AP: Harris Garners Enough Support to Become Dems’ Presidential Nominee

News/Markets/Policy Updates: July 23, 2024

— AP survey finds Kamala Harris has support from enough Democratic delegates to become party’s presidential nominee. As of Monday evening, 2,214 delegates from at least three dozen states had endorsed Harris, according to a survey of delegates by the Associated Press. Harris kicked off her campaign earlier Monday with an appearance at its Wilmington, Del., headquarters, where she previewed her campaign message of being a former prosecutor running against a felon. “I will proudly put my record against his,” Harris said of Trump. She also welcomed a surprise phone call from President Biden, who — in his first public remarks since dropping out of the race — urged the campaign staff to rally around Harris. “Embrace her, she’s the best,” Biden said. Of note: The AP is not calling Harris the new presumptive nominee. That’s because the convention delegates are still free to vote for the candidate of their choice at the convention in August or if Democrats go through with a virtual roll call ahead of that gathering in Chicago. — Harris wins Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) backing amid a groundswell of support for the VP from Democratic politicians and top donors which saw $81 million pour in during the 24 hours since President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race. The $81 million came from 888,000 donors. According to the campaign, 60% of these people were making their first contribution of the 2024 cycle. About 43,000 of its new donors signed up for recurring payments, more than half of them weekly. Essentially all of Harris’ potential serious rivals for the nomination announced support for the current VP. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) stopped short of outright endorsing Kamala Harris — but in a joint statement, they said she is “off to a great start” in her candidacy and are preparing to meet “shortly” with her in person. (Getty Images) — Curse of the incumbent vice president. Joe Biden, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson, and Harry Truman all served as vice presidents before becoming president. However, Kamala Harris faces a challenging reality. While nearly half of the last 14 presidents served as vice president before ascending to the presidency, only one sitting vice president, George Herbert Walker Bush, has been elected president since Martin Van Buren in 1836, according to Bloomberg. In recent history, vice presidents have typically ascended to the presidency due to the president’s death (as with Truman and Johnson, who both later won full terms), resignation (as with Gerald Ford, who lost his subsequent election), or after a period out of office (as with Nixon and Biden). Conversely, most vice presidents who have run directly to succeed the president they served, such as Alben Barkley, Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, and Al Gore, have failed, with Bush in 1992 being the only exception. Bloomberg says one common denominator is that the president they served under was no asset to their campaign. — Another round of who Harris might pick for her VP. Among the possibilities: (1) Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes up for grabs. In a hypothetical Harris candidacy, she trails Trump by 4 points, according to a recent SoCal Research poll. According to prediction market Polymarket (link), he is currently the favorite to be Harris’s running mate. His pro-Israel views could be an issue among a Democratic base that has been critical of Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza. Also, his initial support in 2023 for a Republican-backed proposal to send $100 million to families for private-school tuition and school supplies angered teachers’ unions, a traditional base of support for Democrats. (2) Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. But Whitmer continues to signal she is not interested. (3) Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. Arizona is another critical swing state for the Democrats. Kelly has a military background and served as a NASA astronaut and a Navy combat pilot. Kelly could help address the surge in border crossings for which the Biden administration has come under heavy criticism. However, Kelly leaving the Senate would post a longer-term problem on his eventual replacement. (4) North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is the popular governor of a Republican-leaning swing state, and has successfully expanded Medicaid, pushed back against anti-LGBT+ laws and vetoed a bill that would have banned abortion after 12 weeks. He could help Harris secure the state, which Democrats hope will flip to them for the first time since 2008. According to Polymarket, he has the second highest odds of being selected by Harris. Also being talked about are nominees who can speak to moderates, independents and disaffected Republicans, like Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — a Hoosier who’s now a Michigan resident — or Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. Of note: Beshear was one of the first people Harris called seeking support for her nomination. On Monday he endorsed Harris and hinted he would be open to being her running mate. However, a Democratic ticket is unlikely to carry Kentucky, which is not considered a swing state and was won by Trump by 26 points in 2020. Of note: The presidential nominee won’t be made official until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next month. — Harris’s campaign team is taking shape. The vice president has asked Biden’s campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, to run her team. And Eric Holder, the attorney general under Barack Obama, will oversee vetting of potential running mates. — Analysts predict that U.S. foreign policy under a Kamala Harris presidency would largely continue President Joe Biden’s legacy. As a strong critic of Vladimir Putin, she would maintain support for Ukraine and counter Russian aggression. Harris shares Biden’s tough stance on China, according to a Beijing-based think tank researcher. However, Harris has shown more sympathy towards the Palestinian cause than Biden and was one of the first high-profile White House officials to call for an immediate ceasefire in the Israel/Hamas conflict. This stance could appeal to Arab American and youth voters disillusioned by Biden’s position on Israel. With limited foreign policy experience, Harris would likely rely on traditional and straightforward advisers, as noted by a former NATO official. — David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report on Kamala Harris: “Harris offers Dems fresh opportunities 1) base enthusiasm/$$ jolt 2) age contrast 3) ability to forcefully argue case vs. Trump 4) VP pick who expands appeal? But also liabilities 1) co-owns unpopular record 2) coastal/SF 3) border “czar” 4) to Biden’s left on several issues.” — Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Our Electoral College ratings are going to remain the same for the time being. Donald Trump is closer to 270 electoral votes in those ratings than Harris is, but it’s worth taking some time to let things settle. Harris addresses the concerns voters had with Biden’s age, but voters also seemed to view Biden as being more liberal than they did four years ago. Harris may have a similar challenge.” Link for more. — RealClearPolitics’ betting average has a 58.7% chance of Trump winning the election to Harris’s 29.9%.

MARKET FOCUS

• Launch of spot ether ETFs following approval by SEC
• Cybersecurity startup Wiz ends talks with Alphabet for $23 billion deal
• Oil fell Monday amid rising stockpiles and signs of weak demand
• Canadian PM Trudeau’s gov’t increases taxes on businesses to fund Canada’s budget
• Ag markets today
• USDA daily export sale: 200,000 MT corn to unknown destinations, 2024-2025 MY
• HRS wheat tour starts today
• ‘New El Nino’ discovered south of equator
• NWS outlook
• Pro Farmer First Thing Today items

CONGRESS

• Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle faces widespread calls to resign
• House clears WRDA measure
• FY 2025 Ag/FDA appropriations bill pulled from House schedule this week
• Witnesses for today’s House Ag Committee hearing on U.S. ag finance situation
• Supreme Court’s overturn of Chevron doctrine alters tax legislation process
• Johnson & Jeffries announce task force to investigate attempted assassination of Trump

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

• Netanyahu: conditions for cease-fire and hostage deal with Hamas improving

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

• EU extends package of sanctions against Russia for another six months
• Russian wheat exports start 2024-25 slower than last
• Ukrainian grain exports via Romania’s Constanta port plunge

POLICY

• How would a Harris White House win impact farm bill debate?
• Stabenow again plays regional-biased farm bill card in latest comments on new farm bill
• Ag groups: ‘Farm bill extension means delay’

CHINA

• Chinese researchers successfully test world’s first meltdown-proof nuclear power station
• China’s H1 soybean imports from Brazil record-large, U.S. shipments lag
• China’s loan collateral tweak will ease ‘asset famine’

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

• Collapse of carbon-credit market jeopardizing climate projects in developing countries
• Monarch Tractor closes $133 million Series C to develop AI tech and boost EV sales

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

• Canada top five destination for U.S. beef & pork exports amid regulatory issues
• U.S. District Judge William Young in Boston largely upholds Massachusetts’ Q3 pork law

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

• Update on Kamala Harris’ spurt to get Dem presidential nomination

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

• U.S. plans to enhance military readiness and surveillance in Arctic
• Ag groups urge EPA to reform Endangered Species Act (ESA) processes for pesticides
• New study reveals oxygen being released at bottom of Pacific Ocean
• France finalizing massive security operation for influx of Olympics visitors

— Equities today: Asian and European stock indexes were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings. In Asia, Japan flat. Hong Kong -0.9%. China -1.7%. India -0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +1.2%.

U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices registered gains to open the week. The Dow gained 127.91 points, 0.32%, at 40,415.44. The Nasdaq rose 280.63 points, 1.58%, 18,007.57. The S&P 500 was up 59.41 points, 1.08%, at 5,564.41.

— The Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds. Trading will begin as early as Tuesday. Ether, the cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain, is the world’s second-biggest cryptocurrency, after Bitcoin. The first bitcoin ETFs were traded in January.

