Good morning!
Soybeans continue to lead weakness… Soybeans continue to see relative weakness with wheat following to the downside. Corn is seeing relative strength. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are steady to a penny higher, soybeans are 3 to 5 cents lower and winter wheat futures are 4 to 6 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is up around 500 points while front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged.
U.S. and Canada limit biofuel production… Both U.S. and Canadian biofuel companies are throttling biofuel production to limit losses amid uncertainty regarding President Trump’s approach to green fuel subsidies and the potential for a worsening trade war. Tariffs are quickly pricing out feedstocks made from crushing and oilseed subsidies are at risk, making production of renewable fuels too expensive. This could limit demand for oilseeds in the next couple years if little changes from current polices.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended March 13, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | Last week (in MT) | |
| Corn | 800,000-1,700,000 | 967,348 |
| Wheat | 300,000-700,000 | 783,416 |
| Soybeans | 400,000-900,000 | 751,651 |
| Soymeal | 140,000-450,000 | 184,792 |
| Soyoil | 15,000-50,000 | 68,512 |
Allendale releases planting survey… A survey of farmers released by Allendale showed plantings of corn up 3.7% from 2024 at 93.981 million acres and plantings of soybeans down 3.2% at 84.283 million acres. That is not far from USDA’s projections at Outlook Forum, which pegged corn seedings at 94 million acres and soybeans at 84 million acres. The Allendale survey pegged wheat plantings at 45.863 million acres.
China’s imports of U.S. beans up sharply… China’s soybean imports from the U.S. jumped 84.1% from year ago in the first two months of 2025. China brought in 9.13 MMT of soybeans in the first two months of 2025, up from 4.96 MMT last year. Competition from Brazil is expected to limit imports in the coming months. Imports from Brazil in January to February fell 48.4% from a year ago to 3.59 MMT. The recent harvest surge should allow more beans to flow to China from Brazil in the next couple months.
Fees on China linked ships could disrupt ag exports… President Trump’s plan to revive U.S. shipbuilding using massive fees on China-linked vessels could weigh on agricultural exports as exporters struggle to find ships to send goods abroad. Trump is drafting an executive order that would levy fines of up to $1.5 million on China-made ships or vessels from fleets that include ships made in China. This comes at a time when U.S. ag exports are already in jeopardy due to higher costs from tariffs.
U.S. and Russia talk on Black Sea shipping… Following discussions between President Donald Trump and both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Kremlin announced that the U.S. and Russia would explore ways to ensure safe shipping in the Black Sea. These talks, part of broader negotiations on a potential Ukrainian peace deal, are set to take place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated the discussions could occur early next week, with expert-level talks expected to continue in the coming days.
Fed keeps rates unchanged… The Federal Reserve kept their overnight lending rate unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5%, though still expect to cut rates twice in 2025. Chaiman Powell said on Wednesday that the Trump administration’s policies, including hefty import tariffs, have tilted the economy towards slower growth and at least temporarily higher inflation. Powell noted high uncertainty several times during his presser following yesterday’s interest rate decision. President Donald Trump has renewed calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, arguing that lower rates would support his tariff policies.
Supreme Court may revisit presidential power over Fed… A new legal case could challenge the long-standing belief that the White House cannot remove Federal Reserve leadership, according to former senior Fed official David Wilcox. The issue gained attention after Trump fired two Democratic FTC members, recalling a 1933 case where the Supreme Court ruled Congress could limit presidential firing power. Wilcox, in a research note, warns that if the court overturns that precedent, the Federal Reserve’s independence could be at serious risk.
IRS, DHS discuss sharing tax data for deportations… The IRS and the Department of Homeland Security are in talks to share confidential taxpayer data to aid deportation efforts. Currently, undocumented immigrants can register with the IRS and pay taxes, with their information protected under tax law. However, this new effort could change that. Two immigrant rights groups have sued to block the move, but a district judge on Wednesday declined to issue an emergency order preventing the IRS from sharing the data.
EPA delays year-round E15 in Ohio, South Dakota counties… EPA finalized a one-year delay in implementing the 1-psi waiver for year-round E15 fuel sales in Ohio and nine South Dakota counties. The rule, published in the Federal Register (link), pushes the effective date to April 28, 2026. The agency cited supply concerns following a refinery explosion affecting western South Dakota, and Ohio’s lack of infrastructure for low-RVP gasoline. Without the delay, EPA warned of an insufficient gasoline supply in the affected areas.
Choice cutout surges higher… Cutout has shown impressive strength following last week’s breakout higher in cattle prices. Choice cutout surged $6.29 to $329.61 on Wednesday, while Select lost 55 cents to $308.68. Cash cattle trade remains non-existent so far this week.
Cash hog fundamentals shaky… The CME lean hog index is up another 9 cents to $89.41, but USDA data points to another turn lower to end the week. Pork cutout continues to inch lower near recent lows, falling 45 cents to $95.19 Wednesday, led by losses in ribs.
Overnight demand news... None
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Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 7:30 a.m. Extended Weather Outlook — NWS
- 2:00 p.m. Oil Crops Yearbook — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Livestock Slaughter — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS