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Corn and beans weaker, wheat firmer this morning... Corn futures faced light followthorugh selling overnight, while wheat firmed. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are fractionally to a penny lower and wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is down more than 700 points and front-month crude oil futures are modestly firmer.
China targets U.S. ag in trade war escalation... China is preparing countermeasures against new U.S. import tariffs, with American agricultural exports in its sights, according to China’s state-backed Global Times. This move comes after President Donald Trump threatened an additional 10% duty on Chinese products, accusing Beijing of insufficient efforts to curb fentanyl shipments to the United States. China’s planned response may include tariffs and non-tariff measures, likely impacting key U.S. agricultural products like soybeans, grains and meats. The U.S. ag sector could face significant challenges despite efforts to diversify markets. Chinese markets reacted swiftly, with soybean, soymeal and rapeseed futures at the Dalian Commodity Exchange ending higher on Monday.
Trump’s tariffs decision coming Tuesday... President Trump is set to announce on Tuesday whether he will implement 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada (with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports) and an additional 10% tariff increase on imports from China. Mexican negotiators are in Washington to meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in a bid to reach a last-minute deal to avoid U.S. tariffs. Canada is also ramping up efforts to avert U.S. tariffs but is ready with a two-step retaliatory tariff plan targeting C$155 billion ($107.14 billion) of U.S. goods. Lutnick indicated the situation remains “fluid,” suggesting room for negotiation.
Rollins vows to shield farmers amid tariff turmoil... USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins assured farmers she’d be “in the room” to protect them from the economic fallout of Trump’s upcoming tariffs. Speaking at the Commodity Classic in Denver, Rollins pledged support against tariff retaliation, promised funding for conservation programs and announced the new $10 billion Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) which will be based on 2024 acreage reporting data. Additionally, she discussed the $21 billion in disaster relief, emphasizing that it would be distributed based solely on need, without consideration of race or geographic. She also addressed USDA’s staffing challenges, bird flu response and her commitment to balancing health initiatives with agricultural interests. Rollins again noted the release of payments from three major conservation programs: the Environmental Quality Incentives Program, Conservation Security Program, and Agricultural Conservation Easement Program. These programs had been paused since the beginning of the new Trump administration. Comments: The only real news from Rollins’ Denver remarks was the ECAP naming for the $10 billion in farmer economic aid.
India’s trade minister visits U.S. for crucial trade talks... India’s Trade Minister Piyush Goyal has embarked on a sudden visit to the U.S. to engage in trade negotiations, ahead of President Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs set to take effect in early April. Goyal aims to gain clarity on the tariffs’ impact on India and explore potential concessions to mitigate losses, which Citi Research estimates could reach $7 billion annually. India remains open to discussing tariff reductions on industrial goods but is resistant to lowering agricultural tariffs to protect its farmers. The visit follows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s U.S. trip, where both nations targeted $500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.
The week ahead in Washington... President Trump addresses a joint session of Congress on Tuesday evening, though it’s not officially a State of the Union address. Key economic data this week will be Friday’s release of February employment figures. The Fed will release its Beige Book report, highlighting economic conditions in the 12 districts, on Wednesday. USDA will update ag trade data for January on Friday. Click here to view the full slate of activity for the week ahead.
Brazil’s soybean harvest, safrinha corn planting surges... Brazil’s soybean harvest jumped 11 percentage points to 50% done as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was two points ahead of the same date last year. Safrinha corn planting surged 16 points to 80%, though that was still six points behind year-ago. AgRural said, “Crops are developing well throughout the region, but the hot and dry weather, which will continue for a few more days on the forecast maps, is causing concern in areas of Paraná, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul.”
Monthly slowdown in soy crush, corn-for-ethanol use expected... Analysts expect USDA to report January soybean crush totaled 210.9 million bu., according to a Bloomberg survey. That would be down 6.8 million bu. (3.1%) from the all-time record in December but up 16.1 million bu. (8.3%) from year-ago. Corn-for-ethanol use is expected to come in at 465.8 million bu., which would be down 7.4 million bu. (1.6%) from December but up 24.7 million bu. (5.6%) from last year.
China’s key political gathering set to focus on economic challenges... The third session of the 14th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee will begin on Tuesday in Beijing. This annual event, part of China’s “two sessions” along with the National People’s Congress (NPC), will bring together over 2,000 members. The agenda includes reviewing work reports, discussing key national policies and focusing on economic development amid ongoing challenges, including a trade war with the United States. Delegates from Hong Kong are also expected, with discussions likely on further integration with mainland China.
EPA delays E15 expansion in South Dakota, Ohio... EPA said on Friday it would delay action by one year to allow year-round sales of E15 gasoline in South Dakota and Ohio, two of eight Midwestern states that requested the agency approve year-round sales of the product. States had until Feb. 26 to seek a one-year delay. EPA’s implementation will now only apply to Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and Wisconsin – after South Dakota and Ohio opted for the delay. Kansas, which was not among the eight states addressed in the final rule, had submitted a similar request to the petition as Ohio and South Dakota for a one-year delay, EPA said.
China’s manufacturing sector expands in February... China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in February, marking the first expansion in three months, as companies resumed activities following the Lunar New Year celebration. Output, new orders and buying levels all expanded in February. Foreign orders and employment remained weak. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February, also the highest reading since last November. Output and new orders grew the most in three months, while foreign sales also increased.
Euro zone inflation eases in February... Euro zone consumer inflation eased to 2.4% above year-ago in February from a six-month high of 2.5% the previous month. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, eased to 2.6%, the lowest since January 2022. However, both readings came in 0.1 point above expectations.
Wholesale beef prices trying to stabilize... Wholesale beef prices firmed 65 cents for Choice to $311.83 and slipped 8 cents for Select to $302.05 on Friday. After recent heavy price pressure, wholesale values have stabilized around current levels.
Belly prices remain volatile... The pork cutout fell $2.54 to $98.42 on Friday amid a $22.88 plunge in primal bellies. Belly prices have been volatile, with large daily prices swings over the past week driving movement in cutout. The CME lean hog index is up a nickel to $89.44 as of Feb. 27, though it has declined four of the last six days.
Weekend demand news... South Korea purchased 65,000 MT of U.S. feed wheat and tendered to buy 79,976 MT of rice, with 33,300 MT to be sourced from the U.S. and the remainder from China, Thailand and Vietnam.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
- 2:00 p.m. Cotton System Consumption and Stocks — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Cotton System Consumption and Stocks Annual — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings - Annual — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production — NASS