— Given mounting antitrust and investor concerns, cybersecurity startup Wiz has ended talks with Alphabet for a $23 billion deal that would’ve been the tech giant’s largest acquisition so far. Wiz will instead pursue an IPO, as previously planned.

— Oil prices were lower Monday as traders focused on weaker demand and increased stockpiles. WTI traded down $0.35 to close at $79.78. Brent traded down $0.23, 0.3% to close at $82.40. Both contracts were at one-month lows.

— Ag markets today: Soybeans mildly extended Monday’s strong gains during the overnight session, while corn and wheat faded. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading around a penny lower, soybeans were 1 to 2 cents higher and wheat futures were 4 to 8 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index was modestly firmer, while front-month crude oil futures were mildly weaker.

Cash cattle fundamentals weakening. Last week’s average cash cattle price dropped 57 cents to $193.67, the lowest level since mid-June. Wholesale beef prices fell 39 cents for Choice to $313.44 and 47 cents for Select to $298.33 on Monday. The Choice price is the lowest since the end of May.

Cash hog fundamentals strengthening. The CME lean hog index is up another 9 cents to $89.80 as of July 19, the sixth straight daily gain — the longest string of gains since mid-April. The pork cutout rose $2.36 on Monday to $104.52, the highest level since August 2023.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: December corn rallied 10 1/4 cents to $4.15, marking the highest close since July 5.

• Soy complex: November soybean futures surged 32 3/4 cents to $10.68 3/4 and settled on session highs. August soymeal futures jumped $6.80 to $343.60, near session highs. August bean oil futures climbed 44 points to 47.00 cents, closing nearer session highs.

• Wheat: December SRW wheat rose 5 cents to $5.73 and near mid-range. December HRW wheat gained 1 1/4 cents to $5.88 and near mid-range. December spring wheat futures rose 10 3/4 cents to $6.40 1/4.

• Cotton: December cotton fell 3 cents to 70.67 cents, a near three-week low close.

• Cattle: August live cattle rose 82 1/2 cents to $183.925 and near mid-range. August feeder cattle closed up 80 cents at $256.40 and nearer the session low.

• Hogs: August lean hog futures rallied 80 cents to $92.375 and settled near session highs.

— Of note:

• 10 Years: The new statute of limitations for the enforcement of sanctions violations. The U.S. Treasury Department on Monday released a guidance on the change, which was enacted as part of a foreign aid bill earlier this year.

• The European Union has extended its package of sanctions against Russia for another six months. The sanctions, first imposed in 2014 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and expanded thereafter, will be in effect through the end of January 2025. The bloc in late June announced its 14th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting its energy, finance and trade sectors.

• Take the high road. The drug middlemen that promise to control costs have instead steered patients toward higher-priced medicines and affiliated pharmacies — steps that increase spending and reduce patient choice, a House investigation found.

— Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has increased taxes on businesses to help fund Canada’s budget, which may further challenge an economy already struggling to attract investment. This move contrasts sharply with the current economic climate in the U.S., which is experiencing a supply renaissance and a factory-building boom. Economists caution that Canada’s higher taxes could discourage firms from expanding production, potentially causing long-term harm to an economy that depends heavily on high immigration and consumption for growth.

Of note: The Bank of Canada is widely expected to cut its key overnight rate on Wednesday for a second time in as many months, after recent data showed a further easing of consumer price inflation, restrained spending and a lackluster economic outlook.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was higher as the euro, yen and British pound were all lower against the U.S. currency. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was lower, trading around 4.23%, with a mostly lower tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were weaker, with U.S. crude around $78.05 per barrel and Brent around $82.05 per barrel. Gold and silver were mixed ahead of US market action, with gold higher around $2,408 per troy ounce and silver weaker around $29.23 per troy ounce.

— USDA daily export sale: 200,000 MT corn to unknown destinations, 2024-2025 MY.

— HRS wheat tour starts today. The Wheat Quality Council’s annual HRS tour through North Dakota, along with far western Minnesota and far northern South Dakota kicks off this morning. We’ll highlight scout reports through the week. Final yield results will be released Thursday afternoon, along with the North Dakota production guesstimate from Tour scouts.

