russia’s ongoing offensive, bolstered by an estimated 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops, poses a substantial threat to Ukrainian positions. Biden’s change of course is aimed at sending a clear deterrent message to North Korea and ensuring that Ukraine is not overwhelmed militarily. However, the risk of escalation remains a pressing concern, with U.S. intelligence suggesting potential retaliatory moves from President Putin, ranging from sabotage operations in Europe to direct attacks on Western assets. This complex geopolitical maneuver underscores the high stakes at play as U.S. policy shifts under changing leadership dynamics in Washington. — Donald Trump is asking potential Treasury secretary candidates to commit to implementing his tariff policies. According to recent reports, Trump’s advisers are seeking assurances from top candidates for the Treasury secretary position that they are committed to enacting his sweeping tariff plans. This move aligns with Trump’s renewed focus on tough trade policies for his 2024 campaign. He has promised to impose tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods and 10% to 20% on all imported goods, effectively returning the United States to a more protectionist stance. Trump views tariffs as a potent economic tool to reshape U.S. trade policy and boost domestic industries. The search for a Treasury secretary who supports Trump’s tariff agenda has sparked intense lobbying efforts among his loyalists. This approach reflects Trump’s determination to avoid the internal resistance he faced during his previous administration, where some advisors, including former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, reportedly provided internal opposition to his economic nationalist policies. Trump’s team is looking for candidates who genuinely support his economic agenda. Some potential contenders for the Treasury secretary role include: — Burgum will be Trump’s energy czar besides leading Interior. Doug Burgum, North Dakota governor and former software executive, is positioned to become a pivotal figure in U.S. energy and climate policy under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. Appointed as both Interior Department chief and head of the newly formed National Energy Council, Burgum will have extensive influence over federal energy policies and agencies. His focus on oil, gas production, carbon capture, and hydrogen energy aligns with advancing domestic energy goals, though environmentalists criticize his pro-fossil fuel stance and lack of conservation expertise. While not dismissing climate concerns outright, Burgum’s approach contrasts with Trump’s skepticism about climate change. — Trump nominates Chris Wright as Energy Secretary. He currently is CEO of Colorado-based Liberty Energy Inc. and is known for his support of oil and natural gas fracking. He sits on the board of a nuclear reactor company. He has championed fossil fuels as essential to global prosperity, while downplaying the severity of climate change. In his statement, Trump highlighted Wright’s contributions to the U.S. energy sector, noting his role in advancing the American shale revolution. Trump emphasized Wright’s experience in various energy fields, including nuclear, solar, geothermal, and oil and gas. Wright’s confirmation would place him on a new Council of National Energy, which will be led by Doug Burgum, Trump’s pick for Interior Secretary. Trump said the energy council “will consist of all Departments and Agencies involved in the permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation, transportation, of ALL forms of American Energy.” — Trump appoints key campaign veterans to White House roles. President-elect Donald Trump has appointed Steven Cheung, communications director for his 2024 campaign, as director of communications for his upcoming administration. Cheung, known for his combative style as the 2016 campaign’s rapid response director, will be joined by Sergio Gor, head of Trump’s Super PAC Right for America, as director of the Presidential Personnel Office. “Steven Cheung and Sergio Gor have been trusted Advisors since my first Presidential Campaign in 2016,” Trump stated, expressing confidence in their commitment to “America First” values. Trump also named Karoline Leavitt as his second-term White House press secretary. She’s expected to be the youngest to ever hold the position. The 27-year-old New Hampshire native previously served as spokesperson his 2024 presidential campaign and will now become one of the most visible faces of his second term. — Trump met with investor Scott Bessent, seen as a top contender to lead the Treasury, after Fox Business host Larry Kudlow withdrew from consideration for that post or to head the National Economic Council. See related item below for details. — Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.) defeated his Republican challenger in California’s 9th Congressional District, the Associated Press projected. Harder, a member of Congress since 2019, faced Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln in a race that analysts predicted could become close. Harder had 52% of the votes and Lincoln had 48% as of Friday. An estimated 94% of votes had been counted. — Controversy over ballot counting in Pennsylvania Senate race. The Pennsylvania Senate race between incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick has become a focal point of controversy. The closely contested race has McCormick leading by approximately 26,000 votes, prompting an automatic statewide recount in accordance with Pennsylvania law. The dispute centers around mail-in ballots that are either undated or incorrectly dated on their return envelopes. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court previously ruled that such ballots should not be included in the official count. Nevertheless, Democratic officials in several counties, including Philadelphia, Bucks, Centre, and Montgomery, have counted these ballots, defying the court order. Democratic officials argue that rejecting ballots over clerical errors infringes on voters’ constitutional rights. Diane Ellis-Marseglia, a Democratic commissioner in Bucks County, emphasized this by stating, “I think we all know that precedent by a court doesn’t matter anymore in this country... If I violate this law, it’s because I want a court to pay attention. There’s nothing more important than counting votes.” Republicans have sharply criticized these actions, accusing Democrats of attempting to manipulate the election outcome. RNC Chairman Michael Whatley stated, “Let’s be clear about what’s happening here: Democrats in Pennsylvania are brazenly trying to break the law by attempting to count illegal ballots. They are doing this because they want to steal a senate seat.” The Republican National Committee (RNC) has filed four lawsuits to contest the counting of undated ballots by certain counties. Additionally, the GOP has petitioned the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to prevent counties from counting these disputed ballots. McCormick’s campaign has also initiated a separate lawsuit against Bucks County, specifically challenging the inclusion of 405 ballots that do not meet the date requirements. The controversy has reignited debates about election integrity and the interpretation of voting laws. While Democrats advocate for a more inclusive approach to ballot counting, Republicans stress the importance of adhering strictly to legal and court rulings. The final impact of this dispute on the Senate race’s outcome remains uncertain, though it appears unlikely to change the overall result without a significant number of additional ballots coming into play. — Thune on controversial Trump 2.0 nominees: “None of this is going to be easy.” — Trump has expressed interest in curtailing the powers of the Senate, the Pentagon, the Federal Reserve, the FTC, the FCC and legacy media companies, delighting some Republicans and causing alarm among lawmakers. A Trump transition spokeswoman did not respond to a request for comment. Link to more via the Wall Street Journal. — North Dakota approves Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline, advancing controversial project. Summit Carbon Solutions’ proposed carbon pipeline received a critical permit in North Dakota on Friday, bringing the company closer to meeting Iowa’s conditions to start construction. The 2,000-mile pipeline will transport CO2 from ethanol refineries across five states to underground storage. While the Iowa Utilities Commission granted Summit eminent domain earlier this year, North Dakota’s Public Service Commission approved the permit following plan revisions. Supporters, including Iowa’s Renewable Fuels Association, call the project vital for agriculture and biofuels. However, opponents like Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement continue to express concerns over environmental and community impacts, vowing ongoing resistance. — Biden, Xi agree they won’t give AI control over nuclear weapons. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a key agreement Saturday to ensure neither of their nations would allow artificial intelligence to control nuclear weapons, the White House announced. “This important statement on the intersection of artificial intelligence and nuclear doctrine reflects that, despite competition between the U.S. and the PRC, both sides can collaborate responsibly to mitigate risks in critical areas,” White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated. The agreement underscores leadership by the two nuclear powers in managing emerging technology. Sullivan clarified that this was not due to any imminent plans to hand over nuclear control to AI but was a proactive acknowledgment of the gravity of human control in nuclear decision-making. The agreement was made during what may be the final meeting between Biden and Xi on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Lima, despite existing tensions over U.S. export controls on high-end semiconductors crucial for AI development. Meanwhile, Xi expressed China’s willingness to collaborate with the incoming Trump administration to maintain communication, foster cooperation, and manage their differences. His remarks emphasized the need to avoid economic decoupling and supply chain disruptions, advocating instead for peaceful coexistence and technological cooperation. Biden echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the importance of dialogue to prevent conflicts and ensure the competitive nature of U.S./China relations remains manageable. The meeting took place against a tense backdrop, with Donald Trump’s incoming administration signaling a hardline stance on China, including potential heavy tariffs. Additionally, Biden and Xi addressed other issues such as China’s influence in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine and tensions over Taiwan, a major flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Biden’s recent meetings with Japanese and South Korean leaders also reflect regional concerns over China’s support for Russia and North Korea’s growing military presence. Amid these discussions, cybersecurity and technology restrictions remained high on the agenda, with the U.S. expressing concerns over Chinese state-sponsored cyber activities. |
WASHINGTON FOCUS |
Fiscal year (FY) 2025 spending, disaster aid, a new farm bill, a separate ag financial aid measure and conjecture over the fate of President-elect Donald Trump’s nominees so far are key focal points during the lame-duck session of Congress.
