Biden and Trump Tonight: Debate or Debase?

Yen | Farm bill | Aid for dairy farmers | WRDA | Climate-smart farming practices | EVs | Ag trade deficit

Jim Wiesemeyer

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June 27, 2024 08:21 AM

Today’s Digital Newspaper

Modified report today as I am in California speaking at the Cotton Warehouse Association of America annual meeting.

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: In Asia, Japan -0.8%. Hong Kong -2.1%. China -0.9%. India +0.7%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt +0.1%.

— U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow was up 15.64 points, 0.04%, at 39,127.80. The Nasdaq rose 87.50 points, 0.49%, at 17,805.16. The S&P 500 was up 8.60 points, 0.49%, at 5,477.90.

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker, with the euro and British pound firmer against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was nearly unchanged, trading around 4.33%, with a higher tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were firmer, with U.S. crude around $81.20 per barrel and Brent around $84.80 per barrel. Gold and silver were mixed, with gold higher around $2,324 per troy ounce and silver lower around $28.86 per troy ounce.

— The yen fell to more than ¥160 against the dollar, its weakest level in almost 40 years. Despite the finance ministry intervening to the tune of billions of dollars, the currency has been falling because of the gulf in interest rates between Japan and America. Relief is not imminent.

— Ag markets today: Corn, soybeans and wheat held in tight ranges during the overnight session that saw two-sided trade. As of 7:30 a.m. CT, corn futures were trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans were unchanged to 2 cents higher, SRW wheat was mostly a penny higher, HRW wheat was 1 to 5 cents lower and HRS wheat was steady to fractionally lower. The U.S. dollar index was down more than 150 points, and front-month crude oil futures were around 30 cents higher.

Cash cattle expectations building. Cash cattle trade has been slow to develop, with packers trying to buy cattle at lower prices after two weeks of record values and feedlots holding out for higher bids. Wednesday’s surge in cattle futures triggered speculation of higher cash cattle trade again this week, though that price action was mostly due to the big discount structure and technical trade.

Cash hog index, pork cutout slides pause. The CME lean hog index is up 7 cents to $89.92 as of June 25, while the pork cutout value firmed 21 cents to $95.52, potentially signaling a halt to the recent price declines. For futures to build on Wednesday’s strong corrective gains, additional strength will be needed in the cash index and wholesale pork values.

— Ag trade news: Saudi Arabia tendered to buy 595,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Jordan tendered to buy 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.

— USDA daily export sale: 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during MY 2024-2025.

— USDA export sales data show modest sales to China with pickup in new-crop cotton buys. USDA weekly Export Sales figures for the week ended June 20 showed no activity for wheat, with activity for 2023-24 including net sales of 2,427 metric tons of corn, 11,150 metric tons of sorghum, 77,700 metric tons of soybeans, and 19,951 running bales of upland cotton. The only activity for 2024-25 were net sales of 35,640 running bales of upland cotton. For 2024, net sales of 3,956 metric tons of beef and 396 metric tons of pork were reported.

— Slightly bigger U.S. hog herd expected. Analysts expect USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report this afternoon to show the U.S. hog herd increased 0.8% from year-ago as of June 1 to 74.139 million head. Market hog inventories are expected to be up 1.2%, while the breeding herd is anticipated to be down 2.7%. Analysts expect USDA to report a 0.9% bigger spring pig crop as increased litter size likely offset slightly fewer farrowings. Looking forward, analysts expect farmers to farrow 1.4% and 1.0% fewer sows during summer and fall, respectively. As always, USDA’s revisions to past data will be key.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

Corn: December corn dropped 6 1/2 cents to $4.36 1/2, near the session low.
Soy complex: August soybeans fell 3 1/4 cents to $11.42 1/4 and near the session low. September soybean meal fell $4.60 at $339.40 and nearer the session low. September soybean oil rose 73 points to 43.75 cents and nearer the session high.
Wheat: December SRW wheat rose 1/4 cent to $5.83, while December HRW wheat rose 3 cents to $5.99, each ending nearer the session low. December HRS futures rose 1/2 cent to $6.22 1/2.
Cotton: December cotton rose 27 points to 75.34 cents, nearer the session high and hit a three-week high.
Cattle: Live and feeder cattle futures surged again Wednesday, with the expiring June contract leaping $3.45 to $192.925, an all-time high for nearby live cattle futures. Most-active August cattle jumped $2.325 to $186.875. August feeder futures climbed $2.725 to $261.775, with late corn and soy weakness likely contributing to those gains.
Hogs: August lean hog futures jumped $2.225 to $88.975 and settled nearer session highs, while nearby July futures firmed 90 cents to $89.90.

— Tonight is the first debate between Biden and Trump and will likely determine who will be the next president, say several observers. There won’t be a live audience. And no interruptions — microphones will be muted unless it’s the candidate’s turn to speak. The debate begins at 9 p.m. ET and last 90 minutes, including two commercial breaks. More than half of the U.S. adult population will be watching the showdown, with “57% of the public saying they are extremely or very likely to tune into at least some of the debate or the follow-up commentary about it,” according to a new poll from the AP and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. More than a third are also highly likely to listen to or watch the first of the two scheduled debates live.

Hillary Clinton writes in the N.Y. Times that she’s the only person to have debated both Trump (in 2016) and Biden (in the ’08 primary). Expectations for Trump are so low, she says, “that if he doesn’t literally light himself on fire ... some will say he was downright presidential.” Biden “starts from a disadvantage because there’s no way he can spend as much time preparing as I did eight years ago. Being president isn’t just a day job.”

But others say if Biden makes it through the debate without any major gaffe or focus problem, he could get a. post-debate boost, especially among independent voters.

The Washington Post concludes: “Whichever candidate seems more focused on the future will prevail in the Trump/Biden rematch.”

Analysts anticipate Biden is prepared to confront Trump about his criminal conviction, denial of the election results that led to the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and other grievances that could spark heated exchanges.

— Nate Silver’s 2024 forecast gives Trump a 65.7% chance of winning, despite Biden likely edging the popular vote. Nate Silver, a well-known election analyst and statistician, has released his forecast for the 2024 presidential race, giving former President Donald Trump a 65.7% chance of winning over President Joe Biden. Silver’s model, based on 40,000 simulations, suggests Biden is likely to narrowly win the national popular vote by a margin of 47.2% to 47.1%. However, Trump is predicted to secure 287 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 needed for a victory.

Silver highlights the significant challenge for Biden, who must replicate his previous success in key battleground states. If Biden loses states like Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, he must win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, a scenario Silver’s model finds difficult

In his blog, Silver acknowledges his preference for Biden but sees Trump as the more likely winner due to the Electoral College dynamics.

This prediction differs from FiveThirtyEight, Silver’s former company, which currently gives Biden a slight edge with a 51% chance of winning. Silver’s model draws parallels to the 2012 election, where swing state polls consistently favored Obama despite close national polls. Silver has also voiced concerns about Biden’s re-election prospects, even suggesting he consider dropping out of the race.

Meanwhile, Gallup released polling showing Biden’s approval stuck at 38%, Trump’s favorable rating up to 46%, and voters are far more concerned about Biden’s age than Trump’s.

— USDA will soon announce financial aid for dairy farmers affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) through the Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm-Raised Fish (ELAP) program. The aid will cover 28 days of milk loss per cow over a 134-day period, based on the monthly all-milk price and expected milk production per cow. Of the 28 days, 21 will be covered at full loss and 7 at 50% loss. Eligibility requires a positive test from a federally approved lab and milk production during the period. Details will be shared in public briefings with impacted states on Thursday and Friday.

— The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee approved the 2024 Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) with a 61-2 vote. The legislation authorizes the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to conduct studies and projects on flood mitigation, coastal resilience, and ecosystem restoration. Despite several proposed amendments, only one was accepted. Committee Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) noted extensive participation, with over 350 members submitting more than 1,900 requests. The measure aims to streamline project development and increase flexibility for non-federal sponsors. The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee approved their version in May with a 19-0 vote.

