News/Markets/Policy Updates: July 25, 2024
— Biden addressed the nation from the Oval Office and spoke not just about his decision not to seek re-election, but also about what he intends to do with the roughly six months he has left in office. Biden acknowledged the need for new leadership, stating it was “time to pass the torch” to younger voices. He emphasized that this was the best way to unite the country and bring fresh perspectives to governance. Without directly naming Donald Trump, Biden stressed the importance of defending democracy, stating that it is “more significant than any title.” He framed the upcoming election as a choice between progress and regression, hope and hatred, unity and division. Biden praised Vice President Harris, describing her as “tough” and “capable.” He expressed confidence in her leadership abilities and positioned her as his likely successor. Biden affirmed his commitment to remain active during his final months in office. He outlined an agenda that includes efforts to end the conflict in Gaza, reduce costs for families, uphold personal liberties, and address gun violence. Biden described his time as president as “the privilege of my life” and highlighted his administration’s achievements in areas such as the economy, infrastructure, civil rights, and international relations. He stressed the power of the American people, stating, “The remarkable aspect of America is that here, kings and dictators do not govern — the people do.” He urged citizens to recognize their role in shaping the country’s future. While not directly addressing concerns about his age, Biden acknowledged the importance of “fresh voices” and “younger voices” in leadership. Comments: Biden really didn’t address the 800 lb gorilla — his debate performance and other things that led him to exit the presidential race. — Barack Obama will endorse VP Kamala Harris for president soon, NBC reported. — DNC delegates will meet virtually within the next two weeks to confirm Harris as their nominee for president. The exact date of the vote — sometime between Aug. 1 and Aug. 7 — will be decided by the convention’s co-chairs. — Trump shooter motive still being probed: FBI head. The U.S. probe into the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump is ongoing and investigators are still assessing the motive of the shooter, according to the head of the FBI. Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Christopher Wray told lawmakers on Wednesday that his agency is working “tirelessly” to get to the bottom of the July 13 shooting. The FBI is leading the probe. The FBI has said its investigation so far indicates the gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks, acted alone, wasn’t known to the bureau prior to the attack and that technicians have accessed his phone and are analyzing his electronic devices. Wray told lawmakers on Wednesday that investigators had found eight cartridges on the roof of the building from which officials have said shots were fired. He added that investigators think that Crooks flew a drone in the area about two hours prior to the shooting and had two “relatively crude” explosive devices in his car when he was on the roof that could be remotely detonated. A week before the July 13 rally, Crooks searched “how far away was Oswald from Kennedy,” indicating premeditation. Wray informed the House Judiciary Committee that Crooks fixated on Trump and the rally, registering to attend on the same day. Besides the FBI’s investigation, lawmakers have also launched probes. — Harris campaign chair argues vice president in strong position for November election. A memo from Harris campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon asserts that Vice President Kamala Harris is well-positioned to win the upcoming November election. The memo highlights Harris’s ability to expand the coalition that elected her and President Biden, and her appeal to swing voters. O’Malley Dillon outlines three main reasons for Harris’s favorable position: strong support from 2020 Biden-Harris voters, the potential to expand this coalition, and her unique appeal to undecided voters due to her new role as the Democratic nominee. Significant enthusiasm is also evident, with the campaign raising $126 million between Sunday and Tuesday evening. The memo cites Harris’s strong backing from key Democratic base groups, including Black, Latino, women, and young voters. Polls show Harris leading former President Trump by 54 points among Black voters and performing better than both Trump and Biden among Latino voters. Harris’s focus on abortion rights, especially after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, is expected to draw additional voters. Her efforts to protect abortion access are seen as a critical issue for many voters. The memo also notes that Harris’s candidacy makes the race more fluid, potentially appealing to undecided voters unfamiliar with her. O’Malley Dillon emphasizes that Harris has advantages on key issues and aims to win