— House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) signaled he prefers to fund the government on a short-term basis. Speaking on Fox News Sunday, Johnson said “we’re running out of clock. Dec. 20 is the deadline.”
“We’re still hopeful that we might be able to get that done. But if not, we’ll have a temporary measure I think that would go into the first part of next year and allow us the necessary time to get this done. And I think that would be, ultimately, a good move. Because the country would benefit from it. Because then you’d have Republican control, and we’d have a little more say in what those spending bills are.”
— Speaker Johnson urges caution on Trump’s tax-cut plans. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) signaled a cautious approach to President-elect Donald Trump’s proposal to eliminate income taxes on tips, noting that funding for the initiative must be secured. In an appearance on CNN’s State of the Union, Johnson stated, “This is one of the promises that he wants to deliver on... We’re going to try to make that happen in the Congress. You’ve got to do the math.”
Johnson paired his comments with a commitment to quickly advance Trump’s economic agenda when the new Republican-majority Congress convenes. Trump’s tax-cut proposals, which include repealing taxes on overtime, Social Security checks, and tips, featured prominently in his successful bid for a return to the presidency.
“You have got to make sure that these new savings for the American people can be paid for and make sure the economy is a pro-growth economy,” Johnson added, fresh off accompanying Trump to a UFC event in New York’s Madison Square Garden.
Republicans face a busy tax agenda, with numerous provisions from their 2017 tax overhaul expiring at the end of 2025. Trump aims to extend personal income tax cuts and further reduce the corporate tax rate.
— Bipartisan push for hurricane aid funding intensifies. Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) is leading a bipartisan effort urging the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to swiftly send Congress a supplemental funding request for states hit by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. In a letter co-signed by senators and representatives from affected states, Budd and colleagues criticized OMB for delays, noting past requests were transmitted within weeks of disasters. The letter emphasizes urgent need: “Our constituents do not have the luxury of waiting any longer. They need help now.”
Signing the letter: Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.) signed onto the letter. In the House, Reps. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.), Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), David Rouzer (R-N.C.), Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) co-signed as well.
In the Senate, tensions flared as Tillis clashed with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who blocked a $550 million disaster loan replenishment bill over funding offsets. Tillis condemned the move, arguing disaster relief is no place for procedural games. Efforts to secure Small Business Admin. (SBA) funds will continue.
The disaster aid package may include payments to growers who saw their income drop sharply this year because of declines in commodity prices.
Of note: The push is on to link any ag financial aid to permanently increase the funding baseline for farm bill commodity programs.
A hearing on disaster aid will take place Wednesday before the Senate Appropriations Committee who will hear form Deputy USDA Secretary Xochitl Torres. An official USDA estimate of ag disaster funding needs could be revealed at the hearing, with some projections of $13 billion to $20 billion. Some past USDA disaster forecasts have proven too low.
To recap, farm-state lawmakers and the ag sector are pushing for three major items:
1. Disaster relief for production losses (2023-2024): Addressing financial setbacks faced by agricultural producers due to recent losses.
2. Economic assistance for the 2024 crop year: Modeled after the bipartisan Kelly (R-Miss.) bill, this measure aims to provide economic stability to farmers.
3. Five-year farm bill completion or improvements: Lawmakers are working on either passing a comprehensive five-year farm bill or incorporating enhanced farm safety nets and crop insurance under current legislation extensions to ensure continuity and certainty for agricultural operations.
New farm bill snag continues. Sen John Boozman (R-Ark.), the incoming Senate Ag Committee Chairman, emphasized that completing the farm bill “sooner is better” and noted the strong desire among members to finalize this legislation, especially after hearing concerns directly from farming communities. Incoming Ranking Member Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) echoed this sentiment, expressing hope for quick progress on the bill. However, current Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) has yet to release a draft text, despite encouragement from committee members such as Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), who urged for momentum even without full consensus.
In the House, Ag Committee Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) highlighted the urgent need for emergency relief and spoke favorably of the bipartisan “Farmer Assistance and Revenue Mitigation (FARM) Act” introduced by Congressman Trent Kelly (R-Miss.), suggesting its potential contribution to broader agricultural aid discussions.
