Good morning!
Soy leads overnight strength… Soybeans saw strength during most of the overnight session, corn pivoted near unchanged while wheat saw relative weakness, particularly HRW contracts. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are fractionally lower, soybeans are mostly 3 to 4 cents higher, SRW wheat is fractionally to a penny lower, HRW wheat is 4 to 6 cents lower and HRS wheat is 2 to 3 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower while front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher.
Potentially market-moving reports out later this morning... USDA will release its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks Reports at 11:00 a.m. CT, both of which have potential to trigger strong price reactions. Most of the pre-report focus has been on planting intentions for the upcoming growing season. But quarterly stocks have a history of producing big price moves, especially for the corn market, as analysts have struggled to accurately predict those figures. Pre-report expectations.
Odds increasing of new ag policy in GOP measure… Odds increasing that some portions of a new farm bill will be included in the coming GOP reconciliation measure. So say Capitol Hill contacts. If so, that would mean higher reference prices and some positive changes for crop insurance. It will also mean changes for SNAP (food stamps) and the Thrifty Food Program. These topics will be part of discussions this week on Capital Hill.
The week ahead in Washington... April 2 brings President Trumps big reciprocal tariff announcement, coined as tariff “Liberation Day.” This reciprocal announcement is being referred to as “the big one” and is expected to target countries imposing tariffs on U.S. exports by matching those rates. White House officials have said the coming tariffs will build on each other, meaning some countries could see certain goods tariffed upward of 40% to 50% if Trump moves forward with all his threats. Many countries will likely retaliate with their own tariffs and other measures, though many will also likely keep the door to diplomacy open in hopes of receiving exemptions or narrowing the scope of tariffs. Friday brings the monthly U.S. jobs report and Powell will also be giving a speech midmorning.
Tariffs expected to raise auto costs… Retaliatory tariffs are expected to force foreign automakers to raise their prices, reigniting auto inflation that has largely stalled since the supply-chain disruption fueled inflation spike starting in 2021. Trump told NBC News during a Saturday interview that he “couldn’t care less” if foreign automakers raise their prices abroad in reaction to U.S. tariffs because U.S.-made auto sales would benefit. “The world has been ripping off the United States for the last 40 years and more,” Trump added. “And all we’re doing is being fair, and frankly, I’m being very generous.”
Trump threatens tariffs on Russian oil buyers… President Trump threatened tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on those who buy Russian oil over the weekend. The tariff threat was in response to frustration regarding the inability to make a deal to end the war in Ukraine. Oil markets did not react much to the news as “there’s an element of fatigue with the [tariff] announcements,” said ING’s head of commodities strategy.
Navarro predicts $6 trillion tariff windfall... In a bold weekend claim, White House aide Peter Navarro said President Trump’s forthcoming tariffs could raise over $6 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade — a move experts say would be the largest peacetime tax hike in modern U.S. history. Appearing on Fox News, Navarro said Trump’s auto tariffs, set to announced Wednesday — dubbed “Liberation Day” by the president — would generate $100 billion annually, with an additional, unspecified tariff regime bringing in $600 billion per year. Navarro’s sweeping revenue projection hints at potentially sweeping new trade measures. However, it remains unclear whether he was revealing formal policy or merely advocating from his hawkish position within the White House.
Rollins set for high-profile ag tour in Iowa on Monday... USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will be on the ground in Iowa Monday, March 31, for a full day of agriculture-focused stops. She’ll be joined by a powerful lineup of Iowa leaders including Governor Kim Reynolds, Sen. Joni Ernst, Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig. Rollins’ visit will highlight biofuels, livestock, and crop production — key sectors in Iowa’s ag economy. The tour includes several media availabilities throughout the day.
U.S. scours Europe for eggs amid soaring prices… The U.S. government is scrambling to secure egg imports from Europe to combat skyrocketing prices at home, just as American families gear up for Easter. But the overseas egg hunt is proving more complicated than expected, the Associated Press reports. USDA has approached several European nations — including Germany, Poland, Italy, and Sweden — seeking relief from a domestic shortage caused by avian flu, according to European industry groups. However, Europe is facing its own bird flu challenges and Easter demand, leaving little surplus to spare.
Russia and U.S. beginning talks on rare earth metals… Russia and the United States have started talks on joint rare earth metals and other projects in Russia, and some companies have already expressed an interest in them, President Vladimir Putin’s investment envoy said. This comes as Zelenskyy wants to back out on the U.S. and Ukraine deal for Ukrainian natural resources. China is a large supplier of rare earth metals to the U.S., finding an alternative to Chinese goods could help protect against retaliatory tariff policies out of Beijing.
Gold surges to record highs… Nearby gold futures rose over $3,100/ounce today to a record high on continued safe-haven demand and as a potential inflation hedge against rising costs due to upcoming tariffs. Gold is poised for the best month in a year and the best quarter in over 38 years as prices have surged higher since the turn of the calendar.
Cash cattle challenges record… Cash cattle prices are set to challenge the record high as trade picked up to end last week, though the official average won’t be known until later this week. Wholesale beef continues to pull back from recent highs as Choice fell $2.90 to $332.82 and Select slipped 76 cents to $318.68 Friday.
CME lean hog index ticks back lower… After posting modest gains much of last week, the CME lean hog index is down 35 cents to $88.78 as of March 27. Pork cutout rebounded from recent losses Friday, climbing $1.72 to $96.56 Friday, led by strength in bellies and butts.
Weekend demand news... Syria issued a tender to purchase about 100,000 MT of wheat.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
- 11:00 a.m. Grain Stocks — NASS
- 11:00 a.m. Prospective Plantings — NASS
- 11:00 a.m. Rice Stocks — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Agricultural Prices — NASS