— ‘New El Nino’ discovered south of equator. A new climate pattern, the “Southern Hemisphere Circumpolar Wavenumber-4 Pattern,” has been discovered near New Zealand and Australia, affecting the entire Southern Hemisphere. Unlike El Niño, which starts in the tropics, this pattern originates in the mid-latitudes. The study, published in JGR Oceans (link), highlights the significant interaction between the ocean and atmosphere. Researchers found that temperature changes in this small ocean area create a ripple effect, forming four alternating warm and cool areas circling the Southern Hemisphere. Bottom line: This new pattern happens independently of other known weather systems in tropics such as the warming El Niño pattern of currents and trade winds, or its opposite, cooling phase, La Niña. This discovery could improve weather forecasting and climate prediction, especially in the Southern Hemisphere.

— NWS outlook: Major to locally extreme Heat Risk will expand across the northern High Plains as heat gradually becomes less intense over the Central Valley of
California and the Great Basin... ...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect a large section of the eastern half of the U.S. with heavy rain emerging near the Texas coast on Wednesday... ...Monsoonal thunderstorms continue across the Great Basin and into the Four Corners region with threat of localized flash flooding.

(NWS)

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Beans firmer, corn and wheat weaker overnight
• Cordonnier raises U.S. corn yield, production forecasts
• Corn CCI rating unchanged, soybean crop modestly improves
• Crop Progress Report highlights

— Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle testified before the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability on Monday regarding the July 13 assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump at a Pittsburgh rally. The hearing was marked by tension and frustration as lawmakers criticized Cheatle for not providing straightforward answers, often citing ongoing investigations. Key points include:

• Both Republicans and Democrats expressed frustration over the lack of specific details about the investigation. Lawmakers demanded more transparency from Cheatle, who insisted on providing correct and accurate information.

• Accountability needed. Several Republicans, including Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.), and a few Democrats called for Cheatle’s resignation, citing a need for accountability. That included the committee’s top Democrat Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who sent a letter demanding Cheatle’s resignation for failing to “provide answers to basic questions” about the agency’s failure to protect Donald Trump’s Butler, Pa., rally.

• Cheatle shared that Thomas Crooks, the alleged shooter, was identified as suspicious before the attack but evaded the Secret Service team sent to find him. She confirmed Crooks acted alone and denied any involvement of high-ranking government officials.

• Cheatle announced an internal “mission assurance” review to be completed in 60 days but did not specify timelines for other investigations, including the FBI’s criminal probe. This drew criticism from lawmakers, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) calling the timeline unacceptable.

• Raskin and other Democrats used the hearing to highlight the broader issue of gun violence in America, calling for congressional action to address mass shootings. Raskin is the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee.

• Of note: At the hearing, progressive Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) asked Cheatle if she knew what Secret Service director Stuart Knight did after the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan. “He remained on duty,” Cheatle said. Khanna replied, “He resigned.”

• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) filed a privileged resolution Monday night to impeach Cheatle over the security failures in the run-up to the Trump campaign rally. Republican leaders have two legislative days to schedule a floor vote on the matter.

— House clears WRDA measure. The House on Monday passed, 359-13, the Water Resources Development Act (HR 8812), aiming to fund and study water resources projects nationwide. The legislation, which garners bipartisan support every two years, authorizes nearly $10 billion for 12 projects. These projects focus on navigation, hurricane and storm damage risk reduction, flood control, and ecosystem restoration.

Additionally, the bill mandates the Army Corps of Engineers to conduct 161 feasibility studies, emphasizing drought resiliency and water conservation. It also includes a requirement for an assessment of the future of dams in Oregon, following a missed deadline from the 2022 WRDA.

The bill will need to be reconciled with a similar Senate bill (S4367), which was advanced by the Environment and Public Works Committee and filed as an amendment to the fiscal year (FY) 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (S4368). The Senate might also consider the WRDA as a standalone measure this summer.

— House leaders postponed consideration of the Agriculture/FDA (HR 9027) and Financial Services (HR8773) bills, which had initially been slated for votes this week. Republicans were concerned they lacked support to pass the bills, but are trying to work through issues. The proposed Agriculture/FDA bill includes a 4% cut in discretionary funding compared to the previous fiscal year, which has raised concerns about its impact on rural communities and critical food assistance programs. Specific cuts include reductions in direct loans for rural home purchases, water and waste grants, and energy savings programs for rural small businesses. These cuts are perceived as increasing costs for rural America and jeopardizing essential services. The bill threatens access to food for low-income and vulnerable Americans by cutting funding for programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), and other food assistance initiatives. The inclusion of the “SNAP Choice” pilot program, which limits food choices for SNAP recipients, has been particularly controversial.

