Good morning!
Firmer tone overnight… Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the upside in overnight trade with corn and wheat leading the way higher, extending yesterday’s report driven gains. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are 3 to 4 cents higher and wheat futures are 3 to 5 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 50 points higher while front month crude oil futures are trading around unchanged following yesterday’s surge higher.
Trump’s tariff push sparks global buzz… White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt signaled a bold new wave of tariffs in an announcement expected Wednesday, though she didn’t specify how many countries would be affected. The move, she said, is aimed at countering what the U.S. considers decades of unfair trade practices. Leavitt said there would be no exemptions for farmers.
Trump teases ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plan, keeps details under wraps... President Donald Trump Monday evening confirmed he has finalized his long-awaited “Liberation Day” tariff plan — but he’s not saying what it is just yet. Set to be unveiled by Wednesday, the announcement could reshape global trade dynamics and signal how aggressively the Trump administration plans to use tariffs in his second term. A Reuters reported noted that White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports to the U.S.
Crush reports out this afternoon… USDA will report grain and oilseed crushings this afternoon. Crush is expected to have fallen month over month and year over year, given the shorter month. A Bloomberg report shows expectations for 188.6 million bushels of soybeans and 417.2 million bushels of corn being crushed in February.
USDA Secretary Rollins highlights biofuels, trade, and farmer support during Iowa visit... Rollins engaged in a series of events and discussions centered on agriculture, biofuels, trade policy, and farmer support. Rollins announced $537 million in funding under the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP) to support 543 biofuel infrastructure projects across 29 states. This funding aims to expand access to higher ethanol blends like E15, benefiting both farmers and consumers by increasing demand for corn and reducing fuel costs. Rollins addressed concerns about potential retaliatory tariffs as President Trump prepares to announce new global tariffs. She expressed hope that renegotiations would benefit farmers but acknowledged that USDA is preparing for possible trade-aid payments if agricultural exports are negatively impacted.
Musk targets ‘strangely wealthy’ lawmakers with new DOGE probe... At a Sunday night town hall in Wisconsin, Elon Musk made headlines by revealing that his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will investigate how some U.S. lawmakers have amassed considerable wealth despite their relatively modest government salaries. Responding to an attendee’s question about alleged USAID funds tied to Democratic lawmakers Maxine Waters, Adam Schiff, and Chuck Schumer, Musk claimed there may be a pattern of funds being routed through international NGOs before circling back into the U.S. and into certain political pockets. “There’s a lot of strangely wealthy members of Congress where I’m trying to connect the dots,” Musk told the crowd.
Trump pushes domestic potash, but reliance on imports persists… President Donald Trump is calling for an immediate ramp-up in domestic potash production as part of his broader strategy to reduce U.S. reliance on foreign minerals. However, Bloomberg reports that industry experts say the move won’t be enough to offset America’s deep dependence on imports — especially from Canada. Currently, the U.S. imports about 90% of its potash, a key ingredient in producing corn and soybeans. Canadian producers dominate the market, while U.S. production makes up less than 1% of domestic demand, according to Corey Rosenbusch, CEO of the Fertilizer Institute.
Xi/Trump trade tensions flare as U.S. review challenges China deal… Bloomberg reports that the U.S. is preparing to deliver a long-anticipated verdict on China’s compliance with the 2020 “Phase 1” trade deal — a review that could escalate tensions between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during an already high-stakes week for U.S./China relations. The review, ordered by Trump on his first day back in office, focuses on whether Beijing upheld its pledge to purchase an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods — a target that official data shows was missed. The findings could influence a range of decisions, including whether to revoke China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status, a move likened to slapping a 30% tariff on Chinese goods.
Chinese manufacturing index hit four-month high… The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in March 2025, up from February’s 50.8, above expectations of 51.1. This marked the highest reading since last November, with output growth accelerating due to a sustained rise in new orders amid improved demand conditions. Foreign sales grew the most in 11 months. Firms boosted their buying levels in response to a renewed rise in stock purchases. Meanwhile, employment increased for the 1st time since August 2023, albeit only marginally.
Eurozone inflation slows… Annual inflation in the Eurozone eased to 2.2% in March, the lowest rate since Nov. 2024 and slightly below market expectations of 2.13%. Price growth slowed for services and energy costs declined, while costs for processed foods surged. Core inflation fell to 2.4%, below market expectation of 2.5% and came in at the lowest mark since Jan. 2022. Slowing inflation has traders boosting rate cut bets, especially as tariffs are expected to weigh on growth.
Argus cuts Russian wheat estimate… Argus Media cut their forecast for Russian wheat production to 2025/26 to 80.3 MMT, down from 81.5 MMT in November. The cut came amidst expectations for lower spring wheat plantings. That would be below 2024/25 production of 81.3 MMT. Recent conditions have allowed for better winter wheat conditions but global wheat prices are doing little to encourage spring plantings as the worlds top importers have slowed purchases.
Australian wheat production likely to slip… Australia’s wheat production is likely to drop by 16% in 2025/26 from last year’s bumper crop as dryness reduces soil moisture in some regions. Farmers are planting their winter crops over the next couple months in the world’s third largest exporting country. Australia is likely to produce 28.6 million metric tons of wheat in 2025/26, an average of five analysts and traders polled by Reuters shows, down 16.1% from 34.1 million a year earlier.
Wholesale beef resumes climb… Choice cutout rose $2.44 to $335.26 Monday while Select firmed $1.33 to $320.01. Rising beef prices have done little to offset the recent rally in cash cattle prices. Last week’s cash cattle average did slip 62 cents from the previous week’s record, but remained strong at $212.14.
Pork cutout inches higher… Wholesale pork continues to bounce from last week’s low, though demand has slowed as prices have risen. Cutout rose 89 cents to $97.45 Monday, though movement slid to 231.56 loads. The CME lean hog index continues to slide, falling another 28 cents to $88.50 as of March 28.
Overnight demand news... None.
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Today’s reports
- 2:00 p.m. Cotton System Consumption and Stocks — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Hatchery Production - Annual — NASS