over these voters. The Harris campaign will concentrate on Blue Wall states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) but also sees potential in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. These states are considered viable due to Harris’s support from young and minority voters, offering multiple pathways to the necessary 270 electoral votes. Despite the positive outlook, Harris faces attacks from Republicans, particularly on immigration, branding her the “border czar.” However, some Republicans have advised against using racist and sexist attacks, emphasizing that the election should focus on policies rather than personalities. — Harris on trade policy: Harris quickly embraced parts of President Biden’s economic agenda that didn’t make it into law. She is “a classic progressive who is skeptical of trade but doesn’t want to go as far as Trump in terms of imposing blanket tariffs,” a former Biden official said, according to Axios. — Sen. Grassley believes Donald Trump will win the presidency regardless of who the Democratic nominee is, citing two main issues: Border security and cost of living. In remarks Wednesday, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said these topics will dominate the campaign and work in Trump’s favor. Grassley blasted Vice President Kamala Harris, calling her a “San Francisco liberal” and “very, very partisan.” Claimed he couldn’t recall any speeches she gave on agriculture and criticized her actions during the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings. Harris did engage with some farm-related issues: Co-sponsored legislation on farmworker protections and supported climate change initiatives affecting agriculture. She voted for the 2018 Farm Bill but agriculture was not a primary focus of her Senate career or presidential campaign. Grassley specifically mentioned Harris’s attempt to “shut down” the Kavanaugh hearing. This likely refers to her pointed questioning of Kavanaugh, which gained significant attention. Harris pressed Kavanaugh on whether he had discussed the Mueller investigation with anyone at a specific law firm. She asked if Kavanaugh could think of any laws giving the government power over the male body, highlighting the gender disparity in reproductive rights legislation. These exchanges were widely circulated and praised by Harris’s supporters, while critics viewed them as overly aggressive. — Donald Trump focused on abortion at a rally yesterday, to position himself as moderate on the issue, and targeted Harris, who he called a “radical left lunatic.” Trump argued that she was soft on crime, as he assailed her stances on immigration and gun rights. |
Today’s Digital Newspaper |
MARKET FOCUS
· U.S. economy expanded 2.8% in Q2, above expectations of 2%, up from 1.4% in Q1
· Stock trading ban advances in Senate, but…
· John Deere lays off more salaried employees
· EU set to approve Bunge purchase of Viterra
· Summer liquidity and VIX behavior
· South Korea’s economy shrank by 0.2% in the second quarter
· Ag markets today
· HRS tour Day 2
· Cold Storage Report out this afternoon
· NWS outlook
· Pro Farmer First Thing Today items
CONGRESS
· House cancels votes for next week, breaks until Sept. 9
· Ranking House Ag Member Scott blasts decision to cancel next week’s votes
ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT
· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress
· Israel Defense Forces announced they destroyed around 50 sites
CHINA
· China lowers borrowing costs again, surprising markets
· China concerned about EU’s protectionism on biodiesel
· ASIC’s accusation against COFCO subsidiaries
· China tightens rules on confidential information amid espionage concerns
LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY
· GAO report highlights college student food insecurity and SNAP underutilization
OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE
· Comment period reopens re: banning fluorinated polyethylene in food-contact products
MARKET FOCUS |
— Equities today: Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight, following the rout in the U.S. stock market Wednesday that pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes to five-week lows. Risk aversion in the marketplace is keener late this week. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady-weaker openings.
U.S. equities yesterday: Big losses for U.S. equities at midweek, with the Dow down 504.22 points, 1.25%, at 39,853.87. The Nasdaq dropped 654.94 points, 3.64%, at 17,342.41. The S&P 500 declined 128.61 points, 2.31%, at 5,427.13.
— Stock trading ban advances in Senate, but... The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee approved legislation banning members of Congress from buying and selling stocks. A bipartisan group of senators struck a deal on the proposal earlier this month after months of negotiations. The vote was 8-4, with Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.) voting against it. It’s unclear whether the bill will get a floor vote.
