— Equities: U.S. equity futures declined after Thursday’s muted session on Wall Street, while European and Asian stocks edged higher in subdued holiday trading as the year draws to a close. In Asia, Japan +1.8%. Hong Kong flat. China +0.1%. India +0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.6%. Frankfurt +0.4%. Equities on Thursday: U.S. stock indices finished narrowly mixed in light, post-holiday trade. The Dow gained 28.77 points, 0.07%, at 43,325.80. The Nasdaq was down 10.77 points, 0.05%, at 20,020.36. The S&P 500 eased 2.45 points, 0.04%, at 6,037.59. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a seven-month high, and a gauge of the dollar ticked up, on track for its best year since 2015. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $69.96 a barrel. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,625.66 an ounce — Brent crude gains amid China’s stimulus and inventory declines. Brent crude oil futures climbed above $73 per barrel on Friday, eyeing a modest weekly gain in light year-end trading. Prices rose following China’s announcement of new economic measures, including flexibility in using government bond proceeds to stimulate growth, potentially boosting oil demand. U.S. API data also revealed a fifth consecutive drop in crude inventories, pending confirmation from official sources. The World Bank raised its growth forecast for China in 2024-2025 but noted lingering challenges in the property sector. Meanwhile, European energy firms are prioritizing oil and gas over renewables for short-term gains. Despite the uptick, Brent crude remains on track for an annual decline of nearly 3%. — Ag markets today: Corn, soybeans and wheat mildly pulled back from Thursday’s gains during a lightly traded overnight session. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading around a penny lower, soybeans were 1 to 2 cents lower and wheat futures were 1 to 4 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index was nearly 200 points lower and front-month crude oil futures were about 50 cents higher. Cash cattle sentiment strengthens. Thursday’s surge in cattle futures, along with a sharp rise in wholesale beef values has cash sources now expecting steady-at-worst prices for this week’s cash cattle trade. But it remains uncertain how actively packers will attempt to bid for cattle with another holiday-shortened slaughter schedule next week and still deeply negative margins. Cash hog index continues to rise. The CME lean hog index is up another 35 cents to $85.10 as of Dec. 23, marking a sixth straight daily gain and eight of the last 10 days. During that span, the index has risen $1.77 from the Dec. 9 low. Ag trade: Bangladesh tendered to buy 50,000 MT of optional origin non-basmati parboiled rice. — Farmers do not need to sign up with the IRS by Jan. 1, 2025, for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. The registration requirement applies specifically to biofuel producers, such as ethanol and biodiesel plants. Registration requirements. The IRS has outlined the following key points regarding registration for the 45Z credit:
· Biofuel producers must have a signed registration letter from the IRS dated on or before Jan. 1, 2025, to be eligible to claim the 45Z credit for production starting Jan. 1, 2025.
· The registration process is conducted using Form 637, “Application for Registration (for Certain Excise Tax Activities),” under specific Activity Letters for non-SAF transportation fuel producers and SAF producers.
· The IRS encouraged producers to apply for registration by July 15, 2024, to ensure processing by Jan. 1, 2025. Farmer considerations. While farmers are not required to register directly with the IRS for the 45Z credit, they may still be indirectly affected:
· Biofuel plants seeking to qualify for 45Z may require more information about farming practices for crops used as feedstocks.
· Farmers might be offered premiums for implementing practices that reduce carbon intensity, such as no-till or nutrient management plans.
· It’s advisable for farmers to maintain detailed records of their field-level production practices, as this information may be valuable if market opportunities related to 45Z become available. In summary, the IRS registration requirement for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit applies to biofuel producers, not individual farmers. However, farmers should stay informed about potential opportunities and maintain good records of their agricultural practices to potentially benefit from related market incentives in the future. — Biden administration push for DEI staffing head of Trump 2.0 As the Trump administration’s inauguration looms, the Biden administration has accelerated efforts to expand the federal workforce in diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) roles. Within 10 days of President-elect Donald Trump’s electoral victory, 33 DEI-related job postings emerged, according to The Daily Wire. Additionally, up to 1,200 DEI employees are reportedly being recruited to secure their positions in the permanent federal workforce before the new administration takes office. — U.S. gasoline prices: An overview. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. as of Dec. 24, was $3.041 per gallon4. This represents a slight decrease from the previous year’s average of $3.127. Top 5 states with highest gas prices:
1. Hawaii: $4.542 per gallon
2. California: $4.339 per gallon
3. Washington: $3.908 per gallon
4. Nevada: $3.611 per gallon
5. Oregon: $3.454 per gallon Bottom 5 states with lowest gas prices:
1. Oklahoma: $2.557 per gallon
2. Mississippi: $2.593 per gallon
3. Texas: $2.642 per gallon
4. Arkansas: $2.646 per gallon
5. Kansas: $2.674 per gallon California’s gas price breakdown. California consistently ranks among the states with the highest gas prices. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the components contributing to California’s high gas prices:
· Base price and profit margin: The remainder after subtracting taxes and fees.