Zippy Duvall, President of the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), stressed the importance of an immediate disaster and economic package to support farmers until a new farm bill is enacted. The AFBF, along with numerous agricultural groups, is actively lobbying for expedited congressional action on ad hoc relief and a strengthened farm safety net. A recent report from Farm Bureau (link) examines the cumulative $20 billion loss “in crops alone that has not been addressed with ad-hoc relief.” AFBF Economist, Daniel Munch, wrote, “With $20 billion in uncovered losses accumulated since 2022, farmers and ranchers are calling for timely disaster aid to keep their operations afloat. The financial strain on farmers without this assistance — or when relief arrives two or more years too late, as is often the case — threatens the viability of farms and the rural communities that depend on them. Immediate, comprehensive relief can enable these producers to recover, rebuild and prepare for future challenges.”
The 2024 Agricultural Lender Survey, released late last week and produced by the American Bankers Association (ABA) and the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, found that ag lenders expect only 58% of borrowers will remain profitable this year compared to 78% last year. According to a release from ABA (link), “The combination of lower export demand for U.S. agricultural goods and the rebound of global inventories has put significant downward pressure on global commodity prices and U.S. farm incomes… The No. 1 concern facing lending institutions in 2024 was credit quality and agricultural loan deterioration. Lender competition and interest rate volatility were the second and third greatest overall concerns, respectively.”
— Federal workforce targeted for efficiency review. The U.S. federal gov’t employs approximately 2.3 million civilian workers, a figure that has grown across various administrations. This workforce could face cuts under former President Donald Trump’s proposed Department of Government Efficiency, which aims to streamline federal operations. Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy are slated to lead this new cost-trimming initiative.
Currently, around 70% of federal civilian jobs are within military- or security-related agencies. The Department of Veterans Affairs has the largest number of employees, totaling 486,522, while the Department of Education has the fewest, with only 4,425 workers. Link to more on this topic via the Wall Street Journal.
— Trump’s key personnel announcements so far. Donald Trump Jr., a central figure in the transition, acknowledged the likely resistance to some appointments. “Some of them are going to be controversial,” he remarked on Fox News, “because they’ll actually get things done.” He emphasized that alternative candidates are ready if Senate confirmation falters, noting Senate Majority Leader-elect John Thune’s (R-S.D.) success was largely due to Trump’s influence. “We’re showing [Trump] lists of 10 or 12 people for every position,” Trump Jr. said. “So, we do have backup plans, but I think we’re obviously going with the strongest candidates first.”
· Chief of Staff: Trump named his senior campaign adviser Susie Wiles as his White House chief of staff, the first woman in history to hold the title. The Florida political consultant largely stays out of the spotlight, but has been credited with helping Trump’s political comeback.
· Attorney General: Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida has been nominated as the next Attorney General overseeing the Justice Department, that he has long criticized.
· Secretary of State: U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is nominated as the next Secretary of State. He will bring foreign policy experience through his roles in the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. A Cuban American, he is set to be the first Latino person to be Secretary of State.
· Director of National Intelligence: Former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is nominated as the director of national intelligence. The former Democratic presidential candidate-turned Republican represented Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District from 2013-2021.
· Deputy chief of staff for policy: Long-standing Trump adviser Stephen Miller has been tapped for deputy chief of staff for policy in Trump’s next administration. The 39-year-old served as senior adviser to Trump and director of speechwriting during the Republican’s first term in the White House and is credited with shaping Trump’s immigration policies.
· Ambassador to the United Nations: Trump nominated Elise Stefanik, a five-term Republican representing a northern New York district, as his pick for UN ambassador. She is the House Republican Conference Chair and a former contender for Trump’s running mate.
· Secretary of Health and Human Services: Trump has named Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. The 2024 independent candidate has previously criticized vaccines and questioned the origin of the Covid-19 virus. He is arguably best known for spreading unfounded claims about a link between childhood vaccines and autism.
· ‘Border czar': Trump has appointed Tom Homan to oversee deportation policy and aviation security. Homan was a Border Patrol agent for 34 years and served in Trump’s first administration as acting ICE director. He drew controversy for strict immigration enforcement, including the “zero-tolerance” policy which separated families of undocumented immigrants.
· EPA head: Trump has appointed Lee Zeldin as the administrator of The U.S. Environmental Protective Agency (EPA). Zeldin was a congressman for parts of Long Island, New York and ran but lost against Kathy Hochul in the 2022 gubernatorial race.
· National security adviser: Trump has named Florida Rep. Mike Waltz as his national security adviser. Waltz has held civilian positions at the Pentagon, was on the House Armed Services Committee and has supported Trump’s isolationist view of foreign relations.