— John Deere has recently laid off a significant number of salaried employees as part of ongoing workforce reductions. On Wednesday, Deere notified Iowa Workforce Development Wednesday that 103 workers — 34 in Dubuque and 69 in Waterloo — were being laid off immediately. These layoffs are part of a broader trend of workforce reductions at John Deere, which have been ongoing for several months. Deere comments. “As the largest global manufacturer of agricultural equipment, John Deere, like many others in our industry, faces significant economic challenges, rising operational and manufacturing costs, and reduced customer demand,” Deere said in a statement Wednesday. “While the decision to reduce roles across the company was a challenging one, the company is confident that these adjustments, coupled with our ongoing efforts to reduce costs and align production and inventory levels, will position John Deere strongly for the future,” the company said in its statement. So far this year, Deere has cut about 1,830 workers in Ankeny, Dubuque, Ottumwa, Urbandale, Waterloo and the Quad Cities’ Davenport and East Moline, Illinois, plants, as well as at an Urbandale research center. Deere says it employed about 22,600 salary and production workers in Iowa and the Quad Cities at the start of the year. The company has cited declining customer demand, rising operational and manufacturing costs, and economic uncertainties as the primary reasons for these cuts. John Deere has experienced a 20% decline in sales from 2023 to 2024, which has significantly impacted its financial performance. In response to these challenges, John Deere has implemented several cost-containment strategies, including a global hiring freeze. However, these measures have proven insufficient, leading to the decision to reduce its global salaried workforce. The company has also announced layoffs at various other locations, including significant cuts in Waterloo, Davenport, and Dubuque, among others. John Deere has committed to providing severance packages to the affected employees, which include up to 12 months of severance pay based on years of service, pro-rated pay based on short- and long-term incentives, payment for unused vacation or paid time off, ongoing access to health and wellness benefits, and a year of professional job placement services. Despite these reductions, John Deere has emphasized its continued commitment to U.S.-based manufacturing and has invested significantly in its American facilities. The company aims to align its production and inventory levels with current market demands to ensure its long-term viability and competitiveness. |
— EU set to approve Bunge purchase of Viterra. Bunge Global SA’s planned $8.2 billion buyout of Viterra Inc. is set to be approved by the European Union after concessions offered by the firms appear to have appeased regulator concerns. Under the deal, Bunge will buy Glencore Plc-backed Viterra in stock and cash, becoming the world’s second-biggest agricultural trading company by revenue. Last month, the European Commission’s merger enforcers opened a preliminary investigation into the deal, and raised concerns over how the deal could impact competition in Poland and Hungary. Bunge offered commitments in response to the EU concerns, including divestments of all Viterra’s crush and refining capabilities for certain oilseeds in the two countries. EU officials are likely to conditionally approve the deal by a current deadline of Aug. 1, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
— Summer liquidity and VIX behavior. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) has been trading within a relatively narrow range since Q2 2023, but this pattern can be disrupted by seasonal factors, particularly during the summer months. Of note:
· Reduced trading volume: Summer months typically see lower trading volumes as many market participants take vacations. This reduction in liquidity can amplify price movements, potentially leading to more pronounced VIX spikes.
· Seasonal volatility patterns: Historically, volatility tends to be lower during summer months (June, July, and August) compared to the rest of the year. Data from 1990 to 2024 shows that realized volatility averaged 14.47% in summer versus 15.46% annually, while the VIX averaged 18.52 in summer compared to 19.51 annually.
· Post-summer volatility increase: Following the summer lull, volatility often increases. From September to December, realized volatility has historically averaged 15.94%, and the VIX has averaged 20.51, representing increases of 147 and 199 basis points respectively from summer levels.
Looking ahead, several factors could potentially impact volatility:
· Geopolitical events: Ongoing conflicts and international tensions could lead to sudden spikes in volatility.
· Economic factors: Issues such as growing domestic debt levels and monetary policy divergence among central banks could contribute to market uncertainty.
· U.S. presidential election: While its impact is debatable, the upcoming election could be a source of market volatility.
· Post-pandemic recovery: The ongoing economic recovery and potential shifts in consumer behavior could lead to market adjustments.
— Ag markets today: Corn futures favored the upside in two-sided trade overnight, while soybeans and wheat faced price pressure. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading steady to fractionally higher, soybeans were 2 to 4 cents lower, and wheat was mostly 2 to 5 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index was around 180 points lower, and front-month crude oil futures were more than $1.00 lower.
Wholesale beef price slide extends. Wholesale beef prices fell 53 cents for Choice to $312.68 and Select dropped $2.70 to $293.96. Movement stayed strong at 188 loads, increasing the five-day average to 161.4 loads.
Cash hog fundamentals continue to strengthen. The CME lean hog index is up another 69 cents to $90.77 as of July 23 – the eighth straight daily gain and the largest increase since April 11. The pork cutout firmed $1.26 to $104.76 on Wednesday, the highest since Aug. 24 of last year.
— Agriculture markets yesterday:
• Corn: July corn rose 3/4 cent to $4.18, a near three-week-high close.
• Soy complex: November soybeans fell 11 1/2 cents to $10.64 and near the session low. September soybean meal gained 70 cents to $326.10, nearer the session low and hit a more-than-two-week high early on. September soybean oil closed down 80 points at 45.28 cents and nearer the session low.