· State excise tax: 57.9 cents per gallon (as of July 2024)
· Federal excise tax: 18.4 cents per gallon
· Cap-and-Trade Program: 23 cents per gallon
· Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS): 18 cents per gallon
· Underground storage tank fee: 2 cents per gallon
· Sales tax: Approximately 3.7% of the retail price
· Production costs: An additional 15 cents per gallon due to California’s unique formulation regulations The total taxes and fees amount to approximately $1.40 per gallon, making them the largest contributors to California’s high gas prices. These charges effectively double the cost of refining and delivering gasoline in the state. Of note: California’s stringent fuel standards, which mandate unique summer and winter gasoline blends, also contribute to higher prices. Additionally, the state’s environmental programs and shorter winter season for fuel blends further increase compliance and production costs. — Ukraine sends 500 tons of flour to Syria as humanitarian aid. Ukraine has dispatched 500 tons of wheat flour to Syria as part of its “Grain from Ukraine” humanitarian program, following the ouster of Syria’s Russian-backed government. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the aid on X, emphasizing Ukraine’s commitment to supporting Syrians in need. The move aligns with Kyiv’s efforts to strengthen ties with Damascus amid the partial withdrawal of Russian troops. Ukraine, a significant agricultural producer, has previously extended similar aid to African nations, showcasing its role in global food security. — China launches probe into beef imports amid farmer struggles. China initiated an investigation into its beef imports following complaints from domestic industry associations about the adverse effects of a surge in shipments from abroad. The probe, announced by the Ministry of Commerce, will determine if the influx of imports has harmed local producers. The investigation, expected to conclude within eight months but extendable under special circumstances, comes as China’s beef imports have risen over 70% since 2019. This surge has caused oversupply and plummeting domestic prices, leaving local farmers facing significant losses. Of note: Beef prices in China are at their lowest level in five years, reports said, with cattle prices their lowest in 10 years. January-November imports of the products being investigated were 2.6 million metric tons (MMT) while those same imports totaled 1.66 MMT in all of 2019. The move could have repercussions for major exporters like Brazil, Argentina, and Australia. Brazil, which supplies nearly half of China’s beef imports, might be especially impacted. Although the country has strengthened ties with Beijing, it has recently countered cheap Chinese exports with tariffs on other goods. China has previously imposed anti-dumping duties on imports, such as Australian barley in 2020, signaling potential similar actions for beef imports depending on the probe’s findings. — Sales of U.S. soybeans to China easing with more 2025 beef, pork sales. USDA weekly Export Sales data for the week ended Dec. 19 showed tempered activity to China of net sales of 410,618 metric tons of soybeans and net reductions of 4,313 running bales of upland cotton. For 2024, net sales reductions of 1,081 metric tons of beef and net sales of 1,386 metric tons of pork were reported, with net sales for 2025 of 3,679 metric tons of beef and 5,960 metric tons of pork. — China’s industrial profits decline, but recovery signs emerge. China’s industrial profits dropped 7.3% year-on-year in November, marking the fourth consecutive month of declines. However, the contraction was less severe than in October (-10%) and September (-27.1%). Analysts attribute the persistent profit struggles to China’s disinflationary environment, though some suggest the worst may be over due to ongoing stimulus measures. — China sanctions 7 U.S. companies over military assistance to Taiwan. The Chinese government placed sanctions on seven companies on Friday in response to recent U.S. announcements of military sales and aid to Taiwan. The seven companies being sanctioned include Insitu Inc., Hudson Technologies Co., Saronic Technologies, Inc., Raytheon Canada, Raytheon Australia, Aerkomm Inc. and Oceaneering International Inc., the foreign ministry said. It said that “relevant senior executives” of the companies are also sanctioned. Any assets they have in China will be frozen, and organizations and individuals in China are prohibited from engaging in any activity with them. Key trends from January to November 2024 include:
· Overall decline: Industrial profits fell 4.7% year-on-year.