— The push is on to get Sen. Stabenow (D-Mich.) to release farm bill text and CBO scoring. Reason: Sources say that could reveal funding for Title I safety net program declines, with funding increases for food and nutrition and conservation. Others say Stabenow’s total farm bill funding may be much higher than most think. Also, actual text and CBO scoring would show details on the supposed $5 billion in additional farm bill spending Stabenow says she has received from Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). Says one farm bill veteran: “Is Stabenow trying to hide something by not releasing text and details on scoring?”

— Does a new farm bill have to be budget neutral? A projection of spending under status quo policy (i.e. current law) becomes the farm bill baseline. And, if spending on the new proposal matches the baseline, then it is said to be “budget neutral.”

Of note: Congress can just choose to spend what it wants. It doesn’t have to be budget neutral… but spending over the baseline simply opens it up to budget points of order. But few things go thru the normal process these days where that sort of thing matters. Much just ends up in a supplemental where spending is simply a matter of what they get broad agreement on.

— Farm bill prediction from a veteran analyst: “For what it’s worth, I think the best (only) chance of a farm bill this year is in a broad supplemental (or omnibus spending bill) where spending on Title 1 won’t matter…and where SNAP is left alone.”

— Force majeure has been issued for multiple plants impacted by the NW Corn Belt flood. The issue at hand will be shortage of finished products or shipments of expected grain.

The recent flooding in the northwestern Corn Belt has led to significant disruptions in agricultural operations, prompting the issuance of force majeure declarations for multiple plants in the region. This situation is expected to result in shortages of finished products and delays in grain shipments. The force majeure declarations for corn shipping stations were based on flooding along the Illinois River. This flooding made it impossible to load out grain at several regular shipping stations, prompting the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and CME Group Inc. to issue the force majeure notices.

Link to our Special Report on the topic released Wednesday.

— USDA seeks public input on climate-smart farming standards for biofuel feedstocks to reduce GHG emissions. USDA is seeking public input on procedures for quantifying, reporting, and verifying the effects of climate-smart farming practices on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for U.S.-grown biofuel feedstock crops. This input is aimed at establishing voluntary standards for biofuel feedstocks grown using practices that reduce GHG emissions and/or sequester soil carbon, as authorized by the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008. These standards could be considered in international, national, or state clean transportation fuel policies to incentivize climate-smart biofuel feedstock crops.

Currently, clean fuel transportation policies do not differentiate between crops grown with conventional practices and those using climate-smart practices, such as cover crops or no-till methods, which can reduce on-farm GHG emissions. Following the U.S. Treasury’s guidance on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) tax credit and the USDA Climate-Smart Agriculture Pilot Program, this Request for Information (RFI) aims to inform the development of a robust standard that creates market opportunities for U.S. farmers and provides reliable environmental benefits.

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack emphasized that creating opportunities for biofuels policies to reflect climate-smart farming practices would enable new markets for American producers and incentivize further GHG emissions reductions. This initiative could lower overall GHG emissions associated with biofuel production and provide other environmental benefits, such as improved water quality and soil health. Accurate quantification and verification are essential to ensure that net GHG emissions reductions are genuine, thereby improving credibility and confidence in various climate-smart markets.

In a release announcing the RFI, USDA noted, “Following the issuance of U.S. Treasury’s guidance on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) tax credit, including the USDA Climate-Smart Agriculture Pilot Program, this Request for Information will help inform options for a robust standard that creates additional market opportunities for US farmers and provides reliable environmental benefits.”

However, the SAF credits are not mentioned in the RFI. Rather the Federal Register notice states that USDA is “considering a rulemaking to establish voluntary standards for quantifying, reporting, and verifying GHG outcomes for domestic agricultural commodities used as biofuel feedstocks and grown with practices that mitigate GHG emissions and/or sequester soil carbon. These standards would be available for consideration by entities that operate international, national, or state clean transportation fuel policies.”