• Wheat: December SRW wheat rose 3 1/4 cents to $5.71, while December HRW wheat rose 1/2 cent to $5.83 3/4. Both forged near mid-range closes. December HRS futures fell 4 3/4 cents to $6.28 1/4.
• Cotton: December cotton closed down 83 points at 68.65 cents, near mid-range and hit a fresh contract low.
• Cattle: Nearby August live cattle futures edged higher Wednesday, rising 60 cents to $186.90, whereas the 2025 contracts declined. That may have reflected sizeable losses suffered by feeder futures, where nearby August fell $1.625 to $257.125.
• Hogs: August lean hog futures firmed 12.5 cents to $93.775 and settled nearer session highs. Deferred contracts posted stronger gains.
— U.S. economy demonstrated stronger-than-anticipated growth in the second quarter of 2024, expanding at an annualized rate of 2.8%, surpassing market expectations of 2% and showing a significant improvement from the 1.4% growth recorded in the first quarter. This robust performance underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy and strengthens the case for a potential soft landing.
Several key factors contributed to this impressive economic expansion:
· Consumer spending: Consumer spending, a crucial driver of U.S. economic growth, showed continued strength. The increase in consumer expenditures played a significant role in boosting GDP growth. This resilience in consumer spending is particularly noteworthy given the depletion of pandemic-era excess savings and concerns about elevated food and gas prices.
· Private inventory investment: The rise in private inventory investment was another major contributor to the GDP growth. This suggests that businesses are restocking their inventories, potentially in anticipation of future demand.
· Nonresidential fixed investment: The increase in nonresidential fixed investment indicates that businesses are continuing to invest in equipment, structures, and intellectual property products, reflecting confidence in future economic prospects.
· Labor market strength: The robust job market has been a key factor supporting economic growth. A strong labor market typically translates to higher consumer spending and overall economic activity.
· Business investment: Despite some expectations of a slowdown, business investment has remained relatively strong, contributing to overall economic growth.
The stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q2 2024 comes against a backdrop of various economic challenges:
· High interest rates: The Federal Reserve has maintained elevated interest rates to combat inflation, which typically acts as a drag on economic growth.
· Global economic weakness: The U.S. economy has outperformed many other major economies, despite weakness in global markets.
· Inflation concerns: While inflation has been trending downward, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Looking ahead, economists and analysts have differing views on the future trajectory of U.S. economic growth:
· Some forecast a potential slowdown in the latter half of 2024 and early 2025, citing factors such as the delayed effects of tight monetary policy and the depletion of household excess savings.
· Others maintain a more optimistic outlook, projecting continued growth supported by consumer spending and business investment.
Of note: The stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth may influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. While markets have been anticipating potential interest rate cuts later in the year, the robust economic performance could potentially delay such moves if inflationary pressures persist.
— South Korea’s economy shrank by 0.2% in the second quarter, after hefty growth in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected an expansion of 0.1%. The contraction will heighten expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates in the coming months.
Market perspectives:
— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was lower, with only the euro registering a gain against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was lower, trading around 4.20%, with a lower tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil markets were seeing significant pressure ahead of U.S. market action, with U.S. crude around $76.10 per barrel and Brent around $79.30 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were showing sharp losses ahead of U.S. economic data, with gold under $2,364 per troy ounce and silver under $27.68 per troy ounce.
— HRS tour Day 2 results. Scouts on the second day of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual HRS tour found strong yield potential in north-central and northwestern North Dakota. Samples collected averaged 53.7 bu. per acre, up from 45.7 bu. on similar routes last year and the five-year average (excluding 2020 because the tour was canceled due to Covid) of 40.0 bu. per acre. Scouts again noted the presence of scab, though they weren’t certain about the impact to yields. “I’ve been doing this for a long time, and I don’t ever remember the crops being this uniformly good all over the state,” Dave Green, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council, said.
— Cold Storage Report out this afternoon. USDA will detail frozen meat stocks at the end of June. The five-year average is a 5.4-million-lb. decline in beef stocks and a 18.0-million-lb. drop in pork stocks during the month.
— NWS outlook: Another day of major to locally extreme Heat Risk across the northern High Plains before cooler air arrives behind a cold front... ...Excessive Rainfall is forecast for the Texas coast through tonight with more scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern tier states to the East Coast... ...Monsoonal thunderstorms continue across the Great Basin and into the Four Corners region with threats of localized flash flooding while fire weather danger emerges over the interior Northwest.
Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:
• Corn near unchanged, beans and wheat lower this morning
• China concerned about EU’s protectionism on biodiesel
CONGRESS |
— House cancels votes for next week, breaks until Sept. 9. The House has canceled its session for next week and will adjourn for the remainder of the summer, according to a leadership schedule update. Lawmakers are set to return on Sept. 9. Appropriations Committee members had previously said they planned to vote on their Agriculture/FDA and Financial Services spending bills next week. But leaders canceled those votes, planning instead to leave early for August recess. The decision casts doubt on any further votes on the House’s partisan spending bills.
Of note: Lawmakers have said they’ll rely on a stopgap funding measure to avoid an Oct. 1 shutdown and aim for a spending deal in the year-end lame-duck session, if not later. The decision reflects Republicans’ struggle to manage a narrow majority.
The Senate will return next week to vote on the Kids Online Safety Act and the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act.
Bottom line: A congressional recess and the Democratic National Convention largely will shut down the capital in August.
— Ranking House Ag Member Scott blasts Speaker’s decision to cancel next week’s votes. In a statement (link), House Agriculture Committee Ranking Member David Scott (D-Ga.) expressed strong criticism of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) decision to cancel next week’s votes and start the summer recess early. Scott’s concerns are twofold:
· Early recess impact: The decision to begin the summer break earlier than scheduled is seen as problematic by Scott. This early adjournment reduces the time available for the House to complete its legislative work, particularly on crucial appropriations bills and work on a new farm bill.
· Farm bill: “By sending the House into recess early, Speaker Johnson once again proves that his dysfunctional Republican Leadership is the biggest obstacle to passing a truly bipartisan farm bill,” Scott said in a statement this morning. He said House Ag Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) “wanted the House to pass the farm bill in September once the appropriations process was completed. The inability to finish the appropriations process means September will be taken up trying to keep the government open and casts even more doubt on the Committee’s bill reaching the House Floor. The farm bill will be expiring again soon, and farmers are depending on us to provide an improved safety net before the year is out.”
· Appropriations process concerns: Scott highlights that the “inability to finish the appropriations process” will have significant consequences for September’s legislative agenda. He predicts that much of September will be consumed by efforts to keep the government open, rather than addressing other important legislative matters.
The criticism reflects broader challenges facing the House in passing its fiscal 2025 appropriations bills:
· GOP struggles: The Republican majority is facing difficulties in passing its appropriations bills due to their slim majority. With Democrats opposing the GOP-written spending measures, just a few Republican defections can prevent a bill from passing.
· Time constraints: The early recess puts additional pressure on an already tight schedule. With only five of the 12 annual spending bills passed, and others facing increasing opposition, the timeline for completing the appropriations process is becoming more compressed.
· September outlook: As Scott points out, the focus in September will likely shift to passing a stopgap funding measure to avoid a partial government shutdown when the new fiscal year begins on Oct. 1. This urgent need to keep the government open may overshadow other legislative priorities.
· Doubts about Agriculture bill: Scott specifically mentions doubts about the Agriculture Committee’s bill reaching the House floor. This suggests particular concern about funding for agricultural programs and related initiatives.
ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT |
— Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress aimed to strengthen U.S. backing for Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas and other adversaries, emphasizing the necessity of confronting Hezbollah in Lebanon and other Iranian-affiliated groups in the region. He highlighted the plight of hostages held by Hamas, including American citizens, and urged Congress to pressure world leaders to secure their release. He underscored the importance of the U.S./Israel alliance, stating that America and Israel “must stand together” in their fight against common enemies.
Netanyahu received a warm reception from Republican members of Congress, who organized the speech and have traditionally been strong supporters of Israel. Many Democrats, including high-profile figures like Vice President Kamala Harris and Senate President Pro Tempore Patty Murray, boycotted the event in protest of Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza conflict. Outside the Capitol, protests were held by demonstrators condemning the high civilian casualties in Gaza and calling for Netanyahu’s accountability. Inside, some Democrats criticized the speech as a political maneuver by Republicans to bolster Netanyahu’s standing. While Netanyahu was speaking, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) held up a sign that said “Guilty of Genocide” on one side and “War Criminal” on the other. Tlaib was approached by floor staff to stop displaying the sign.