Of note: The Ag/FDA measure should come up again next week, key lawmakers said yesterday. But Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) said he’s skeptical the bills will come up. “It appears that a decision has already been made that they’re not going to pass,” McGovern said at a Rules Committee meeting yesterday. He added, “We may never see these bills on the House floor.” The White House listed more than a dozen objections to the USDA/FDA funding bill.

— Witnesses scheduled for today’s House Ag Committee hearing on the U.S. ag finance situation:

• Dana Allen-Tully, Ph.D. – President, Minnesota Corn Growers, Eyota, Minnesota
• David Dunlow – Chairman, American Cotton Producers, Henrico, North Carolina
• Tony Hotchkiss – Chairman, Agriculture and Rural Bankers Committee of the American Bankers Association, Evansville, Indiana
• Joey Caldwell – Senior Vice President for Retail, GreenPoint Ag Holdings, LLC, on behalf of the Agricultural Retailers Association, Decatur, Alabama
• Ronald Rainey, Ph.D. – Assistant Vice President, University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, Fayetteville, Arkansas

— Supreme Court’s overturn of Chevron doctrine alters tax legislation process. The recent Supreme Court decision to overturn the Chevron doctrine is poised to significantly impact how tax legislation is crafted and interpreted. The Chevron doctrine previously allowed federal courts to defer to agency interpretations of ambiguous laws. With its repeal, Congress, particularly the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance committees, may now need to provide more precise delegations of authority to the IRS and Treasury Department.

This shift emphasizes the importance of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), which plays a crucial role in analyzing tax proposals and helping draft tax legislation. The JCT, staffed with over 40 economists and tax attorneys, is expected to assist in creating detailed legislative histories and clarifying congressional intent. This support is critical as courts will now scrutinize legislative texts more closely without the Chevron deference.

Key lawmakers and committees are still assessing the full implications of this change. However, experts believe that tax writers’ existing practices of explicitly granting regulatory authority and considering revenue effects position them well to adapt. The JCT’s deep expertise and institutional knowledge make it uniquely suited to support Congress in this new legal landscape, potentially enhancing its role in the legislative process.

— Johnson & Jeffries announce task force to investigate attempted assassination of Trump. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) announced the formation of a bipartisan task force to investigate the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. The House will vote on a resolution to establish the 13-member task force, including 6 Democrats, later this week. The task force will have subpoena authority to quickly uncover facts, ensure accountability, and prevent future security failures.

— Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that conditions for a cease-fire and hostage deal with Hamas are improving, suggesting the sides are nearing a temporary halt in their Gaza conflict. Speaking in Washington, Netanyahu said progress on hostage return is due to strong pressure on Hamas. He affirmed Israel’s continued military actions against the Iran-backed Islamist group, which the U.S. considers a terrorist organization, are weakening Hamas and moving it closer to a deal. Recently, Israel ordered Palestinian civilians to evacuate parts of Khan Younis amid renewed attacks on Hamas fighters.

Of note: President Biden will meet later this week with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss efforts to reach a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal. Meanwhile, VP Kamala Harris. despite her role as president of the Senate, will skip Netanyahu’s appearance, distancing herself from Israel’s war, which is deeply unpopular with many Democratic voters. Harris, however, will meet with Netanyahu.

— Russian wheat exports start 2024-25 slower than last year. Black Sea consulting firm SovEcon estimates Russia will export 3.5 MMT of grain in July, including 2.9 MMT of wheat. That would be lower totals than any month during the 2023-24 marketing year and down significantly from 5.6 MMT of grain and a record 4.4 MMT of wheat shipped during July 2023.

— Ukrainian grain exports via Romania’s Constanta port plunge. Ukraine exported 4.24 MMT of grain through the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta during the first half of this year, down 43.5% from the same period last year. Constanta port had been Ukraine’s main alternative route for grain. But a shipping corridor Ukraine created in August 2023 from Odesa means Kyiv relies less on Constanta.