· U.S. ambassador to Israel: Trump announced he is nominating former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as his U.S. ambassador to Israel. Huckabee is a Baptist minister and former Fox News host, who has run for the Republican presidential nomination twice, unsuccessfully. His daughter is Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who served as White House press secretary during Trump’s first presidency.
· Director of the Central Intelligence Agency: Trump designated his former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe as CIA director. Ratcliffe previously was a House member from Texas before serving as director of national intelligence at the end of Trump’s first presidency.
· Secretary of Defense: Trump nominated Fox News host Pete Hegseth to Defense secretary. Hegseth served in the U.S. Army National Guard and had led veteran’s advocacy groups.
· Secretary of Homeland Security: Trump announced his choice of South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to be the Secretary of Homeland Security. The pick puts the hardline conservative governor, who sent the state’s National Guard to the southern border, in a key role on immigration.
· White House Counsel: Trump tapped William McGinley to serve as his White House counsel. McGinley, a partner at the Washington-based law firm Holtzman Vogel, worked as White House Cabinet secretary during Trump’s first presidency.
· Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Trump named Doug Collins to be his secretary of the Department of Veterans Affairs. Collins, a former congressman from 2013 to 2021 and trusted Trump loyalist, is a chaplain of the United States Air Force Reserve Command.
· Secretary of Interior: Trump has nominated Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum to be his secretary of Interior coordinating federal policy to several territories. Burgum previously ran to be Republican presidential nominee before dropping out in December and has long been vocal about fossil fuels and energy issues. Trump added another position for Burgum: head of the newly formed National Energy Council (Energy czar).
· Energy Secretary Chris Wright, whose confirmation would place him on a new Council of National Energy, which will be led by Doug Burgum, Trump’s pick for Interior Secretary.
· U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York: Trump has nominated Jay Clayton as the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York. Clayton has previously served as chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission during Trump’s first term.
· Deputy attorney general: Trump has decided lawyer Todd Blanche will serve as deputy attorney general. Blanche is known for aggressively representing the president-elect in his New York hush money trial and in two federal criminal cases.
· Secretary of the Department of Veterans Affairs: Trump has nominated former Republican U.S. Rep. Doug Collins to be his secretary of the Department of Veterans Affairs. He served as a congressman representing Georgia’s 9th district from 2013 to 2021. A trusted Trump loyalist, he is a chaplain of the United States Air Force Reserve Command and served in the Iraq War in 2008.
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OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS |
Monday, Nov. 18
· President Joe Biden is in Brazil to attend the G20 conference through Tuesday and will attend an event launching the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty.
· Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee scheduled to speak.
· USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack attends the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan.
· Climate and energy resilience. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Driving Climate and Energy Resilience Through Cross-Sector Collaboration.”
· U.S./South Korea relations. Center for Strategic and International Studies 2024 Republic of Korea-US Strategic Forum.
· China company listings. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “Will China’s most dynamic companies keep listing outside the mainland?”
· Taiwan situation. George Washington University Center for Asian Studies discussion on “Pulse Check on Taiwan’s Democratic Resilience: Institutions, Domestic Debate, and New Governance Frontiers.”
· EXIM meeting. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) virtual meeting of the EXIM Advisory Committee, Sub-Saharan Africa Advisory Committee, and EXIM Advisory Councils for discussion of EXIM policies and programs to provide competitive financing to expand United States exports and comments for inclusion in EXIM’s report to the US Congress on Global Export Credit Competition.
· AI issues. American Bar Association virtual discussion on “AI Governance.”
· Ecological threats and conflict. Henry L. Stimson Center discussion on “The Evidence Base for Policy: Exploring New Data on the Relationship between Ecological Threats and Conflict.”
· Science and foreign policy. Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion on “The Interconnections of Science and Foreign Policy.”
Tuesday, Nov. 19
· TCJA issues ahead. Joint Economic Committee hearing on “Building on the Success of TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act): The 2025 Tax Policy Debate.”
· Trump tax policies. Urban Institute and Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center discussion on “What will tax policy look like in the new Trump administration?”
· Small business tax deduction. The Hill discussion on “The 20% Small Business Tax Deduction.”
· DOE/IEA. Department of Energy meeting of the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Industry Advisory Board with a focus on emergency response fundamentals: IEA oil emergency mechanisms, Current oil market risks, The importance of communication during a crisis, Key assessment factors. Runs through Thursday.