· Sector-specific impacts: Mining profits slumped 13.2%, manufacturing declined 4.6%, while utilities rose 10.9%.
· Foreign-invested firms: Profits dipped 0.8%. Despite recent economic challenges — weak consumer demand, a prolonged property market downturn, and disappointing trade and retail sales — some recovery signs are evident. Manufacturing activity expanded for two consecutive months, hitting a five-month high in November. China’s leadership has pledged intensified monetary easing, including interest rate cuts, to support economic growth. The World Bank on Thursday adjusted its 2024 GDP forecast upward to 4.9%, reflecting confidence in these policy measures, though risks in the property sector and weak confidence remain hurdles. — Brazil’s soybean and corn exports show divergent trends: Conab. Brazil’s soybean and corn exports revealed contrasting performances in November 2024, according to the latest Logistics Bulletin from the National Supply Company (Conab). Soybean exports faced a decline due to crop failure and lower international prices, while corn exports surged, bolstered by robust global demand. From January to November 2024, soybean exports totaled 96.8 million tons, a drop from 101.8 million tons in the same period of 2023. This marked a shift in Brazil’s export revenue leadership, as soybeans lost ground to oil. The last time soybeans were not Brazil’s top export earner was in 2021, when iron ore took the lead. Corn exports, on the other hand, displayed significant growth. Ports in the Northern Arc handled 47.2% of the year’s corn exports through November, up from 41.6% in 2023. The Port of Santos followed closely, accounting for 41.6% of the volume. Key exporting states included Mato Grosso, Goiás, Paraná, and Maranhão. Additionally, the bulletin highlighted a decline in fertilizer imports in November, aligning with the end of planting season input applications. However, annual import volumes remained high, reflecting the critical role of fertilizers in Brazilian agriculture. Conab forecasts continued growth in Brazil’s agricultural exports, driven by production recovery and improved logistics. — South Korea faces deepening political crisis. South Korea’s political turmoil intensified as the National Assembly impeached acting President Han Duck-soo. This follows the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, which awaits review by the Constitutional Court. The opposition-controlled Assembly voted 192-0, with the People Power Party boycotting. Han’s impeachment stems from his refusal to fill vacancies in the Constitutional Court, leaving it short of its nine members. For the impeachment to stand, six justices must approve the decision. — CDC: Mutations in severe bird flu case unrelated to animals. The U.s. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported identifying “low frequency mutations” in the H5N1 avian influenza virus from a severely ill patient in Louisiana. These mutations were absent in poultry samples from the patient’s property, suggesting they emerged after human infection. The CDC confirmed no evidence of human-to-human transmission and emphasized that the risk to humans remains low. The case highlights the importance of continued surveillance in animals and humans, along with stringent outbreak containment efforts in poultry and dairy cattle. — Cotton AWP eases. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton moved down to 54.55 cents per pound, effective today (Dec. 27), down from 55.09 cents per pound the prior week. Meanwhile, USDA announced that Special Import Quota #11 will be established Jan. 2 for the import of 31,716 bales of upland cotton, applying to supplies purchased no later than April 1 and entered into the U.S. not later than June 30. — Here’s a table showing the 2025 tax brackets and federal income tax rates for single filers, married couples filing joint returns, and heads of household: — Key dates in January 2: First trading day of 2025
3: New Congress sworn in3: House speaker election
6: House certification of 2024 presidential election
8: First Social Security benefit checks of the year; cost of living adjustment is 2.5%
15: Last day to enroll in a 2025 health plan via HealthCare.gov
20: Inauguration Day
20: College football national championship
28: Florida’s 1st and 6th special primaries
31: Employers and financial institutions should send out W-2 and 1099 tax forms. — NWS outlook: Stormy weather pattern to continue across the Northwestern U.S. into this weekend with heavy lower elevation rain and higher elevation heavy snow... ...Increasingly wet pattern developing from the Lower Mississippi Valley, spreading northeast into the Tennessee Valley, Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... ...Arctic air remains absent from the Lower 48 with much above average temperatures across nearly all of the country. | 