USDA cited the 2008 Farm Bill as providing authority for setting the standards as the law calls on USDA to “establish technical guidelines that outline science-based methods to measure the environmental services benefits from conservation and land management activities in order to facilitate the participation of farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners in emerging environmental services markets.”

The law also calls on USDA to “give priority to the establishment of guidelines related to farmer, rancher, and forest landowner participation in carbon markets” and directs USDA to set verification guidelines.

“Because of the existence of clean transportation fuel programs, there is an existing environmental service market for biofuel feedstocks,” USDA stated. “The potential incorporation of feedstocks produced with climate-smart practices into these programs represents an emerging environmental service market opportunity for farmers.”

USDA said it considers corn, soybeans, sorghum, and spring canola as “the dominant biofuel feedstock crops” and is “considering winter oilseed crops (brassica carinata, camelina, pennycress, and winter canola) and wants to know if other potential biofuel feedstocks exist that should be analyzed as part of the effort.

USDA’s RFI, published in the Federal Register (link) on June 27, 2024, seeks feedback on:

Biofuel feedstock crops and practices for USDA’s analysis.
Scientific data and analysis for quantifying GHG emissions outcomes of climate-smart and conventional farming practices.
Necessary records and data for verifying practice adoption and maintenance.
Systems to trace feedstocks throughout the biofuel supply chain.
Third-party verification of practice adoption and maintenance.

Of note: The RFI is available at link, and comments may be submitted by July 25, 2024.

— BP is scaling back its investment in renewables, implementing a hiring freeze and pausing new offshore wind projects under CEO Murray Auchincloss. This shift contrasts with former CEO Bernard Looney’s strategy, which reduced fossil fuel spending in favor of renewable energy. BP now plans to focus on new oil and gas assets, including potential acquisitions in the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. shale areas. However, the company will still consider biofuel and low-carbon businesses that offer near-term financial returns.

— USDA announced over $375 million in aid for clean energy projects across the U.S. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack detailed that over $250 million in low-interest loans will fund five projects from Kentucky to Alaska through the Powering Affordable Clean Energy (PACE) program, with nearly $100 million in grants and loans for 473 projects in 39 states and Puerto Rico via the Rural Energy for America Program.

The largest PACE loans, $100 million each, will support two rural electric cooperatives in Alaska: the Golden Valley Electric Association (GVEA) and the Alaska Electric and Energy Cooperative. GVEA will build a 46-megawatt battery storage system, upgrade a substation, and connect a solar farm, benefiting 100,000 residents in interior Alaska. USDA will forgive 60% of GVEA’s loan due to support from Doyon Limited, an Alaska Native corporation.

Other PACE loans include $55.2 million to Sierra Southwest Cooperative Services in Arizona for three battery storage projects, $16.6 million to Lock 11 Hydro Partners for a 3-megawatt hydroelectric plant in Kentucky, and $3.6 million to Bluestem Energy Solutions for a 2-megawatt community solar project in Nebraska.

Separately, the FCC will vote on July 18 on allowing schools and libraries to use E-Rate funding to loan out Wi-Fi hotspots, aiming to bridge the homework gap for students lacking internet access.

— Speaker Johnson: Trump’s tip tax exemption on 2025 agenda. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) says he expects Donald Trump’s proposal to exempt tipped wages from taxation to be a part of the first 100 days agenda next year. Johnson calls it a “very good idea” but doesn’t know if it will pass the current Senate. “We will pass it as soon as we can,” Johnson said at a press conference.

— Survey: Nearly half of EV owners plan to switch back to gas-powered cars. A new survey by McKinsey & Co. reveals significant buyer’s remorse among electric vehicle (EV) owners, with nearly half of U.S. respondents planning to switch back to gas-powered cars. The survey, which included 37,000 drivers worldwide and 4,100 in the U.S., found that 29% of global EV owners and 46% of U.S. EV owners are likely to revert to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles for their next purchase.

Key reasons for this dissatisfaction include:

Public charging infrastructure: Over a third of participants cited a shortage of public charging stations as a major issue.
Cost and convenience: High costs and the inconvenience of recharging, particularly on long trips, were significant concerns.
Home charging difficulties: A quarter of EV owners reported difficulties in charging their cars at home.

