Good morning!
Grains mixed in overnight trade… Corn pivoted near unchanged, soybeans fell and wheat continued lower in overnight trade. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are within a penny of unchanged, soybeans are 2 to 3 cents higher and wheat is 2to 4 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures are trading about a dollar higher and the U.S. dollar index is modestly lower.
Day 4 Crop Tour results for Iowa and Minnesota…Scouts on day 4 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour on Thursday calculated an average corn yield of 192.79 bu. per acre in Iowa, up from 182.80 bu. per acre last year but down from the three-year average of 185.79 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1,312.31 for Iowa, up from 1,190.41 last year and the three-year Tour average of 1,191.21.
For Minnesota, the Tour found an average corn yield of 164.9 bu. per acre, down from 181.34 bu. per acre last year and the three-year average of 183.06 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1.036.59 in Minnesota, down from last 984.39 year and the three-year average of 1,037.70.
Pro Farmer’s U.S. corn and soybean crop estimates will be released today at 1:30 p.m. CT.
Canada orders railways to enter arbitration...
Canada’s federal government ordered its two largest railways to enter binding arbitration with its workers’ union, swiftly ending a shutdown that business groups warned would have “devastating” economic consequences across North America. This decision was made after it became clear that negotiations were unlikely to succeed without intervention.
South Dakota Supreme Court denied eminent domain… The South Dakota Supreme Court ruled that Summit Carbon Solutions, the company behind a proposed carbon-capture pipeline, has not yet proven its right to use eminent domain to take private land. The court found that Summit has not demonstrated that it qualifies as a common carrier, a necessary condition for exercising eminent domain. As a result, the case will return to lower courts. This decision is seen as a victory for landowners opposed to the project. The ruling raises questions about the project’s future, particularly regarding whether carbon dioxide can be considered a commodity and whether Summit can be classified as a common carrier, which are key issues for determining their eminent domain rights.
Harris accepts the Democratic nomination for president… Kamala Harris gave a strong, well-delivered 37-minute speech at the Democratic National Convention, where she accepted the Democratic nomination for president. Harris promised to build an “opportunity economy” that would enable more people to succeed, regardless of whether they live in rural areas, small towns, or big cities. She emphasized the need to lower costs for healthcare, housing, and groceries, and to protect Social Security and Medicare from cuts. She also mentioned plans to address the ongoing housing crisis and to block companies from exploiting crises to raise prices.
Stabenow comments on farm bill… At the CNN/Politico Grill Thursday, Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) suggested that the two parties are still far apart in farm bill negotiations. “Bottom line, we need to sit down and negotiate and be serious,” Stabenow said. “Let’s get together, agree on a bipartisan way we’re going to raise the money” to “meet the needs of ag.” Of note, Stabenow said: “If I voted for the House bill, I’d get killed by my commodity groups.”
Powell to speak following Jackson Hole symposium... Fed chairman Jerome Powell is slated to speak at the gathering of central bank officials at 9:00 a.m. CT, giving some guidance on the size of an expected U.S. interest rate cut in September. Traders will closely watch his comments for hints in future monetary policy.
Japan inflation remains steady for third consecutive month… The annual inflation rate in Japan was at 2.8% in July 2024, holding steady for the third straight month, remaining at the highest level since February. Energy prices jumped in July at the highest pace since March 1981. Core inflation hit a five-month peak at 2.7%, keeping expectations that the central bank could further raise rates. The yen continues to trade near recent lows against the dollar, further weakness in the yen could lead to heightened volatility across markets.
Jack Daniels maker cuts back diversity initiatives… Jack Daniels maker Brown-Forman is the latest company to scale back its diversity initiatives. In a letter to employees, the company announced it would no longer tie executive bonuses to diversity metrics or participate in an annual ranking of corporate LGBTQ policies. This move aligns with other companies like Harley-Davidson, Tractor Supply, and John Deere, which have also reduced their progressive workplace efforts. Conservative commentator Robby Starbuck has claimed credit for influencing these decisions.
Cattle on Feed Report out this afternoon… USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon. A survey done by the Wall Street Journal shows expectations of steady cattle on feedlots, placements of 104.2% compared to year-ago and marketings 108.2% of year-ago as of August 1.
Wholesale beef prices continue to stabilize… After falling most of last week, wholesale beef prices have stabilized for most of this week, with Choice firming 78 cents and Select rising 95 cents on Thursday. Traders continue to anticipate cash market weakness into the fall despite relative strength in October last year, though trade following this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report could entice packers to hold out for higher bids.
Pork cutout slide halts… After facing sustained weakness most of the week, wholesale pork prices bounced on Thursday, with cutout firming $1.88 to $96.43. All cuts rose aside from picnics, which was the opposite of Wednesday’s price action. That likely modestly supported cash hog prices, as the decline in the index slowed to 38 cents to $88.83 as of Aug. 21.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 8:00 a.m. Food Price Outlook — ERS
· 1:30 p.m. Pro Farmer U.S. corn, soybean crop estimates
· 2:00 p.m. Cattle on Feed — NASS
· 2:00 p.m. Chickens and Eggs — NASS
· 2:00 p.m. Cold Storage — NASS
· 2:00 p.m. Peanut Prices — NASS
· 2:30 p.m. Commitments of Traders — CFTC