He dismissed pro-Palestinian protesters in the United States as “useful idiots for Iran.” Netanyahu mocked the favorite anti-Israel slogan: “These protesters chant, ‘From the river to the sea,’ but many don’t have a clue what river and what sea they’re talking about.”
“This is not a clash between civilizations,” Netanyahu declared. “It is a clash between barbarism and civilization.”
Of note: Netanyahu lauded President Joe Biden for standing by Israel after Oct. 7 (though the two men have also feuded over Israel’s conduct in Gaza). Netanyahu specifically praised Trump’s treatment of Iran, his recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israel, and most importantly, the former president’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Netanyahu defended his government against accusations of human-right abuses in its Gaza campaign and praised the U.S./Israeli alliance. Netanyahu’s speech marked his fourth address to a joint session of Congress, surpassing the record previously held by Winston Churchill.
— The Israel Defense Forces announced they destroyed around 50 sites belonging to armed groups in Gaza since Wednesday. Israeli strikes have resulted in the deaths of at least 129 Palestinians over five days.
— House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) plans to visit Israel after the 2024 election, adding that he would make the trip sooner but “can’t take three or four days off the campaign trail right now.”
CHINA UPDATE |
— China lowers borrowing costs again, surprising markets. Actions include:
PBOC actions: For the second time this week, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reduced borrowing costs.
· Issued 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) in one-year loans at 2.30%, down 20 basis points, marking the second reduction within a week. This move was intended to lower borrowing costs for businesses and support economic growth.
· Injected 235.1 billion yuan into financial markets via seven-day reverse repos at 1.70%. This action aims to maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system, particularly towards the end of the month.
· Aimed to maintain ample month-end banking system liquidity.
Economic indicators:
· The rate cuts aim to support the slowing Chinese economy.
· Response to sharp declines in Chinese stock markets.
· Speculation that the PBOC may lower bank reserve requirements (RRR) later this year.
Market reaction: The actions suggest the economic situation in China may be more severe than anticipated. The stock markets in China have reacted negatively to these developments, with significant declines observed in indices such as the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite. This indicates that investors are concerned about the underlying economic conditions and the effectiveness of the PBOC’s measures. Market participants are now anticipating that the PBOC might further lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks later in the year to continue supporting the economy.
— China concerned about EU’s protectionism on biodiesel. China is highly concerned about the European Union’s protectionist actions in the biodiesel industry, the commerce ministry said. The comments come after the EU announced last Friday it will impose anti-dumping duties of 12.8% to 36.4%.
— ASIC’s accusation against COFCO subsidiaries. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) initiated civil penalty proceedings against two subsidiaries of the COFCO Group, COFCO International Australia Pty Ltd and COFCO Resources SA, for alleged manipulation of the Australian wheat futures market. This marks the first regulatory action by ASIC against COFCO. COFCO Group, also known as China Oil and Foodstuffs Corporation, is China’s largest food processor, manufacturer, and trader. It is a state-owned enterprise under the direct supervision of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. COFCO operates globally, with significant interests in agribusiness, food processing, finance, real estate, and more
Allegations and details. ASIC’s allegations center around the manipulation of Eastern Australia Wheat Futures contracts on 34 occasions between Jan. 17, 2022, and March 3, 2022. The accusations involve an employee of COFCO International Australia, Nicholas McGraw, who purportedly placed orders to sell these futures contracts below market value just before the market closed. This practice, known as “marking the close,” was allegedly intended to influence the daily settlement prices of these contracts, benefiting COFCO Resources, which held short positions in the same futures contracts.
Impact and legal actions. ASIC claims that this manipulation disrupted the natural forces of supply and demand, creating artificial prices for the futures contracts. This conduct is said to erode trust in the market, increase costs for market participants, and negatively impact farmers, food manufacturers, importers, exporters, and consumers. ASIC is seeking unspecified fines and declarations of wrongdoing against the involved COFCO subsidiaries. The case is set to be listed for a case management hearing at a date to be determined by the court.
— China tightens rules on confidential information amid espionage concerns. They include:
Stricter scrutiny on international travel. Individuals with access to state secrets face intensified checks when traveling abroad.
Increased responsibility for internet companies. New regulations demand heightened efforts to prevent leaks of sensitive information.
New regulations:
· State agencies: Must create lists of state secrets and ensure personnel handling classified information are trained and approved for international travel.