· Wildfire emissions. Environmental and Energy Study Institute and the Woodwell Climate Research Center virtual briefing on “Impacts of Growing Wildfire-Related Emissions on the Global Carbon Budget, the +1.5 Limit, and the Next NDCs.”
· Palestinians and Gaza. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “The End of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA)? Then What? — Gaza: The Human Toll.”
· Housing issues. Politico discussion with policymakers, local leaders and housing experts on “how to fix America’s housing crisis and build a foundation for financial prosperity.”
· Hong Kong national security laws. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on a new report, “In the Name of National Security: How Hong Kong’s National Security Laws Dismantle the Rule of Law in Comparative Perspective.”
· China’s industrial policy. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Does Chinese Industrial Policy Work?”
· FEMA disaster response. House Transportation and Infrastructure Economic Development, Public Buildings and Emergency Management Subcommittee hearing on “In the Eye of the Storm: Oversight of FEMA’s Disaster Readiness and Response.”
· Cybersecurity and transportation. House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee hearing on “Impacts of Emergency Authority Cybersecurity Regulations on the Transportation Sector.”
· Credit card fees. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on “Breaking the Visa-Mastercard Duopoly: Bringing Competition and Lower Fees to the Credit Card System.”
· USAID mission. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Leading USAID’s Global Mission for Impact.”
· USAID and Oct. 7 terrorist attack. U.S. Agency For International Development (USAID) virtual meeting of the Partnership for Peace Fund Advisory Board to receive updates on progress and changes to USAID programming under the Middle East Partnership for Peace Act (MEPPA) following the terrorist attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, and discuss recommendations for the strategic direction of MEPPA one year later.
· Economic growth in MENA countries. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion on “Economic Growth and Challenges in North Africa and the Middle East (MENA).”
· Decarbonization and industry. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation discussion on “How Can Decarbonization Boost U.S. Industrial Competitiveness?”
· Electricity issues. Department of Energy meeting of the Electricity Advisory Committee. Agenda includes: Introductory remarks from the Office of Electricity; Energy storage discussion; Supply chain discussion; Reliability and resilience discussion; and Subcommittee updates.
· U.S./Mexico border trafficking issues. House Homeland Security Border Security and Enforcement Subcommittee and Oversight, Investigations and Accountability Subcommittee joint hearing on “Trafficked, Exploited, and Missing: Migrant Children Victims of the Biden-Harris Administration.”
· China cybersecurity threat. Senate Judiciary Privacy, Technology, and the Law Subcommittee hearing on China’s cybersecurity threat.
· FEMA oversight. House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing on “Oversight of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.” FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell testifies.
· Consumer protection from AI scams. Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Consumer Protection, Product Safety, and Data Security Subcommittee hearing on protecting consumers from artificial intelligence enabled fraud and scams.
· Russian war in Ukraine. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “1,000 Days of Russia’s War on Ukraine.”
· American wellbeing. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Are Americans Better Off Now Than They Were in Recent Decades?”
Wednesday, Nov. 20
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook to speak on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy in Virginia; Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to speak on Approach to Agency Policymaking in Florida.
· Agricultural innovation and food security. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2024 AAAS Charles Valentine Riley Memorial Lecture, focusing on “From Wild Grains to CRISPR: The Journey of Agricultural Innovation and its Role in Global Food Security.”
· Post-election U.S./China trade relations. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “U.S./China trade relations after the U.S. elections.”
· U.S. elections and Europe. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Debriefing the U.S. elections and their implications for Europe.”
· AI issues. New America virtual discussion on “On Sovereign Artificial Intelligence (AI),” a part of the two-day Digital Futures Symposium.
· U.S./Korea/Japan relations. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs 2024 Global Korea Forum with the theme “Trilateral Cooperation and the Korean Peninsula: The U.S., South Korea, and Japan Partnership.”
· Safe Drinking Water Act. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on “Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Safe Drinking Water Act: Successes, Challenges, and Charting a Path Forward.”
· VA Health Administration shortfall. House Appropriations Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “Assessing the Veterans Health Administration FY 2025 Potential Shortfall.”
· Global threats. House Homeland Security Committee hearing on “Worldwide Threats to the Homeland.”
· Disaster funding needs. Senate Appropriations Committee hearing on “A Review of Disaster Funding Needs.” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl Torres Small among those testifying.