Despite these findings, other surveys show high satisfaction rates among EV owners. For instance, a poll by CDK Global found that 73% of EV owners plan to continue buying electric cars. Similarly, a Recurrent survey reported that 78% of EV owners rated their experience with five stars, and 20% with four stars.

The McKinsey survey also noted that among ICE car owners, 38% would consider buying an EV or a plug-in hybrid next. However, recent trends indicate a cooling demand for EVs in the U.S., with a 15.3% decline in EV sales in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter. This is the first such decline since 2020, driven largely by a drop in Tesla sales. Tesla has responded by cutting prices, leading to a surge in used EV inventories and plummeting prices, partly due to rental company Hertz selling off 20,000 Teslas from its fleet.

— Understanding the growing U.S. agricultural trade deficit: the fall in exports. USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service project a record agricultural trade deficit for fiscal year (FY) 2024, with exports at $170.5 billion and imports at $202.5 billion, resulting in a $32 billion deficit. This marks a significant shift as U.S. agricultural exports have historically surpassed imports. FY2023 saw a notable deficit of $16.7 billion, half of the projected FY2024 deficit.

The decline in exports is a key factor, according to Southern Ag Today (link). U.S. agricultural export volumes have dropped significantly, from a record 230 million metric tons (MMT) in 2021 to 190 MMT in 2023, despite stable prices. Export values decreased by only 1.4% due to high prices in 2022 and 2023. Major declines were seen in exports to China (down 30.9%), Southeast Asia/ASEAN (down 14.2%), Japan (down 26.6%), South Korea (down 34.6%), Taiwan (down 17.9%), and Guatemala (down 22.2%).

Product-wise, U.S. corn exports to China fell by 70%, other coarse grains by 34%, and wheat by 57%. Ethanol exports to China nearly ceased. The significant reduction in exports to China is a major contributor to the overall decline in U.S. agricultural exports.

— China is set to embark on a series of urgent economic reforms, focusing on enhancing its “high-level socialist market economy,” according to a front-page commentary in the Communist Party’s official newspaper, People’s Daily. This announcement comes ahead of the party’s third plenum next month (July 15 to 18), a significant event for setting economic strategies for the next five to ten years.

The reforms, highlighted in the commentary by Ren Zhongping, will prioritize the “reform of the economic system” and aim to “uphold and develop the basic economic system.” Key goals include improving coordination among various departments to prevent inefficiencies and ensuring that officials treat the reform process as a significant political responsibility. The reforms aim to uphold fundamental principles while fostering innovation without making critical errors.

The commentary also reflected on the successes since the third plenum in 2013, under President Xi Jinping’s leadership, which emphasized the market’s decisive role in resource allocation. Significant achievements include the rapid establishment of Tesla’s second Gigafactory in Shanghai, the development of 22 free-trade zones, the Hainan Free Trade Port, the Xiongan New Area, and the Greater Bay Area initiative.

The third plenum, historically a landmark event since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in 1978, continues to be crucial for China’s economic direction, involving key decisions by the Central Committee, the Politburo, and other top officials. The upcoming plenum is expected to further consolidate China’s efforts towards comprehensive and coordinated economic reforms.

— Despite escalating trade tensions and tariffs, China remains committed to maintaining and expanding its trade relationship with the United States, according to Ren Hongbin, chairman of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade. Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions in Dalian, Ren emphasized that Sino/U.S. trade is fundamentally “win-win cooperation.”

