Good morning!
Grains lead overnight strength… Wheat is trading at more than two-week highs while corn is seeing spillover strength. Soybeans struggled to build on grain strength. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 4 to 6 cents higher, soybeans are around a penny higher and wheat is 11 to 16 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 200 points lower while front-month crude oil futures are about a dollar higher.
Sharp slowdown in NOPA crush for February... The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to report its members crushed 185.2 million bu. of soybeans in February, according to a Reuters survey. That would be down 7.6% from January and 0.5% less than last year’s record for the month. Soyoil stocks are expected to rise to 1.386 billion pounds.
Trump to speak to Putin about ceasefire plan… President Donald Trump announced he would speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to seek an agreement on ending Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022. “A lot of work’s been done over the weekend,” Trump said aboard Air Force One on Sunday. “We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance.” His comments followed a visit by his envoy, Steve Witkoff, to Moscow for direct negotiations with Putin. Ukraine has already agreed to a 30-day ceasefire during Saudi-hosted talks, contingent on Russia’s participation. Putin’s stance remains unclear.
Rubio signals U.S. trade policy reset… U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday that after imposing tariffs on major trading partners, the U.S. could pursue bilateral trade talks to establish new agreements. His comments follow President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 200% tariff on European alcohol imports, intensifying global trade tensions. Speaking on Face the Nation, Rubio emphasized that the tariff measures are universal and aimed at creating a new “baseline of fairness and reciprocity” before engaging in further negotiations. “This is global. It’s not against Canada, it’s not against Mexico, it’s not against the EU, it’s everybody,” Rubio said. He reiterated that the current trade dynamics are unsustainable and require a fundamental reset.
U.S. seeking to import eggs… USDA has reached out to Denmark and other European nations to explore egg imports as domestic prices surge due to a worsening bird flu outbreak, Reuters reported. Wholesale egg prices in the U.S. have hit record highs, rising 59% year-over-year in February, despite President Donald Trump’s earlier pledge to lower them. A letter reviewed by Reuters shows that U.S. officials formally inquired about European egg supplies in late February, with follow-up requests to Denmark in early March. However, the Danish Egg Association noted that Europe is also facing shortages due to increased consumption and avian flu.
Trade war expected to weigh on world GDP…The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered their G20 GDP forecast to 3.1% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026 after previously projecting GDP at 3.3% for both years previously. That would be down from 3.2% in 2024. The firm notes a tariff and inflation driven slowdown in the U.S., Mexico and Canada as the leading cause in faltering G20 GDP growth. U.S. growth forecasts have been downgraded to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Canada’s growth forecast has been drastically reduced to 0.7%, while Mexico is expected to enter a recession.
Brazilian corn prices reach highest mark in nearly three years… Domestic corn prices in Brazil ended last week solidly higher at the highest level since April 2022. This year, Brazilian corn prices are up about 24%, led by strong feed and ethanol demand and low inventories. Stocks are likely to remain tight ahead of Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest in the early summer. Strong domestic demand could limit the amount of corn Brazil can export, potentially benefiting U.S. exports.
Russia trims wheat export tax… Russia’s tax on wheat exports will decline to 2,403.0 rubles ($28.54) per metric ton for March 19-25, down from 2,444.4 rubles ($29.13) the previous week. That is nearly half of where it was at the beginning of the year. Russian exports continue to fall below year-ago despite lower export taxes. Russia is estimated to export 1.5 MMT of wheat in March, down from 1.9 MMT in February and 4.8 MMT in March 2024.
The week ahead in Washington... Both the House and Senate are out this week following last week’s conclusion of a stopgap spending measure through September. The focus this week will be on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting which on Wednesday is expected to result in no change in interest rates. As usual, the Fed statement will be important for any rate clues ahead, including the Fed dot plot. Bipartisan bill expands crop insurance for new farmers and veterans. U.S. Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and John Thune (R-S.D.) have introduced the Crop Insurance for Future Farmers Act, a bipartisan measure aimed at helping beginning farmers and veterans secure more affordable crop insurance. Here is a link to the website for this week’s full watchlist.
Industrial production in China tops estimates… China’s industrial production expanded by 5.9% year-over-year in January-February 2025 combined, faster than market forecasts of a 5.3% rise, but easing from 6.2% growth in December 2024. The moderation in growth came amid softer increases in manufacturing, while electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply activities grew at the same pace as in December (1.1%). On a monthly basis, industrial output shrank by 0.51% in February. In 2024, industrial output grew by 5.8%. China combines industrial production data for January and February to smooth out the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday, which falls at different times each year.
U.S. meat plants export registrations lapse… Export registrations for more than 1,000 U.S. meat plants granted by China under the 2020 “Phase 1” trade dela lapsed on Sunday, according to a Reuters report. That represents about two-thirds of total plants and could restrict U.S. access to the Chinese market, the world’s largest importer of meat. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has said China did not respond to repeated requests to renew plant registrations, potentially violating the Phase 1 trade agreement.
Resurgent bird flu outbreak hits U.S… The United States has reported its first outbreak of H7N9 bird flu on a poultry farm since 2017, according to the World Organization for Animal Health. The highly pathogenic avian influenza has spread globally in recent years, leading to the culling of hundreds of millions of poultry, including in the U.S.
Cash cattle trade providing little direction… Cash cattle trade remained light into Friday of last week, with very few head trading hands ahead of the end of the week. Trade is likely to be pushed late into the week again this week given the Cattle on Feed Report.
Cash hog fundamentals remain choppy… The CME lean hog index is down 19 cents to $89.55 as of March 13, though that remains above the late February low. Pork cutout inched 9 cents higher to $97.38 Friday, led by strength in ribs.
Weekend demand news... Iran bought around 120,000 MT of wheat, expected to be sourced from Russia.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
- 11:00 a.m. Monthly Soybean Crush — NOPA
- 2:00 p.m. Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: March 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: March 2025 — ERS