· Regulatory oversight. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “Oversight of Prudential Regulators.”
· Social Security Administration. House Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on the Social Security Administration. Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O’Malley testifies.
· Labor Department honoring farm workers. Labor Department hosts a ceremony to induct Larry Dulay Itliong, Philip Vera Cruz and Peter Gines Velasco, Filipino labor leaders of the Farmworkers’ Movement, to the department’s Hall of Honor.
· Trumponomics. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “Trumponomics.”
· AI issues. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on “Is AI Woke, In What Ways, and Should We Worry?”
· Tax policy issues. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Economic Policy Subcommittee hearing on “Tax Policy in 2025: Implications for the American Economy.”
· Refugee resettlement. House Judiciary Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of the Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Refugee Resettlement.”
· Freight transportation in 2025. National Association for Business Economics (NABE) virtual discussion on “Disruptions, Trends, and Outlooks: What Is in Store for Freight Transportation in 2025?”
· EV issues. Department of Energy virtual meeting of the Electric Vehicle Working Group for a report out and discussion lead by each of the three subcommittees: Medium/Heavy-Duty Adoption, Grid Integration and Charging Network, as well as for deliberation and voting on recommendations made by each subcommittee.
· Crypto investment scams. Institute of World Politics discussion on “Pig Butchering and National Security,” focusing on crypto investment scams.
Thursday, Nov. 21
· Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr to speak on Banks and Artificial Intelligence in Washington, DC. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack scheduled to speak.
· Global agriculture and food trends. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2024 AAAS-Riley Memorial Foundation Policy Breakfast and Roundtable, focusing on “Global Agriculture and Food Trade and Needs.”
· Animal disease threats. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Preventing, Detecting, and Responding to Animal Disease Threats: 20 Years of UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Diseases (ECTAD).”
· AI issues. FinRegLab hosts its 2024 AI Symposium.
· House member-elect room lottery. House Administration Committee holds the member-elect room lottery drawing.
· The de minimis exemption. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “Small packages, big questions: Valuing the de minimis exemption.”
· Digital markets panel. Commodity Futures Trading Commission virtual meeting of the Global Markets Advisory Committee (GMAC) to hear a presentation from the GMAC’s Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee on expanding use of non-cash collateral through use of distributed ledger technology and consider a recommendation from the subcommittee.
· FERC meeting. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission open meeting.
· Prevailing wage rates. Office of Personnel Management virtual meeting of the Federal Prevailing Rate Advisory Committee for the determination of prevailing wage rates for the Federal Wage System.
· Staffing an administration. Brookings Institution discussion on “Transitions: Planning and staffing a presidency.”
· Transatlantic energy issues. Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center virtual discussion on “the evolving landscape of transatlantic energy security, climate policy, and competitiveness under new European and U.S. leadership.”
· Homeland threats. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on “Threats to the Homeland.” Homeland Security Administrator Alejandro Mayorkas and FBI Director Christopher Wray to testify.
· Transatlantic AI issues. German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion on “Pivotal Powers: How Transatlantic Partners Can Engage Better on Global Governance, Security, and Artificial Intelligence.”
· U.S./Korea alliance. Hudson Institute discussion on “Strategic Challenges Facing the U.S./South Korea Alliance.”
· Energy issues. Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association 2024 annual Energy, Infrastructure and Environment Summit, with the theme “Enabling Clean, Efficient, Reliable and Secure Energy.”
· Nuclear power. Heritage Foundation virtual discussion on “Nuclear Revolution: Powering the Next Generation.”
· Global threats. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Russia and the Authoritarian Challenge,” focusing on the threat to U.S. interests from Russian aggression in Ukraine, as well as authoritarian partnerships with North Korea, Iran and China.
· Transportation cybersecurity. Transportation Security Administration meeting of the Surface Transportation Security Advisory Committee for briefings on cybersecurity information sharing, emergency management and resiliency, insider threat and security risk and intelligence.
· U.S./Japan financial system. Program on International Financial Systems hosts the 27th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Japan and the United States.
Friday, Nov. 22
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to speak on Artificial Intelligence in Washington, DC.
· U.S. trade agenda. Meridian International Center briefing on “Global Business Briefing: The Future of the U.S. Trade Agenda.”
· Indo-Pacific alliances. Brookings Institution discussion on “The future of alliances, partnerships, and the Indo-Pacific regional order.”
· Indo-Pacific maritime issues. Hudson Institute discussion on “Technology and Maritime Security Cooperation between NATO and the Indo-Pacific.”