Key Points:

U.S. market importance:
- The U.S. remains China’s largest export market despite tariffs and supply chain diversification efforts.
- In 2023, Mexico surpassed China as the top source of U.S. imports for the first time in 17 years.
Emerging markets:
- Emerging markets and developing countries now account for 56.7% of China’s trade volume, surpassing traditional partners like the U.S. and Europe.
Tariff challenges:
- The U.S. has recently imposed a 100% duty on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), even though imports from China are minimal.
- The EU and Canada have also announced or are considering increased tariffs on Chinese EVs.
Globalization and Trade Routes:
- Li Dongsheng, chairman of electronics giant TCL, criticized the use of administrative power to disrupt trade, calling it “unsustainable.”
- Tariffs have forced TCL to alter its supply chain, now assembling products in countries like Vietnam and Mexico instead of China, which increases costs for American consumers.
Manufacturing and Global Economy:
- Li noted that while China’s manufacturing sector accounts for 30% of global output, it should now focus on exporting manufacturing capacity to other countries to support global economic growth, rather than just exporting goods.

— More than 330 agriculture groups have called on Congress to offer clarity of FIFRA labeling provisions to prevent disruptions to commerce and continued grower access to pesticides (link to letter). In response to that call to act, Reps. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) and Jim Costa (D-Calif.) introduced a bipartisan bill, HR 4288, the Agricultural Labeling Uniformity Act, in June 2023, which drew more than 360 groups in support. That bill has drawn eight bipartisan co-sponsors and was ultimately the language included in the House farm bill.

The agriculture, environment, academic, infrastructure, and other industry groups have urged Congress to reaffirm federal pesticide preemption on labeling and packaging to prevent significant negative impacts on food security, the environment, public health, and infrastructure. The Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) currently mandates that states cannot impose labeling or packaging requirements different from those set by the federal government. However, some states have recently attempted to enforce health claim labels that contradict federal regulations.

In their letter to congressional leaders, the 332 signatories stressed the importance of maintaining federal preemption to avoid a disjointed system of state labels that could disrupt commerce and hinder access to essential pesticides. They argue that contradictory state regulations could erode public trust in science-based regulations and complicate access to vital crop protection tools, ultimately harming food supply and environmental conservation efforts.

Key points from industry leaders:

Brad Doyle (American Soybean Association): Emphasized the need for predictable access to pesticides for crop protection and conservation practices. Warned against the risks of a fragmented labeling system disrupting pesticide access.
Tom Haag (National Corn Growers Association): Highlighted the critical role of science-based crop protection tools in farming success. Stated that conflicting state labels undermine public confidence in the EPA’s authority and scientific regulation.
Nicole Berg (National Association of Wheat Growers): Pointed out the heightened importance of farmers’ ability to feed the world amid challenges like drought, war, and supply chain issues. Advocated for uniform federal labeling to ensure access to necessary crop protection tools.

Additionally, many of these groups had previously sent a letter to President Biden, urging the withdrawal of a brief by the Solicitor General to the Supreme Court, which suggested that state health claim labels are not preempted by federal regulations.

Bottom line: The collective call for Congress to reaffirm federal preemption aims to prevent the emergence of inconsistent state regulations that could undermine societal needs and the effectiveness of the federal regulatory framework.

— GOP-led states lost their bid to block the Biden administration from contacting social media companies to remove misinformation, as the Supreme Court ruled Wednesday, they do not have standing to challenge the government’s work with social media platforms — delivering a blow to conservatives’ long-standing complaints that platforms are purportedly biased against them. Justices ruled 6-3 the states did not have standing to bring the case, as they could not show any personal harm to them that was caused by the government’s contacts.

— The U.S. Supreme Court struck down part of a federal anti-corruption law, ruling that state and local officials can accept gifts and payments for past favors without being charged with a crime, unless there is proof of an illegal deal. This decision came from a 6-3 vote and overturned the conviction of a former Indiana mayor who accepted a $13,000 payment after helping a truck dealership win $1.1 million in city contracts.

The majority opinion, written by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, distinguished between bribery, which requires evidence of an explicit illegal agreement, and gratuities, which can be gifts for past actions without an illicit deal. The ruling emphasized that the federal law in question was a bribery statute, not a gratuities law, and left the regulation of gratuities to state and local governments.

Justices Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor, and Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented, arguing that the law was intended to cover corrupt payments even if they were not part of an explicit quid pro quo arrangement. Justice Jackson highlighted the threat to the integrity of public institutions posed by officials using their positions for private gain.

