Good morning!
Day 4 Crop Tour results for Iowa and Minnesota…
Scouts on day 4 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour Thursday calculated an average corn yield of 183.81 bu. per acre in Iowa, down from last year’s 190.76 bu. per acre estimate and about even with the three-year Tour average of 183.80 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1,174.43 for Iowa, down from an average of 1,217.80 in 2021 and but up from the three-year Tour average of 1,157.00.
For Minnesota, the Tour determined an average corn yield of 190.39 bu. per acre, up from a 177.44 bu. per acre estimate in 2021 and up from the three-year Tour average of 180.96 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1,100.75 in Minnesota, up from an average of 1,027.33 in 2021 and up from the three-year Tour average of 1,026.16.
Pro Farmer’s U.S. corn and soybean crop estimates will be released today at 1:30 p.m. CT.
Corn futures gain for seventh session in past eight... December corn rose overnight, the seventh gain in the past eight sessions, amid ongoing concern heat and dryness in the Midwest will crimp yield potential. Soybeans also rose as Crop Tour scouts reported smaller yield prospects for Iowa. Wheat futures are also higher and poised for a weekly gain. At 6:35 a.m. CT, corn was 5 to 6 cents higher, soybeans were 10 to 12 cents higher and wheat was 1 to 6 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were up over $1 and the U.S. dollar index was about 200 points lower.
More U.S. lawmakers arrived in Taiwan on Thursday night… Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) is set for a three-day visit, the third visit to the island this month by members of Congress after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip led to more than a week of aggressive Chinese military exercises. Blackburn, who sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee, met Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen on Friday morning. The trip is likely to further test Washington’s tense ties with Beijing.
Europe narrowly avoids “radiation disaster…” Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, said Europe narrowly avoided a “radiation disaster” after the Russia-occupied Zaporizhia nuclear plant was temporarily disconnected from the electricity grid. Back-up generators were able to ensure supply after Russian shelling had sparked a fire in a nearby power station, he said. A Russian official blamed Ukrainian forces for the fire. The U.N.’s nuclear watchdog said its officials were “very, very close” to being able to visit the nuclear plant and assess the situation.
Putin needs a bigger army... Six months after his initial botched invasion of democratic Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin just signed a decree expanding the Kremlin’s military by 137,000. The new order, which goes into effect at the start of the calendar year, will raise the total number of uniformed Russian forces to over 1,150,000 troops, according to Dmitri Alperovitch, a Russian-born American computer security industry executive. He is co-founder and former chief technology officer of CrowdStrike. Putin “is planning for the long war,” Alperovitch warned, after Putin’s motorcade was spotted speeding toward the Kremlin late Wednesday for an apparent rare meeting with his advisors.
Fed official: inflation may remain “higher for longer...” On Thursday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an interview with CNBC’s Steve Liesman that inflation may remain “higher for longer… I mean with an eight-handle on CPI, I think we’d be happy now to get going in the right direction. There will be a debate at some point about how long do you want to linger above 2%, and what do you have to do to get it down and actually hit the target. And I think that’s an important debate, but that’s out there in the future,” Bullard told Liesman at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
California to approves plan to ban new gasoline cars by 2035… Noting an urgent need to address climate change while cutting back on air pollution, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted Thursday to require all new cars and light trucks sold by 2035 to be zero-emission vehicles. Lauren Sanchez, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s climate advisor, called it “a huge day not only for California but the entire world.” The mission, she said: “Move the state away from oil.” Liane Randolph, chairwoman of the CARB, said the rule is one of the state’s most important efforts yet to clean the air and will lead to a 50% reduction in pollution from cars and light trucks by 2040.
Shipping rate declines again… The Drewry Shipping Consultants’ index for container shipping rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles in the past week is $6,127, down 6% from the previous week and 45% below the level the week of Jan. 20. Meanwhile, A measure of rates for the bulk sector’s largest capesize vessels fell 30% in a single day.
Mortgage rates rise to a two-month high at 5.55%... Mortgage rates jumped to the highest level since June, putting more pressure on the cooling housing market. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 5.55% this week, according to a Freddie Mac survey of lenders released Thursday. That is nearly double the rate on offer a year ago, though it is down slightly from June levels, which were the highest since 2008. Mortgage rates typically track changes in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which has traded above 3% for much of this week.
Ofgem increased UK’s energy price cap by 80%... The UK’s energy watchdog pushed up the typical household’s energy bill to £3,549 ($4,186) a year. Jonathan Brearley, the regulator’s chief executive, said there was “no choice” but to increase the cap to reflect the soaring price of energy. The new prices will kick in from Oct. 1.
Cattle futures heading for down week as cash erodes… October live cattle futures are poised for the market’s first down week in the past four as the cash market softens. Live steers averaged $144.45 through Thursday morning, down about $2.43 from last week’s average. Still, the longer-term outlook for cattle prices appears supportive due to tight market-ready feedlot supplies. The price spread between Choice and Select beef cutout values, at nearly $26, remains extremely wide for this time of year. Choice values rose 71 cents Thursday to $263.54 on strong movement of 154 loads.
Hog market posting another sharp weekly decline amid slumping cash… The CME lean hog index is down $1.95 to $116.05, a drop of $3.13 over the past two days and the lowest level in nearly six weeks. However, October futures’ discount to the index is extremely wide, which may limit selling pressure. Pork cutout values fell 33 cents Thursday to $102.66, the lowest daily average since May 17. Movement was light at 254 loads.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.