· Network operators: Internet companies and network vendors must detect and address leaks, and cooperate with investigations.
Bottom line: The rules are part of Xi Jinping’s broader counterespionage campaign in response to rising geopolitical tensions with the U.S. and Western nations. This includes public warnings and high-profile espionage arrests.
LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY |
— GAO report highlights college student food insecurity and SNAP underutilization. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) report highlights a significant issue facing college students in the United States — food insecurity and underutilization of available nutrition assistance programs. Here are the key findings and implications from the report:
Prevalence of food insecurity
In 2020, an estimated 23% of college students, or 3.8 million individuals, experienced food insecurity. This is a substantial portion of the student population facing challenges in accessing adequate nutrition. Of these food-insecure students, the majority (2.2 million) reported very low food security, indicating multiple instances of reduced food intake or skipped meals due to financial constraints.
SNAP eligibility and utilization
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is available to eligible low-income households to help with food expenses. However, college students face additional eligibility criteria to qualify for SNAP benefits, such as:
· Working at least 20 hours per week at a paid job
· Being a single parent
· Meeting other student-specific requirements
The GAO analysis found that fewer than two in five food-insecure students met the criteria to be potentially eligible for SNAP. More concerningly, among those who were potentially eligible, 59% did not report receiving SNAP benefits in 2020. This indicates a significant gap in benefit utilization among students who could potentially qualify for assistance.
Impact on federal investment in educationThe underutilization of SNAP benefits by eligible students is particularly concerning given the substantial federal investment in higher education. In fiscal year 2023, the federal government spent approximately $31.4 billion on Pell Grants to help over 6 million students with financial need attend college. Food insecurity can negatively affect students’ academic success, potentially undermining this significant investment in education.
Implications and challenges. The GAO report highlights several important implications:
· Awareness gap: There may be a lack of awareness among eligible students about SNAP benefits or how to access them.
· Complex eligibility criteria: The additional eligibility requirements for students may create barriers to accessing SNAP benefits.
· Potential academic impact: Food insecurity can negatively affect students’ academic performance, potentially leading to higher dropout rates and undermining the federal investment in higher education.
· Need for targeted outreach: Colleges and universities may need to increase efforts to inform students about SNAP eligibility and assist them in accessing benefits.
· Policy consideration: Policymakers may need to review the current eligibility criteria for students to ensure that those in need can access nutritional assistance.
OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE |
— FDA reopens comment period on petition to ban fluorinated polyethylene in food-contact products. The Food and Drug Admin. (FDA) reopened the comment period for a petition submitted by the Environmental Working Group, Center for Food Safety, and other organizations, which requests the prohibition of fluorinated polyethylene in food-contact products. This decision follows a publication error in the Federal Register on April 26, 2024, where the food additive petition was not made available online for public review and comment. Originally, the comment period was set to end on June 25, 2024, but it has now been extended to Sept. 23, 2024, to allow adequate time for public input.
Background. Fluorinated polyethylene is a type of plastic that has undergone a fluorination process to enhance its chemical barrier properties, making it more resistant to permeation by gases and liquids. This material has been authorized for general use in contact with food since 1983 under 21 CFR 177.1615. However, recent concerns have arisen regarding the formation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) during the fluorination process, which can migrate into food and pose health risks.
Health and environmental concerns. PFAS are a group of man-made chemicals that have been linked to various adverse health effects, including immune system toxicity, developmental issues, thyroid disruption, reproductive harm, and increased cancer risk. These chemicals are persistent in the environment and human body, earning the moniker “forever chemicals.” The petitioners argue that the use of fluorinated polyethylene in food-contact materials is neither necessary nor safe, given the well-documented risks associated with PFAS exposure.
FDA’s actions and public involvement. In response to these concerns, the FDA has issued a request for information (RFI) to gather scientific data on the current uses of fluorinated polyethylene in food contact applications, potential dietary exposure, and safety information on substances that may migrate from these containers. This RFI is part of the FDA’s ongoing efforts to ensure the safety of food contact substances (FCSs) and to monitor new scientific information as it becomes available.
To participate in the comment process, stakeholders can submit their comments electronically via Regulations.gov to docket number FDA-2022-N-1526 or send written submissions to the FDA’s Dockets Management Staff. The extended comment period until Sept. 23, 2024, provides an opportunity for more comprehensive public engagement and input on this important issue.
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