GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Wheat: 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each saw muted volatility on low volume overnight. Wheat did see an uptick in buying activity in early morning trade. Outside markets are mixed this morning as the equity markets continue to see heightened volatility. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged while the U.S. dollar index is around 75 points higher.
The U.S. is set to import the least amount of sugar from Mexico since 2008 as droughts and impending tariffs disrupt trade, Bloomberg reports. A proposed 25% duty under the North American trade agreement has already stalled future shipments, pushing U.S. buyers toward higher-taxed imports from other countries like Brazil. Once Mexico’s top sugar buyer, the U.S. is now sourcing more from alternative markets as supply constraints and trade barriers make Mexican sugar less competitive.
Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad signaled on Thursday that upcoming trade negotiations with the U.S. are likely to be prolonged, particularly focusing on sugar and ethanol. Speaking to GloboNews TV, Haddad said the U.S. would likely bring up ethanol, while Brazil would counter with sugar. His comments come amid broader concerns over potential U.S. tariff hikes, with a White House fact sheet already citing Brazil’s ethanol tariffs as unfair. The issue has drawn attention from Brazil’s Energy and Mining Minister Alexandre Silveira, who called any new U.S. tariffs on Brazilian ethanol “unreasonable,” pointing to a history of joint negotiation on ethanol and sugar trade.
President Trump said the U.S. will sign a minerals and natural resources deal with Ukraine shortly and that his efforts to achieve peace in the Black Sea were going “pretty well” after his talks with Russian and Ukrainian leaders this week. The deal is seen as repayment for U.S. aid during the war and entails the Ukrainian government contributing 50% of state-owned natural resources to a U.S.-Ukraine managed reconstruction investment fund.
CORN: May corn futures saw action on both sides of unchanged overnight. Bulls are looking to build on recent strength and tackle resistance at $4.70 1/2, which is reinforced by psychological $4.75 resistance. Support comes in at $4.65 1/2, the 10-day moving average, then $4.58 3/4.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures gave up a portion of Thursday’s gain overnight. Support lies at $10.06 1/2 then the psychological $10.00 mark on continued selling pressure. Resistance stands at $10.13 3/4, the 10-day moving average, then this week’s high of $10.21 3/4.
WHEAT: May SRW futures traded narrowly on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $5.60 1/2 before tackling resistance at $5.67 3/4. Support comes in at $5.52 1/4, which is quickly backed by the psychological $5.50 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength, though overbought conditions could limit gains after the open. Light cash cattle trade developed in Iowa/Minnesota mid-week at $202.00, down a little over $3 from last week’s average for the area. Wholesale beef ended Thursday mixed as Choice cutout fell $1.55 to $328.06 while Select climbed 68 cents to $309.36. Traders are looking to this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report from USDA, which is expected to show a March 1 feedlot population about 2% under its 2024 counterpart. A full list of expectations can be found in FTT here.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by discounts to the cash index. The CME lean hog index is down 21 cents to $89.20 as of March 19, marking a fresh for-the-move low and negating strength the past couple of days. Pork cutout continues to chop near recent lows as well, pressuring cash hog prices. Pork cutout climbed 67 cents to $95.86 Thursday, led by strength in bellies, butts and ribs, though movement was light at 258.31 loads, continuing the string of weaker grocer demand.