· COP29 review. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “COP29 Takeaways for Africa: Lessons, Challenges, and the Path Forward.”
· Indo-Pacific relations. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Harnessing Progress: Strengthening the Indo-Pacific through Alliances and Partnerships.”
ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
The economic calendar is fairly light. Market participants will receive updates on the housing market, along with initial jobless claims. Flash PMI readings on manufacturing and the services sector will grab attention on Friday. There are also several Federal Reserve officials that will be giving speeches. On the earnings front, Nvidia, the world’s largest publicly listed company by market cap, gears up for its fiscal third quarter results scheduled on Wednesday.
Monday, Nov. 18
· Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee scheduled to speak.
· Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, runs through Tuesday
· Housing Market Index
Tuesday, Nov. 19
· Housing Starts
Wednesday, Nov. 20
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook to speak on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy in Virginia; Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to speak on Approach to Agency Policymaking in Florida.
· Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
Thursday, Nov. 21
· Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr to speak on Banks and Artificial Intelligence in Washington, DC. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack scheduled to speak.
· Jobless Claims
· Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
· Existing Home Sales
· Leading Indicators
· KC Fed Manufacturing
· Fed Balance Sheet
· Money Supply
Friday, Nov. 22
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to speak on Artificial Intelligence in Washington, DC.
· PMI Composite Flash
· Consumer Sentiment
KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
Ag focus this week: China’s second batch of October trade data will be released Monday, while the third set of numbers, including country breakdowns, will be out Wednesday. Focus during the week will be on Deere & Co. earnings and Grains Industry of Western Australia’s monthly crop report.
As for the energy sector, the COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, will run through a second week and is scheduled to conclude Nov. 22. China will publish data on energy trading during the week.
Monday, Nov. 18
Ag reports and events:
· Export Inspections
· Food Dollar Series
· Crop Progress
· China’s 2nd batch of October trade data, including agricultural imports
Energy reports and events:
· COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan; runs through Nov. 22
· China to publish second batch of October trade data, including LNG and pipeline gas imports; oil products trade breakdown
· OEUK Offshore Decommissioning Conference, St. Andrews, runs through Tuesday
· Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro (through Nov. 19)
· Commodity Trading Club annual summit, Dubai (through Nov. 20)
· Earnings: ONGC
· Holiday: Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela
Tuesday, Nov. 19
Ag reports and events:
· Food Expenditure Series
· Vegetables and Pulses Data
· Fruit & Tree Nut Data
· EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Energy reports and events:
· API US inventory report
· Argus European Crude Conference, London, runs through Wednesday
· Green Finance Forum, Frankfurt
· Commodity Trading Club annual summit, Dubai (through Nov. 20)
· WTI CSOs for December expire
Wednesday, Nov. 20
Ag reports and events:
· Supply and allocation of milk fat and skim solids by product (Annual)
· Broiler Hatchery
· Farm Labor
· Milk Production
· China’s 3rd batch of October trade data, including country breakdowns for commodities
· Malaysia’s Nov. 1-20 palm oil exports
Energy reports and events:
· EIA Petroleum Status Report
· Weekly Ethanol Production
· Genscape weekly crude inventory report
· WTI December futures expire
· China’s third batch of October trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities
· COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan (through Nov. 22)
· Commodity Trading Club annual summit, Dubai (last day)
· Earnings: Petronas Gas; Motor Oil
· Holiday: Brazil
Thursday, Nov. 21
Ag reports and events:
· Export Sales
· Sugar: World Markets and Trade
· Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set
· Livestock Slaughter
· Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
· Earnings: Deere & Co.
Energy reports and events:
· EIA Natural Gas Report
· Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
· BNEF Forum Geneva: Commodities of Tomorrow
· Montel UK Energy Day 2024, London
· COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan (through Nov. 22)
· Petrobras to publish Strategic Plan 2025-29
· Earnings: E.ON, Helleniq
Friday, Nov. 22
Ag reports and events:
· CFTC Commitments of Traders report
· Grains Industry of Western Australia monthly crop report
· FranceAgriMer’s weekly crop condition report
· Cotton Ginnings
· Cattle on Feed
· Chickens & Eggs
· Peanut Prices
Energy reports and events:
· Baker-Hughes Rig Count
· ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
· COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan (final day)
KEY LINKS |
WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | New farm bill primer | | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum |