GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 8 to 10 cents lower; HRW 13 to 15 cents lower; 7 to 9 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat led weakness overnight with corn and soybeans following to the downside. Soybeans showed an increase in buying interest going into the break. Positioning is likely to drive a significant portion of trade today ahead of Monday’s reports. Front-month crude oil futures broke above psychological $70.00 resistance this morning while the dollar index is near unchanged. Equity futures saw heightened selling pressure following this morning’s PCE report while interest rates declined.
The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.3% month-over-month in February 2025, maintaining the same pace as the previous two months, and in line with expectations. Prices for goods rose 0.2%, below 0.5% in January and prices for services increased 0.4%, above 0.2% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the core PCE index (the Federal Reserves preferred inflation gauge), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.4%, the most since January 2024, above 0.3% in the previous month and forecasts of 0.3%.
U.S. tariffs do not threaten China’s grain supply because markets had already anticipated the Trump administration’s measures, a senior economist at the state-run National Grain and Oil Information Center said. “However, these trade policies will significantly impact global trade patterns,” Wang Liaowei said. “If the trade situation remains unchanged by this year’s U.S. soybean harvest season, it’s possible that China’s dependence on Brazilian soybeans could reach 80%.”
Brazil is expected to produce 172.1 MMT of soybeans this year, Agroconsult forecast after a nationwide crop tour of 13 states that began in January. The new estimate is 800,000 MT higher than its previous forecast. Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top crop state, is expected to produce more than 50 MMT of soybeans for the first time, Agroconsult said. With roughly 80% of the crop yet to be harvested in Rio Grande do Sul and the far southern state battling persistent drought, Agroconsult warned production potential could decline.
CORN: May corn futures saw continued selling pressure overnight. Bears are targeting the March 4 low of $4.42 1/2 on continued weakness. Bulls are eyeing resistance at the psychological $4.50 mark then $4.55 1/4 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures gave up a portion of Thursday’s gain overnight. The downside was capped by $10.10 1/2 support overnight, which is reinforced by support at $10.01. Resistance stands at $10.15 3/4, the 20-day moving average, then $10.25 on resurgent strength.
WHEAT: May SRW futures pushed to fresh contract lows overnight. Prices are working lower for the fifth consecutive session as bears eye support at $5.20, which is loosely backed by $5.15. Resistance stands at the psychological $5.25 mark then $5.32 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Cash cattle trade picked up mid-week at steady prices and the recent futures advance could give feedlots confidence to hold out for higher prices. While the outlook looks bullish, April futures finished Thursday near record highs, which could entice some profit-taking. Wholesale beef ended Thursday mixed as Choice cutout pulled back $2.58 to $335.72 while Select climbed $2.91 to $319.44.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher following yesterday’s bullish Hogs & Pigs Report from USDA. Every category was below pre-report estimates, showing a smaller hog herd than expected. Results of which can be found here. The CME lean hog index is unchanged at $89.13 as of March 26. Recent weakness in cutout is likely to weigh on the cash hog market. After topping the $100.00 mark midday Tuesday, cutout has fallen about $5.00. Cutout slid 81 cents to $94.84 Thursday, led lower by losses in bellies.