The decision impacts approximately 20 million local and state officials covered by the federal anti-corruption law, including those at institutions receiving federal funds. The ruling also comes amid scrutiny of Supreme Court justices for accepting undisclosed gifts from wealthy patrons.

— EU to reimpose ‘emergency brake’ tariffs on Ukrainian sugar, eggs. The EU is set to reimpose tariffs on Ukrainian sugar and egg imports from Friday, using the “emergency brake” mechanism, the Financial Times reported citing two people familiar with the matter. Tariffs of 89 euros ($95.14) per metric ton on eggs and sugar will be introduced starting on Friday, similar to the tariff that was reintroduced on Ukrainian oats last week that will last until June 2025.

— Scientists discover precise RNA bridge gene-editing technique at California’s Arc Institute. Scientists at California’s Arc Institute have discovered a new gene-editing technique called the RNA bridge method, which allows for precise DNA modifications without breaking and repairing sequences, the Financial Times reported (link). This method, described as a “word processor for the living genome,” uses RNA to direct enzymes known as recombinases for genetic edits. It promises to expand the capabilities of existing methods like Crispr, enhancing research in various fields from disease prevention to reducing cows’ methane emissions. Patrick Hsu, a core investigator at Arc Institute and assistant professor of bioengineering at UC Berkeley, highlighted the method’s potential for sequence-specific DNA modifications. The discovery, published in Nature, could drive advancements in genome modification, providing more flexibility and precision.

The RNA bridge technique has shown success in bacteria, but its applicability to mammals, including humans, remains to be tested. Researchers need to ensure it works in large genomes to avoid unwanted edits. The innovation is seen as a significant step forward in gene editing, potentially leading to more sophisticated biotechnological tools and therapies.

The Arc Institute, founded in 2021, collaborates with several prestigious universities and is funded by notable figures, including Patrick Collison of Stripe. The institute aims to develop computational tools to address complex diseases.

— Farm Bureau: Record-high July 4th cookout costs: inflation hits the backyard. As Americans prepare to celebrate the Fourth of July with fireworks, food, and parades, they should expect higher costs for their cookout. This year’s American Farm Bureau market basket survey indicates that a cookout for ten people will cost $71.22, a 5% increase from last year and 30% higher than five years ago. This translates to $7.12 per person, the first time it has surpassed $7.

On the Grill:

Meat: Ground beef, pork chops, and chicken breast make up 50% of the total cookout cost.
- Ground beef: $12.77 for 2 pounds, up 11% from last year.
- Pork chops: $15.49 for 2 pounds, up 8% nationally, even higher in California due to Proposition 12.
- Chicken breast: $7.83 for 2 pounds, a 4% decrease from last year.

The Fixins:

Cheeseburgers: Hamburger buns cost $2.71, up 7%.
Dairy:
- American cheese slices: $3.57, up 1%.
- Ice cream: $5.65 for a half-gallon, up 7%.
Lemons and Sugar:
- Lemons: $3.20 for 1.5 pounds, up 13% due to a citrus disease outbreak.
- Sugar: Increased by 11%, contributing to the higher cost of fresh-squeezed lemonade, now $4.19.
Potato Salad: Down 4%, balancing higher egg prices with lower potato prices.

Other Items:

Pork and beans, potato chips, chocolate chip cookies, and strawberries are all up from last year.
Regional price differences exist, with the West being the most expensive at $80.88 for a party of ten.

Economic Context:

General inflation and supply chain disruptions are significant contributors to the increased costs.
Despite the rising grocery prices, the U.S. food system remains the most affordable globally, with Americans spending 6.7% of their expenditures on food and non-alcoholic beverages.
Farm incomes are dropping while production expenses and interest rates are rising, impacting farmers’ financial stability.

— NWS weather: Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the northern/central Plains Thursday expands into the Midwest Friday... ...Dangerously hot conditions continue over portions of the southern Plains... ...Monsoon-like conditions persist for the Four Corners Region.

KEY LINKS

Policy Updates