Good morning!
Quiet overnight trade… Corn, soybeans and wheat did not stray far from unchanged overnight, with volume in each being quite light. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn and soybean futures are near unchanged to fractionally lower while wheat futures are about a penny higher. Front-month crude oil futures are about 30 cents lower, while the U.S. dollar index is around 75 points higher.
Tariffs would deepen U.S./Mexico sugar trade woes… The US is set to import the least amount of sugar from Mexico since 2008 as droughts and impending tariffs disrupt trade, Bloomberg reports. A proposed 25% duty under the North American trade agreement has already stalled future shipments, pushing U.S. buyers toward higher-taxed imports from other countries like Brazil. Once Mexico’s top sugar buyer, the U.S. is now sourcing more from alternative markets as supply constraints and trade barriers make Mexican sugar less competitive.
Brazil prepares for tough tariff talks with U.S… Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad signaled on Thursday that upcoming trade negotiations with the U.S. are likely to be prolonged, particularly focusing on sugar and ethanol. Speaking to GloboNews TV, Haddad said the U.S. would likely bring up ethanol, while Brazil would counter with sugar. His comments come amid broader concerns over potential U.S. tariff hikes, with a White House fact sheet already citing Brazil’s ethanol tariffs as unfair. The issue has drawn attention from Brazil’s Energy and Mining Minister Alexandre Silveira, who called any new U.S. tariffs on Brazilian ethanol “unreasonable,” pointing to a history of joint negotiation on ethanol and sugar trade. Brazil, a major global sugar producer, primarily derives its ethanol from sugarcane — unlike the U.S., which uses corn.
China courts Trump-aligned Sen. Daines amid stalled trade talks... Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), a close ally of President Donald Trump, is set to meet with a senior Chinese leader in Beijing this weekend — the first public meeting between a U.S. politician and a top Chinese official since Trump’s return to office. The visit comes amid stalled trade negotiations and escalating tensions over tariffs. Daines, who previously served as a backchannel during the 2019 trade war, announced the trip following a meeting with Trump, saying he would advance the “America First” agenda. He’s reportedly seeking to lay the groundwork for a potential summit between Trump and Xi Jinping.
Canadian farmers squeezed as China tariffs hit… Canadian farmers are bracing for a tough planting season as new Chinese tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products took effect March 20, compounding tensions with looming U.S. trade actions. China has imposed a 100% tariff on canola oil, canola meal, and peas, along with 25% duties on aquatic products and pork, in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese steel, aluminum, and electric vehicles.
Taiwan to send ag delegation to U.S… Taiwan is planning to send an agricultural delegation to the U.S. in September as part of its efforts to reduce the trade surplus with the U.S. This move is aimed at boosting imports from the U.S. and mitigating potential tariff increases on Taiwanese exports, which were previously threatened by the Trump administration. The delegation, jointly organized by Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Agriculture, will focus on purchasing U.S. agricultural products.
Fed’s decision to slow bond sales concerning… Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized the Federal Reserve’s decision to slow its reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings, calling it a troubling sign of weak demand for long-term debt. “This should be getting people’s attention as an alarming development,” Summers said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin. The move indicated that Fed policymakers determined there was “limited absorption capacity in the markets for long-term bonds,” he said, suggesting the Fed is acting preemptively to avoid market instability.
U.S. close to signing minerals deal with Ukraine… President Trump said the U.S. will sign a minerals and natural resources deal with Ukraine shortly and that his efforts to achieve peace in the Black Sea were going “pretty well” after his talks with Russian and Ukrainian leaders this week. The deal is seen as repayment for U.S. aid during the war and entails the Ukrainian government contributing 50% of state-owned natural resources to a U.S.-Ukraine managed reconstruction investment fund.
OPEC+ drafts new plan for oil cuts… OPEC+ issued a new schedule for seven member nations to make further oil production cuts to compensate for pumping agreed upon levels. This overtakes their plans to hike production that was set to take place next month. The plan entails monthly cuts between 189,000 barrels per day and 435,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day, agreed in a series of steps since 2022 to support prices.
Argentine firm lifts strike… Argentine oilseed workers lifted a strike and returned to work at soybean processing plantes belonging to conglomerate Vicentin after the firm scheduled payments for overdue wages, union SOEA said on Thursday. This is the second strike at a crush facility in Argentina in the past couple weeks.
Japan inflation wanes… Japan’s annual inflation rate fell to 3.7% in February 2025 from 4.0% in January, driven by a sharp slowdown in electricity and gas prices following the reinstatement of government energy subsidies. Food price increases also moderated after hitting a 15-month high. Inflation remained steady for housing and clothing, while rising for transport, furniture, and communications. Core inflation dropped to 3.0% from January’s 19-month peak of 3.2%, slightly above forecasts.
Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon… USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed Report today. A survey done by the CME shows expectations that February large-lot (1,000-plus head) marketings fell to just over 91% of year-ago, with last month’s average placement estimate at almost 15% under year-ago. The net result of those estimates is a March 1 feedlot population figure about 2% under its 2024 counterpart.
Cash cattle fundamentals weaken modestly… Light cash trade took place in Iowa or Minnesota at $202.00, down about $3.00 from last week’s average for the area. Cutout ended Thursday mixed as Choice slipped $1.55 to $328.06 while Select inched 68 cents higher to $309.36.
Hog index posts new low… The CME lean hog index is down 21 cents to $89.20 as of March 19, negating the past couple days of strength and posting a fresh for-the-move low. Pork cutout did rebound Thursday, rising 67 cents to $95.86, led by strength in bellies, butts and ribs.
Overnight demand news... Syria still seeking offers in 100,000 MT wheat tender.
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Today’s reports
- 2:00 p.m. Cattle on Feed — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Chickens and Eggs — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Milk Production — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
- 2:30 p.m. Commitments of Traders — CFTC