Good morning!
Weakness across the board overnight… Corn, soybeans and SRW wheat each favored the downside in overnight trade as woes surrounding this afternoon’s tariff announcement dictate trade. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are 4 to 6 cents lower, soybeans are 6 to 7 cents lower, SRW wheat is 3 to 4 cents lower, HRW wheat is a penny to 2 higher and HRS wheat is 2 to 4 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures are facing modest profit-taking while the U.S. dollar index is around 150 points lower.
Tariff ‘Liberation Day’ is here… Trump to unveil new tariffs after market close today; immediate impact expected; White House defends economic strategy amid investor jitters. President Donald Trump is set to announce a new wave of tariffs today at 4 p.m. ET, timing the news to land after financial markets close. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the update, noting the tariffs will take “immediate effect.” Though the exact scope remains unclear, Leavitt said Trump is open to discussions with foreign governments and corporations seeking lower rates. She declined to specify which countries have reached out, but emphasized that Trump is “always up to take a phone call.”
White House to release reports on trade practices this afternoon… The Trump administration tasked several departments with preparing reports on trade practices and tariff recommendations, which are now due. These reports will inform the reciprocal tariffs announcement this afternoon. The key departments involved include: Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), Department of Commerce, Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Click here for details as to where each department is researching, found on our website in this morning’s policy update.
GOP eyes end run to cement Trump tax cuts… Senate Republicans are pursuing a controversial strategy to make President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent, using a budgetary maneuver that avoids acknowledging the $4.6 trillion cost over the next decade. The tactic hinges on using a “current policy baseline,” which assumes the cuts are already permanent and therefore cost nothing to extend. GOP leaders, including Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), argue that the law gives the Budget Committee authority to define this baseline — sidestepping the usual scoring rules and Senate parliamentarian input.
Fed president paints grim picture of U.S. economic growth… Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin painted a grim picture of the U.S. economic landscape, comparing it to navigating in a “dense fog” with zero visibility. His remarks point to an environment of deep uncertainty for businesses and consumers alike — driven largely by erratic policy changes and mounting trade tensions. Businesses are hitting the brakes on both expansion and contraction. Consumers, wary of what lies ahead, are similarly holding back. This caution is dragging down sentiment and threatening broader economic momentum.
DOGE continues push to shrink government workforce… USDA launches second deferred resignation program amid workforce downsizing push. USDA initiated the second and final phase of its Deferred Resignation Program, running from April 1 to April 8, 2025. The initiative offers eligible employees the option to resign while continuing to receive full pay and benefits through Sept. 30, 2025. This program is part of a broader strategy under the Trump administration aimed at reducing the size of the federal workforce through voluntary departures rather than layoffs. USDA’s first round of the program, launched earlier this year, drew participation from about 75,000 employees.
Trump admin ousts key bird flu staff... In a sweeping move to downsize the federal government, the Trump administration has laid off staff overseeing the U.S. bird flu response, Reuters reports. Among those let go were leaders and key personnel at the FDA’s Center for Veterinary Medicine, which monitors outbreaks in both pet food and dairy. Employees arriving for work on Tuesday were locked out and informed of immediate termination. The cuts are part of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s promise to eliminate 10,000 federal health agency positions. The American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA) says the layoffs hit areas crucial to public safety: bird flu response, food safety, and animal health.
Farmer sentiment falls sharply in March as trade and policy concerns mount... Farmer sentiment declined notably in March amid growing unease over agricultural trade and farm policy, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The barometer fell 12 points to a reading of 140, down from 152 in February. The drop was largely driven by weaker expectations for the future and ongoing uncertainty in the sector.
Russia restricting oil exports… Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, imposed restrictions on oil exports coming out of a Black Sea port. That marks the second restriction on exports in just a few days, as they recently restricted loadings from a key Caspian pipeline. Russia is slowing exports right after President Trump said he is unhappy with Russia and the rate of progress in peace talks with Ukraine, threatening to put tariffs on buyers of Russian oil.
Illinois continues to lead biodiesel blend rate… Illinois raises biodiesel blend rate to B17, with full B20 implementation on the horizon. Illinois continues to lead on sustainable fuels, as a 2022 bipartisan bill to promote higher biodiesel blends takes another major step forward. Beginning April 1, the minimum biodiesel blend required to qualify for a state tax exemption increased from B14 to B17 — meaning 17% of every qualifying diesel gallon must come from biodiesel, predominantly made from Illinois-grown soybeans.
Gold continues to push to record highs… Nearby gold futures have marked record highs in each of the past four session as safe-haven demand continues to prop up the yellow metal. The anticipation of upcoming tariffs and slowing world GDP has traders and investors looking for an alternative store of their money. Central banks continue to be strong buyers of gold as well, shoring up reserves as they divest from U.S. treasuries.
U.S./Mexico border crossings plummet amid aggressive crackdown... Illegal crossings at the U.S./Mexico border have dropped to record lows, with just 7,180 migrants detained in March 2025 — down from a four-year monthly average of 155,000. The sharp decline follows aggressive enforcement by both the U.S. and Mexico. President Trump’s administration has enacted sweeping measures, including mass deportations, near-total asylum bans, and military support at the border. In response to U.S. pressure and tariff threats, Mexico has mobilized thousands of National Guard troops to contain migration.
Choice beef surges… Choice cutout rocketed $6.96 higher to $342.22 Tuesday, marking the highest quote since June 2023. Select climbed $2.06 to $322.07. Movement slid to 95 loads as higher prices limited demand.
Cash hog index bounce… The CME lean hog index is up 15 cents to $88.65 as of March 31. The index continues to mimic action in pork cutout, delayed a few days. Cutout sunk $1.94 to $95.51 Tuesday, which will likely weigh on the index later this week.
Overnight demand news... None.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 9:30 a.m. Weekly Ethanol Production — EIA
- 11:00 a.m. Weekly Weather: State Stories — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Broiler Hatchery — NASS