— How would a Harris White House win impact farm bill debate? The current 2018 Farm Bill extension expires at the end of September (most say an effective December deadline) unless Congress passes an extension. Analysts say the likelihood of passing a farm bill during the lame-duck session depends on the outcomes of the November elections for the White House, Senate, and House. If the current divided government remains, lawmakers may push for a compromise bill between November and January. However, if Republicans gain more power, they might delay the deadline to next year for better leverage. The House Ag Committee advanced its bill (HR 8467) in May, but GOP leadership hasn’t scheduled a floor vote, and the Dem-led Senate Ag panel has only released a framework.

— Stabenow again plays the regional-biased farm bill card in latest comments on new farm bill. In updated comments on a new farm bill (link), Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) says the House proposal claims to enhance the farm bill but disproportionately benefits a few sectors. She says it heavily invests in commodity programs, which make up 80% of the House bill, with 73% of that directed at reference price increases for 22 crops. This leaves new and beginning farmers out and risks inflating land costs, she notes. Half of the investment benefits just 2% of U.S. farms, increasing taxpayer-funded subsidies by $22 billion over the next decade. She again charges the proposal favors southern crops like cotton, rice, and peanuts, exacerbating regional disparities. For balanced support, she concludes, a farm bill must equitably distribute resources across all regions and commodities.

— Ag groups: ‘Farm bill extension means delay’. Worried that “it may not be logistically or politically feasible to advance a farm bill early in the next Congress,” more than 500 state and national farm, sportsman, conservation, and ag retail groups asked congressional leaders to pass a farm bill this year rather than extend current law. Link for details.

— Chinese researchers have successfully tested the world’s first meltdown-proof nuclear power station. Unlike most nuclear plants that use fuel rods requiring constant cooling to prevent meltdown, the plant in Shandong, China, uses “pebbles” that dissipate heat more quickly. This design ensures that even if power is lost, the pebbles will not overheat. During a recent test, engineers cut power to the operating plant, which naturally cooled and stabilized within 35 hours. While existing reactors cannot be retrofitted with this design, it offers a promising blueprint for future nuclear power stations, according to New Scientist (link).

— China’s H1 soybean imports from Brazil record-large, U.S. shipments lag. China imported 9.7 MMT of soybeans from Brazil during June, up 2.2% from last year and the highest monthly volume since May 2023’s record of 10.93 MMT. China imported 1.31 MMT of soybeans from the U.S. last month, up 25.1% from year-ago. Through the first half of the year, China brought in 34.43 MMT of Brazilian soybeans, up 16.1% from last year and a record for the period. Imports from the U.S. totaled 12.2 MMT, down 27% from the same period last year.

— China’s loan collateral tweak will ease ‘asset famine’. China’s decision to lower the collateral requirement for medium-term loans will alleviate “asset famine” pressure on the bond market, state media reported on Tuesday. “A large amount of bonds will be released if financial institutions choose to sell long-term bonds after the change to collateral requirement, effectively alleviating the pressure of ‘asset famine’ in the bond market,” the official Securities Times reported, citing a source close to the central bank. Market participants believe the move will also help maintain an upward-sloping yield curve, which central bank officials appear determined to maintain.

— Collapse of the carbon-credit market is jeopardizing climate projects in developing countries, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Jorge Cantuarias, who has paid thousands annually to families in the Peruvian Amazon to preserve the rainforest, now faces financial difficulties as he sits on unsold credits. Once seen as a vital tool against climate change, the market has plummeted due to reports of overstated impacts and human rights violations, leading to accusations of greenwashing. The market’s decline from $2.1 billion in 2021 to $723 million in 2023 leaves projects like Cantuarias’s and others in Brazil struggling to survive, potentially impacting thousands who depend on them. Efforts to restore market credibility with stricter standards are ongoing but have yet to restore buyer confidence.

— Electric tractor startup Monarch Tractor has closed a Series C round of $133 million to develop its AI tech and grow sales. Axios Pro says electric, autonomous tractors, combined with AI, can help farmers cut diesel use and boost efficiencies, saving money.

— Canada is a top five destination for both U.S. beef and pork exports, but shipments are sometimes slowed by regulatory issues. The recent transition to the Public Health Information System (PHIS) Export Module was intended to reduce paperwork and simplify the export process. But Courtney Heller, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) director of export services, says some documentation obstacles persist for U.S. exporters. Heller adds that because the food safety and inspection systems in the U.S. and Canada are so similar, red meat trade between the two countries could be further streamlined. USMEF is working with industry partners such as the Meat Institute to develop recommendations that could simplify regulatory processes and help bolster U.S. exports to Canada.

Last year U.S. pork exports to Canada totaled nearly 220,000 metric tons (MT), making Canada the fourth largest market for U.S. pork, with export value topping $875 million. Through May of this year, pork exports are slightly below last year’s pace in volume (85,500 MT) and steady in value ($338 million). U.S. beef exports to Canada totaled 103,500 metric tons in 2023, ranking fifth among U.S. export markets, with export value also totaling about $875 million. Through May of this year, beef exports are up 8% in value ($353 million) despite a 5% decline in volume (just under 40,000 metric tons).

— U.S. District Judge William Young in Boston has largely upheld Massachusetts’ Q3 pork law, rejecting an industry-backed attempt to block its enforcement. This law, known as the Prevention of Farm Animal Cruelty Act, bans the sale of pork from pigs kept in tightly confined spaces. Link to our special report on the issue released earlier this morning.

— U.S. plans to enhance its military readiness and surveillance in the Arctic in response to increasing Chinese and Russian interest and the new risks posed by accelerating climate change, according to the Pentagon. These measures aim to prevent the Arctic from becoming a strategic blind spot as melting ice makes the region more accessible for economic and military activities. Key priorities include improving surveillance, researching space-based missile warning systems, and strengthening coordination with NATO and Canada. The Pentagon expressed concern about the growing alignment between China and Russia, highlighting them as top national security competitors for Washington.

— More than 300 agricultural groups urge EPA to reform its Endangered Species Act (ESA) processes for pesticides. In a letter (link) signed by 318 organizations, these groups argue that without reforms, farmers will face significant and costly restrictions that may be unnecessary to protect endangered species.

Josh Gackle, president of the American Soybean Association, emphasized that while the groups support the EPA’s efforts to comply with legal requirements, the agency needs to go beyond minimal compliance. He criticized the EPA for often making conservative assumptions instead of using the best available scientific and commercial data, leading to unnecessary restrictions for farmers and legal vulnerabilities for pesticide registrations.

Federal courts have repeatedly found the EPA had not fulfilled its ESA obligations, leading to the striking down of pesticide registrations. To address this, the EPA has attempted to bring its pesticide program into compliance, but the regulatory pendulum has swung too far, resulting in overregulation based on worst-case scenarios. Neil Rockstad, president of the American Sugarbeet Growers Association, stressed the need for the EPA to use realistic data and engage with farmers to understand actual agricultural practices.

The agricultural groups advocate for the use of more accurate data and refined models to provide precise assessments and impose restrictions only when truly necessary. They call on the EPA to engage with stakeholders by September 2024 to ensure timely refinements to the ESA processes. The organizations plan to follow up with the EPA to facilitate stakeholder engagement and assist the agency in meeting its legal requirements while avoiding unnecessary restrictions on farmers.

— EPA seeks comments on new use request for Dicamba/S-metolachlor herbicide. EPA is seeking public comment on a new-use request submitted by Syngenta for a herbicide to be used on cotton and soybeans containing Dicamba and S-metolachlor. The comments are being sought as the active ingredients in the herbicide are currently registered under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA). “Because EPA expects a large stakeholder interest in this application, EPA also included in the docket Syngenta Crop Protection’s current proposed labeling associated with the application,” the agency said in the Federal Register notice (link) seeking comments due Aug. 22.

— New study reveals that oxygen is being released at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, challenging the belief that only living things produce oxygen through photosynthesis. Researchers found increasing oxygen levels in seafloor samples from 2.5 miles deep between Hawaii and Mexico, despite no sunlight. The leading hypothesis suggests that rocks containing metals like nickel and cobalt are splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen through seawater electrolysis. Elevated voltage in the samples supports this theory, although no hydrogen byproduct has been identified. This discovery questions theories about the origin of life and raises concerns about the impact of deep-sea mining on ecosystems relying on these rocks for oxygen.

— As the Paris 2024 Olympic Games approach, France is finalizing a massive security operation for the influx of visitors. Paris will host a compact Games, with most facilities within a 3.1-mile radius of the Olympic Village, allowing fans to walk, cycle, or use the metro. The Opening Ceremony will be uniquely held along the Seine River, the first time outside a stadium. Some athletes will be competing from war-torn countries, adding to the event’s significance.

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